Obama's Resounding Victory, By The Numbers
With 97% of all precincts now reporting nationwide, here are the statistics on President-Elect Barack Obama's victory:
• Obama has just over 63 million votes, with John McCain at a little under 56 million. Obama's margin of victory, at over seven-million votes, could provide him with a very strong mandate to govern.
• In terms of percentages, Obama won the popular vote by six points, 52%-46% -- exactly where many of the final polls were showing the race going. Hopefully we will never have to hear about the Bradley Effect ever again.
• If we assume that Obama has won North Carolina, based on his small lead there with 100% of precincts reporting, and allocate any other close calls that some media outlets haven't projected yet in favor of the current vote-leader, then Obama will have won 364 electoral votes to John McCain 174 electoral votes. This is just shy of Bill Clinton's 370 votes in 1992 and 379 votes in 1996, and way ahead of what we've been used to from George W. Bush's close elections.
• According to the exit poll data, Obama won 43% of the white vote, a possible slight improvement on John Kerry's 41% in 2004. Obama won 95% of the black vote, which made up 13% of the electorate, compared to Kerry's 88% of black voters, who made up 11% of the total vote in 2004. Obama won Hispanics by a whopping 66%-32%, compared to Kerry's 53%-44% showing.
• The GOP's efforts to win Jewish voters by fear-mongering on Israel and Iran were a total failure. The exits show Obama with 78% of the Jewish vote, compared to Kerry's 74% showing in the 2004 exits. And along with Obama's victory in Florida, this represents a triumph for the Great Schlep.
This is EXCELLENT NEWS FOR HILLARY!
November 5, 2008 1:21 PM | Reply | Permalink
I regularly visit U.S. Embassies and Consulates as part of my work. I can't wait to see those new portraits greeting me as I walk in.
Finally I won't have to be ashamed of my country for choosing such horrible leadership.
November 5, 2008 1:24 PM | Reply | Permalink
Sarah Silverman in 2016?!?!
November 5, 2008 1:24 PM | Reply | Permalink
It's acutally 53 to 47 not 52 to 46. People need to learn how to use a calculator and not trust CNN or ABC to do percentages for them.
November 5, 2008 1:27 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'm guessing 52-46 accounts for 3rd party candidates getting 2%.
November 5, 2008 1:32 PM | Reply | Permalink
Maybe. But if you just total both numbers, and then divide each by the total, it's pretty clear. 53-47
November 5, 2008 1:34 PM | Reply | Permalink
Obama got 52% of the vote. McCain got 46% of the vote.
If you just total the votes received by Obama and McCain, you are leaving out votes for 3rd party candidates, and thus you are not dividing by 100% of the total votes cast.
Maybe CNN and ABC aren't completely worthless.
November 5, 2008 1:45 PM | Reply | Permalink
One other tidbit: It's now been 80 years and counting since a Republicans have won the White House without a Nixon or Bush on the ticket.
November 5, 2008 1:27 PM | Reply | Permalink
This is the first election cycle since the 70s where a Bush or a Dole weren't elected :)
November 5, 2008 3:14 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yay! Ding Dong the Witch is Dead - the Bradley Effect -
I'm with you, Eric - never again! LOL!
November 5, 2008 1:28 PM | Reply | Permalink
Very ni-i-i-ce numbers!
Now, I wish they would hurry the hell up and finish counting the votes here in NC! Good Gawd, Y'All!!!
November 5, 2008 1:30 PM | Reply | Permalink
According to Politico - President-elect Barack Obama is strongly considering Robert F. Kennedy Jr. to head the Environmental Protection Agency, a Cabinet post.
November 5, 2008 1:32 PM | Reply | Permalink
RFK Jr. is also allied with the anti-vaccination wingnuts. Not the best choice; we need someone science-based and not ideological.
November 5, 2008 1:58 PM | Reply | Permalink
Oh, hells yes!!!!!! Bobby Jr. is the MAN!!
November 5, 2008 1:59 PM | Reply | Permalink
"wingnuts" maybe concerned about an epidemic of Autism in this country?
Just try and use common sense before branding parents with sick kids "wingnuts". I agree that the issue is emotionally charged, but there are strong and sensible advocates on both sides.
That aside, the entire Dept. of Interior has been a disgrace under Bush. Someone like RFK, Jr. is exactly what we need to put Environmentalism back on the front burner in politics.
November 5, 2008 3:35 PM | Reply | Permalink
Any news on Palin's clothes?!
November 5, 2008 1:32 PM | Reply | Permalink
One of Sarah's spokespersons this morning said that some of the clothes were "lost".
November 5, 2008 1:46 PM | Reply | Permalink
OK, I don't wanna be accused of hiding from my predictions. Here's my lumps...
BigO takes AZ... bzzzt!
10+% popular margin... bzzzt!
140+ EV margin... ding!
November 5, 2008 1:36 PM | Reply | Permalink
We forgive you, ya big lug!
November 5, 2008 1:39 PM | Reply | Permalink
'Sall right. We like you, we really, really like you. :-)
November 5, 2008 2:42 PM | Reply | Permalink
Bradley effect? Hmmm, would that be Bill Bradley, the former senator and basketball player?
November 5, 2008 1:37 PM | Reply | Permalink
With Craig Robinson in the middle and Bill at shooting forward, Barack will lead the White House intramural league in assists.
I had no idea how tall Craig was until I saw him on the stage last night.
November 5, 2008 1:56 PM | Reply | Permalink
No, that'd be Milton Bradley, the board-game manufacturer.
November 5, 2008 1:58 PM | Reply | Permalink
Just figured it out -- it's World War Two General Omar Bradley.
November 5, 2008 2:01 PM | Reply | Permalink
You nailed it! The favorite weapon of Michael Dukakis: the Bradley Fighting Vehicle!
November 5, 2008 2:03 PM | Reply | Permalink
63 million Obama fans can't be wrong.
November 5, 2008 1:37 PM | Reply | Permalink
All I can say is, Thank you. Thank all of you for being a part of making this happen.
November 5, 2008 1:38 PM | Reply | Permalink
My feelings exactly. Thanks everyone, I have learned so much from this site, and you have all meant a lot to me.
November 5, 2008 1:50 PM | Reply | Permalink
The Intrade graph is still showing that McCain as a 1% chance of winning the election. I like those odds!
November 5, 2008 1:40 PM | Reply | Permalink
McCain has him right where he wants him!
November 5, 2008 1:54 PM | Reply | Permalink
>>With 97% of all precincts now reporting nationwide, here are the final statistics
huh? 3% of the votes don't count in the "final statistics?"
November 5, 2008 1:40 PM | Reply | Permalink
That's right. They only count in the final final statistics.
BTW, The Final Final is the name of a pretty decent sports bar here in SF, cor. Lombard & Baker.
November 5, 2008 2:01 PM | Reply | Permalink
Hey, this judging someone by the content of their character stuff worked!
Good on America!
November 5, 2008 1:50 PM | Reply | Permalink
InTrade should now predict the celebrity boxing opponent for Joe the Plumber.
November 5, 2008 1:54 PM | Reply | Permalink
I think Tonya Harding could take him!
November 5, 2008 2:22 PM | Reply | Permalink
He's probably got weak knees from all the working under sinks & stuff.
November 5, 2008 2:44 PM | Reply | Permalink
Dunno 'bout that.
FiveThirtyNate sorts the polls by predicted margin and annotates them according to whether they include cellphone users.
While there's a bunch of polls at 5-7 points (BigO margin), there's another bunch around 10 points. The 10-point group includes cellphone users, while the 6-point group does not.
So... is the Bradley Effect limited to cellphone users?
November 5, 2008 1:55 PM | Reply | Permalink
Would that make it an iPhone Effect?
November 5, 2008 2:45 PM | Reply | Permalink
Would have been an even more perfect evening had Franken won (which he could over time if the recounts prove he did after the MI absentee ballots are finally counted) and "Batshit" Bachmann and "Jailbird" Teddy Stevens lost.
At least Sununu and Libby Dole were kicked to the curb!
November 5, 2008 1:57 PM | Reply | Permalink
My friends, does this mean McCain has seven million less "friends" than Obama??
November 5, 2008 1:59 PM | Reply | Permalink
Actually, I think we ought to coin the term "Obama effect" for the people who said they were voting for McCain but voted for Obama.
Sure, there's no evidence that such an effect actually exists, but why let reality intrude on a good story?
November 5, 2008 2:03 PM | Reply | Permalink
Garrison Keillor calls that the Palin Effect: http://www.salon.com/opinion/keillor/2008/10/29/tulsa/
November 5, 2008 3:02 PM | Reply | Permalink
Let's have a here, here for New England.
Of the 65 counties in New England (which holds a unanimous Democratic caucus of Congressmen), only ONE county (Piscataquis County of ME---it's smallest county, with 54% of the county's 8,000 voters) broke for McCain. That is 64 of 65 counties going for Obama.
In 2004, Bush won at least 19 counties in New England.
In contrast, there are 102 counties in Illinois. 52 (yes, a majority) tilted McCain.
Something interesting is happening in New England. Although always fairly safe territory for Democrats, it has also been a good place for moderate Republicans (especially Maine, New Hampshire, a smattering of Connecticut, and even rural areas of Vermont and the westernmost part of Massachusetts. See: G.H.W. Bush, Bill Weld, Mitt Romney, and the senators from Maine and NH).
My guess is that there are still some moderate or at least non-liberal thinkers out there. But with the deepening divide of political ideologies in America, perhaps moderate minded New Englanders are too smart to cede too much control to non-moderate Southerners and ruralites.
I suspect if this divide narrows, you may see some more moderation. But here's to hoping New England continues to be good political company!
November 5, 2008 2:03 PM | Reply | Permalink
Can I just say this, about Chris Shays? Good riddance!
CT kicked the last Republican to the curb last night.
Have we made up for Lieberman??
November 5, 2008 2:14 PM | Reply | Permalink
Have we made up for Lieberman??
No, and I say that as a former CT resident who remembers when he was the AG, and voted to put him in the Senate in the first place.
November 5, 2008 11:45 PM | Reply | Permalink
Anyone taking bets on the breed of the first puppy?
I'll wager on Labrador Retrieverish mix.
November 5, 2008 2:09 PM | Reply | Permalink
I think a lab is too big. Most dogs have been smaller breeds like spaniels and terriers haven't they?
November 5, 2008 2:20 PM | Reply | Permalink
I think they should go to the pound and get one. I'm a big fan of mutts. They lack credentials, but generally make excellent loving pets.
November 5, 2008 2:21 PM | Reply | Permalink
Michelle has already been quoted as saying it will be a rescue dog.
November 5, 2008 2:26 PM | Reply | Permalink
I vote for a beagle. They're used in medical research all over the country because of their size (medium, so easy to house but not so small as to make surgeries and such too difficult) so they could get a retired research animal.
November 5, 2008 2:50 PM | Reply | Permalink
Is 63 million the highest vote count anyone has ever gotten? I think so. As for Clinton's electoral margins, he got those due to Ross Perot taking so many votes from Papa Bush. Clinton never got a popular majority (not even close in '92). Carter was the last Dem to get a popular majority (50.1%). For interest, check out the electoral map that year. Obama's was the best Dem showing in the popular vote since LBJ's landslide (and not coincidentally he won a few states that last voted Dem that year). What a great day today is.
November 5, 2008 2:09 PM | Reply | Permalink
Bush got 62,040,606 in 2004 to Kerry's 59,028,109.
That basically means Kerry would have beat McCain too!
November 5, 2008 2:22 PM | Reply | Permalink
I figure you guys might enjoy this. I promise I will only make another one for Jan 20th :-)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=61CUZOJ70PY
November 5, 2008 2:12 PM | Reply | Permalink
One point not mentioned yet: Obama has won more votes than any other candidate for president in the history of the country.
November 5, 2008 2:39 PM | Reply | Permalink
If you guys are following the unresolved Senate races, check out my thread on the Oregon race:
http://www.talkingpointsmemo.com/talk/blogs/spectacle/2008/11/oregon-senate-seat----numbers.php#comments
November 5, 2008 2:45 PM | Reply | Permalink
Well, I would never have expected this:
http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/11/03/wallace.kennedy.obama/index.html
November 5, 2008 2:47 PM | Reply | Permalink
Wallace won when he ran again for governor of Alabama in the 80s in part because of the support of black people. This isn't much of a surprise to me. But thanks for the article; I enjoyed reading it and the comments.
November 5, 2008 5:20 PM | Reply | Permalink
Wallace won when he ran again for governor of Alabama in the 80s in part because of the support of black people. This isn't much of a surprise to me. But thanks for the article; I enjoyed reading it and the comments.
November 5, 2008 5:24 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'd like to congratulate all the Obama supporters. He has won decisively and his energetic supporters are largely responsible.
I can only hope that all Americans now see him as our President. He's earned it, he'll need our support. I trust he will keep an open mind to those who question or are critical of his policies as much as he enjoys the support of those who agree.
Onward...
November 5, 2008 2:47 PM | Reply | Permalink
Well, is the Bradley affect only about race? If it is simply about the polling issue of lying to pollsters because of being ashamed of the truth about your voting, then it is alive and well as evidenced by the passing of prop 8 here in california. The polls had this proposition being defeated before the election by the exact same margin that it won by. One supposses that it could be called the Joseph Smith Affect...
November 5, 2008 3:10 PM | Reply | Permalink
Btw, there's a story on the front page about why the AP held off on calling Georgia. They say there was an "unexpectedly low turnout" in Atlanta.
Yeah, riiiiight. Those gigantic lines we saw there for early voting, day after day? All just an illusion. Never happened. I tended to denigrated conspiracy theories (unless their about JFK), but somethin's rotten in the State of Georgia.
November 5, 2008 4:03 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'm not sure I would have called those 2000 and 2004 things "elections"....
A preview button! w00t!
November 5, 2008 5:31 PM | Reply | Permalink
Can we also claim a mandate moving forward that negative campaigning no longer has a place in politics?
Good God.
November 5, 2008 7:53 PM | Reply | Permalink
I would love to pronounce the Bradley effect dead, but before doing so I think it would be prudent to examine the disparity between between the wide margins in North Carolina and Virginia Senate races as compared to much tinner margins for Obama.
Anecdotally, while canvassing I encountered white Democrats who declared themselves "undecided" or who refused to disclose their preferences. I didn't think much of it until I saw the actual voting results, and then it made sense to think that these were otherwise Democratic voters who couldn't bring themselves to vote for a black man, but who didn't want to say so.
Admittedly, it is also true that in NC voters have been more likely to elect Democrats to statewide office than for national office. A small shift in that "gradient" might also account for some or all of the Senate/President voting disparity. But the Bradley effect might actually still be at work, at least in the south.
November 6, 2008 9:19 AM | Reply | Permalink