Final Polls Suggest Obama Will Win With About 52%
In the home stretch of the campaign, the final polls are starting to show some sense of convergence in predicting Barack Obama's vote total: The common prediction is that he will get about 52% of the national vote or perhaps even better, the best showing for a Democrat since LBJ's landslide in 1964.
As we noted yesterday, the Pew poll is predicting Obama will get 52% of the vote to McCain's 46%, based on allocating undecideds by their answers on key issues. But other polls are showing a similar pattern.
The new Ipsos/McClatchy poll has Obama at 50% to McCain's 42% among likely voters. Ipsos also allocated undecideds base on the issues, and they ended up with Obama 53%, McCain 46%.
On top of that, the new Fox News poll has Obama at 50% to McCain's 43% among likely voters. If you want to venture a guess at how the undecideds in that poll would break, take a look at these two questions, asked of all respondents:
Do you think Barack Obama has the right experience to be president?Yes 52, No 45
Do you think John McCain can bring the right kind of change to Washington?
Yes 43, No 52
When I spoke yesterday with Scott Keeter from the Pew Research Center, he explained that the answers to those two questions -- whether Obama is qualified, and whether McCain would bring change to Washington -- were the best predictors of voter preference.
THIS
November 3, 2008 3:04 PM | Reply | Permalink
IS
November 3, 2008 3:07 PM | Reply | Permalink
EXCELLENT
November 3, 2008 3:09 PM | Reply | Permalink
BUSINESS!
November 3, 2008 3:14 PM | Reply | Permalink
AND
November 3, 2008 3:16 PM | Reply | Permalink
PLEASURE!
November 3, 2008 4:25 PM | Reply | Permalink
NEWS
November 3, 2008 3:16 PM | Reply | Permalink
FOR A HUKILAU
November 3, 2008 3:28 PM | Reply | Permalink
Oh, please Great Flying Spaghetti Monster, let me have won the Obama Victory Party in Chicago Ticket Raffle.
I promise to burn my Adkins Diet books in gratitude.
November 3, 2008 3:05 PM | Reply | Permalink
IS TRULY A WONDERFUL DAY IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD.
GOBAMA ~ 08 - 16
November 3, 2008 3:07 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'm not really sure how you've done this calculation. You've got two predictions (as opposed to polls) which fully allocate the undecideds based on their internals. One puts Obama at 52, another at 53. I'd add the Gallup projection, which has Obama winning the race, 55-44%. So that's three polls. If you really want an average prediction, I'd say 53% is a little closer to the mark.
November 3, 2008 3:07 PM | Reply | Permalink
53% is probably conservative. Right now he's standing at about 51-52%, with about 5% undecided. Since 1948 the undecided have never broken more than 2-1 for any candidate, so Obama's share of the undecided will be not less than about 2%. That puts him at 53% at the lowest, and probably higher.
Also, if you look at the polls who reach cellphones, the margin is 52.7-43.5%, so we could be seeing 55%.
November 3, 2008 3:33 PM | Reply | Permalink
My bet is 56-43.
November 3, 2008 3:38 PM | Reply | Permalink
But Orrin Hatch tells me McCain is closing fast....
November 3, 2008 3:09 PM | Reply | Permalink
....And if there is one place you should go for rigorous statistical analysis, it is Orrin Hatch.
November 3, 2008 3:33 PM | Reply | Permalink
Ya know ya shoulda battened down all them Hatches!
November 3, 2008 4:34 PM | Reply | Permalink
Tena...
My partner and I will be thinking of you as we stand in Grant Park in Chicago tomorrow evening for the Barack Obama Celebration.
When it is finally called for Obama, tears will run down my face, and I hope to grab and hug as many Obama supporters as I possibly can.
This will be my first political gathering of this magnitude. I am so excited. I wish you could be there to whoop it up with me. Thank goodness I managed to swing a ticket!
Obama '08
November 3, 2008 3:11 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yes, I'm making the trek to Louisville to be at John Yarmuth's victory party which is also the Obama victory party.
I want to be among as many Obama supporters as possible, so that I will not be the only one sobbing my heart out in joy.
November 3, 2008 3:14 PM | Reply | Permalink
Thank you for thinking of me.
I would give anything to be there. I threw a last hundred at the chance.
Didn't think I'd score.
But I'll know you're there.
November 3, 2008 3:29 PM | Reply | Permalink
How about a sign that says TPM! Maybe you can get it on TV.
November 3, 2008 3:39 PM | Reply | Permalink
Sounds about right - the popular vote will be very close. Wasn't that about what Gore beat Bush in 2000 by?
Oh shit, jinx! I take it back!!! I take it back!!!
November 3, 2008 3:14 PM | Reply | Permalink
No, Gore was nowhere near that. He got just over 48%.
November 3, 2008 3:33 PM | Reply | Permalink
Nate Silver: What to watch for hour by hour tomorrow night;
http://www.newsweek.com/id/167186
November 3, 2008 3:15 PM | Reply | Permalink
And Nate also suggests that we should be wary of tomorrow's exit polls.
November 3, 2008 3:27 PM | Reply | Permalink
In 2004, the only time during the whole campaign when I had even a tiny sliver of hope was when the exit polls indicated that Kerry was heavily favored and even hinted at a possible Kerry landslide. And we know how that turned out. I'm mistrustful of polls in general, but I will never pay attention to exit polling again.
November 3, 2008 3:36 PM | Reply | Permalink
I too will never trust exit polls again. I wish the media would do away with them. Hearing that Kerry was up during the 2004 exit polls, then watching him lose later that evening, was crushing to me. I plan to stick my fingers in my ears and say "can't hear you, can't hear you" when they start reporting exit polls tomorrow.
November 3, 2008 4:17 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'm glad he's posting on that. Because with so many people having voted ahead of time, the exit polls have no way of really adjusting their results to take into account the voters who have already voted (where there was no exit polling). So that means the data on demographics and reasons for voting will be suspect. In some states, where there is NO early voting, the exit polls may be more trustworthy. But if you aggregate the data from states with no early voting and states with early voting, then you are aggregating fudged data with better data... and you get fudged results overall.
I'm looking forward to his reasoning about mistrusting them. But having taken 3 stats courses, I simply can't see how they are going to be able to draw valid conclusions on the basis of flawed data.
The election results will tell us who won. But as for why or how, it's gonna be anyone's guess.
November 3, 2008 3:37 PM | Reply | Permalink
Can't they just factor in polls that include those that have already voted? Perhaps I'm missing something…
November 3, 2008 3:43 PM | Reply | Permalink
Here's the thing, Ben. Exit polls are based on voters exiting the poll. So we know they were actually people who went out to vote. Polling by phone does not tell us the person actually voted, even if they say they did. And the phone polls use a much smaller sample of people - not actual voters.
Thus, the data from tomorrow will be based, in many states, on a smaller sample of voters, not a random sample of all actual voters, but a self-selected sample, since many voted already.
And it's the demographic data, put together, with the way people answer the questions about what mattered in deciding on their vote, that these exit pollers have used in the past to draw conclusions about the meaning of the outcome.
You're right that they may try to "fudge" based on people they spoke to before the election - or even afterwards, but again, there's no proof they actually voted. They use smaller samples. And you can't draw firm, valid conclusions. So your data are somewhat fudged and thus your conclusions aren't trustworthy.
There may be other problems with that kind of poll, but these spring to mind quickly for me.
November 3, 2008 3:51 PM | Reply | Permalink
Is it true there is no exit polling on early voting? Wouldn't the exit pollers show up a week or so early along with the early voters to include those in the sample?
November 3, 2008 3:59 PM | Reply | Permalink
Early voting goes on so long. You could never pay for the huge coverage. And sometimes people trickle in, so to get their sample in some states, it might be 10 people in a day. Much harder to exit poll for early voting.
November 3, 2008 8:14 PM | Reply | Permalink
Um, the reason the exit polls were so far off is because the f*cking Rehooligans stole the election. The people from Stanford proved that.
468 EVs. Major Landslide. Big Blue Wave Comin!
November 3, 2008 4:32 PM | Reply | Permalink
I don't know about this quick calls hype. I remember from the primaries that Obama often looked bad during the early results, as the smaller rural districts came in, and caught up when the cities reported later.
November 3, 2008 3:42 PM | Reply | Permalink
All else aside,,,, will TPM go on mega site crash mode tomorrow? Any number of sticky wickets today, reading, posting, and getting onto the site.
I was hoping TPM would be my voice of reason and sanity tomorrow,,,, hope it works.
November 3, 2008 3:15 PM | Reply | Permalink
MCCAIN...
November 3, 2008 3:28 PM | Reply | Permalink
Some very sad news...
http://marcambinder.theatlantic.com/archives/2008/11/obamas_nevada_state_director_d.php
November 3, 2008 3:29 PM | Reply | Permalink
RIP. What a shame - at only 44.
November 3, 2008 3:41 PM | Reply | Permalink
And now MSNBC.com is reporting that Obama's grandmother has died. I don't know that I'd be able to stand the emotional swings that these folks will be going through in the next 24 - 48 hours!
November 3, 2008 5:11 PM | Reply | Permalink
TPM, that Google map you've got on the front page is just super!
I'm very impressed. Thanks!
November 3, 2008 3:30 PM | Reply | Permalink
GMTA!
I was just going to post that - that map rocks, guys!
November 3, 2008 3:31 PM | Reply | Permalink
State totals pop up as I mouse over every state EXCEPT ALASKA!
Hmmph. TPM's idea of voter suppression.
November 3, 2008 4:44 PM | Reply | Permalink
Indeed. Very impressive.
November 3, 2008 3:41 PM | Reply | Permalink
Great Endorsement by Sullivan.
http://andrewsullivan.theatlantic.com/the_daily_dish/2008/11/barack-obama-fo.html
November 3, 2008 3:30 PM | Reply | Permalink
Excellent article!
November 3, 2008 3:56 PM | Reply | Permalink
and the best line of Sullivan's endorsement is....
"If I have to take an ideological hit to head toward fiscal solvency, I'll put country before ideology."
November 3, 2008 4:07 PM | Reply | Permalink
That was a good line.
But Sully is very righteous on the rule of law, the constitution, and torture.
That piece brought tears -
November 3, 2008 4:23 PM | Reply | Permalink
52-46 (with 2 for minor candidates) is about where I've been for a while. It'll do nicely. You have to go all the way back to Johnson to find a Dem doing better or even as well. (But I am certainly not discounting the delightful possibility of an even bigger margin.)
November 3, 2008 3:31 PM | Reply | Permalink
Did Fox News have Rove on explianing why their own poll is wrong?
November 3, 2008 3:32 PM | Reply | Permalink
OT perhaps, but saw this AP news story and thought I'd share, and give a "STFU" shout-out to Foghat in case his troll ass is still out there. Months ago he'd given some bullshit Photoshop reason why Obama's birth certificate was a fake. Not so!
November 3, 2008 3:34 PM | Reply | Permalink
Thanks for that. Just to be a snot, I posted the link over on NoQuarter.
November 3, 2008 3:54 PM | Reply | Permalink
I can't believe 48% of the population believes McCain will be a better choice than Obama. You have to winder what would have happened if McCain picked a better VP, or if the Economic Meltdown didn't happen two months later...
November 3, 2008 3:40 PM | Reply | Permalink
It would be less than 48 when accounting for 3rd party voters, more like 46, but you still have a good point.
November 3, 2008 3:59 PM | Reply | Permalink
I ran across one woman who said she had to vote for McCain because her family was in the military. Another one who wasn't voting for Obama because he was a muslim. Another, who was African-American, said no way in hell would whites elect one of them. Another who tore up his ballot because he had no faith in either, and another who voted for McCain because he didn't fell Obama understood the ground war in Iraq and Afghanistan..he's has 3 tours under his belt already.
I suspect these are isolated situations at an oversea military installation, but could be representative of the country as a whole since the people here are from all parts of the country, various age groups and ethnic backgrounds.
November 3, 2008 4:07 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'm thinking it's the first.
November 3, 2008 4:21 PM | Reply | Permalink
I was driving around in Brevard County, Florida and saw a man putting a sign in the ground that read:
OBAMA:
CHRISTIAN OR MUSLIM?
WHO KNOWS?
Fuck that guy. I hope he crawls back into his cave tomorrow night when McCain gets crushed and never comes back out.
November 3, 2008 4:45 PM | Reply | Permalink
November 3, 2008 3:41 PM | Reply | Permalink
If it's a 52% national vote and an Electoral College landslide, ol' GWB's goin to have a lot of 'splanin to do the them folks there in Iraq and Afghanistan. . .I really think the new "shadow Gov't" will need to get deeply involved early and often.
November 3, 2008 3:45 PM | Reply | Permalink
If it's a 52% national vote and an Electoral College landslide, ol' GWB's goin to have a lot of 'splanin to do the them folks there in Iraq and Afghanistan. . .I really think the new "shadow Gov't" will need to get deeply involved early and often.
November 3, 2008 3:46 PM | Reply | Permalink
I can't believe people can't believe that a minority of people might be capable of anything.
They could be one issue voters or 3 issue voters: God, gays and guns, for instance.
But it's a minority any way you slice it.
So why not concentrate on the majority?
November 3, 2008 3:46 PM | Reply | Permalink
I have a question for people who have already voted. Is it even harder waiting for this to be over? I'm in MD and we don't have early voting, although it's ballot referendum tomorrow. I can't wait to vote tomorrow morning, but I can imagine if you voted a week or so ago, this must be agony.
November 3, 2008 3:47 PM | Reply | Permalink
I voted about 10 days ago. I don't know that it is any worse for me. In some ways it is less nerve-wracking because I know my vote is already there - they had to sign for it.
I think it makes it easier.
November 3, 2008 3:48 PM | Reply | Permalink
Thanks. I am hoping the MD referendum passes. Early voting is the way to go. I'd feel better not having to worry about lines tomorrow.
November 3, 2008 3:51 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yeah, when I lived in MD,the lines could be kind of crazy. Do you guys still use electronic machines without a paper trail? Once when I voted there, I hit the "Vote" button and that was it. Kind of anticlimactic....
November 3, 2008 4:01 PM | Reply | Permalink
We are using touch screens in my county. It varies across the state. I think MD is in the process of converting to touch screens with a paper record. I am in a fairly rural area, so it probably won't be too bad, but the Bethesda/Baltimore corridor is expecting long waits.
November 3, 2008 4:08 PM | Reply | Permalink
Cool. A paper record for those touch screens was definitely on the want list for a lot of people.
November 3, 2008 4:16 PM | Reply | Permalink
I don't think it's harder or easier myself. I voted last Tuesday. We still have to wait for results, just like you.
November 3, 2008 3:55 PM | Reply | Permalink
It kind of did feel strange when I was working in GOTV activities yesterday. Me and so many I talked to already had voted.
So I guess my feeling is that it is great to have already voted (especially in NM, which needs all the help it can get counting vote-wise), but kind of weird not being in the party tomorrow. I know people who skipped early voting just to be a part of the craziness tomorrow.
November 3, 2008 4:10 PM | Reply | Permalink
Right, like driving to the post office at midnight April 15 to mail your tax return!
November 3, 2008 4:31 PM | Reply | Permalink
good analogy. Or buying Christmas presents on Dec. 24?
November 3, 2008 4:37 PM | Reply | Permalink
That's considered crazy?
November 3, 2008 4:50 PM | Reply | Permalink
That's considered crazy?
November 3, 2008 4:53 PM | Reply | Permalink
so crazy I had to ask twice. Damn TPM is getting bogged down. Well, I guess that's a damn good thing, so I won't bitch.
November 3, 2008 6:30 PM | Reply | Permalink
My prediction:
Obama: 355
McCain: 183
Popular Vote: 55%-44%
November 3, 2008 4:09 PM | Reply | Permalink
I like it.
Did you enter it in the HuffPo Prediction Sweepstakes?
November 3, 2008 4:15 PM | Reply | Permalink
Obama is pulling away as we speak. Given another couple of weeks, he might have reached 54 or 55%.
November 3, 2008 5:42 PM | Reply | Permalink
Obama is pulling away as we speak. Given another couple of weeks, he might have reached 54 or 55%.
November 3, 2008 5:44 PM | Reply | Permalink
I've gotten three (coun 'em) GOTV calls in the past 12 hours. Virginia is covered. Everything that can be done is being done. The ground game here, like elsewhere, is just incredible.
November 3, 2008 9:38 PM | Reply | Permalink