TPM Track Composite: Obama Ahead By More Than Eight Points
Here's our daily composite of the six major national tracking polls. Barack Obama's lead just keeps getting bigger:
• Gallup: Obama 52%, McCain 44%, with a ±2% margin of error, compared to a 52%-42% Obama lead yesterday.
• Rasmussen: Obama 51%, McCain 45%, with a ±2% margin of error, compared to a 50%-46% Obama lead from yesterday.
• ABC/Washington Post: Obama 54%, McCain 43%, with a ±2.5% margin of error, compared to a 53%-44% Obama lead yesterday.
• Hotline/Diageo: Obama 47%, McCain 42%, with a ±3.4% margin of error, compared to a 47%-41% Obama lead from yesterday.
• Research 2000: Obama 51%, McCain 41%, with a ±3% margin of error, compared to a 50%-42% Obama lead from yesterday.
• Zogby: Obama 52%, McCain 42%, with a ±2.9% margin of error, compared to a 50%-42% Obama lead yesterday.
Adding these polls together and weighting them by the square roots of their sample sizes, Obama is ahead 51.3%-43.1%, a lead of 8.2 points, compared to the 50.5%-43.1% Obama lead from yesterday.
Yeah, keep the robo-slime coming, McLame. It's working wonders!
October 22, 2008 5:22 PM | Reply | Permalink
An interesting tidbit - the poll of polls was right in every state in 2004 except for Wisconsin. They had Bush up by .9.
October 22, 2008 5:24 PM | Reply | Permalink
THIS IS EXCELLENT NEWS For... aww shoot. Rick? Bring me Palin so I can blame someone.....
October 22, 2008 6:10 PM | Reply | Permalink
I guess ole Punchy was a thing of the Primaries....time for me to move on to a new skin, I suppose.
October 23, 2008 12:42 AM | Reply | Permalink
I am confused, the pundits keep saying the race is getting closer...
Can someone please explain to me why the race is widening?
October 22, 2008 5:26 PM | Reply | Permalink
9 daily tracking polls show a large and ever-widening Obama lead.
Then, one poll, a one-off AP poll no less, shows a 1-pt Obama lead.
Guess which one the so-called 'liberal media' pay attention to?
October 22, 2008 5:33 PM | Reply | Permalink
It's a farce. I really wish TPM would help us and make the AP story a headline here. The survey of "likely" voters had a sampling where 44% of those surveyed were evangelical born-again Christians!! It was an intentional ploy to make a story that it is close.
October 22, 2008 9:47 PM | Reply | Permalink
Oooh -- very crafty, John!
You got him right where ya want him even mucher.
...huh?
October 22, 2008 5:28 PM | Reply | Permalink
Any word on whether that new AP poll came with sprinkles on top?
October 22, 2008 5:29 PM | Reply | Permalink
The reason why the AP poll is off is because of their likely voter method. Take a look at 538's take on poller's likely voter methods. http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/10/some-likely-voter-models-are-suspect.html
October 22, 2008 5:31 PM | Reply | Permalink
It was also WAY off because it had the balls to have 44% of its sample be people self-identified as born again/evangelical.
Gotta tell you, if McCain isn't even winning a fucked up poll that has nearly half its sample as born agains, he is some deep shit...
October 22, 2008 5:36 PM | Reply | Permalink
You can also add in the regional breakdown to this screwed up poll
REGION:
Total Respondents Likely Voters
Northeast 19 21
Midwest 22 23
South 36 34
West 23 21
Based on: N=1,101 N=800
October 22, 2008 6:09 PM | Reply | Permalink
Thanks. Here's a little more on that:
http://www.americablog.com/2008/10/new-flawed-ap-poll-claims-mccain-and.html
So I guess the answer to my question is "Yes", the poll came with born-again Christians sprinkeled on top - just the way McCain likes 'em!
October 22, 2008 7:53 PM | Reply | Permalink
Analytical bitch-slapping is so sexy.
October 22, 2008 5:51 PM | Reply | Permalink
12 polls to a box.
October 22, 2008 5:44 PM | Reply | Permalink
Two words. COLIN POWELL.
October 22, 2008 5:39 PM | Reply | Permalink
POW! ELL.
October 22, 2008 7:10 PM | Reply | Permalink
Took my own early ballot right on into County Elections HQ today and dropped it in the box! My wife's, too.
Two more in the bank, baby.
October 22, 2008 5:47 PM | Reply | Permalink
All good, but . . . got to keep the heat on!
October 22, 2008 5:54 PM | Reply | Permalink
No doubt. The margin will affect the post-election spin.
October 22, 2008 6:00 PM | Reply | Permalink
Not to mention the ability to govern, the size of the congressional majority he has to work with, and so forth.
October 22, 2008 6:18 PM | Reply | Permalink
Truth.
October 22, 2008 10:27 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yep. Canvassing on Friday.
October 22, 2008 6:04 PM | Reply | Permalink
"A vote for John McCain is a wasted vote."
- Bob Barr
http://www.swamppolitics.com/news/politics/blog/2008/10/bob_barr_mccains_farewell_tour.html
...pass it on,
LK
October 22, 2008 6:15 PM | Reply | Permalink
Supposedly an Obama internal poll has PA only a 2-point lead. That would be bad news if true.
http://briefingroom.thehill.com/2008/10/22/report-obama-internal-poll-shows-two-point-race-in-pennsylvania/
October 22, 2008 6:33 PM | Reply | Permalink
Good, I like Dem's panicking or mad. One or the other makes us give money or not get complacent.
October 22, 2008 7:09 PM | Reply | Permalink
Dude. He is a conservative talk show host. Can anyone here honestly say that Axelrod and Obama have made any major mistakes in this election cycle? The answer is no. If the Obama internals were 2, he'd be in PA the Saturday after visiting his grandmother. These guys don't make big mistakes. If there was any memo, it is probably from early September.
The final spread in PA will be in Obama's favor by 8 points.
October 22, 2008 7:25 PM | Reply | Permalink
In terms of an Obama internal poll of PA, I doubt very seriously that that poll is real because of 2 reasons: The Obama camp NEVER leaks and if this was indeed the case than Biden would be parked right now in Pennsylvania. Instead Biden is going to North Carolina tomorrow.
October 22, 2008 6:39 PM | Reply | Permalink
Thomas Andrews: The pumps will buy you time, but minutes only. From this moment on, no matter what we do, Titanic will founder.
Ismay: But this ship can't sink!
Thomas Andrews: She is made of iron, sir. I assure you, she can. And she will. It is a mathematical certainty.
October 22, 2008 6:41 PM | Reply | Permalink
Wow, just saw Chris Matthews on Hardball just obliterate Nancy Ptfenhauer (sp) on the Palin lack of knowledge on VP responsibilities and the constitution. All she could do was shake her head.
October 22, 2008 7:18 PM | Reply | Permalink
Just curious. The poll tracking graphic says Obama at 49.8. Your poll tracker says 51.3. These figures are offent different and further, the graphic often changes by the hour. Nitpicking minds want to know: What's going on? Are these two databases the same? Does the difference have to do with the weighing of the polls by sample size?
October 22, 2008 8:23 PM | Reply | Permalink
I experimented some more with Google Insights for Search. I took a 3-day time span's interest in the candidates and split it out by state and by a small number of top cities where Google-activity was the highest. Very interesting stuff! See it at my Word Face-Off blog.
October 22, 2008 10:07 PM | Reply | Permalink
I experimented some more with Google Insights for Search. I took a 3-day time span's interest in the candidates and split it out by state and by a small number of top cities where Google-activity was the highest. Very interesting stuff! See it at my Word Face-Off blog.
October 22, 2008 10:09 PM | Reply | Permalink
HEY, TPM! Are you going to help us all call out the AP on this bogus POLL??? PLEASE!!!
http://www.talkingpointsmemo.com/talk/blogs/mk3872/2008/10/do-not-fall-for-this-bogus-ap.php
October 22, 2008 10:17 PM | Reply | Permalink
Three words:
Landslide.
The CYA leaks are starting. The scurrying sound of rats running for the exit. Look for Gov. Moose in Bismark next week.
October 23, 2008 12:04 AM | Reply | Permalink
Today's Zogby has Obama up 12%
http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=1605
(sorry I don't know how to insert the link)
October 23, 2008 1:02 AM | Reply | Permalink