TPM Track Composite: Obama Has Big Lead, But Possibly Narrowing
Here's our daily composite of the five major national tracking polls. Going into last night's debate, Barack Obama's big lead over John McCain may have been narrowing a bit, though he was still solidly ahead:
• Gallup*: Obama 51%, McCain 45%, with a ±2% margin of error, compared to a 52%-44% Obama lead yesterday.
• Rasmussen: Obama 50%, McCain 46%, with a ±2% margin of error, compared to a 50%-45% Obama lead from yesterday.
• Hotline/Diageo: Obama 49%, McCain 41%, with a ±3.4% margin of error, unchanged from yesterday.
• Research 2000: Obama 52%, McCain 41%, with a ±3% margin of error, unchanged from yesterday.
• Zogby: Obama 49%, McCain 43%, with a ±2.9% margin of error, compared to a 48%-44% Obama lead yesterday.
Adding these polls together and weighting them by the square roots of their sample sizes, Obama is ahead 50.3%-43.7%, a lead of 6.6 points, compared to the 50.3%-43.3% Obama lead from yesterday. Two days ago, Obama's composite lead was 50.6%-43.1%.
Remember that this polling was all done before last night's debate, so it doesn't tell us about the post-debate environment. Instead, it gives us a baseline against which we can measure the changes in the coming days.
*ed. note: Gallup has begun offering two different sub-samples of likely voters, one using a traditional likely-voter model and the other using a modified likely-voter model for an expected higher turnout. For all our composites and Poll Tracker entries, we will be using that second model under the expectation that newly-registered voters and other factors will contribute to a higher turnout this cycle.
Will Drrudge start using Gallup again? Zogby seems to be going the other way so no wonder he didn't leak their numbers on his website last night.
October 16, 2008 1:15 PM | Reply | Permalink
0.6% = "possibly narrowing"? How about "not statistically significant"?
October 16, 2008 1:17 PM | Reply | Permalink
Word. I'd have known Eric wrote this without even a by line.
October 16, 2008 1:41 PM | Reply | Permalink
Hey! What kind of a crack is that?
October 16, 2008 2:04 PM | Reply | Permalink
The Real Eric returns from vacation.
John
October 16, 2008 4:02 PM | Reply | Permalink
Some definite tightening at the national level. Don't like the Rasmussen shift since it's been so stable - this is the first time McCain broke 45 in over 20 days in that poll. Obama under 50 in two of the three Gallup groups. I think Obama's ceiling is about 52 so I expect that any moves we see between now and election day will be towards McCain. I'll be more than happy with a 52-47 or 51-48 popular vote win on election day...or even a 50-49 win. I'll start getting worried when I start to see a real shift downward in Obama's percentages, both in national and state polls. That hasn't happened in quite some time in any of these polls - most of the significant movement has been McCain either up or down or folks moving back to undecided. I think a lot of McCain gains are due to conservative holdouts finally conceding that they have to vote for the guy, even though they don't like him.
State polls still very favorable to Obama. They tend to trail the national polls. Let's see what they look like next week.
Question is - how much movement will the debate cause?
October 16, 2008 1:17 PM | Reply | Permalink
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Variance
October 16, 2008 2:05 PM | Reply | Permalink
Can't wait to see how this changes after the debate.
We are drinking John McCain's milkshake; we are drinking it up!
October 16, 2008 1:17 PM | Reply | Permalink
Why does a movement of 0.3% matter?
You are pretending that because you are combining several samples that somehow there is miraculously no sampling variation. That's beyond stupid.
October 16, 2008 1:17 PM | Reply | Permalink
margin of error. nothing more.
October 16, 2008 1:41 PM | Reply | Permalink
The problem is that Eric thinks that because he is averaging the samples there is no sampling error. He got this idea from CNN poll of polls which says "there is no margin of error". What CNN should have written is the margin of error is too complicated for us to calculate so we won't report any. Eric is just parroting. I guess he is on Chris Matthews tire swing (you know say anything to make it seem like this race is neck and neck because we need the attention).
What we have is possible random error, possible movement in underlying trends. There is absolutely no way to tell which is which in such small movements. That's the point. All Eric has to do is not be an idiot. Just transcribe the results and stop telling stories.
Maybe it would help if he showed us the five day moving average or something.
October 16, 2008 2:26 PM | Reply | Permalink
The more polls, the more error. To think there is less error is like saying that if you took the mortgages that had a certain risk and pooled them altogether, the result had no risk. We now know how false that assumption was. Thus, we can expect these pooled and weighted polls to have a certain error margin.
Hope that helps!
October 16, 2008 3:49 PM | Reply | Permalink
It's probably narrowing. But after last night's debate, it's probably going to widen again.
Can I ask a question?
Are you emphasizing the actual percentages that each candidate winds up with, or the gap between them? You say Obama has a lead of 6.6 points, compared to....yesterday's percentages, not the gap. Wouldn't it be more meaningful to compare today's gap with yesterday's gap?
October 16, 2008 1:17 PM | Reply | Permalink
Just like Obama himself -- Big guy but skinny as a rail.
October 16, 2008 1:21 PM | Reply | Permalink
It was this way before debate number 1 and 2. McCain's natural movement should be towards Obama as the race tightens near the end. But then every time he goes on TV and talks he prevents that from happening!
October 16, 2008 1:31 PM | Reply | Permalink
Thank you!
Since Tena's not here, I'll say it: stop panicking!
10 points up in the polls is ridiculous and dangerous. A tight lead of five points or less keeps people enthused, working hard and determined to vote.
Bonus: If McShame, Bible Spice and the repugs get fooled by narrowing polls into thinking they might actually win, how much sweeter will it be Election night when Obama clears 400 EV?
October 16, 2008 1:35 PM | Reply | Permalink
After last night... I think we should all be calm, just like our guy.
And now's the time to get out and spend every free minute working to make sure everyone votes and we do all we can to make sure they vote OBAMA.
October 16, 2008 1:40 PM | Reply | Permalink
Who's panicking? Seriously? Pointing out that the composite tracking appears to be slightly tighter is "panicking"?
As for this:
Since Barack Obama isn't here, I'll be the one to say "Stop being so damn cocky!". Nothing's won.
October 16, 2008 1:45 PM | Reply | Permalink
Uh, maybe the headline author? Everyone else seems to have a pretty firm grip.
October 16, 2008 1:49 PM | Reply | Permalink
"Possibly narrowing" is now panicking? Honestly, this kind of groupthink doesn't help anyone. Let conservatives stick their fingers in their ears and pretend the polls are made up. I'd prefer Eric call it like it is, and today that means pointing out that Obama's lead has eroded somewhat over the past few days.
October 16, 2008 2:29 PM | Reply | Permalink
Thank you!
Since Tena's not here, I'll say it: stop panicking!
10 points up in the polls is ridiculous and dangerous. A tight lead of five points or less keeps people enthused, working hard and determined to vote.
Bonus: If McShame, Bible Spice and the repugs get fooled by narrowing polls into thinking they might actually win, how much sweeter will it be Election night when Obama clears 400 EV?
October 16, 2008 1:50 PM | Reply | Permalink
Apologies for double post - got error message so re-submitted.
October 16, 2008 1:52 PM | Reply | Permalink
Obama won't stand a chance once I hit the trail with BigMac and SarahBaby!
October 16, 2008 1:33 PM | Reply | Permalink
hey, that's my handle.
October 16, 2008 1:50 PM | Reply | Permalink
Looks like more of the undecideds are deciding. But, yeah, like others say, it's not really a big change.
October 16, 2008 1:35 PM | Reply | Permalink
Just got back from the dentist. The woman who cleaned my teeth, not usually interested in politics, watched the debate last night for some reason she can't even explain.
But, all by herself, she concluded Obama is for her. She decided "the whole atmosphere around mcCain" was not something she wanted to be associated with. And she got sick of Joe the Plumber! She felt "Obama had an answer for everything." And "he was just so calm." But mcCain seemed angry to her, always complaining about Obama's ads (which hadn't seemed at all negative to her).
Another Obama convert! And clearly a previously undecided voter.
Yay!
October 16, 2008 1:37 PM | Reply | Permalink
"...she got sick of Joe the Plumber!
How can she get sick of what she ain't had?
October 16, 2008 1:40 PM | Reply | Permalink
I have a feeling this will tighten up as we move toward the election week. This is not over yet. I'm not worried but it's likely Obama will have a lead of 5 points on the morning of Nov 4, rather than 10.
October 16, 2008 1:43 PM | Reply | Permalink
but when you factor in early voting what do you get? (Probably a headache.) ;)
October 16, 2008 1:46 PM | Reply | Permalink
A serious headache.
One of Keith Olberman's guests on...Tuesday, I believe...had an interesting take on polls. Which made me appreciate how assinine all the discussion about poll numbers truly is.
Her argument was this: It's not good for Obama to be up by 13 points because....wait for it....white people will then decide "Oh, he's going to win anyway, and I can safely vote for the white guy"....
This was an African American commentator. First time I've heard someone advance the argument that a big lead for Obama was, in fact, not a good thing at all.
Second, if a white commentator made similar remarks about African American voters, how would people have reacted?
October 16, 2008 1:53 PM | Reply | Permalink
Wow. Maybe I'm naive, but that argument seems like a reductio ad absurdam to me. And some very, very flawed logic.
I'm concerned about polls vs. reality, of course, and I'll be nervous about the outcome of the election until I know what it is. (God willing, I won't be more nervous after I know what it is.) But if there are any white Obama supporters who are only voting for him because he's the underdog and who would be relieved to be able to vote for the white guy after all, I sure as hell haven't encountered them yet.
October 16, 2008 2:48 PM | Reply | Permalink
What I mean to say is there is a lot of "this is over," mentality I sense this morning and I don't think its true.
October 16, 2008 1:59 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'm more amused at the 10% that haven't made up their mind yet! They probably consider themselves Independents, think all the debates ended in a tie, think both or neither candidates represent their views, and that they can't get any meat or depth during the debate! This is one of the most indecisive groups in all of humanity! There is no meat BECAUSE of them! It pisses me off that politicians cater to this group, but angers me even more that this group usually decides elections. If after all of this campaigning and the last 8 years of your life, you really aren't sure who you are voting for, there are bigger battles to be fought than deciding who to vote for... But it should start there.
October 16, 2008 2:04 PM | Reply | Permalink
The Gallup number up top is wrong :
Gallup Daily: Obama 49%, McCain 43%
October 16, 2008 2:04 PM | Reply | Permalink
IT'S NARROWING!
Really, it could be narrowing.
What does this mean?
It means you have to get your asses out and work for a LANDSLIDE!
October 16, 2008 2:06 PM | Reply | Permalink
IT'S NARROWING!
Really, it could be narrowing.
What does this mean?
It means you have to get your asses out and work for a LANDSLIDE!
October 16, 2008 2:07 PM | Reply | Permalink
The Gallup number up top is wrong :
Gallup Daily: Obama 49%, McCain 43%
October 16, 2008 2:08 PM | Reply | Permalink
Read the footnote.
October 16, 2008 2:24 PM | Reply | Permalink
Is the sky falling yet?
October 16, 2008 3:54 PM | Reply | Permalink
Forget the pollsters, follow the money.
One Irish bookmaker has already called it for Obama:
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601102&sid=aFfie8dEVE6Y
In solidarity with this kind of thinking I may indulge myself with a pint of Guinness tonight. (And then back to canvassing this weekend).
October 16, 2008 4:36 PM | Reply | Permalink
http://www.gallup.com/poll/111124/Gallup-Daily-Likely-Voters-Traditional.aspx
Obama: 49
McCain: 47
October 16, 2008 4:44 PM | Reply | Permalink
Uh-oh. John McCain is on a roll now. Just ask Joe Lieberman.
Put down the crack pipe, Joe.
October 16, 2008 5:15 PM | Reply | Permalink
They're soulmates. John looked into his eyes and saw nine letters: B-U-T-T-B-U-D-D-Y.
October 17, 2008 7:35 AM | Reply | Permalink