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Get Ready! Here's How Your Info Will Come In

Are you ready? With the first results due in less than an half an hour now (less than half an hour!) here's how things will unfold:

At 6 p.m. ET, most of Indiana and the first half of Kentucky will close, with the remainder closing at 7 p.m. ET due to time zones, so we'll get the first wave of info quickly after six. Don't panic at the early Indiana numbers: In the state, the Eastern Time region will probably trend more to McCain than the state overall, with Obama strongholds like Gary coming in later in that Central Time region.

At 7 p.m., things starts to get busy, with the polls closing in most of Florida and all of Virginia and info from those states soon to follow. If a result can be called quickly in Virginia, in Obama's favor, we'll have an early sense of where the race is headed.

Then at 7:30 p.m. ET the polls close in Ohio and North Carolina. Again, any quick calls here in either direction will tell us where the race is going.

At 8 p.m. ET, the polls close in key swing states like Pennsylvania and Missouri.

At 9 p.m. ET, polls close in Colorado and New Mexico, plus John McCain's home state of Arizona.

At 10 p.m. ET, the polls close in Iowa and Nevada.

And at 11 p.m. ET, the polls close along the West Coast and in Hawaii, which brings us to a very important number to keep in mind for tonight: 77, the total number of electoral votes in California, Oregon, Washington State and Hawaii. Those states are expected to be Obama landslides, with the 77 votes assigned to him practically at the moment those polls close.

So as news networks assign Obama electoral votes from the toss-up states as they close, add the 77 number on top of what is being commonly projected. If Obama reaches 193 electoral votes or more before 11 p.m. ET, he could effectively be the President-Elect pending those poll closures.

And, of course, we'll be blogging it all here at Election Central.


153 Comments

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My guess is that Barack will wait until California is called before making his speech.

Unless McCain concedes before then...

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I'm not nauseously optimistic, or cautiously nauseous at this point. I'm just nauseous.

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Agreed. I'm a bit of a mess.

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I'm as jumpy as a whore in church.

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Artfully said, Tena! :)

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I'm as jumpy as Ned Flanders in a whorehouse.

Indeedily!

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Were still fishin and drinkin and waitin!

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It's finally here.

Voted early today, big turnout at 7am at my local polling place. Crusty old poll worker told me to take off my tiny Obama button before going in. I happily complied and said, "good eye!"

Let's do this. It feels perfect to be here at Election Central when the 1st results come in.

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And, yeah. I feel kinda sick. But happy.

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This is driving me nuts. And I hate exit polls. And Drudge.

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Some states, for example CO and VA, are anticipating no results until very late. Keith O. at MSNBC is reporting that McCain's campaign filed a lawsuit to order VA to accept military absentee ballots up to November 14th.

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Even with the lawsuit, if the margin of difference is larger than the number of military ballots, it's not going to matter, and we could still find out tonight.

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So, in other words, none of us will get any sleep tonight because we're either waiting OR celebrating! Better be the latter!

OK, I'm walking over to Grant Park now - right down the street! Talk to ya's tomorrow!

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envyyyyyyy

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not kidding. It'll be like Times Square Dec. 31 over there.

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Why hasn't the TPM server melted down yet? Did you guys put an extra hamster on the wheel?

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Dude! Don't evoke demons! Shhhhhhhhhhh.

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i was thinking the same thing.

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I can't imagine how many page loads....

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Shhhhhhhhhhhh!

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Watch the totals in Indianapolis. That's a fairly Democratic part of IN, and they're on EST. That might give you a sense of the trend in IN.

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I am the only one who cant stand Harold Ford Jr? I dont trust that guy.

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You are not the only one.

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Ford comes from the conservative wing of the party and distinguished himself as the only pundit on any network willing to talk up McCain's "green screen" speech.

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He lost what little credibility he had with me that night. And for some reason, he seems to be the only "liberal" they parade out on Morning Joe...drives me nuts.

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I love the FOX rubes getting all excited about the gap McCain had among White Men in the VA Exit Polls. Former Clintonite Howard Wolfson threw water on that by pointing out that Bush won the demo in VA by 40% in 2004 in the exit polls, and that Obama cut that in half with that in half.

The Fox Head paused, then tried to fluff the polls that there's more data coming in and they could change. :)

The exit polls aren't of much use, as Nate and others have pointed out. But they are fun to see turned around at the Fox Heads.

John

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your tempting me to look at FOX

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I've been resisting the temptation, but everytime Harold Ford turns up on MSNBC, I have to flip away. And if CNN is on a commercial, I tempt fate by clicking over to FOX. :P


JOhn

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nausea.......Tonight I find out when the exact point occurs that champagne overcomes nausea.

Oh, God, do not let this night be long in contemplation of of Caribou f*#&ing Barbie.

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While we all know we're supposed to celebrate with champagne, it's too slow-acting for me. I've just opened a bottle of gin. I'll feel better now.

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God I love Chris Matthews - he's waxing poetic on voter turnout and democracy. Sometimes I think he stopped his emotional growth at about 22.


He's so starry eyed he's about float off -lol His crush on Obama is almost as bad as mine.

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Hah! (in honor of Chris)

He really does have a thing for Obama. Did you see his heartfelt plea to the old farts out there when he was on Jay Leno?

(He didn't use that term, of course). It was really quite sweet. Along the lines of "Look to your children. This stuff about race doesn't even matter to them. Think about that, and see if you couldn't find it in your heart to support a black man for president."

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You know they used to joke about a category of straight men who were gay only for Bruce Springsteen. I think, in Obama, we may have another example of this one-man-directed homosexuality.

And, goodness know, Chris has long ago declared first go at Barrack!

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Tweety has a crush on Obama, but he has a deep seated LOVE for McCain. Tena - did you catch that point where he was rambling on about McCain being like an old WWII hero? It's not that Tweety was mistaken about McCain being a Nam vet. If you read between the lines, Tweety projects World War II "Greatest Generation" Noble War heroism on McCain in his own mind... rather than being a hero of that Dirty Fucking Hippy War.

So we shouldn't overestaimate his crush on Obama. Crushes go sour, the eye wanders, and someone else catches the loins. Deep Love... that something that you take with you to the grave, even when it goes wrong. Tweety will never give up his love for McCain, even when he's run a campaign like this.

BTW... Gregory is a total d-bag host. Oh-oh... Harold Ford sighting... where did I leave my clicker... :)


John

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Darlin - Tweety is about as deep as the average Taos rain puddle.

When I said I love him, it was meant a bit facetiously. I do enjoy watching him go off on these people - he gets so wound up in a much nicer way than most talking heads do.

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I love (and share) your aversion to Ford.

I use him as proof to my friends that I'm not supported Obama just because he's black!

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Matthews is actually not a bad guy. As much of a motormouth offscreen as on, but a decent sort.

Take that for what it's worth...

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We are here today -- still can't believe it. And I'm such a mess...

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It's the end of Bush. It's the end of the Republicans.

O my god -

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But it's the beginning of the race to see how much more damage he can do before his term is up. And he's been VERY busy.

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we know we know. But let's have fun tonight, ok? No matter what happens, I plan to enjoy this. This is what we've been working for.

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Am I the only one who's having problems with the front page map? It won't ever load.

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Same problem here, Hillarym99.

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I was having that problem, but it pulled up when I selected a state.

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Look for McCain to Turn to Federalist Society to Salvage His Campaign
http://satiricalpolitical.com/?p=4609

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Funny shit ever. :)

John

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Fuck I cannot take this. I am literally shaking with nerves.

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Somebody talk me down, please!

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The odds that so many different polls, using different methodologies could be that far off in not one state but many is vanishingly small. Nate Silver has McCain's chances of winning at 1.1%. I think he's being generous.

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Thanks. You, plus beer, are helping.

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About the only real suspense here is how big the margin is going to be and whether we're going to have a comedian in the Senate.

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Thank you.

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So much for Wall Street dreading the prospect of an Obama presidency.

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Wall Street [heart] socialism.

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ok kackins. worry won't change anything. we have all worked hard. we have given in whatever ways we have been able, as have millions of others. all that work is not in vain.

that being said, I've gotten my kids Panda Express and Iron Man, I have msnbc on one window, and tpm on the other, just took a bath, popped my second negro modelo, and think I'm gonna puke.

someone talk me down.

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See mans best friend's post just above.

Beer works too.

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LOLOLOL!

I don't know that I can talk you down, but you just made me burst out laughing.

I am so with you.

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I did a little more in the final days than I initially expected.

It's time to sit back and hope for the best.

I'm ridiculously nervous by the way.

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Second'd!

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Third'd

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So impressed at the long voting lines in the rain, wow, go America.

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Two words: Preemptive Xanax.

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Great idea, off to take some

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Today is the "harvest".....

The Seven Of Pentacles

Under a sky the color of pea soup
she is looking at her work growing away there
actively, thickly like grapevines or pole beans
as things grow in the real world, slowly enough.
If you tend them properly, if you mulch, if you water,
if you provide birds that eat insects a home and winter food,
if the sun shines and you pick off caterpillars,
if the praying mantis comes and the ladybugs and the bees,
then the plants flourish, but at their own internal clock.

Connections are made slowly, sometimes they grow underground.
You cannot tell always by looking what is happening.
More than half the tree is spread out in the soil under your feet.
Penetrate quietly as the earthworm that blows no trumpet.
Fight persistently as the creeper that brings down the tree.
Spread like the squash plant that overruns the garden.
Gnaw in the dark and use the sun to make sugar.

Weave real connections, create real nodes, build real houses.
Live a life you can endure: Make love that is loving.
Keep tangling and interweaving and taking more in,
a thicket and bramble wilderness to the outside but to us
interconnected with rabbit runs and burrows and lairs.

Live as if you liked yourself, and it may happen:
reach out, keep reaching out, keep bringing in.
This is how we are going to live for a long time: not always,
for every gardener knows that after the digging, after
the planting,
after the long season of tending and growth, the harvest comes.

~ Marge Piercy ~


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That is beautiful....thank you for sharing!

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I'm really just speechless right now. After all the endless arguing and analysis is worth nothing now. Just the vote matters.It's in the hands of the American people now. Usually that would be slightly terrifying to me, but not this time.

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I think Keith and Chris are going to kill each other by 8pm. Did anyone see the little exchange between the two of them just now?

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Yes. LOL They both have the same temperament.

Tweety is always striving to be noble and Keith isn't. He's all over the truth.

;)

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I've never heard it put so well before (and I know Chris).

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I did and I love it. I have to say I'm more and more liking Chris over Kieth these days.

Chris just speaks his heart, no matter how boneheaded he is. He said a moment ago: "I will not allow anyother opinion on this."

1 percent reported Obama leading by 2000 votes in IN.

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Matthews keeps wanting to hit Obama for opting out of public financing, and Olbermann won't let him get away with it.

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Why do they have the douchebag Gregory between Chris and Kieth?

He's annoying.

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Referee.

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I'm stuck at work at the Reference Desk riding the computer-no adult beverages for me. Yet.

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i hope you guys are flipping over at 538.com. Nate is doing live blogging and analysis in real time.

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About right now, John McCain gives up his last hopes for that sorely wanted Bin Laden pre-election tape to emerge.

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Hey everyone! What's going on? Is there an election or something?

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Relax, kids...Betfair, (remember, they got every fucking state right in 2004), are now offering McSlime at 20/1...I repeat 20 to 1. Obama, on the other hand is now offered at 1/20, that's a $20 bet to win $1. It's over. Honest.

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Very early one percent in N.H. and IN.

Obama leading.

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Watching David Kurtz from Grant Park, I can almost sense his nervousness?

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The Onion's Election page is helping calm the nerves.

http://www.theonion.com/content/whitehousewar

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The Onion and The Daily Show...

What would we do without them?

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You said it.

"Confused McCain Pretty Sure He Just Voted For Pat Buchanan"

LOL.

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Is anyone else having problems with the front page Map?


John

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Yes - I see the following error:

Error parsing module spec:
Not a properly formatted file
missing xml header

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Indiana ealry returns are split, usually they go big for the Republican candidate. Early good omen.

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I'm listening to MSNBC and checking several blogs. I'm still shocked about how many people all over the country are voting, and standing in awful lines to do it. I hope GW and Darth are aware of this and that they understand exactly what the country is saying to them.

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Awesome! Fineman thinks the Rev Wright ad in Penn turned out the AA vote better than Obama's ground troops even.

LOL!

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i know. kewl.

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WOW! The ultimate irony!

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Wouldn't surprise me one bit. Between McCain's embracing Bush's policies, picking a dimwit running mate and his consistent and exclusive use of negative ads despite all evidence that they were backfiring, it's almost as if he was trying to lose.

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Tena, Will you recommend a TV network or cable station for election coverage? Thanks from a crazy caunck who is a big fan of Obama here in Vancouver, BC.

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I'm watching MSNBC right now.

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Indiana looks good

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From what I can see, Obama's in the 40% range in deep-red counties. That's not good news for McCain.

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If anybody wants a bigger full screen view of the "widget" on TPM's main page, you can use this link. I have it up in a tab, and it's MUCH easier to use in a larger window.

http://www.gmodules.com/ig/ifr?url=http://general-election-2008.googlecode.com/svn/trunk/results-gadget-tpm-1.xml&synd=open&w=573&h=463

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Indiana...
Just looking at some of the places where we have results in so far. Obama is substantially outperforming Kerry -- which is what he needs to do to win the state, of course, but the differences are pretty substantial.

Steuben: Kerry 34%, Obama 42%
DeKalb: Kerry 31%, Obama 38%
Knox: Kerry 36%, Obama 54%
Marshall: Kerry 31%, Obama 50%

-- Nate Silver at 5:45 PM 0 Commen

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And remember that Gary, IN (a strong blue area) is in the Central time zone so there won't be results from there for a while.

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I'm on tenterhooks! Oh, and my building's stupid Direct TV subscription doesn't include MSNBC, so I'm forced to watch Wolf Blitzer and Anderson "Is he or isn't he?" Cooper. Ugh.

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Thanks, Jack! :)

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Holy shit: Did I just see 50-49 in Kentucky? I know it's early but damn.

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Where'd you see that?

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CNN. Now it's 51-48 McCain with 9 percent reporting.

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KY is skewed...most of the earlynumbers or from Lousiville.

VA in four minutes.

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I'm so nervous...

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Yeah, but that's where most of the people are in KY. Those deep red counties in SE Kentucky have only a few thousand voters. No way Obama's going to win KY, but if he finishes in the high 40's, that's pretty remarkable.

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52-47 McBush with 10% reporting in IN at 7 pm.

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Yes you did - I almost fainted when I saw that - I can't fucking believe it


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Always reliable to leak the exit polls...

DRUDGE REPORT: EXIT POLLS SHOW OBAMA BIG

The numbers are out there all the networks have them but can't openly discuss...just throw some code words out here and there

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O my god - it's an Obama Tsunami in North Carolina. I think every single African American who is eligible to vote has turned out.

I'm hyperventilating -

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Just heard the same thing!

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Holy shit... Lunsford is sticking close in KY.


John

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The moment of truth. I am a nervous nelly.

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It's coming... prepare yourself. The Obama tsunami is making landfall.

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Univision exit poll:

78% of hispanics voted for Obama.

But... the exit poll comes from Zogby.

http://www.univision.com/content/content.jhtml;jsessionid=24YCY55V3LGDYCWIAA4CFFAKZAAB2IWC?cid=1730583

Talk among yourselves. I already gave you a topic.

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The link is in Spanish. Sorry about that.

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VA in a moment. We may actually win IN. Holy Fuck...my feet are sweaty.

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My eyes are sweaty.

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Gary, Indiana (just outside Chicago) didn't close its polls until 7. This could be huge.

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Kentucky goes to McLame - but I think it was close -

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CNN just projected Vermont for Obama and Kentucky for McCain ...

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CNN called KY for McCain.

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It's highly amusing watching the BBC's all-night election coverage, (it's midnight here). In the interests of scrupulous balance, they always have a Repug talking head seated next to a Democrat TH.

The BBC have got reporters in every swing state and more besides, so lots of Repug and Dem talking heads. It's the contrast between the pained expression on the Repug faces as they try to put a positive spin on things and the Dems -invariably looking like people who've just won the lotttery- cheery, beaming, chuckling...I love it.

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CNN: VT blue, KY red

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But very close for Kentucky - I think -

Scarborough - a total repudiation of the Republican Party -

to which I say - you betcha!

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Warner wins

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KY for McCain, no problem. That is one of a handful of states that would not go for Obama even in a landslide.


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IN is real close.

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Georgia too close to call!!!!

My God, unbelievable!!!!

Please to say goodbye to Saxby Shameless.

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Georgia too close to call!!!!

My God, unbelievable!!!!

Please to say goodbye to Saxby Shameless.

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NO GA is too early to call.

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This is what I expected VA will be called early than IN even though much of IN closed early.

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i hope you guys are flipping over at 538 as well.

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DailyKos is calling VA for Obama!

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link.

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For me, no celebration yet... I want to be perfectly sure.

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i will wait for the networks to call it, thank you.

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Such touching faith in the networks!

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Come on VA.

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OK.

Joe Scarborough just said that, in the house and senate, this election is..."a total repudiation of the Republican agenda"....

yikes.

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Saw that. Pat Buchanan agreed. I think.

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Sure sounds to me that MSNBC already knows the outcome. And it doesn't sound good for McCain.

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They are doing some messed up stuff on CNN. They are doing a Star Wars style hologram.

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Whoa CNN is doing this crazy hologram thing with its reporters. Very R2D2-ish.

Never seen anything like it.

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They just beamed/hologramedd in Jessica Allen from Chicago to the CNN studio! Damn!

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You cats have fun.

I'm going to go downtown Kalamazoo, where the Dems are having the big shindig.

I need a drink. Or four.

I never really loved REM, but:

"It's the end of the world as we know it

And I feel fine."

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Indiana Intrade:

Obama- 70
McCain- 38

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Money is more telling than polls.

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God I think I'm going to throw up.

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I am so glad to have a place at TPM to watch this ship come in.
This is history in the making, too, and I often forget that. The page has long since turned from the hackneyed robber baron media outlets to the new wave cresting here and at a few other notable places.
A grateful nod to you, Josh and crew. And another to all of the bright minds who have shared their knowledge, wisdom, and thoughts.
It's an amazing day that I appreciate beyond expression.

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PA Obama MSNBC

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