TPM Track Composite: Obama Holds Steady Lead Over McCain
Here's our daily composite of the five major national tracking polls. Barack Obama is holding on to his big lead over John McCain, which has remained relatively unchanged since the financial meltdown became big news:
• Gallup*: Obama 52%, McCain 44%, with a ±2% margin of error, compared to a 53%-43% Obama lead yesterday.
• Rasmussen: Obama 50%, McCain 45%, with a ±2% margin of error, unchanged from yesterday.
• Hotline/Diageo: Obama 49%, McCain 41%, with a ±3.4% margin of error, compared to a 48%-42% Obama lead from yesterday.
• Research 2000: Obama 52%, McCain 41%, with a ±3% margin of error, unchanged from yesterday.
• Zogby: Obama 48%, McCain 44%, with a ±2.9% margin of error, compared to a 49%-43% Obama lead yesterday.
Adding these polls together and weighting them by the square roots of their sample sizes, Obama is ahead 50.3%-43.3%, a lead of seven points, compared to a 50.6%-43.1% Obama lead from yesterday.
*ed. note: Gallup has begun offering two different sub-samples of likely voters, one using a traditional likely-voter model and the other using a modified likely-voter model for an expected higher turnout. For all our composites and Poll Tracker entries, we will be using that second model under the expectation that newly-registered voters and other factors will contribute to a higher turnout this cycle.
Burning question of the day: Will Obama call McSame by his first name in the debate tonight?
October 15, 2008 1:12 PM | Reply | Permalink
If he thinks it will get under Grandpa Nutz's skin, yes.
October 15, 2008 1:20 PM | Reply | Permalink
Doesn't he usually? I think he finds that it weakens McCain's seniority aura.
October 15, 2008 1:24 PM | Reply | Permalink
He did in the first debate but not the second.
October 15, 2008 4:03 PM | Reply | Permalink
Time/CNN Polls - Colorado: Obama 51 McCain 47
Florida: Obama 51 McCain 46 Georgia: McCain 53 Obama 45 Missouri: McCain 49 Obama 48 Virginia: Obama 53 McCain 43
http://thepage.time.com/
October 15, 2008 1:16 PM | Reply | Permalink
Disappointed in Missouri, but hot damn Virginia!
October 15, 2008 1:20 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'll take a tie in Missouri for a stomping in Virginia ANY day. I think we will get there on Missouri as more Republicans realize that this just isn't their year.
October 15, 2008 1:35 PM | Reply | Permalink
I wouldn't get too down on the MO number. Obama had three good polls there earlier in the week:
+3 Ras
+2 PPP
+8 SurveyUSA
John
October 15, 2008 1:46 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yeah, I know. I wanted to keep up the trend. It's OK.
MO will go for O.
October 15, 2008 1:48 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yeah. St. Louis is going to deliver big time.
http://pufferfish.typepad.com/
October 15, 2008 2:02 PM | Reply | Permalink
There's a second Florida poll out today (Insider Advantage) that has Obama +4, on top of the Time/CNN +5.
Also, Insider Advantage has Obama only 2 points down in West Virginia. Could be worth a rally or two...
October 15, 2008 1:55 PM | Reply | Permalink
Any variation from yesterday's tracking polls would appear to be statistical noise. The next real change might happen the day after tomorrow.
October 15, 2008 1:18 PM | Reply | Permalink
I think things are firming up. I see only limited game-changers at this point, which involve one or the other candidates screwing up. (John McCain, I'm lookin' at you.)
I don't even think the obligatory appearance of Osama bin Laden (ala 2004) will change much. Unlike Kerry, I'm sure that Obama has a ready response for an Obama video. And I think that this would only reinforce the theme that Republicans own the failure to capture him.
October 15, 2008 1:23 PM | Reply | Permalink
Ooops! Obama has a ready response for an Osama video...
(very red face!!!)
October 15, 2008 1:28 PM | Reply | Permalink
Don't worry, it's only intentional hate speech if you are a Republican, for you it's an honest mistake.
October 15, 2008 2:18 PM | Reply | Permalink
I don't see any of your folks *apologizing* for it or correcting it...
October 15, 2008 2:22 PM | Reply | Permalink
SFC -
You're so intellectually bankrupt I don't know where to start. If you were truly part of the military, it makes me scared for this country.
You and your party are in an alternative universe where facts and reality don't matter.
October 15, 2008 3:10 PM | Reply | Permalink
Don't blame him he's just a lifer REMF!
October 15, 2008 3:21 PM | Reply | Permalink
And it's not SFC it's NFC!
October 15, 2008 3:25 PM | Reply | Permalink
By the way, about the handle? Lol!
October 15, 2008 2:43 PM | Reply | Permalink
Thanks. When the server change came, I couldn't log in - it kept saying that I wasn't allowed to post. Musta confused me with fogu2 (!?!)
I had to invent a new persona, you were a little inspiration. Since I'm close to the Twin Cities Prince came to mind - if you remember his glyph phase, he was just called "the artist formerly known as Prince"...
October 15, 2008 3:17 PM | Reply | Permalink
Zogby, keeping the hopes of Fundies alive one crappy poll at a time...
October 15, 2008 1:25 PM | Reply | Permalink
I hate this 24 hour bullshit. Invariably so far I've noticed that the polls move about a tenth of a percent in 24 hours - in other words, no movement.
October 15, 2008 1:30 PM | Reply | Permalink
Agree.
October 15, 2008 1:31 PM | Reply | Permalink
OMG, OMG, OMG, OMG!!!!! Obama's lead is slipping. He needs to . . .
Remember those days?
October 15, 2008 1:32 PM | Reply | Permalink
PARTY FOUL!!!!
http://tpmelectioncentral.talkingpointsmemo.com/2008/10/poll_more_voters_think_mccain.php#comment-3227992
don't hate, celebrate.
:-)
October 15, 2008 1:56 PM | Reply | Permalink
Well, after choking on my coffee this morning about UT being grey on the map and having the reason explained to me ("no data"), I'm taking all polls with a grain of salt. UT went something like 70% for GWB in '04, and if they're claiming that they don't know which way this state's going to jump this year. . .
Although, having said that, the peeking around I've done shows that Obama is polling higher than either Gore or Kerry did. I'm still a lonely minority here, though.
October 15, 2008 2:08 PM | Reply | Permalink
No you aren't alone - this is the biggest margin I've seen in 3 elections.
He's ahead by more than I've seen in years and years and that hasn't change for at least 2 weeks.
This bitch is over -
October 15, 2008 2:12 PM | Reply | Permalink
Please God. . .
October 15, 2008 2:49 PM | Reply | Permalink
"Obama Clings to Landslide Victory"
October 15, 2008 2:40 PM | Reply | Permalink
I hate this new system. I'm sorry, but these fucking "no nodes available to service your request" over and over and over are telling me that tonight is going to be a nightmare. I appreciate the hell out of trying to upgrade - but it didn't improve! Not so far any way.
October 15, 2008 1:34 PM | Reply | Permalink
I agree. I've had a terrible time posting today.
Logging in has gotten better. I wasn't recognized at all the other day, just a loop back to the log in.
Also, I cannot even change my icon, which now doesn't fit in the space and is truncated. That too, has become just a loop back to the log in.
It is a bit frustrating, but I'm sure the bugs will be worked out soon. I hope so.
October 15, 2008 2:02 PM | Reply | Permalink
I was having similar problems (see some of my comments earlier today). I could do anything. Couldn't write blog posts, couldn't change my avatar, couldn't follow people, couldn't log out (!).
I tried 4-5 times to leave a comment to that effect, with node errors, session time outs, and even once where I finished my comment only to realize that the submit button was missing!
But when my complainy comment finally went through, suddenly everything worked for me.
Go figure.
October 15, 2008 2:06 PM | Reply | Permalink
Goddamn I wish that would work for me!
I do hate to bitch, but it's way worse than yesterday, which was bad enough with this 45 second to 1 minute 15 second hang time. Yesterday I wasn't getting the no nodes message over and over. -
October 15, 2008 2:15 PM | Reply | Permalink
Bob Schieffer: And now to both candidates for our final question. Do you have any questions for each other? Senator Obama, we'll start with you.
Obama: Thanks Bob. Well, I've been hearing aaaaaand the American people have been hearing a lot of negative rhetoric on their televisions aaaaaaand in the news recently directed at me. Smears if you will. I would like to ask John, you got somethin' to say to me here or will I be hearing about it from your VP tomorrow?
McCain: [turning red] ughhh [clears throat] Well, listen, [smiling... turning red] I think judgment... um judgment [gritting teeth] is what the American people are looking for in [clears throat] a president and Senator Obama has got [avoiding eye contact with everyone] some questionable - listen. I think that we need to know who [creepy smile] umm is running fro president of the United State of America. The American people [looks down at notes] deserve to know.
Obama: Thought so. Looks like I'm going to hear it from your VP. That's all Bob.
October 15, 2008 1:40 PM | Reply | Permalink
Nice, but you didn't quite get McCain right. He needs a few "my friends" and "maverick"s thrown in there.
October 15, 2008 2:43 PM | Reply | Permalink
And you forgot the faux-oblique reference to his time as a POW.
October 15, 2008 2:55 PM | Reply | Permalink
I heard Michelle will be in the audience with Chuck Hagel's wife tonight at the debate.
October 15, 2008 1:42 PM | Reply | Permalink
I heard that too which is great. Also Hillary Clinton will be at the debate. Bill Clinton will be campaigning in Ohio tomorrow.
October 15, 2008 1:53 PM | Reply | Permalink
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/15/us/politics/15poll.html?hp
NYT:
The McCain campaign’s recent angry tone and sharply personal attacks on Senator Barack Obama appear to have backfired and tarnished Senator John McCain more than their intended target, the latest New York Times/CBS News poll has found.
and
The top reasons cited by those who said they thought less of Mr. McCain were his recent attacks and his choice of Gov. Sarah Palin of Alaska as his running mate.
October 15, 2008 1:57 PM | Reply | Permalink
Lovely to know that sanity is the majority position in the US these days.
October 15, 2008 2:03 PM | Reply | Permalink
After Bush won by a majority in '04, I'll never trust the sanity of the American majority.
Now, if I ever run for office in 30 years, I'm sure this comment will come back to haunt me. ;)
October 15, 2008 3:01 PM | Reply | Permalink
intrade adds up to 101.1%
VOTER FRAUD!!!!
October 15, 2008 2:07 PM | Reply | Permalink
Question, does all of the talk of new Dems registering (including, Mickey Mouse, the 7 year old girl, the Dallas Cowboys in Ohio and the guy in NY that registered 72 times) cause the polling organizations to skew their D vs. R numbers eroneously?
October 15, 2008 2:09 PM | Reply | Permalink
Nice try with that limp talking point.
Show some proof of what you're claiming -
October 15, 2008 2:16 PM | Reply | Permalink
Not really claiming anything...just a question...I've been trying to figure out why ACORN would pump in all the fake registrations...It would be one explaination...another would be to fraudulently pump up their numbers to steal more taxpayer funding...just thinking out loud...
October 15, 2008 2:32 PM | Reply | Permalink
It boils down to people who are getting paid to get registrations creating false registrations. So it is ACORN being defrauded because they are paying for them. ACORN is required by law to turn in all registrations they receive even if they see it is filled out by Mickey Mouse, himself. The majority of bad registrations are pointed by ACORN.
October 15, 2008 2:37 PM | Reply | Permalink
Seems kind of bizarre to be paid to reel in registrations.
October 15, 2008 3:29 PM | Reply | Permalink
The program is seen as means to provide income to people in poverty. I think there are better things to pay them to do. Voting registeration seems to me best left as a volunteer job. Even still, percentage-wise is a small fraction that fill out false registrations.
October 15, 2008 4:20 PM | Reply | Permalink
Is that like trying to fly by flapping your arms?
October 15, 2008 2:37 PM | Reply | Permalink
LOL!
October 15, 2008 2:59 PM | Reply | Permalink
Lots of real and lame reasons, none of which have to do with voter fraud. Many people hired by ACORN simply fill out forms themselves since they are paid by the application. Its fraudulent but perpetrated mostly on ACORN.. Think out if as a blue collar version of Rick Davis getting paid $15K a month by Freddie Mac for his "access" to John McCain.
October 15, 2008 2:39 PM | Reply | Permalink
Think out if as a blue collar version of Rick Davis getting paid $15K a month by Freddie Mac for his "access" to John McCain.
I just love this analogy so much, it bears repeating.
October 15, 2008 3:33 PM | Reply | Permalink
Percentage-wise, I think it would take a lot of Goofys, Donald Ducks, and Huey, Dewey, and Louies to actually make a dent either way.
I haven't looked at the numbers (so you can discount my opinion right now), but I would imagine that these aberrations don't matter.
October 15, 2008 3:13 PM | Reply | Permalink
Well, if thinking that gets you through the night, go for it.
October 15, 2008 2:17 PM | Reply | Permalink
Make's no phuckin' difference -- McLame is TOAST.
The only remaining question is whether we'll reach 60 in the Senate -- without Traitor Joe.
October 15, 2008 2:21 PM | Reply | Permalink
SFC, my rumors tell me that Romo registered in Vegas and that on election day he will show up at the polls then shoot craps with McCain at jerry Jones's table. Mickey is for Nader. Something about once owning a Corvair.
October 15, 2008 2:30 PM | Reply | Permalink
What polling organizations base their party i.d. weightings on voter registration info?
October 15, 2008 2:30 PM | Reply | Permalink
I have no idea....that's why I posed the question. I know a lot of y'all say stuff like Zogby's not right, he's showing to high of a Republican % and I assume it's based on changes in registration numbers.
October 15, 2008 2:40 PM | Reply | Permalink
There have been over 3.5 million new registration across the country. Only a tiny fraction of these (which do not include the Mickey Mouse ones that get caught) are actually fake.
October 15, 2008 2:48 PM | Reply | Permalink
Try this on for size;
http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/
October 15, 2008 2:55 PM | Reply | Permalink
From what I've read, most party id weighting is based on previous election exit polls. Some others seem to have some weird magic formula including rolling averages from previous polls, but I haven't come across anyone that says their polls are based on registration info. I'm not sure how that would work anyway since many states do not require any affiliation to register (like GA).
Everyone who has responded to you is correct...this ACORN problem seems to be due to people being paid by the number of registrations they bring in....thus, the incentive to fake them. This is "registration fraud", not a "voter fraud". I'll be concerned about "voter fraud" when Mickey Mouse and Harry Potter show up to vote.
October 15, 2008 2:55 PM | Reply | Permalink
The vast majority of the new registrations have been Democratic. In any case, Zogby's name is mud with many of us because he's the guy who very publically picked Kerry the night before the election in '04. He later admitted had no data to speak of, but just thought he smelled movement toward Kerry in Florida there at the last. He is not transparent about his methodology, but admits to doing a lot of tweaking of his own data based on his presumed knowledge from his background as a historian.
October 15, 2008 3:15 PM | Reply | Permalink
It could be that their numbers are skewed erroneously by fraudulent registrations, but I seriously doubt that "all of the talk" is a causative factor. Does all of the talk of you being a republican tool who can't think on his feet make you one?
October 15, 2008 2:32 PM | Reply | Permalink
Although his campaign hasn't made any statements McCain will not be running any ads in Wisconsin as of next week. So one by one these battleground states are being ceded to Obama.
I'm also hearing that Obama is even with McCain in Arkansas hence the visit there today by Hillary.
October 15, 2008 2:14 PM | Reply | Permalink
Insider Advantage West Virginia Poll:
McCain 49 Obama 47
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/RCP_PDF/IA_WestVa_101508.pdf
October 15, 2008 2:21 PM | Reply | Permalink
I"ll say this again: realclearpolitics.com is a winger site.
October 15, 2008 2:26 PM | Reply | Permalink
When you are only down two in West Va. you still have a mouthful.
October 15, 2008 2:34 PM | Reply | Permalink
Agreed - he was up the other day - both there and in Mo.
the only thing that changes in 24 hours is how the fucking numbers are added up when the new shift comes on.
At least that's how I see it.
October 15, 2008 2:37 PM | Reply | Permalink
My reference was purely dental.
October 15, 2008 2:42 PM | Reply | Permalink
My reference was purely dental.
October 15, 2008 3:05 PM | Reply | Permalink
Okay, I've been gone most of the day...what the hell is going on with this site? The pages are taking forever to load and everytime I post I get a HTML 500 error.
This doesn't bode well for the debate tonight.
October 15, 2008 3:05 PM | Reply | Permalink
I find it very interesting that CNN's own poll has Obama with a lead of 10% in VA but continues to show VA as a toll-up on its electoral map. Given that Obama already has 264 it's pretty clear they don't yet have the stones to post an EC map that shows Obama with enough votes to win. As Hillary (Amy) said on SNL – grow a pair.
October 15, 2008 3:08 PM | Reply | Permalink
Wow, you must have some sway over there. I just went to CNN.com and they now have VA in Obama's column, bringing him to 277 EV.
October 15, 2008 4:23 PM | Reply | Permalink
The only way Zogby can get a 4 point lead for Obama is either he's lying or he's an idiot. His own internals say that Obama has a 9 point lead among party faithful and nearly a 30 point advantage among the independents. He has to be oversampling republicans by a ridiculously huge margin.
October 15, 2008 3:35 PM | Reply | Permalink
Both CNN and MSNBC are giving Obama 264 electoral votes so you'll keep tuning in. Gosh, we are so dumb. We really think it's going right down to the wire. Thanks MSM!
October 15, 2008 4:12 PM | Reply | Permalink
RNC drops Ads in LA, Wisconsin and Maine...They are definitely hurting for CASH!
October 15, 2008 4:54 PM | Reply | Permalink