« New Dole Attack Ad: Hagan Went To A Party Hosted By Atheists! | Home | Is GOP Senator Gordon Smith Doomed? Early Voting Numbers Suggest It's Possible »

TPM Track Composite: Obama's Lead Expands Again

Here's our daily composite of the six major national tracking polls. Barack Obama lead is steadily ticking back up again, suggesting that the recent period in which the race was starting to tighten may be over:

Gallup: Obama 52%, McCain 43%, with a ±2% margin of error, compared to a 51%-44% lead from yesterday.

Rasmussen: Obama 51%, McCain 47%, with a ±2% margin of error, compared to a 51%-46% Obama lead from yesterday.

ABC/Washington Post: Obama 53%, McCain 44%, with a ±2.5% margin of error, compared to a 52%-44% Obama lead from yesterday.

Hotline/Diageo: Obama 48%, McCain 41%, with a ±3.3% margin of error, compared to a 48%-42% Obama lead from yesterday.

Research 2000: Obama 51%, McCain 45%, with a ±3% margin of error, compared to a 50%-45% Obama lead yesterday.

Zogby: Obama 50%, McCain 43%, with a ±2.9% margin of error, unchanged from yesterday.

Adding these polls together and weighting them by the square roots of their sample sizes, Obama is ahead 51.0%-44.1%, a lead of 6.9 points, compared to the 50.5%-44.2% Obama lead from yesterday. Obama's lead also increased in yesterday's Composite.


127 Comments

| Leave a comment
user-pic

THIS

user-pic

Mich, just saw your note on a previous thread. Thanks so much for the recommendation.

user-pic

McCain and Palin have given us no details as to how they are going to put this country back on the right track. All I hear is country first, and Barack knows this person and Barack that... This is getting so tired, and for all of you morons that vote for McCain/Palin, I hope you've enjoyed the last 6 years, because we're going to get more of the same if they win; in competency, stay the course even though I'm going the wrong way, Brownie you're sure doing a heck of a job, birthday cake on the strip (BushMcCain) while a natural disaster is occurring, a VP that doesn't know their role Palin is just like Cheney in that way, rich get richer, poor get homeless, penniless, no healthcare, no jobs (they all go overseas, rising food costs, a bad education system, and maybe even another war.)

Get the booze ready...please and I don’t drink, bring me some tissue, cause here comes more sh!t rolling down hill if McCain/Palin win.

user-pic

No prob. Short version of my post in response to you back there (went out to dinner, can you believe leading a semi-normal life this weekend?!) I went and read it after a colleague mentioned it. It's one of the best books I've read this year!

user-pic

IS

user-pic

NEWS

user-pic

OF THE EXCELLENT VARIETY

user-pic

FOR

user-pic

HOWARD DEAN!!!!!!!

user-pic

:)

user-pic

BYAHHHHHHHHHHH!!!

user-pic

BYAHHHHHHHHHHH!!!

user-pic

Wow, Lawrence Eagleburger, Josh has the video up. OMG !! They must have real dirt on this guy, I cannot believe it.

user-pic

My same thought!

user-pic

What did I miss? What did I miss?

user-pic

Go to front page, watch Fox video.

user-pic

I honestly could not finish watching it. yech!

user-pic

Here's one you'll like better. McCain comes to Jesus.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=623u3otwK78

user-pic

wow! the "look"

Ok, seems like he's saying she's a uniter. But not a leader.

I heard about this. Thanks!

user-pic

Holy cow! That's quite a tell there, for a gambler.

user-pic

A Republican admitting a mistake???

Oh my, I was fully expecting him to claim he never said any such thing about Palin! I mean, if Ted Stevens can tell the press he was found innocent and Palin can tell everyone she was cleared of any wrongdoing, then why can't Eagleburger (by the way, a very ironic name for a Republican!!!) claim he never said this.....even though he's on tape as saying it.

user-pic

Actually, I was struck that Eagleburger was quick to lead off by admitting that he was quoted accurately? At least it appears the Republicans are learning from their mistakes. Bachmann tried to claim that she was misquoted and simply ended up making herself look even more ridiculous when the reporters re-broadcast the exchange with Matthews to show that she was quoted accurately. In other words, they have finally caught on to the existence of video-tape. Real progress, that.

user-pic

Da, Comrade - you ain't kidding.

Are we in Moscow? He all but checked himself into a mental hospital in that video.

I would loooooove to know what they have on him - like you said, Amelie, it must be very good.

user-pic

Morons. If they just ignored him, Eagleburger would have been just one more rusty GOP figure from the past, a news items for 15 minutes. Now by this truly amazing "apology" they just made sure his earlier version is played and replayed.

Don't want to take away any credit from Obama, first black candidate with the name BHO always had to run an impeccable campaign even to have a remote chance of winning the presidency, but he couldn't have asked for a more moronic bunch of bastards to run against.

user-pic

After he finished, he headed down to the Chestnut Tree Cafe for a few Victory gins spiked with a little of that plusgood clove flavoring.

user-pic

Actually.. mental hospital was for ones who didn't confess. The ones who confessed were either shot (old times), or broken and left alone (my times).

This.. just weird.

user-pic

Oh, God. I've never, ever seen a Republican grovel like that.

With the possible exception of McCain hugging Bush in 2004.

user-pic

Wow, just sad. All I want when I reach his age is to have my dignity. That's all. And he ain't got it.

user-pic

GREAT

user-pic

Eric you just have saved the best for last, haven't you?

;)

user-pic

I literally exhaled when I saw this. This should be enough of a lead to carry Obama comfortably through the weekend.

I sincerely doubt most people won't have their minds made up by Monday morning.

user-pic

Unless either Biden puts his foot in his mouth, Bin Laden releases a new video OR both!

user-pic
user-pic

Shocking the McCain camp didn't jump all over that, even though it came from The Onion! Then again, they're being careful these days because more than once they used sources like Stephen Colbert for their talking points...before they were told Colbert was PRETENDING to be a conservative!

user-pic
"Forty-two percent of citizens polled said that, at this point, a 'just plain bad' president would also be good enough."

That would certainly be an improvement on the past 8 years!


user-pic
"I'm an elitist, I hate Israel, and I want to lose the war in Iraq," Obama concluded, and then, seemingly unaware of the magnitude of his blunder, smiled, gave a thumbs-up to the stunned crowd, and urged his supporters to get out and vote on Nov. 4.

hilarious.

user-pic

Or if Biden puts his foot in Bin Laden's mouth, and THAT comes out on video.

user-pic

Or Biden puts his foot in bin Laden's mouth!

[Judy Tenuta]It could happen!![/Judy Tenuta]

user-pic

We're so deranged...and I dig that!

user-pic

Yeeeeeeehhhaaaaaaawww!!!

user-pic

Two key points here:

1) All of the trackers except one have Obama above 50 percent.

2) A key statistic from the WaPo poll... the "Movable" voters who might change their mind are now down to 8 percent. That means that even if ALL the movable swung to McCain Obama would seill be ahead by one point.

user-pic

HAHAHA - Rick Davis just told the press that the polls in Iowa are dead-even and they now fully expect McCain to win that state!

Meanwhile, back in reality land...

http://firstread.msnbc.msn.com/archive/2008/10/31/1622051.aspx?GT1=43001

user-pic

McMentum!


user-pic

Hey! Another dog on the board!

Sniff, sniff!

user-pic

4 more days, and the haters will be removed from power!!!

I am sick of the repubs lies, these people make me sick...

I just making my last donation today

Obama/Biden 08

user-pic

Can you imagine eating crow like that. Eagleburger sounds afraid for his career or the future of his children. Hell, he sounds just like John McCain on those old North Vietnamese tapes when he had been tortured into a public confession. We need to look at the tape for secret hand signals.

user-pic

They have some real shit on this guy for him to stoop to that level. Wow.

user-pic

He rubbed his eye - when he was about to tell his lie.

user-pic

What does that body language mean, Thera?

user-pic

From what I've read, lots of blinking and presumably eye rubbling are symptomatic of lying, because when a person lies, unless they are a sociopath, the heart rate goes up and the eyes become dry. The blinking is an involuntary response.

Mind you, those symptoms can happen around mere nervousness but since Eagleburger is no media neophyte, it's more likely that he's lying.

user-pic

I just noticed the gesture. Probably because I'm used to noticing that sort of thing. And I wondered about it. My guess would be sort of a disclaimer. Kind of like... well, I can't believe I'm going to say this... but...

user-pic

Thanks Agrippina and Thera. I was just so shocked by this man's total discomfort at what he was saying that I felt almost sorry for him -- until he referred to Obama as a "flim-flam" man.

user-pic

Yes, that was despicable!

user-pic

Seems like the Nodes left town. And "overcapacity" is taking their place.

user-pic

How did this comment end up here? Sneaky nodes!

user-pic

Good point.

Taking back what he said in the beginning, must be extremely discomfiting, whether he believes the new version or not.

user-pic

Just having to go on the tv and humiliate himself.

user-pic

Wow. I didn't notice that - I noticed his voice shook the minute he started lying -

user-pic

Poor stupid Eagleburger. He was backpedaling so hard and fast it made me wonder if someone was holding wife hostage or somthing.

user-pic

So when will the "tightening" meme be officially pronounced dead by the media?

user-pic

Nov 5th

user-pic

THIS IS EXCELLENT NEWS . . . FOR HUMANITY!!!

user-pic

Word.
Co-sign!

user-pic

I totally agree. I also think that I cannot wait until this election is over and we won't have any more of this EXCELLENT NEWS stuff.

(no flames needed, I know that I've been doing it too...)

user-pic

As my Mom always said:

"The most important organ when choosing a leader isn't the one between their LEGS - it's the one between their EARS!"

user-pic

The internals of the R2K poll this morning indicated a big bump for Obama after his Wed half hour fireside chat with the nation. As we carry this through the weekend, we'll pick up the people who like to vote for a winner.

Today I went to the bank. Wearing my Obama button and t-shirt. Black guy in front of me gave me a huge smile! We had a lovely chat. He's worried, but had just called his wife to tell her that in my little city for every mcShame sign there were 5 for Obama. That impressed him as we're pretty white where I live. Then the bank ladies saw my t-shirt and button - big thumbs up! And on the way out another black man gave me a big smile. I shook his hand and said: "There's a new day coming."

The energy and the excitement is palpable on the street! And I tell you, the gratitude and disbelief (in a certain way) on the faces of black people - seeing that yes, whites have Obama signs and Obama shirts and a feeling of hope and unity.... well, it was a wonderful feeling!

I can't wait to knock on doors Sat and Sun! Supporters only this weekend!!! What a party it's gonna be - just being out and feeling the energy and excitement in the neighborhoods!

user-pic

Good on you TheraP!

Me, on Saturday afternoon I'm going to Obama's local Election Day Designated Challenger Training! :)

user-pic

Nice work, thanks!

user-pic

Co-sign!

user-pic

Our ground game is so wide and so deep! And the other side's is so lacking.... They lack ethics. They lack a message. They lack a ground game. And there's no sense of solidarity between them. They're an angry, frustrated bunch.

user-pic

You're a lovely person, Thera.

user-pic

:).. ♪♪ ♪

user-pic

Oooo - I don't like that message - that's scary enough for Halloween: TPM is over capacity -

user-pic

Oooo - I don't like that message - that's scary enough for Halloween: TPM is over capacity - and then unlike the other messages, this one means it really didn't post.

this really is scaring me - Monday and Tuesday will be nightmares if it's over capacity now.

user-pic

I think it's just another dummy message. I did the old backspace/reload thing and it still shows up.

user-pic

I did that too - 3 times. It did not show up.


user-pic

That's awesome, TheraP. I'm in one of the bluest of blue areas (Oakland, CA) so we take for granted that Obama signs outnumber McCain probably 100 to 1. But I still feel the same thing, that something amazing is days away. And really, though I suppose we're not supposed to be allowed to say it, I get an extra jolt of electricity at the idea of voting for the first black president. No, not any candidate that might fit the bill, but one as intelligent and reasoned and politically skilled and calm and rational and inspiring as Barack Obama.

I resisted voting early because CA is safe, and I really want to cast my vote on Nov. 4. Assuming the wait doesn't kill me.

user-pic

It's tough in a battle ground state sometimes. But this time is sweeter than anything I've ever experienced. The yearning. The commitment to vote. The anxiety of some. And the utter disbelief as I said before in some black people - as if they simply cannot believe their own eyes and ears. I almost felt like weeping there in the bank.

I love my fellow Americans. Especially those of us who have suffered so much in a country that has lost its way so terribly. I think we're going to be hugging strangers next week!

user-pic

Sounds like Obama's 30 minute ad buy payed off. That and his media blitz surrounding it.

user-pic
Republican vice presidential candidate Sarah Palin says in a new fundraising plea that the GOP needs to raise $5 million in the next 72 hours to compete with the GOTV efforts of Democrats.

OKAY!
NOW COMES HER FIRST BIG TEST ON THE NATIONAL SCENE !!!

Now let's see what's she's made of! Besides moose shit!

user-pic

I'll not be surprised if they "claim" they raised five mil in 24 hours. Another stunt. No big deal.

user-pic

Wait - you forgot to add the link where I can donate.

user-pic
user-pic

John McCain, many on TPM would seek to disparage you. I have come to praise you. THANK YOU for running the worst campaign I have ever seen. Thanks for picking Barbie as your running mate. Thank you for spending so much time and money in PA.

From the bottom of my heart, thank you, sir.

user-pic

Mike, you are too funny.

user-pic

Thank you Amelie my dear! Now can you tell me where my trick or treaters are? It's already dark here!

user-pic

The graph of the track composite is very helpful. Let's keep it. :)

user-pic

Just saw the Eagleburger video.

Someone read him the riot act. Otherwise he wouldn't be going into so many particulars on what he said was wrong and how much more qualified Palin than what he said before.

It would have been more tolerable if he went into depth as to why the sudden change, but he wasn't interested in a through cleaning, just a spray-n-wipe job to get it over with quick.

user-pic

I think we've seen the end of McCain's last Dead Cat Bounce of the election.


John

user-pic

Too bad about Studs Terkel passing away today. He would have loved to see Obama win Tuesday.

user-pic

I was lucky to talk to Studs in early 2002, just before the war. He knew what was up. Solid, and a great guy.

Best thing about him was as an interviewer he just talked to people. He didn't badger them, or even interview them. He just had conversations.

user-pic

Aww shit. Studs is gone? Oh how he would have loved to be here for 11/4. Love that guy.

RIP Studs.

user-pic

Terkel and his work were the basis of an entire coursework in my graduate class. Sad.

user-pic

I had the same kind of class, I think it was called "working-class lit" or some such thing.

Greatly missed.

user-pic

I bet you loved it, Kash. Wasn't it great to work with his material? I did a paper around his book 'Working' in my freshman year, and have loved the guy ever since. I'll really miss him.

user-pic

OT -

Former Reagan adviser endorses Obama

(CNN) — Former Reagan chief of staff Ken Duberstein told CNN's Fareed Zakaria this week he intends to vote for Democrat Barack Obama on Tuesday.

Duberstein said he was influenced by another prominent Reagan official - Colin Powell - in his decision.

"Well let's put it this way - I think Colin Powell's decision is in fact the good housekeeping seal of approval on Barack Obama."

user-pic

Think progress has a clip of Fox News in which Cavutto reaps apart McCain on the economy. He says to McCain the he has "no convictions" on the economy. Definitely they decided to through the poor old man down the window. The eating each other alive has started.

user-pic

I saw the video too. Couldn't help but think how the entire wingnut flank would fall like a ton of bricks on McLame on the night of Nov 4.

They're going to declare McLame a fake republican and Palin a martyr.

user-pic

"Ex-cellent!" (say it like Monty Burns) :-)

Palin would not have a prayer (hah!) if she runs in 2012 since her negatives are so high and many in her own party can't stand her. She appeals to the foaming-at-the-mouth faithful.

user-pic

"Ex-cellent!" (say it like Monty Burns) :-)

Palin would not have a prayer (hah!) if she runs in 2012 since her negatives are so high and many in her own party can't stand her. She appeals to the foaming-at-the-mouth faithful.

user-pic

The circular firing squad is already forming.

user-pic

Defenestration FTW!

(One can never pass up the opportunity to use such a marvelous word.)

user-pic

Boehner has a problem with reality when he says Obama has partisans at the DOJ. That would only be true if they met Monica Goodling's litmus test for employment. And since loyalty to Bu$h was high on the list, its' extremely doubtful any made it past the bitch.

user-pic
Boehner has a problem with reality

Dude, you could stopped right there.


user-pic
user-pic

I like it better when Chief Wiggum sings that song.

user-pic

The Obama infomercial closed the deal.

user-pic

The Obama infomercial closed the deal.

I also got the "over capacity" error message.

user-pic

I miss the error message:

There no nodes to service your request.

Kinda has an obscene ring to it.

user-pic

thats the one thing that irks me about this site the servers cant handle the traffic. Come next week Tuesday we better plan to go over at KOS because TPM wont be able to handle traffic that night.

user-pic

McCain's campaign is placing their faith in the Bradly Affect. Thats all they have right now.

user-pic

Nah... I bet tomorrow Sarah will say she has been watching all episodes of the West Wing so she is not qualified.

user-pic

The next 100 hours will be very interesting. I hope I can live through them. This track composite is doing wonders for my nerves. Thanks John and Sara for making this all possible.

user-pic

Summary of the last week:

Obama's lead soars by 0.1%!!!

Oh, no...now it's plummeted by 0.1%.

Wait...now it's jumped by 0.1%.

No...it dove by 0.1%.

Yay...it's expanded by 0.1%.

Arghh...it sunk 0.1%

Are you running out of superlative verbs yet, Eric? Not to worry. You only need three more.

user-pic

Oooo - I don't like that message - that's scary enough for Halloween: TPM is over capacity - and then unlike the other messages, this one means it really didn't post.

this really is scaring me - Monday and Tuesday will be nightmarish if it's over capacity now.

user-pic

Comic Relief from a week ago
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/larry-david/waiting-for-nov-4th_b_137029.html
"I can't take much more of this. Two weeks to go, and I'm at the end of my rope. I can't work. I can eat, but mostly standing up. I'm anxious all the time and taking it out on my ex-wife, which, ironically, I'm finding enjoyable. This is like waiting for the results of a biopsy. Actually, it's worse. Biopsies only take a few days, maybe a week at the most, and if the biopsy comes back positive, there's still a potential cure. With this, there's no cure. The result is final. Like death.

user-pic

Good weather news: Mild, dry weather is expected across most of the country for Election Day:

http://marcambinder.theatlantic.com/archives/2008/10/election_day_weather_update_su.php

user-pic

I love to see that, especially since I'm going to be GOTVing all day.

Looks like it will be a beautiful day in more ways than one!

user-pic

I will be an inside observer at a voting location all day doing voter protection for the Obama Campaign in Columbus. Gotta get there at 5:45 am, and get off at 8:30 pm.
A l-o-n-g day, but well worth it!

user-pic

You will be so moved by your experience. I envy you. I'll be making sure they get to the polls.

user-pic

CNN was forced to move Arizona to "lean" today!

user-pic

AHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA, That is so fucking sweet.

user-pic

I understand that the GOP is going to court to have Arizona removed from the Union.

user-pic

got to say I was getting worried the last few days with the polls looking like they were going towards mcsame so happy that has now stopped

user-pic

got to say I was getting worried the last few days with the polls looking like they were going towards mcsame so happy that has now stopped

user-pic

got to say I was getting worried the last few days with the polls looking like they were going towards mcsame so happy that has now stopped

Leave a comment

Advertise Liberally
Share
Close Social Web Email

"To" Email Address

Your Name

Your Email Address