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GOP Outworking Dems In Georgia Senate Runoff, NRSC Throws In New Attack Ad

Unless we're missing something, it really seems like the GOP is outworking national Democrats on the high-stakes Georgia Senate runoff, which gives Dems an outside shot at bumping off high-profile GOP incumbent Saxby Chambliss. Unlike the Dems, the GOP has big ads and planned appearances in the state by major national GOP names.

Here's the NRSC's new attack ad against Democratic challenger Jim Martin, which warns that Martin is a tax-hiker who will aid the liberals in Washington -- the kind of red-meat message that could help turn out their base in a low-turnout runoff election:

The DSCC doesn't have an ad up yet, and it should be noted that GOP notables like John McCain, Mike Huckabee and Rudy Giuliani are all going into the state to campaign for Chambliss. Martin has publicly invited Barack Obama to come in -- which would help mobilize the Dem base -- but so far the president-elect has focused on his own transition instead of a single down-ballot contest.

It's easy to understand why the Dems wouldn't want to be seen as staking too much in the race -- this is a state that went 52%-47% for John McCain last week, so a heavy investment could be seen as too high-risk in terms of the public relations problems that a potential defeat would create.


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I don't think there's a very good chance that Obama's voters will turn out again for Martin, in greater numbers than the Repub base, who may be energized about the possibility of a small victory against "that one".

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John McCain, Mike Huckabee and Rudy Giuliani are all going into the state to campaign for Chambliss.

Why the hell would Rudy go?

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It's right next to Florida?

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Believe it or not, Rudy thinks he has a future as a national candidate. So the more stuff like this he does, the more chits he has to call in in 2012.

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Believe it or not, Rudy thinks he has a future as a national candidate.

And that, in actuality, is funny.

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Let's hope so.

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It's hilarious.

1. The Republican base has shrunk significantly as result of 11/4.

2. Rudy is Catholic -- which is in the general neighborhood of monarchy, Communism, socialism, and everything anti-red white and blue.

3. In 2012 he'll be 900 years old, which is almost ass old as McSenile.

4. Pluses: he's divorced and remarried, and has no social graces.

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I see 1 Martin ad for probably every 5 I see for Chambliss. The Martin ad I've seen (featuring Obama) is really good, but so far, it seems, he's being heavily outspent. It also seems that most of the Chambliss ads I've seen are from outside groups.

Unfortunately, I think Martin's going to lose...I just don't think this race is generating all that much excitement here.

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Saxby mailers are about 4-1 and I got a robo call from Sonny Sunday reminding me how important this race is and how easy it is to vote by mail, if I hurry.

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The fact that Giuliani would go shows how desperate for attention he is. What a pathetic fool.

And that's just the G-version.

http://www.thewholedelivery.com

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If Martin was going to win it would have had to have been on Nov 4th. Huck, Rudy and McCain are all there because it's pretty much a sure win and all want to back the winner, with Huck and Rudy already looking towards 2012.

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I tend to agree with this, unfortunately.
I don't see a bigger Dem vote in the run-off other than what turned out for the Nov. 4th election.
And that wasn't enough.

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Why the hell would Rudy go?

Noun, verb, 9/11.

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How much time is there for a campaign? Days, weeks or months?

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The runoff is Dec. 4.

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Thanks!

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I think it's the 2nd.

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It is, indeed, on the 2nd.

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With all that went on up to election day, it wouldn't surprise me if the Democrats were cooling their heels to give the voters in Georgia a few days of campaign relief before they hit them hard on the run-off election.

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I don't run campaigns, obviously, but I would imagine that voters have got to be fed up with campaign advertising at this point.

Dec. 4 (or Dec. 2) is still three weeks (or thereabouts) away. If I were running, I'd give voters a rest.

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The GOP *losers* don't have much else going on so their schedules are much more open these days. Obama? Not so much.

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Dems' may have to cut their loss in GA.

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I think it's a lost cause - Obama absolutely should not go to campaign, he risks being cast as weak and ineffective if (when) Martin loses, before his administration has even begun

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Obama's coattails are way too short to be effective at this point. A failure before taking office could set a precedent that the repugs could capitalize on and use against Democrats at the beginning of his administration to win back some of what they've lost and set up a reversal of fortunes for the mid-term elections.

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Personal, I don't think Obama cares if there is or isn't a veto-proof Senate. If it were veto-proof, it would make his position harder to get the repugs to come to the center on any legislative process. Whereas, a few votes short would give the repugs a little dignity that Obama can use to his advantage and get more accomplish with less political strife.

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Sixty Senate votes makes a bill filibuster-proof.
You need two-thirds (67) to make it veto-proof.

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Thanks for the correction. I should have googled it myself first.

My intent still remains. The it's an important legislative tool if you're the underdog. I don't believe Obama wants the repugs to resort to using it. If he can bridge the isle and bring both Party's to the center, there won't be a need to use it.

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Y'all don't need all 60 as long as Snow and Collins are around.

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I agree with you. Shocking, isn't it, to have a preznit who thinks like that?

Plus, Chambliss was way ahead of Martin, it's pretty much a lost cause anyway.

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Down is not lost. Just ask Obama.

What is telling is that Obama does not appear to give a damn about Martin and giving himself the advantage of furthering the Democratic agenda with the most votes possible.

Oops, forgot. Obama does not care about the Democratic agenda and has his own agenda whatever that may turn out to be. Hard to tell these days if it is what he promised or merely what is 'prudent.'

No, Obama's national people can't do Georgia but he could certainly inspire and get funding for enough organizers to get the job done.

Whether or not, Obama helps out in Georgia Obama is going to get tagged with the loss if Martin loses.

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I think the run-off election is scheduled for Dec 2. I've seen lots of Repub/Chambliss ads over the last few days and none for Martin. This is a big switch from the last days of the regular campaign when Martin ads (some really good ones too) were outnumbering Chamblis about 5-1. It seems like the Dems have pretty well written it off.

I think it'd be a longshot for Martin but doable. Cynthia Tucker, editor of the Atlanta Journal Constitution said pretty much the same thing on the Chris Mathews show last Sunday.

Still, Chambliss is so sleazy I'd love to see him go down hard.

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Why not just show a continuous loop of John McCain's characterization of Chambliss' sleazeball attacks on Max Cleland as "reprehensible"?

Opportunities to flip Senate seats are incredibly rare. Chambliss has no redeeming qualities. I understand not staking Obama's full cred on this, but I don't see why the party and third party groups wouldn't be going all out on this one, even if it's uphill.

I thought the lesson of the 50 state strategy was to fight, fight, fight.

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Because Saxby got 49.7%...the Libratarian pulled 3.5%. Most of those aren't going to Martin. It was never a question of could Martin beat Chambliss, the question was would Saxby get 50%?

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I understand where you're coming from, but the run-off will be a very different beast than the original election. We can expect voter turn-out to be much lower all around, which means that a good community organizer might be a real asset. I don't hold out a lot of hope for Martin, but I do have some.

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True, but an organizer needs a rally cry "help us send the nerdy white guy from Atlanta to Washinton" can't compete with "yes we can!"

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You got a problem with us nerdy white guys?!?

But seriously, right now it seems the Republicans are playing the game better in Georgia. However, there's sometimes a method to Obama's madness that isn't immediately clear, so I'm not writing off Martin, yet. (It's also possible that Obama is just too busy with everything else he has on his plate and/or more cynical reasons, so I'm also not going to make any grand pronouncements about Martin winning, either.)

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"too high-risk in terms of the public relations problems that a potential defeat would create."

This is a typically lame rational for the Dems. Pathetic! Do you think the Reps would just roll over because it might look bad if they lose?

I've sent Martin a chunk of change already, and will send more. But I also want to see the Senate Dems send some of their war chests his way!!!

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Just got an e-mail from Plouffe saying the DNC is in debt and asking for money to pay it off. So maybe there just isn't any money for a DNC or DNCC push in GA, as well deserved as it is.

I tend to agree that Obama does not want to stake anything on this race. Though I send Hart a little money directly.

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I'm sure the risk of Martin losing is part of it, but for Obama to publicly support him would rile republicans and arouse their suspicions and knee-jerk opposition before his presidency even begins.

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Would be nice to make this a "teachable moment" on the subject of "Wag the Dog".

To be brief, Bush, Cheney, and Rove, with obvious collusion from congressional GOP, put a gratuitous union-busting rule into the Homeland Security act, intentionally to bait the Dems into voting against it, so they could run those attack ads against Cleland and others. Their ultimate goal: to win the 2002 election so they could pass another huge tax cut for their "base". The entire runup to the Iraq war including the AUMF was geared toward the same end.

Dividing Americans and sacrificing our troops for political and monetary gain. There's a special place in Hell for people like this. But to date, the Dem leadership has never pushed this meme. The MSM won't touch it. Most Americans will be appalled and angry if/when they finally understand it.

Now would be a good time to start.

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That's because no one believes it but the tin foil hat crowd. Hate them for what they do is one thing, believe that they did it for personal enrichment is another completely.

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Right: the Bushit criminal enterprise stole the election in 2000 not only for the good of the country but to strengthen the Constitution and rule of law.

Totally selfless. Gratuitously slefless, even, considerin'.

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I wouldn't be surprised if Martin blew all of his cash in the days before Nov. 4. His ads were everywhere and so omnipresent they'd run back to back sometimes. I'm not sure how Chambliss ended up with cash on hand but it seems like Martin's on empty.

I'd love for the President-Elect to come here and campaign for Martin but you know what will happen if he does and Martin then loses: the Repubs start spewing nonsense about Obama's lost clout, the honeymoon is over, etc etc.

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I'm glad that we didn't just all sit around and say how hopeless it all was before the general election. If we had, we'd be listening to president elect McCain right now. Chambliss won by 3%--hardly a landslide. The big problem with run offs is always that people don't show up to vote. Well, that was Chambliss's problem in the general and it might be his problem this time too. If a few thousand of Obama's southern volunteers converged on Georgia, we could show them what a real ground game looks like. Ads are good, but they don't beat a one on one at the front door. That worked in Virgina, North Carolina and Florida and it can work in Georgia too. We don't deserve to win if all we do is lean back in our chairs and say we can't win so why bother trying!

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"If a few thousand of Obama's southern volunteers..." That's the point, they were all about doing whatever it took for Obama, they don't give a rat's ass about Martin. They were polite enough to check his box because they were already there for TheMessiah, I hate it for you but Martin isn't even breaking 45% this time.

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I've been dying to say this:

I live in Atlanta and campaigned heavily for Obama - and tried my best to do what I could for Martin.

Facts:

If I wanted to attend an event for Martin, I had to go to midtown or Buckhead. Martin, as far as I know, never actively campaigned on the southside or in South Fulton (Note: If you know Atlanta metro area, you know the distinction between midtown, certain parts of DeKalb County/Decatur - and South Fulton. The distinction is not necessarily a social class one, there are affluent/middle-class African Americans everywhere in the metro area. But as in most metro areas, there exists a racialized geography that is complex (it covers a great deal of internal diversity), but works really well as a kind of short-hand.

What I am saying is that the Martin campaign has made NO effort to reach out to "Obama voters" who are not white and/(or?) relatively affluent.

The NYTimes did an article about the race, and suggested to Martin that AA voters would be very important to his chances. Martin responded politely, saying that he was "honored" to have Black support, BUT he had support from all quarters. That may have been true, but I just wonder if he had given 1/2 the effort to ALL of the metro Atlanta area that he gave to midtown and Buckhead...

What position would he be in now??

Frankly, I think Martin decided to use the strategy the guy used in Mississippi - holding Obama at a distance, which was really unnecessary in Georgia (lots of transplants/middle-class/educated voters/voting as a social change tool is in the city's DNA/Black elite political class w/great moblization power). But that's the way he decided to do it. No presence, no signs -nothing on this side of Atlanta.

Nothing...

No visits to the consortium of hbcus...

Nothing.

And I'm paying attention. Other people don't have time to play "where's Jim?"

Many of Obama's supporters were first-time or sporadic voters. It was truly beautiful how disengaged/alienated people found a reason to take a chance on the "system." Those voters, however, needed to be paid specific attention to and given a reason to vote for Martin.

He didn't bother.

I voted for him, of course, and really encouraged others to do the same. As I move through the south side of Atlanta (and more broadly, South Fulton or South or West of Atlanta), you hear the rallying cry: "They don't think we will come out again. But we know it's not over."

So people will come out again. Will it be enough? I kind of doubt it.

But that is Jim Martin's fault. I work with people who know him well, and they tell me he's a great progressive kind-of-guy.

Great. Why is he keeping it a secret?

BTW: AND I can't think of anything more insulting than him showing up in a couple of churches the Sunday before the 1st Tuesday in December.

I don't go to church.

A report from on the ground, if anyone cares...

AND>>>>

Who won the MS Senate race???

Just asking...

Also: His ads left much to be desired, leaving accusations in the Chambliss ads unaswered. AND he gave no one a REASON to vote for him.

Just sayin'...

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And what exactly is the surprise here?

The Republicans always take care of their own. The Democrats never do. Awash in money and with a majority, Schumer and company don't give a damn about that seat. It would be too much like work to really try and put Georgia back in the Democratic column where it belongs.

The more things change...

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Obama sent some of his guys to GA to help out. Lets see if they can work up support.

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Jim Martin has a recommended diary at Daily Kos. I think you all should read it.

http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2008/11/12/113025/52/225/659802

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THE QUESTION IS:

Would you like your daughter to marry a man who
voted with George Bush 95% of the time???????????

Thinking about the choice in that light might cause you to vote for Martin.

BUT MOST PEOPLE DON'T THINK. . . they just look at the TV and, like robots, go vote for 6 more years of Republican Ass Kissing.

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I would like to see the Democrats dispatch Sens. Webb and Bill Nelson to Georgia. That would keep it regional, which I think is key in Georgia. The Republicans are looking desperate by sending all of their national candidates to prop Chambliss up. Besides, the economy has soured even more since November 4th. Hammer the 6.5% unemployment rate and all of the other wrong direction numbers.

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mphillip, good post. I think you're right on the money. I also live in Ga and I think Martin made a mistake by not more assidiously courting AA voters.

On the other hand, have you noticed that Chambliss' new ads don't mention or depict Obama at all? The ads say we should be scared of Pelosi and Reid and the "liberals." But no Obama. It seems that Chambliss and the Repubs recognize how potent Obama is -- something Martin hasn't seemed to grasp yet.

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SDA1:

I did notice one Chambliss ad which linked OBAMA (in bright red letters)w/Martin in a joint effort to raise everyone's taxes...

And, I remember thinking when I saw it: Good!!! The link is a good one...

Do more of that.

Again, if I did not learn anything else in this last election is that ground games rule the day and determine outcomes. I just don't see it here for Martin. It could exist - I just don't see it.

And Obama's nat'l people cannot do it for Martin.

P.S.: I read Martin's entry at Daily Kos. Wonderful. I read Daily Kos. I don't know how many sporadic voters read Daily Kos, and I don't know how many of them/and young voters remember the horrific campaign against Clelland. I do. I most certainly do. But I'm 54, regular voter - someone who was coming out anyway to vote for Martin.

You know, Martin may just not be that great a candidate. It happens.

Chambliss (from my point-of-view), is an awful candidate: Rough, prone to gaffes, awkward, deer-in-headlights affect...

So what will be the difference between 2 (again, from my point of view)mediocre candidates?

Yep. Ground game/connecting to voters around issues OR identity (That's the connection Chambliss is making: Come fellow and sister white people in Georgia: Let's come together to stop Martin/Atlanta (Atlanta: Multiple meanings here. The identity thing is really complex - but is usually effective).

I'm going to find out how to phone bank, canvass ...and I hope I'm pleasantly surprised on December 2nd.


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