More Polls Show Obama Leading In Bush States
A new set of state polls show Barack Obama leading in three Bush 2004 states -- one down to the wire, one by a decent margin, and one by a landslide.
A new SurveyUSA poll of Virginia shows that this state is a tight race going into the final days of the campaign, with Barack Obama up by just four points. The numbers: Obama 50%, McCain 46%, with a ±3.9% margin of error. A week ago, Obama had a heftier lead of nine points, 52%-43%. Today's poll has the same margin as the new Mason-Dixon poll, which has Obama up 47%-43%, although with a smaller number of undecideds.
In New Mexico, which narrowly went to Bush in 2004, today's Albuquerque Journal poll has Obama ahead by eight points, 51%-43%, similar to last night's SurveyUSA poll with Obama up 52%-45%. A month ago, the Journal's poll had Obama up 45%-40%.
The new Selzer poll of Iowa gives Obama a massive 17-point lead, 54%-37%, in a state that narrowly went to Bush in 2004, compared to a 52%-40% Obama lead in September. Obama has consistently led McCain here, despite McCain still putting some decent money into the state.
Late Update: It's also worth noting that the Columbus Dispatch's final Ohio poll, which has had a perfect track record in modern political history of predicting the winner of the state's electoral votes, has Obama up 52%-46%.
Late Late Update: Mason-Dixon also has some more polls showing Obama and McCain splitting seven key Bush states by close margins, which would give Obama the White House if those numbers were to hold up on Election Day.
THIS
November 2, 2008 12:43 PM | Reply | Permalink
IS
November 2, 2008 12:46 PM | Reply | Permalink
STUPENDOUS
November 2, 2008 12:47 PM | Reply | Permalink
NEWS
November 2, 2008 12:49 PM | Reply | Permalink
FOR McSAME!!!
November 2, 2008 12:51 PM | Reply | Permalink
AND PRINCESS BARRACUDA SPARKLESTARDUST!
November 2, 2008 12:52 PM | Reply | Permalink
...aka "Bible Spice" lol
November 2, 2008 1:01 PM | Reply | Permalink
Bible Spice is really the best.
November 2, 2008 1:04 PM | Reply | Permalink
I hadn't heard Bible Spice, that's awesome. My other favorite is "Caribou Barbie."
November 2, 2008 3:30 PM | Reply | Permalink
O/t here but I can't comment on the Wright ad post.
I'm getting Rev. Wright ads on MSNBC and CNN in Utah,so I guess they've done a national cable buy.
November 2, 2008 12:57 PM | Reply | Permalink
Are you sure it's the GOP ad, not the 527's?
November 2, 2008 1:04 PM | Reply | Permalink
Mason Dixon,over past month
-------- O - M --
10/02 -- 45%-48% -3
10/22 -- 47%-45% +2
11/01 -- 47%-44% +3
November 2, 2008 1:16 PM | Reply | Permalink
Off tpoic: I am watching Fareed Zakaria on CNN. His show is about world affairs. Right now, they are subtly savaging McCain's foreign policy stance.
November 2, 2008 1:20 PM | Reply | Permalink
Springfield, MO...
McCain: D'oh! :)
November 2, 2008 1:20 PM | Reply | Permalink
They just don't realize the wave that coming in two days. They just don't realize how big it will be. That is fine though, when it comes it will be one for the history books.
November 2, 2008 1:31 PM | Reply | Permalink
The tpm tracking poll average ignores the most accurate pollster in 2004 -- IBD/TIPP. Today, TIPP is reporting a McCain surge so that Barack only leads by 2.1% now.
Survey USA reports that McCain has gained 5 points this week in VA, leading 17% among VA whites now. Obama leads by 4 today according to SUSA.
Tuesday looks like another long night with Obama having the edge -- only needing to get VA or CO unless McCain gets PA.
November 2, 2008 1:37 PM | Reply | Permalink
How will you spin the landslide? There is nothing you can't do about it.
November 2, 2008 1:41 PM | Reply | Permalink
O Noesssss! Nate Silver has moved McLame's win percentage from 2.6 % all the way up to 3.8%!
We're doooooooooooooooooooooooomed!!!!!
November 2, 2008 1:44 PM | Reply | Permalink
4 years ago the last USA Gallup poll had Bush / Kerry 49% / 47 %
Gallup has Obama 51% % 43% in the old model.
November 2, 2008 1:39 PM | Reply | Permalink
It is all about GOTV right now more than anything else.
November 2, 2008 1:52 PM | Reply | Permalink
It's also worth noting that the Columbus Dispatch's final Ohio poll, which has had a perfect track record in modern political history of predicting the winner of the state's electoral votes, has Obama up 52%-46%.
It should also be noted that the Columbus Dispatch Poll is a legend in bad polling. They have predicted 20 point wins that have ended in 30 point losses, not in a Presidential race, but still... They are, in 538's poll rankings, the absolute worst pollster in the country by a long way. Based on all the other polls, I suspect that Obama will win Ohio. But if I had to go by the Columbus Dispatch alone I would be very worried right now. They are bad enough that you are just better off ignoring them
November 2, 2008 1:53 PM | Reply | Permalink
OT, on Meet the Press today John Kerry reportedly "called Lieberman his 'friend' who he'd like to see return to the Democratic party." At least this is what Time's summary of Sunday shows reported.
http://thepage.time.com/sunday-show-summary-for-november-2-2008/
So folks -- what do you think of rehabilitating Joe?
November 2, 2008 2:51 PM | Reply | Permalink
I say make him grovel, big time.
November 2, 2008 3:39 PM | Reply | Permalink
Tell him to fuck the hell off. His buddy Kerry can go be friends with him across the aisle.
November 2, 2008 4:22 PM | Reply | Permalink
Just finished canvassing in a fairly conservative suburban area of NC. It's 50/50, I'd guess. Only had one person who was hostile, one Christian woman who hates Bush but can't quite come around to Obama or the godless Kay Hagan. Other than that, I was reasonably encouraged. The key here really is going to be getting new voters to the polls on Tuesday. I have signed up to drive. Please, everybody, let's do what we can.
November 2, 2008 3:37 PM | Reply | Permalink
The Boss for Obama live on www.cnn.com then Obama to speak
November 2, 2008 5:24 PM | Reply | Permalink
I've been following this election for weeks now, and oh what a change a man like Barack Obama should be able to bring along. Not only in the US, but worldwide... and oh what kind of morons are allowed to be VP candidate - or P sorry old chap but the world needs lucidity from here on, I'm sure you'll understand. Just keep that woman out of the office - that would be a real disaster. Here in Belgium, I'll get so drunk if Obama makes it. What a worldwide relief it will be when the reps will NOT have won these elections.
November 2, 2008 5:47 PM | Reply | Permalink