TPM Track Composite: Obama Takes Big Lead In Post-Veep Debate Polls
Here's our daily composite of the four major national tracking polls for today. This is the first day of polls with data taken entirely after the Veep debate -- and Obama's lead just keeps getting bigger:
• Gallup: Obama 50%, McCain 42%, with a ±2% margin of error, compared to a 50%-43% Obama lead yesterday.
• Rasmussen: Obama 52%, McCain 44%, with a ±2% margin of error, compared to a 51%-44% Obama lead yesterday. This is Obama's biggest lead ever in the Rasmussen poll.
• Hotline/Diageo: Obama 47%, McCain 41%, with a ±3.2% margin of error, compared to a 47%-41% Obama lead yesterday.
• Research 2000: Obama 52, McCain 40%, with a ±3% margin of error, unchanged from yesterday.
Adding these polls together and weighting them by the square roots of their sample sizes, Obama is ahead 50.5%-42.1%. Note that Obama is not only up by over eight points, but he has climbed past the 50% mark.
As long as McCain does not rise above the mid forties range, we are in good shape.
My new campaign slogan for old POW POW.
John McCain:
The Original Mav-Erratic.
October 6, 2008 2:55 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'd be short-selling McCain-Palin 2008 right about now.
http://pufferfish.typepad.com/
October 6, 2008 2:57 PM | Reply | Permalink
The McCain/Palin campaign has gone to Congress to ask for a bailout package to help their tumbling stocks on Intrade.
October 6, 2008 3:10 PM | Reply | Permalink
Those damn third graders Palin gave a shout out to have failed McCain yet again!!!
October 6, 2008 2:57 PM | Reply | Permalink
LOL!
So much for the English astrologer who first predicted without any doubt that Hillary would win the primary and then turned around and predicted another very close election, as close as the Election of the Hanging Chads.
October 6, 2008 2:58 PM | Reply | Permalink
I recall the doomsaying PUMA-types who kept repeating "He is unelectable!!!"
Much crow pie will be devoured November 4th, wot wot.
October 6, 2008 3:11 PM | Reply | Permalink
THIS IS EXCELLENT NEWS!! FOR MCCAIN!!!
October 6, 2008 2:58 PM | Reply | Permalink
You betcha, Idiotic. Yup Yup.
October 6, 2008 3:00 PM | Reply | Permalink
On this dark day, your presence is a soothing balm, idiotic.
Thank you for being a steadying factor in these storms.
October 6, 2008 3:01 PM | Reply | Permalink
I swear to God, if the NYT does not run "THIS IS EXCELLENT NEWS!!! FOR MCCAIN!!" as it's 78-point font headline the day after the election, it would be a sin. A sin, I say.
October 6, 2008 3:13 PM | Reply | Permalink
LOL!!!
October 6, 2008 3:15 PM | Reply | Permalink
Dude, don't swear to God. You might bring the wrath of the Alaska Secessionist faithful.
October 6, 2008 3:31 PM | Reply | Permalink
Palin/idiotic '08!
October 6, 2008 6:22 PM | Reply | Permalink
transpose that one, to idiotic/Palin...it would make more sense...
October 7, 2008 9:42 AM | Reply | Permalink
Note to Obama - all it takes is a wink and a debunked talking point to win any election...
Oh wait, nevermind...
October 6, 2008 3:00 PM | Reply | Permalink
A typo. H/D had BigO up 48-41 yesterday.
October 6, 2008 3:02 PM | Reply | Permalink
These numbers would suggest that Palin helped Obama.
And McCain asks "Who is Obama" and sneers about Obama on a day that the Dow is tanking. Life is unfair, indeed.
October 6, 2008 3:02 PM | Reply | Permalink
More excellent news for McCain for today can be found at http://www.juancole.com
Nothing better than some Informed Comment for a brisk taste of reality.
Where does one find a 'holy landslide Batman' t-shirt anyway??
October 6, 2008 3:02 PM | Reply | Permalink
Should be on cafepress in 5...4...3...2...
October 6, 2008 3:06 PM | Reply | Permalink
Juan is taking comments now? When did that happen?
October 6, 2008 3:52 PM | Reply | Permalink
What is the psychology of polls for voters? Will Obama supporters be less likely to vote if he's polling so strongly? Will McCain supporters figure it's a lost cause and not bother voting? Will those two groups cancel each other out come Nov. 4th? Or will McCain voters be more energized to vote because he is behind?
Do folks want to be part of electing a winner, causing undecideds and independents to vote Obama?
Or does the vast majority of voters know nothing about these polling numbers to being with?
October 6, 2008 3:06 PM | Reply | Permalink
The vast majority of people don't have direct, first hand knowledge about these polling numbers, but the political pundits on the TeeVee have been talking about the Obama "surge" for 5 straight days now, so people know who's moved ahead.
I think people like to vote for a winner. They gravitate towards the winning side (I'm referring to the so-called "independents"). Demoralized voters, on the other hand, might think "why bother?" and stay home.
Unless the enthusiasm numbers start to change, I'd predict enthusiastic turnout for Dems, determined turnout (but lower) for Repubs. If Obama keeps widening the gap, I predict those enthusiasm numbers to start differeng, as well.
October 6, 2008 3:12 PM | Reply | Permalink
Hence the importance of a GOTV infrastructure.
October 6, 2008 3:13 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'm no expert on voting psychologyl. But I would think a landslide would be a little like going to a party. You don't want to miss it having "been there."
October 6, 2008 3:21 PM | Reply | Permalink
I think I'll wear my party hat and have a noisemaker on hand.
October 6, 2008 3:29 PM | Reply | Permalink
CT Voter,
Of course she helped him! All she did was give a stump speech and completely ignored Ifill's questions. I used to think the average American was dumb for falling for this crap in the past, but now people are smartening up!
October 6, 2008 3:07 PM | Reply | Permalink
To put some perspective on this: Ras stated that based on their numbers in 2004, neither Bush nor Kerry ever had a +8 lead at any point in the election.
October 6, 2008 3:09 PM | Reply | Permalink
I can't keep swooning - it will lose any punch it ever had.
I just am in a weird place: simultaneously, I can't see any way in hell that McLame can win but I cannot believe we have elected an African American president named Barack Hussein Obama.
Ok, World, step off now - we ain't so bad after all!!!!
October 6, 2008 3:12 PM | Reply | Permalink
Are you joking about taking square roots?
You really did that? I'm so impressed.
October 6, 2008 3:09 PM | Reply | Permalink
It's the correct way to average here.
October 6, 2008 3:23 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'll say this again: law school is full of people who were looking for an advanced degree that did not have a math requirement.
About 2/3ds of us looked at the requirements and said: no math? I'm going to law school.
October 6, 2008 3:36 PM | Reply | Permalink
LOL
October 6, 2008 3:51 PM | Reply | Permalink
Palin's performance reminded me of someone up on stage with Tourette's Syndrome - except the only thing she spewed out were memorized Republican talking points she'd learned days earlier.
It was an embarrassment!! AND very good news for Obama!!
October 6, 2008 3:10 PM | Reply | Permalink
Now remember our words to live by boys and girls: 'NO COMPLACENCY.'
Let us all keep our volunteer efforts going full steam, and for those who lack the time to volunteer and/or the $$$ to contribute, at the very least get to the polls Nov. 4th, even if you have to sneak out of an ICU ward and crawl two miles.
As a Limey/Yank dual-citizen, things are beginning to look like I might just not have to dust off my Brit passport after all. May God grant this trend continues. ;-)
Robert
October 6, 2008 3:13 PM | Reply | Permalink
At this rate Obama will soon be clinging to double digits.
October 6, 2008 3:14 PM | Reply | Permalink
LOLOLOLOLOL!!!!!!
October 6, 2008 3:16 PM | Reply | Permalink
Speaking of clinging, how long til we start hearing about that again? I give it a day.
October 6, 2008 3:16 PM | Reply | Permalink
Hum, CNN is showing video of the Keating 5 scandal whenever they talk about the new Obama versus McCain attacks. But there is no video that ties Obama to Ayers. I really think that McCain misplayed yet another one.
Obama can answer the Ayers thing pretty straight forwardly with an explanation that will seem resonable to anyone but McCain partisans. McCain has to give the old Shawshank Redemeption "We're all innocent in here" excuse to explain his ties to the Keating 5.
October 6, 2008 3:18 PM | Reply | Permalink
Is MSNBC's Norah O'Donnel David Schuster and Contessa Brewer a Democrat? They have been almost giddy these last two weeks. When BO wasnt doing well they came off as a bit bummed out. I am watching Norah right now and she is beaming as she is talking about BO an his EV advantage.
Anyone else notice any tv anchors whose mood seems to change when BO of McCain is up or down?
October 6, 2008 3:24 PM | Reply | Permalink
They may also be reacting to Sarah's trashing of the MSM recently of which they are a part.
October 6, 2008 3:31 PM | Reply | Permalink
My personal opinion only, but I think almost the entire press is secretly in the tank for Obama.
I do - he's so compelling - what a story - what journalist can resist? Plus McLame didn't just bite the hand that fed him, he tore it off.
If you wanted to write a formula for running a terrible campaign, all you'd have to do is use McLame's. The press was his biggest and to me, scariest, ally going into this.
The press loves Barack Obama. I just get that feeling way too strongly to not believe that.
October 6, 2008 3:33 PM | Reply | Permalink
Fixed News (h/t to KO) didn't get the memo.
October 6, 2008 4:03 PM | Reply | Permalink
McCain thinks Ayers is a huge deal because McCain was on the other side of the Ayers ideology at the time. Folks who lived though that time remember it's craziness and probably don't view Ayers in black & White terms as McCain does. Folks of later generations don't care about Ayers in the least.
October 6, 2008 3:33 PM | Reply | Permalink
Totally true, Jonze, IMO.
Those of us who were there at the time really don't care because most of us were on his side. The ones who weren't were the Vietnam hawks and there weren't that many of those when it was all said and done. Those people are either very elderly now, or dead. They were our parents, basically.
Ayers wasn't that big a deal. There were a lot of guys like Ayers running around in the 60s.
October 6, 2008 3:43 PM | Reply | Permalink
Well, I'm a later generation and all I can say is that I'm sick of continually having to re-fight the battles of the '60s over and over and over again.
October 6, 2008 3:43 PM | Reply | Permalink
You're sick of it? Imagine how those of us who thought this shit was settled feel.
I thought choice was settled. I sat through every second of Watergate Hearings - I thought the question of whether the government could spy on us was settled - likewise the question of whether or not the president is above the law. I thought it was over.
I hate rehashing all this.
October 6, 2008 3:54 PM | Reply | Permalink
Obama will go with Mr. Cool persona tomorrow night again. Let McCain sneer and blather while Obama smiles and kills him with kindness all the while pointing McCain's inconsistencies.
Cindy has got to be livid. I'm sure she thought she would be picking out china and crystal beer steins for the White House.
I sure hope Obama's coattails are nice and long and work in Minny.
October 6, 2008 3:20 PM | Reply | Permalink
Plus her portfolio is melting down. No thanks to John.
October 6, 2008 3:22 PM | Reply | Permalink
They will. When the armies canvass for Obama, they are also canvassing and distributing literature and tallying voter sentiment for the Senate and House races running. I'd assume this information will be used to micro target communities with information and will be used in the large GOTV effort this November.
October 6, 2008 3:24 PM | Reply | Permalink
Remind all the young, first time voters, that it does not do any good to just register, and attend rallies, if they do not vote.
We need a big turnout from voters under thirty. In 2004, only 49% of that age group voted. We have to get a 60% voter turnout from them this election.
Also, send your final contribution this week, so that the Obama campaign will know how much they will have available to make their final TV purchases.
Remind all your contacts also. Thanks.
October 6, 2008 3:22 PM | Reply | Permalink
But, Pat Buchanan said that Palin won the debate...?
October 6, 2008 3:22 PM | Reply | Permalink
McShame has really let himself in for it with this Ayers story. Great. I'm sure lots of people have no idea about McCain's involvement in the Keating Five episode. Oh, that old man is gonna be fuming tomorrow night. I hope he goes bonkers during the debate. It won't take much.
October 6, 2008 3:26 PM | Reply | Permalink
Ok I'm claiming a prognostication win here.
Last Thursday I predicted that if Pailin didn't hit a home run, (in other words blow away Biden in the debate), that Obama would net about a two point post-debate bounce.
Well here are the numbers:
Poll Oct 6 Oct 2 Bounce
-------------------------------------
Gallup 50-42 48-43 +3
GWU 50-43 49-44 +2
Hotline Diageo 47-41 47-42 +1
Rasmussen 52-44 51-44 +1
Res. 52-40 51-40 +1
-------------------------------------
Average 1.6
October 6, 2008 3:26 PM | Reply | Permalink
If you can stomach it, HERE is Palin live.
October 6, 2008 3:31 PM | Reply | Permalink
I really can't. She is so pissing me off. I am personally offended that she dare to say anything against Obama. I can't stand it if anyone even says she's pretty. I can't bear the sight of her!
October 6, 2008 3:34 PM | Reply | Permalink
Oh, I don't mind looking at her, even if she is winking at me. Now if only she'd keep her damn pie-hole shut...
October 6, 2008 3:50 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yep.
She his just a hateful bitch riling up the base to "kill him."
I'm sure, she has energized in greater numbers, energized the other side to do whatever it takes to make sure she doesn't get anywhere near 1600 Penn Ave.
I know, a poor doctoral student like me is willing to reach deep in my small pocket, to make sure she doesn't get near the presidency.
October 6, 2008 3:54 PM | Reply | Permalink
With a name like kash??? C'mon... :-)
October 6, 2008 4:11 PM | Reply | Permalink
Disgusting, and reminicent of the bad guys in a Passion Play.
October 6, 2008 7:31 PM | Reply | Permalink
Not even that video of her playing the flute at a beauty contest? It's a bona fide classic!
October 6, 2008 4:08 PM | Reply | Permalink
Look, I have disconnected my TV and disconnected my speakers on my PC, so I don't have to listen to that COW!
October 6, 2008 3:43 PM | Reply | Permalink
CNN has a split screen of a McCain giving a speech live, railing against Obama, and the Dow inderx slowly fluxuating live from -490 to -530. Now Rick Sanchez is reading an e-mail from a viewer slamming the McCain line about "turning the page." Priceless.
I really do wonder if McCain is going to be able to keep himself in check tomorrow night. Especially since this is the town-hall debate. How will it come off if McCain answers every audience question by being a jerk about Obama?
October 6, 2008 3:43 PM | Reply | Permalink
O I hope not - I want to see an eruption that scares the bejesus out of everyone witnessing it.
October 6, 2008 3:49 PM | Reply | Permalink
All across America, when the inevitable eruption comes, let us shout it in unison, "THAR SHE BLOWS!!"
October 6, 2008 4:10 PM | Reply | Permalink
McCain is running on fumes at this point, both politically and physically. His stress level must be at a major high right now, and he's not a young man who can recover quickly. I wouldn't be surprised to see him lose control at the town hall meeting and display some of that infamous temper of his.
October 6, 2008 3:50 PM | Reply | Permalink
From my experience, when a 72 year old man is "running on fumes" it's not pretty and doesn't smell all that nice either.
October 6, 2008 4:22 PM | Reply | Permalink
Intrade: Obama 67, McCain 33
http://www.intrade.com/?request_operation=main&request_type=action&checkHomePage=true
October 6, 2008 3:58 PM | Reply | Permalink
Jeez, PPP says Obama up +6 in NC. This seems so one-sided I admit it makes me nervous, but I wouldn't want it to be any other way either.
Remember folks- donate, voluteer, forward emails to friends, do anything-little or a lot- whatever you can do. We're near the finish line, but we aren't there yet.
October 6, 2008 4:00 PM | Reply | Permalink
This is 100% of where the McCain desperation is coming from because the Rethuglicans are the sorest losers of all time. They will try to polarize or destroy this country rather than let Obama win the election based on the failures of Republican rule.
October 6, 2008 6:24 PM | Reply | Permalink
A heads up - don't put much weight in the CBS/NYT poll. It's down there with Zogby at the bottom of Nate's rankings of the polls:
http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/05/pollster-ratings-v311.html
John
October 7, 2008 2:09 AM | Reply | Permalink
I hope O. shows up with a copy of Rolling Stone tonight. Just the sight of it would make McShit blanche whiter than the ghost that he is.
October 7, 2008 5:51 AM | Reply | Permalink
"Rethuglicans are the sorest losers of all time."
Hell hath no fury like the Rove Gang losing...
Schmidt will be called a winner even if McCain loses, because he was brought in to "save" the campaign, and managed to create a contrived "tie" in the poll numbers during his tenure. If not for Palin's defibrilation of Bush's Base for McCain's sake, the poll numbers would never have crossed paths on their perspective charts.
When it is all over, the Rove Gang meme will become "Well, if Bullet hadn't stepped in when he did, the Obama landslide and it's down-ticket effect, would have started long before it did and would have been worse..."
HYPOCRITES! WHAT A LOAD OF COW MANURE!
The landslide was and is inevitable, and McCain's desperate Rovian tactics (as yet not fully fledged, watch for the worst coming soon to an October near you!) and Machiavellian managers prolonged only the delusion that the Republican rank and file shared, promulgated by the hands of an ad-hungry media.
How unfortunate, if Rove and his gang of liars, cheats, and rabble-rousers (literally) will walk away from this feeling even a little justified. They all should be considering buying a house in Dubai near Kenny Lay's place, the market has softened even there, so maybe some of these wannabe millionaires who do the dirty work for the billionaires will be able to afford a tiny piece of one of those palm fronds...
Here's hoping the 111th understands that the future, pardon-free prosecution of the whole Cheney gang (of which the Rove gang is a very pernicious subset) is not intended for revenge, it is for the purpose of uncovering the truth and making certain it can never happen again.
October 7, 2008 9:40 AM | Reply | Permalink