Mason Dixon polls are almost invariably a worst-case scenario for Obama, so I'm liking their Virginia numbers just fine.

Eric, may be you can educate us luddites how you arrived at the sage conclusion about Virginia undecideds ? May be God talks to you (and Sararacuda) in a series of exclusives ?

Mason-Dixon polls low ball Obama's numbers in all their polls so if Obama is ahead than he is doing well.

I can't get excited about M-D polls. They REALLY underestimate the black vote.

Yep the M-D polls are Obama's worst case scenarios.

In terms of Pennsylvania, the SurveyUSA poll shows that it is a high single digit race which is still good for Obama. Also the good news is that Obama is still above 51% in that poll.

At this point it is really about GOTV.

Does anyone know the % for early voting in Virginia?

Instead of bitching about the polls - I see that's covered - I think I'll just say this - I would expect them to screen Obama's calls - I can't believe that Palin's campaign staff act like the campaign is a slumber party (Oo oo - I think Tyler and Justin are on the phone - pretend you to go along with their joke. O, Tyler is sooo cute!").

I screen my husband's calls. IF it is someone he doesn't want to talk to, I cover for him. I screen his mail for junk and throw it away -

Sheesh - I like to think I'm as considerate as his damn secretary is! (she's not a "damn" secretary; I adore her. She is more fun - she's the only person who knows him almost like I do. We have a lot of laughs and she has the 3 most darling little girls I've ever seen in my life.)

One thing in the internals of that SUSA poll of Pennsylvania leaps out at me:

They're giving black support to Obama at 80%, to McCain at 16%.

Isn't that a little preposterous?

After contemplating this for some time, I'd wager less than 1% of undecideds will tough out the long lines on election day and make it to the ballot box. There's no scientific basis for my assumption, however.

We've had early voting in Florida since 10/20. The undecideds I've talked to are either very conflicted or they are disengaged or lukewarm to the process.

If they've put off voting until 11/4, it seems unlikely their level of commitment or interest will be high enough to wait in line. I'm not too concerned about them at this point.

As we get closer to election day, people are faced with having to commit themselves to one candidate or the other. They can't hid their intentions. So I expect the polls to begin narrowing to single digits between candidates and within the margin of error so it will be virtually impossible to declare who is ahead of who.

As Biden said. This race is closer than people imagine.

Persoanly, I see polls as giving a false sense of security.

Well, the sad part is the media using the repubs narrative. Once this is over, the media will have to rethink how they spin things.

I believe there is a big disconnect between the media and the reality.

I also hope that this will be the end of some pollsters...

M-D has about a 4 point Republican lean. So them saying VA is 2 is actually VA by as much as 8. Other than that these Repub hacks only have 2 days left.

Latest Poll from CNN: Senator Obama 53 - McWar 46...

There is not a single poll suggestive that the race is getting closer.

Obama/Biden 08

I went to the SUSA site, and the breathless "situation is volatile" (and therefore we will do minute-by-minute polling until Tuesday)strikes me as the exact kind of advertising that Blumenthal wrote about yesterday in a well-deserved rebuke of Zogby!

Barring some "outside event," what would make a situation "volatile" enough to be captured in a hour-by-hour polling exercise? Bizarre... (and I'm aware of SUSA's high ranking among polling outfits, which makes me think this sort of thing is beneath them)!

Also: NPR had a really interesting take on "undecideds" on Friday afternoon. Some percentage of them are not voting at all, and others have actually decided and do not want to "share" (smile). An interesting question might be are there actually cultural determinants of "undecided" responses? I canvassed in Mississippi (rural/exurban), and several times (not a lot, but enough for me to notice)people said (politely) "I don't tell people who I'm voting for," or (more tellingly)used the phrase "you don't tell who you're voting for," indicating some shared cultural knowledge.

In any case, I'm beginning to rethink my own position that the existence of "undecideds" 2 days before the election is a reason for the country to reconsider universal suffrage, since that response may cover a lot of other factors.

Agree with you mphillip, a lot of older people will tell you they know who they are supporting but simply won't say who it is. I think there are about half a dozen actual undecideds still out there in the country and that half of them are simply not going to vote.

Alas, the Columbus Dispatch Poll is basically worthless, as Kos explains today and Nate Silver more than verifies:

And in the 2008 primaries, the Dispatch poll had the distinction of turning in the worst performance out of any pollster -- by a LONG SHOT. And that includes Zogby's crappy internet poll.....(see Kos for the chart)...This chart tells you several things: 1) the polling was pretty good this Spring, 2) Zogby Interactive sucks, and 3) the Dispatch poll sucks so much more than than that crappy Zogby internet poll. So please, no matter how good the numbers may look for us, don't give a crappy poll any dignity. It doesn't deserve it.

the new PA poll from susa gave mccain 16 percent lead among aa..... tpm need read internal and adjust their finding accordingly

the new PA poll from susa gave mccain 16 percent lead among aa..... tpm need read internal and adjust their finding accordingly

When supposed "progressives" are told by conservatives like Graham and others that McCain is going to win by pulling out Pennsylvania etc. and they respond with "yeah, I could see that happening" I just want to bitch slap 'em so they will wake up to what is really being said (i.e., "I think we've found a way to steal enough counties to win the state"). For once I'd like to hear a response lijke "Only if you steal it and we are going to watch you carefully this time."

Bush/Cheney are still operating (as shown by their trying to get the DoJ to interfere in Ohio)to do anything to keep repubs in power. Dems underestimate the depths these people will go to to win the election. This race is not even close and that might be the only thing that prevents it from being stolen...unless you consider that being too obvious is why they brought in a combat brigade...to put down an outraged public if McCain is "announced" as the next president.

By now it should be more than obvious that the republican party is composed of dictatorial brownshirts whose members have been cultivated for years by low-lifes like Rush Limbaugh, Ann Coulter, Hannity, Beck,O'Reilley, Savage, Fox news, just to name a few...like the dobermanns in "Animal Farm"...and the only thing saving our asses now is that they are just a loudmouth Palin minority at present.

Obama's landslide public support is the only thing that will prevent the repubs from stealing this election...maybe. One thing is certain...Lindsay Graham is incapable of compromise and seldom knows what he's talking about but manages to get on TV nearly every week...why is that?

BTW...the Bradley effect also works like this: "I won't publicly admit to liking the blackman for president so I'll say I'm for McCain but will cast my private vote for Obama"

Most of us are so unconcerned with this issue that we never looked at Obama as a black man but as the best man to be president who happens to be black. It was never an issue but republicans keep trying to make it a foremost influence in this race.

It really only serves their normal purpose of avoiding issues by focusing on the person. Won't work this time because the issues are disastrous.

On Meet the Press today John Kerry reportedly "called Lieberman his 'friend' who he'd like to see return to the Democratic party." At least this is what Time's summary of Sunday shows reported.
http://thepage.time.com/sunday-show-summary-for-november-2-2008/

So folks -- what do you think of rehabilitating Joe?