Here come the concern trolls.

Eric: I request for a thread analyzing the state polls versus national polls.

Frankly, your insight into daily trackers is akin to a third grader. What does the slip mean? Is it reflecting in any state polls? Can you correlate the "slipping" with other polling data?

I'm not trying to bash you, those are serious questions and I'd appreciate some serious answers.

Huge narrative re-taking event this evening.

Kash,

for good analysis on the polls, I use 538. Nate is just perfect for this.

Short summary: of six polls, one shows no change, two are +1, three are -1.

Overall trend: nada

This is the definition of statistical noise, folks. Nothing to see here.

Chuck Todd is still promoting the expectation that the race will tighten slightly for a few days before Tuesday.

Shorter Eric:

+07  =>  +07  Gallup
+05  =>  +03  Rasmussen
+07  =>  +08  ABC-WaPo
+08  =>  +07  Hot-Dog
+07  =>  +06  R2k
+04  =>  +05  Zogby

The race (nationally) is tighter than Eric/TPM are reporting. Not included here is the TIPP tracker or Gallup's other likely voter model (both have Obama up by 3 today). This is a 5-point race nationally. Get out to a swing state and work your tushies off.

OT,

Anybody seen any analysis of Palin's "major energy speech" this morning?

I caught about 2 minutes of it walking out the door to work and all I heard was "Noun, conjunction, Energy, conjunction, Energy Independence, wink, shoutout, Solar Energy, adverb, conjunction, doncha know."

Eric's blind faith in polls reminds me of Fundamentalist reading of Holy Scripture.

It's equally mindless to say that "Obama's Lead Slips" because of these things.

Cripes all, can we please retire the lame-o term "concern troll?" Let me introduce a new term: "Pollyana troll." I.e., those who discount any even remotely negative development for Obama in the presidential campaign, and seem to get insulted on a bloody personal level should anyone express 'concern.' Do I think Obama will win? Yes. Do I worry about a McCain upset? Yes. Does this make me a "troll?"

There is a difference between concern and a predisposition to defeatism. Please Louise.

Robert

Here in Virginia, when it snows, we're not ready for it in the least, and all the schools shut down and the kids get the day off. Hence, schoolchildren in VA watch weather reports of impending snow with great interest and anticipation. Look, there's a 60% chance of snow! One inch, and we're home free! Though those snow days are long past for Old Smitty, I realize that I am watching these poll figures with the same fascination. The bigger point? I don't know if there is one. But I feel like tomorrow's not going to be a drag if the poll numbers will just keep saying what I want them to. Or if it snows.

I'm assuming this poll was taken before the infomercial tonight. Now the focus is all back on Obama, and the renewed widening of the gap of his lead in the polls is sure to follow. The spotlight is entirely on him, and by not mentioning McCain's name once in the ad, he both took the high road AND made sure the buzz stayed on him. Pretty sharp!

I've recently discovered a new website,
http://www.perspctv.com that actually measures buzz alongside potential votes by tracking and then graphing the number of mentions each candidate gets in the blogosphere, under the theory that the more buzz, the more publicity, the more votes. It's fascinating. And Obama, who's spending 150% more than his opponent on advertising, seems to be subscribing to that theory as well.

I do believe it is maybe time to just stop watching the polls (yes -- begs the question: Why am I here...?).

I mean, barring some "great changer" (Bin Laden tape, Biden accidentally slapping a baby instead of kissing it, McCain accidentally telling the truth at a rally and saying "You can't trust him to lead us (yet) because he's a black man", Palin accidentally saying "I'm a maverick and I think Alaska should be an independent country" etc.) the campaigning is really over.

What is not over: We just have to get to the polls, stick out whatever intimidation we find there, demand alternate paper ballots (not "provisional" ones) if things do go wrong at the polls, and offer to drive, walk, or carry any old or young voters we know to the polls.

In short: The candidates have done what they can. It's now all up to us, and we must not fail them now.

Oh yeah: Remember the down-ticket votes. No change will happen if Obama stands against a Congress that can filibuster any propositions of change to a standstill. The Senate Republicans of the 110th Congress obstructed bills and discussion of bills 104 times in the last two years alone. That, by the way, is an obstructionist record.