Two More Polls Give Obama The Lead In Virginia
Two new polls give Barack Obama solid leads in Virginia, which hasn't voted Democratic since the LBJ landslide of 1964.
The numbers from Rasmussen: Obama 54%, McCain 44%, outside of the ±3% margin of error. A week ago, Obama had a narrow lead of 50%-47%, and it was 50%-48% for Obama two weeks ago.
The new poll from SurveyUSA: Obama 51%, McCain 45%, with a ±3.9% margin of error. Two weeks ago, SurveyUSA had Obama up 53%-43%. The internals this week show Obama winning 42% of the white vote, well ahead of John Kerry's 32% in 2004.
Relatedly, Chris Bowers argues persuasively over at Open Left that the overall map is such that that McCain needs to sweep -- yes, sweep -- victories in seven Bush states in order to avoid losing: Colorado, Florida, Missouri, Nevada, North Carolina, Ohio, and Virginia. That puts individual state polls like these into much-needed perspective.
Georgia (PPP): McCain 46, Obama 44, Barr 2, Nader 2
I see good signs in GA.
October 20, 2008 4:49 PM | Reply | Permalink
Let me correct. That was not PPP polling but Democracy Corps (October 16-19).
October 20, 2008 4:53 PM | Reply | Permalink
Wheeee!!!!!!!
I would be very suprised if Obama can pull it out here in GA, but it bodes very well for the senate race.
October 20, 2008 5:05 PM | Reply | Permalink
Winning Georgia would truly be an embarrassment to the Republicans. It would completely be unexpected to most.
October 20, 2008 5:13 PM | Reply | Permalink
Here's some "perspective" for Kleefeld
Sam Wang's histogram is almost down to one bar today
http://election.princeton.edu/wp-content/uploads/autographics/EV_histogram_today.png
October 20, 2008 6:29 PM | Reply | Permalink
I don't believe this for a sec. CNN said the race is tightening and that's what matters.
October 20, 2008 4:51 PM | Reply | Permalink
Coz CNN knows best
October 20, 2008 4:53 PM | Reply | Permalink
I heard that crap too on the radio this morning.
"Tightening" my ass.
October 20, 2008 5:18 PM | Reply | Permalink
Ok. I guess I'll let you live when this is over after all, Eric.
;)
October 20, 2008 4:52 PM | Reply | Permalink
THIS
October 20, 2008 5:01 PM | Reply | Permalink
IS
October 20, 2008 5:07 PM | Reply | Permalink
IS
October 20, 2008 5:02 PM | Reply | Permalink
EEXCELLENT
October 20, 2008 5:07 PM | Reply | Permalink
FOR
October 20, 2008 5:10 PM | Reply | Permalink
Worst case scenario:
Obama looses VA, NC, IN, CO, NV, MO, OH, FL.
Obama still wins- by turning NM, IA blue, where he leads by double digits.
In other word, even if McCain wins VA, NC, IN, CO, NV, MO, OH, FL he still needs one more state.
That's the reality not always visible in national numbers.
October 20, 2008 5:24 PM | Reply | Permalink
Oops, sorry to break the wave. An innocent mistake.
October 20, 2008 5:27 PM | Reply | Permalink
NM and IA alone (plus Kerry's states) won't give him 270, will they?
October 20, 2008 5:33 PM | Reply | Permalink
Sorry you're right. Miscalculation.
Obama must win one of these states:
VA, NC, IN, CO, NV, MO, OH, FL
McCain should win all of these states.
I think McCain will win OH, NC, IN and MO. BO will win VA and CO.
FL as always you never know.
October 20, 2008 5:46 PM | Reply | Permalink
I also saw your miscalculation and pointed out at the bottom of this thread.
October 20, 2008 5:50 PM | Reply | Permalink
No. IN maybe. OH, NC and MO, no.
October 20, 2008 5:52 PM | Reply | Permalink
NEWS
October 20, 2008 5:11 PM | Reply | Permalink
FOR
October 20, 2008 5:12 PM | Reply | Permalink
MCCAIN!!!
October 20, 2008 5:17 PM | Reply | Permalink
AND HIS LITTLE DOG PUDDLES!!1!!!
October 20, 2008 6:18 PM | Reply | Permalink
Of all of the polls listed by RCP for Obama in Virginia, Obama has not been under 50% since a poll conducted on 9/29 - 10/1. He currently leads in the state by an 8 point margin.
It is obvious that McCain's internals are dismall in the state since his strategy consists of getting the rest of the state outside of the DC area to vote for him in a show of southern, white solidarity.
Obama hasn't trailed in any Colorado polls since 9/14 and hasn't trailed in the polls since August 24.
15 days!
October 20, 2008 5:03 PM | Reply | Permalink
IS
October 20, 2008 5:03 PM | Reply | Permalink
Hopefully you all can answer this for me. I am in CA, and am working at a polling place that is scheduled to close at 8 PM. Could Obama win without CA, or if he wins, I think they would call right at 8PM? If so, I am cutting back on the hours as I cannot be with that group, I (hopefully) will be too gleeful in non-gleeful territory.
October 20, 2008 5:05 PM | Reply | Permalink
It's EXTREMELY unlikely that he could technically win before the polls close in California. However, if he were to sweep some of the battlegrounds, like VA, NC &/or IN, then an Obama victory becomes pretty much a sure thing. Having said that, I think the networks would not call it until all polls have closed across the country. Or at least, I'd like to think that.
October 20, 2008 5:09 PM | Reply | Permalink
They won't call until the polls close--there was the Carter-Reagan debacle that stopped this.
They might call at 11:01 PM, though.
October 20, 2008 5:16 PM | Reply | Permalink
And after 2000's fun in Florida, they'll probably be pretty cautious on the state calls too.
October 20, 2008 5:22 PM | Reply | Permalink
Not true. Most projections have Obama at around 350 EV, but he's currently leading in enough states to give him 364. CA+OR+WA+NV+HI=82, which leaves 282 outside the western US. Therefore, it's very possible that he could go over 270 EV before 8pm Pacific time. This assumes, though, that some of the bigger eastern states aren't that close and are all called by that time.
October 20, 2008 5:25 PM | Reply | Permalink
The don't call races before polls close any longer. They used to. But now they wait till all the polls are closed.
October 20, 2008 5:09 PM | Reply | Permalink
Thanks everyone :)
October 20, 2008 5:12 PM | Reply | Permalink
If Obama takes the eastern seaboard with the exception of SC and Georgia, sweps the Great lakes except for Indiana and Missouri and takes New Mexico and Colorado that would give him 271 electoral votes so the west coast would not matter.
Check out this url:
http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2008/05/19/politics/main4107550.shtml
October 20, 2008 5:15 PM | Reply | Permalink
I like that map with the numbers for each state, thanks so much.
October 20, 2008 5:19 PM | Reply | Permalink
We'll know the Victory by 7:00 pm ET, as soon as VA closes. Every hour, there will be a NEW state in our column. It does not matter whether they call it or not, we will be already celebrating. That does not mean you can leave the poll, Amelie, because we don't win without CA. We will be waiting for you for the Round 2 party.
October 20, 2008 5:24 PM | Reply | Permalink
They don't announce when polls are still open elsewhere in the country.
October 20, 2008 7:00 PM | Reply | Permalink
We Californians (and the rest of the West Coast aren't the last ones to close. Alaska closes an hour after us, and Hawaii closes either an hour or two after--can't remember if they're on DST or not.
October 20, 2008 5:30 PM | Reply | Permalink
I thought someone got it right on Meet the Press, stating there will be a number of Republicans that say they are voting for McCain but will vote Obama. We all know it will work the other way around, but it sounds like the Palin debacle has really shaken some intelligent members of their party.
October 20, 2008 5:38 PM | Reply | Permalink
I wish the election were tomorrow. THe next two weeks are going to be brutal.
Oh, and The Tool tells me that Giuliani and Huckabee are bringing up Obama's drug use.
So: Ayers, and pallin' around with terrorists. Socialism. Drug addict. Building up to a robo call of Wright "God damn America!"
Although, can they use his voice without his permission? Even if it's from YouTube video?
October 20, 2008 5:08 PM | Reply | Permalink
It's like my rabbit when it's feeding time. He can't stand still. He'll get into his cage. Jump out. Jump into your lap. Jump back into the cage. Grab the binder clip that holds his bag shut and toss it across the room. Try to stick his face into the food bag while you're filling the bowl.
Anticipation can be a bitch.
October 20, 2008 5:29 PM | Reply | Permalink
That's me: a crazed rabbit at feeding time. Perfect imagery.
Wait. That's what you meant, right? Or are you equating the McCain campaign with crazed irrational rabbits?
I sorta like that imagery, too.
October 20, 2008 5:34 PM | Reply | Permalink
Unless the rabbit goes into a fit (running up and down halls, jumping and changing direction in mid-air, bouncing (literally) off walls, and deciding that the newspaper in the floor is something to be destroyed right then and there), they are much more predictable than the McCain campaign.
October 20, 2008 5:44 PM | Reply | Permalink
Rabbit owners for Obama! Lagamorph solidarity! :-)
October 20, 2008 6:22 PM | Reply | Permalink
NEWS
October 20, 2008 5:08 PM | Reply | Permalink
Don't sleep on IN. IL is right next door and they know Obama isn't a terrorist or a secret muslim or any of the other smears. So to convince IN McCain is going have to come up with a policy.
McCain needs a smear a day strategy. A smear that works in 3 different regions of the country. He just doesn't have a message.
October 20, 2008 5:10 PM | Reply | Permalink
Chris Bowers is correct, but who needs to be persuaded?
Just go to http://www.270towin.com/ and see for yourself. Color the states however you want, see the EV totals.
I'm not affiliated with this site, I just think it's fun.
October 20, 2008 5:13 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yes, this is what I use. It's great. You can try all different variations.
October 20, 2008 5:51 PM | Reply | Permalink
Virginia (close at 7 PM Eastern) will be the first canary in the coal mine. If it is Virginia and North Carolina then we can all switch over to Real Housewives of Atlanta by 10.
October 20, 2008 5:16 PM | Reply | Permalink
I think it's going to be an early night. When polls close in the West, we'll already have our answer. :)
October 20, 2008 5:19 PM | Reply | Permalink
That's the curse of living on the west coast.
October 20, 2008 5:21 PM | Reply | Permalink
Early night, my ass. If this thing starts to roll the way I think it's gonna roll, there will be plenty of people calling in to work just after sunrise to take the 5th off and THEN going to sleep! I already know two people who have told me, point blank, that after 2004, they owe themselves an election night victory party and they are gonna ice the champagne in the bathtub!
October 20, 2008 5:42 PM | Reply | Permalink
But they won't call those states from what I understand above, is that true?
October 20, 2008 5:20 PM | Reply | Permalink
They aren't supposed to, Amelie. That was something that came out of the 2000 election.
I've noticed they aren't that good about sticking to it - but they mostly call states and then start hinting heavily, as I recall. And since I started sobbing uncontrollably about 9 PM CST in '04,(and didn't stop until the following Friday afternoon except to sleep and I'm not kidding - cried myself asleep, woke up crying for 3 solid days) I'm not really sure how they were handling it.
October 20, 2008 5:24 PM | Reply | Permalink
Thanks Tena, and I can totally relate, I feel your pain about that year, and frankly, 2000 almost destroyed me.
October 20, 2008 5:26 PM | Reply | Permalink
Cosign. The only thing that pulled me out of that horrifying funk was routine visits to this here soul-saving site. I haven't felt this optimistic about our federal government since meeting a Peace Corps volunteer on my 11th birthday.
October 20, 2008 5:33 PM | Reply | Permalink
I think they can call the individual states--in other words, I don't think, for instance, that they're going to wait until 11 PM to call Connecticut.
What they won't do is call the election for either until all polls are closed.
(Well, "all" meaning those polls in the lower 48. Screw Alaska and Hawaii).
October 20, 2008 5:25 PM | Reply | Permalink
I almost think those 2 states ought to vote the day before. Sometimes I feel like the West is neglected by big news as they're mostly based on the East Coast. I can only imagine what it feels like in Hawaii!
October 20, 2008 5:35 PM | Reply | Permalink
That's what I'm thinking.
thanks.
October 20, 2008 5:43 PM | Reply | Permalink
The networks all have different rules for when they are willing to call a race, but they all want to be the first to do so without being wrong. So they are under contradictory pressures there. However, if a race is fairly obviously going to one person, based on whatever actual votes are available and all exit polling indicates that the margin is going to be pretty clearly with one or another candidate, then most likely they will call the race. NC, for example, probably will not be called until late that night just because it seems to be pretty close. NY on the other hand will probably be called pretty early simply because the margin in polling is pretty big. If early vote totals seem to be in line with that, then they will call NY.
October 20, 2008 5:28 PM | Reply | Permalink
Kentucky's a minor canary. The polls close at 6 PM, and if McConnell goes down, it could be quite an enjoyable evening.
October 20, 2008 5:22 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'll drink to that.
October 20, 2008 5:33 PM | Reply | Permalink
The normal act of desperation on election day for the west coast is whoever is behind on the official counts being released from the east coast will bombard the radio and TV stations urging people to get out and vote. Sometimes with phone numbers to call if you need a ride to your polling station.
October 20, 2008 5:26 PM | Reply | Permalink
I think SurveyUSA is getting played. They still have McCain getting 11% of the African-American vote. It's just not happening. It's not.
October 20, 2008 5:21 PM | Reply | Permalink
Indeed. Maybe they mean 11 percent of the African American Republican vote.
October 20, 2008 5:26 PM | Reply | Permalink
An interesting bit from Rasmussen's poll today
"Still, from a broader perspective, the race remains very stable. Obama’s support has ranged from 50% to 52% every day for twenty-five straight days while McCain’s total has stayed between 44% and 46%"
I think that 52% Obama, 46% McCain and 1% each for the Barr/Nader is pretty close to what the election will look like unless something major shifts.
October 20, 2008 5:23 PM | Reply | Permalink
I think that's a pretty good assessment, though I still think the margin will be greater when we wake up on the 5th.
But I'll take a win no matter how we get there -
October 20, 2008 5:26 PM | Reply | Permalink
The wildcard is the newly registered voters. Traditionally they vote at a much lower rate, but if we've learned anything from this election it's that the old patterns don't necessarily apply. They voted in HUGE numbers in the primaries.
Regardless of the popular vote totals, McCain's electoral math is pretty grim. He not only has to win all the toss-ups AND all the "lean Obama" states, he has to take almost all of the Bush states that are now solid blue (which is the point of Eric's post).
October 20, 2008 5:43 PM | Reply | Permalink
We waited in line for an hour in early voting in the University of New Mexico student center on Saturday. Anticipation's high. And who's getting these young people rowed up?
October 20, 2008 5:49 PM | Reply | Permalink
my ballot came. :) I had it sent to an office so it stood a chance of getting here and it came! I'm going to go get it tomorrow and mark it and overnight it back via FedEx.
October 20, 2008 5:52 PM | Reply | Permalink
sweet. Looks like I'll be sending that $15 to Obama.
October 20, 2008 6:08 PM | Reply | Permalink
This is great news. I was phone banking into Virginia on Saturday -- we were calling very rural areas of Southwest Virginia and even calling Republican leaners as well as independents and Democrats. Perhaps not surprisingly, I got a lot more McShame than Obama supporters. I took heart from my assumption -- though no one at the phone bank knew enough to provide any hard information -- that the state had already been so thoroughly called and canvassed by the Obama campaign that the only place left to call was what would normally be McShame turf. Still, it was a little unsettling to talk to a lot of McShame backers and these poll results are exactly the reassurance I needed.
October 20, 2008 5:27 PM | Reply | Permalink
I was phone banking in Maryland as well. I agree with your assessment. The solid VA areas have been so thoroughly called now that they are down to the "bottom of the barrel."
In many instances I could barely understand the people I was calling (and I'm pretty good with accents.) Other times I was chastised for calling on the "day of rest." I'm pretty sure these aren't likely Obama voters.
During the training they actually explained that the phone banking identifies possible voters for canvassing. That would explain my much better reception when I went canvassing a few weeks ago.
By the way, VA canvassing is going extremely well. Over 1,000 volunteers (just from Maryland) last weekend alone. They were sending people way down to Richmond (from Maryland!) so that means they have covered the Northern (fake) VA area pretty well already.
October 20, 2008 5:56 PM | Reply | Permalink
That's great, Ned. My daughter and I are going to go canvassing this weekend, though I may see if we can do it someplace closer than Richmond.
October 20, 2008 6:05 PM | Reply | Permalink
Hewson Gasbag Threat Level is Orange
The Office of Election Central Lucidity has set the Hewson Gasbag Threat Level at Orange. Unintelligence data indicates increased gasbag activity in related portions of the world wide web.
All TPM Citizens are encouraged to say nothing, post nothing, and in general ignore the odiferous but ultimately harmless gasbag emissions. This has proven to be the most effective deterrent.
October 20, 2008 5:30 PM | Reply | Permalink
Well apparently the person in question is totally psycho. He also went over to FirstDraft looking for me and made such an ass of himself that Athenae banned his ass. She emailed me.
I finally went to Hewson's blog last week and left him a comment asking him to stop spamming the threads here - he had posted 3 whole blog posts on one thread by the time I finally did it.
No threats or anything= just stop taking bandwidth - we don't have that much! LOL
October 20, 2008 5:48 PM | Reply | Permalink
I wouldn't bet my paycheck on the polls in this election. To those who still remember, all I have to same is Hiedi Bowl and you'll see my point.
October 20, 2008 5:30 PM | Reply | Permalink
ooopps!
Same = say
October 20, 2008 5:31 PM | Reply | Permalink
Kash,
First, you are doing the wrong math. With those states, McCain will have 274. Maybe, you were looking at 2000 map.
Second, I am looking at 354-385. In the worst case scenario, we will have 304-234.
Third, if McCain were to win VA, he would win the election, and I'd never show up here.
October 20, 2008 5:43 PM | Reply | Permalink
Correction:
Supposed to be "386-152," instead of "354-385"
October 20, 2008 5:47 PM | Reply | Permalink
Sorry You're Right. I was alotting 22 EVs to IA/NM rather than 12. That messed it up.
October 20, 2008 5:49 PM | Reply | Permalink
Even if Obama loses NV, CO, FL, NC, OH, IN, NH, ND, MT, and WV....
if he wins PA, NM, and VA, he WINS.....273-265. To me, this is the WORST case scenario.
October 20, 2008 5:44 PM | Reply | Permalink
Me too! :)
October 20, 2008 5:50 PM | Reply | Permalink
Its' a winner but that's cutting it close.
October 20, 2008 5:55 PM | Reply | Permalink
If I remember correctly wasn't the term "real Virginia" used by George Allen before his macaca moment?
If you listen closely you can faintly hear the racist code that McCain is trying to send to "great Americans" everywhere.
October 20, 2008 5:56 PM | Reply | Permalink
It was "Welcome to America and the real world of Virginia", where earlier he had said his opponent never visits.
October 20, 2008 6:05 PM | Reply | Permalink
barack and joe just got another vote in virginia. :)
my son and i just returned home from voting absentee in person.
October 20, 2008 6:17 PM | Reply | Permalink
Particularly after the last couple of presidential elections, I can understand why everyone keeps checking poll results, pulling out pocket calculators, and re-checking the electoral count math. But.....though the Obama team is clearly working its heart out on the ground, and we'll get what we get from this amazing effort, I am really hoping the Obama-Biden ticket wins by a margin a fair bit larger than 6%. Granted, a win will be a win, and I'd take one of any form over the alternative, but Obama's going to have a much easier time governing in the way he has suggested if there is a strong late surge of independents and disaffected Republicans toward Obama-Biden.
I'm not an optimist by nature, but I think the Powell endorsement is going to prove out to be werful than many people think
October 20, 2008 6:20 PM | Reply | Permalink
Redo...
I am not an optimist by nature, but I think the Powell endorsement is going to prove to be more helpful to Obama than many seem to think.
October 20, 2008 6:23 PM | Reply | Permalink
There are record breaking turn outs on the first day of voting in Texas. Huge Numbers In Arkansas, in Georgia, in New Mexico, Colorado, Nevada .....
http://news.google.com/news?hl=en&q=early+voting+records&um=1&ie=UTF-8&sa=X&oi=news_group&resnum=1&ct=title
October 21, 2008 2:53 AM | Reply | Permalink
McCain visited Columbia Mo. today and was met by a crowd of 15 people.
October 21, 2008 2:55 AM | Reply | Permalink