TPM Track Composite: Obama's Big Lead Inches Up Yet Again
Here's our daily composite of the six major national tracking polls. Barack Obama already-solid national lead may be inching up even further:
• Gallup: Obama 51%, McCain 44%, with a ±2% margin of error, compared to a 51%-45% Obama lead yesterday.
• Rasmussen: Obama 52%, McCain 44%, with a ±2% margin of error, compared to a 52%-45% Obama lead from yesterday.
• ABC/Washington Post: Obama 53%, McCain 44%, with a ±2.5% margin of error, unchanged from yesterday.
• Hotline/Diageo: Obama 50%, McCain 43%, with a ±3.3% margin of error, unchanged from yesterday.
• Research 2000: Obama 52%, McCain 40%, with a ±3% margin of error, unchanged from yesterday.
• Zogby: Obama 51%, McCain 42%, with a ±2.9% margin of error, compared to a 51%-41% Obama lead yesterday.
Adding these polls together and weighting them by the square roots of their sample sizes, Obama is ahead 51.6%-42.8%, a lead of 8.8 points, compared to the 51.6%-43.1% Obama lead from yesterday.
Eric:
Can we all get a promise from you not to unleash misleading and needlessly dramatic headlines when the national trackers tighten a bit next week?
Thanks in advance.
October 25, 2008 5:08 PM | Reply | Permalink
The polls were "suppose" to tighten up this past week and they just got better for Obama. Given the McDysfunction Campaign, there is not reason to believe that this year the polls will tighten.
October 25, 2008 5:13 PM | Reply | Permalink
And yet, inevitably, some of them will.
And when they do, I would really like Eric to show some perspective.
October 25, 2008 5:14 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'm putting out there that it is inevitable. Trends in the past have shown this tightening of the polls, but the McCain camp is just imploding. How many times have we seen members of the opposition party jumping ship and endorsing the other candidate, etc.
And now as someone else posted earlier, CNN's lead story on the front page, Palin goes rogue.
http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/10/25/palin.tension/index.html
This kind of thing will push even more undecideds to Obama
October 25, 2008 5:18 PM | Reply | Permalink
Damn! that is not inevitable...
October 25, 2008 5:21 PM | Reply | Permalink
According to the state polls at electoral-vote.com Obama leads 375 EVs to 157 for McCain. Obama leads in Florida. This looks like asolid led. We shall see if it holds until the day of the election.
Please answer a poll on health care at http://poll.democratz.org
October 25, 2008 7:23 PM | Reply | Permalink
Your comment is spam and an abuse of the Reply function.
October 25, 2008 9:03 PM | Reply | Permalink
That Electoral-Vote lineup is like the one at InTrade, too.
October 25, 2008 9:50 PM | Reply | Permalink
Saw this at the CBS site, too. It's as though several inside McCain's staff have decided to make a preemptive strike against Palin.
Hard to see what this gains them if it's not true.
October 25, 2008 6:43 PM | Reply | Permalink
yeah, too bad that it really mccains fault for picking palin in the first place.
The Smartest Thing Palin Is Doing
October 25, 2008 6:48 PM | Reply | Permalink
they gain someone to blame in there eyes it will all be her fault not mcsame
while yea she was big part of this losing strategy so was he him more so as he was the boss the top of the ticket
but you watch after the election if all goes the way it looks now they will be tearing each other apart
October 25, 2008 9:26 PM | Reply | Permalink
Love, McDysfunction.
May I use McDys, instead?
October 25, 2008 9:34 PM | Reply | Permalink
And it just gets better and better.
October 25, 2008 5:09 PM | Reply | Permalink
Shorter:
Gallup: +6 => +7
Rasmussen: +7 => +8
ABC-WaPo: +9 unchanged
H-D: +7 unchanged
R2k: +12 unchanged
Zombie: +10 => +9
Well, everybody knew the race would tighten down the home stretch.
October 25, 2008 5:11 PM | Reply | Permalink
But what about the famed "square root" that Eric is obsessed with ?
October 25, 2008 8:05 PM | Reply | Permalink
Snark :-) I hope you'll forgive a straight answer.
Eric is not obsessed with anything. OTOH, many commenters seem to be obsessed with dumping on him -- undeservedly so, IMO. Mob psychology plus echo-chamber effect.
I still believe the square-root thing is a mistake. Apparently Eric feels otherwise. His privilege, and I'm not sure I'd pay much attention to the bottom-line average, anyway. Seeing the pools broken out like this does the job just fine for me.
October 25, 2008 9:18 PM | Reply | Permalink
Have you been appointed hall-monitor today. Your reprimands seem to imply it.
October 25, 2008 9:56 PM | Reply | Permalink
I see you got suckered by that democratz spam up-thread.
Don't believe it? Check out the thread before this, and the one before that, etc... You'll see that spam wedged in there on every thread as close to the top as possible. It's always in reply to someone's comment, but it never has anything to do with that comment. It's just an ad for the site it links to.
Now, you were saying?
October 25, 2008 10:05 PM | Reply | Permalink
Why are you pusuing this? I was replying to the substance of the e-mail. Not the "spam" that you're focusing on, which I found it easier to ignore than to waste time and space with more messages typed with officious pursed lips. But now you're going to go after me, too?
Get a life.
October 25, 2008 10:11 PM | Reply | Permalink
By pursuing, do you mean replying to your criticism of my hall-monitor-like behavior? You did base it on reprimands (plural) you perceive me to have made.
To characterize my reply here as a reprimand is silly. But my comment up-thread is indeed a reprimand to a spammer.
You must mean your reply up-thread to the spam. Nothing wrong with that reply.
But you didn't ignore the spam; you replied to it. No biggie there. No harm done.
FWIW, its spam-ness isn't obvious. But don't hold your breath watiing for a reply from democratz. Spammers don't work that way.
Seems the other way 'round, no?
You complained about my hall-monitor-like reprimands, and I replied. That's "going after" you? Sheesh.
Also, you claim to be interested in susbtance, but stuff like hall monitor and pursed lips and get a life is exactly the opposite of substance.
In your replies to me, I have not detected one substantive comment about where, how, or why anything I said was mistaken.
October 25, 2008 10:48 PM | Reply | Permalink
As an engineer, I have never seen a square root of any given set of numbers means anything. If Eric was talking about root of mean of squares, then that is something else.
And oh, he is obsessed about square root thingy, which he has not cared to explain.
October 25, 2008 9:59 PM | Reply | Permalink
You're right, Eric never explained it. I just assumed someone whom he respected told him that's how it's done, and that person got it wrong.
But I don't remember Eric being obsessed with it. Another commenter and I did have some discussion about it a while back in which chi-square came up. Turned out he was misapplying a (correct) intuition relating a sample's significance to the square root of its size.
FWIW, a sample's MoE is inversely proportional to the square root of its size.
October 25, 2008 10:14 PM | Reply | Permalink
Since his 24-point headlines pivot around this square root thingy, I would say obsessed is apt.
October 25, 2008 10:23 PM | Reply | Permalink
Ah, you think I'm being overly generous to Eric? I guess that's possible. Maybe I'm hoping the sample sizes are similar enough so that it doesn't matter whether he weights them by N or √N.
October 25, 2008 10:58 PM | Reply | Permalink
Well, for counting experiments governed by Poisson statistics, the uncertainty on N counts is given by sqrt(N). Perhaps you don't run into this kind of data in your engineering work but it is fundamental to many experimental scientific fields. I am guessing this is the basis of Erik's averaging, but others are correct in stating that he is not doing it right. For a weighted average, you usually weight points by the square of the uncertainty (see the wikipedia entry for weighted mean, for instance). In this case, since the uncertainty is the square root, the weights should be the straight sample sizes. In any case, I like the poll results regardless of how Erik chooses to average them.
October 26, 2008 1:29 PM | Reply | Permalink
I get little thrills running up my spine reading this -
October 25, 2008 5:11 PM | Reply | Permalink
Is that like having a tingle go up your leg?
October 25, 2008 6:04 PM | Reply | Permalink
And the fallout from the 'hoax' and 'campaign infighting' have yet to hit the Polls.......
If the race continues to 'tighten' at this rate, Obama is looking at a 15-point blowout.
October 25, 2008 5:16 PM | Reply | Permalink
People are looking for an administration that they can trust will be deal with the crisis. The infighting dust-up completely undermines this. One more step toward North Dakota and Montana turning blue.
October 25, 2008 5:25 PM | Reply | Permalink
These last few days are going to creak by so slowly for me! Ten days until the election.
October 25, 2008 5:17 PM | Reply | Permalink
That's the truth - but given how quickly time moves for me these days, I think I'll savor it.
;)
(that's another very pleasant effect of cannabis - it slows your perception of time down. As days turn into hours and weeks into days and those pass faster every year, that's just another benefit that I really enjoy.)
October 25, 2008 5:22 PM | Reply | Permalink
Roger that!!
October 25, 2008 5:39 PM | Reply | Permalink
Can the DOJ really intefere in Ohio, I thought that was off limits for them.
October 25, 2008 5:26 PM | Reply | Permalink
Federal DOJ officials are the proper people to investigate violations of FEDERAL CAMPAIGN and VOTING laws.
The Ohio AG investigates violations of STATE voting law.
October 25, 2008 5:33 PM | Reply | Permalink
Bush has no fucking business injecting the Executive into the election on behalf of his party like this -
This is unprecedented, I think. It certainly is disgusting.
October 25, 2008 6:00 PM | Reply | Permalink
The good news is:
a) even if they pull it off (again) in OH it won't change Obama's winning the election.
and
b) these motherfuckers' days are numbered and after Obama is in the White House (what a glorious phrase THAT is) all the voter intimidation and suppresion will end - followed by a complete investigation into what they've been doing these 8 years and resulting in many, many evildoers getting their just rewards from much bigger guys (some named Raheem) in penitentiaries around the country.
Sorry for the run-on sentence. Sometimes, like Johm McCain, the anger just gets the best of me.
October 25, 2008 6:32 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yeah, that's the brilliance of Obama's campaign. At this point they don't need to win Ohio and Florida. They can do it without them.
October 25, 2008 9:55 PM | Reply | Permalink
Early voting here in Texas. The line was about 15-20 people long.
I just cast my vote today and brought my son with me so he can see his mom cast a vote for history and for the future.
October 25, 2008 5:27 PM | Reply | Permalink
I can't wait to bring my 8 year old son into the voting booth with me on Election Day.
October 25, 2008 6:37 PM | Reply | Permalink
Both polling places near me in NC are still having constant long lines, and they have been that way the entire early voting time. (I live in a heavy Obama area btw)
October 25, 2008 5:29 PM | Reply | Permalink
Great....Eric was saving the good polling news for the PM! Not only is the tide coming in, there's going to be more interesting twists and turns in the adventures of McCain-Palin and their friends. Who needs a new bicycle when you've got a big bag of tasty treats with its own self-replicating mechanism? GOTV!
October 25, 2008 5:31 PM | Reply | Permalink
What's hanging fire bigtime is this new investigation into Palin's abuse of power.
She got hoist on her petard - talk about dumb! She decides only the commission she appointed has the authority to make this determination. So she files an ethics complaint against herself and they promptly bring in independent counsel to do the investigation.
I've been dying laughing for days over this. Who the fuck files an ethics complaint against themselves?
LMAO!!! This is the backfire of all time.
October 25, 2008 5:35 PM | Reply | Permalink
The filing against herself was another campaign gaffe. The McCain-Palin legal team told her to do it.
The gifts that just won't quit giving.......
October 25, 2008 5:38 PM | Reply | Permalink
I realize the campaign is behind this - I'd love to talk to the genius who thought this up.
October 25, 2008 5:48 PM | Reply | Permalink
Bet if you asked "who's the genius here..." they'd all raise both hands before you finished the question. LOL
October 25, 2008 5:56 PM | Reply | Permalink
Bet by the time this is all over, you won't be able to find many who will admit they even worked on this campaign.
Have y'all read over at HuffPo that Princess Sparkle Starburst got huffy with the wardrobe people at SNL cause she wanted better clothes - her own. For one thing, she like those skirts tight - yeah she's giving that shit back. Yeah somebody else bought it - sure. She didn't try it on.
She is one of the world's worst liars.
October 25, 2008 6:14 PM | Reply | Permalink
I've kind of wondered whether her deceptions weren't sufficient to work for her until she ended up on the national stage with a far higher degree of scrutiny.
October 25, 2008 11:29 PM | Reply | Permalink
And they would have gotten away with it too if weren't for those meddling kids.
Actually, it was normal rovian protocol to investigate their own rule breaking. That way you don't have to talk to the real investigators. They just forgot to make sure the inside investigator was going to sell his soul to the devil and take a dive on the whole matter.
Upon realizing this oversight, I'll bet someone in the campaign is being forced to take remedial Rovian political tactics 101.
October 25, 2008 5:51 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yes, but these people are such amateurs that they do this shit without knowing whether or not it will work - Rove pretty much covered his bases.'
These people are jokes -
October 25, 2008 5:54 PM | Reply | Permalink
If we assume the McCain insider who called her "a diva" is on the mark, then she would believe that there is no one else worthy enough to file the complaint.
October 25, 2008 5:39 PM | Reply | Permalink
It's totally bizarre because it's an admission that you think you might have done something wrong -
It makes no sense.
October 25, 2008 5:51 PM | Reply | Permalink
It makes sense if you understand she thinks she did nothing wrong. Its that 'Go ahead and call the cops - they'll tell you I have every right to beat my own kid' mentality. They can't help it. This is better than the three stooges, I swear!
October 25, 2008 8:18 PM | Reply | Permalink
If she's a diva and mcShame's a diva, there are gonna be more fireworks between this duo before the dance is done!
October 25, 2008 7:46 PM | Reply | Permalink
I've actually been waiting for them to go at each others' throats for weeks. He needs to hog center stage and she's taking it--I was a POW, godammit!!!!!
October 25, 2008 11:38 PM | Reply | Permalink
TenaX, Thanks for clearing that up for me. I had read about it but was so confused I had to let it go. It is funny. Wassup with the McCain campaign? They cannot stop ffing up. I want the campaign to be over so Obama is Prez but I must say I am a little concerned about what will amuse me when it's over. I imagine there will be a month of blaming game that will be worth lots of hoots but then what?
October 25, 2008 8:04 PM | Reply | Permalink
Go go go, woohoo.
Just got back from canvassing in Northern Virginia. Had three people out of the 16 contacts that switched their vote because of Palin. 15 of the 16 contacts i made were strong Obama supporters and 1 undecided. All but 2 were white, non Hispanic voters.
It's great watching VA turn cobalt blue on fivethirtyeight.com. VA has really put a damper on the McCain's campaign strategy.
October 25, 2008 5:40 PM | Reply | Permalink
Excellent.
October 25, 2008 5:42 PM | Reply | Permalink
If Sarah's a diva, that's the most positive thing I've heard about her so far. Me thinks the campaign staff figured her for a Barbie doll they could dress up and control like a brainless puppet.
October 25, 2008 5:53 PM | Reply | Permalink
I guess they didn't take their own bullshit about Sarah the Barracuda and Sarah the Pitbull seriously.
Can they get any less aware? Anyone who thought she was a fluffy bunny needs seriously help.
October 25, 2008 6:03 PM | Reply | Permalink
You folks evidently have a very different view of divas than I have. I work with international opera stars, and believe me when I say that these divas make pit bulls look like canaries. In my world (and, as I took it, in that of the speaker) there's nothing fiercer, more tenacious and self-focused than a diva. NOT team players.
October 25, 2008 10:06 PM | Reply | Permalink
Barack on CNN!
October 25, 2008 5:58 PM | Reply | Permalink
Thanks, can listen while blogging, wonderful.
October 25, 2008 6:13 PM | Reply | Permalink
I voted yesterday. Medium to large lines at the Rodeo Grounds (yes, that IS our early voting place in Santa Fe!), and while I was waiting I was listening to the names being called....Baca, Vigil, Lujan, Montoya, Martinez, Feldman, Schwartz, Smith, Kane, O'Donnell, Schmutz .... and on and on....cowboys, hippies, harried moms, geeks, abuelas, the gamut.......
I'd been looking at voting as something I HAD TO DO SOON, but as I left the building, I thought of my children, who are all black, and the transformation this country is beginning.....yes, it IS the beginning, and I burst into tears. And I wasn't the only one crying.
October 25, 2008 6:02 PM | Reply | Permalink
O what a lovely story.
October 25, 2008 6:10 PM | Reply | Permalink
I voted yesterday too (here in northern Colorado). I didn't have to wait in line, but the polling place was quite busy, as all but one of the 15 or so polling boths was occupied when I was given my ballot. As best as I could tell, the lack of line was more due to the very efficient polling workers there than a lack of interest by voters.
And that was good to see. Of course, I can't speak for the efficiency of polling places elsewhere in the state, some of which may be more problematic than mine.
October 25, 2008 6:11 PM | Reply | Permalink
Running smooth in rural Jefferson County when I was there Thursday dropping off my mail-in ballot.
They had a heavy, locked canvas bag about the size of a microwave with a slit in the top. At about 1:30 PM the bag was full enough that the lady had to lift up the top so that we could get our ballots in it. That's besides the 8 voting machines they had going with a couple of people waiting for them.
October 25, 2008 6:48 PM | Reply | Permalink
I think that is so wonderful.
October 25, 2008 6:14 PM | Reply | Permalink
Truly.
October 25, 2008 6:39 PM | Reply | Permalink
Very interesting post. When I walked out of my polling station, after voting early, I was laughing. Funny how people react differently to the same stimulus.
October 25, 2008 8:13 PM | Reply | Permalink
I've seen long lines in some parts of New Mexico on the news. Bernalillo had really long lines and broken machines.
October 25, 2008 6:17 PM | Reply | Permalink
Obama just called for a medic, someone fainted, he heard it and interrupted his speech, wants to make sure they are okay.
October 25, 2008 6:19 PM | Reply | Permalink
Loving the CNN article in which McCain camp is calling Palin a "Diva"!!!
http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/10/25/palin.tension/index.html
October 25, 2008 6:20 PM | Reply | Permalink
"She is a diva. She takes no advice from anyone," said this McCain adviser. "She does not have any relationships of trust with any of us, her family or anyone else.
No shit, they are just figuring that out?!
October 25, 2008 6:21 PM | Reply | Permalink
LOL!
Can you believe these people? I posted this upthread, but since we're talking diva - she got huffy with the wardrobe people at SNL - she didn't want to wear what they wanted her to wear, so she'd match Tina Fey. No, she wanted her own clothes - you know, the ones that aren't really hers? The ones she never even tried on - they were thrust upon here all unwittingly?
Diva is about right - if that means stupid vicious and self-important bitch.
October 25, 2008 6:24 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yep. With the way things are playing out one thing seems pretty clear to me. Have you ever seen a real barracuda go after baitfish? I have and there can be carnage. Where did Sarah Palin get her nickname (the one not packaged for prime-time)? From the hometown folks who ought to know her best. Things are going to get much uglier as Palin throws blame and tries to salvage her political career.
October 25, 2008 7:03 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'd say her political career is in tatters. And she has only herself to thank. If she'd stayed in Alaska, so many things would have just stayed under the rug. But noooooo, she had to move up! And up she did! And up went all the rugs! And gotcha went all all the people! And bye, bye... say I!
October 25, 2008 8:11 PM | Reply | Permalink
Wow, his confidence is just growing each time he speaks. Such a wonderful speech in Las Vegas!!!
October 25, 2008 6:23 PM | Reply | Permalink
The medic stuff happens at many of his rallies. People stand in line for hours without eating enough or having enough water, then pass out.
But please - don't get lazy. It's only ten more days. We have to keep up the phone banks, canvassing, networking, whatever it is you're doing.
For example, one of my friends in California called me today very upset because the evangelicals and extreme wingnuts are coming out in huge numbers to vote due to Prop 8, the anti-gay marriage initiative, on the ballot out there. So, if you are in California (where I once lived) get off the chaise lounge and do something to help Barack - Please. I'm still very nervous about all this.
October 25, 2008 6:26 PM | Reply | Permalink
I am in CA, the ads for Prop. 8, mostly funded by LDS, are disgusting and untrue, i.e., they are teaching same sex marriage to second graders, etc. I posted earlier, but even if you can donate $5 to fight this issue, it will help. Because it is CA, it will be a huge blow to have this pass. This is for an amendment to make marriage between a man/woman by amending the state constitution. The ads are relentless on television. This was headed for defeat before Focus on Family and the Mormons started pouring millions to pass this thing. Donate to:
https://secure.ga4.org/01/equalityforall
October 25, 2008 6:33 PM | Reply | Permalink
Just saw this about Mormon's shutting their Utah call centers re Prop 8. Apparently it pays to keep making the "Mormon connection" here:
http://oxdown.firedoglake.com/diary/1074
October 25, 2008 8:02 PM | Reply | Permalink
They're out there! They just knocked on my door and they made sure I knew the candidate for Senate, Congress and the state legislature too. That seems a lot more focused than they were in 2004 when it seemed that every candidate was interested in only their own campaign.
October 25, 2008 6:36 PM | Reply | Permalink
Came to my door, steep hill and little town (CA), vote for Obama, and also covered state contests, I gave the guy bottled water and thanked him profusely for his good deeds, it is warm here!
October 25, 2008 6:39 PM | Reply | Permalink
OMG, the poor Secret Service, it is hot, they are in their suits and the people cannot get enough of Obama, does anyone know the number of SS he has assigned to him? The crowds are pretty damn large.
October 25, 2008 6:26 PM | Reply | Permalink
I don't get this - I turned on CNN but no Obama - two old dumb guys discussing polls -
October 25, 2008 6:33 PM | Reply | Permalink
Well if the polls are saying its not a close race you gotta make something up to make people think it could be a close race.
October 25, 2008 6:35 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yes but Amelie is seeing a speech on CNN and I'm not - that was my point.
October 25, 2008 6:36 PM | Reply | Permalink
Tena: It just ended, I watched via split screen on computer - cnn.live video.
October 25, 2008 6:36 PM | Reply | Permalink
Aha!
And damn. I missed it.
October 25, 2008 6:38 PM | Reply | Permalink
I thought I read he is giving one more today in N.M., that might be on later.
October 25, 2008 6:40 PM | Reply | Permalink
Albuquerque, tonight -
I"m not going - I'd have to spend the night in Albuquerque and I'm just not that fond of Albuquerque. But I would go if somebody else would drive. I've done that 300 mile round trip 4 times this summer.
I'd love to see him - I should have gone to Espanola.
October 25, 2008 6:43 PM | Reply | Permalink
Tena: Here is url for CNN video live.
http://www.cnn.com/video/flashLive/live.html?stream=stream2
October 25, 2008 6:47 PM | Reply | Permalink
Aren't you sweet - I hope you see this -
Thanks!
October 25, 2008 10:11 PM | Reply | Permalink
I've probably mentioned this before, but one very vivid political memory I have of living in Albuquerque was seeing the pro-bush supporters standing at a busy intersection holding a huge "Sore/Loserman" banner and hearing large numbers of cars honking as they went by...obviously back in the winter of 2000.
I'm really thankful for Bill Richardson--for a lot of things--and the fact that New Mexico is going so blue this time. It's too fine a place to be a "bush state."
October 25, 2008 6:59 PM | Reply | Permalink
ABQ this evening.
October 25, 2008 6:52 PM | Reply | Permalink
And I knew if I had my chance
That I could make those people dance...
October 25, 2008 9:41 PM | Reply | Permalink
Forgive me for saying I'm not fond of Alb - please. I actually do like parts of it.
I just had my car broken into one of the last times I spent the night in Albuquerque.
Mainly, it's the drive and leaving my cat by himself overnight. He's not that kind of cat - he really hates it.
October 25, 2008 10:17 PM | Reply | Permalink
Check out this article I just saw on the Daily Beast.
http://www.thedailybeast.com/blogs-and-stories/2008-10-24/found-object/
I'd love to know who is doing this kind of crap. Talk about low lifes.
October 25, 2008 6:39 PM | Reply | Permalink
That pisses me off. That is what my mother is afraid of, the "blacks" taking over. Never mind my brother, her son, is the father of an adopted black child with four grandchildren now.
October 25, 2008 6:44 PM | Reply | Permalink
CNN.com Headline: Palin's 'going rogue,' McCain aide says Palin
October 25, 2008 6:39 PM | Reply | Permalink
Well that was on HuffPo this morning for a headline -CNN is a little behind. But better late than never.
October 25, 2008 6:41 PM | Reply | Permalink
TPM just posted about the DOJ / Ohio / Bush request. F**king unbelievable.
October 25, 2008 6:51 PM | Reply | Permalink
What are they thinking? They're going to end up disenfranchising Joe the Plumber!
October 25, 2008 7:51 PM | Reply | Permalink
I sit here after I post aging rapidly, (think I will try Tena's solution to time passing) but this might explain it somewhat. This was on Huffington Post today.
Ranked as the largest political site, The Huffington Post grew more than fivefold to 4.5 million unique visitors in September, compared to 792,000 a year ago. TalkingPointsMemo, run by political blogger Josh Marshall, enjoyed the biggest audience bump, going from just 32,000 to 458,000.
October 25, 2008 6:54 PM | Reply | Permalink
Whoa - that's an enormous increase!
October 25, 2008 7:35 PM | Reply | Permalink
No wonder the servers are in a constant state of meltdown!
October 25, 2008 9:46 PM | Reply | Permalink
I was canvassing in Northern Virginia today also. Lots of Obama support in immigrant communities - I used my rusty Spanish a lot.
But I also ran into Joe the Plumber, or at least his local equivalent. This guy was about 40 and not looking particularly propserous. His wife looked like she was in chemo. But he was firmly against "spreading the wealth." Didn't want any universal health care. Was very worried about Obama's tax increases. I asked why he was worrid about people mking more than 250K. Said he expects to make that himself some day. Somehow, I doubt it.
October 25, 2008 6:55 PM | Reply | Permalink
I ran into this at the house of "Larry the Cable Guy" last night, too. Sad--some people are really hell-bent on letting their anger (and/or fear) get ahead of their own best interests.
Also ran into another person, though, who would've been the poster child for bush in '04 had demographics been the determining factor--and she was firmly pro-Obama because of the mess bush has made and McCain's transparently negative campaign. It was beautiful to see someone really paying attention.
October 25, 2008 7:05 PM | Reply | Permalink
I just don't understand this belief. I mean - its excellent to dream - but do people not realize how MUCH money that is? The difference between 55k and 250k is immense. In order to go from point A to point B - some amazing amount of luck would have to befall upon the earner. I'm sorry - there just is no career path that goes that way. None. If you are a middle aged individual making 55k and there is no inheritance coming your way, shoot for 6 figures as a lofty goal. 250 is out of the question. Sorry.
And on top of that - lets say you did make it there. How long did it take? 10 years? 15? 20!?! So until then you are going to suffer under a tremendously unfair tax system? A system that makes it harder for the 55k earner to find work, buy a house, go back to school, take care of a sick loved one, etc, etc?
I speak as someone who will receive very little tax relief from Obama. In fact, it would probably be more beneficial for me, when it comes to taxes, to vote for McCain. But what good is an extra 300 bucks a year when EVERYTHING else is broken? It just makes no sense. None.
October 25, 2008 7:26 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yeah, it really is sad. People have been getting conned into voting illusion over fact for quite a while. And it gets to be a very hard habit to break.
October 25, 2008 7:39 PM | Reply | Permalink
I canvassed in a "bad karma" neighborhood in my own community. Mostly mcShame folks. Mostly people not at home actually.
What I found is this. People voting for Obama are hopeful and cheerful and reach out. People who are pro-mcShame seem to be angry and resentful. Now maybe the latter are only that way when they're losing, but maybe not. It was such a stark difference.
When I called it a "bad karma" neighborhood, I hope you understand that I meant in terms of canvassing there. Bad vibes. Not a place you'd "choose" to walk around in. But also, maybe a place where the tide is turning... and karma is returning.
October 25, 2008 7:55 PM | Reply | Permalink
I have absolutely found this to be true. Obama voters tend to say, "Thank you," when you come to the door. Most know how important this election is. I think we're grateful to be in it together.
I don't just think that's because of Big O's position in the polls; I think it's because he has a way of making people feel like there might be some light at the end of this very long tunnel. People need that. The right kind of leader really can bring out a person's better nature--just as the wrong kind can do the opposite.
October 25, 2008 8:47 PM | Reply | Permalink
Gavin Newsom just posted on Huff Post, here is his message, please pass on to anyone in CA
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wW2BGqnEXag&eurl=http://www.huffingtonpost.com/gavin-newsom/protect-marriage-equality_b_137848.html
October 25, 2008 7:12 PM | Reply | Permalink
Mormons alone spent $6,000,000 in California to to attack Gay marriage.
October 25, 2008 7:17 PM | Reply | Permalink
Another apple for the cart:
Check it out over at Daily JOS:
Obama is now within 4% in ARIZONA!!! (And another AZ poll due out tomorrow apparently confirms)
October 25, 2008 7:31 PM | Reply | Permalink
Every time I see your screen name, I miss Ithaca! We lived in a radius of Ithaca for over 20 years. So I think of you fondly...
Thrilled to hear your report of the tightening in AZ. Let's hope we can pull the rug out from under mcShame right at his doorstep! (or one of them...)
October 25, 2008 7:50 PM | Reply | Permalink
Tell me something about AZ: it's a pretty red state, so how did Janet Nepalitano manage to become governor? What is the Democratic stronghold there (if there is one)? There's a lot of older voters there, right, with money? So who are the Democrats?
October 25, 2008 8:56 PM | Reply | Permalink
OT:
update from northern virginia. i just attended training for lawyers who will be working the polls (for the good guys) on election day here in virginia.
i don't want to get into too much detail, because much of it is confidential (for good reason), but i can tell you that the organization, enthusiasm, discipline, and technological capabilities are STAGGERING.
there are THOUSANDS of lawyers in virginia being deployed to EVERY polling place. at least one lawyer outside and at least one lawyer inside (this is in addition to the "regular" poll watchers and other poll workers).
in addition, i canvassed this morning. the weather here (in northern virginia) was ATROCIOUS this morning -- pouring rain, howling winds. and there were more people than i've ever seen before at our launching house. about three times as many people as last week, just at that house (again, like the esq. training, just one of many, many, many launching sites in the area).
sign up sheets were handed out at the house for the four days leading up to the election (called "4 Days for 4 Years") -- volunteers in virginia will be working 24 hour days for the four days leading up to the election, canvassing, calling, door-hanging.
virginia dems could not be more enthusiastic, more engaged, or more serious about taking this state blue.
October 25, 2008 7:38 PM | Reply | Permalink
This is terrific news. Help calm me down, thanks for all your efforts, very much appreciated.
October 25, 2008 7:40 PM | Reply | Permalink
Here, this should help too:
http://oxdown.firedoglake.com/diary/1074
October 25, 2008 8:04 PM | Reply | Permalink
You sweetheart, thank you !!!!
October 25, 2008 8:16 PM | Reply | Permalink
I knew it would warm the cockles of your heart!
October 25, 2008 9:10 PM | Reply | Permalink
Great news. No need to worry about being OT - that sort of update is welcome in any thread :)
October 25, 2008 7:56 PM | Reply | Permalink
Thank you for your efforts and the update! That's truly fantastic.
October 25, 2008 9:13 PM | Reply | Permalink
OT: Check out Florida's Barbara West anchor interviewing Biden, unbelievable questions, Marxism??? Here is her email, BTW.
barbara.west@wftv.com
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/10/25/biden-slammed-during-flor_n_137830.html
October 25, 2008 8:15 PM | Reply | Permalink
This woman made herself look like an idoit. she was spewing Hannity's talking points. her husband is a republican consultant.
October 25, 2008 8:26 PM | Reply | Permalink
Wow, impressive you know that!!
October 25, 2008 8:27 PM | Reply | Permalink
meet her husband
http://mediapowergroup.com/wadebio.html
October 25, 2008 8:44 PM | Reply | Permalink
Biden handled that disgusting interview perfectly.
October 25, 2008 8:34 PM | Reply | Permalink
Apparently Barbara West thinks that her interview was right on target.
http://blogs.orlandosentinel.com/entertainment_tv_tvblog/2008/10/wftvs-barbara-w.html
October 25, 2008 9:03 PM | Reply | Permalink
Seconded, Joe handled it well and it's laughable Repugs are trying to label him as "erratic." And that interviewer is...wtf?? That wild-eyed stare, combative style... that's the definite sign of the whackjob women club membership!
I'll email to protest, not just to her but to WFTV (though I think they've already got a huge number of emails from sane people... the interview was SO incredibly ridiculous).
October 25, 2008 9:04 PM | Reply | Permalink
Stupendous comebacks by Biden! I was so glad when he said, "I don't know who's writing your questions, but..." Because truly they did not sound like they could come out of the mind of this woman, speaking in this contemptuous way. Since when do people have so little respect? Her behavior was disgusting! And Biden's was classy and he knocked every contemptuous attack right out of the park!
October 25, 2008 9:27 PM | Reply | Permalink
testing
October 25, 2008 8:22 PM | Reply | Permalink
I just now read the CNN article acamus posted around the top of the thread...
Diva, Prima Donna, queen bee... yeah, that's exactly it. With the election increasingly getting out of reach, it seems all she intends to do now is to use McCain and suck him dry for her own political benefits. I wonder if neocon fuckwits (like Kristol) are egging her on from outside of the campaign?
This is the very consequence of a shotgun marriage.
October 25, 2008 8:52 PM | Reply | Permalink
Every time I read that quote, especially the part about not having "any relationships of trust" (even with her family!), and I must have read this 10 times today, I feel shocked that such a person would be billed as a "mom," a "family oriented" candidate, and as a christian. She really sounds very, very strange. Self-involved and nothing else. No wonder she has no real policy interests. And now I feel even worse for her children. And if observers don't see her as even trusting her family? Oh, boy....
I really find this disturbing. On the other hand it sounds just like mcShame.....
October 25, 2008 9:17 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yeah, if the description is true and not just an early part of the blame game she's more like a barracuda than I'd thought.
October 25, 2008 11:20 PM | Reply | Permalink
Could explain why her 17 year old daughter is pregnant.
October 25, 2008 11:47 PM | Reply | Permalink
As regard Palin, two questions! What has gone poorly for McCain since selecting Diva Palin? What has gone well for Obama since McCain selected Diva Palin?
My suggestion relax, enjoy it! She is helping bury the Republicans very deeply for a long time, she is just taking away some of the load on this side of the divide is dealing with her party. Be grateful, she has no idea how much she has contributed!
October 25, 2008 9:31 PM | Reply | Permalink
more OT:
wow. my wife and i just watched barack's 2004 convention speech again. start watching at around 7:00 of the video.
http://uk.youtube.com/watch?v=eWynt87PaJ0
i guess this is why we don't hear the caterwauling about "flip-flopping" this time around. amazing -- if anyone thought obama was full of shit and was just pandering to a depressed electorate in 2008, they're clueless.
as my wife said: "that's integrity."
October 25, 2008 9:33 PM | Reply | Permalink
Don't get complacent. Only one poll matters, and it's ten days away.
Call your local Obama office and ask what they need. Volunteer, phone bank, canvass, drive people to the polls.
Leave it all on the field, as they say in football.
October 25, 2008 9:37 PM | Reply | Permalink
Cancel the election! Drudge says that there is a story "developing" that in a single day of polling, Zogby had Obama head of McCain by only 3pts, 49-46. Only 3pts ahead in a single day of a daily tracking poll! Cancel the vote, hand the election to Palin/McCain right now. It's over!
October 25, 2008 9:46 PM | Reply | Permalink
Drudge is doing us a favor. Anyone else remember that feeling after Kerry lost?
Don't forget it.
Leave it on the ice, as they say in hockey.
October 25, 2008 9:50 PM | Reply | Permalink
Okay, I won't say, "He shoots, he scores!", until after the polls close but it's gonna be tough.
October 25, 2008 10:02 PM | Reply | Permalink
PPP Virginia Poll: Obama 52 McCain 43
http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_Virginia_1025631.pdf
October 25, 2008 11:04 PM | Reply | Permalink
I know nine points is a healthy lead. But it's a PPP poll. It makes me nervous. But, again I'm nervous about everything right now. 10 days more.
October 25, 2008 11:21 PM | Reply | Permalink
Well its the highest PPP ever gave Obama in VA, if that makes you feel better about it.
October 25, 2008 11:36 PM | Reply | Permalink
The so-called internals were very interesting; in short few undecided, less than 5%, 90%+ have decided and few plan to reconsider. Don't trust polls to much but overall most as this one are very consistent in particular with the internals. Another factor the news( at least to me) seems slow given that the election is in about 10 days. Heard from a relative who attended Obama's stop in Las Vegas who indicated it was well attended with very excited folks of all ages and kinds. I do not believe their is any let down of effort given the level of focused activities and volunteers, and yes all need run through the finish line.
October 25, 2008 11:50 PM | Reply | Permalink
Has anyone seen this yet?????????
Palin: "Obama's Tax Plans Could Mean Nightmare Communist State"
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/10/25/palin-obamas-tax-plans-co_n_137851.html
She disgusts me. Everyday there is a little more to hate about this shrew.
October 25, 2008 11:09 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yep. The McCarthy attacks come full circle. Now democrats and Obama supporters are communinsts.
October 25, 2008 11:26 PM | Reply | Permalink
I hear Obama will take your first born son, and he will appoint Osama to the supreme court. Then he will make white people sit at the back of the bus. Then he will force everyone to be gay....
The sad part is, people actually say things like this...
October 25, 2008 11:48 PM | Reply | Permalink
Palin's left the farm, by many reports. She sees herself as the savior of the GOP and isn't going to let old man McGoo spoil her party.
October 26, 2008 12:00 AM | Reply | Permalink
Kurtz has a similar piece up by Mark Levin. He goes right over the fucking edge and all but screams: He's a black Hitler!
These people are losing what was left of their minds.
October 25, 2008 11:56 PM | Reply | Permalink
They'll never find the pieces -- too small.
October 26, 2008 12:06 AM | Reply | Permalink
Small minds and even smaller pieces.
October 26, 2008 12:08 AM | Reply | Permalink
Word.
October 26, 2008 12:35 AM | Reply | Permalink
Just a hint of what's there...
...believe that Mr Obama is poised to win a crushing mandate.
They believe he will be powerful enough to remake the American political landscape with even more ease than Ronald Reagan did in 1980.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/uselection2008/barackobama/3260074/Republican-fears-of-historic-Obama-landslide-unleash-civil-war-for-the-future-of-the-party.html
October 25, 2008 11:59 PM | Reply | Permalink
It reads like a parody, doesn't it? If only...
I'm counting the minutes until these sleazy, crooked, menadcious know-nothings are consigned to their rightful place, the garbage-can of history. You betcha, my friends...
October 26, 2008 12:01 AM | Reply | Permalink
Palin is exposing herself as the fringe nut that she is.
October 26, 2008 12:05 AM | Reply | Permalink
A couple of days ago I noted that we had not seen an Arizona poll for some time and wondered. Now we have --albeit from a Dem pollster -- but at McCain +4 AZ sure seems in play. THAT would be the coup de grace!
October 26, 2008 12:06 AM | Reply | Permalink
Well if thats true it might get some other pollsters to poll AZ.
October 26, 2008 12:10 AM | Reply | Permalink
Palin rejects reports that she's a diva...
And I agree with some posters there point out, this part says volumes.
October 26, 2008 12:23 AM | Reply | Permalink
She said that? Sweet suffering Jesus.
October 26, 2008 12:28 AM | Reply | Permalink
Earlier in the campaign (I believe it was early or mid September), she flipped the ticket during the rally ("The Palin and McCain administration") and I remember the Huff mocked that. It usually should not be a big deal -- usually such a thing is just a honest mistake and it should be just something to ridicule and laugh at at most. But now put in the context how self-serving she is, both "the Palin and McCain administration" and "I and John McCain" sounds more and more like a Freudian slip.
October 26, 2008 1:04 AM | Reply | Permalink
And it is my own jacket.???? How do I express the long loud and insane scream that is in my head right now. Palin is SO high school. Make her go away - far far far away.
Please.
October 26, 2008 6:58 AM | Reply | Permalink
David Frum is begging McCain to throw in the towel so that Republicans can be viable in the Congress; divided government is good in other words. Real timely. Hypocritical to the depth of hell, link below.
"Sorry, Senator. Let's Salvage What We Can."
http://www.washingtonpost..com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/10/23/AR2008102302081.html
October 26, 2008 12:45 AM | Reply | Permalink
CORRECT LINK! ONE TOO MUCH ..
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/10/23/AR2008102302081.html
October 26, 2008 12:53 AM | Reply | Permalink
The Telegraph in the UK is stating the same too. Better to salvage some control over the legislature at this point in the game especially if McCain doesn't take the White House...they need a fall back position to stay alive.
October 26, 2008 12:55 AM | Reply | Permalink
I'm watching a recording of some of Palin's supporters leaving a rally in Henderson, Nevada. I think it would be interesting if the next Congress spends some time reviewing the hatred spewing forth from these rallys. There is definitely an issue of race relations gone sour to the point of extreme xenophobic hatred without justifiable cause or reason. Personally, I think Bu$h played the the fear card way too many times that morphed the fear to irrational hatred for things which people have no control over.
October 26, 2008 12:50 AM | Reply | Permalink
Sounds good but likely not too good, it would give support for Frum's argument as noted above. I am for James Carville's view on anvils; this is to say Palin or similar types will be poster filler for the Republicans wars that will soon erupt, they need no support from the Democrats or anyone else to close ranks. Too many major issues need be tackled; this bag of tricks, political speech, etc. need be avoided. This type of thing is not new nor will it disappear; the basic option is to contain the madness by the electoral process. I suspect much of this will be seen in a variety of forms, but broad public rebuke will reduce it very quickly. Yes, vermin will begin to surface but they do not withstand the light of day very well. This kid with a carving on her face a day ago is a good illustration.
October 26, 2008 1:20 AM | Reply | Permalink
Pennsylvania GOP mass e-mails 75,000 State Jewish voters warning them to "remember the Holocaust" and vote for McCain.
I kid you not - http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/politics/6078422.html
Of course one person has been fired, and the McCain Camp is disavowing the message, but it's all a ploy. They got their message out and can't take it back.
Despicable, desperate, pathetic worms.
October 26, 2008 1:12 AM | Reply | Permalink
Well, they have 9 days more to drive those nails even deeper in the coffin...
October 26, 2008 1:27 AM | Reply | Permalink
Anyone have the displeasure of seeing the hatchet job of an interview an Orlando news anchor did with Biden?
I couldn't believe this lady. I couldn't tell if it was an interview because it sounded like a push poll masquerading as an interview.
Biden held his own though and didn't back down.
Seems like the ones who are complaining the most about the tax plan are the ones who are making over 250k. These people would kill their own mothers if it meant more money for them.
October 26, 2008 1:18 AM | Reply | Permalink
Joe Biden at his best. This is why we tend to ignore his 'gaffes'. You can see why Obama picked Joe for a running mate.
October 26, 2008 6:39 AM | Reply | Permalink
"I and John McCain tend to want to trust the American people with their income, their businesses, their things."
And their ding-a-lings as well?
October 26, 2008 1:49 AM | Reply | Permalink
From Palin's homestate newspaper:
"Yet despite her formidable gifts, few who have worked closely with the governor would argue she is truly ready to assume command of the most important, powerful nation on earth. To step in and juggle the demands of an economic meltdown, two deadly wars and a deteriorating climate crisis would stretch the governor beyond her range. Like picking Sen. McCain for president, putting her one 72-year-old heartbeat from the leadership of the free world is just too risky at this time." The Anchorage Daily News is supporting Obama.
http://www.adn.com/opinion/story/567867.html
October 26, 2008 1:56 AM | Reply | Permalink
From Palin's homestate newspaper:
"Yet despite her formidable gifts, few who have worked closely with the governor would argue she is truly ready to assume command of the most important, powerful nation on earth. To step in and juggle the demands of an economic meltdown, two deadly wars and a deteriorating climate crisis would stretch the governor beyond her range. Like picking Sen. McCain for president, putting her one 72-year-old heartbeat from the leadership of the free world is just too risky at this time." The Anchorage Daily News is supporting Obama.
http://www.adn.com/opinion/story/567867.html
October 26, 2008 1:58 AM | Reply | Permalink
"I and John McCain tend to want to trust the American people with their income, their businesses, their things."
Yeah...sure. What a shame they don't trust the American people with their constituional rights, like voting. If they did, perhaps they wouldn't spend so much time trying to take their votes away from them. Pious, soapy, lying scumbags...
October 26, 2008 3:56 AM | Reply | Permalink
...and what's with that '...tend to want to...' construction?
Waiter: Are you ready to order, Sir?
Me: I tend to want to order, but I'm going to need a few more minutes.
October 26, 2008 3:59 AM | Reply | Permalink
Here's Mo Dow in the NYT today:
...and people are seriously talking about this Lucretia Borgia in snowshoes as if she could be a serious contender in 2012? They must be deranged. Her political instincts are for shit. Every move she makes simply reveals her rank hypocricy.
The laughably dense Quayle, who actually served as VP did not become a serious contender in '96. He vanished into the country-club obscurity he so plainly merited and he's been there ever since.
Hell, I wasn't even sure if the meat-head was still alive until he re-surfaced the other day to reveal he'd advised Snowshoe Barbie on VP matters.
Wasted breath, Danny. Senator Chipmunk-Face McComb-Over and his vapid side-kick are surplus to requirements and on Nov.4th they'll be alerted to this fact in no uncertain fashion. Thank God...
October 26, 2008 4:27 AM | Reply | Permalink
'Twill be interesting to see if RNC people weight in on the acrimony on behalf of McCain. If so, it may signal that they are ready to shove the religious wingers overboard, suffer a breakup of the party and begin reforming immediately.
Oh boy, a new third party: The Bible Bangers...!
As I dropped my ballot in the slot at the post office on Monday, I thought of Mr. Obama and to myself said 'may the trees shake for him.'
October 26, 2008 5:14 AM | Reply | Permalink
On Nov. 22nd, two and a half weeks following his defeat, John McCain keels over dead of a heart attack. America's investors, or what's left of them, shudder and shiver over a calamity narrowly avoided. Never-the-less, the Dow Jones drops another 750 points.
October 26, 2008 5:22 AM | Reply | Permalink
Cindy McCain questioned Obama's character yesterday in New Mexico. They still haven't learned...if you live in a glass house...you should keep your stones in your pocket!
October 26, 2008 10:11 AM | Reply | Permalink
McCain-Failin 08
October 26, 2008 11:33 AM | Reply | Permalink
Newest -
Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby Poll: Obama 49.4%, McCain 44.1%
McCain on MTP said it was 3 points, Brokaw did his box of rocks impression.
October 26, 2008 11:35 AM | Reply | Permalink
I'm wondering what you all think of the
Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby Poll. Is it nothing but an outlier or a sign that things are really tightening up?
October 26, 2008 3:01 PM | Reply | Permalink
My brother is a conservative Republican like most of my family. Mind you its difficult to talk to him when he has made up his mind about something. At the beginning of this campaign, he was sure that Obama would not be a contender after the primaries. Then after the primaries, McCain seem to have his vote. But that all changed. He recently told me that McCain will lose the election for one reason and one reason alone: Palin. I really think the idea of a President Palin scares a lot of people like my brother. No matter what his misgivings about Obama, he's willing to set it aside and vote for him. Obama isn't as bad as a choice in his mind. At least, things won't get worse.
This is important. My brother is registered as a Republican. Like others, they will be voting Obama. Republicans aren't purged from voting rolls, right? Right?
October 26, 2008 11:51 AM | Reply | Permalink
It seems reasonable that about 3% to 5% of Republicans of whatever ilk will vote for Obama due to Palin. Also, McCain has lost a large number of independents. If the lost of long standing Republican voters occurs across all battleground states, this will be monumental. Albeit Obama has the enthusiasm and momentum, it is not over. Other oft overlooked points are that McCain cannot compete on resources, voter registration and the GOTV capacity; these factors appear to close the door to a reversal of current sentiment.
October 26, 2008 12:33 PM | Reply | Permalink
I can't believe Georgia has come into play with Obama leading by 1% point over McCain and Jim Martin has pulled within 2% points of Saxby The turnout is unbelieveable with people waiting in line 3 hours or more. As an AA I have always voted, but this will be the first time i will volunteer for a campaign. Next week I will be working a phone bank. If everyone contributes just a small amount of their time and energy we can tell the republicans "NOT THIS TIME".
October 26, 2008 4:35 PM | Reply | Permalink