Dems Taking Comfort From Early Results In Bellwether County
Democrats are cheered by early numbers showing that Obama holds a healthy lead in Vigo County, a place that one Dem described to us as "the most reliable bellwether county in the country."
"Vigo has only been wrong on president twice since 1892," this Dem enthuses.
A story in the Indy Star concurs, adding that of the most reliable bellwhether counties in the country, Vego "has voted closest to the national margin."
Right now, in Vigo County, Obama is up 57%-42%, with 80% reporting.
More numbers coming.
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Kos called Va for Obama -
November 4, 2008 7:11 PM | Reply | Permalink
Based on what? They're barely reporting there?
John
November 4, 2008 7:15 PM | Reply | Permalink
He corrected himself and uncalled VA.
Christ... Barnes on FOX is ripping the Early Voters for being whimps by balloting before 11/4. Fucker.
John
November 4, 2008 7:17 PM | Reply | Permalink
Wait a minute, Barnes early voted himself. And had the gall to complain about too many poor people in front of himlittle old ladies in front of him.
http://videocafe.crooksandliars.com/heather/fred-barnes-early-voting-was-crowded-poor-
I am speechless. Or at least left wiithout anything I cvan type on a family friendly comment.
November 4, 2008 8:26 PM | Reply | Permalink
One reason might be that Mark Warner (D) has been the projected winner for the Senate, a pretty good indicator.
It will be interesting to see what difference, if any, there are in the numbers between the two.
November 4, 2008 7:20 PM | Reply | Permalink
They just scratched out Obama....
November 4, 2008 7:15 PM | Reply | Permalink
I admit. I'd be pretty happy with a national margin of 15 points.
I might stop hyperventilating at that point.
Might.
November 4, 2008 7:12 PM | Reply | Permalink
OT: Thought you guys might like this tidbit from my polling place here in WI:
No cats were harmed in the move :-)
November 4, 2008 7:14 PM | Reply | Permalink
Closet redistributor!
November 4, 2008 7:18 PM | Reply | Permalink
Dang! Unmasked!
God I love it!
We're really going to do this :-)
Now if Prop-8 goes down along with all those anti-choice local refs we'll _really_ have a reason to party!
November 4, 2008 7:23 PM | Reply | Permalink
Whichever student decided it would be a really cool prank to have a bomb scare is probably going to be in deep trouble.
Good to know that cats were not involved. In any way. : )
November 4, 2008 7:22 PM | Reply | Permalink
OMFG! The Google site (TPM's embed) has Maine going to Obama by 2:1. Yep, that's two votes to one vote!
BTW, here's the link to the unadorned, unembedded Google site.
November 4, 2008 7:26 PM | Reply | Permalink
Feh. NOT meant as a reply to CL.
November 4, 2008 7:28 PM | Reply | Permalink
Alas that 3 is about how many people there ARE in Maine!
November 4, 2008 7:34 PM | Reply | Permalink
MCCAIN HAS HIM RIGHT WHERE HE WANTS HIM!!!
November 4, 2008 7:12 PM | Reply | Permalink
C'mon Indiana and Virginia, gives us early win. Put all of us out of misery.
November 4, 2008 7:13 PM | Reply | Permalink
One year ago, if someone told me that Indiana would be a close battleground state, I would ROTFLMAO!
Today, I was proved wrong!
November 4, 2008 7:14 PM | Reply | Permalink
Obama is actually leading in a few counties where Kerry got smoked. He's running 6-8 pts or more ahead of Kerry in most of the deep red counties that have reported already. With big pluralities in Marian, Lake and Porter counties, IN looks bluer and bluer.
November 4, 2008 7:14 PM | Reply | Permalink
Believe it or not, McSame is ahead right now 63-36% in Ripley County.
November 4, 2008 7:35 PM | Reply | Permalink
this is looking good folks.
November 4, 2008 7:14 PM | Reply | Permalink
Wow, Barack kicking ass in Terre Haute (Vigo) and South Bend. Southern counties too. Up 50-49 and we haven't heard from Marion or Lake yet...
Gotta go check on that champagne!
November 4, 2008 7:15 PM | Reply | Permalink
OMG! CNN is doing the Star Wars thing!
November 4, 2008 7:16 PM | Reply | Permalink
Jessica Yellin: "Help me, Wolf Blitzer, you're my only hope"
November 4, 2008 7:17 PM | Reply | Permalink
If any CNN reporters are wearing green outfits tonight, does that mean they get killed by aliens?
November 4, 2008 7:23 PM | Reply | Permalink
I hope the aliens take Tara Wall away. She's so annoying!
November 4, 2008 7:25 PM | Reply | Permalink
Tara may be a sista but she's whacked!
November 4, 2008 7:44 PM | Reply | Permalink
Actually, it's the red shirt.
http://www.thinkgeek.com/tshirts/generic/9722
November 4, 2008 7:29 PM | Reply | Permalink
Right.
Can we get Blitzer to change into a red suit? Please?
November 4, 2008 7:35 PM | Reply | Permalink
LOL!
I turned over to CNN during a break on MSNBC and saw Wolf and said - I can't. Switched right back.
November 4, 2008 7:24 PM | Reply | Permalink
I don't trust no stinkin' exit polls!!! CNN has VA at only 1% reporting... agggh..... well, it's only 4:16 here on the west coast, but everyone else is drinking, right?
November 4, 2008 7:17 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'm in mountain time and I'm on my third beer.
L'Chaim!
November 4, 2008 7:26 PM | Reply | Permalink
Just cracked my 2nd.
November 4, 2008 7:30 PM | Reply | Permalink
My wife and I went for drinks after voting at our fav microbew hall.
There was 3 TV's on with no sound - all with fox news.
It was Rove and Campaign Barbie. He went on and on....
I looked up - like 10 minutes later - fucker was still talking.
Finally they replaced him - with Santorum.
By the way, Santorum is latin for asshole.
November 4, 2008 7:37 PM | Reply | Permalink
www.spreadingsantorum.com
old link, but...
November 4, 2008 7:44 PM | Reply | Permalink
You voted at a microbrew hall? Where the hell do you live? Cool.
November 4, 2008 7:54 PM | Reply | Permalink
Riesling for dinner here.
November 4, 2008 8:03 PM | Reply | Permalink
Anyone else having trouble "getting" the TPM google map (on the front page)? Mine was fine till recently... when all I have is a spinning circle of lines.
November 4, 2008 7:17 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'm having the same trouble. :(
November 4, 2008 7:18 PM | Reply | Permalink
Go above to jzap where he gives the direct google link. that worked for me... and after that the TPM map also worked!
Good luck, buddy!
November 4, 2008 7:33 PM | Reply | Permalink
That's here: http://maps.google.com/help/maps/elections/#2008_election
But it probably doesn't matter. I got the same thing once or twice. Just hit reload.
November 4, 2008 7:39 PM | Reply | Permalink
It's doing fine for me. Thanks jzap! And after you gave me that link, the TPM map worked too! (go figure)
November 4, 2008 8:02 PM | Reply | Permalink
CNN's hologram gimmick - LOL
November 4, 2008 7:17 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yeah, WTF?
November 4, 2008 7:17 PM | Reply | Permalink
That served no purpose. All 3 of the cable networks are trying to "out tech" each other.
November 4, 2008 7:21 PM | Reply | Permalink
That's got Daily Show written all over it.
November 4, 2008 7:22 PM | Reply | Permalink
You reminded me to record that tonight. Thank you!
November 4, 2008 7:27 PM | Reply | Permalink
I wonder how much will George Lucas get paid for that?
November 4, 2008 7:23 PM | Reply | Permalink
The bad news is - Palin got out the Rep 'core vote'
The good news is - the Rep 'core vote' is rather smaller than the Republicans thought!
Early straws in the wind - but it seems the American people may have 'got up' (to quote a certain Delaware Senator)
Hey its only midnight here in the UK - I hope to go through the night sharing your joy.
November 4, 2008 7:19 PM | Reply | Permalink
Gawd...my head will explode in a moment.
November 4, 2008 7:20 PM | Reply | Permalink
My home state, Vermont, is the first to go blue on NBC. The first 3 electoral votes for Obama.
November 4, 2008 7:21 PM | Reply | Permalink
You can now call it Bleumont.
November 4, 2008 7:48 PM | Reply | Permalink
arghh in class atm.....
This is great news for Musgrove's sanity!!!
November 4, 2008 7:21 PM | Reply | Permalink
VA, IN...
Pleasepleaseplaseplease...
November 4, 2008 7:22 PM | Reply | Permalink
Here's an indicator:
My lifelong republican friend just sent me a text message:
"Here's to the change we need. I have your Obama button on"
November 4, 2008 7:23 PM | Reply | Permalink
Obama will win and or at least make it a nail-biter in IN. Like the primaries - ground game baby.
I live in Chicago and I personally know 10 people who volunteered in IN (plus myself).
Obama will win all the IL surrounding states because of that.
November 4, 2008 7:24 PM | Reply | Permalink
Take a gander at the Senate map of KY. Lunsford is winning some seriously red counties in the eastern part of the state. Not many votes there, but a bad indicator for McConnell. He must be pooping his drawers.
November 4, 2008 7:25 PM | Reply | Permalink
God I'd love to see the last of McConnell - that would be very sweet.
November 4, 2008 7:29 PM | Reply | Permalink
Since DeLay and Frist left, McConnel, Shelby, and Sessions are probably the biggest lying, closeted douchebags in Congress. The sooner they're all gone the better.
November 4, 2008 7:40 PM | Reply | Permalink
If he does lose, he'll have plenty of time to fill his cheeks with nuts for the winter.
November 4, 2008 7:44 PM | Reply | Permalink
Only two rural counties in VA reporting so far. Nothing from Northern VA yet ...
November 4, 2008 7:27 PM | Reply | Permalink
Well, Chesterfield isn't exactly rural, it's part of the Richmond-Petersburg MSA. But, yeah, you can't draw any conclusions about VA, until you have some numbers from NoVa and I'd say Norfolk areas, as well.
November 4, 2008 7:48 PM | Reply | Permalink
Vigo County 2004 results:
Rep: 20.988
Dem: 18,242
Lib: 307
November 4, 2008 7:27 PM | Reply | Permalink
This is what Josh has on the homepage:
7:21 PM ... In the states that are now closed we now have the officially released exit polls. We have the gender breakdown of the electorate and the topline breakdown of how each gender voted. So with a few simple calculations they amount to this ...
Georgia: McCain 50%, Obama 48%
Indiana: Obama 52%, McCain 46%
Virginia: Obama 54%, McCain 45%
Remember. I can't emphasize this enough. These are just exit polls. They're not always right.
November 4, 2008 7:29 PM | Reply | Permalink
Exit polling is useless because youngsters are willing to be exit polled whereas old timers don't take part in exit polling.
November 4, 2008 7:32 PM | Reply | Permalink
Recent updates show FL turning a beautiful shade of blue.
November 4, 2008 7:30 PM | Reply | Permalink
They haven't even called SC yet.
November 4, 2008 7:30 PM | Reply | Permalink
Indiana looks good, given the breakdown of the returns - the Dem strong holds have not reported yet.
November 4, 2008 7:30 PM | Reply | Permalink
You guys have it lucky. I live in Missouri, the only state to be lily white without a trace of blue or red on 538. We've called the election correctly since 1904 except for once in 1956. We're called the bellwether state, and I have no idea where we're going.
I went to an Obama rally a few days ago at Mizzou where I go to school, but Palin went to Jefferson City (the capital and a Republican area) a few days afterward. While I'm certain my county will go for Obama (three big colleges) and St. Louis and Kansas City, there are so many rural and conservative voters in the rest of the state to make it a total tossup.
History will hold, and Missouri will go for Obama.
November 4, 2008 7:30 PM | Reply | Permalink
What's happenning in VA?
November 4, 2008 7:32 PM | Reply | Permalink
Depends on what areas are reporting. Remember cities report later than the rural polls...
November 4, 2008 7:33 PM | Reply | Permalink
The communists are still counting the votes, give them time. :^)
November 4, 2008 7:46 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'm more optimistic than I was about my county in the Tampa Bay area going for Obama after doing a last ditch GOTV canvass.
One of the people on our team knocked on the door of a woman who was really rattled about who to vote for. This was at 6:00 P.M. She evidently had some friends who were scientologists (I live in a scientology mecca). They had told her Obama was for psychiatric drugs and ritalin for kids. The canvasser put her mind at ease and convinced her to get to her polling place and vote for Obama.
While we were discussing this, another canvasser offered that the scientologists here all voted for Ron Paul. I've been keeping tabs on voter statistics at our supervisor of elections website and couldn't figure out why registered "other" and republican voters had only a couple thousand votes difference at one point in early voting. The Ron Paul vote explains it.
I knew we had some rabid Paul fans here, but didn't know why. He could very well be the spoiler for McCain in these parts owing to the large population of scientologists.
November 4, 2008 7:33 PM | Reply | Permalink
If that turns out as you think it will, that will be one of the weirder stories of the election - I'm loving that -
November 4, 2008 7:38 PM | Reply | Permalink
Any story that comes from Florida is pretty much guaranteed to be weird. I just want Florida to redeem itself. We will never live down 2000 and all the havoc that followed, but damn it, it's time we show we have more decent, generous, intelligent people than selfish, xenophobic, deluded ones.
November 4, 2008 8:13 PM | Reply | Permalink
FL's looking very promising for Obama thus far - particularly in the Orlando and Miami-Dade areas.
November 4, 2008 7:44 PM | Reply | Permalink
I really have enough of Rachel. She is really annoying. She just does not get it. she does not get it that Senator Obama has run the best campaign ever...
November 4, 2008 7:34 PM | Reply | Permalink
Are you serious? The things she doesn't get are not worth getting.
WTF are you talking about?
November 4, 2008 7:38 PM | Reply | Permalink
O she's a bit of a concern troll sometimes - it depends on where you're coming from I guess -
We're chipping away at the Southern Strategy - my dearest hope -
November 4, 2008 7:39 PM | Reply | Permalink
I think the last presidential election hit Rachel pretty hard. The exit polls made it look as if Kerry/Edwards were winning. I'm with her...I can't relax. I don't want to follow the early returns, but I can't help myself!
November 4, 2008 7:45 PM | Reply | Permalink
I need a break. I'm going out for some coffee, please God.
November 4, 2008 7:35 PM | Reply | Permalink
Too early to freak out. Take it easy.
November 4, 2008 7:40 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yeah, that's the ticket. Hoav some coffee. It'll help you ReEeeLLaaXXxXXXxxXXX!
November 4, 2008 7:53 PM | Reply | Permalink
LOL
November 4, 2008 7:54 PM | Reply | Permalink
God help me. I'm really liking Joe Scarborough tonight.
November 4, 2008 7:37 PM | Reply | Permalink
LOL!
This tsunami has washed over the media, too.
November 4, 2008 7:41 PM | Reply | Permalink
Time to smoke that emergency joint you've been saving....
November 4, 2008 7:41 PM | Reply | Permalink
I caught myself thinking the same thing. Maybe Dean's rebuke has influenced him.
November 4, 2008 7:46 PM | Reply | Permalink
I really hope Liddy Dole is sent packing. She is so useless.
November 4, 2008 7:38 PM | Reply | Permalink
She needs to experience some serious consequences for her Godless accusations. Geebus, there are limits, aren't there?
November 4, 2008 7:53 PM | Reply | Permalink
No limits for her. That was one of the nastiest ads ever.
November 4, 2008 8:19 PM | Reply | Permalink
Can I just say that I have the feeling that this is going to be one of those nights?
November 4, 2008 7:40 PM | Reply | Permalink
You betcha!
(Luckily, this will be the last time I'll use that phrase ever again)
November 4, 2008 7:43 PM | Reply | Permalink
I love the idiosyncratic counties and cities in the US that are used as bellwethers for presidential elections, such as Vigo County, IN and Dixville Notch, NH.
November 4, 2008 7:41 PM | Reply | Permalink
Is there really a place called Dixville Notch? It sounds like something made up in a porn movie.
November 4, 2008 7:57 PM | Reply | Permalink
O is kicking bootie all over rural counties in freakin' Indiana! These are real votes, people, not exits.
Can you say: YES WE CAN?
November 4, 2008 7:43 PM | Reply | Permalink
MSNBC calls SC for McCain
November 4, 2008 7:47 PM | Reply | Permalink
KO just said there were ALOT of split ticket voting in IN, all going Obama's way. Not a good sign for McLoser
November 4, 2008 7:51 PM | Reply | Permalink
In Vanderburgh County Indiana, the Democratic Party primary numbers may be an indicator of how the state as a whole may flip for Obama.
2004 General Election - 56% turnout
Kerry 28,767
Bush 41,463
2008 Democratic Primary
Clinton 20,334
Obama 19,039
2008 Republican Primary
Huckabee 406
MCain 4,280
Paul 576
Romney 265
Vanderburg county has a white population of about 90% is socially conservative and is in many ways, is similar to it's neighbor Kentucky, which it borders.
November 4, 2008 7:51 PM | Reply | Permalink
Vigo County -- Birthplace of Eugene Debs!! (And me.)
November 4, 2008 7:57 PM | Reply | Permalink
We win PA!
November 4, 2008 8:00 PM | Reply | Permalink
PA!
November 4, 2008 8:01 PM | Reply | Permalink
PA FOR OBAMA,,,,,,,,,,, GLORY BE
November 4, 2008 8:03 PM | Reply | Permalink
PA for Obama on MSNBC:)
Yes we can!!!
November 4, 2008 8:05 PM | Reply | Permalink
Howard Dean for Chief of Staff. SCREAM IT!
November 4, 2008 8:06 PM | Reply | Permalink
ok. I'm starting to relax a little. without PA, McCain is....well...........
November 4, 2008 8:11 PM | Reply | Permalink
a goner.....
from John, age 11
November 4, 2008 8:12 PM | Reply | Permalink
Liz Dole gone. Nice.
November 4, 2008 8:28 PM | Reply | Permalink
Woohoooo!!!! Just saw 92% of precincts reporting in Pinellas County, Florida. Obama is ahead 53 to 46%. OMG!!!! The map Chuck Todd (I don't have cable) was referring to had Pinellas solid blue!!!! We're a bellwether county. OMG!!!!
November 4, 2008 8:35 PM | Reply | Permalink