Oh, Pennsylvania. What, pray tell, is your effing problem?

Another ‘Bad Sign’ for McCain: Obama Endorsed by Nancy Reagan’s Astrologer
http://satiricalpolitical.com/?p=4503

I watched a piece on local television about the outrageously high early voter turnout in Kansas. Why? Kansas is safely McCain (at least that is what the few polls show), but people are turning out in droves. Kansas officials are expecting the highest turnout in decades. You can't tell me McCain is that popular.

Oh, there are no other big statewide races in Kansas.

Something is happening out there that isn't showing up in the polls.

Pennsylvania's effing problem is having to live in Pennsylvania,,,,, anyone from Ohio knows that.

For tension relief these last few days and hours, enjoy and devour Dick Cavett's latest from the NYT: http://cavett.blogs.nytimes.com/2008/10/31/fright-night/?ref=opinion

(2) problems with this poll the first is it give obama 80% of aa and mccain 20% of aa votes and the last problem is these polls were taking either during or after the world series celebration in Philadelphia ... SO take all PA polls with a grain of salt....... btw obama did better with the white vote, however the aa votes brought it down

Obama stops advertising and pulls operatives out of North Dakota and Georgia and never starts to play in Arizona -- and discovers days before the election that he is at least competitive in these states. What gives? It varies from state to state, but by and large this suggests to me that campaigns are contested nationality these days notwithstanding the Electoral College. The one part of this that could damage Obama's chances in these is lack of a pulling operation. But at this point, the GOPS may do that for him!

I'd really like to see Obama return to Pennsylvania this weekend. The McCain campaign is pouring everything they've got in terms of money and other resources into the state, and the polls show the race tightening there. I read somewhere else that right now the Obama camp has no plans to return to Pennsylvania before Tuesday. I'd like to see TPM readers weigh in on this. I've sent an email to the Obama campaign urging them to swing through the state one more time.

I have to tell you all, yesterday I found a CD I haven't listened to in a while - Steve Earle's Jerusalem. A lot of Bush-era gnashing on this album, about the sorry state of the nation, all the major points covered.

I really liked this album when it came out. It let me flail along when I was feeling especially frustrated.

But here's the thing: While listening to it yesterday on the way to work, it sounded dated. Past tense.

Isn't that effing great???

Over 50 percent so anyone who was whining can keep that trap shut.

He is not going to lose PA. One of the latest poll as McWas getting 20% of the black vote...This is not going to happen!

mccain ppl yesterday said obama and mccain were tied in iowa well 2 new polls from research 2000 and susa has obama by 14 plus points hmmmm go figure

If Obama did lose Pennsylvania, what other states would he need to win? Kerry states plus Iowa,Virginia, Nevada and Colorado?

And Senator Obama is ip by one nationally in the latest Rasmusen.
51 to 46.

If you go 538, McWar has now 2.8% chances of winning
www.fivethirtyeithgt.com

If you go Intrade, Obama is at 84%.
www.intrade.com

I think I am going to stay away from the TV today and tomorrow. The Repubs spin make me sick!!!

Not tow worry, even if he does lose PA, which is unlikely. Why/ Ket's look at the master, Nate Silver's survey of PA:

Saturday, November 1, 2008
Pennsylvania Sanity Check

Suppose that Barack Obama were to concede Pennsylvania's electoral votes. Literally, concede them. Throw 'em back, like a Chase Utley home run at a Cubs' game. How often would he still win the election?

...89.0% of the time, according to our most recent run of simulations, along with another 2.4% of outcomes that ended in ties. This is because in the vast majority of our simulations, Obama either:

a) was winning at least 291 electoral votes, meaning that he could drop Pennsylvania's 21 and still be over 270, and/or

b) was winning at least 270 electoral votes, while already being projected to lose Pennsylvania in the first place.

(a) was much, much more common than (b), obviously.

Time to get the group back to Pennsylvania! Remember this state does not have early voting - no way to lock those votes in advance (I assume they allow vote by mail) - I like East Coast states with big EC amounts and that will report first- let McCain have Arizona - McCain knows this is a big number - if can cut the spread he's hoping for a spill over effect to other close states like Florida. Call the Airlines, the trains, the buses, the taxis, hitchhike take a bike - but get back there? Am I over reacting or what?

I was out of town from Sunday to Friday in Rio de Janeiro with virtually no access to internet or even to CNN international (lame as it is).

It was actually a good way to count down some of these days - the stories haven't changed. One of the 487 polls shows McCain slightly less behind and the MSM starts talking about the race narrowing.

Blah fucking blah.

If everyone follows the plan this election is over. Have Plouffe and Axelrod given any hint over the last 20 months that they have trouble carrying out a plan? Has Barack Obama shown any hint that he is prone to make a mega gaffe? Has McCain shown any capacity to connect with voters who didn't vote for W?

No.

Obama is the next president.

Hail to the chief.

Rasmussen internal nat. tracking poll -

Nearly a third of voters say they have already cast their ballot and Obama leads by nine among this group. Obama also has a similar lead among the small group who have not voted but still plan to vote early. The candidates are essentially even among those who plan to vote on Tuesday.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/daily_presidential_tracking_poll

Time to get the group back to Pennsylvania! Remember this state does not have early voting - no way to lock those votes in advance (I assume they allow vote by mail) - I like East Coast states with big EC amounts and that will report first- let McCain have Arizona - McCain knows this is a big number - if can cut the spread he's hoping for a spill over effect to other close states like Florida. Call the Airlines, the trains, the buses, the taxis, hitchhike take a bike - but get back there? Am I over reacting or what?

Don't panic, people. Zogby and Drudge are both doing Obama a HUGE favor. Those who might be tempted to skip voting and get complacent will see those reports and realize they really, REALLY do need to vote.

Drudge as part of the Obama GOTV program, how 'bout them apples.

McCain needs to keep the GOP vote from quitting on Tuesday. The lies they tell about polls merely energize the other base. Outstanding work, Mav!

Guys and Girls - If 19 polls show you 10% ahead and two show you 4% ahead who should you believe?

Answer - The ones that show you 4% ahead. Every single potential Obama voter in Pa, Va, Oh, etc, need to know that no election is won until the votes are cast and counted.

Its all about GOTV - and nothing gets the vote out like a close race. Of course if everyone does come out and vote then Obama wins by a truckload but everyone does have to get out and vote.