TPM Track Composite: Obama Up Nearly Eight Points
Here's our daily composite of the four major national tracking polls. The race is in essentially the same place as yesterday, with Barack Obama ahead by a strong margin going into tonight's debate:
• Gallup: Obama 51%, McCain 42%, with a ±2% margin of error, compared to a 50%-42% Obama lead yesterday. This is Obama's widest lead in the Gallup poll for this whole campaign so far.
• Rasmussen: Obama 52%, McCain 44%, with a ±2% margin of error, unchanged from yesterday. This is also Obama's new all-time highest lead in Rasmussen.
• Hotline/Diageo: Obama 46%, McCain 44%, with a ±3.3% margin of error, compared to a 47%-41% Obama lead yesterday. Note: This poll's partisan weighting a few days ago was 41% Dem to 36% GOP, but has been changed to 40% Dem and 38% GOP.
• Research 2000: Obama 52, McCain 41%, with a ±3% margin of error, compared to a 52%-40% lead yesterday.
Adding these polls together and weighting them by the square roots of their sample sizes, Obama is ahead 50.6%-42.8%, compared to a 50.5%-42.1% lead yesterday. John McCain has picked up over half a point, but Obama hasn't actually lost any support -- he may even have gained slightly.
But but Wright! Ayers! Rezko! He's black!
October 7, 2008 1:15 PM | Reply | Permalink
Really? I hadn't heard that. ;-)
October 7, 2008 2:04 PM | Reply | Permalink
That Hotline adjustment of their party ID weighting is inexplicable. +2 Dem. Yeah, right. Even their previous +5 Dem was questionable. Heck, Rasmussen has the Dems at +6 this week.
The even stranger thing with that poll is that it shows Obama and McCain tied on the economy. That's an outlier...not just because I don't believe but because not other poll shows this to be the case...not even close.
Also, the GWU/Battleground was at Obama +7 again today, 50-43.
October 7, 2008 1:15 PM | Reply | Permalink
Who cares about national polls, especially in October? Electoral votes are everything.
October 7, 2008 1:16 PM | Reply | Permalink
Not that Obama's doing badly in that respect, either.
October 7, 2008 1:20 PM | Reply | Permalink
That's what I mean. The states are where the REAL good news is.
October 7, 2008 1:21 PM | Reply | Permalink
Pollster dot com had Obama with 290 electoral votes last night. Its map this afternoon shows him with 320.
October 7, 2008 1:38 PM | Reply | Permalink
Very tough to lose the popular vote by 8% and win in the Electoral College.
October 7, 2008 6:56 PM | Reply | Permalink
McCain-palin tactics and temperament.
.
Dear concerned citizens of America and Mass Media of the U.S.A.
As a concerned registered independent voter, forensic psychiatrist, disabled American I made my decision to vote after taking into consideration following joint tickets attributes and characteristics.
1. Has the ticket shown adequate calmness, coolness, and connectedness's under pressure to lead our nation [Presidential Temperament]?
2. Has the ticket shown sustained sound "Judgment and Caliber"?
3. Has the ticket shown adequate understanding of depth and degree to address the crucial challenges in their their purpose, policies, and positions [ Honesty, integrity and sincerity]?
4. Has the ticket sufficient "understanding and knowledge" of inside Washington workings [Experience]"?
5. Has the ticket reservoir resilience, wisdom, and vigor to address the present and future f our beloved "Great-grand Nation"?
6. Has the ticket enough joint foreign policy experience and exposure based on " Values, Virtues, Vastness, and " [American moral soul]"?
7. Has their campaign talk, slogans, ads, plans, and programs based on facts and are they free of fear, fiction, frivolous labels, unfair attacks, negativity, and impulsively? [No "imminent danger to national
security and safety"].
8. Has the ticket genuinely kept on message of country first and politics last and avoided copying [Message change"]?
9.Has the ticket message stayed away from Culture divide and war[ Disaster prevention ]?
10. Has the ticket resisted being surrounded, supported and surrogate's by divisiveness, distortion's, and destructive characters, [ Real patriotism VS shiftiness and shameless parrot-ism]?
11. Has the ticket thoughtful, real non-partisan, & non-impulsive plans to address our current economic crisis or political tactics and temperamental statements.
I have personally and professionally concluded that OBAMA-BIDEN ticket will lift and inspire our greatgrand nation back to its greatness within and restore our global standing with the use of maximum, firm
international diplomacy and minimal force if and when indicated {" Peace thru Strenght "}.
12. The era of responsibility has to replace irresponsibility and unaccountability will change to accountability and transparency. The Wall Street greed will change to Main Street need.
13. Temperamental and Angry McCain is out to play and create a card mistrust and distress around Obama with the Vail of claim that he will bring bipartisanship in Washington DC. He is destroying him claim every by painting Obama naive. It is tragic, sad, and unfortunate that so called Maverick McCain has already generated a disdain and demeaning face off in the debates and bailout suggestion. Obama is real Presidential and he maintained a smile during the debate and while McCain had a constant grin and disdain towards Obama.
Yours sincerely,
COL. A.M.Khajawall [Ret] MD.
Forensic psychiatrist, Disabled American Veteran and Iraq
Freedom team. Grass roots California leader per Senator McCain's
PS: It is sad and unfortunate that Hon, Temperamental and angry Maverick McCain has changed into bitter rather than better man.
October 7, 2008 1:18 PM | Reply | Permalink
Gallup:
Notice how in their summaries they frame it in the context of how McCain can catch up. Why don't they say something like:
October 7, 2008 1:19 PM | Reply | Permalink
I don't actually fault them for that. "The race changes" is inherently a more interesting possibility than "the race doesn't change" or "the race becomes less likely to change," so I don't think it reveals anything more than the usual chasing the bright shiny object.
October 7, 2008 2:07 PM | Reply | Permalink
Does anyone know if Gallup as an organization has a declared political leaning instead of just a perceived one?
October 7, 2008 1:20 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yeah, you can throw out the Hotline poll. D+2 is a joke. And to say a race is tightning when you've trimmed 3% dems is pathetic.
October 7, 2008 1:20 PM | Reply | Permalink
Totally agree I tend just to look at trends of all the polls but really just look at Gallup and the Rasmussen one.
October 7, 2008 1:26 PM | Reply | Permalink
We have 28 days to go and I'm not counting a single chicken, but somewhere off in the distance I could swear I hear a Fat Lady singing.
PEACE
October 7, 2008 1:28 PM | Reply | Permalink
She's warming up, but it's up to all of us to usher her onto the stage!
October 7, 2008 2:04 PM | Reply | Permalink
Below is some very interesting analysis from the latest ARG (yeah, I know, it's ARG - but the analysis here is good) national poll showing Obama up, 49-45 (same as last week):
"While the national race remains unchanged from a week ago, Barack Obama now leads in 25 states with a total of 316 electoral votes and John McCain leads in 26 states with a total of 222 electoral votes. An additional 4 states are trending to Obama, which would give him a total of 358 electoral votes to 180 for McCain. Obama could gain these additional electoral votes with his national ballot share increasing to just 50%.
Obama is far more efficient in the Electoral College than McCain. Approximately 68% of Obama's national ballot share of 49% comes from states where Obama leads. Approximately 44% of McCain's national ballot share of 45% comes from states where McCain leads. Less than one-third of Obama's votes are wasted in the Electoral College while over one-half of McCain's votes are wasted. McCain would be better off focusing on Florida and Minnesota instead of Iowa and New Mexico because increasing his ballot share in states he is likely to lose does not help him at all in the Electoral College.
Because of McCain's electoral inefficiency, even if McCain were to proportionately increase his national ballot share to 49% for a tie, Obama would still lead with 316 electoral votes. Obama is running a race in the Electoral College while McCain is running a national race."
October 7, 2008 1:38 PM | Reply | Permalink
Obama is running a race in the Electoral College while McCain is running a national race.
Shades of Obama's strategy in the primaries-- running on the best possible strategy given the rules.
October 7, 2008 1:47 PM | Reply | Permalink
It may not matter in the end whether Obama runs a national race or a electoral college race. By the end of this thing, the only swing state left will be Utah.
October 7, 2008 1:55 PM | Reply | Permalink
Interesting analysis, though I would question their suggestion for McCain to focus in Minnesota.
McCain has to do everything he can at this point to keep Ohio and Florida from slipping away.
Do you have the link to this analysis?
October 7, 2008 1:59 PM | Reply | Permalink
(Sigh.) Sad but true. Although there's still Wyoming and Idaho too.
October 7, 2008 2:48 PM | Reply | Permalink
Not to spoil the party but this thing will tighten up before it's all over. It always does. The media doesn't want a blow out they want a close finish so McCains press will get better the closer it gets to election day no matter how bad he runs his campaign. There will be polls in the last week showing McCain ahead.
To those of you in the battle ground states keep working as if your two points down. The side that wins will be the one who does the best job of turning out the vote.
October 7, 2008 3:09 PM | Reply | Permalink