Final Marist Poll: Obama 52%, McCain 43%
The final national poll from Marist is now out, and it's presenting a now-familiar number: Obama 52%, McCain 43%, with a ±3.5% margin of error. Another three percent say they'll support other candidates, and two percent are still undecided.
As we noted earlier today, a whole lot of polls have been converging around a figure of Obama receiving something in the neighborhood of 52% of the national popular vote.
Some of the pollsters have come to that conclusion by allocating undecideds, using demographic analyses and voters' answers to issue questions. Others haven't performed any allocations. But those have tend to push leaners more, getting a lower number of undecideds. In the polls where no allocation has been done, something has to happen with the remaining undecideds. So each candidates' final number should be at least a bit higher.
Polls can be wrong, of course, but it does seem worth noting that so many firms have reached roughly the same results, with all of them using different methodologies and competing for credibility.















omg, First!
November 4, 2008 1:29 AM | Reply | Permalink
It still tickles me that McCain's own Republican state of Arizona is still within the margin of error.
I can't wait for McCain-Palin's concession speech, and it would KILL me if they lost Arizona to Obama.
Arizonans for Obama!
--------------------------
Obama 2008
“Mad McCain” videos: http://tv1.com/playlists/show/11
November 4, 2008 5:48 AM | Reply | Permalink
Calling for Obama today, I got someone who said he was voting for Elmer Fudd. I guess he's in the 3% who'll vote for "Other Candidates."
November 4, 2008 1:34 AM | Reply | Permalink
I'm pretty sure that's a "lean McCain."
November 4, 2008 5:29 AM | Reply | Permalink
LMAO!
Ow' get that waskawy Obama!
November 4, 2008 8:30 AM | Reply | Permalink
*pin drop*
November 4, 2008 2:23 AM | Reply | Permalink
Final IBD/TIPP poll out just now, too. You know, the people who always tell you how they were the most accurate pollster in '04, but were strangely off from the general results of all the other trackers this year by giving results that favored McCain by 4-5 extra points?
Well, their final result was
O 47.5
M 42.4
and then they go on to 'allocate' undecideds, by giving Obama 4%, McCain 2%. In other words, O 51, M 44.
Funny how that allocation makes their poll align most closely with all the other trackers. One may be led to think that they were afraid of missing the boat, and chickened out at the last second, tweaking their result to match everyone else's expectations.
One may, indeed.
November 4, 2008 2:54 AM | Reply | Permalink
That is EXACTLY what they did. You know what "allocating" voters mean? It mean I put who is voting for who at my own disgression. How lame.
November 4, 2008 6:40 AM | Reply | Permalink
...not even a mouse.
November 4, 2008 2:56 AM | Reply | Permalink
All right, on my way to Philly to knock on doors. Let's do this thing, y'all.
November 4, 2008 4:43 AM | Reply | Permalink
I hope it is slow here at the moment because all the US based TPMers are sleeping to be sure that they have plenty of energy for the day.
November 4, 2008 5:30 AM | Reply | Permalink
I'm off to my assignment precinct for the Voter Protection Program, 50 miles away. Let's make him proud today!
November 4, 2008 5:34 AM | Reply | Permalink
Good Morning.
I'll admit I couldn't sleep much last night.
Here is the link to the final moments of the final Obama election rally in VA.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r_ajLsajACk
Fired up and ready to go.
Lets make this a new day for us and this nation.
VOTR
VOLUNTEER
Let's bring this baby home
November 4, 2008 5:55 AM | Reply | Permalink
What a wacky funster that McSlime is. You gotta love a guy with a sense of humour...although, in his case, I'm prepared to make an exception.
And now, I'm going to put the great Ray Charles on the CD player, crack a beer and listen to "Hit The Road, Jack" over and over again. And before anyone chides me for not getting out there and hustling the votes...I would, but I'm in London.
But I'm with you in spirit...
November 4, 2008 6:09 AM | Reply | Permalink
We're having an indian summer afternoon in the eifel area in Germany. Kinda reminds of being at the center of an eye of a hurricane not knowing exactly when the full force of the storm is gonna hit.
November 4, 2008 8:40 AM | Reply | Permalink
Thanks, Kash,,, that was better than a second cup of coffee !
Barack is Jefferson, Lincoln, FDR, and RFK rolled into one,,,,, and the whole is greater than the sum of its parts.
November 4, 2008 6:09 AM | Reply | Permalink
Thanks, Kash,,, that was better than a second cup of coffee !
Barack is Jefferson, Lincoln, FDR, and RFK rolled into one,,,,, and the whole is greater than the sum of its parts.
November 4, 2008 6:13 AM | Reply | Permalink
He is like those combined transformers.
November 4, 2008 6:42 AM | Reply | Permalink
I had the alarm set for 6 am. I was dreaming about dawdling around the house, then thinking, damn! I gotta get my ass out and vote! Then the cat starts meowing. Get up at 5:20 am.
Anyway... Are we ready to make a LANDSLIDE happen?
November 4, 2008 6:27 AM | Reply | Permalink
I am so disappointed that I am not in the US for today.
I have an American flag taped to my monitor and made a special election play list for my iPod (Got Battle Hymn of the Republic going at the moment).
In a couple years Barack Obama will be the first president that my kids will be aware of. What a great start to an involved life.
Hail to the Chief!
November 4, 2008 6:49 AM | Reply | Permalink
Observations from Juan Cole this morning:
Tuesday, November 04, 2008
The Ghoul's Glossary: the 2008 Election
Alaska: The only one of the 50 states where secessionists are considered American patriots rather than traitors.
Catholic working class: Synonym for "feminist."
Communist: 1. A believer in a graduated income tax ("Communists" include Adam Smith and 81% of professional American economists). 2. When modified by 'Chinese' : A supplier of retail goods to Walmart.
Friends: Persons whom John McCain does not know and does not actually like very much, but whom he wishes to persuade to vote for him by grimacing at them while gesturing as though he is measuring their waists for new pants.
Georgia: A country that can do no wrong. (Antonym of: Russia, Iran).
Green energy: 1. Nonpolluting, renewable, energy sources such as wind and solar. 2. Pennsylvania coal.
Iran: A largely Shiite country that would attack the United States and impose Sunni Bin Laden rule on us if only they had Bin Laden or any weapons.
Iraq: A largely Shiite country that would attack the United States and impose Sunni Bin Laden rule on us if only they had Bin Laden or any weapons.
Masochist: See "Pakistan."
Maverick: Someone who votes for the status quo 90 percent of the time.
Muslim: A Christian from Kansas who has lived in both Hawaii and Illinois.
Neoconservatism: The theory that Muslims would be grateful if only the United States would invade and militarily occupy them without provocation.
Pakistan: A largely Sunni country that does have Bin Laden and nuclear weapons, but which declares itself an ally of America in the war on terror and allows itself to be routinely attacked by the United States.
Palestinians: Dispossessed, displaced and stateless persons who are ungrateful for their condition and therefore vaguely dangerous.
Victory: (This word has been left undefined.)
Withdrawal: A way to avoid the worst consequences of a moment of pleasurable conquest, which, however, often comes too late to avoid years of support payments.
Youth vote: The expectation that 21-year-olds will save the nation from the folly of their elders, in preference to gulping shots from the navels of hot barmaids during a Tuesday happy hour.
Zionism: The theory that because Nazis hated Jews, the latter would be much better off all gathered together on disputed land in the midst of 300 million Arabs and Iranians.
posted by Juan Cole @ 11/04/2008 12:11:00 AM 0 comments | Share:
November 4, 2008 7:53 AM | Reply | Permalink
Best night of sleep I've had in two weeks.
Amost there.
November 4, 2008 8:08 AM | Reply | Permalink
Best night of sleep I've had in two weeks.
Amost there.
November 4, 2008 8:09 AM | Reply | Permalink
You peeps are up awfully early!
November 4, 2008 8:12 AM | Reply | Permalink
Well, I don't know about the rest of the country, but the polls opened here at 6 AM. I got there at about a quarter past, only to be greeted with the longest line I've ever seen at a voting place, which is saying something since I now live in Charlottesville, VA and used to live in Atlanta, GA. I heard young people leaving the polling place saying they had gotten there at 5:45. These are the same kids that'll do whatever it takes not to have an 8 o'clock class on their schedule, so you can see the excitement!
November 4, 2008 8:16 AM | Reply | Permalink
Ditto Ben. I believe in early voting because it makes my vote count more :) I was at the polls by 6:30. Usually I'm in the single digits at my polling machine. This year I was # 51. At 6:30 in the morning. In a heavily minority district. (There are stereotypes, and then there is reality. Go to vote at a minority district after work, and you are going to have a looooooooong wait ahead of you). And the line for my polling machine was nowhere near as long for the other two. It was a beautiful sight.
November 4, 2008 8:30 AM | Reply | Permalink
Gotta lot of stuff to do! Unfortunately for me, most of it is work. But my vote is in. Feels real good.
(Loved the cranky old guy with the McCain button in front of me who held up the line because he couldn't read directions on how to fill out the ballot... )
November 4, 2008 8:26 AM | Reply | Permalink
Fired up and ready to vote! Let's all get out there and get out the vote. I'm going to take my 13 month old grandson with me to hold up a sign at the local high school voting location in Vermont. I don't know how long that will last. It's what I can do, and cover for my husband around the house so he can canvas in New Hampshire.
November 4, 2008 8:12 AM | Reply | Permalink
Fired up and ready to vote! Let's all get out there and get out the vote. I'm going to take my 13 month old grandson with me to hold up a sign at the local high school voting location in Vermont. I don't know how long that will last. It's what I can do, and cover for my husband around the house so he can canvas in New Hampshire.
November 4, 2008 8:14 AM | Reply | Permalink
Good morning, people!
I'm fired up and ready to go!
Let's make history happen!
LANDSLIDE! (I hoping for it)
November 4, 2008 8:15 AM | Reply | Permalink
Yes and yes and yes!
November 4, 2008 8:21 AM | Reply | Permalink
Mornin', peeps.
I just got done voting - got there at 6:30, by the time the polls opened there were about 150 people in line.
Wisconsin has same-day registration, so the guy in front of me who's address had changed just had to go over to another table to re-register. Wonderful - no problem! In most states, you're just SOL. And our polls are open late, and if you're in line when they close you still have the right to vote. (Or register and vote.) I've gotta say, we do some things right here.
I heard on the radio that Minnesota might get 80% turnout. Yes - EIGHTY percent! (bye, bye, Norm! And take your suits with you!)
I hate to be a wet blanket on the McCain campaign, but I don't think he's gonna get WI or MN... :-)
November 4, 2008 8:22 AM | Reply | Permalink
Just did some rogue GOTV work. Got one of those "Vote for Bill Cosby" e-mail forwards from a family friend. Hit reply all, respectfully disagreed w/ Mr. Bill and tacked on the check registration/polling place website and WI voter registration info, along with a rather chipper call to vote. Kind of scary, actually, since I only knew 2 of the 15 or so peeps on the e-mail, but what the hell -- this is no time for timidity, right?
November 4, 2008 8:22 AM | Reply | Permalink
If you didn't already, you could follow up with this:
http://www.snopes.com/politics/soapbox/platform.asp
November 4, 2008 8:39 AM | Reply | Permalink
Bittersweet mid-day here in Germany... getting ready for the all-nighter/Breakfast with America expat huddle. Sunny, cool, the windows wide open, Curtis Mayfield and the Impressions LOUD for the neighbors... who doesn't need a little Chicago soul right now.
Keep on pushing. Get out the vote over there. Have a ball.
November 4, 2008 8:24 AM | Reply | Permalink
I am waiting for my mom to get home so the entire family can go together. I don't care how long that line is I am ready to vote!
November 4, 2008 8:29 AM | Reply | Permalink
My son drove home from college last night, 4-hour drive, he got in at 3 am. He wanted to vote with his family, he says. It's his first presidential election. We are letting him sleep another hour then we are getting in line. Long long lines all over MD and VA according to local news.
Fire up and ready to win!
November 4, 2008 9:01 AM | Reply | Permalink
My son drove home from college last night, 4-hour drive, he got in at 3 am. He wanted to vote with his family, he says. It's his first presidential election. We are letting him sleep another hour then we are getting in line. Long long lines all over MD and VA according to local news.
Fired up and ready to win!
November 4, 2008 9:03 AM | Reply | Permalink
sorry, we are getting these double posts again.
November 4, 2008 9:07 AM | Reply | Permalink
sorry, we are getting these double posts again.
November 4, 2008 9:20 AM | Reply | Permalink
I VOTED!!!!
WoooooOOOOoooo-
ooooOOOOooooooooOOOOoooo-
ooooOOOOooooooooOOOOooooo-
oooOOOOooooooooOOOOoooooo-
ooOOOOooooooooOOOOooooooo-
oOOOOooooooooOOOOoooooooo-
OOOOooooooooOOOOooooooooO-OOOooooooooOOOOooooooooOO-OOooooooooOOOOooooooooOOO-OooooooooOOOOoooo!!!!!!!!!!!
November 4, 2008 8:43 AM | Reply | Permalink
Look at those Republicans trying to steal it early.
http://townhall.com/blog/g/cf47766b-5a6d-44ab-95e7-ce60631bcadc
November 4, 2008 8:47 AM | Reply | Permalink
Are you believing that story? I don't believe everything I read over at DailyKOS, and I don't think you should believe everything you read over at townhall. Did you notice the conspicuous lack of sources?
November 4, 2008 8:51 AM | Reply | Permalink
Wah? That link was to an unsourced chunk of BS? Who'da thunk it?!?!
Wallace, I say to you, "WOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO-
OOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO-
oooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo!
Now, I will go GOTV, and think of all those sad, unhappy Republicans.
November 4, 2008 8:56 AM | Reply | Permalink
Yawn! I hope you voted already and aren't wasting time posting this unverifiable nonsense. If it turns out to be true, then shame on the folks kicking them out before they could get around to harassing potential voters. Oh wait....
November 4, 2008 8:59 AM | Reply | Permalink
I just got done voting! Whoo hoo. Felt so great to darken in the circle next to "Barck Obama."
There was no line at my polling place and turnout seemed about average. This is good, though....as I live in a lower-middle-class, mostly white, area in a red state. My precinct will go for McLame. You don't want a high turnout here.
November 4, 2008 8:52 AM | Reply | Permalink
I am waiting for my mom to get home so the entire family can go together. I don't care how long that line is I am ready to vote!
November 4, 2008 8:52 AM | Reply | Permalink
Let me tell you what today feels like for me.
You know that scene in the movie Return of the King, when the Witch King's army is laying siege to Gondor, but then, the Riders of Rohan appear on the hill above the Pelennor Fields? And then King Theoden gives that amazing speech to his riders, and they go streaming down that hillside headlong into the horde of orcs, and the orcs begin by getting into formation to defend their column, but soon realize that they aren't going to be able to stop this mass of riders coming straight toward them, so they start to panic and the music swells, and the voices rise, and the swords and spears are drawn, and the battle commences?
That's what today feels like to me.
November 4, 2008 8:52 AM | Reply | Permalink
We're not the orc's this time. right?
November 4, 2008 8:55 AM | Reply | Permalink
Dude, if you can't figure out who's who in the metaphor at this point, I don't know what to say.
November 4, 2008 9:12 AM | Reply | Permalink
The road goes ever on and on...
November 4, 2008 10:23 AM | Reply | Permalink
Ain't nuthin' gonna break my stride ain't nuthin' gonna hold me down no no
(whistling and humming as a certain giddiness [giddy?!? WTF!] overcomes me...)
November 4, 2008 8:56 AM | Reply | Permalink
Holy shit. I have so much work to do before I take off today and I can't concentrate!
November 4, 2008 9:04 AM | Reply | Permalink
I'm headed down to my polling place to hold signs for Obama, but I'm not voting until my granddaughter gets out of school at 3:30. I want her there right next to me so she can witness history in the making. Something she can tell HER granddaughter someday.
FIRED UP! READY TO GO!
November 4, 2008 9:14 AM | Reply | Permalink
off to work til 1, then volunteering at our polling place, handing out homemade brownies....yum........
November 4, 2008 9:28 AM | Reply | Permalink