Election Central Morning Roundup
Quinnipiac: Obama Ahead in Big Three
The final Quinnipiac polls of the largest three swing states give Barack Obama stable leads of various margins: Obama ahead by two points in Florida, 47%-45%, unchanged from a week ago; Obama ahead by seven points in Ohio, 50%-43, compared to a 51%-42% lead a week ago; and Obama up by ten points in Pennsylvania, 52%-42%, compared to a 53%-41% lead a week ago. The poll of Florida has a ±2.3% margin of error, and the polls of Ohio and Pennsylvania have a ±2.5% margin of error.
PPP Also Shows Obama Ahead In Big Three
The new state polls from Public Policy Polling also paint a cautiously optimistic picture for Obama in the Big Three: Obama ahead by two points in Florida, 50%-48%, compared to a 48%-47% Obama edge two weeks ago; Obama ahead two points in Ohio, 50%-48%, compared to a 51%-44% Obama lead a week and a half ago; and Obama up by eight points in Pennsylvania, 53%-45%, with no prior PPP survey for comparison. The margins of error are ±2.4% in Florida, ±2.8% in Ohio, and ±2.5%.
Barack Obama In Florida, North Carolina And Virginia; Michelle In Nevada And Colorado
Barack Obama has a morning rally in Jacksonville, Florida, a 5:30 p.m. ET rally in Charlotte, North Carolina, and will then finish out the campaign with a 9 p.m. ET rally in Manassas, Virginia. Michelle Obama will hold a 2:30 p.m. ET rally in Las Vegas, Nevada, and a 6 p.m. ET rally in Littleton, Colorado.
Biden In Missouri, Ohio -- And Pennsylvania
Joe Biden is holding a 10:30 a.m. ET rally in Lee's Summit, Missouri, a 3:45 p.m. ET rally in Zanesville, Ohio, a 7:30 p.m. ET rally in Copley, Ohio, and finally a 10 p.m. ET rally in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania.
McCain In Six States Today
John McCain has a very busy schedule for the final day of the campaign: An 8:55 a.m. ET rally in Tampa, Florida, an 11:45 a.m. rally in Blountville, Tennessee; a 1:50 p.m. ET rally in Moon Township, Pennsylvania; a 4 p.m. ET rally in Indianapolis; an 8 p.m. ET rally in Roswell, New Mexico; and a 10:45 p.m. ET rally in Henderson, Nevada. The inclusion of Tennessee seems rather curious -- this one is widely viewed as a safe state, and he could probably spend his time more usefully in other states.
Palin Doing Six Events In Five States
Sarah Palin also has a very big day ahead of her: A 9:15 a.m. ET rally in Lakewood, Ohio; a 1 p.m. ET rally in Jefferson City, Missouri; a 4 p.m. ET rally in Dubuque, Iowa; a 7:45 p.m. ET rally in Colorado Springs; an 11:30 p.m. ET rally in Reno, Nevada; and a 1:30 a.m. ET rally in Elko, Nevada.
Roughly 27 Million Votes Already Cast
The Associated Press reports that over 27 million ballots were already cast up through Saturday night, the most recent time for which the data is available. Polling data suggests that Barack Obama has carried the early vote handily this year, meaning that John McCain will need to win the votes cast on Election Day by a strong margin.
McCain: Tuesday We "Take America In A New Direction"
John McCain declared at a midnight rally in Miami, "There's just one day left until we take America in a new direction." The heckling opportunities on this one are just too obvious.















Why is McCain going to Tennessee?
November 3, 2008 9:06 AM | Reply | Permalink
Mint juleps. Why else does anyone go to Tennessee?
November 3, 2008 9:10 AM | Reply | Permalink
Mint juleps are Kentucky not Tennessee.
What is just is interesting is why is Palin going to Iowa. This state is over for McCain. A little more groundwork for 2012?
November 3, 2008 9:12 AM | Reply | Permalink
My bad ;-)
November 3, 2008 9:24 AM | Reply | Permalink
Too many Mint Juleps?
November 3, 2008 10:23 AM | Reply | Permalink
I have a question about the exit polling this year. How can they do accurate polling in states where many, many voters have already voted? They usually ask who the voter chose and why - but how can they be sure of good data if no one polled the early voters too?
I've been wondering about this for days. But haven't seen anything written about it.
TPM, any ideas?
November 3, 2008 9:38 AM | Reply | Permalink
For some states at least, they will be using formulas based on recent polls surveying those who have already voted. But for many others, these votes will be counted and available for the exit pollsters to incorporate.
November 3, 2008 9:45 AM | Reply | Permalink
Nate says this is coming up within the next 30 hours:
3. A primer on why you should absolutely, positively ignore exit polls.
November 3, 2008 11:16 AM | Reply | Permalink
It's certainly going to make things a little more complicated, but here's how it could work:
Poll 1: Standard voting place exit poll, with 3,000,000 election day votes
80% Obama
20% McCain
Poll 2: Poll all residents, find enough early voters to get good numbers, and perform a separate 'exit poll':
1,000,000 early votes
60% Obama
40% McCain
(Yes, the election day votes are going to skew from early votes, but unexpectedly, they're going to go Obama's way!!!)
Each poll has a margin of error, those two would be combined in a statistically rigorous way, but putting the numbers together for raw vote percentages yields:
0.8 x 3,000,000 + 0.6 x 1,000,000,000 = 3,000,000 Obama votes
0.2 x 3,000,000 + 0.4 x 1,000,000,000 = 1,000,000 McCain votes
Obama wins 75-25.
Any problems with sampling error, false responses, etc, would be accounted for in the margin and ought to trend in the same direction for both polls.
Of course, for some states there just aren't polls to indicate how early voting went, so I guess we'd have to wait until they actually count the votes to know for sure, but most of those are cases where the state is expected to be a blowout one way or the other anyway.
November 3, 2008 11:21 AM | Reply | Permalink
No real Kentuckian would ever ruin good bourbon with mint and sugar. They might, however, ruin bad bourbon with mint and sugar and sell it to a tourist.
November 3, 2008 11:32 AM | Reply | Permalink
Heh heh, tomorrow I will be sipping Woodford Reserve on the rocks.
November 3, 2008 11:59 AM | Reply | Permalink
Bonnarooooooo!
November 3, 2008 9:17 AM | Reply | Permalink
It's directed towards Virginia. Blountville is right on the border.
November 3, 2008 9:17 AM | Reply | Permalink
Blountville, TN (Tri-Cities Regional Airport Rally) is near the Va border in the Bristol area.
November 3, 2008 9:18 AM | Reply | Permalink
Thanks. Palin is in Iowa WHY? They want to keep the margin to 15 points?
November 3, 2008 9:19 AM | Reply | Permalink
Especially weird since there are no key down-ballot races there, either. Maybe he wants to visit Graceland?
November 3, 2008 9:19 AM | Reply | Permalink
Graceland is about 450 miles from Blountville. ;-)
Still, it is interesting that McCain is stopping in that deep red area... must be hoping to motivate the nascar voter base.
November 3, 2008 9:23 AM | Reply | Permalink
Pardon my geographic ignorance of the mid-South.
November 3, 2008 9:27 AM | Reply | Permalink
Actually, I believe it's more like 600 miles. Blountville is as close to Canada as it is to Memphis.
People do love to speak with confidence about the South, though.
November 3, 2008 10:46 AM | Reply | Permalink
So all that time in the Keystone State yielded little for McCain. McCain in Roswell on the last day? There's something just too delicious about that.
November 3, 2008 9:08 AM | Reply | Permalink
At least two of the polls showing tightening in PA (SUSA and Rassmussen) have McCain winning 16% and 20% of the African-American vote. QPac has him winning African-Americans 95-1.
November 3, 2008 9:10 AM | Reply | Permalink
There is no way McLame is going to get that much of the AA vote. Unless hell has recently frozen over.
November 3, 2008 9:17 AM | Reply | Permalink
Makes total sense. An alien invasion is his best hope of avoiding total humiliation tomorrow.
November 3, 2008 9:26 AM | Reply | Permalink
More likely that he tries one final negative scare tactic; linking Obama to alien invaders.
"My friends, here at Area 51, I uncovered disturbing information; the name Barack isn't Kenyan, it's not even from this planet. Now, Obama wants you to think that this is some kind of coincidence, but I think we need to know the full details of his relationship with these aliens. His silence on this issue leaves us only to assume that Obama wants to spread your wealth around; not around the country, not around the world, but around the galaxy! Joe the Plumber heard Obamas plan, and he said it sounded like aliens feasting on your children! Fight with me! Fight for what's right for Earth! We don't run away from alien invasions, we invade the aliens!"
November 3, 2008 9:51 AM | Reply | Permalink
Palin' around with aliens. Remember that Twilight Zone, "To Serve Man"? It's a cookbook, they screamed!!!!
November 3, 2008 10:09 AM | Reply | Permalink
Didn't Barack hint at this himself during the Al Smith dinner? We have much to fear from a potential alien presidency. My friends.
November 3, 2008 10:34 AM | Reply | Permalink
He pals around with John Kerry, too. So maybe they'll uncover a picture of Obama (wind)surfing with the alien. (Sorry, apparently I'm all about semi-obscure '80s music references this week.)
November 3, 2008 10:50 AM | Reply | Permalink
Ain't nothin' obscure about Joe S.! Satch is The Bomb!
November 3, 2008 10:57 AM | Reply | Permalink
Satriani's a great technoflash player, no question.
November 3, 2008 11:24 AM | Reply | Permalink
More likely that he tries one final negative scare tactic; linking Obama to alien invaders.
"My friends, here at Area 51, I uncovered disturbing information; the name Barack isn't Kenyan, it's not even from this planet. Now, Obama wants you to think that this is some kind of coincidence, but I think we need to know the full details of his relationship with these aliens. His silence on this issue leaves us only to assume that Obama wants to spread your wealth around; not around the country, not around the world, but around the galaxy! Joe the Plumber heard Obamas plan, and he said it sounded like aliens feasting on your children! Fight with me! Fight for what's right for Earth! We don't run away from alien invasions, we invade the aliens!"
November 3, 2008 9:52 AM | Reply | Permalink
I think McCain and Palin should have finished it off with an all out blitzkrieg on the Keystone state. Thirty or so stops each, hit every county in a frenzy of last minute vitriol from dawn till midnight. The Double Maverick I suppose where he goes, by his own admission, all berserker on us. Rather nonsensical, but it would have saved on gas.
November 3, 2008 9:47 AM | Reply | Permalink
I don't understand why he's campaigning in TN.
I'm so ready to VOTE!
November 3, 2008 9:08 AM | Reply | Permalink
No negativity from me today. I refuse to feel worried. I will not look this good news in the face and feel anything but confident.
Everyone from the newest volunteer to donors to the geniuses that are Plouffe and Axelrod has done their job.
But of course all that would mean nothing if we didn't have the best top of the ticket candidate in my lifetime.
One more day of work then Hail to the Chief.
November 3, 2008 9:08 AM | Reply | Permalink
Why I oughta.....
Thank you for what you just wrote.
November 3, 2008 9:24 AM | Reply | Permalink
Moose - Thank YOU for your direct efforts.
I'm an expat so I have only helped a little with donations not with getting out there on the ground.
I would have felt good if Kerry had won, but this will be something entirely different.
November 3, 2008 9:42 AM | Reply | Permalink
I, too, wished Kerry had won and both donated and volunteered my time to his campaign, but I was never excited about him -- I just wanted Bush out. With Obama, it's something entirely different. He is the first candidate of my adult lifetime about whom I have been excited, enthused, inspired, you name it. So in a perverse way, Kerry's defeat may have been a blessing in disguise, not that I'd wish the damage of the last four years on anyone.
If and when, knock on wood, Obama wins, he'll also be the first candidate in the 33 years I've been a voter to be elected president whom I backed from day one in the primaries. Maybe a once in a lifetime thing.
November 3, 2008 9:52 AM | Reply | Permalink
THIS
November 3, 2008 9:09 AM | Reply | Permalink
IS
November 3, 2008 9:12 AM | Reply | Permalink
CATASTROPHIC
November 3, 2008 9:15 AM | Reply | Permalink
SNOOZE
November 3, 2008 9:29 AM | Reply | Permalink
BUT
November 3, 2008 9:33 AM | Reply | Permalink
GAH!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
November 3, 2008 9:42 AM | Reply | Permalink
Just to change the subject and add some variety...
Les Gara, an Alaska legislator, has sent a request to the State Atty Gen requesting his office investigate whether or not McCain and his campaign may be guilty of witness tampering concerning the 10 state employees who refused to testify.
Seems the law in Alaska is quite explicit:
"No person may attempt to induce another into not showing up for a legislative subpoena"
Source:http://www.andrewhalcro.com/troopergate_witness_tampering_gara_demands_ag_investigate
November 3, 2008 9:11 AM | Reply | Permalink
And that's a violation of AK law beyond Dubya's power of pardon.
Oh, wait... there's this little matter of the AK governor. Feh.
November 3, 2008 11:13 AM | Reply | Permalink
I don't understand why he's campaigning in TN.
I'm so ready to VOTE!
November 3, 2008 9:12 AM | Reply | Permalink
Well, a good thing to listen to,,,, and commit to memory - should one be of an age to have little grey cells sufficient to the task - is the Sgt. Barry McGuire take off on his 'Eve of Destruction' over at Andrew Sullivan, under 'Song for Tuesday.
November 3, 2008 9:14 AM | Reply | Permalink
Well, a good thing to listen to,,,, and commit to memory - should one be of an age to have little grey cells sufficient to the task - is the Sgt. Barry McGuire take off on his 'Eve of Destruction' over at Andrew Sullivan, under 'Song for Tuesday'. http://andrewsullivan.theatlantic.com/the_daily_dish/ 3 Nov about 8:26am
November 3, 2008 9:16 AM | Reply | Permalink
24 hours and counting..
November 3, 2008 9:16 AM | Reply | Permalink
For any of you Nervous Nellies out there who can't quite believe this is really going to happen, consider this:
The UK on-line bookmakers Betfair got every single state right in 2004. All 50. They are currently offering McSlime at 11/1 up from 6/1 a few days ago. Obamas odds have shortened further, from 1/7 to 1/12. If the bookies thought there was any chance of having to payout $12 for every $1 bet on McSlime, they would not be offering those odds.
Most importantly of all, remember: pollsters get paid no matter how badly they call it. They are not penalized if they get it wrong. Bookies, on the other hand, have to pay out huge sums if they get it wrong, which is why they so rarely do. Money trumps ideology in book-making, every time.
So, fear not, my friends, also, you betcha. Wave these assholes goodbye...
November 3, 2008 9:17 AM | Reply | Permalink
Awesome. Thanks. This is helpful for those of us who are scared it could all really be just a dream. :)
November 3, 2008 9:24 AM | Reply | Permalink
Any link to that site ?
November 3, 2008 9:27 AM | Reply | Permalink
www.betfair.com
November 3, 2008 9:35 AM | Reply | Permalink
Thx Zemer. Great odds indeed.
November 3, 2008 9:43 AM | Reply | Permalink
Interesting. I'd never visited them (mostly just glance at Intrade now and then). They seem torn over Missouri, with just a very slight lean towards Dem. More interestingly, they seem to think FL, NC, and OH will go Dem. GA, IN and ND they lean to the GOP.
November 3, 2008 9:32 AM | Reply | Permalink
I can't believe this election is almost over. I've been waiting for this day for the longest.
November 3, 2008 9:18 AM | Reply | Permalink
Obama is trading at 91 on Intrade.
November 3, 2008 9:21 AM | Reply | Permalink
McCain is trading at 9.5.
November 3, 2008 9:22 AM | Reply | Permalink
Great News. I was just thinking when McCain will score in single digit at Intrade.
Why is it 88.5-12.2 here at TPMEC ?
November 3, 2008 9:32 AM | Reply | Permalink
GREAT NEWS FOR JOHN MCCAIN!!! As Krystol said, liberals should love him because he's now the anti-establishment underdog!!! MCPAIN '08!!!
November 3, 2008 9:46 AM | Reply | Permalink
It's not a site for day traders.
November 3, 2008 11:21 AM | Reply | Permalink
My friends, we've got them right where we want 'em!!!
November 3, 2008 9:56 AM | Reply | Permalink
That's what Edward J. Smith said about icebergs.
"All ahead full."
November 3, 2008 11:03 AM | Reply | Permalink
I am going to guess Mccain is in TN to try and save a few Congressional races?
And could the news stop shoving those outlier mason Dixon polls down our throats when ALL other polls show strong Obama leads?
Yikes!
And just so everyone knows....I managed to snag a ticket to the Obama celebration in Chicago's Grant Park. I will be thinking of all of you as I stand there with my Obama sign. I wish TENA could be right by my side!
November 3, 2008 9:25 AM | Reply | Permalink
Congrats Dave! I thoroughly enjoyed being in the stand behind Obama here in St. Louis in the 100,000 rally. Have fun!
November 3, 2008 9:32 AM | Reply | Permalink
You lucky duck. I'm jealous.
November 3, 2008 10:02 AM | Reply | Permalink
No "Hail to the Thief" this time around.
Not.This.Time.
November 3, 2008 9:29 AM | Reply | Permalink
WOW, for once McCain is right. WE ARE taking America in a new direction come Tuesday and I CAN'T WAIT.
November 3, 2008 9:31 AM | Reply | Permalink
God please, if there is a god, keep Obama safe from the Republican hatemongers. We don't ask that you take sides. Just keep everyone safe.
November 3, 2008 9:33 AM | Reply | Permalink
My message of the day is from a photo I've seen on the Internet. If I could post it here I would. Don't have the link either. But it shows a photo of Obama from his Democratic Convention speech looking especially determined and fierce. It says:
EVERYONE CHILL THE FUCK OUT,
I GOT THIS!
Whenever I get nervous, I look at it and it calms me down.
Also, I phone banked yesterday and will do the same today and tomorrow. Best way to burn off nervous energy.
November 3, 2008 9:34 AM | Reply | Permalink
There you go...
http://i367.photobucket.com/albums/oo113/amk123amk/obamachillthefuckout.jpg
November 3, 2008 9:38 AM | Reply | Permalink
Here's that link:
http://ta-nehisicoates.theatlantic.com/archives/2008/10/liberalism_bomaye.php
November 3, 2008 9:39 AM | Reply | Permalink
Thanks to both of you.
November 3, 2008 9:42 AM | Reply | Permalink
If you are like me and feel like a kid waiting on Christmas you could spend the long hours phone banking. Head on over to the Obama site and sign up. They will send you a list of folks to call.
November 3, 2008 9:35 AM | Reply | Permalink
If you are like me and feel like a kid waiting on Christmas you could spend the long hours phone banking. Head on over to the Obama site and sign up. They will send you a list of folks to call.
November 3, 2008 9:36 AM | Reply | Permalink
Last Morning Roundup before Election Day! It's hard to believe its almost upon us. I could barely sleep last night, and there's no way I'm getting much work done in the next 48 hours.
Even here in reliably blue CT the excitement is palpable. People with Obama bumper stickers are honking and waving to each other, I know of at least three different phone banking parties going on tonight in my town of 15,000 that usually goes 55-45 Republican.
Doing our best to make up for electing Lieberman!
November 3, 2008 9:37 AM | Reply | Permalink
I have a question about the exit polling this year. How can they do accurate polling in states where many, many voters have already voted? They usually ask who the voter chose and why - but how can they be sure of good data if no one polled the early voters too?
I've been wondering about this for days. But haven't seen anything written about it?
TPM, any ideas?
November 3, 2008 9:41 AM | Reply | Permalink
I've been wondering the same thing, particularly since a disproportionate number of the early voters seemed to be Democratic. That would leave a larger number of the Nov. 4 voters Republican than would actually be true of the voting population at large. But I assume they must have some way of compensating, perhaps assuming that something along the lines of 85% (or whatever) of the early vote was along party lines (so the Dems voted Dem and the Reps voted Rep) with the other 15% (or whatever) crossing party lines or voting 3rd party. Seems to me the only way they could do it and it seems like it might not be accurate.
November 3, 2008 9:47 AM | Reply | Permalink
I've taken statistics (too much of it) and I simply am bothered if they have to do a lot of fudge factoring... due to early voting. I hope when the reporting comes out that people take that into consideration.
November 3, 2008 9:51 AM | Reply | Permalink
user-pic
For some states at least, they will be using formulas based on recent polls surveying those who have already voted. But for many others, these votes will be counted and available for the exit pollsters to incorporate.
November 3, 2008 9:48 AM | Reply | Permalink
You answered regarding the totals and I'm really not worried about totals. As we'll have the votes for the result.
I'm concerned about he social info that they collect. As well as about voter's reasons for voting this or that candidate. And that data will be more accurate for states without early voting than with early voting. That's my concern here.
November 3, 2008 9:55 AM | Reply | Permalink
Nate at 538 says this is coming up within the next 30 hours:
3. A primer on why you should absolutely, positively ignore exit polls.
November 3, 2008 11:18 AM | Reply | Permalink
In 30 hours it'll all be over!
November 3, 2008 11:34 AM | Reply | Permalink
I've been wondering the same thing, particularly since a disproportionate number of the early voters seemed to be Democratic. That would leave a larger number of the Nov. 4 voters Republican than would actually be true of the voting population at large. But I assume they must have some way of compensating, perhaps assuming that something along the lines of 85% (or whatever) of the early vote was along party lines (so the Dems voted Dem and the Reps voted Rep) with the other 15% (or whatever) crossing party lines or voting 3rd party. Seems to me the only way they could do it and it seems like it might not be accurate.
November 3, 2008 9:53 AM | Reply | Permalink
I've been wondering the same thing, particularly since a disproportionate number of the early voters seemed to be Democratic. That would leave a larger number of the Nov. 4 voters Republican than would actually be true of the voting population at large. But I assume they must have some way of compensating, perhaps assuming that something along the lines of 85% (or whatever) of the early vote was along party lines (so the Dems voted Dem and the Reps voted Rep) with the other 15% (or whatever) crossing party lines or voting 3rd party. Seems to me the only way they could do it and it seems like it might not be accurate.
November 3, 2008 9:55 AM | Reply | Permalink
Sorry for the triple (eek) post. Sigh.
November 3, 2008 10:03 AM | Reply | Permalink
For a delightful excercise in schadenfreude as well as an explanation of why McSlime is trailing so badly, have a look at this:
http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/10/big-empty.html
...even McCombover's supporters are bored to tears by him, also. You betcha.
November 3, 2008 9:45 AM | Reply | Permalink
I notice that all of McCain's stops are "airport rallies" - ie brief tarmac dealies where they hope to get a soundbite on the local news, and likely with very small crowds. Not that that is a bad way to end the campaign, but the guy's gonna be exhausted.
Just caught a couple minutes of Palin in Ohio- ye gods she's a maniac.
November 3, 2008 9:47 AM | Reply | Permalink
It looks pretty certain that Obama will win. I can't wait to vote and get this over with!
I will be very dissapointed if the Dems don't get a filibuster-proof majority in the Senate. That seems, to me, to have been an extrememly important goal that the Dems completely ignored. I have rarely heard one Dem politician, in the last two years, talk about how important that is. I don't think a lot of voters realize that without that majority very little will actually get accomplished. The Republican motto will be "Obstruct, baby obstruct!"
November 3, 2008 9:55 AM | Reply | Permalink
actually, I don't consider the 60 Senate seats to be the be-all, end-all. There will be Republican defectors on various bills, and the Dems certainly won't be in lock-step on all issues.
Obama seems like he wants to create some sort of bi-partisan consensus, at least bringing a few Republicans into the fold.
November 3, 2008 10:02 AM | Reply | Permalink
I don't know.. even if the Dems got to 60 - and even if they get to it with Lieberman - do the Dems really have a filibuster proof 60 seats? You've got several Dems like Bill Nelson who barely vote 50% of the time for the Dems party line.. and if every best case scenario happened in the Senate races, you'd have guys like Lunsford in KY who is trying to out-rightwing McConnell.
I've always thought this magic 60 seats thing is a bit of a misnomer. If you were the Republicans, who practise party unity and/or use the party whip to effectively keep them in tow, maybe. But for the Dems, who seem to be more of a loose coalition? I have my doubts that they'd be able to get a filibuster proof 60 without some helps from a couple of Republicans.
November 3, 2008 10:02 AM | Reply | Permalink
Breaking a filibuster is an issue-by-issue by thing, and it can go both ways. For some issues, Collins and Snowe will likely break against their party and vote for closure.
November 3, 2008 10:13 AM | Reply | Permalink
electoral-vote.com has Obama at over 350, I'm optimistic. NC and Indiana would be gravy, but it would be nice. So would a landslide and burying the current Republican party. I'm in Pa., so I have to wait until tomorrow to vote.
This is gonna be the longest 24 hours. Let's win this thing!
November 3, 2008 9:56 AM | Reply | Permalink
Thanks Josh and all of you at and on TPM!
(Before all of you stop checking TPM because either 1) we won or 2) we lost, I just want to say thanks. Thanks for helping keep us somewhat saner these many, many months of the campaign.)
Our family spent yesterday in Dover,NH canvassing for get out the vote and it was another experience filling us with HOPE for the election. In some gritty trailer parks in a hard-times corner of New Hampshire there were the most enthusiastic voters!!
PS: A good resource site for tomorrow. I just stumbled upon: a joint venture of Kennedy School of Harvard and ABC
PPS: Yes we can! GOTV!
November 3, 2008 9:57 AM | Reply | Permalink
Opps, the link didn't show: The election monitor site is:
www.myfairelection.com
November 3, 2008 10:01 AM | Reply | Permalink
Some advice...do not watch any tv coverage tomorrow, or at least not until polls close. they will just be focusing on the horse race aspect. and, as they report exit polls, which will more than likely be incomplete, that will throw many into a crazy panic.
don't watch until polls have closed.
November 3, 2008 10:13 AM | Reply | Permalink
Don't watch TV AT ALL - if you are able, get out and volunteer with your local campaign office or make phone calls from home/work. It's not over until tomorrow night!
November 3, 2008 10:34 AM | Reply | Permalink
Is there anyone willing to say awake to see McCain finish his campaign with a 2 AM rally in AZ tonight? With only 3 1/2 hours of sleep planned for him last night it should be entertaining to see him after his day long city/state fest.
November 3, 2008 10:15 AM | Reply | Permalink
Is he really having a 2am rally? Is that his local time (mountain or Pacific, I don't remember?). I'll watch. I'll be up for work, at that crazy hour.
November 3, 2008 10:20 AM | Reply | Permalink
McCain in Moon Township AND Roswell? Is there suddenly an X-Files angle to this campaign?
November 3, 2008 10:22 AM | Reply | Permalink
The mind races with the possiblities. But I'll be nice.
November 3, 2008 10:41 AM | Reply | Permalink
I believe this warrants a Nelson (Simpsons) style HAH HAHHH.
CNN:
November 3, 2008 10:58 AM | Reply | Permalink
More fun:
November 3, 2008 12:06 PM | Reply | Permalink
If people don't want to come out to the ball park, nobody's gonna stop 'em. --Yogi Berra
November 3, 2008 12:43 PM | Reply | Permalink
TN stop is to get news coverage in Western NC where McCain has strongest support in the state.
November 3, 2008 11:01 AM | Reply | Permalink
I haven't been this excited or nervous since I was twelve years old when JFK ran. And I read all the stuff on the betting sites and everything else and I'm still as nervous as a long tailed cat in a room full of rockin' chairs. Tomorrow midnight or so can't come soon enough. This entire campaign season has been more stressful than any I can remember. And not by a small margin. Living in this time and being able to witness what is going to happen tomorrow is just so...I can't begin to describe it. As a Vietnam vet and having served along with African Americans in the military and private sector I couldn't be more proud of this country right now. I never thought I would live to see this. This is right out of the Tom Hanks movie with the box full of chocolates I've watched a bunch of times and can't remember the name right now.
November 3, 2008 11:19 AM | Reply | Permalink
I haven't been this excited or nervous since I was twelve years old when JFK ran. And I read all the stuff on the betting sites and everything else and I'm still as nervous as a long tailed cat in a room full of rockin' chairs. Tomorrow midnight or so can't come soon enough. This entire campaign season has been more stressful than any I can remember. And not by a small margin. Living in this time and being able to witness what is going to happen tomorrow is just so...I can't begin to describe it. As a Vietnam vet and having served along with African Americans in the military and private sector I couldn't be more proud of this country right now. I never thought I would live to see this. This is right out of the Tom Hanks movie with the box full of chocolates I've watched a bunch of times and can't remember the name right now.
November 3, 2008 11:21 AM | Reply | Permalink
I've already early voted for Obama. I've had the privelege three times already. Yes it was all legal (2004 for US Senate, 2008 Illinois primary were the other two). I think we're going to win by a large margin once the as yet to be discussed active military vote (they're donating to Obama 6 to 1) comes in. I'm also sure we'll get the want to back a winner demographic.
I know that sounds flippant, but you'll see.
November 3, 2008 11:39 AM | Reply | Permalink
Palin using Alaskan $$ on the campaign trail.
Babysitters??????
Link is here
http://www.andrewhalcro.com/the_100_000_per_year_babysitter
November 3, 2008 12:56 PM | Reply | Permalink
So when they say "early votes already cast for Obama" is that officially counted ballots or based on exit polling?
November 3, 2008 12:59 PM | Reply | Permalink
Here in Springfield, Mo...on the local news on the Fox channel they present as "news" McCain giving a speech attacking Obama on taxes and obviously lying yet they never correct him or say anything beyond where he is campaigning today.
Then they go to an interview with a handful of Harley Riders for McCain who praise McCain and degrade Obama (only about 12 people in the group) as if this is "news".
Then they go to a Political.com interview about Obama taking illegal donations and having to be "forced" to return them..."We'll be right back with the weather".
They've been doing this kind of crap every night.
Now to PBS radio who continually puts McCain supporters on air making statements like it's just a matter of known fact that Obama has no experience and McCain is so superior. Never once telling the truth about that claim which is "JUDGMENT TRUMPS EXPERIENCE". Always being wrong for 39 yrs. is not experience...it's a reputation.
We've so much to do to make sure Obama's majority translates to his being our next president.
Signs on corners should say "Protect the wealthy...Elect McCain" "Make $250,000/yr??? Tip your waitress who pays more in taxes" "Joe the Plunger wants $250,000 as down payment for a McCain house"
November 3, 2008 1:05 PM | Reply | Permalink