Franken Makes Gains In First Day Of Recount, But It's Far From Over
The first day of the Minnesota recount is behind us, and it's been a good day for Al Franken. GOP Sen. Norm Coleman's lead has been reduced from 215 votes to 174, a decrease of 41 votes, with 18% of the total ballots recounted.
Franken's biggest gains came from the manual count of some precincts in St. Louis County -- part of the Northeastern Minnesota "Iron Range" region that is heavily loyal to the Democrats -- where some ballots were too faintly marked to be picked up by the older optical-scan machines used there. Those St. Louis County precincts alone gave Franken a net gain of 28 votes.
The major caveat here is that we shouldn't put too much stock in the swing from one particular day or one particular batch of ballots. Over the course of the day Coleman's lead shrank, grew and shrank again, and there's no telling what will happen tomorrow and over the next few weeks.
That said, today's swing to Franken should be seen as reason for cautious optimism among Democrats.
Yes, Virginia, there is a Santa Claus.
November 19, 2008 10:43 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yep, and projected out at this rate you can call me al wins by 278 votes. Looking good.
November 19, 2008 10:44 PM | Reply | Permalink
It's quite amusing and instructive to read Whistleblower's blog over at the Star-Trib, and to read commenters at both articles and blog there.
The US is one divided country. When's Civil War II starting, I wonder?
I'll come with a challenge of my own. The pundits have it that it's a disadvantage to Franken that the GOP districts are being counted last, and that the present trend in his favor is due to early districts being Dem strongholds.
However, all the overvotes have been in Coleman's favor, until now - and that's a disturbing trend of its own; and I'm pretty certain that the number of overvotes will increase in GOP districts, and that's why the GOP are so adamant to resist this entire recount.
Coleman's lead will go up in flames once the count moves to the GOP strongholds, and there will be some serious accusations raised as to the integrity of the process in those areas.
This will keep the popcorn industry happy in these dire financial times!
November 19, 2008 11:35 PM | Reply | Permalink
Looks like Franken put Pat behind him.
November 19, 2008 11:45 PM | Reply | Permalink
Minnesota Public Radio has pictures of some actual challenged ballots
here. I have no idea how representative these are, but to me, the majority would go in Al’s favor.
November 19, 2008 11:49 PM | Reply | Permalink
Anybody else notice that Quimby's people are trying to have it both ways relative to "dots" in ovals? (Hint: #8 and #10 - dots are used to indicate opposite intent in differing situations - on #8 they say "...arguing the voter didn't intend to vote for Franken, because of the small dot inside the bubble next to Dean Barkley’s name.", and on #19, "...while the voter filled in the bubble next to Dean Barkley, the voter had intended to vote for Coleman because of the small dot inside Coleman's bubble."
November 20, 2008 12:43 AM | Reply | Permalink
Well it makes me feel better actually, if Franken is picking up a good amount of votes even with stupid things like those being challenged then theres a good change that he has picked up even more.
November 20, 2008 12:48 AM | Reply | Permalink
Ha ha...that set of ballots led me to two conclusions...1) Minnesotans aren't as bright as I originally thought and deserve what ever they get out of this... and 2)I joining the Lizard People Party.
November 20, 2008 8:13 AM | Reply | Permalink
Well, I can't speak for that in general, but it would go a long way in explaining the re-election of Michelle Bachmann.
November 20, 2008 8:55 AM | Reply | Permalink
November 20, 2008 9:58 AM | Reply | Permalink
I'm one of the "keyboard challenged" I can put down about 40 wpm but have to look at the keys to do it. Obviously, since I'm too lazy to use the preview function that was so graciously provided by the hosts, there are usually some typos in my comments. Most are spotted right after I press the "Submit" button.
November 20, 2008 10:19 AM | Reply | Permalink
...and to be fair. I did make the same general assessment of Palm Beach County residents who wanted to vote for Gore but ended up voting for Buchanan.
November 20, 2008 10:29 AM | Reply | Permalink
He's good enough and he's smart enough and gosh darnit people like him.
November 19, 2008 11:56 PM | Reply | Permalink
Well, Ah like him!
November 20, 2008 1:07 AM | Reply | Permalink
Don't mean to be a downer, but I doubt Franken will overhaul Coleman by the time all non-disputed votes are tallied. Half of today's gains were from one county because of the older scanners they were using for the original count, and that is unlikely to be replicated anywhere else.
In the end, it will all boil down to an ugly, protracted battle in and out of the courts over each and every disputed ballot (and there will probably be over 1,500 of them to be fought over, which is probably several times greater than the final recount margin of victory).
I have no idea who will come out on top at this point, but I would still pick Coleman as the slight favorite for now.
November 20, 2008 2:23 AM | Reply | Permalink
I think that Coleman's people are challenging more because they want to make sure he has the lead in the undisputed ballots. When it goes to the referees whoever came out of the pileup holding the ball usually get's the decision.
November 20, 2008 3:10 AM | Reply | Permalink
I get the idea, Eric. Al makes gains, but it still isn't for sure.
LOL! Just laughing at the last two posts.
Morning peeps!
November 20, 2008 8:05 AM | Reply | Permalink
Good to see you back, Tena! Are you back in Dallas?
November 20, 2008 8:56 AM | Reply | Permalink
Good to see you too. Yes I am and let me tell you - I walked in and it was like there was a giant bucket balanced on the top of the door that fell on my head. It wasn't full of water - it was full of stuff that needed to be done yesterday.
I cannot believe Thanksgiving is next week and 3 weeks later it's Christmas - jebus!
I'm telling the world to take a hike on Dec. 19 = I have tickets to see Lil Wayne - the hottest motherfucking thing on two legs. I cannot wait - nevermind Christmas. I want Lil Wayne. LOL!
November 20, 2008 9:05 AM | Reply | Permalink
Glad you had a safe trip back!
I can relate about the holidays kind of sneaking up on you this year....I feel like I was holding my breath until the election and now everything's sort of rushing back at me.
Congrats on the tickets to see Lil Wayne! What a perfect, early Xmas present!
November 20, 2008 9:16 AM | Reply | Permalink
Thanks. I can't shut up about it cause I'm so excited. I just found out he was coming to town yesterday and got tickets last night and I'm beside myself.
I cannot believe it.
I'm taking my two 21 year old friends - they are so excited they're ready to jump out of their skins.
I love being Auntie Mame. Since I can't be a fairy godmother, which would definitely rock, I'll take this.
November 20, 2008 9:32 AM | Reply | Permalink
Auntie Mame? I always pictured you more as Anne Bancroft than Rosalind Russell.
November 20, 2008 9:52 AM | Reply | Permalink
What are you after, Wallace? I mean, that was a major compliment.
I thank you very much for that.
November 20, 2008 9:59 AM | Reply | Permalink
Ha ha...I'm just a TCM fan...spouting off classic movie trivia...
November 20, 2008 10:07 AM | Reply | Permalink
Coleman is not a bad Senator so I will be OK with the outcome in any event. This race is really a wonderful example of democracy in action. I want every single ballot to be recounted. Prove to the world that our votes count.
November 20, 2008 8:53 AM | Reply | Permalink