TPM Track Composite: Obama's Lead Edges Up
Here's our daily composite of the five major national tracking polls. Barack Obama continues to lead John McCain by a healthy margin, with a slight expansion of the lead in today's numbers:
• Gallup: Obama 52%, McCain 43%, with a ±2% margin of error, compared to a 51%-44% Obama lead yesterday.
• Rasmussen: Obama 50%, McCain 46%, with a ±2% margin of error, compared to a 51%-45% Obama lead from yesterday.
• Hotline/Diageo: Obama 47%, McCain 42%, with a ±3.4% margin of error, compared to a 48%-41% Obama lead from yesterday.
• Research 2000: Obama 50%, McCain 42%, with a ±3% margin of error, compared to the 50%-43% Obama lead from yesterday.
• Zogby: Obama 50%, McCain 44%, with a ±2.9% margin of error, compared to a 48%-45% Obama lead yesterday.
Adding these polls together and weighting them by the square roots of their sample sizes, Obama is ahead 50.1%-43.7%, a lead of 6.4 points, compared to the 49.9%-43.9% Obama lead from yesterday.
THIS
October 20, 2008 1:10 PM | Reply | Permalink
IS
October 20, 2008 1:12 PM | Reply | Permalink
EXCELLENT
October 20, 2008 1:14 PM | Reply | Permalink
NEWS
October 20, 2008 1:15 PM | Reply | Permalink
!!!
October 20, 2008 1:16 PM | Reply | Permalink
FOR
October 20, 2008 1:21 PM | Reply | Permalink
McCAIN!
October 20, 2008 1:24 PM | Reply | Permalink
!!
October 20, 2008 1:48 PM | Reply | Permalink
Wow, you all actually pulled it off! Nice work.
October 20, 2008 1:50 PM | Reply | Permalink
0.4% is static. I'm still waiting for the rethug's "October Surprise."
October 20, 2008 1:10 PM | Reply | Permalink
Their October surprise?
They're going to fling poop.
It's no surprise, and they're already doing it. Sad (for them), that's all they've got.
~
October 20, 2008 1:17 PM | Reply | Permalink
I've seen less flinging from McCain here in NM. The last couple tv ads I've seen from him have actually been pretty cordial.
But too little too late, if you ask me. That campaign still leaves a bad taste in my mouth. If he'd been running the campaign that he said he'd run, I wonder how he would have done?
October 20, 2008 1:40 PM | Reply | Permalink
Um....losing North Carolina?
October 20, 2008 4:16 PM | Reply | Permalink
Erik, I may kill you when this is over!
My blood pressure goes up and down up and down with these damn poll results.
So is tightening or widening?
jesus christ on the crack pipe -
October 20, 2008 1:11 PM | Reply | Permalink
It's Widightening.
October 20, 2008 1:15 PM | Reply | Permalink
Zogby said that Obama led by 10 points in the Sunday polling alone, following the Powell endorsement and the Money Bang. Good stuff.
http://pufferfish.typepad.com/
October 20, 2008 1:13 PM | Reply | Permalink
Danny: I really enjoy your website.
October 20, 2008 1:29 PM | Reply | Permalink
Thanks!
October 20, 2008 2:13 PM | Reply | Permalink
Meanwhile, Right Wingers Even Disparage Obama's Endorsement by … GOD!
http://satiricalpolitical.com/?p=4157
October 20, 2008 1:13 PM | Reply | Permalink
Well, I should hope so! God's illegitimate hippie son, Jesus HUSSEIN Christ, is known to have palled around with a bunch of admitted Palestinian troublemakers -- who went around redistributing wealth by handing out free bread 'n fish.
How do ya expect a hard-wurkin' fisherman like Todd to make a buck with commies like that runnin' the show?
October 20, 2008 1:39 PM | Reply | Permalink
Oh!!! I always wondered what the H. stood for in JC's name... What can't ya learn in TPM?
October 20, 2008 1:54 PM | Reply | Permalink
The important thing is that more and more of these are consistently showing Obama at or above 50%. Pretty damn hard to lose that way!
October 20, 2008 1:17 PM | Reply | Permalink
The ideal McCain/Palin supporter:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-4wQfQtpDAc&eurl=
October 20, 2008 1:17 PM | Reply | Permalink
And Google CEO, Eric Schmidt has endorsed Senator Obama. He will be campaigning for him in Florida tomorrow. They will have an economic round table...
I think the media are just trying to keep the race as close as possible.
October 20, 2008 1:24 PM | Reply | Permalink
Socialist!!!!!!!!!!!
October 20, 2008 1:26 PM | Reply | Permalink
Whoa!
Everyone with a brain is endorsing Obama. So of course the Dallas Morning News endorsed McLame.
And I just wrote them the maddest letter I ever wrote them - the spittle was still on the screen when I hit send.
October 20, 2008 1:29 PM | Reply | Permalink
Did they really endorse McCain??? WTF? Then why endorse at all, call for a pass this year. That just makes them look so ridiculous. Glad you wrote them Tena. Do you have a link for the letter to them?
October 20, 2008 1:31 PM | Reply | Permalink
I was completely shocked. I honestly believed they would come to their senses, Amelie.
They didn't.
And they are idiots - Dallas Co. is not a Repug county - just look at the election results for the last 3 elections and you see the numbers shrinking - in '04, the city voted straight Democratic. In '06, the county - the entire county - voted straight Democratic.
'
The stupid DMN published a story the next day that showed that the Democrats were likely to hold Dallas Co. for the next 25 years.
And those fuckwits endorsed McCain. I can't believe it.
October 20, 2008 1:35 PM | Reply | Permalink
And the Columbus Dispatch just endorsed McCain.
Because of all his accomplisments, and the deficit (of course, the Dispatch also endorsed shrub, the creator of those deficits, both times).
The Dispatch is nought but a dumb bunch of pukes.
~
October 20, 2008 1:34 PM | Reply | Permalink
Columbus has to be one of the more liberal places in Mo since it's a college town.
One of my nephews lives there -
Newspapers just are dying to run off that cliff and go out of business I guess. This is so 20th century I can't believe it. I told the DMN that, too - they missed the opportunity of the century to make an historical endorsement and didn't.
Fuckwits.
October 20, 2008 2:07 PM | Reply | Permalink
Doesn't Eric realize the commie socialist will kill jobs with his Marxist Black Liberation Theology beliefs. Sheesh.
October 20, 2008 1:30 PM | Reply | Permalink
I agree with you. Every Republican I know has already resigned himself/herself to the fact that Obama will win and probably by a landslide.
Every newspaper that endorsed Bush in 04, but endorses Obama in 08 clearly spells out the reasons we all know and love:
1. Palin (a category all on her own)
2. Erratic
3. Bad judgment (mostly in choosing Palin)
4. Negative campaign that avoids the real issues Americans care about.
October 20, 2008 1:57 PM | Reply | Permalink
The key at this point is to turn out the vote. If you have time give your local Obama office a hand. Make sure every supporter is called and has a way to the polls. Make sure you and your Obama supporting friends vote early. Avoid the long lines.
October 20, 2008 1:24 PM | Reply | Permalink
I have already voted. What a thrill!
October 20, 2008 1:27 PM | Reply | Permalink
Lucky!
I have never wanted to vote so bad in my life and I really am a prisoner - I'm prisoner of this post office and of the voting officials in Dallas Co. who are sending my ballot.
I'm going to have 40 coronaries before I get that ballot in my hands -
October 20, 2008 1:32 PM | Reply | Permalink
Hopefully you don't have to fly/drive to Dallas on 11/4 to vote!
October 20, 2008 1:35 PM | Reply | Permalink
I can't. I've requested an absentee ballot and once you do that you are stuck in Dallas Co - the most you can do is take that ballot to your precinct on the 4th and turn it in by hand. You cannot vote in person once you ask for an absentee ballot = which is why I dithered for a bit before I requested it.
October 20, 2008 1:38 PM | Reply | Permalink
I didn't know that. Well, hopefully you get it in time. Hell, if you get it just a day before the election, I'd even fork over $15 to you for the Express Mail overnight delivery!
October 20, 2008 1:45 PM | Reply | Permalink
O don't worry - I'm FedExing that puppy back. You actually have until Friday to request an absentee ballot.
I'm still ahead of the deadline - I requested it last Thursday by fax. They refuse to fax a ballot back - I guess they worry that that could lead to something illegal but hell if I know, since other states let you download a ballot from the internet. They can check their fucking records when they get the ballot - I don't know what the big deal is.
But surely it will come in time.
October 20, 2008 2:04 PM | Reply | Permalink
You have a place in Taos and you are registered in Texas?
October 20, 2008 1:46 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yes.
I live in Dallas, which is my legal residence, most of the year. I bought myself a house in Taos where I come in June and stay until winter.
I'm retired and an orphan - my parents are dead and I was an only child. That's how I bought my house - my inheritance is here and thank god it's in something tangible.
October 20, 2008 1:50 PM | Reply | Permalink
Residence, according to Texas election law, is a state of mind. You could actually be having your vote count in New Mexico is there laws are similar to Texas.
October 20, 2008 4:19 PM | Reply | Permalink
When I cast my vote I had to double and triple check the ballot to make sure I connected the lines properly.
October 20, 2008 1:36 PM | Reply | Permalink
My husband want to bring his absentee ballot home to have me check that he really, really DID vote for Obama!
October 20, 2008 1:45 PM | Reply | Permalink
Canvassed for three hours yesterday. It was a beautiful day here, so very few people were home, but we did get solid pro-Obama numbers from the folks we contacted.
Even got a former Republican--said he'd voted Republican all his life up 'til '04--who was excited about the suit Obama's campaign filed on Friday over the voter registration thing.
His take: "I hope the Republican party goes bankrupt trying to fight it."
*That's* entertainment!
October 20, 2008 1:48 PM | Reply | Permalink
The bottom line is that Obama ranges between 48-52% while McCain ranges between 41-46%.
Obama is still ahead.
October 20, 2008 1:25 PM | Reply | Permalink
Did anyone saw the Family guy last night. It was one the best. Stewy was waring a nazi uniform with a McCain/Palin button on the uniform. It was one the most hilarious Family Guy ever...
October 20, 2008 1:29 PM | Reply | Permalink
saw it and that was pretty funny. Didn't the Star Wars episode have a Bush/Cheney sticker on the back of the Star Destroyer too?
October 20, 2008 1:32 PM | Reply | Permalink
Not bad, got to keep working though. Like O said let's run through the finish line.
October 20, 2008 1:35 PM | Reply | Permalink
I don't think the MSM (like CNN in the earlier thread) has an accurate gauge to figure out what's actually going on.
Seeing 100K at the rally in St. Louis on Saturday, that says to me something big's afoot.
October 20, 2008 1:42 PM | Reply | Permalink
We have early voting in Illinois....but I desperately can;t wait to wake up on ELECTION DAY and proudly put on my Obama/Biden long sleeved tshirt and go to my polling place and vote on the actual day. Early voting rocks...but for me there is something marking my ballot on November 4th that fills me with energy and pride.
And coincidentally, this is probably the first ballot I will ever cast that I was 100% confident and proud of the person I am choosing. There is no "lesser of two evils" in my 2008 ballot. I will proudly declare my vote for Barack Obama for decades to come.
Obama/Biden '08
Obama/Biden '12
Sebelius/Kaine '16
October 20, 2008 1:45 PM | Reply | Permalink
I am soooooo looking forward to voting on Nov. 4 too! The national polls may be tightening a little, but that is normal. The real story is in the battleground states, where Obama still holds the advantage. And I agree with you that in this election I will be voting with pride and not for the lesser of two evils. This really s a moment to be proud of!
October 20, 2008 1:58 PM | Reply | Permalink
If you wear an Obama T-shirt to the polling place, make sure you have a jacket, just in case. Some districts this year are planning to enforce laws against wearing political buttons and T-shirts within 100' of a polling place.
So wear your shirt, and wear it proudly, but make sure you have a means to cover it up in case they give you trouble getting in the door.
October 20, 2008 3:06 PM | Reply | Permalink
Agreed. I could vote early, and if California was in doubt I would, but since it's safe I want the magic of voting for Obama on election day.
But for non-safe states: vote early!
October 20, 2008 4:36 PM | Reply | Permalink
O co-sign, with bells on. I love this guy - this is not one of those votes where like you say, you vote because you have to. I'm just dying to vote for him.
October 20, 2008 1:48 PM | Reply | Permalink
Hey, what happened to the Teenage Shotgun Wedding that was supposed to take place before the election?
October 20, 2008 1:57 PM | Reply | Permalink
Someone must have done some focus groups and realized that people did not look kindly on the idea. I mean, come on...even most hard core religionists, in this day and age, don't like the idea of forcing people to marry because they got pregers. That's just so....1950s.
October 20, 2008 2:03 PM | Reply | Permalink
They may be replacing that with Rev. Wright ads.
October 20, 2008 2:03 PM | Reply | Permalink
And that will go over just like Joe the Plumber has.
We already did Rev Wright - thanks to Hillary. That's old news, just like Ayers, which got exactly nowhere.
October 20, 2008 2:10 PM | Reply | Permalink
I hope you're right. I'm really weary of this negative campaigning. It makes be embarrassed to be an American.
I'm with Colin Powell on this one. It does America no good to be calling anyone Muslim, like that is somehow a negative thing. It only harms our already tarnished reputation in the world and further destroys any hope of a standing with Muslims throughout the world.
I don't think I've ever heard of any instances where Bush was criticized by the Muslims world specifically for being a Christian.
October 20, 2008 2:18 PM | Reply | Permalink
I don't care about the tracking. What do the polls from the pro-America parts of the country say?
October 20, 2008 1:59 PM | Reply | Permalink
Obama was just on fire at his speech in Tampa. Wow.
Plus the new state polls out... The whole 'tightening' meme is a joke. After a full weekend of McShame and his Joe the Plumber shtick, and the punditocracy, etc, it looks pretty clear to me that Obama is just starting to hit his stride. I'll be watching Florida, Florida, Florida. :)
October 20, 2008 2:12 PM | Reply | Permalink
Plus Obama has to spend the meeelions of dollars he has piled up. I still don't understand why so much is needed . . .
October 20, 2008 2:40 PM | Reply | Permalink
We have updated our Election Projection Database. There have been some downward or 'tightening' trends as you can see, but I think I attribute that more so to over-bloated projection sites that had Obama higher than he actually was.
http://3bluedudes.com/ProjectDatabase.htm
One moron actually has McCain leading in the electoral vote and we only keep it in the database because people have emailed us and said they enjoy the laugh.
October 20, 2008 3:00 PM | Reply | Permalink
Actually, I just clicked over to that site and they now have Obama/Biden at 286.
October 20, 2008 4:48 PM | Reply | Permalink
So CNN comes out with a poll and TPM reports the race is tightening. Then we get some tracking polls, and suddenly Obama's lead is expanding.
Reminds me of the joke about the guy who went outside to see if the turn signal on his car was working, and said, "It's working. It's not working. It's working. It's not working. It's working. It's not working."
Seriously, if you're going to print every little poll, can you be a little more intelligent about how you interpret them?
October 20, 2008 3:33 PM | Reply | Permalink
Wow, with numbers like this, in I come, back off that window ledge! Yipee!
October 21, 2008 6:32 AM | Reply | Permalink