McCain And Palin Spending Remaining Time In Bush States
The remaining schedules for all the candidates are pretty revealing.
Today, John McCain is in Virginia and Pennsylvania. Sarah Palin is hitting Florida, North Carolina And Virginia.
On Monday, the final day of campaigning, McCain will hit Florida, Virginia, Pennsylvania, Indiana, New Mexico, Nevada, and finally, his home state of Arizona, according to a McCain campaign memo blasted out last night. Palin will visit Ohio, Missouri, Iowa, Colorado, Nevada and Alaska.
As you can see, this means that with the sole exception of McCain's visit to Pennsylvania, McCain and Palin are devoting their time to a dozen states that are either battlegrounds carried by Bush or were previously reliable red states. (No word on tomorrow's schedule yet.)
What about Barack Obama and Joe Biden? According to what we have of their schedules (we've got all of them from today through Monday except Biden tomorrow) neither man is spending a single second in a Kerry state -- save perhaps when they make flight transfers.
Instead, both are campaigning in Bush states from here on out: Nevada, Colorado, Missouri, Indiana, Ohio, Florida, North Carolina, and Virginia.
I have a feeling somewhere in the mix, Obama will make a brief stop in PA.
November 1, 2008 10:50 AM | Reply | Permalink
Why?
November 1, 2008 11:01 AM | Reply | Permalink
Should we feel worried about PA? I feel slightly worried. Maybe Rendell has got to me...
November 1, 2008 11:14 AM | Reply | Permalink
I don't think we should feel worried about PA. The main focus of the McCain campaign over the past few days has been advancing the false narrative of McCain gaining in the polls and closing the gap, as if he'd been drafting all along and was about to take the lead in the straightaway. This, of course, is bullshit and a predictable messaging and spin attempt by a losing campaign. The more vociferous the McCain camp claims they are catching up the worse their internal pools are looking. Or, a better indicator: if Dick Morris says McCain will come from behind and win, he surely won't.
November 1, 2008 11:26 AM | Reply | Permalink
What are you talking about? Reputable polls are showing McCain moving up rapidly in PA. This is not GOP hype. Muhlenberg has Obama up by 8 points; Rasmussen by 4. Two weeks ago, when some polls had Obama up by 12-15 points, Gov. Rendell was warning that those were inflated number and that Obama was probably up by no more than 5 or 6. He described this lead as "uncomfortable", expressed concern that McCain and Palin were "camping out" in his state, and strongly urged Obama to concentrate more attention on PA. That was two weeks ago. If Obama's lead has shrunk to 4 to 8 points, I wonder where Rendell thinks the race actually stands now? Why is Obama spending so much time chancing long-shot states when PA -- absolutely crucial to his chances -- could be slipping out of his hands. If McCain wins in FL and OH -- and these are very close races -- the loss of PA would be the nightmare scenario come true. If someone has a better (and I mean a statistical/analytical and not just an anecdotal or wishful) understanding of what's going on, please talk me down. BTW, AP's story about Obama's Kenyan aunt's illegal presence in the U.S. sounds like it might be pumped up into the closing xenophobic noise of this campaign. Wonder how that's going to affect "Alabama" PA?
November 1, 2008 12:09 PM | Reply | Permalink
And apparently the spin is working. At least you'll only have to stress a few more days. Here's Nate Silver's take on the PA race from yesterday:
"Is Pennsylvania John McCain's last, best hope?Perhaps it is. But that speaks as much to McCain's problems elsewhere on the map as any success he has had in the Keystone State. Pennsylvania does seem to be narrowing a bit: the Muhlenberg / Morning Call tracker is now down to "only" a 10-point lead for Senator Obama, while a Strategic Vision poll puts the race at O +5. Strategic Vision has had a Republican lean and some very erratic polling in Pennsylvania all year, so our model treats that result as the equivalent of a +7 or a +8. Nevertheless, with little progress being made elsewhere, McCain will take what he can get."
Pollster.com has PA polls average today as 8.8 ahead for Obama. Don't fall for the spin.
November 1, 2008 12:22 PM | Reply | Permalink
Okay, now, one day later, Muhlenberg has Obama up by "only" eight points, a two point loss. Nate Silver's remark of yesterday does not, of course, take into account today's Rasmussen poll in PA, and Silver, I should note, has a lot of respect for Rasmussen. So if we return to Gov. Rendell, whose hands-on expertise in PA politics trumps Silver's, Muhlenberg's, and Rasmussen's put together, where exactly does a 4 to 8 point lead leaves us? Perhaps within the margin of error with threes day to go and a juicy xenophobic/racial "scandal" brewing in the wings?
To repeat, if Rendell was prepared to cut Obama's previous 12-15 point lead in half in order to arrive at a more realistic estimate of where the PA race stood, what, I wonder, does he now think of this 4 to 8 point lead? My hunch is that he probably isn't bursting with confidence right now. Of course, he might just be a closet GOP shill out to bamboozle impressionable worry trolls like me. Sure, that must explain it. Whew! I feel much better.
November 1, 2008 12:48 PM | Reply | Permalink
That Ras PA poll has Obama winning 80 percent of the black vote. As if one in five will vote for McCain. Utter nonsense. Yes, it's closer. But my fair state belongs to Obama. He'll take it by 3-4-5.
November 1, 2008 12:55 PM | Reply | Permalink
That sounds something like saying: not to worry; we'll miss having a fatal car wreck by 3, 4, 5 feet easy. Hair-raising. If the race is really coming down to a win as narrow as that, then my worries seem well-founded. Remember, people have been touting 12 to 15 points up to now. Cock-a-doodle-do!
"Dear Barack, Get your ass back here! Yours, Gov. Rendell."
November 1, 2008 1:09 PM | Reply | Permalink
First, think about the premise of your worry. "The safe Obama margins in Penn were overstated which is exposed by these recent tighter margin polls." This is a fair assessment but it still isn't much reason to panic. If you are to believe a twelve point margin is overstated, then why wouldn't you also believe the four point margin is understated to a similar degree?
Second, instead of focusing on the margin, look at the levels of support individually. Up until recently, Obama has been hovering around 50 to 53%. Looking at these numbers skeptically, let's say they were overstated by 3 to 5%, so Obama would actually be at around 47 to 49%, just where the recent polls place him. For McCain, most of his numbers before his recent lift were hovering around 40%. Let's also say they were understated by 3 to 5% putting him around 43 to 45%, just about where the recent polls place him. Sure, you can say the margin of error puts this within reach but that ignores the history. Obama's support has been flirting with 50% for over a month now while McCain has been fluctuating just above 40%. Now the race is tightening as undecideds start to break for McCain and maybe there is some slight loss of support for Obama, but would you really expect the margin of error to favor McCain at this point?
You can also bring up that the bleakest scenario of Obama 47%, McCain 45% leaving 8% undecided. And if 65% of these break for McCain, he wins 50.2% to 49.8%! OMFG, you're right! Well, maybe not so emphatically. The level of pessimism required to get to this conclusion is a bit excessive. But let's grant it. The projected result by polls alone would call Penn for McCain by a hair. That is just the polls though. From there it would be about getting that support to vote. Given all that we know about Obama's ground game as it compares to McCain's, about the vast enthusiasm gap, the differences in available funds, and the longer history of Pennsylvania going blue, the chances of McCain winning Pennsylvania are extremely thin.
All of this ignores everything else, too. This worry seems to presume that Obama will lose in Florida, North Carolina, Ohio, Missouri, and possibly even Nevada and/or New Hampshire. After all McCain has done to screw up his chances at victory, and being in their very desperate position overall, do you really think they are going to win every single tossup state, take a couple more lean Obama states, and steal Pennsylvania?
There are just three days left. This isn't a car crash. A close win is still a win. Obama is extremely well-positioned to win. No one is coasting.
November 1, 2008 2:29 PM | Reply | Permalink
Thank you for that very thorough and reassuring post. I do feel better now. --As long as this damn illegal-aunt-from- Kenya thing doesn't become a feeding frenzy. I notice it's found its way onto the front of NYTimes and WaPo. Gadz, I will be so happy when this is over.
Thanks again for your careful and intelligent response! I do appreciate it.
November 1, 2008 3:37 PM | Reply | Permalink
After Wright, Ayers, Khalidi, Hitler, Marx, Superman, Jesus, Paris Hilton, and all the other crazy slurs through association that Obama has weathered, I don't think his aunt is going to take him down.
November 1, 2008 4:35 PM | Reply | Permalink
Also, I see that the story is mutating into a question about who in ICE illegally leaked confidential information from a case file. The leak itself is far more suspicious than Obama's unwitting relation to an illegal alien. Of course, the smear-masters will try to suggest that Obama aided and abetted his aunt's illegal presence, perhaps used his influence to get her into Boston public housing despite her being listed for deportation, and even took campaign contributions from her with the full knowledge that she is an foreign national. You know how they go on. I just hope this isn't picked up by the Sunday talk shows and from there parlayed into Monday's headlines and news chat.
November 1, 2008 5:08 PM | Reply | Permalink
That Ras PA poll has Obama winning 80 percent of the black vote. As if one in five will vote for McCain. Utter nonsense. Yes, it's closer. But my fair state belongs to Obama. He'll take it by 3-4-5.
November 1, 2008 12:58 PM | Reply | Permalink
Don't worry. Listen to Nate Silver on 538:
Saturday, November 1, 2008
Pennsylvania Sanity Check
Suppose that Barack Obama were to concede Pennsylvania's electoral votes. Literally, concede them. Throw 'em back, like a Chase Utley home run at a Cubs' game. How often would he still win the election?
...89.0% of the time, according to our most recent run of simulations, along with another 2.4% of outcomes that ended in ties. This is because in the vast majority of our simulations, Obama either:
a) was winning at least 291 electoral votes, meaning that he could drop Pennsylvania's 21 and still be over 270, and/or
b) was winning at least 270 electoral votes, while already being projected to lose Pennsylvania in the first place.
(a) was much, much more common than (b), obviously.
November 1, 2008 12:36 PM | Reply | Permalink
Let me get this straight. Now people are seriously contemplating an Obama win without PA? I suppose that's assuming a win in OH or FL or both. Since we're tossing states left and right, how about subtracting OH, FL, and PA from Obama's column -- where does that leave his chances?
No sweat, with NC, ND, AZ, and GA, we got it cinched!
November 1, 2008 1:40 PM | Reply | Permalink
I think they are suddenly remembering the Alamo.
November 1, 2008 10:52 AM | Reply | Permalink
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zlfKdbWwruY
it's my anchor this weekend......lol....
November 1, 2008 10:54 AM | Reply | Permalink
Theworld will indeed celebrate with us on Nov. 5th. Thanks for the link.
November 1, 2008 11:12 AM | Reply | Permalink
Maybe Obama is also campaigning for a popular vote mandate.
November 1, 2008 10:58 AM | Reply | Permalink
THIS IS EXCELLENT NEWS!
FOR MCcAIN!
~
November 1, 2008 11:00 AM | Reply | Permalink
and i think he WILL GET a popular vote mandate...if you look at the state polls, the blue states are amazingly in favor of obama.......states like california, ny, etc......with huge voter bases......
November 1, 2008 11:01 AM | Reply | Permalink
Palin can waste all the time and money they want in Colorado and New Mexico - there's no fucking way they win those states.
November 1, 2008 11:06 AM | Reply | Permalink
OT, but 35% of GA's registered voters participated in early voting and AAs made up 35% of those voters...they made up 25% of the 2004 electorate.
November 1, 2008 11:07 AM | Reply | Permalink
I've posted this so many times, but it's such a perfect picture of what is going on, AFAIC:
One precinct in predominantly AA Oak Cliff, in Dallas, saw 4000 people on primary night. That same precinct turned out exactly 58 people in '04.
That's what is going on!
November 1, 2008 11:13 AM | Reply | Permalink
Our County clerk estimates that over 25% of registered voters will have voted early this election, numerically (because of all of the new voters) more than voted in 2004!
November 1, 2008 12:15 PM | Reply | Permalink
Sounds like a plan to me! Stretch then to the max with all the anvils in sight and those found along the way! McCain in six states or is six airports in six states? Yeah, right!
November 1, 2008 11:13 AM | Reply | Permalink
I've been here in Reno, NV for the last few days monitoring the polls during part of the early vote. Yesterday, the last of the early vote days, I was at the University of Nevada - Reno. It was an amazing sight watching over 1,000 people vote, most of whom were young voters, many for their first time.
I've been around for a long time and this election and campaign have been not only fascinating, but inspirational.
November 1, 2008 11:15 AM | Reply | Permalink
I've been getting robo call from unknown sources here in PA telling me that Obama eats children - essentially. And calls from Obama campaign with human beings on the end asking if I will be making it to the polls and if I need a ride.
What a miserable lot these republicans are.
November 1, 2008 11:15 AM | Reply | Permalink
Isn't that the truth?
They actively work against democracy every fucking election!
The whole party should be tried for treason. I think it should be treason to fuck with elections in a democracy, I really do.
November 1, 2008 11:18 AM | Reply | Permalink
And someone posted last night that s/he heard a rumor one of their robocalls say if McScum loses "Real Americans" will be turned into frogs on 11/5 at noon eastern time.
I wouldn't be surprised if it's true...
November 1, 2008 11:42 AM | Reply | Permalink
And how about Murdoch's London paper and AP slinging the illegal immigration story on Obama's long-lost aunt from Kenya. Ugh!
November 1, 2008 11:23 AM | Reply | Permalink
We're going canvassing here in Portland today, and even though I know McCain is about to be beaten like a drum, I'm playing it out like we're down by 20.
I want to see McCain humiliated and his "style" of campaigning repudiated for a generation.
These people really deserve to lose.
November 1, 2008 11:18 AM | Reply | Permalink
Rendell sounds like he is taking Pennsylvania personally. I think he will think he has failed if Obama loses Pennsylvania. I wonder if the Obama campaign paid the street money?
November 1, 2008 11:25 AM | Reply | Permalink
Umm.... McCain campaigning in Bush states is offense. If McCain wins all Bush states then he wins. If Obama only wins all Kerry states, then he loses.
By this logic if Kerry only won one state, McCain would be on defense if he only campaigned in the other 49.
I agree that McCain's back is against the wall, but this line of analyzing it never made sense to me.
November 1, 2008 11:28 AM | Reply | Permalink
No, If McCain's strategy boils down to "hold the 2004 Bush states" that is a defensive strategy - holding ground you previously claimed.
November 1, 2008 11:54 AM | Reply | Permalink
If that is the case then offense and defense have no meaning. Given your interpretation, a candidate could go after the exact same states in two separate years, yet one year he could be on offense and the other on defense.
To me, being on offense means the states you are actively campaigning in take you well above 270 electoral votes. Being on defense, means you are primarily in states around the 270 level or below. In the first case you are piling one. In the second, you are trying not to lose.
November 1, 2008 1:08 PM | Reply | Permalink
it seems your thinking on what is meant by offense and defense isn't clearly thought out.
being on defense means attempting to defend ground already gained.
being on offense means attempting to gain ground held by the opponent.
while it is true that if mccain were to successfully defend the bush states, he would win, that strategy by definition would be a defensive strategy.
November 1, 2008 12:57 PM | Reply | Permalink
Here's our Swiftboat, courtesy of AP--right on schedule:
http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/
November 1, 2008 11:34 AM | Reply | Permalink
I thought it was because he got all "Angry Black Man" on some Polish "Paparazzi" last night while he took his daughter to a Halloween party.
I mean Yahoo believes that's front page news worthy...
November 1, 2008 11:39 AM | Reply | Permalink
I remember reading that Obama will pay street money this time around.
I, too, think Obama should hit Pennsylvania one last time, however the Obama Camp has their internal polling.
Also both Clinton's could be used and might be in Pennsylvania for all we know. I know Romney and Giuliani are stumping for McCain in these final days (very likely to play good Republican soldiers with their eyes on 2012).
November 1, 2008 11:35 AM | Reply | Permalink
Anyone who believe that McWar will get 20% of the black vote in PA is on drug, This is not going to happen.
I am 100% confident that Senator Obama will win PA.
I believe the job loss will be reported on Monday morning, and it is not going to be a pretty picture.
November 1, 2008 11:41 AM | Reply | Permalink
Got a linkee? I thought Thursday was the official employment figure day and the Bush Regime regularly put off reporting until late Thursday or even Friday - cause they always lie and say the number of unemployed is lower than it really is -
November 1, 2008 12:00 PM | Reply | Permalink
Barack has been a pillar of confidence, cool, and level headedness this entire campaign. McCain represents desperation, low road politics and putting self and your own personal aspirations far in front of country. There is no limit to the depths John McCain won't sink to in an effort to win this election. He gave up country first a long time ago. Schwarzenegger, an alleged racist, who's been critical of Sarah Palin and John McCain, now is being utilized as McCain's saving grace. Politics are such a joke.
November 1, 2008 12:18 PM | Reply | Permalink
They obviously need to make a little extra effort re: PA. Unmistakable movement towards McCain in the past several days, and losing PA would make the 270 path more complicated and much more dependent on pulling off VA and Ohio or Florida.
November 1, 2008 12:25 PM | Reply | Permalink
Sorry Tena, I assume it was the first day of each month. Last month report was on October 3rd.
November 1, 2008 12:28 PM | Reply | Permalink
I am unbelieveably stressed out by this election and the possibility of losing that I feel nauseous. And I am not even running for office. I am going to my local Obama hq to make calls.
November 1, 2008 1:02 PM | Reply | Permalink
Does changing planes in a state count as hitting it?
November 1, 2008 1:57 PM | Reply | Permalink