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TPM Track Composite: Obama's Lead Cut By One Point

Here's our daily composite of the six major national tracking polls. John McCain has chipped away slightly at Barack Obama's lead in today's polls, but Obama is still ahead and remains at over 50% support:

Gallup: Obama 51%, McCain 44%, with a ±2% margin of error, compared to a 53%-43% Obama lead from yesterday.

Rasmussen: Obama 51%, McCain 46%, with a ±2% margin of error, unchanged from yesterday.

ABC/Washington Post: Obama 52%, McCain 45%, with a ±2.5% margin of error, unchanged from yesterday.

Hotline/Diageo: Obama 50%, McCain 42%, with a ±3.3% margin of error, unchanged from yesterday.

Research 2000: Obama 50%, McCain 43%, with a ±3% margin of error, compared to a 50%-42% Obama lead yesterday.

Zogby: Obama 49%, McCain 45%, with a ±2.9% margin of error, compared to a 50%-45% Obama lead from yesterday.

Adding these polls together and weighting them by the square roots of their sample sizes, Obama is ahead 50.6%-44.4%, a lead of 6.2 points, compared to the 51.2%-44.0% Obama lead from yesterday.


62 Comments

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One point sounds like just "statistical noise" to me.

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Probably. Gallup seems to be the biggest reason for the 'swing' and it is still within yesterday's margin of error. Still, the 3 polls that moved did move in one direction.

Can't wait not to care about these polls.

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Yeah. Everything is pretty flat except for Gallup.

Eh, whatever.

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Statistical noise. No biggie.

http://pufferfish.typepad.com/

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Shorter Eric:

+10  =>  +07  Gallup
+05  =>  +05  Rasmussen
+07  =>  +07  ABC-WaPo
+08  =>  +08  Hot-Dog
+08  =>  +07  R2k
+05  =>  +04  Zogby

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Thanks for this jzap. Seen this way it's hardly any movement at all.

Snore. (Not you, jzap)

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Six points is a decent lead six days from the election day. And a 6 point may be probably true at this point.

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How valid are these polls now that early voting means 15-20% of the population is off the table?


This is sorta like the national polls during the primary season after a chunk of the states had already voted.

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Well the lead was at 8.8 on Saturday, peak of the Powell effect. I'm wondering when Barack is going to respond to all the mud being thrown his way?

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Ummm, I believe his best responses have at times been no response. How do you respond to "Are you a pinko?"

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Well Reagan signed legislation that would be labeled socialist under McCain's current definition.

Or, the progressive tax system started with the republican Roosevelt. Just tell the story of the history of the progressive tax.

Or say we would like to reverse the bush tax cuts effectively reinstating the Clinton era numbers that brought us prosperity and a balance budget.

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I just don't think it's hurting enough to respond to. Look at the state polls, esp. FL and OH.

And talking about reversing the Bush tax cuts makes zero sense for two reasons: A) it would be handing McCain an UZI in a knife fight and B) those bush cuts are set to run out by themselves anyway, by 2010 I think? (Someone correct me on the date if I'm wrong).

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A 2.6 point drop in three days? I think its significant. Yes, sometimes no answer is enough. And sometimes no answer is seen as a admission of guilt, ala Kerry's swiftboating.

Perhaps the answer is in tomorrow nights presentation.

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Sigh. There's always one.

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I know. I give. Sometimes people just want to make a point, whatever it might be.

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As has been said many times over, the state polls are the really critical ones to watch for now. Even if the national polls tighten considerably, it's going to take some pretty big movement in the state polls across multiple states to fundamentally change the race.

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Thank you SO! Voice of reason.

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The story here isn' McCain's number - he fluxuates between 41 and 46 in most polls. The real story is actually Obama's average - in the RCP poll of polls it went up to 50.6 today, the highest they've ever had him. He hasn't been under 49 since 10/2. His numbers are as steady as he is.

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I can feel my REFS (rapid-cycling election freakout syndrome) acting up.........

Just donated my last bi-weekly $5 to Obama (I'm embarassed it is to little, but I am unable to do more), and will be phone-banking again tonight.

breathe.....

there, better.

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It's ok.

I just talked to my husband. I trust his judgment and when I started whining about the polls tightening he said - "He's ok. He really is - don't worry about it."

And I feel better.

renegade, you've done everything you can and more. That's all you can do. You've given more money than you should have and a load of your time and effort.

It's ok. He's ahead in more states than he needs. :)

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Tena, I remember you saying your husband had said the same in 1992. And he was right.

I trust him :)

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Here are the latest 10 days. Some shrinkage in Obama's lead the past couple of days (shrinkage, Jerry, shrinkage!), but as others have noted, that's more from McCain gaining than Obama losing ground. Obame is over 50% for the ninth straight day.

Date	Obama	McCain	Difference
10/19	49.9	43.9	6.0
10/20	50.1	43.7	6.4
10/21	50.5	43.1	7.4
10/22	51.3	43.1	8.2
10/23	51.5	43.1	8.4
10/24	51.6	43.1	8.5
10/25	51.6	42.8	8.8
10/26	51.2	43.1	8.1
10/27	51.2	44.0	7.2
10/28	50.6	44.4	6.2

Nate Silver doesn't have today's polls up yet, but in yesterday's roundup, he said he puts more stock in the state polls than the national trackers because as an aggregate the state polls contain so much more data. And through yesterday, according to Nate, the state polls had shown no real sign of tightening.

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I read that too, yesterday, and I loved reading it!


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Also, I'd recommend this entry at pollster.com.

http://www.pollster.com/blogs/abramowitz_tracking_the_tracki.php

Here's the conclusion part (Get this, Eric :P).

What these findings do indicate, however, is that poll-watchers should not pay too much attention to the day to day movements in these polls unless they see all or most of them moving consistently in one direction over a period of time. Similarly, polling organizations should avoid overemphasizing the significance of the day to day movements in their own polls and pay more attention to whether their results are consistent with those of other polls.
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Nate hasn't done his report, but the graphics are up:

Electoral Projection
10/27: Obama 351, McCain 187
10/28: Obama 348, McCain 190

Win %
10/27: Obama 96.7%, McCain 3.3%
10/28: Obama 96.2%, McCain 3.8%

Yep, we're fucked. ;)


John

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I think the key stat there is that despite the fluctuations Obama is ahead of where he was 9 days before +6.2% compared to +6.0%. I don't like the drop from the +8.8%, but looking at that put it in perspective for me.

/also in A^2

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The real story here is not the difference but the sum. The undecided/other has dropped from 6.2 to 5.0 with no net change in the overall margin. The concrete is setting.

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The margin of error isn't very much and I think our hope (those of us voting for Obama) is that those with cell phones have not been counted and they may balance out or overpower the racist vote.

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Chris Bowers at Open Left is alleging that Rasmussen may be purposefully reporting inaccurate poll results that are favorable to McCain and backs it up quantitatively.

http://www.openleft.com/showDiary.do?diaryId=9479

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Tighter polls help Obama right about now. They fire up the base.

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Tighter polls help Obama right about now. They fire up the base.

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Yea I really don't mind tight polls at all, that way we will come out to vote and blow those polls out of the water.

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Yea I really don't mind tight polls at all, that way we will come out to vote and blow those polls out of the water.

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I wonder how these polls change now that the idea is getting out there that McCain is "no longer in control of his campaign", what with senior advisers talking smack, Caribou going solo, etc.

This seems to be the theme on CNN and MSNBC tonight.

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Not exactly where you want things going with a week left.

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Not to mention that this is a reprise of '06, when Foley got busted a week away from the election.

This time it's Stevens.

'06 was a very sweet year to a Democrat.

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And the best thing about 2006, as I remember it, was we actually got MORE than we expected. Virginia and Montana. At the time I was beyond bliss.

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Yeah, yesterday's verdict certainly changed things. And it really gave me hope that the Dems might win big next week.

That said, the Stevens story is no where near as interesting as Foley.

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Not that it matters but the Foley matter hit at the end of august ot 8 weeks out.

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O thanks.

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Rogue Caribou Stampede
-- what a nightmare!

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I love the Republican gloom and doom. Public infighting at this stage of a campaign is murder. A lot of nice Republicans are going to stay home.

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This is true.

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McCain takes a swipe at Ted Stephens, his Freudian way of giving Palin a swipe of her own who supports the convicted senator.

Any statement from Sarah? She said it was a sad day in Alaska when the Ted the verdict was handed down.
What type of day is today now that her supposed future boss has said she's WRONG. Sounds like a disagreement worth looking into.

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The one point drop in the national polls may be for real...
But despite that it seems like Obama is settling in to more consistent leads in Ohio,Florida,and Virgina...

Maybe a little tightening is just what the doctor ordered to fight that ol' complacency bug.....

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Anybody heard of Rep. Steve King?

He's as big a whack job as Bachmann is.


http://thinkprogress.org/2008/10/28/king-obama-dictator/

http://www.auduboncountynews.com/main.asp?SectionID=1&SubSectionID=159&ArticleID=8087&TM=49212.23

King said, "We put a lot of energy and resources into our children to raise them in the American way and in our Christian faith and teach them values based on these. Obama's upbringing involves his father returning to his first wife after Barrack's birth and becoming a polygamist. His step-father was also a polygamist. He eventually wound up living with his grandparents in Hawaii who were strong leftists. He also writes about his fondness for his Uncle Frank who is a Marxist intellectual. His mother went to The Little Red Church on the Hill in Seattle, a self-proclaimed atheist church where it was said, 'They raise red-diaper babies,' babies that were raised to be left wing hard core atheists."

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Haven't heard of him. And I'd bet that over the next 4 years he'll become even more obscure to m.

This shit just gives me the giggles these days.

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I love that -- his grandparents were 'strong leftists.' I guess whoever hired Mrs. Dunham as a VICE PRESIDENT AT THE BANK OF HAWAII was unaware of that. Six days until these people wallow in their own despair -- that makes me so happy!

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Argghhhhhh!!! Be November 4th, NOW! I was watching the South Park where Cartman freezes himself because he can't wait 3 weeks until the Nintendo Wii comes out, and I'm starting to think that sounds like a good idea.

Hell, I'll take a large bottle of Valium and a week off from work...

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If voters understood the ramifications of McCain's health polls would be going the other way.

Check out the case for McCain's medical cover-up at.
http://www.ignorancedestroysdemocracy.com

If you agree, copy and paste the following into an email and share with anyone you can.

subject: McCain's medical cover-up

Repetitive head injuries, as McCain has a history of, may result in neurological and functional deficits that could explain his behavior including: problems with anger management, risk taking, impulsiveness, emotional lability, his decision making style (instinct over reasoned consideration of facts and consequences), impaired judgment and his unfocused, disorganized campaign. PTSD may be a contributing factor as well.
McCain appears to have cognitively declined compared with his presidential run in 2000. It provokes more concern because his risk factors for Alzheimer's disease are high.
There is further cause for unease about McCain's health. Questions abound regarding his selective disclosure of health records: conspicuous absence of brain MRIs or any brain imaging report; conflicting data on the stage of his melanoma; no neurological or cognitive assessments; no psychiatric evaluation in the past eight years and inadequate information prior to that.
More info at:
www.IgnoranceDestroysDemocracy.com
If you don’t want a cognitively impaired, impulsive, emotionally labile president pass this along.

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Get ready for the SMACKDOWN!

LAT/Bloomberg: Obama Leads in Florida, Ohio
A new Bloomberg/Los Angeles Times Poll shows Sen. Barack Obama leading Sen. John McCain among likely voters in both Forida and Ohio.

Florida: 50% to 43%

Ohio: 49% to 40%

In both states, Obama "has opened commanding leads over McCain among women, young people, first-time voters and blacks and other minorities."
(Political Wire)

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I actually created a spreadsheet for tracking the polls, but I do my averaging a bit different than RCP or here on TPM. Since each poll uses a different Party ID distribution, technically a +4 Obama isn't the same as a +4 Obama in another poll. What if one of those polls said 50% of the likely voters would be independent, and the other said 20%?
To correct for this, I find the average "likely voter target" from each of the pollsters that provide it, then I use poll internals to weight the party support by the party ID distribution.

I get something like this:
Obama 51.3%
McCain 42.5%
Other 2.5%
Undec. 3.7%

More information and my spreadsheet are updated here:
http://www.slincoln.com/polling.html

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Scott, wouldn't it be easier to consolidate your poll where it says SHABAM! McCain takes it in the shorts!

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This cherry-picked tracking poll averaging excludes TIPP (O up 4), Battleground (O up 3) and Gallup LV Traditional (O up 2).


Gee, I wonder why those trackers with low numbers for Barack are excluded on tpm?

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So do think McCain will win? Or Obama will win by less than what Scott predicts?

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No. This is what concern trolls sound like when they become bitter over the futility of their concern trolling.

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There is a good post on fivethirtyeight.com about the TIPP/IBD poll. It has been an outlier the last week or so, mostly because of it's under-sampling of the youngest demographic and it's oversampling of self-described evangelical voters. Just a few days ago, their poll internals showed that the youngest demographic was supporting John McCain 75% to 25%. I recently just started including the TIPP poll again in my calculation.

I suppose the "Track Composite" above could also use the Gallup:Traditional LV, but the most likely distribution of likely voters this cycle would be in their expanded scenario.

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The young kids are just digging the McCain!

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Reagan raised taxes 11 times during his presidency. People don't like to talk about that though.

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Obama's campaign keeps saying the polls will tighten before the election. Since they called each state primary almost exactly, I believe their prediction is correct. Ugh!
But I do believe that Obama is superior as a strategist and will win. Maybe not in a huge landslide though...until 2012.
BTW, Obama is doing a great job of controlling the media this last week. Tomorrow he and Bill Clinton at the rally together will be the big story...until his 30 minute ad.

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Obama's campaign keeps saying the polls will tighten before the election. Since they called each state primary almost exactly, I believe their prediction is correct. Ugh!
But I do believe that Obama is superior as a strategist and will win. Maybe not in a huge landslide though...until 2012.
BTW, Obama is doing a great job of controlling the media this last week. Tomorrow he and Bill Clinton at the rally together will be the big story...until his 30 minute ad.

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McCain reminds me of the E-Trade Baby, he spent his extra coin on Bobo the Clown, and underestimated the creepiness.

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