Grading The National Polls: Rasmussen In First, Gallup And Zogby Last
So looking back on our polling obsession about this race, which pollsters actually did the best job of calling this race, comparing the final polls to the actual results?
Taking a look at the national polls, who was correct in predicting Barack Obama at around 52%, and who got the right margin of a six-point popular vote win over John McCain?
Take a look at these final polls:
Rasmussen: Obama 52%, McCain 46%GWU: Obama 49%, McCain 44%
Research 2000: Obama 51% McCain 46%
Zogby: Obama 54%, McCain 43%
IBD/TIPP: Obama 48%, McCain 42%
ABC/WaPo: Obama 53%, McCain 44%
CBS: Obama 51%, McCain 42%
Fox News: Obama 50%, McCain 43%
Ipsos/McClatchy: Obama 50%, McCain 42%.
Hotline/Diageo: Obama 50%, McCain 45%
Gallup: Obama 53%, McCain 42%
Most of these polls were on target with Obama winning by five to seven points, and quite a few of them had him in the neighborhood of 52% support. The first prize goes to Rasmussen for nailing the 52%-46% figure exactly. Research 2000 is close behind with their 51%-46% figure. Gallup was way off in giving Obama an 11-point win, but they did have Obama's support at just over the true result of 52%. And Zogby also gave Obama an 11-point lead, at a 54% level of support.
Also, the final Pew poll allocated its undecideds based on demographics and answers to key issue questions. Their prediction: Obama 52%, McCain 46%.
I think the real winner was fivethirtyeight.com who called the election of 348.7 to 189.4 electoral votes and right now we're looking at 349 to 159 with MO likely for McCain.
They called the election 52.3% to 46.2% which is almost dead on.
They also called the Senate 57 to 40 and we're currently at 56/40 with the remaining unknown.
That is some impressive accuracy.
November 5, 2008 2:56 PM | Reply | Permalink
heh heh, I learned more from 538 than I ever wanted to about stats.
November 5, 2008 3:05 PM | Reply | Permalink
I've said it before and I'll say it again: never doubt a sabermetrician. Those guys know what they're doing when it comes to numbers!
November 5, 2008 3:17 PM | Reply | Permalink
What's a sabermetrician?
These are areas which I knew exactly nothing about - less than nothing really.
November 5, 2008 3:22 PM | Reply | Permalink
sabermetrician = individual insanely obsessed with baseball statistics.
Insanely.
November 5, 2008 3:26 PM | Reply | Permalink
My husband is a bit of one himself, so I'm very familiar with them. Wouldn't know anything about them otherwise; I'm a big baseball fan, but I can't get into the minutiae of the stats. But I respect their brains, especially Nate's.
November 5, 2008 3:31 PM | Reply | Permalink
I do a ton of statistics for a living. I actually wish they were more transparent about their methods.
November 5, 2008 3:29 PM | Reply | Permalink
You've forgotten NC. That would make it 364/
November 5, 2008 4:09 PM | Reply | Permalink
I guess I don't follow the pollsters all that closely, but I'm curious - how much poll-reading do they do amongst themselves when figuring out how to allocate undecideds, etc.? I get the impression that they do a lot of it in rather subjective fashion in order to avoid seeming like the odd one out (I'm looking at you IBD/TIPP), but that just may be my own cynicism.
November 5, 2008 2:56 PM | Reply | Permalink
OT, but this is a great rumor, hope it is true. Robert Kennedy:
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/11/05/robert-f-kennedy-environm_n_141454.html
November 5, 2008 3:00 PM | Reply | Permalink
That's rumor mongering I endorse.
November 5, 2008 3:20 PM | Reply | Permalink
I hope not. I believe Kennedy is part of the anti-immunization crowd. Someone with a more scientific background rather than ideological would be better. EPA has been too anti-science for the past 8 years.
November 5, 2008 4:20 PM | Reply | Permalink
I feel I speak for everyone here when expressing total shock that Zogby missed the mark. Wild Thing Rick Vaughn has better aim.
http://pufferfish.typepad.com/
November 5, 2008 3:00 PM | Reply | Permalink
total shock.
November 5, 2008 3:06 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'm afraid it may take me weeks to come to grips with that finding.
Slightly O/T: Marilyn Musgrave went DOWN. The country has demonstrated definitively that we aren't bat shit crazy after all.
November 5, 2008 3:10 PM | Reply | Permalink
Not definitely enough, since Michele Bachmann is still in office. But yes, that's great news about Musgrave.
November 5, 2008 3:19 PM | Reply | Permalink
LOLOL!
I love that stupid movie because I love Charlie in that part and I love that damn song more than I can say.
When I was 15? I remember a guy singing it to me. We were going down the street in his new car -
November 5, 2008 3:24 PM | Reply | Permalink
that was supposed to be a reply to DannyNoonan - wassup with that?
November 5, 2008 3:26 PM | Reply | Permalink
Tena, here is something else for you to cry over:
http://www.cnn.com/video/#/video/politics/2008/11/05/colin.powell.reaction.cnn
November 5, 2008 3:27 PM | Reply | Permalink
Off topic here, but I just found out Michael Crichton died! I was a HUGE fan of his books!!
And yes, I know he was a right winger, but still an incredibly talented author!
http://www.popeater.com/movies/article/jurassic-park-author-michael-crichton/238941
November 5, 2008 3:00 PM | Reply | Permalink
Crichton was one of the most grossly anti-science, lying people around. Sorry to sound so crass but definitely no tears shed.
November 5, 2008 4:21 PM | Reply | Permalink
I saw that Coleman clip on TPM; what a tool he is. Here's hoping that the recount pushes that bonehead out of office.
November 5, 2008 3:05 PM | Reply | Permalink
He is an ass.
November 5, 2008 3:15 PM | Reply | Permalink
Also O/T, but MSNBC is reporting that Rahm Emmanuel has accepted the chief-of-staff offer.
November 5, 2008 3:05 PM | Reply | Permalink
Second the 538 comment, but would include Intrade.
November 5, 2008 3:06 PM | Reply | Permalink
Eric, much thanks for wading through the polls every day. I'm sure you know more about square roots than most people now.
November 5, 2008 3:07 PM | Reply | Permalink
Certainly more than he probably wants to, at least.
November 5, 2008 3:11 PM | Reply | Permalink
The big winner is Nate Silver and his career, as well as Intrade. That guy is going places.
Polling accuracy is EXCELLENT NEWS!!!! FOR MCCAIN!!!
November 5, 2008 3:14 PM | Reply | Permalink
They have an outstanding team that clearly balanced out well. I agree, they are headed for Bigger Days.
November 5, 2008 3:20 PM | Reply | Permalink
Listening to CNN a little earlier, Dana Bash was interviewing Sarah Palin on the dreadful flight back to Alaska and asked about her thoughts on possibly being the main cause McCain lost.
Well, the Ice Princess took zero blame for it and said "I've heard that, but I don't believe it. If people want me to apologize or something for being the reason John and I lost, I won't because I'm not reason we lost."
Well, how about you being 80% of the reason he lost, you ignorant twit??
November 5, 2008 3:28 PM | Reply | Permalink
She's a special kind of special.
November 5, 2008 3:32 PM | Reply | Permalink
Ohhhh "twit", I need to read more carefully next time.
November 5, 2008 3:38 PM | Reply | Permalink
LOL!!
November 5, 2008 3:50 PM | Reply | Permalink
Sorry, even Sarah cannot steal this from Bush.
Nobody can. Bush, Bush, Bush. I agree with M. Dowd. The most pivotal event in the 2008 election was Bush's decision to invade Iraq.
November 5, 2008 6:08 PM | Reply | Permalink
i'm interested in how the different polling orgs fared in their final state-by-state polls and their electoral vote projections.
whose got the tallies on that?
November 5, 2008 3:56 PM | Reply | Permalink
Eric: Gallup didn't predict an 11 point Obama 53%, McCain 42% win. 53=42 = 95. Suggested is a 5% point undecided.
November 5, 2008 4:47 PM | Reply | Permalink