Palin: My Comments About The Country Of Africa Were "Taken Out Of Context"
Sarah Palin is defending herself from the allegation that she thought Africa was a single country, and not a continent: "If there are allegations based on questions or comments I made in debate prep about NAFTA -- about the continent versus the country when we talk about Africa there -- then those were taken out of context." Note: There is no such country that is simply called "Africa."

McCain To Do Post-Election Appearance With Leno
John McCain will do his first post-defeat TV appearance on Jay Leno, going a similar route as Bob Dole's 1996 appearances on comedy shows in order to give the public a positive and light-hearted image. McCain will stop by the show on Tuesday, in honor of Veteran's Day.

Bill Ayers Speaks: McCain And Palin Lost Points From Attacking Me
In a new essay for In These Times, Bill Ayers comments on how his past associations with Barack Obama became a spectacle in this election. "The good news was that every time McCain or Palin mentioned my name, they lost a point or two in the polls," Ayers writes. "The cartoon invented to hurt Obama was now poking holes in the rapidly sinking McCain-Palin ship."

GOP Rep. Reichert Narrowly Wins Re-Election
Rep. Dave Reichert (R-WA) has been projected the winner in his rematch against 2006 Democratic opponent Darcy Burner, who has now conceded the race. With 81% of votes counted, Reichert leads by a 52%-48% margin, and the remaining votes are not likely to change the situation significantly.

Goode's Opponent Declares Victory, But Recount Looms
Tom Perriello, the Democratic challenger against right-wing Rep. Virgil Goode (R-VA), has declared victory with current results showing him ahead by 745 votes out of over 316,000 total votes cast. Goode has not conceded, and a recount is likely to occur, which would delay an official verdict on the race for several weeks.

Democrats Pick Up GOPer Gilchrest's Seat In Maryland
Democrats have picked up a deep-red House seat in Maryland, with Democrat Frank Kratovil defeating Republican Andy Harris by a narrow margin. Harris won the Republican nomination in a primary challenge against the incumbent moderate GOP Rep. Wayne Gilchrest, who then turned around after his defeat and campaigned for Kratovil.

McCain Headed To Georgia For Chambliss
Sen. Saxby Chambliss (R-GA) will be getting some major help in his upcoming runoff against Dem challenger Jim Martin: John McCain, who carried Georgia 52%-47%, and will be coming to the state to campaign for Chambliss' re-election. The runoff could potentially have lower turnout than the November election, so it will become all about which party can better energize and bring out its base.

Chambliss Uses 9/11 Imagery In New Ad
Check out this ad from Sen. Saxby Chambliss (R-GA), as he heads into his December runoff against Democrat Jim Martin:

"When our country was under attack, we trusted Saxby Chambliss," the announcer says to images of 9/11. What's next -- will Chambliss redo his old ads from 2002 tying Dem incumbent Max Cleland to Osama bin Laden, and just Photoshop in Jim Martin?

Harry Reid ratchets up the public rhetoric on Joe Lieberman:

"Joe Lieberman has done something that I think was improper, wrong, and I'd like if we weren't on television, I'd use a stronger word of describing what he did," Reid told CNN's John King. "But Joe Lieberman votes with me a lot more than a lot of my senators. He didn't support us on military stuff and he didn't support us on Iraq stuff. You look at his record, it's pretty good."

As noted below, Reid's office has now publicly confirmed that he may ask the other Dem Senators to vote on Lieberman's fate at their full caucus meeting on November 18th. At this rate, Reid will be left with no choice other than to take real action.

Obama just wrapped up his first presser as President-elect, a historic moment. Here's video of the entire thing:

A couple of quick highlights. First, Obama sought to project a strong sense that he's already taking action on the economy, vowing to "act swiftly" to "confront this economic crisis head-on." The need to project a sense of action well before he takes power is a difficult balancing act, but a necessary one, given the imperative of calming the globe and thus making future action easier. And he did that.

Obama also sought to describe our economic problems as a two-tiered set of challenges: One requiring an immediate response; and the second demanding "long-term" policies to address such issues as the push for cleaner energy, health care, and middle-class tax relief.

Obama balanced gravity and a sense of appropriate seriousness with an occasional effort to lighten the mood with some easy banter, striking a tone that will probably turn out to be a hallmark of his presidency. He asked Chicago reporter Lynn Sweet why she had her arm in a cast. And he referred to himself as a "mutt" at one point with some self-deprecating humor that, given that he's just been elected president, risked sounding insincere, but somehow didn't.

The low point of the presser came when a reporter asked Obama to respond to the fact that Iranian president Mahmoud Ahmedinejad has written him an unusual letter congratulating him for his victory -- a frivolous waste of time given the big issues Obama is confronting.

Full text of Obama's opening statement after the jump.

Late Update: Video added above.

Read more »

Senator Harry Reid's office has just confirmed to me, on the record, that Reid is considering a new step: Asking all the Democratic Senators to vote on Lieberman's fate at their upcoming full caucus meeting if Reid and Lieberman are unable to agree on a way for Lieberman to relinquish his plum chairmanship of the Homeland Security committee.

"If Senator Reid and Lieberman don't reach an agreement, his future chairmanship may be put to a vote by the caucus as a whole on November 18th," Reid spokesperson Jim Manley told me, in response to my questions about the next step being mulled by Reid.

Manley's assertion represents the first public acknowledgment that this possibility is being seriously considered, and is a significant ratcheting up of pressure on Lieberman by Reid's office.

Manley said it was unclear as yet how precisely the mechanics of such a move would work, but left no doubt that it was likely to happen if Lieberman and Reid didn't resolve their impasse before the next caucus meeting.

The move would in effect put Lieberman's fate in the hands of his Dem colleagues. Top liberal bloggers -- among them John Aravosis, Josh Orton and Steve Benen -- are already mounting a pressure campaign, calling on their readers to contact Senators and get them to pledge to vote against Lieberman keeping his committee slot.

Others are urging readers to sign a petition calling on Reid to give Lieberman the push.

Late Update: Jane Hamsher also has a petition that readers can sign to press for Lieberman's ouster.

As I reported here yesterday, Senator Harry Reid is mulling an interesting option with regard to Joe Lieberman's fate: He's considering having the Dem caucus vote at their next meeting on whether Lieberman should be allowed to keep his plum committee chairmanship.

It's not precisely clear yet how that mechanism would work. What's clear is that it would put Lieberman's fate in the hands of his Dem Senate colleagues.

Now liberal bloggers are pre-emptively mounting a campaign to pressure those Senators to come out against Lieberman, should this vote happen.

MyDD's Josh Orton, a former Senate aide, is calling on readers to telephone their own and other Senators, particularly conservative ones and Lieberman allies, and ask them whether they still support Lieberman keeping his plum committee chairmanship.

And John Aravosis at AmericaBlog is pushing his readers to do the same. This is likely to snowball, and the advantage of this approach is that it provides people at the grassroots with many more targets to pressure for Lieberman's ouster.

Meanwhile, readers who think Lieberman should pay some kind of price for suggesting that Obama sold out the troops and hasn't always put the country first can always sign this petition urging Reid to give Lieberman a push.

The Politico has just posted a story on Joe Lieberman's battle to hang on to his plum committee slot, but Politico kind of buries the lede. The real story here is that Lieberman's aides are now openly threatening Senate leader Harry Reid by saying that Lieberman will stop caucusing with Dems if his chairmanship is revoked:

"Senator Lieberman's preference is to stay in the caucus, but he's going to keep all his options open," a Lieberman aide said. "McConnell has reached out to him and at this stage his position is he wants to remain in the caucus but losing the chairmanship is unacceptable."

That's pretty clear cut. Lieberman's aide is leaking the threat that he wants to remain in the caucus but that losing his committee slot is "unacceptable" -- meaning that he'll bolt the caucus if it happens.

With Obama planning his transition, meeting with his economic transition team and holding a press conference today, it's worth noting the extraordinary pressure he is under to be perceived as acting quickly, particularly with regard to the economic crisis -- before he becomes president.

Obama is reported to be devoting a great deal of time right now to picking a Treasury Secretary, and most news accounts say he's divided between Lawrence Summers, who held the post during the Clinton administration, and Timothy Geithner, president of the New York Federal Reserve Bank. But Dems in Congress are divided between the two picks, and liberal bloggers have mounted a campaign against Summers, suggesting that picking him could antagonize the Dems' liberal wing.

Meanwhile, some of Obama's own economic advisers are already beginning to pressure Congress, laying the groundwork for action once Obama takes office. Governor Jennifer Granholm, a member of his economic transition team, sent a letter to Congressional leaders urging them to finance public infrastructure projects, extend unemployment and food stamp benefits and pony up aid for the ailing auto industry.

Granholm is a strong supporter of a Congressional stimulus package, which Obama also supports.

Obama's performance this afternoon at his first press conference as President-Elect will obviously be key. To the degree that he can project a sense that he's swiftly taking action, it could have a calming effect that could make actual governing on the economy easier for him once he takes power. A lot to keep an eye on today.

The relentless focus on the economy has obscured the extent to which Obama's election also represents a big win for his foreign policy vision, which was resoundingly chosen over McCain's. A pair of articles in today's New York Times shed a fair amount of light on this.

There's this one...

Barack Obama may have been elected only three days ago, but his victory is already beginning to shift the political ground in Iraq and the region.

Iraqi Shiite politicians are indicating that they will move faster toward a new security agreement about American troops, and a Bush administration official said he believed that Iraqis could ratify the agreement as early as the middle of this month.

"Before, the Iraqis were thinking that if they sign the pact, there will be no respect for the schedule of troop withdrawal by Dec. 31, 2011," said Hadi al-Ameri, a powerful member of the Islamic Supreme Council of Iraq, a major Shiite party. "If Republicans were still there, there would be no respect for this timetable. This is a positive step to have the same theory about the timetable as Mr. Obama."

There's also this one, which reports that newly available info calls into question the "longstanding Georgian assertion that it was acting defensively against separatist and Russian aggression."

You'll recall that McCain attacked Obama as follows: "Obama said the invaded country should show restraint. He's been wrong on all of these."

If Obama does begin an orderly withdrawal from Iraq, and it does succeed in pressuring Iraq into resolving political differences, it's hard to overstate how massive a victory this would be for reality-based foreign policy sanity and how big a blow it would prove to GOP militarism, jingoism, and self-delusion.

A quick personal note on the election. My seven-year-old son, who's a far sharper political prognosticator than I, confidently predicted that Barack Obama would win the election way back in the early spring.

It took him about five seconds to figure it out. He was in the room playing with something or other while I was watching one of the Obama-Hillary debates, and I asked him who our next president would be. "Obama," he said, in the tone of someone patiently explaining that two plus two equals four, before returning to what he was doing.

I bring this up because it occurs to me that this huge historical triumph will be the first Presidential election he remembers. It's very possible that he will grow up in a period of sustained Democratic ascendancy. Unlike people whose formative years took place during the McCarthyism of the 1950s, or the tumult over Vietnam and Watergate in the 1960s and 1970s, or the Reagan revolution of the 1980s, or the impeachment circus in the 1990s, he could actually grow up perceiving our political system, and our leaders, as functional, effective, even sane.

His earliest memory of politics will be the sight of a black man getting elected president and running the country along with a cast of sober, responsible, even formidable Democratic leaders in Congress.

That's a humbling thought. It's a reminder how high the stakes were in the election and of just how big a victory it really was. And it's a reminder that all the work is just getting started, lest we take these gains for granted and they somehow slip away.

President-Elect Barack Obama's First Press Conference
Today, after meeting with their economic transition team, Barack Obama and Joe Biden will hold a presser 2:30 P.M. It will be a major media event: It's their first presser since winning the election, it will give us our first glimpse of how the new president and the media will interact, and it will send signals to Wall Street and the rest of us as to how Obama plans to address the financial crisis.

Congressional Dems Ponder Who Will Lead On Health Care
With Senator Ted Kennedy ailing, Congressional leaders are wondering who will take a lead role on health care in Congress when the new President sets about revamping the system. Hillary, perhaps? Meanwhile, Dems are pondering whether to replace the 91-year-old Senator Robert Byrd as chairman of the Appropriations Committee -- a powerful and essential slot at a time of deep economic anxiety.

Hillary Speaks With Obama, Hails Choice of Emanuel
Obama spoke with his Democratic primary foe after winning the election, and Hillary praised Obama for moving quickly to assemble a transition team. She singled out Rahm Emanuel, a creature of the Clinton world, hailing him as someone who is "determined and effective" and "understands both ends of Pennsylvania Avenue."

David Axelrod To The White House
Strategist David Axelrod, one of the visionaries behind the Obama victory, has signed on to be senior adviser to the White House. Look for him to do big-picture stuff, such as setting the tone and message of the new administration and establishing its larger themes.

Democratic National Committee: Our 50-State Strategy Paid Off
The DNC is out with a lengthy memo arguing that Howard Dean's 50-state strategy has enabled Dems to hit the jackpot in this election. "When Governor Dean became Chairman in February 2005, our Party had come through a dismal election cycle," it says, recalling that at the time there was "speculation about the possibility of a permanent Republican majority." Maybe someone should remind Obama's new chief of staff about this...

In the private meeting today between Harry Reid and Joe Lieberman, Reid bluntly informed Lieberman that Dem sentiment against him had risen to the point where it would be tough for him to keep his plum Homeland Security Committee chairmanship -- but Lieberman pushed back and said he thought he should be allowed to keep it, a source familiar with the meeting tells us.

But Reid stopped short of saying outright that Lieberman would be stripped of the slot if he didn't voluntarily relinquish it, the source says.

"Reid did not say that he was going to strip it," the source says. "There was a discussion, however, about how many in the [Dem] caucus are upset and don't want him to continue on the committee."

Reid confronted Lieberman with some of the comments he'd made about Obama during the presidential election. "Senator Lieberman defended his comments and said he thought that he should be able to continue as chairman," the source says.

No agreement was reached in the meeting, the source says, but Reid apparently is looking at a coming caucus vote as a mechanism to resolve the standoff.

"If they aren't able to work something out satisfactorily, there will be a vote in the caucus," the source said.

It doesn't appear that whatever agreement is reached will be linked to the question of whether Lieberman is allowed to remain in the Dem caucus in a general sense. "That's Lieberman's decision," the source said of the question of whether Lieberman would continue caucusing with Dems.

Earlier today, Nico Pitney of The Huffington Post reported that Reid had offered Lieberman a deal by which he'd relinquish his plum committee slot in exchange for a lesser role on another sub-committee. HuffPo added that Lieberman hadn't accepted the deal. The source we spoke with couldn't confirm the deal offer.

In his public comments on the meeting, Lieberman refused to disclose what had happened, saying only that he was mulling his options going forward.

Remember Guilford County, North Carolina, the place where Sarah Palin said she was happy to be in "Real America"?

Well, the North Carolina numbers are now all in, and guess what: Obama won this "Real American" county -- by a landslide.

Yep -- Guilford County voted 59%-41% for Obama.

In Palin's defense, maybe her "Real America" line didn't refer to this specific municipality, but was generally referring to North Carolina as a whole. Oh, wait...

(Via Andrew Sullivan.)

Democratic Senate candidate Jim Martin isn't wasting any time in jump-starting his campaign for the widely-expected December runoff against GOP incumbent Saxby Chambliss, whose potential defeat would be a huge get for Dems.

Martin is already on TV with a new ad that clearly reveals both his runoff strategy and the challenge he faces: He's looking to re-mobilize the black vote and other Obama supporters who came out in such huge numbers, and thus helped him keep Chambliss under the 50% threshold in a conservative Southern state.

The big question here is whether Martin can successfully remobilize Obama's voters -- note the ad's central emphasis on Obama -- by capitalizing on the Obama honeymoon. Martin could also benefit if Obama's huge win has left conservatives so demoralized that they don't bother coming out next time, thus changing the partisan makeup of the electorate in a state that went 52%-47% for McCain.

President-Elect Barack Obama is signaling quick movement on the economy, with his advisers moments ago rolling out a list of economic bigs who will serve on his Transition Economic Advisory Board.

Obama and Joe Biden will meet with the group tomorrow and hold a press conference afterwards, Camp Obama announces.

The group includes a bunch of expected names. There's Warren Buffett (who endorsed Obama) and Governor Jennifer Granholm, as well as some heavy-hitters from the Clinton universe, like Robert Rubin and Robert Reich.

Also serving: Harvard's Lawrence Summers and former Federal Reserve chair Paul Volcker.

Obama's press conference -- which will take place tomorrow at 2:30 P.M. ET -- is likely to be a media zoo, both because it will offer clues to Obama's first moves on the economy and because it's his first presser as President-Elect.

Read more »

Harry Reid and Joe Lieberman just wrapped up a private meeting about what Lieberman's fate will be in the wake of an election where he campaigned aggressively for McCain, said the attacks on Obama over William Ayers were legit and said Obama does not always "put the country first."

The upshot of the meeting? No decisions have been made as to whether to strip Lieberman of his plum committee slots or whether to take any other action.

"No decisions have been made," Reid said, in a statement sent to us by his office. "While I understand that Senator Lieberman has voted with Democrats a majority of the time, his comments and actions have raised serious concerns among many in our Caucus."

"I expect there to be additional discussions in the days to come," Reid continued, "and Senator Lieberman and I will speak to our Caucus in two weeks to discuss further steps."

Meanwhile, in a statement to reporters that just aired on MSNBC, Lieberman called for -- you guessed it -- an end to "partisanship" and for unified action on the economy, adding:

"Those are the standards I will use in considering the options that I have before me."

In other words, Lieberman is already portraying himself as being in the driver's seat right now over what happens to him.

Late Update: Jane Hamsher speculates on what happened in the meeting:

Reid told him he can stay in the caucus if he steps down from his committee chairmanship (a campaign we started shortly after the 2006 election, thanks to everyone who participated with pitchforks and torches). I imagine Reid told him they'll wait to do anything until the other Senate races are decided, but that's the way it's going to go down. Those are the rather well-source rumors circulating, anyway.

Joe now goes to see if he can get a better deal from the GOP, knowing his chances of winning in Connecticut as a Republican in 2012 are about "zero."

And Matt Stoller suggests that you sign this letter urging Reid to give Lieberman the push.

Late Late Update: MyDD's Josh Orton reads the tea leaves and says Reid is in fact getting ready to punish Lieberman.

Just out from Camp Obama:

"Michelle and I look forward to meeting with President Bush and the First Lady on Monday to begin the process of a smooth, effective transition. I thank him for reaching out in the spirit of bipartisanship that will be required to meet the many challenges we face as a nation."

Obama, of course, has just spent the last two years depicting Bush as the disaster he's been and promising to reverse everything he's done, so it should be an interesting meeting.

After a day or so of "agonizing" over whether to take the job, Rahm Emanuel has accepted the job of Obama's chief of staff, a Democratic aide confirms to us.

The move is an interesting one for a variety of reasons: Emanuel comes out of the Clinton world. He's a longtime D.C. insider joining the administration of a new outsider who is vowing to change Washington.

And he's a bit of a partisan warrior who can bang heads together behind the scenes to implement Obama's agenda while Obama sounds conciliatory, consensus-building tones in public.

It's Obama's first major public appointment.

Late Update: Given my rant below, I should have clarified that we're trying to get official comment from the Obama camp but none is forthcoming yet.

Late Late Update: A couple of other thoughts about the Rahm pick. It's a bit odd, because Rahm is a drama queen -- witness his very public "agonizing" about whether to take the gig -- something that's definitely at odds with what Obama expects from his top people. The choice of Rahm, though, also suggests that Obama is prepared to play rough with Congress when necessary.

Barack Obama has won North Carolina, according to projections from NBC News, the New York Times and the Associated Press, with Obama leading by 14,000 votes out of over 4.2 million cast.

Not everyone has called the race yet, but assuming Obama's apparent win here holds up it would be a major watershed event.

This would be the first time that North Carolina has voted Democratic since Jimmy Carter was the South's favorite son in 1976. Beyond that, we apparently now have the state that sent Jesse Helms to the Senate for 30 years, and re-elected him to his final term just 12 years ago, voting for an African-American candidate for president.

In a major Democratic pickup this year, Oregon Senate candidate Jeff Merkley is set to claim victory in the race against incumbent GOP Sen. Gordon Smith, Merkley's spokesperson has just told us.

"We will have a comment from Jeff at 9:30 this morning [Pacific Time], where he will claim victory," Merkley spokesman Matt Canter told Election Central.

The Oregonian, the Associated Press, NBC News and Fox News have all called the race for Merkley.

It's taken a while to get this race counted because of Oregon's mail-in vote system, but it's now very clear that almost all the outstanding ballots are from Dem strongholds that Merkley has been winning handily -- and he's already up on Smith by a few points in the count as it is.

This brings the Democrats to a gain of six Senate seats so far, with three GOP-held races still up in the air. The Dems now have 57 Senate seats, counting Joe Lieberman.

Late Update: Gordon Smith has conceded the election.

A senior adviser to Barack Obama tells us that despite earlier reports, the move to make former Obama campaign communications director Robert Gibbs the White House press secretary is not a done deal yet.

The campaign's spokespeople aren't publicly commenting right now. Yesterday multiple news outlets reported that Rahm Emanuel had accepted a job as White House chief of staff, but at least two outlets were forced to retract that.

Look, it's true that sometimes the major players keep flacks in the dark about what they plan to do as things play out behind-the-scenes. And for all I know, maybe Gibbs has accepted and in the next hour it'll suddenly become official.

But still, let me reiterate: When it comes to all this transition stuff, reader beware.

Looks like we'll be hearing from Barack Obama at a news conference within a few days, and his aides say he'll be asking the electorate for patience in solving the monumental problems he'll face as President. Here's how Obama pollster Joel Benenson puts it:

"I don't think they view him as a miracle worker who in two months is going to solve an economic crisis," Mr. Benenson said. "It is a matter of being straightforward with people about what we are going to achieve and how fast it's going to take."

Mr. Obama will hit that theme at a news conference he is expected to hold over the coming days, and in most of his public appearances from here on out, aides said.

Related question: How ambitious will Obama's domestic initiatives be in his first term? Both Ezra Klein and Kevin Drum have argued persuasively that Obama's instincts towards caution and compromise make a transformative presidency somewhat less likely.

Obama will be navigating competing forces. Obama advisers are reportedly resolved to avoid the over-reaching that plagued the first years of the Bill Clinton presidency. The need to preserve political capital for wrenching foreign-policy challenges could also weigh against ambitious domestic initiatives.

That said, Obama is also reportedly preoccupied with the tremendous expectations his candidacy has unleashed. Obama and Dems have an extraordinary opportunity: If one-party rule is successful in delivering on bold progressive initiatives that dramatically improve people's lives, it could cement an enduring Democratic majority. Obama is hardly lacking in self-confidence, so perhaps he'll think big.

Readers: You'll be reading lots and lots of unconfirmed reports about whom Obama supposedly is appointing to this or that position. Some advice: Take these reports with an ocean's worth of salt.

Fox News, MSNBC, and Time magazine all reported that Rahm Emanuel had accepted the job as White House chief of staff. MSNBC and Time have now both retracted these reports.

Which raises a question: What is so hard about calling Emanuel's office to confirm this kind of thing before running with it? That's what we did yesterday, and Emanuel's spokesperson kindly told us that, no, he hadn't taken the gig. So we reported that.

This is one of those cases where the competition between media outlets paradoxically produces worse journalism. It's a major pain in the butt for folks like me who want to keep their readers accurately informed.

It's true that sometimes the major players keep their flacks in the dark about accepting this or that gig while they work inside angles. Still, can't we all stick to reporting what we know to be true? It's important, because the reams of mis-information just make it harder for Obama to manage this transition. And getting this transition right is kind of a big deal.

Okay. End of rant.

From Politico...

Robert Gibbs, a top aide to Sen. Barack Obama (D-Ill.) on his campaign and in his Senate office, will named the White House press secretary, a top Democratic official said.

Gibbs was usually the senior official on Air Obama, the campaign plane. As communications director of Obama's Senate office, Gibbs was a key strategist on Obama's rapid move to the national stage.

The announcement, to be made shortly, is likely to be viewed favorably by reports because Gibbs has unquestioned authority, access and institutional memory.

Gibbs has shown himself to be a brawler-with-a-smile on Obama's behalf, and he'll need one.

Late Update: A senior adviser to Obama says the Gibbs White House gig isn't a done deal yet.

Rahm Playing Hamlet On Chief Of Staff Offer
Rahm Emanuel is expressing some serious reluctance about whether he'll accept the position of White House chief of staff: "I do know something about the White House and I have children now. I have a family." The tradeoff for Emanuel is that if he leaves the House of Representatives, he would be effectively giving up on his long-term goal of becoming Speaker.

Obama To Get First Intel Briefings
Barack Obama will receive his first national intelligence briefings today, in his new role as the president-elect. A typical briefing lasts from 45 minutes to an hour, but Obama's first will necessarily be longer due to the special requirements of a White House transition.

Scheunemann: I Wasn't Fired
Randy Scheunemann, who had been John McCain's top foreign policy adviser and surrogate during the campaign, is denying a report that he was secretly fired from the campaign in the final week for leaking damaging stories to the media about Steve Schmidt, Nicole Wallace and other campaign officials. "He was positioning himself with Palin at the expense of John McCain's campaign message," a campaign source had told CNN.

Local Paper: Obama The Likely Winner Of North Carolina
The Raleigh News & Observer is cautiously estimating that Barack Obama is the winner of North Carolina's 15 electoral votes, as Obama leads by almost 14,000 votes with about 40,000 provisional ballots left to be counted. If Obama's lead holds up, this will make him the first Democrat to carry the state since Jimmy Carter was the South's favorite son in 1976 -- and the election of a black presidential candidate would be nothing short of a watershed in a state that sent Jesse Helms to the Senate for 30 years.

Georgia Runoff Question Could Be Settled Today
One thing to look out for today is that we may finally get a verdict on whether the Georgia Senate race is headed for a runoff. With 96% reporting, GOP Sen. Saxby Chambliss is tantalizingly short of the 50%-plus-one that would re-elect him outright: Chambliss 49.9%, Democrat Jim Martin 46.7%, and the remainder with the Libertarian candidate.

Waxman Challenging Dingell For Energy Chairmanship
Rep. Henry Waxman (D-CA), who currently serves as chairman of the House Oversight and Government Reform Committee, has announced that he will challenge Rep. John Dingell (D-MI), a friend of the auto industry, for the chairmanship of the House Energy and Commerce Committee. Expect a lot of environmental activists and other prominent liberals to back Waxman.

Merkley Liking The Vote Count, But Not Yet Declaring Victory In Oregon
Senate candidate Jeff Merkley (D-OR), who has been projected to win the race against incumbent GOP Sen. Gordon Smith, expressed optimism when informed of his apparent victory by the Oregonian, but has not yet formally declared victory. Smith has not yet conceded, either, but we'll probably see formal declarations over the next day or two as more votes are counted from Portland and Eugene.

The vote count is still going on in Oregon, where the state is processing ballots under the state's mail-in vote system, but it now looks like Republican Sen. Gordon Smith has lost re-election to Democratic challenger Jeff Merkley.

The Oregonian, the state's biggest newspaper and home to some of the top experts in how to interpret votes as they're counted under the state's unique voting method, finds that Merkley and Smith are currently running neck and neck in the count. However, the vast majority of the remaining votes are in the Democratic strongholds of Portland and Eugene -- and on that basis, they have projected that Merkley will be the winner once all the votes are in.

Along with the other five seats that they've already picked up, this now brings the Democrats to 57 Senate seats, counting Joe Lieberman as a member of the caucus, with three more races up in the air in Minnesota, Alaska and Georgia.

As we previously noted, polling of voters who had already mailed in their ballots was consistently showing Merkley with a big lead over Smith, which the incumbent would be hard-pressed to make up. And apparently he was not able to overcome that gap.

Because of the campaign's relentless focus on the economy, another aspect of yesterday's win has gotten far too little attention: It represented a crushing victory for globalism and true foreign policy "realism" over GOP militarism, jingoism, and delusions about American power.

Consider this: Over the summer, a candidate with no military background went to Berlin and pledged a new era of American cooperation with the rest of the world, and in effect apologized to the world for America's unilateral belligerence.

That same candidate then returned to America and decisively defeated an extraordinarily militaristic and jingoistic campaign, one built entirely on a war hero's bio and on the insistence that American military dominance abroad is imperative for our safety.

Read more »

So here's the latest on the Senate map: We already know the Dems have picked up a minimum of five seats, but there are still four races that could go either way, with one of them leaning in the Democratic direction.

Here are the four outstanding races:

• In Alaska, GOP incumbent Senator and convicted felon Ted Stevens may have confounded the polls that showed him losing by a landslide -- he's now narrowly ahead 99% of the vote counted, and he is now saying it's almost impossible for his Dem opponent to win.

Forget about the Bradley Effect -- we're dealing here with the Stevens Effect: An unwillingness of poll respondents to admit to a pollster that they're going to vote for the convicted felon. This one seems to be tilting towards the GOP.

• In Georgia, GOP Sen. Saxby Chambliss appears headed to a December runoff against Democrat Jim Martin. Chambliss came out ahead of Martin, but seems to be so tantalizingly short of his true goalpost of 50% plus one: With 96% reporting, Chambliss has 49.9%, Martin 46.7%, and the Libertarian candidate has 3.4%.

Either Chambliss has reached the threshold to avoid a runoff, in which case he's re-elected outright, or he goes into a runoff where he would have to be rated as the initial favorite.

• In the Minnesota Senate race, where GOP incumbent Norm Coleman has a lead of just a few hundred votes against Al Franken, this one is going to a recount. That process itself could take several weeks, so we may not get a true verdict on this race until some time in December.

This one is a real tossup, and there is a precedent for Senate recounts changing the initial outcome in a close race -- that exact thing happened in a key Senate race in 2000, in Washington State.

• In the current vote count in Oregon, where all balloting is done by mail, incumbent GOP Sen. Gordon Smith has a very narrow lead over Democratic challenger Jeff Merkley. However, Oregonian columnist Jeff Mapes points out that many of the outstanding votes are from the Portland and Eugene areas, which are expected to heavily favor Merkley.

It might take another few days to get this thing counted, but the conventional wisdom in the Oregon press seems to be that Merkley will eventually pull ahead. Of the four races listed here, this one presents the most optimistic outlook for the Democrats.

In the highly unlikely scenario that the Democrats were to sweep all four of these races, they would then reach that magic number of 60 Senate seats, counting Joe Lieberman. But don't expect that to happen.

Late Update: Oregon's top newspaper has projected Merkley the winner over Smith. So that's one more Democratic pick-up.

Fox and MSNBC are reporting that Rahm Emanuel has accepted a job as Obama's White House chief of staff.

But an Emanuel spokesperson we just checked in with says that's not the case. No decision has been made, the spokesperson says.

It seems clear, however, that Emanuel is seriously considering the job. And Emanuel, an aggressive partisan warrior, is a choice that is likely to cheer people who don't want Obama to strike an overly conciliatory stance towards what's left of the Republican Party in Washington.

Meanwhile, Obama today announced his transition team, which will be overseen by John Podesta, a longtime D.C. insider who was chief of staff to Bill Clinton, Valerie Jarrett, a Chicago lawyer and long-time political adviser to Obama, and Obamaland insider Pete rouse, his Senate chief of staff.

Also assisting in the transition: William Daley, Governor Janet Napolitano, and Obama foreign policy adviser Susan Rice.

A list of Obama's day-to-day transition staff after the jump.

Late Update: John Harris and Jim VandeHei of Politico say that Obama's consideration of Rahm suggests that he's ready to press the Dems' partisan advantage in D.C.

Late Late Update: A number of you are arguing below that Rahm, far from likely to be confrontational towards the GOP, is more of a safe D.C. insider type choice. Separately, MSNBC is now backing off its report that he's joined the Obama administration.

Still Later Update: the Associated Press says the Rahm deal isn't done yet. Also, it's worth noting, as Steve Benen points out, that the chief of staff job could easily be less about ideology and more about execution, so it might be a mistake to conclude too much from the Rahm pick.

In other developments:

* John Kerry is denying reports that he's angling for the Secretary of State gig.

* Robert F. Kennedy Jr. is reportedly being considered for the head of Environmental Protection Agency, and he told HuffPo that he would take the job if it were offered.

Read more »

So looking back on our polling obsession about this race, which pollsters actually did the best job of calling this race, comparing the final polls to the actual results?

Taking a look at the national polls, who was correct in predicting Barack Obama at around 52%, and who got the right margin of a six-point popular vote win over John McCain?

Take a look at these final polls:

Rasmussen: Obama 52%, McCain 46%

GWU: Obama 49%, McCain 44%

Research 2000: Obama 51% McCain 46%

Zogby: Obama 54%, McCain 43%

IBD/TIPP: Obama 48%, McCain 42%

ABC/WaPo: Obama 53%, McCain 44%

CBS: Obama 51%, McCain 42%

Fox News: Obama 50%, McCain 43%

Ipsos/McClatchy: Obama 50%, McCain 42%.

Hotline/Diageo: Obama 50%, McCain 45%

Gallup: Obama 53%, McCain 42%

Most of these polls were on target with Obama winning by five to seven points, and quite a few of them had him in the neighborhood of 52% support. The first prize goes to Rasmussen for nailing the 52%-46% figure exactly. Research 2000 is close behind with their 51%-46% figure. Gallup was way off in giving Obama an 11-point win, but they did have Obama's support at just over the true result of 52%. And Zogby also gave Obama an 11-point lead, at a 54% level of support.

Also, the final Pew poll allocated its undecideds based on demographics and answers to key issue questions. Their prediction: Obama 52%, McCain 46%.

During the campaign the frenzied crowds at Sarah Palin rallies did seem indicative of something frightening in the air, and it turns out that there was a reason to conclude this, Newsweek reports:

The Obama campaign was provided with reports from the Secret Service showing a sharp and disturbing increase in threats to Obama in September and early October, at the same time that many crowds at Palin rallies became more frenzied. Michelle Obama was shaken by the vituperative crowds and the hot rhetoric from the GOP candidates. "Why would they try to make people hate us?" Michelle asked a top campaign aide.

Newsweek also reports that Palin launched an attack on William Ayers before the campaign had finalized their plans. And it turns out Palin's expenditures on clothing were far greater than previously known, infuriating McCain aides.

Relatedly, it's worth noting that the American people really did show great judgment when it came to Palin. Recall that when she first spoke at the GOP convention, at a point when she was barely known, it did look as if she was going to be a compelling asset for McCain: Good looking, forceful, independent-seeming, energetic, etc., etc.

But little by little, the dimensions of the Palin fraud were revealed by the media, and more important, the public caught on. It wasn't just that her unfavorable ratings rose. The key was that the American people correctly concluded that the choice of Palin should raise grave doubts about McCain's judgment.

The media revealed the truth about Palin, and the voters got her right. It's just one other thing about this amazing election that restores one's faith in our political process.

With 97% of all precincts now reporting nationwide, here are the statistics on President-Elect Barack Obama's victory:

• Obama has just over 63 million votes, with John McCain at a little under 56 million. Obama's margin of victory, at over seven-million votes, could provide him with a very strong mandate to govern.

• In terms of percentages, Obama won the popular vote by six points, 52%-46% -- exactly where many of the final polls were showing the race going. Hopefully we will never have to hear about the Bradley Effect ever again.

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Here's a rapidly emerging media meme to keep an eye out for. From Dan Balz's Washington Post piece on the challenges Obama faces as President:

This adviser said Obama knows that he must move strategically to balance his pledges to govern inclusively while promoting a progressive agenda. "It's up to him to educate people on a strategy to move forward." Part of that strategy, he added, will be persuading people to be patient about the pace of change.

Obama advisers take seriously the senator's rhetoric about governing in a bipartisan fashion. They are ready for potential conflict with some Democratic constituencies or with some liberal Democrats in Congress, whose pent-up demand for action may clash with Obama's priorities, and are prepared to say no.

Are Obama advisers already setting up the straw man of left-wing groups demanding too much change? I have no idea. It seems doubtful that this is a real reflection of internal thinking. Presuming for the moment that some Obama adviser somewhere did say this, it could mean that Obama aides are, understandably, trying to depress expectations for speedy changes, or that they are saying this kind of stuff to give themselves cover to enact their agenda.

The more important point is that this is a story-line that some in the media will be eager to tell: Obama is under pressure from left-wing interest groups to deliver on a progressive agenda that is out of step with the American people -- pressure that is testing Obama's willingness to "stand up" to MoveOn and other radicals.

Will there be real tensions within the Dem coalition over the direction of Obama's presidency? Of course -- but some will be very eager to inflate those tensions by exaggerating the differences between the goals of "the left" and the mandate that mainstream America just handed to Obama.

As Paul Krugman aptly puts it, Obama called for a progressive agenda that includes "spreading the wealth," and McCain called him a socialist and a "re-distributor." And the American people made their choice -- resoundingly. There will be tremendous pressure on Obama to forget this.

Late Update: Matthew Yglesias makes the key point about what we should term the "progressive center."

Here's an open thread for all of you to tell us about your experiences yesterday as Senator Barack Obama was elected first African American president of the United States.

We'll be talking about last night for decades. Where were you? How did it feel?

Speak.

So how did Dems fare in the House races? Dems have made a net gain of 19 seats so far, with a few races still too close to call.

The big Democratic gains were largely fueled by Barack Obama's successes in expanding the Democratic coalition across the country. These shifts were driven by increased minority turnout, as well as growing Dem margins among groups like Hispanics, blue-collar and college-educated whites, and suburban voters inclined to vote Republican in local races but who turned Dem because of the economy.

For example, Democratic gains among Hispanics may have been decisive in House pickups in Arizona, Colorado, New Mexico and Nevada, and economic jitters did a lot to unseat GOP incumbents or pick up open seats in Alabama, Florida and Pennsylvania, among others.

Our rundown on the state of play in the House races is after the jump.

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Could Al Franken still win in Minnesota, after all?

The Associated Press now retracted their projection that Sen. Norm Coleman (R-MN) defeated Al Franken, with the current vote tallies giving Coleman a lead of only 572 votes as the race goes to an automatic recount.

This line from the AP's report tells us what we're in for on this race: "Minnesota Secretary of State Mark Ritchie said the recount won't begin until mid-November at the earliest and will probably stretch into December. It will involve local election officials from around the state."

The show isn't over for Al Franken in Minnesota -- at least, not yet.

We now live in a new America. How to even begin to make sense of what happened yesterday?

Here's one way to look at it: Obama's victory represents a potential death knell -- but only a potential one -- for the 1960s cultural politics that defined and dominated our political landscape for the last four decades of the 20th Century.

There's a tidy symmetry in the fact that Obama defeated, in succession, both the Clinton machine and the Rove-Atwater brand of politics that Republicans have honed for so long.

In so doing, Obama defeated not one, but both of the leading practitioners of that 1960s-rooted cultural politics. More to the point, he did this by quite literally running against politics as both those groups practiced it.

Some commentators argued that McCain wasn't a GOP candidate in the Rove-Atwater mode. In reality, however, McCain and Sarah Palin were perfect vehicles for Rove-Atwater politics. As Josh argued yesterday, Palin is the most aggressive purveyor of the culture-war politics of resentment that Rick Perlstein superbly described in ""Nixonland" since, well, Nixon.

Meanwhile, in McCain, the Rove acolytes running McCain's campaign had a real live Vietnam vet, rather than a play-acting warrior-candidate. They tried to maximize this with non-stop references to his service and even efforts to cast Obama as insufficiently respectful of the military.

But these attacks, and Obama's lack of service, didn't do him any damage. He hadn't taken a high-profile side on the Vietnam War and other hot-button issues in the 1960s -- being a child at the time -- and thus simply could not credibly be associated with the 1960s cultural left. Obama's lack of roots in the 1960s battles also ensured that the consistent respect he offered for McCain's war heroism rang as sincere and true -- enabling him to rise above the GOP's attacks.

The key, though, is that the realities of Obama's political persona coincided powerfully with the economic meltdown to give Obama's overarching argument about our politics a huge lift.

Read more »

Al Franken has released this statement on the upcoming Minnesota recount:

The Secretary of State's office reports that all but nine of Minnesota's 4,130 precincts have reported in. And this race is too close to call, with a margin of just about 1100 votes out of 2.9 million cast. That's four one-hundredths of one percent of the vote. And we expect that when those final nine precincts are counted this morning, that 1100-vote margin will shrink into the hundreds.

Under Minnesota state law, we will now enter into an automatic statewide canvass and recount. It will be the first one since 1962, when I was 11 years old. I remember that year very clearly for two reasons. The recount between Elmer L. Anderson and Karl Rolvaag. And the Gophers were in the Rose Bowl that year.

And we have twice as many ballots to count this time.

Let me be clear: Our goal is to ensure that every vote is properly counted.

The process, dictated by our laws, will be orderly, fair, and will take place within a matter of days. We won't know for a little while who won this race, but at the end of the day, we will know that the voice of the electorate was clearly heard.

There is reason to believe that the recount could change the vote tallies significantly.

Our office and the Obama campaign have received reports of irregularities at various precincts around the state. For instance, some polling places in Minneapolis ran out of registration materials. Our team has been working on those issues for several hours already, and they will continue to do so this morning as the recount process begins.

Let me be clear: This race is too close to call, and we do not yet know who won. We are lucky enough to live in a state with built-in protections to ensure that in close elections like these, the will of the people is accurately reflected in the outcome.

This has been a long campaign, and it's going to be a little longer before we have a winner. Senator Coleman, Senator Barkley, and I have done a lot of talking. Minnesotans have waited a long time to have THEIR say. And thanks to our state's laws, we will eventually understand precisely what they have said.

We may have a recount on our hands in the Minnesota Senate race, though incumbent GOPer Norm Coleman is heading into it with the advantage and has already declared victory.

Coleman leads Al Franken by about 800 votes in the current tally, with all but one precinct reporting. Franken is entitled to an automatic recount under state law, which would be managed by the Democratic secretary of state, and Franken has now said the race is "too close to call" and "we do not yet know who won."

So we may be in for quite a bit of litigation and ballot-counting controversies before this is over.

Another House GOPer has been caught up in the national Democratic wave. CNN and NBC have projected that Rep. Thelma Drake (R-VA) has been defeated by Democratic challenger Glenn Nye, a businessman and former diplomat.

With 100% of precincts reporting, Nye has 52% of the vote to Drake's 48%. Drake was previously targeted by the Dems in 2006, but narrowly held on against her opponent that year. This time, she wasn't so lucky.

Meanwhile, Rep. Virgil Goode (R-VA), best known for denouncing the election of Rep. Keith Ellison (D-MN) as the first Muslim member of Congress, may have been defeated. His Dem opponent has even predicted victory in a very tight race, though news organizations have yet to call the race.

Big news here: CBS and NBC have now projected that Barack Obama has won the former reliably-red state of Indiana, which last voted Democratic in the Lyndon Johnson landslide of 1964.

With 99% of precincts reporting, Obama has edged out McCain 50%-49%, with a raw vote margin of about 23,000 votes.

This is a state that voted 60%-39% for George W. Bush in 2004. To say this is a watershed is a profound understatement.

It looks like we'll still have Michele Bachmann to kick around. CNN and NBC are now projecting that the controversial GOP Congresswoman from Minnesota, who put her once-certain re-election in danger after she went on Hardball and called for a media investigation of Barack Obama and Congressional Dems for having anti-American views, has been re-elected.

With 81% reporting, Bachmann leads Democratic candidate El Tinklenberg by a margin of 47%-43%.

Look on the bright side: It sure will be entertaining to watch her squirm at the agenda of President Obama and the Democratic Congress.

President-Elect Barack Obama (did I write that?) just spoke in Chicago's Grant Park, and cast his election as the momentous historical event that it is.

But rather than refer directly to his historic triumph over racial barriers, he instead cast his election as proof of the power of American self-renewal and the enduring achievement of the country's Founding Fathers. From the prepared remarks:

If there is anyone out there who still doubts that America is a place where all things are possible; who still wonders if the dream of our founders is alive in our time; who still questions the power of our democracy, tonight is your answer.

He immediately set about preparing the electorate for the hard road ahead:

The road ahead will be long. Our climb will be steep. We may not get there in one year or even one term, but America -- I have never been more hopeful than I am tonight that we will get there. I promise you -- we as a people will get there.

There will be setbacks and false starts. There are many who won't agree with every decision or policy I make as President, and we know that government can't solve every problem. But I will always be honest with you about the challenges we face.

Obama is reported to be worried about the powerful emotions and soaring expectations he's unleashed from the electorate. Those expectations, naturally, will be inflated by the scale of his victory, and channeling and managing the electorate's tumultuous passions in the days ahead will be a challenge even for a man who is perhaps the greatest public communicator in decades.

But if anyone is up to it, it's this extraordinary, and thoroughly unlikely, figure. When all the punditry and analysis is said and done, Obama's victory was made possible by no one but Obama himself.

For months and months Obama projected such calm, such steadiness and unflappability, and even such fundamental decency amid all the ugly political combat that he reassured and won over the trust of a nation embroiled in two wars abroad and an anxiety-provoking economic crisis at home -- even though he's black and his middle name is Hussein.

Video soon. Obama's full speech after the jump.

Late Update: Here's the video:

Read more »

Now that Obama has sewn up the presidency, let's swing over to the Senate races and the Dem quest for a filibuster-proof 60 seats. Here's the state of play: The Dems have so far picked up five Senate seats, with a few still up in the air -- but they probably won't reach that magic super-majority.

• In Colorado, a former Republican-leaning state, Democrat Mark Udall picked up the seat of retiring GOP Sen. Wayne Allard. With 49% reporting, Udall has 54% to Republican nominee Bob Schaffer's 42%.

• In New Hampshire, which has realigned from the Republicans to the Democrats over the last few years, former Dem Gov. Jeanne Shaheen defeated incumbent GOPer John Sununu, in a rematch from Sununu's win in 2002. With 54% reporting, Shaheen has 52% to Sununu's 45%.

• In North Carolina, atheist-baiting GOP Sen. Elizabeth Dole has gone down in crushing defeat. With 94% reporting, Democratic victor Kay Hagan has 53% to Dole's 44%.

• In New Mexico, Democrat Tom Udall -- a first cousin of Colorado's Sen.-Elect Mark Udall -- easily won the seat of retiring GOP Sen. Pete Domenici With 42% reporting, Udall has 59% to GOP Rep. Steve Pearce's 41%.

• In the newly-blue state of Virginia, former Dem Gov. Mark Warner easily dispatched former GOP Gov. Jim Gilmore for the seat of retiring GOP Sen. John Warner (no relation to Mark). With 93% reporting, Mark Warner has 64% to Gilmore's 35%.

The Republicans also missed out on their one true pickup opportunity, but by a much closer margin than anyone had expected. With 91% reporting, Sen. Mary Landrieu (D-LA) has defeated Republican candidate John Kennedy by a margin of 50%-48%. The pre-election polls has given Landrieu double-digit leads -- making this race a real what-might-have-been for the NRSC, if they'd only invested more money in this race instead of some of the losing campaigns listed above.

A few more races are pending:

• In Minnesota, the early exit polls have given Al Franken an advantage over GOP Sen. Norm Coleman, but this one is going down to the wire. With 40% reporting, the two are tied at 42% each, with 15% to third-party candidate Dean Barkley.

• In Oregon, GOP Sen. Gordon Smith is trailing Dem challenger Jeff Merkley by a 50%-45% margin, with an estimated 31% of the total ballots counted under Oregon's mail-in voting system.

• The polls are still open in Alaska, where GOP Senator and convicted felon Ted Stevens is expected to lose to Democratic opponent Mark Begich, the mayor of Anchorage. A Begich win would be a major coup in this deep-red state.

• There still has not been a declared result in Georgia. With 87% reporting, Sen. Saxby Chambliss (R) has 55% to Dem challenger Jim Martin's 41% -- but Chambliss' real opponent is the 50% threshold. If late returns put Chambliss under 50%, there will have to be a runoff held a month from now.

If the Dems can sweep Minnesota, Oregon and Alaska, the final tally for tonight will be a gain of eight seats -- for 59 Democratic Senators to 41 Republicans, assuming Joe Lieberman sticks with the Dem caucus. But that's another story.

It's over. It happened.

And we're looking at a tsunami.

The networks just called Obama the winner of the Presidential race.

Just before, CNN and Fox had called Virginia for Obama. With the Kerry states, that puts Obama at 297 Electoral College votes.

Indiana and North Carolina are dead heats, and Obama is ahead in Florida.

Huge. Obama has unleashed something extraordinary, and the potential is clearly there for an enduring Dem majority and a period of unchallenged Democratic dominance. Just indescribable.

Late Update: The Times's wrap-up is here. The Washington Post's is here. Politico's is here.

More coming.

Late Late Update: Meanwhile, the tsunami continues. MSNBC and ABC give Obama Colorado, and MSNBC and the Associated Press give him Florida. Whither Arizona?

Late Late Late Update: McCain is conceding. Says he called Obama to congratulate him.

Later Update: In a line that has assents of Hillary's concession and efforts at reconciliation way back when, McCain describes Obama as the man "who will be my president."

Still Later Update: During their phone call, Obama asked McCain for his help navigating the tough times ahead, says Obama spokesman Robert Gibbs:

Gibbs said Obama thanked McCain for his graciousness and said he had waged a tough race. He also said the Arizona senator was consistently someone who has showed class and honor during this campaign as he has during his entire life in public service.

Gibbs quoted Obama as saying, "I need your help, you're a leader on so many important issues."

Even Later Update: Hillary issues a statement:

Tonight, we are celebrating an historic victory for the American people. This was a long and hard fought campaign but the result was well worth the wait.

Together, under the leadership of President Barack Obama, Vice President Joe Biden, and a Democratic Congress, we will chart a better course to build a new economy and rebuild our leadership in the world. And I look forward to doing all that I can to support President Obama and Vice President Biden in the difficult work that lies ahead.

For too long, middle class families in this country have felt invisible, struggling alone as wages stagnate, jobs disappear, and the costs of daily life climb upward. In quiet, solitary acts of citizenship, American voters gave voice to their hopes and their values, voted for change, and refused to be invisible any longer.

Another Update: Bush calls Obama:

The two-term Republican president told the Illinois senator upon his historic win: "What an awesome night for you, your family and your supporters."...

Bush spokeswoman Dana Perino said the president told Obama: "You are about to go on one of the great journeys of life. Congratulations and go enjoy yourself."

Jack Murtha sure did pick a good year to insult his constituents.

Despite calling the people in his district racists and rednecks, multiple news outlets have now projected Murtha the winner against GOP candidate William Russell. With 56% of precincts in for Murtha's Pennsylvania district, Murtha has 58% of the vote to Russell's 42%. Whatever problems Murtha made for himself, the year's fundamental Democratic wave was more than enough to put him over the finish line.

This was Murtha's first real race in decades -- and it was itself created by his last-minute unforced error. With this whole mess behind him, he'll probably have a lot less to worry about in future cycles.

New England is now a House Republican-free zone, with Rep. Christopher Shays (R-CT) defeated by Democrat Jim Himes after 22 years in the House. After the 2006 elections, Shays was the last House Republican left from the six New England states.

Shays was an economic conservative and social liberal, a good fit for his district in many ways. But what killed him in the end was his staunch support for the Iraq War, and the full realignment of New England to the Dems.

And just to sweeten the deal: Shays is a good friend and political ally of Joe Lieberman.

Fox and MSNBC call New Mexico for Obama.

It's an important piece of the puzzle -- another Bush 2004 state snatched away from McCain, delivering Obama five Electoral Votes from the Republican column -- but it feels almost anti-climatic after the Ohio win.

The demographic changes in the west were always going to be key to an Obama victory, and the polls suggested early on in the race that New Mexico was going to be one battleground where he'd succeed.

Every additional Bush state that's snatched makes the possibility of some bizarre and freakish turnaround that much more remote, and makes a landslide loom as a real possibility.

Fox and MSNBC call Ohio for Obama.

Which is to say, unless these calls are overturned or there's some kind of shocking turnaround in a major blue state, Obama will win the Presidential race.

Late Update: Two more nets -- CNN and ABC -- call Ohio for Obama, too.

Late Late Update: The exit polls show again that Obama way outperformed among certain core at-risk constituencies in the Rust Belt. He won among men, among independents, among low-education voters, among whites under $50,000, and among union workers and household members. He carried 82% of Clinton Democrats.

Late Late Late Update: Obama has now edged into a lead in Virginia, with 85% reporting, and only half of Fairfax is in. He's holding a three point lead in Florida with 67% reporting. Indiana is a dead heat. We are now looking at the possibility of a tsunami.

MSNBC and Fox give Georgia to McCain.

Georgia was one of the dream states in the Obama map-broadening strategy; Obama aides went back up on the air in the state in the race's final days, though that felt a bit more like a head-fake than a real effort to snatch the state.

Separately, in other numbers, right now McCain is leading in Indiana, 51%-47%, with nearly half reporting, though Indiana bellwether counties are favoring Obama.

In Virginia, McCain is up 54%-45% with just over 41% reporting, but keep in mind that George Allen country's returns came in overwhelmingly first. There's still Webb country to be counted.

Late Update: The race is tightening in Virginia, as more of Webb country comes in.

Another incumbent Republican Senator has gone to defeat, with John Sununu of New Hampshire losing to Dem challenger Jeanne Shaheen in projections from CBS, NBC and Fox.

Sununu narrowly defeated Shaheen back in 2002, when New Hampshire was the Republicans' New England stronghold. But the Bush years have now realigned this long-time GOP bastion into a Democratic-leaning state -- for example, a lot of nets called it for Obama right when the polls closed.

Sununu didn't commit any particular fireable offense. Instead, he was a standard conservative Republican who found the political ground drastically shift right under his feet.

The Democrats have now knocked off a particularly nasty Republican incumbent, the atheist-baiting Sen. Elizabeth Dole of North Carolina, according to projections from Fox and CBS.

Dole, you might remember, put up a series of last-minute attack ads accusing Democratic challenger Kay Hagan of selling out to the "Godless Americans" atheist agenda.

Hagan, a church-goer and Sunday school teacher, responded with her own ads lambasting Dole for attacking her faith. And the subsequent polling showed that the attack backfired right on Dole -- she went from narrowly trailing Hagan to badly trailing Hagan.

MSNBC and ABC call McCain's "last stand" state for Obama.

That's a very early call, suggesting a big, big win.

More soon.

Late Update: The exit polls suggest that Obama won solid victories among key groups: He won among voters with only a high-school education, among Catholics, decisively among independents, among men, white women, among whites making under $50,000, and among voters of all age groups, including 65 or over.

Late Late Update: Fox calls the state for Obama, too.

Late Late Late Update: MSNBC exits show that Dems who wanted Hillary to win the primary went for Obama overwhelmingly, 81%-19%.

Cable news is certainly no stranger to over-developed on-screen graphics, but this is one for the ages: Jessica Yellin speaking from the ether (Grant Park) to talk to Wolf Blitzer about what's happening in Chicago.

It's an Obi-Wan moment if there ever was one.

Democrats are cheered by early numbers showing that Obama holds a healthy lead in Vigo County, a place that one Dem described to us as "the most reliable bellwether county in the country."

"Vigo has only been wrong on president twice since 1892," this Dem enthuses.

A story in the Indy Star concurs, adding that of the most reliable bellwhether counties in the country, Vego "has voted closest to the national margin."

Right now, in Vigo County, Obama is up 57%-42%, with 80% reporting.

More numbers coming.

Are you ready? With the first results due in less than an half an hour now (less than half an hour!) here's how things will unfold:

At 6 p.m. ET, most of Indiana and the first half of Kentucky will close, with the remainder closing at 7 p.m. ET due to time zones, so we'll get the first wave of info quickly after six. Don't panic at the early Indiana numbers: In the state, the Eastern Time region will probably trend more to McCain than the state overall, with Obama strongholds like Gary coming in later in that Central Time region.

At 7 p.m., things starts to get busy, with the polls closing in most of Florida and all of Virginia and info from those states soon to follow. If a result can be called quickly in Virginia, in Obama's favor, we'll have an early sense of where the race is headed.

Then at 7:30 p.m. ET the polls close in Ohio and North Carolina. Again, any quick calls here in either direction will tell us where the race is going.

At 8 p.m. ET, the polls close in key swing states like Pennsylvania and Missouri.

At 9 p.m. ET, polls close in Colorado and New Mexico, plus John McCain's home state of Arizona.

At 10 p.m. ET, the polls close in Iowa and Nevada.

And at 11 p.m. ET, the polls close along the West Coast and in Hawaii, which brings us to a very important number to keep in mind for tonight: 77, the total number of electoral votes in California, Oregon, Washington State and Hawaii. Those states are expected to be Obama landslides, with the 77 votes assigned to him practically at the moment those polls close.

So as news networks assign Obama electoral votes from the toss-up states as they close, add the 77 number on top of what is being commonly projected. If Obama reaches 193 electoral votes or more before 11 p.m. ET, he could effectively be the President-Elect pending those poll closures.

And, of course, we'll be blogging it all here at Election Central.

It's the perfect coda to robo-slime-gate.

John McCain has now recorded his own robo-slime calls, several readers report, in which he uses Joe Biden's recent prediction that Obama would be tested by a foreign policy crisis to hit Obama as unprepared to combat terror.

Sharon Smith, a software exec in a suburb of Columbus, Ohio, reports to us that her answering machine recorded the call this afternoon. She transcribed and sent in the script, which was delivered by McCain himself:

Hi. This is John McCain, and I'm calling today because while much of this election is focused on fixing our broken economy, we must also remember that dictators and terrorists worldwide are still plotting America's destruction.

Joe Biden has said that the election of Barack Obama as our president would invite a major international security crisis that Senator Obama would be unprepared to handle. The fact is that such a crisis doesn't need to occur.

I've prepared my entire life to understand what is needed to keep America safe in a dangerous world. I ask for your vote today. It couldn't be more important. Paid for by McCain-Palin 2008.

Several readers in other states report McCain's voice appearing in other robo-slime calls, too. It's funny that the McCain team apparently waited until the last day to do this.

With the campaign about to end in a few hours, let's pass the time with a look at Barack Obama's final rally last night in Manassas, Virginia, which had a crowd size estimated at over 85,000 people:

The message inherent in the anecdote Obama told here -- that he went to visit a single potential supporter in a remote rural area, at a time when he was way back in the polls, and now he's standing on Election Eve in front of over 85,000 people -- is that the campaign can't stop working for a single second.

The Obama campaign's message to supporters for the last day of the campaign was not so much about the issues as it was about the last-minute mechanics of the election -- turnout, turnout, turnout, and what every supporter can do to contribute to it.

Fox News and other conservatives on the Web are pushing hard on the story that two black panthers may be intimidating voters at a polling place in north Philadelphia.

But an Obama campaign volunteer who's been on the scene since 6:30 AM this morning tells me in a phone interview that there's been absolutely no intimidation of voters at all today. And a Pennsylvania spokesperson for Obama said the two men aren't in any way affiliated with the campaign.

Fox News' story is right here. It says one of two black panthers on the scene was "allegedly blocking the door," says another was "holding a nightstick." and adds that "the concern was that they were intimidating people who were trying to go inside to vote."

But Jacqueline Dischell, the Obama volunteer, tells me by phone that that's false.

Read more »

Keep asking and ye shall keep receiving: Here's a fresh thread for all of you to keep telling us your voting stories.

How does it feel out there? Speak.

It's become an article of faith about this race that outside groups didn't really lay out significant resources to influence the campaign's outcome. It turns out that this isn't really true, however.

A new study by the Campaign Finance Institute tallied up the numbers. More than $180 million will have been spent by so called "527" groups, less than the $338 million spent by them last time but still a sizable chunk of cash by any definition.

Meanwhile, other right-wing and business-backed groups poured huge money into the race, with the NRA chipping in $40 million and the U.S. Chamber of Commerce dropping $12 million.

And still other winger groups were active, too: Let Freedom Ring and the American Issues Group spent a combined $8 million on ads attacking Obama, for instance over his associations with William Ayers.

One other key finding, on a pet topic of ours: The big unions were huge in picking up the slack on the left. Since January of 2007, Dem-backing 527 groups spent $133 million, with the biggest players being unions like AFSCME and the SEIU. When the history of what happened in the battlegrounds is written, labor deserves a big, juicy plug.

Sarah Palin, asked a few moments ago in Wasilla, Alaska who she voted for in her state's Senate race, said:

I am also exercising my right to privacy and I don't have to tell anybody who I vote for. Nobody does, and that's really cool about America also.

In other hockey-mom-related news, Paul Krugman shares this lovely sighting:

On my way to teach, this morning: "Vote for the hero and the hottie." Yes, it was on a pickup truck.

Deep thought: If Obama wins, we won't have to listen to hottie anymore.

Ask and ye shall receive: Here's an open thread for all of you to share your voting stories.

How does it feel out there? Speak.

If Barack Obama wins all the Kerry states and their 252 Electoral College votes, as seems all but certain, and wins either Florida or Ohio, it's over. What if he doesn't win either of those states?

Here, as we await the results, are his main paths to victory.

The Virginia scenarios. If Obama takes Virginia, where the polls show him leading by anywhere from three to seven points, he gets the state's 13 electoral votes, putting him within five of the needed 270. At that point he'd only have to win one other of the following states: Iowa, Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico, Indiana, Missouri or North Carolina.

Keep in mind that Obama is leading significantly in Iowa and New Mexico, has decent leads in Colorado and Nevada, is tied in Missouri and North Carolina, is either tied or running just slightly behind in Indiana.

The non-Virginia scenarios. Without Virginia, Obama needs to win two or three of the following states, depending on the combination: Colorado (9 electoral votes), Indiana (9), Iowa (7), Missouri (11), New Mexico (5), North Carolina (15), Nevada (5). The minimum amount he needs is 18 votes.

That's where we are.

Late Update: To clarify, the reason we broke it down into Virginia and non-Virginia scenarios is because Virginia could potentially be called early on because of its relatively earlier poll closing time. If Obama wins the state, we may know fairly quickly that Obama is the next president. If not...

As I think Atrios put it on the eve of the 2006 elections, whatever happens today, we'll all get up tomorrow and just keep on working away. This is only one chapter in a much bigger story, and what a story it is. Wow.

But with this election about to end after two years, it seems like a good time to pause and thank you all for your loyalty and help throughout this amazing campaign, and to give you a sense of what's next on this site.

We wouldn't have been able to make this blog work without you. It got a little tense at times, no question, especially during the Dem primary. But you've all been an indispensable feature of this site. You all kept us in line -- rather aggressively -- when we were wrong or being dimwitted. You all kept the comment threads lively and incredibly smart.

Many of you provided us with no shortage of tips that made it possible to break stories here that -- I hope -- had some kind of impact, however limited, on the race. And you boosted traffic here at this site to an amazing degree -- on recent weekdays Election Central has been pulling in around a quarter of a million page views each day, and frequently more.

The whole premise of this blog is that it's possible to join with readers in actually caring about the outcome in politics while simultaneously doing real reporting with integrity and fairness. The conventions of political reporting have long held that this is a no-no. So be it -- we reject that idea. We think you can call McCain's robo-calls what they are -- robo-slime -- while simultaneously doing good journalism. I hope we pulled off this balancing act with some measure of success, and I hope we continue to do so.

What's next? We're going to keep right on going tomorrow, right through the transition and into the new administration. We need your help covering the next chapter.

Which is to say, come back tomorrow, and the next day, and the next. We won't be able to get it right without you.

Poll Closings
Here are the closing times in some of the key states: Most of Indiana closes at 6 p.m. ET, with the remainder closing at 7 p.m. ET; all of Virginia, most of Florida and most of New Hampshire close at 7 p.m. ET, with Florida panhandle and the remainder of New Hampshire closing at 8 p.m. ET; North Carolina and Ohio close at 7:30 p.m. ET; Missouri and Pennsylvania close at 8 p.m. ET; Arizona, Colorado and New Mexico close at 9 p.m. ET; and Nevada closes at 10 p.m. ET.

Obama Has Voted
Barack Obama has just finished voting, and was met by applause from other voters at his polling station.

Obama Greeting Voters In Indiana, Biden In Virginia, Then Off to Chicago
Barack Obama will be getting in his last bit of hand-shaking today, meeting and greeting voters in the Indianapolis area. Joe Biden will be meeting voters around Richmond, Virginia, and then going off to Chicago -- meaning that both members of the Dem ticket will be doing their final campaign activities in states that haven't gone Democratic in 44 years.

McCain Holds One More Rally, Palin Back In Alaska
John McCain is holding an Election Day rally -- a rare event -- at 2:15 p.m. ET in Grand Junction, Colorado. He will then greet voters in New Mexico, then spend Election Night in Phoenix. Sarah Palin will vote this morning in Alaska, and is then off to Phoenix.

Zogby: Final State Polls Paint Good Picture For Obama
The final round of Zogby swing-state polls gives Barack Obama the lead in several of the biggest swing states: Obama is up 49%-48% in Florida, 53%-42% in Nevada, 49%-47% in Ohio, 52%-45% in Virginia, and 51%-41% in Pennsylvania. McCain has a 50%-49% edge in North Carolina, a 50%-45% lead in Indiana, and the two are tied 49%-49% in Missouri.

Obama's Final Rally Gets Over 85,000 People
Barack Obama's final rally last night, held in Manassas, Virginia, had a strong turnout of more than 85,000 people. It's quite possible that the whole election could turn on tonight's result in Virginia.

McCain Held Home-State Rally Last Night
John McCain spoke to a crowd last night in Prescott, Arizona, winning last-minute votes in his home state. "We're closing in the polls," McCain said. "All we've got to do is get out the vote."

This Is It
If you are eligible but have not yet done so, please get out there and vote.

The final national poll from Marist is now out, and it's presenting a now-familiar number: Obama 52%, McCain 43%, with a ±3.5% margin of error. Another three percent say they'll support other candidates, and two percent are still undecided.

As we noted earlier today, a whole lot of polls have been converging around a figure of Obama receiving something in the neighborhood of 52% of the national popular vote.

Some of the pollsters have come to that conclusion by allocating undecideds, using demographic analyses and voters' answers to issue questions. Others haven't performed any allocations. But those have tend to push leaners more, getting a lower number of undecideds. In the polls where no allocation has been done, something has to happen with the remaining undecideds. So each candidates' final number should be at least a bit higher.

Polls can be wrong, of course, but it does seem worth noting that so many firms have reached roughly the same results, with all of them using different methodologies and competing for credibility.

The first results are in for the 2008 general election, with the small village of Dixville Notch, New Hampshire again performing its tradition of having everyone turn out to vote at midnight and then immediately reporting the results.

And the count is a real shocker, as just read on CNN: Obama 15 votes, McCain six votes -- in a place that has only voted Democratic once in the 50 years they've been doing this tradition.

The results here aren't really predictive of anything, either for New Hampshire or the country -- Lyndon Johnson in 1964, Richard Nixon in 1968, Bill Clinton in 1992 and 1996, plus John Kerry in 2004 all carried the state even as they lost here, and Obama carried it in the Democratic primary that he went on to lose. But the news that Obama picked up a well-known rural Republican stronghold is certainly not discouraging.

Late Update: We initially wrote that Dixville Notch has never voted Dem before -- but in fact they voted for Hubert Humphrey in 1968. Take that as another cautionary tale.

SurveyUSA has its final polls out in the big swing states of Florida and Pennsylvania, and both show Barack Obama ahead.

The numbers from Florida show a very narrow advantage for Barack Obama -- thanks in large part to the campaign's early-vote campaign. The numbers: Obama 50%, McCain 47%, a three-point lead with a ±3.8% margin of error. Two weeks ago, McCain had a 49%-47% edge.

The internals show Obama winning the early vote 58%-40%, with an estimated 58% of the total likely vote already cast. McCain wins the remaining likely voters 56%-38%, helping him to close the gap somewhat.

The ultimate result, then, depends on how many voters there really are left, and to what degree they break for McCain.

On top of that, their final poll from Pennsylvania doesn't show any good news for McCain. Obama has a lead of nine points, 52%-43%, compared to yesterday's poll that showed a 51%-44% Obama lead. If Obama picks up red states like Florida or other big gets like Virginia, and McCain can't poach Pennsylvania from the Democratic column, it will be a very bad night for the GOP.

As we head into Election Day tomorrow, a look at polls reveals a fact that hasn't truly sunk in: Tomorrow is not truly Election Day, but more like the end of the Election Weeks, with the Obama campaign having built up substantial leads in early-vote states, which John McCain has to overcome if he wants to pull off a win.

Take a look at these examples:

• In Florida, Public Policy Polling (D) has Obama up 56%-42% among early voters, with an estimated 56% of the total likely vote now cast. McCain is ahead 54%-43% with the rest, for an overall top-line of Obama 50%, McCain 48%.

• In Nevada, Public Policy Polling (D) has Obama up 57%-43% among early voters, with an estimated 71% of the total likely vote already cast. McCain is up 57%-38% among the remaining votes, for an overall top-line result of Obama 51%, McCain 47% -- but McCain would need to win the remaining voters by more than two to one, if these estimates are accurate.

• In Ohio, SurveyUSA has Obama ahead 60%-36% among the early voters, with an estimated 30% of the total vote already cast. McCain is ahead 51%-43% among the remainder, for an overall top-line of Obama 48%, McCain 46%. But the pollster's analysis expresses serious doubt about whether McCain can get the needed extra margin to overcome Obama's early-vote lead, based on the demographics of the remaining voters.

It's worth remembering that a whole lot of those Obama campaign rallies over the last few weeks were officially billed as being "Early Vote For Change" rallies, in which Barack Obama, Joe Biden, Michelle Obama or some other surrogate would take a moment out from the standard talk about change and hope in order to deliver a civics lesson about how to vote early, and why the audience members should do it right after the rally.

In short, the Obama campaign didn't wait for Election Day to execute their get-out-the-vote strategy. They've been very actively pursuing it this whole time, bringing voters out early so they wouldn't have to worry about it as much on Election Day. And if he narrowly wins any of these red states tomorrow, that strategy may end up having been the decisive factor.

Here's our final nightly run-down of the Congressional races:

GOP Senator's Campaign Denies Distributing Sample Ballot Implying He's A Dem
Check this out. The campaign of Sen. Roger Wicker (R-MS), who is running in a special election that won't have party affiliation listed on the ballot, is being accused by the Dems of circulating this misleading sample ballot that asks recipients to vote for the Democratic candidates in every race -- except his own:

As Phil Singer remarks: "I can't remember the last time a Mississippi Republican pretended to be a Democrat in a statewide election."

Late Update: In an interview with Election Central, Wicker spokesman Ryan Annison denied any involvement by the campaign. "The honest to goodness truth is this is the first time we've seen it," said Annison. "At five o'clock the night before the election, I can't say that our opponent's press releases are a priority."

Obama Cuts Radio Ad For Wicker's Opponent
Meanwhile, the campaign of Wicker's Democratic opponent Ronnie Musgrove has this radio ad targeted at Democratic voters, featuring Barack Obama reminding listeners who it is that he'd like them to support:

Click To Play

The trouble that these candidates have gone to in order to inform people of their party affiliations -- and perhaps to obfuscate that point -- is as good an argument as any against non-partisan elections.

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Here's our final daily composite of the six major national tracking polls. Many national polls have coalesced around a projected 52% popular-vote share for Barack Obama, and it shows in our composite:

• Gallup: Obama 53%, McCain 42%, with a ±2% margin of error, compared to a 52%-43% lead from yesterday.

• Rasmussen: Obama 52%, McCain 46%, with a ±2% margin of error, compared to a 51%-46% Obama lead from yesterday.

• ABC/Washington Post: Obama 53%, McCain 44%, with a ±2% margin of error, compared to a 54%-43% Obama lead yesterday

• Hotline/Diageo: Obama 50%, McCain 45%, with a ±3.3% margin of error, unchanged from yesterday.

• Research 2000: Obama 51%, McCain 45%, with a ±3% margin of error, compared to a 51%-44% Obama lead from yesterday.

• Zogby: Obama 51%, McCain 44%, with a ±2.9% margin of error, compared to a 50%-44% Obama lead from yesterday.

Adding these polls together and weighting them by the square roots of their sample sizes, Obama is ahead 51.9%-44.3%, a lead of 7.6 points, compared to the 51.5%-44.2% Obama lead from yesterday.

Counting today, Obama's lead has increased by small amounts in the last five consecutive Composites.

Most elections conclude with a tightening of the race, as the underdog picks up some final bit of steam. But this one seems to have been an exception -- McCain began closing the gap, but then Obama just pulled away all over again.

One more important poll is due tomorrow. We'll be live-blogging it when it comes out.

Here's the statement just in from Barack Obama and his half sister, Maya Soetoro-Ng, on the death of their grandmother:

It is with great sadness that we announce that our grandmother, Madelyn Dunham, has died peacefully after a battle with cancer. She was the cornerstone of our family, and a woman of extraordinary accomplishment, strength, and humility. She was the person who encouraged and allowed us to take chances. She was proud of her grandchildren and great-grandchildren and left this world with the knowledge that her impact on all of us was meaningful and enduring. Our debt to her is beyond measure.

Our family wants to thank all of those who sent flowers, cards, well-wishes, and prayers during this difficult time. It brought our grandmother and us great comfort. Our grandmother was a private woman, and we will respect her wish for a small private ceremony to be held at a later date. In lieu of flowers, we ask that you make a donation to any worthy organization in search of a cure for cancer.

His grandmother, his primary caregiver for many years, passes away today. And he's very likely to be elected president tomorrow. It's hard to imagine what the emotional tumult must be like.

Late Update: John and Cindy McCain have released this statement:

"We offer our deepest condolences to Barack Obama and his family as they grieve the loss of their beloved grandmother. Our thoughts and prayers go out to them as they remember and celebrate the life of someone who had such a profound impact in their lives."

The final polls coming in from Indiana and Virginia, two state that haven't voted Democratic since the 1964 LBJ landslide but where the Obama campaign has aggressively competed, show these states going down to the wire, with a better picture for Obama in Virginia:

• Indiana: Public Policy Polling (D) gives Obama a one-point lead, 49%-48%, compared to a 48%-46% Obama edge two weeks ago. Zogby has McCain up by five points, 49%-44%, compared to a 50%-44% McCain lead a week ago.

• Virginia: PPP has Obama up by six points, 52%-46%, compared to a 52%-43% Obama lead a week ago. Zogby has Obama up by six points, 51%-45%, compared to a 52%-45% Obama lead a week ago. And Rasmussen has Obama up 51%-47%, unchanged from a week ago.

If Obama picks up either of these states, which Republican have been able to count on winning for 44 years, it could potentially signal an Electoral College landslide.

A Democrat forwards me the internal talking points that the Obama campaign is distributing today to surrogates, instructing them to discuss the end of the race by discounting the polls and touting the campaign's Pennsylvania operation as a sign of the campaign's overall strength:

Everyone knows this is going to be a close race -- and we don't pay attention to the polls. We're going to continue to put 110 percent into this effort, and we're confident that it will pay dividends on Election Day.

Just to give you a sense of the scale of our operation, take a look at what we're doing in Pennsylvania alone: This weekend, volunteers knocked on more than 1.8 million doors and made 1.2 million phone calls -- in Pennsylvania alone.

The talking points also tell surrogates to stress the fact that Obama returned today to the site in Florida where McCain committed his original "fundamentals of the economy are strong" gaffe. For those of you who like this sort of stuff, the full talking points are after the jump.

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In the home stretch of the campaign, the final polls are starting to show some sense of convergence in predicting Barack Obama's vote total: The common prediction is that he will get about 52% of the national vote or perhaps even better, the best showing for a Democrat since LBJ's landslide in 1964.

As we noted yesterday, the Pew poll is predicting Obama will get 52% of the vote to McCain's 46%, based on allocating undecideds by their answers on key issues. But other polls are showing a similar pattern.

The new Ipsos/McClatchy poll has Obama at 50% to McCain's 42% among likely voters. Ipsos also allocated undecideds base on the issues, and they ended up with Obama 53%, McCain 46%.

On top of that, the new Fox News poll has Obama at 50% to McCain's 43% among likely voters. If you want to venture a guess at how the undecideds in that poll would break, take a look at these two questions, asked of all respondents:

Do you think Barack Obama has the right experience to be president?

Yes 52, No 45

Do you think John McCain can bring the right kind of change to Washington?

Yes 43, No 52

When I spoke yesterday with Scott Keeter from the Pew Research Center, he explained that the answers to those two questions -- whether Obama is qualified, and whether McCain would bring change to Washington -- were the best predictors of voter preference.

In a speech just now in Missouri, Sarah Palin unleashed some of the most ostentatious POW-POW-POWing of the campaign, and strongly implied that Dems think the "terrorists" are the "good guys."

After saying that some Dems want to cut defense spending by a quarter, she said:

"What do they think? Do they think that the terrorists have all of a sudden become the good guys, and changed their minds? No! The terrorists still seek to destroy America and her allies and all that it is that is that we stand for: Freedom, tolerance, equality."

A bit later in the speech came the POW-POW-POWing:

"And for a season a man may inspire with his words, but it's been for his lifetime that John McCain has inspired with his trustworthy and heroic deeds. On the decks of aircraft carriers and in the lonely cell of a prison camp -- and in the halls of the US capital -- John McCain has always proudly put his country first, he has always fought for America!

"John served our nation in uniform for twenty two years. He spent five and a half years as a POW. He has met great adversity in his life and in the service to this country. He knows how tough challenges are overcome, he will not wave the white flag of surrender to the terrorists, he will not -- as our opponent did -- he will not support cutting off funding for our troops over in the war zone."

And so Palin's final appeal on the eve of almost certain defeat puts it right out in the open: It's war hero versus ally of terrorists who want to destroy America and kill your children.

Which gives rise to a question: What American presidential campaign has been more crassly militaristic and jingoistic than this one? Bush in 2004 pales in comparison. TPM's resident trivia fanatic, Eric Kleefeld, suggests James Polk's 1844 campaign, based on an appeal to expand America's borders by force, or George Wallace's 1968 campaign, in which he chose as his running mate someone who helped pioneer carpet-bombing. Thoughts, anyone?

Should Obama win this thing, the depths McCain-Palin have sunk to will only make Obama's victory that much more rewarding and momentous.

The Republican Jewish Coalition -- which recently hit Pennsylvania mailboxes with a mailer implying a vote for Obama could produce a second Holocaust -- is now hitting Ohio with a wave of incendiary new mailers that directly target his association with Reverend Wright.

"Barack Obama's friends and advisors: Pro-Palestinian, Anti-Israel, even hostile to America," reads the mailer, adding that his associates harbor "anti-Israel views" that are "dangerous, naive and reckless."

A second mailer attacks Obama on Israel with a picture of the Wailing Wall, a holy site whose use in a political attack could prove offensive to many Jews.

Ironically, both mailers, which are presumably targeted to Jewish voters, landed in the Columbus-area mailbox of Cliff Schecter, the author of the anti-McCain book "The Real McCain." Schecter sent them in to us.

Here's the Wright mailer, with the Reverend's photo squarely in the center, above the words "hostile to America" (click on the images to enlarge):

And here's the Wailing Wall mailer, which hits Obama for supposedly backtracking on his support for an undivided Jerusalem, a claim strongly disputed by the Obama camp:

Schecter also says he received a copy of the Pennsylvania missive on the Holocaust, meaning that the Republican Jewish Coalition's campaign is active in multiple states.

Obama heads into election day with a comfortable nine-point lead over McCain, a new Marist poll finds: Obama 53%, McCain 44%, outside of the ±4% margin of error, compared to Friday's release that had Obama up 50%-43%.

Assuming Obama ultimately wins the election tomorrow, the internals suggest that the combination of his solid debate performances and the economic anxieties created by the Wall St. meltdown helped him to seal the deal.

When asked what events sealed their decisions on who to vote for, 22% of Obama supporters named the debates, and another 11% named the economic crisis. Only 13% of McCain supporters said it was the debates, and five percent said it was the economic crash.

A new robo-slime call from John McCain hits Obama on the economy, suggesting that a vote for the Democrat is a vote for a depression, a Wisconsin reader tells us.

The call -- which is not quite as slimy as McCain's other robo-slime -- was sent in by Judi Gunn, a legal secretary in Racine, Wisconsin. Here's audio:

Click To Play

Script:

Hello, I'm calling for John McCain and the RNC because Barack Obama and his fellow Democrats have no idea how to deal with an economic crisis. The stock market's in free fall and their plan to fix it is to raise taxes on income, savings, investment and even social security. A massive tax increase and over one trillion dollars in new spending is the sort of recklessness and irresponsibility that pushes a recession into a depression. This call is paid for by the Republican National Committee at 866 558-5591, and authorized by McCain-Palin 2008.

The author of this call appears to have forgotten which party has been in charge during the years leading up to our meltdown.

In other robo-slime news, Ben Smith reports that a GOP group is running a call in Pennsylvania attacking Obama over Wright and his aunt.

A new round of Zogby state polls shows tight races in key battlegrounds -- but John McCain is not faring well in his new linchpin state of Pennsylvania, and Barack Obama has plenty of opportunities to pick up red states:

• Florida: Obama 48%, McCain 46%, compared to last week's 50%-46% Obama lead.

• Indiana: McCain 49%, Obama 44%, compared to last week's 50%-44% McCain lead.

• Missouri: Obama 47%, McCain 46%, compared to last week's 48%-46% Obama lead.

• Nevada: Obama 51%, McCain 43%, compared to last week's 48%-44% Obama lead.

• North Carolina: McCain 49%, Obama 48%, compared to last week's 50%-46% Obama lead.

• Ohio: Obama 50%, McCain 44%, compared to last week's 50%-45% Obama lead.

• Pennsylvania: Obama 54%, McCain 40%, with no previous Zogby poll for comparison.

• Virginia: Obama 51%, McCain 45%, compared to last week's 52%-45% Obama lead.

All of these polls have a ±4.1% margin of error, and all of these states except Pennsylvania went to George W. Bush twice. If we gave Obama all the states where Zogby currently puts him ahead, he would gain 66 electoral votes from the Republican column, which would give him a comfortable Electoral College victory, presuming he wins all the Kerry states.

Some interesting numbers from the internals of the new NBC/WSJ poll illustrate as clearly as you could want that every one of McCain's major attack lines has been a complete flop:

* Despite months of attacks on Obama's allegedly sinister background and cultural identity, a solid majority of likely voters, 57%, say that Obama has a background and set of values they can identify with, versus only 39% who say he doesn't. Those numbers are virtually identical to McCain's, which are 57%-38%.

* Asked which would concern them more about an Obama presidency, his lack of experience or the possibility that he would raise taxes, 14% cite taxes and 20% cite inexperience. Forty-eight percent -- more than those two combined -- say that "neither is a concern." This, despite weeks of attacks on Obama as a lightweight and empty suit who wants to hike taxes on ordinary plumbers and hockey moms everywhere.

* Despite all the attacks suggesting that Obama harbors a secret and shadowy agenda that he has yet to reveal, a huge majority of 67% say that they know what Obama and Biden would do if elected.

All those lies, all for naught.

Uh oh. Not a whole lot of crowd enthusiasm at John McCain's first event today in Florida, as per the St. Petersburg Times's political blog:

About 30 minutes before John McCain is scheduled to lead a rally outside Raymond James Stadium, looks like maybe 1,000 people here. What's up with that? On the day before the election? Bush drew at least 15,000 people to a rally just across the street on the Sunday before the 04 election.

"We are the quiet majority that goes out and gets things done..I smell victory,'' said state Rep. Kevin Ambler. Good thing he smells it, because it's hard to see it with this crowd.

Meanwhile, at least as many have already turned up at Obama's Florida event, even though it's not scheduled to begin for at least two hours.

Quinnipiac: Obama Ahead in Big Three
The final Quinnipiac polls of the largest three swing states give Barack Obama stable leads of various margins: Obama ahead by two points in Florida, 47%-45%, unchanged from a week ago; Obama ahead by seven points in Ohio, 50%-43, compared to a 51%-42% lead a week ago; and Obama up by ten points in Pennsylvania, 52%-42%, compared to a 53%-41% lead a week ago. The poll of Florida has a ±2.3% margin of error, and the polls of Ohio and Pennsylvania have a ±2.5% margin of error.

PPP Also Shows Obama Ahead In Big Three
The new state polls from Public Policy Polling also paint a cautiously optimistic picture for Obama in the Big Three: Obama ahead by two points in Florida, 50%-48%, compared to a 48%-47% Obama edge two weeks ago; Obama ahead two points in Ohio, 50%-48%, compared to a 51%-44% Obama lead a week and a half ago; and Obama up by eight points in Pennsylvania, 53%-45%, with no prior PPP survey for comparison. The margins of error are ±2.4% in Florida, ±2.8% in Ohio, and ±2.5%.

Barack Obama In Florida, North Carolina And Virginia; Michelle In Nevada And Colorado
Barack Obama has a morning rally in Jacksonville, Florida, a 5:30 p.m. ET rally in Charlotte, North Carolina, and will then finish out the campaign with a 9 p.m. ET rally in Manassas, Virginia. Michelle Obama will hold a 2:30 p.m. ET rally in Las Vegas, Nevada, and a 6 p.m. ET rally in Littleton, Colorado.

Biden In Missouri, Ohio -- And Pennsylvania
Joe Biden is holding a 10:30 a.m. ET rally in Lee's Summit, Missouri, a 3:45 p.m. ET rally in Zanesville, Ohio, a 7:30 p.m. ET rally in Copley, Ohio, and finally a 10 p.m. ET rally in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania.

McCain In Six States Today
John McCain has a very busy schedule for the final day of the campaign: An 8:55 a.m. ET rally in Tampa, Florida, an 11:45 a.m. rally in Blountville, Tennessee; a 1:50 p.m. ET rally in Moon Township, Pennsylvania; a 4 p.m. ET rally in Indianapolis; an 8 p.m. ET rally in Roswell, New Mexico; and a 10:45 p.m. ET rally in Henderson, Nevada. The inclusion of Tennessee seems rather curious -- this one is widely viewed as a safe state, and he could probably spend his time more usefully in other states.

Palin Doing Six Events In Five States
Sarah Palin also has a very big day ahead of her: A 9:15 a.m. ET rally in Lakewood, Ohio; a 1 p.m. ET rally in Jefferson City, Missouri; a 4 p.m. ET rally in Dubuque, Iowa; a 7:45 p.m. ET rally in Colorado Springs; an 11:30 p.m. ET rally in Reno, Nevada; and a 1:30 a.m. ET rally in Elko, Nevada.

Roughly 27 Million Votes Already Cast
The Associated Press reports that over 27 million ballots were already cast up through Saturday night, the most recent time for which the data is available. Polling data suggests that Barack Obama has carried the early vote handily this year, meaning that John McCain will need to win the votes cast on Election Day by a strong margin.

McCain: Tuesday We "Take America In A New Direction"
John McCain declared at a midnight rally in Miami, "There's just one day left until we take America in a new direction." The heckling opportunities on this one are just too obvious.

A few moments ago in Ohio, Barack Obama tweaked his ongoing mockery of Dick Cheney's McCain endorsement a bit.

"Yesterday, Dick Cheney came out of his undisclosed location," Obama said. "He said that he is, and I quote, 'Delighted to support John McCain.' He's delighted. You've never seen Dick Cheney delighted before. But he is. That's kind of hard to picture."

"So I would like to congratulate Senator McCain on this endorsement," Obama continued, "because he really earned it. He worked hard for it."

McCain has been such a loyal supporter of the Bush-Cheney agenda that the opportunity to endorse him has made even Cheney smile. Funny.

One more day.

Here's tonight's run-down of the Congressional races:

Uncle Ted To Address Alaska On Election Eve
Sen. Ted Stevens (R-AK), who is widely expected to lose re-election as a result of his recent felony conviction, will make a final plea (no pun intended) for his political future tomorrow night. Stevens will air a two-minute TV ad across Alaska's media markets, making the case that he should be allowed to continue to serve as Alaska's senior Senator.

Minnesota GOP Mailer Lies About The Constitution
A mailer from the Minnesota Republican Party, provided to us by two different readers in the state, gets around the pitfall of implying that the presidential race is lost in its rhetorical efforts to keep the Democrats from getting 60 seats -- they just lie about how the Constitution works:

"The U.S. Senate could have a 'super majority' of 60 Democrats after this election, allowing them to pass laws without bipartisan input or teamwork," the mailer says. "Not even a Presidential Veto will be able to stop them." The actual threshold for overriding a presidential veto is 67 votes. Minnesota GOP spokesperson Gina Countryman refused to speak with Election Central to confirm or deny the authenticity of the mailer.

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Here's our daily composite of the six major national tracking polls. Barack Obama's lead is continuing to inch upwards in the daily tracking polls, undoing much of the progress that John McCain made about a week ago:

• Gallup: Obama 52%, McCain 43%, with a ±2% margin of error, compared to a 52%-42% lead from yesterday.

• Rasmussen: Obama 51%, McCain 46%, with a ±2% margin of error, unchanged from yesterday.

• ABC/Washington Post: Obama 54%, McCain 43%, with a ±2% margin of error, compared to a 53%-44% Obama lead yesterday

• Hotline/Diageo: Obama 50%, McCain 45%, with a ±3.3% margin of error, compared to a 51%-44% Obama lead from yesterday.

• Research 2000: Obama 51%, McCain 44%, with a ±3% margin of error, unchanged from yesterday.

• Zogby: Obama 50%, McCain 44%, with a ±2.9% margin of error, compared to a 49%-44% Obama lead from yesterday.

Adding these polls together and weighting them by the square roots of their sample sizes, Obama is ahead 51.5%-44.2%, a lead of 7.3 points, compared to the 51.2%-44.1% Obama lead from yesterday. Counting today, Obama's lead has increased by small amounts in the last four consecutive Composites.

A new national poll is going beyond saying Obama is ahead: It's predicting that Obama will win by six points.

The final Pew poll predicts that the outcome will be Obama 52%, McCain 46%, with the remainder split among third-party candidates. The top-line result among likely voters right now is Obama 49%, McCain 42%, with a ±2.5% margin of error. Last week, Obama had a much wider lead of 53%-38%.

In an interview, Pew's director of survey research Scott Keeter explained to us how they arrived at that 52%-46% predicted outcome. Pew performed a statistical analysis looking at the remaining undecideds on the basis of their demographics and their answers to issue questions, in order to project how they'll vote -- if they'll vote at all, that is.

"This is an unusual group of people, anybody who could get to this point in the campaign and not have made a decision," Keeter said. "So you have to think some of these people are not even going to vote."

Pew predicts a very narrow break of undecideds to McCain, and it won't be enough to overcome Obama's lead.

The same methodology was right on the money in 2004, predicting Bush at 51% of the vote to Kerry's 48%, and in the very-close 2000 election was slightly off in giving Bush 49% to Gore's 47%. But in an election that doesn't seem as close as close as it was in 2000, Keeter doesn't think any remaining uncertain factors will be enough to undo Obama's lead.

When the history of this campaign is written, a bunch of people will have to bust their butts to make sure that John McCain's non-stop lying and epic dishonesty aren't disappeared down the memory hole.

Case in point: On the trail just now in Pennsylvania, McCain again repeated a lie about Joe Biden, even though it was debunked as false days ago. He said:

"But this week, Senator Joe the Biden said tax relief should only go to middle class people making under $150,000 a year. And remember when he equated patriotism to paying taxes?"

But this claim was exposed as false by CNN days ago. Biden simply never said that people making less than $150,000 are the "only" people who should get tax relief.

Apologies for being so earnest about this. But the fact that McCain lied to the American people nonstop for months on end, in the firm belief that he could get away with it because the American people would be too stupid to know the difference, is, perversely, one for the history books. Let's not let the amnesia kick in when the inevitable effort to rehabilitate McCain's reputation and honor gets underway after this campaign is over.

The Virginia GOP is putting a flyer on cars outside churches in Virginia that compares the candidates' records on abortion and gay marriage and demands that voters "vote your values," a reader in Fairfax reports.

Click on the images to enlarge:

"Vote your values," the flyer commands -- and not your economic interests.

"We need a President who brings honor and integrity to the highest office in the land," it also reads, a line that puts the Virginia GOP at odds with McCain, who has conceded that Obama is "very honorable."

Still another round of battleground state polling -- this one from Mason-Dixon -- shows Barack Obama and John McCain splitting seven key Bush states by narrow margins.

If these numbers hold up, it would mean an overall victory for Obama:

• Colorado: Obama 49%, McCain 44%.

• Florida: Obama 47%, McCain 45%.

• Missouri: McCain 47%, Obama 46%.

• Nevada: Obama 47%, McCain 43%.

• North Carolina: McCain 49%, Obama 46%.

• Ohio: McCain 47%, Obama 45%.

• Virginia: Obama 47%, McCain 43%.

All these polls have a margin of error of ±4%. The four states where Obama is ahead add up to 54 electoral votes, with another 46 votes in the states where McCain is ahead. And all 100 of those electoral votes went to Bush last time. If Obama holds the Kerry states, and tacks on those 46 -- heck, if he tacks on another 18 -- he's the next President.

Mason-Dixon has tended to paint a rosier picture for McCain than other pollsters out there, and even they are in effect forecasting a McCain loss.

A new set of state polls show Barack Obama leading in three Bush 2004 states -- one down to the wire, one by a decent margin, and one by a landslide.

A new SurveyUSA poll of Virginia shows that this state is a tight race going into the final days of the campaign, with Barack Obama up by just four points. The numbers: Obama 50%, McCain 46%, with a ±3.9% margin of error. A week ago, Obama had a heftier lead of nine points, 52%-43%. Today's poll has the same margin as the new Mason-Dixon poll, which has Obama up 47%-43%, although with a smaller number of undecideds.

In New Mexico, which narrowly went to Bush in 2004, today's Albuquerque Journal poll has Obama ahead by eight points, 51%-43%, similar to last night's SurveyUSA poll with Obama up 52%-45%. A month ago, the Journal's poll had Obama up 45%-40%.

The new Selzer poll of Iowa gives Obama a massive 17-point lead, 54%-37%, in a state that narrowly went to Bush in 2004, compared to a 52%-40% Obama lead in September. Obama has consistently led McCain here, despite McCain still putting some decent money into the state.

Late Update: It's also worth noting that the Columbus Dispatch's final Ohio poll, which has had a perfect track record in modern political history of predicting the winner of the state's electoral votes, has Obama up 52%-46%.

Late Late Update: Mason-Dixon also has some more polls showing Obama and McCain splitting seven key Bush states by close margins, which would give Obama the White House if those numbers were to hold up on Election Day.

Late Late Update: On top of this, the new Pew poll is predicting that Obama will have an overall win of 52%-46% in the national popular vote.

The Pennsylvania GOP goes up with its own ad hitting Obama's association with Jeremiah Wright:

We were unable to immediately confirm details of the buy.

It's worth noting that the McCain campaign's claim that Pennsylvania is within reach -- and could be key to a McCain victory -- has prompted outside groups allied with McCain to really get serious about hosing down the state with slime. Most recently we had the Republican Jewish Coalition's flyer yesterday saying a vote for Obama could be a vote for a second Holocaust, and now today's Wright ad. More soon, we trust.

Uh oh -- McCain may have lost John Zogby.

Today's Zogby tracking poll finds Obama ahead by six points nationally among likely voters, prompting Zogby to offer a bleak assessment of McCain's chances:

"There are two full days to go before Election Day and obviously anything can happen, but it is hard to see where McCain goes from here," pollster John Zogby said.

What's fun about this is that the winger bloggers and media have been pushing Zogby numbers to make the case that McCain could still win. Yesterday Drudge went mad flacking a cherry-picked number from Zogby's tracking polling to push the idea that McCain had taken the lead. Even today, the New York Post has the following huge headline, based on the same number:

POLL LIFTS HOPE OF MAC MIRACLE

Incidentally, Zogby himself wants the wingers to stop frothing over his numbers. In his release today, he says: "A special note to blogger friends: calm it down."

An Obama aide emails to say that Joe Biden will make a stop in Pennsylvania tomorrow, a sign that the Obama campaign is taking McCain-Palin's big push in the state somewhat seriously, contrary to some conjecture.

Biden's planned trip to the state -- the only stop that either Dem is making in a Kerry state today or tomorrow -- comes as a new SurveyUSA poll has Obama's lead shrinking: He's now up seven points, 51%-44%, compared to a 12-point lead, 53%-41%, a week ago. Meanwhile, today's daily tracking poll from Muhlenberg has Obama up seven points, 52%-45%, compared to an 11-point lead, 52%-41%, a week ago.

Obama is still favored to win Pennsylvania. But it will probably be a much closer margin than the double-digit leads that Obama had racked up just a few weeks ago. Biden's job will partly be to keep any Obama soft-supporters right where they are.

Separately, Ben Smith and Avi Zenilman have a good piece this morning on the racial aspects of the unions' massive efforts to win over blue-collar whites in the Rust Belt states, something that we've been obsessed with here and in our view has gotten far too little attention.

Poll: Tight Race In Virginia
A new Mason-Dixon poll of Virginia gives Barack Obama a lead of 47% to John McCain's 44%, with a ±4% margin of error, not significantly changed from a 47%-45% Obama lead a week ago. The poll also shows that white voters are disproportionately undecided, which if true could mean a late break in John McCain's direction -- the question is whether this pattern in Virginia politics repeats again, and whether it's enough of a break to overcome Obama's lead.

Bellwether Poll: Obama Ahead By Six In Ohio
The new Columbus Dispatch poll of Ohio, conducted by mail, has Barack Obama ahead of John McCain by a 52%-46% margin, with a ±2% margin of error, compared to a 49%-42% Obama lead a month ago. Historically, the leader in the Dispatch's final Ohio poll has consistently carried the state.

Obama In Ohio, Biden In Florida
Barack Obama is campaigning through Ohio today, with a 1 p.m. ET rally in Columbus with Michelle Obama, a 3:45 p.m. ET rally in Cleveland with Michelle and Bruce Springsteen, and a solo rally at 9 p.m. ET in Cincinnati. Joe Biden is swinging through Florida, with a 10:45 a.m. ET rally in Tallahassee, a 4 p.m. ET rally in Gainesville, and a 7:15 p.m. ET rally in Daytona Beach.

McCain In Pennsylvania, New Hampshire And Florida; Palin In Ohio
John McCain is making a final attempt to win over two Kerry states today, with an 11:45 a.m. ET rally in Wallingford, Pennsylvania, a 2 p.m. ET rally in Scranton, Pennsylvania, and a 6:15 p.m. ET town hall-style event in Peterborough, New Hampshire, followed by a rally after midnight in Miami, Florida, his one red state for the day. Sarah Palin is touring through the Bush state of Ohio today, with a 12 p.m. ET rally in Canton, a 2:30 p.m. ET rally in Marietta, a 5 p.m. ET rally in Columbus, and an 8 p.m. ET rally in Batavia.

Hillary Campaigning For Obama In Virginia
Hillary Clinton is holding a rally at 4:30 p.m. ET in Fairfax, Virginia, on behalf of Barack Obama. Earlier in the day she will also be campaigning in Kentucky for Bruce Lunsford, the Dem candidate against Senate GOP Leader Mitch McConnell.

Poll: Obama Way Up In New Mexico Early Vote
A new SurveyUSA poll of New Mexico, which narrowly voted for George W. Bush in 2004, shows Barack Obama with a 58%-39% lead among those who have already voted, with an estimated 60% of the total ballots already cast. If these estimates are all accurate, John McCain would need to win the remaining likely voters by nearly two to one in order to carry the state -- but he's only ahead 54%-41% with this subset, for an overall top-line result of Obama 52%, McCain 45%, with a ±3.9% margin of error.

Gibbs: We Screen Obama's Calls
Obama adviser and surrogate Robert Gibbs had this to say about Sarah Palin's phone call with a Canadian prank-call comedian saying he was the President of France: "I'm glad we check out our calls before we hand the phone to Barack Obama."

Inevitably, Dick Cheney's endorsement of John McCain yesterday ends up in an Obama ad:

The spot, which is set to run on national cable, also highlights Cheney's kind words about Sarah Palin, and contrasts the Cheney endorsement of the McCain-Palin ticket with the support Obama has won from Warren Buffett and Colin Powell.