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Obama Dramatically Out-Organizing McCain In Virginia

The Washington Post has some amazing detail on the two campaigns' organizations in Virginia that dramatizes why Obama is outperforming in the state:

More than 10,000 volunteers are working for Obama in Virginia, according to the campaign...

Grass-roots activity in Virginia for McCain appears to be less energized. A recent two-day swing through every Northern Virginia campaign office for both candidates found crowds of volunteers for Obama on the phones, being trained to canvass and passing out signs, stickers and other material. McCain's offices were universally quiet, in some cases with just one or two field workers sitting at a counter or table and little foot traffic.

This week, just days before the election, Obama's Web site advertised more than 300 events in Northern Virginia; McCain's advertised seven.

To put this in perspective, consider that according to a WaPo poll earlier this week, more than half of Virginia voters said they'd been contacted by the Obama camp. Even better, among likely voters who'd been contacted but who hadn't heard from the McCain camp, Obama is leading 75%-22%.

This appears to be the story in other states, such as Indiana: Obama put an organization on the ground in "out of reach" red states, then worked and worked to make the race close or even take the lead, leaving the McCain camp scrambling to catch up.


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Here we're seeing the benefits of Obama's days as a community organizer. I think it was Michael Moore last night on Olbermann who said that it's sweet irony that while Republicans mocked Obama being a community organizer at their convention, it's that experience and know-how that will put the final nail in their coffin. Morons.

http://pufferfish.typepad.com/

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yeah, I saw that yesterday too. very good point.

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Agreed. Fall on their own swords.

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The very same thing I commented on yesterday. Sounds like a great blog issue for you, Puffer. Just wait'll you can throw on the frosting of a win!

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This appears to be the story in other states

Nate said the same of the McScum ground game. He posted yesterday about what he came away with from McScum's regional offices. http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/10/big-empty.html

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Obama's ground game sounds epic in scope - McCain is hoping Bush's ballyhooed 72-Hour Ground Game will come out for him this weekend (largely Evangelicals).

I question the viability of such a huge ground game in future elections though, because I assume that there will be further campaign finance reforms that will cap spending on campaigns.

I could see roles reversed in 2012 as far as fund raising as Obama will be the incumbent, and the challenger will be the well-funded insurgent.

I mean Obama has probably spent $80M+ on ground game alone.

(yep, I'm counting my eggs as chickens today)

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And Bush's ground game barely got him the win. Now it's up against something much bigger than what Kerry had. Add in the report that McCain is scaling back on investment in ground game and it should be very interesting to watch.

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VA is the key to victory. If Obama locks up VA, McCain could win PA, OH, NC, FL and MO and still come up short.

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And Rass' internals for the PA give you insight as to the sudden drop in Obama's support: apparently African Americans are having second thoughts. His support amongst African Americans went from 93-5 in the last poll, to 80-20 in this poll.

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That's hilarious. Poll 600 people and, variance being variance, you get fewer African Americans than their percentage would suggest. Eight of them are hacked because your intrrupting dinner or just either decide to mess with the pollster's heads for fun or are suspicious about whether this is on the up and up and go contrary. Maybe one of them doesn't have her glasses on and pushes the wrong button. One more is a real black Republican. Weight the subsample up so that it matches the real percentage of African Americans in the population and, presto, flashing blue light on Drudge . . . Developing . . .

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You should be a screen script writer. Loved the Drudge's blue light. LOL.

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In 2004, 85% of African American voters in Pennsylvania chose John Kerry. That's pretty much the only comment I'll make right now on Ras's latest.

Well, except to say that he's got a rep to maintain, so we'll see if this is the last poll he does in the state. I'm doubting it.

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With VA minus PA he'd need another 5 EVs - presumably NV. But I agree he has many possiblities, even without PA.

Don't think it matters, frankly. I think he's going to get PA plus several other states, including some unexpected ones.

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You are correct--he would need Nevada to pull out the tight victory (270-268). I like Obama's chances--especially given where Ohio is right now.

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or New Mexico - both have 5 electoral votes.

My scenario says Obama is secure in Mi,NH,Vt,Ma,RI,Ct,NY,De,NJ,Md,DC,Mi,Oh,Il,Mn,Co,Ca,Or,Wa, and Hi for a total of 250 electoral votes.

If Florida swings, he gets 277

If Pennsylvania swings, he gets 271.

If Virginia swings, he's short and needs both Nevada and New Mexico to get 273

If North Carolina swings, he needs either Nevada or New Mexico to get 270.

Obama game is loose has room to play, but McCain's too structured and rigid with little room to maneuver - the all or nothing approach, like cover all bingo.

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any new VA polls

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Five Thirty Eight did a great analysis of McCain's ground game, actually the lack of it, complete with dramatic photos:

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/10/big-empty.html

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just got done canvassing in vienna, virginia.

we contact two types of voters here: "sporadic" and "persuasion."

"sporadic" voters are the ones who have voted dem in the past, but not regularly, i.e., they haven't been great about getting to the polls.

"persuasion" voters are those who aren't necessarily dems -- they need to be persuaded, in other words.

while i typically don't make much contact during my saturday morning canvasses, today i had one "persuasion" voter tell me he had already voted the straight dem ticket already here in virginia. another "persuasion" house didn't have anyone home, but had an Obama/Biden yard sign. that's a good sign. :)

another persuasion voter told me that he was intending to vote for obama for president, but for the republicans the rest of the way (i'm not too concerned about that, since mark warner is going to slam-dunk jim gilmore for senate anyway). but the fact that this voter is republican for the entire ticket EXCEPT for president gives you a sense of what's going on here.

among the "sporadic" voters with whom i made contact (only a couple, but my canvass list is rapidly dwindling -- only 14 doors today), all were going to vote for obama. i think i talked two of them into heading up to vote absentee in person (today is the last day).

the smaller canvass lists are a great sign, too -- it means that we've either pegged them as solid obama supporters (and they WILL get a GOTV contact on the 4th ... and will continue to get them until they say they've voted), or that they have already voted.

to paraphrase crystal gayle, "don't it make my red state blue ..."

:)

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p.s. when i say my canvass list has dwindled, what i mean is that 6 weeks ago, my lists contained between 50 and 60 doors. now it's barely over 10.

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Let me as a Californian (Bay Area which will go 75-25 Obama), I appreciate the hard work you and others have put into VA.

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Encouraging news, and kudos on your GOTV efforts.

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Thanks for all the grunge work. Your efforts will pay off big time.

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I live in True Blue Maryland. This morning two men came to our door, having gotten off a church bus in the road. They were canvassing for McCain. This makes no sense to me, especially since we have Obama signs out front and a Dick Cheney pumpkin and McCain doesn't stand a chance in MD. Virginia is 20 minutes away. I gave them some leftover Halloween candy and sent them on their way.

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Glad to see this.

Glad that people seem to be taking advantage of early voting.

Dismayed to read stories about the aunt in Boston. Wonder who brings it up first? McCain, or Palin?

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Obama's spokesperson Bill Burton said this morning:

"Senator Obama has no knowledge of her status but obviously believes that any and all appropriate laws be followed."

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You betcha, we are turning over every crook and nanny,or is it every nook, oh never mind 3 days and a wake up!

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Obama's setting up the infrastructure so that in four years, (hopefully) it won't take too long to get up and running again...

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just to bring a smile
http://ny-image3.etsy.com/il_430xN.41195415.jpg

--Savage

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Thank you for that Savage.

We are all Batman and Obama fans in this household.

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This proves that Barack Obama will put the fate of our nation back in the hands of its people.

As our Founding Fathers intended.

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How about this, today the early voting lines in Arlington, VA are over a mile long and people are waiting over 3 1/2 hours just for early voting! The strategists who have questioned the enthusiasm gap are in for quite a surprise!

Let's all keep pushing to turn our VA Blue and put Obama in the White House!!!!

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Also the guy leading the Obama organization for Sterling, VA where I live (outer DC burbs) is here from Missouri working to turn VA blue. I strongly suspect that this is a strong pattern here in Virginia and other key states that Obama is trying to turn.

I also actually saw my first sign today for Jim Gilmore who is running against Mark Warner. It simply had his name and then said "Drill Here, Drill Now". That has to be one of the worst roadside campaign signs I've ever seen. My first thought was, "there's oil in Tyson's Corner, VA"?

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Has the Army of Virginia been cut off?

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I put in a couple of hours of phone calling this afternoon at the field office in Bethesda, Maryland. Previously I'd done calling to Virginia there, and as I left they were returning to calling Virginia, but during my couple of hours it was Ohio.

The astounding thing was, when another volunteer sat down across from me, he said that he had been out canvassing in Virginia, the Manassas area, and had expected to be doing that all day, but they finished. They literally finished knocking on all the doors in the area. There will be more door knocking there again before it's over, but for this round they had literally gotten it all done. While I'm not that experienced in election campaigns, I am involved in grassroots work professionally, and actually finishing everything you intend to is something almost unheard of in grassroots work, holy grail level.

As far as the campaign office goes, I was going to use my laptop to leave a workstation open for some other volunteer, but all the network jacks were in use. When I left, the workstation I was on immediately got put to use by another volunteer, and there was a line of volunteers waiting for workstations to open up for them. The cell phones were getting so much use that you had to plug in the charger while you called, because there was no time for them to sit and recharge. This is in addition to people's own cell phones that they brought. It's not that they didn't have plenty of computers and telephones, and it's not a small facility, there were just so many people there.

By no means should this be interpreted as suggesting that anyone able to volunteer in Virginia doesn't need to do so, however. It's not over till it's over, as they say.

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This is why we need a 50-state strategy in every election.

Even states that we lost by 5-10 points (or more) in the last election have many, many Democrats in them. Combined with a decent organization and a viable candidate, these Democrats can be harnessed into a potent force for the campaign. Real phone calls (not robocalls), knocks on doors, people on the street-corner, neighbors and co-workers talking to people -- these can make the different when mail and TV ads can't.

Even if we never win Idaho or Texas, we can do better in House races and of course state-level races. And we can make the other side have to spend more money defending their territory.

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