TPM Track Composite: Obama Ahead By Over Seven Points
Here's our daily composite of the five major national tracking polls. Barack Obama's lead may have contracted slightly since yesterday -- but the overall difference is very small, and he remains well ahead:
• Gallup: Obama 50%, McCain 43%, with a ±2% margin of error, compared to a 51%-42% Obama lead yesterday.
• Rasmussen: Obama 51%, McCain 45%, with a ±2% margin of error, compared to a 52%-45% Obama lead from yesterday.
• Hotline/Diageo: Obama 49%, McCain 41%, with a ±3.4% margin of error, compared to a 50%-40% Obama lead yesterday.
• Research 2000: Obama 53%, McCain 40%, with a ±3% margin of error, compared to a 52%-40% Obama lead from yesterday.
• Zogby: Obama 49%, McCain 43%, with a ±2.9% margin of error, compared to a 48%-44% Obama lead yesterday.
Adding these polls together and weighting them by the square roots of their sample sizes, Obama is ahead 50.4%-42.8%, a lead of 7.6 points, compared to a 50.8%-42.5% Obama lead yesterday.
Late Update:Gallup has begun offering two different sub-samples of likely voters, one using a traditional likely-voter model and the other using a new model that has been modified for an expected higher turnout. We will be using that second model, under the expectation that newly-registered voters and other factors will contribute to a higher turnout this cycle. Plugging today's Gallup results for likely voters -- Obama 51%, McCain 45% -- into our calculations yields a revised composite of Obama 50.7%, McCain 43.2%. We'll be switching over to that likely-voter number in our composites from now on.
THIS....
October 12, 2008 1:17 PM | Reply | Permalink
IS
October 12, 2008 1:19 PM | Reply | Permalink
EXCELLENT
October 12, 2008 1:25 PM | Reply | Permalink
NEWS
October 12, 2008 1:27 PM | Reply | Permalink
FOR
October 12, 2008 1:28 PM | Reply | Permalink
BIBLE SPICE/OLD SPICE 2008!
October 12, 2008 1:29 PM | Reply | Permalink
ARRAKIS SPICE 08!
Let the Spice flow--Drill Baby Drill!
October 12, 2008 1:48 PM | Reply | Permalink
Watch out for sand worms!
October 12, 2008 3:10 PM | Reply | Permalink
BUT...
October 12, 2008 1:28 PM | Reply | Permalink
MCCAIN!
October 12, 2008 1:29 PM | Reply | Permalink
Who?
October 12, 2008 1:55 PM | Reply | Permalink
George Wallace 2.0
http://pufferfish.typepad.com/
October 12, 2008 1:58 PM | Reply | Permalink
Tiny fractional changes are very likely within the margin of error.
To me the most notable thing is the finding in the internals of the R2K poll that Obama continues to widen his lead among voters over 60. McShame has long had a lead in that group. But about 10% of them moved from mcShame to undecided last week. And in the past few days that group has shrunk and Obama received the vast majority of the over 60 undecided voters.
Except for whites, Obama leads in every group. Every age group. And both sexes. Since white people seem to be all that mcShame has left, he has lost any shred of decency and is making a play for white racists.
I find this disgusting. mcShame you are so low, you simply can't get much lower. You've joined worms underground - you're now eating dirt, not just excreting it.
October 12, 2008 1:31 PM | Reply | Permalink
Thera - Cuban American Republicans have turned to Obama.
I am totally gobsmacked over that one -
October 12, 2008 1:33 PM | Reply | Permalink
The only place mcShame muck seems to stick anymore is with wacked out whites. The so-called WOW factor!
October 12, 2008 1:35 PM | Reply | Permalink
They've now seen McSame's erratic behavior for themselves. And they know what that means.
October 12, 2008 2:03 PM | Reply | Permalink
When I see McCain's numbers drop below the big four zero, I may start to take an interest.
October 12, 2008 2:44 PM | Reply | Permalink
So the polls moved 4/10ths of a percent in 24 hours?
Am I right about that number? Mostly numbers kind of bounce off the outside of my head -
October 12, 2008 1:31 PM | Reply | Permalink
That's not a move. That's a statistical factor. It's surely within the margin of error. Margin of error just means that in any particular sample, poll, whatever, there is a chance that a different sample on the same day might yield slightly different data. No biggie!
October 12, 2008 1:33 PM | Reply | Permalink
What Thera said. And remember, Eric has this tendency to put it as if there were something when there is nothing statistically significant :P
October 12, 2008 1:36 PM | Reply | Permalink
Thanks - that was what I thought and kind of what I meant.
I think these 24 poll checks are a little useless anyway - but a lot of people like polls, so my opinion is strictly personal!
October 12, 2008 1:37 PM | Reply | Permalink
At this point, I'm more concerned about numbers from the battlegrounds.
October 12, 2008 1:43 PM | Reply | Permalink
Obama up by 12 in Muhlenberg's PA tracking poll...Yesterday.
October 12, 2008 1:57 PM | Reply | Permalink
PA isn't a battleground, its solid Obama, the MSM just doesn't want to admit it.
October 12, 2008 2:02 PM | Reply | Permalink
Neither do the Obama or McCain campaigns, evidently, given the campaign stops this weekend.
October 12, 2008 2:06 PM | Reply | Permalink
Ya beat me to it...
October 12, 2008 2:07 PM | Reply | Permalink
Oh apparently neither does McCain, from his campaign itinerary...
October 12, 2008 2:06 PM | Reply | Permalink
I wish we'd see some more movement after Troopergate, as this is the first poll to capture a full day of it. It's possible that people at this point aren't going to switch their vote over it, and the undecideds left haven't heard of it, and won't until it gets mentioned on TMZ...
October 12, 2008 1:34 PM | Reply | Permalink
Hate to say it, but I think most folks are so dazed by what's happened in the economy and the financial melt-down, that they simply haven't been able to follow Troopergate. But her negatives are now so much higher than her positives, and growing by the day, that it may not matter if regular folks can't tick off all her ethical lapses like we can.
October 12, 2008 1:38 PM | Reply | Permalink
Co-sign
October 12, 2008 1:46 PM | Reply | Permalink
Time has a piece out that states the Ethics panel filled with Palin appointees may have a bigger problem. Seems the independent investigator they hired is a democrat who backed a rival for the governorship. The Ethics panel findings may very well be in harmony with the legislature's findings.
October 12, 2008 2:48 PM | Reply | Permalink
Karma. How sweet it is!
October 12, 2008 3:00 PM | Reply | Permalink
Paul Harris of The Observer offered a wonderful line this morning:
"What works for the Republican base no longer works for the country as a whole"
It is a truth that McCain and Palin and the republicans are slowly learning.
October 12, 2008 1:37 PM | Reply | Permalink
O Yes!
I do love that. I want the mouth breathers and the religious wack jobs to get the message for at least another generation:
Y'all are way outnumbered by sane Americans. Shut up, sit down or go crawl back under your rocks.
October 12, 2008 1:39 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yeah, I mean... it makes my eyes rolling. Those "base" people are nothing but lunatic fringe and their rhetoric, lies, intellectual dishonesty should have marginalized them in society already, but for some strange reasons they are still a viable political force somehow. I'm really hoping this election will be a key turning point about the whole political landscape and *real* conservatives with conscience will be back to the other side.
October 12, 2008 1:48 PM | Reply | Permalink
I don't believe they were viable until after the Iraq War started, really. I don't think they were responsible for 2000 - I think we largely were. They got self-important right about 2003-2004 and after 2004 they were unbearable for about 4 months -
Katrina straightened some people right up.
The rest are just hopeless -they are like that crazy woman McCain had to tell twice Obama was not an Arab (terrorist - jury's out whether she said terrorist or not)
October 12, 2008 1:52 PM | Reply | Permalink
Wait! Remember the story of the canvasser talking to the senior citizen? Got him talking for 45 minutes; four years ago he would have slammed the door in the canvasser's face.
Let's not chase these poor unfortunates back under their rocks. Let's see if we can use the energy that's available to help them see things differently. We have a chance to reduce fear and bring civil discourse to the fore.
Vrroom!
October 12, 2008 1:52 PM | Reply | Permalink
That's fine with me just as long as they stop trying to force their twisted agenda on the whole country and if they will just that the rest of the country is very much not interested in them or their bullshit - which hurts their feelings. This is has largely been about Xians with hurt feelings. Good fucking god!
Some of those people are irredeemable. Whoever is redeemable - have at them.
October 12, 2008 1:54 PM | Reply | Permalink
Amen. Thanks for not letting your (well earned) cynicism carry you away.
I'd say very few. But as MC says, it takes time and energy. Yes, sometimes so much that it's not worth it.
October 12, 2008 2:20 PM | Reply | Permalink
Dearest - I'm the one who constantly argues that the vast majority of Americans are sane and of at least average intelligence.
I want the fundies out of the Texas textbook committee, and off the school boards around the state, or else I want some goddamn standards imposed - No more "science" by way of the Flintstones.
October 12, 2008 2:55 PM | Reply | Permalink
It's hard to balance cynicism and optimism. I do it by oscillating between extremes. Equal time, eh?
October 12, 2008 3:01 PM | Reply | Permalink
Extremely, but then what about life isn't a razor's edge if you really are trying to be a moral, developed, adult human being?
;)
October 12, 2008 3:16 PM | Reply | Permalink
That will only happen when their make-believe world crumbles to dust in front of their eyes and they realize they weren't one of the chosen few to ascend to Heaven.
October 12, 2008 2:52 PM | Reply | Permalink
And they'll be stuck here with me for all eternity !
October 12, 2008 2:53 PM | Reply | Permalink
After the election, the only place I want to see these wackjobs is on TruTV, being chased in stolen cars by cops, or being taken off their bayou boats, drunk.
October 12, 2008 3:07 PM | Reply | Permalink
LOL!
In other words - let's go back to the way it used to be.
October 12, 2008 3:47 PM | Reply | Permalink
LOL.
October 12, 2008 5:44 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yesterday I was at a professional meeting. After his presentation, the speaker said to his minder, "Can I take this out now?" She nodded. Out came the Obama Button!
I'm wondering how long the mcShame signs that come with his Trophy's name on them will actually stay up. At some point I suspect that even repubs will feel shame for their lawn signs.
October 12, 2008 1:41 PM | Reply | Permalink
Reverse Bradley Effect
October 12, 2008 2:25 PM | Reply | Permalink
National polls are meaningless this close to an election. It's all about State polling now, specifically swing state polling.
October 12, 2008 1:42 PM | Reply | Permalink
From yesterday's Muhlenberg PA tracking poll.
October 12, 2008 1:49 PM | Reply | Permalink
More importantly is the CO poll with Obama up by 10. If he wins CO then its already a done deal for Obama.
October 12, 2008 2:06 PM | Reply | Permalink
Not quite.
State polls give a much better picture, but they're not done as often as the national trackers, so they lag a bit. And while the correlation between each state poll and the nationals isn't 100%, it's high enough for the nationals to have some predictive value.
It's your choice of imperfections.
October 12, 2008 2:30 PM | Reply | Permalink
The question that will start being asked in about ten days will be how much will McCain lose by?
Once this theme takes hold in the minds of the electorate the landslide that is quietly being talked about will begin to take shape. The republicans will be fully demoralized, and this will show up in their gotv effort( then add Indiana, and maybe Georgia to Ohio, Virginia and North Carolina ).
I wonder if McCain will heed to the warnings that are coming from his own party to back off, and play it straight for the final weeks?
His slow motion macaca strategy has not only destroyed his slim hopes it's already poisoned the republican races in the house and senate.
Alas after this is all over John will once again be hated by his own party as he was from 2000 to 2007.
October 12, 2008 1:44 PM | Reply | Permalink
And that timeframe coincides almost exactly with Obama already having purchased 1/2 hour of prime time on most of the big tv networks.
Perfect timing by your prediction, I'd say!
October 12, 2008 1:49 PM | Reply | Permalink
I was saying on the lower thread that I can't believe the REpugs waited until 2 weeks out to panic.
They should have started panicking 2 years ago. They are the most utterly clueless bunch of politicians I've ever seen.
NOW they panic? Now? It's a little late for that. LMAO!
October 12, 2008 1:50 PM | Reply | Permalink
Snark alert: Their faith in God was so strong!
October 12, 2008 1:51 PM | Reply | Permalink
Seriously, I bet some of these fundies become confused about their faith once the repugs lose power.
October 12, 2008 1:53 PM | Reply | Permalink
How many Senate seats will the thugs lose?
I'm hoping for a BIG number.
~
October 12, 2008 1:54 PM | Reply | Permalink
O God, me too. Predictions have gone from just over 55 seats to now some on the Right saying that of 12 Repug seats up for grabs in the Senate, the Repugs will lose at least 10 of those.
I saw Gergen and another conservative saying this on some show - I can't recall now.
October 12, 2008 1:57 PM | Reply | Permalink
When is the last time McCain has been to Florida or Virginia? It's as if he doesn't want to campaign there personally as it would be admitting he's in trouble. So he keeps sticking around Iowa, Ohio and Pennsylvania pretending it's still a traditional swing state battle. All the while Virginia and Florida Republicans are begging him to come campaign there personally, rather than sending Gov. Palin, who doesn't play well in either state (outside the Florida Evangelicals).
McCain seems to really be slowing down with his campaign stops. Palin is all over the place, and McCain does one a day, and still takes weekends off.
October 12, 2008 1:58 PM | Reply | Permalink
I co-sign this Jonze.
Plus one of the most telling things I've read recently was that Obama's transition team has been in place for months - they are literally ready to walk right in and start a government.
McLame has told his aides to not do anything about a transition team at all.
October 12, 2008 2:00 PM | Reply | Permalink
It would be best for the world if they could just start that process on Nov. 5th. bush is gone in all but body.
October 12, 2008 2:06 PM | Reply | Permalink
O no shit - I think everyone would be relieved and delighted.
Bush is now crying out like a ghost that no one can see: I'm still here! I'm still president. I still matter!
and it's just like a little voice that gets smaller and smaller...
October 12, 2008 2:15 PM | Reply | Permalink
We would have been better off with a parliamentary system where we could have given Bush a vote of no confidence two or three years ago. This has been the longest lame-duck presidency in history.
Yesterday Bush did a brief early-morning meeting and statement on the finance crisis, accomplishing exactly nothing -- and then he went for a bike ride! (Cue Freddie Mercury: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2CTPLUcQAjk&feature=related.)
October 12, 2008 2:40 PM | Reply | Permalink
Amen to that, Ann Arbor!
October 12, 2008 3:03 PM | Reply | Permalink
I vote against that because it would require rewriting the entire constitution and believe me we do not want contemporary politicians rewriting our constitution.
And it's not foolproof - Tony Blair hung on.
October 12, 2008 3:18 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'm not expecting that to ever happen. But I still think it's a better system. The chief executive is then beholden to a specific constituency of regular citizens, in addition to all the elected reps of his or her party. That keeps a huge check on an sense of a "unitary executive."
Won't happen, I know that. Still my preference though.
October 12, 2008 3:35 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'm getting less than flexible in my protectiveness toward the constitution.
I need to watch that. ;)
October 12, 2008 3:49 PM | Reply | Permalink
Ready to lead on Day One.
Ready to get ready on Day One.
October 12, 2008 2:46 PM | Reply | Permalink
My guess is McCain is hoping that somehow the enthusiasm for Obama fades and the red states fall into line because they are red -- sort of faith-based campaigning.
But it does worry me a bit how focused the Obama campaign is on PA. My guess is that they're a bit worried about the closet racist vote there.
October 12, 2008 2:21 PM | Reply | Permalink
Faith-based campaigning...I love it.
October 12, 2008 3:12 PM | Reply | Permalink
People are disgusted by the McCain/Palin Hate Week!
http://thetruthburns.wordpress.com/2008/10/11/we%e2%80%99ve-gone-from-silly-season-to-hate-week-what%e2%80%99s-next-kristallnacht/
October 12, 2008 2:01 PM | Reply | Permalink
May I just say that that is how to whore a blog - the way you did it - a short statement and a link.
Thank you for being considerate!
October 12, 2008 2:03 PM | Reply | Permalink
mcShame at this point is like a rat in a maze with no exit.
October 12, 2008 2:07 PM | Reply | Permalink
From one of the smartest black politicians in America:
http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2008/10/11/BA7L13EUS5.DTL
October 12, 2008 2:19 PM | Reply | Permalink
tellmemore: Obama supporters are starting to sound like Tawana Brawley.
Know your trolls.
October 12, 2008 2:35 PM | Reply | Permalink
Is this guy a troll? He sounded like one yesterday.
October 12, 2008 2:56 PM | Reply | Permalink
An oldie goldie who bitched a week ago about being banned and whom we all predicted would change his handle and come back.
Et voila!
The answer is YES.
October 12, 2008 3:02 PM | Reply | Permalink
I guess it depends on your definition of troll.
Tellmemore is one, in my judgment.
The "Tawana Brawley" comment was in a thread that was discussing the threats to Obama's safety. The comment went something like this: You Obama supporters are starting to sound like Tawana Brawley.
If you aren't aware of the significance of this, google "Tawana Brawley" and you'll understand, perhaps, why I think twisted little tellmemore is a troll.
October 12, 2008 3:06 PM | Reply | Permalink
Whoever you are quoting has no idea how MOE works.
October 12, 2008 4:13 PM | Reply | Permalink
For McCain WHERE he does his events is not that important as long as the TV coverage is there. He simply has never had the ground game to take advantage of rallies the way Obama does (texting, registrations etc.)
McCain is just playing out the string hoping his "luck" changes. I think he knows that he has no chance unless some sort of double hail Mary comes through for him.
For example, if he shows up on stage for the next debate holding the severed head of Bin Ladin and a map to a treasure big enough to pay the national debt, he could move up a few points in the polls...
October 12, 2008 2:21 PM | Reply | Permalink
This article came out yesterday, but I had not heard about this aspect of this thing - I may have missed someone pointing it out, but:
http://www.newsweek.com/id/163465
October 12, 2008 2:22 PM | Reply | Permalink
I guess I just don't understand the strategy of filing an ethics complaint against yourself in the first place.
I really don't.
October 12, 2008 2:43 PM | Reply | Permalink
O that floors me - that may have never happened before in the annals of legislative and administrative process (you know this is how dumb she is - I skipped just about every class in leg and admin process, borrowed someone else's outline the night before the exam and still made a 83.
Which is a good grade in law school. The guy whose outline I borrowed made a 68 and I'll never forget it - he was mad at me!'
LOL!
October 12, 2008 2:57 PM | Reply | Permalink
The members of the committee were hand picked by Palin. Guaranteed innocent of all charges was expected until.....
October 12, 2008 3:18 PM | Reply | Permalink
Oh, she'll just fire 'em all if she doesn't like what they're doing.
And the Family Court judge TWICE warned Todd Palin to not try harassing Wooten.
I'd like to see Wooten ask that judge for a contempt-of-court citation against One Dood.
October 12, 2008 2:57 PM | Reply | Permalink
Just another example of mcShame's gambling not paying off this year. Karma in charge.
October 12, 2008 3:06 PM | Reply | Permalink
Snake eyes!
October 12, 2008 3:57 PM | Reply | Permalink
I've heard a number of prominent African Americans express their opinion that Obama won't ever be elected cause we just won't do it.
So I really think a whole lot of African Americans are going to get their hair blown back on Nov. 4, too.
October 12, 2008 2:25 PM | Reply | Permalink
That's a great point. I have to be absolutely candid with you for a moment Tena, even though I've been an ardent supporter of Senator Obama's ever since he first announced his candidacy in Spingfield - deep down inside, for the first few months anyway, I didn't think that he had a snowballs chance in Lil Kim's crotch of winning. I knew that Obama had what it took to be an outstanding Commander-in-Chief, and despite the few knuckle-dragging racists among us the country has changed a lot in the last 2 decades. But living where I do in Virginia Beach Virginia, a mental Mayberry of a town that likes to think of itself as "progressive" - I've just witnessed so many subtle forms of racism over the years that I simply thought that America wasn't ready. His win in Iowa started to change that in my mind. His primary strategy was a factor. Coming in contact with supporters of his of all backgrounds online and in person helped change that. The well oiled machine that is Team Obama helped. But most of all, the poise and intellect of our candidate made me a believer. I can't speak for all black people, but I think that many of us acted the same way a person does after they've had their heartbroken - a certain level of cynicism and pessimism used as a defense mechanism.
October 12, 2008 2:55 PM | Reply | Permalink
O believe me - I feel ya - I know what the problem is. I'd be shocked if this feeling wasn't out there.
I hope everyone's hair gets blown back by this election!
October 12, 2008 2:59 PM | Reply | Permalink
I didn't think he'd ever win, either. I'm not black, but I was pretty convinced that people wouldn't vote for him because he's black and has that funny name.
But when he won Iowa, and in convincing fashion, I started to hope.
Actually, mostly I cried that note.
October 12, 2008 3:03 PM | Reply | Permalink
I have to be candid: one of my favorite things about this election has been the looks of utter disbelief on the faces of some AFrican Americans as he was first nominated, then started winning.
I love it. It's like a reverse NWA Surprise ******!
I hope that wasn't over the line, Humanity Critic. Slap me down if it was.
LOL!
October 12, 2008 3:07 PM | Reply | Permalink
No, I'll give you a pass this time Tena, I couldn't attack another Barack Obama supporter who loves Hip Hop as much as I do. lol
October 12, 2008 3:30 PM | Reply | Permalink
Oo - SNL repeated the Lil Wayne show last night -
God those are two of the hottest tracks I've ever heard.
October 12, 2008 3:14 PM | Reply | Permalink
And my girl Jean Grae has dropped another album - god I practically worship her.
October 12, 2008 3:42 PM | Reply | Permalink
I have few illusions about racism in this country - even being white I've seen it all my life. I was raised to be aware of it. My mother, bless her, was a very liberal southerner who credited the civil rights movement with politicizing her. She passed it along to her kids.
That said - I have believed since I started supporting Obama for president in the summer of 2007 that he really could win. I knew it would be tough and that there were people who would never vote for him. But I said last year I have never seen or heard a candidate like him before; I have never been so consistently impressed by any other politician anywhere, at any time. And I absolutely believed that if he stayed true to himself others would come to feel as strongly about him. I knew it would be a long haul, but I was sure he was the best hope we had.
October 12, 2008 5:46 PM | Reply | Permalink
Been hearing the same thing. I had one stare at me said I was a crazy white dude for even thinking such a thing. White people aren't that stupid.
I think they're going thru culture shock.
October 12, 2008 3:24 PM | Reply | Permalink
I dunno... As a white guy doing what I can, I've run into, and worked with, a lot of blacks who know it's possible, as long as they work for it, and vote.
But it helps them to see someone like me who has no taste for hip hop, came from a small town, and still says he loves punk rock even though "punk" has negative meanings in the black community.
I was at a meeting at a team member's house. I was one of two whites there. She had us both meet her 101 year old mother, to let her know "they're working for your boy!" Here's a lady who was 20 in the '20s who had to see with her own eyes that in 2008 whites are working hard to get a black man elected president.
October 12, 2008 6:04 PM | Reply | Permalink
I love how CNN tries to keep this race close:
Got that? He's ahead by 3 rather than 4, and McCain is "gaining ground". No mention that Obama has gained "significant ground" compared to the September 21 "poll of polls".
And O/T: I think the practice of averaging a bunch of polls in together is just B.S. Weighting the contribution by the sample size probably helps a little bit, but you're still throwing in a bunch of different polling methods, party breakdowns, etc. to come up with a single number that's supposed to reflect what, exactly?
October 12, 2008 2:41 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yeah, I saw that myself just now, CT. Thought the same thing.
Did anyone post the piece yesterday in which Bill Kristol - yes that Bill Kristol - said McLame is running a "stupid campaign"?
It's such a whine from Bill - it's funny. He's going to start suck his thumb any second now -
http://rawstory.com/news/2008/Bill_Kristol_McCain_running_stupid_campaign_1012.html
October 12, 2008 2:45 PM | Reply | Permalink
To be clear: this wasn't directed at Eric. It was a comment about this general practice.
October 12, 2008 2:47 PM | Reply | Permalink
Thank goodness the biggest hair-blowing-back happened when white Iowa Dems caucused at the beginning of the year and showed they had no appetite for anything but the best.
October 12, 2008 2:47 PM | Reply | Permalink
:)
You know, white Texans in all the cities did too. In huge, astounding numbers.
October 12, 2008 2:49 PM | Reply | Permalink
Soo listening to MSNBC and they are still saying PA is a close race...
Last 5 polls, 12, 14, 13, 15, 15.
How exactly is a avg of 13.8, close.
I really wish they just report reality for a change.
October 12, 2008 2:51 PM | Reply | Permalink
Don't watch MSNBC. They're in the tank for McSame.
October 12, 2008 3:05 PM | Reply | Permalink
We must watch different MSNBCs. They're not pro-Obama 24/7, but they're definitely not in the tank with McCain.
October 12, 2008 3:10 PM | Reply | Permalink
Ah. You see my snark and raise me something sensible. Time for me to fold.
October 12, 2008 3:13 PM | Reply | Permalink
If you can just convince the McCain camp to do the same. :P
October 12, 2008 3:17 PM | Reply | Permalink
No way. The next three weeks are going to be entertaining beyond measure: Suspense! Drama! Comedy! Poetic justice!
I wouldn't think of missing it :-)
October 12, 2008 3:26 PM | Reply | Permalink
It can be sumed up in one word: Bathos.
October 12, 2008 3:32 PM | Reply | Permalink
O that's really perfect.
October 12, 2008 3:40 PM | Reply | Permalink
Today must be a good day. I just learned a new word!
October 12, 2008 4:01 PM | Reply | Permalink
It HAS to be closer than that as Obama is spending a heckuva lot of time there.
What I think is happening is that Obama is making sure he'll win - locking down Pennsylvania, along with adding Iowa, Colorado and New Mexico while holding Kerry states. Anything after a close win will be seen as a bonus and stronger mandate.
He needs to have Pennsylvania completely secure and can't leave anything to chance.
October 12, 2008 3:08 PM | Reply | Permalink
Places like PA will depend a lot on voter turnout. In part, Obama's visit at this stage is to fire up his base and the volunteers who will GOTV.
October 12, 2008 3:13 PM | Reply | Permalink
I was surprised as hell to read yesterday that Bill Clinton was in Texas campaigning with Noriega.
October 12, 2008 3:39 PM | Reply | Permalink
I think there is going to be a double coattail effect. Many dems will benefit from Obama, but there is the chance that Obama will benefit from the dems downticket. Once someone chooses a side of the fence to vote, it's hard to switch sides for a particular race.
October 12, 2008 3:48 PM | Reply | Permalink
This is a campaign that is not taking anything for granted. Everybody is working as if their state or the votes on their street are the thing that counts. Good!
October 12, 2008 3:38 PM | Reply | Permalink
After the Alaskan legislature report and turn of events, tonight is a good night to whine.
So far, I've drown my sorrows in a bottle of Finca la Estacafa 2006 and I have a bottle of Toscar Cabernet Sauvignon 2003 decanting. Nothing fancy, just taste testing. After which I have some fresh ground Kenya coffee and a bottle of Courvoisier Napoleon Cognac. Life is hard when you're a known, liberal democrat.
October 12, 2008 3:06 PM | Reply | Permalink
O/T but...regarding the clip Josh posted last night of the post-rally interview with the woman who said she was scared of Obama because he's Arab (transcript at http://the-uptake.groups.theuptake.org/en/videogalleryView/id/933/): Now that we know she's a McCain campaign volunteer sending out "Obama is an Arab" letters, could someone in the media please ask the McCain campaign what they think of her activities and whether they plan to ask her to stop?
October 12, 2008 3:06 PM | Reply | Permalink
Sadly, some seem to be taking a "Both sides do it!" approach to this, completely ignoring that the nature of the attacks on each side is quite different. It's the "Republicans say the earth is flat, but some Democrats disagree" method of "balanced reporting".
October 12, 2008 3:14 PM | Reply | Permalink
Thankfully the voters are able to see with their own eyes, and hear with their own ears. At least this election they can.
October 12, 2008 3:20 PM | Reply | Permalink
If the media don't pursue it on their own, it seems like there's an opening here. If the Obama campaign plays their cards right, they could use it to get the McCain campaign to reject the smears -- and maybe educate some voters in the process.
But maybe they just want to stay away from the whole subject at this point, with the state of the campaign already in Obama's favor.
October 12, 2008 3:23 PM | Reply | Permalink
Regarding that, I was glad to read Frank Rich's latest column where he called out "many mindlessly 'even-handed' journalists."
Now I gotta go watch the rally on c-span...
October 12, 2008 3:34 PM | Reply | Permalink
From here, safe on the upper west side of Manhattan (an island I prefer not to leave frequently), it's shocking to be reminded that she exists.
October 12, 2008 3:14 PM | Reply | Permalink
She does exist, and although outnumbered, she exists on your island, too. We have a long road to travel.
October 12, 2008 3:35 PM | Reply | Permalink
Nate Silver has McSame's win probability down to SINGLE DIGITS over at 538: 90.9% Obama, 9.1% McSame.
October 12, 2008 3:19 PM | Reply | Permalink
There are odds I can believe in.
October 12, 2008 3:21 PM | Reply | Permalink
O Giant Jumping Jesus! That's wonderful.
October 12, 2008 3:37 PM | Reply | Permalink
The guy loves a thrill. So with numbers like these I'm sure we can expect a surge and double down next.
October 12, 2008 3:41 PM | Reply | Permalink
I don't know about you, but I'm ready to get that last debate started. I can't imagine what McLame will do for an encore to all this.
October 12, 2008 3:45 PM | Reply | Permalink
"Come on, baby, daddy neads a blue state to turn red."
October 12, 2008 3:45 PM | Reply | Permalink
That's gonna take some very heavy breathing!
October 12, 2008 5:33 PM | Reply | Permalink
Bill Clinton is apparently heded to Virginia after this stop in Pennsylvania.
Bubba's doing his part.
October 12, 2008 3:46 PM | Reply | Permalink
^&*$^&#$*^*&^%#@@$% for a preview function!
"heded" should be "headed".
I write speell and can good.
October 12, 2008 3:48 PM | Reply | Permalink
We kwwo.
October 12, 2008 3:50 PM | Reply | Permalink
I don't know if you saw it, but I said upthread that he was just in Texas helping Noriega.
He is working hard. I think they all are.
October 12, 2008 3:51 PM | Reply | Permalink
I did see that. Every time someone comments that Bill and Hillary aren't doing what they're supposed to do, point that out (like you have been, of course.... : ) )
October 12, 2008 3:54 PM | Reply | Permalink
I put my foot in it with Josephcast, who appeared like a genie the other day when I asked where Russ Feingold was.
He's out campaigning too - I think they all are. I know Richardson has been on the road constantly.
October 12, 2008 3:58 PM | Reply | Permalink
McCain and Palin will in in Virginia Monday as well...
October 12, 2008 3:53 PM | Reply | Permalink
The Clintons in Scranton for Barack. The Obama campaign is right about making sure PA will go blue. That will take some weight off OH VA and FL which could still sway either way. CO seems steady blue and that will seal the deal. And its a good thing the bidens are with them to put a break on the Clintons self-praise tendencies.
Again if there is a state BO can not lose is PA.
There is Bill praising his wife already...
October 12, 2008 3:47 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'd like to see Obama head to Iowa, New Mexico and Colorado for at least one more visit in each before the election.
October 12, 2008 3:56 PM | Reply | Permalink
Just watching it now (small TiVo delay). Jill Biden is praising the Clinton administration, and Big Dawg is standing there with his face turning beet red!
October 12, 2008 4:12 PM | Reply | Permalink
Obama will be spending three days in Toledo Ohio in preparation for the third, and final, debate on Wednesday. So Obama stayed for three days in Florida to prepare for the Mississippi debate, NC to prepare for the Tennessee debate, and now will spend three days in Ohio stirring up local press stories while preparing for the NY debate.
October 12, 2008 3:51 PM | Reply | Permalink
Good!
October 12, 2008 4:01 PM | Reply | Permalink
From:
Head of State
http://headofstate.blogspot.com/2008/10/paranoid-style-meets-issue-of-race-in.html
Sunday, October 12, 2008
The Paranoid Style Meets The Issue of Race In American Politics
Richard Hofstadter's seminal article "The Paranoid Style In American Politics" portrayed, for the first time with widespread impact, the insular and delusional suspiciousness that characterizes much of the "critique", if it can be called that, of the far right and, at times, of the extreme left.
Standing just one notch away from pure delusion--and often not even hewing that distance--and embracing those whose functionality--such as it may be--is supported by and compels the repetition of these fantasies, we see this style in every electoral cycle, manifesting itself, remarkably anew, in new minds, with the same characteristic conspiratorial thinking--the grasping of an ambiguous, or equally likely, unresearched but conspiratorial-sounding detail or name--into a grand plan, foggy in specifics but surely--as it has assumed its premise--secretly lurching towards an all powerful hegemony.
As always, they give people too much credit. As always, they are among the bitter powerless, whose manifest lack of explanation for that lack of power turns itself into a bitter projection--if they can't have it, their secret masters must, and so on. It gives them a path to power through projection--they see the secret truth, and gain power through it's proclamation--thus "None Dare Call It Conspiracy", thus the "Clinton Chronicles", thus "9/11 Truth", etc.
Each election the impulse forces itself to burgeon anew, straining to fit facts to its preexisting need, straining to grow into the dark.
Now--it becomes interesting.
Here--we have a candidate whose power combines with the fact that he is the first of a long oppressed minority to rise to this position. How, we might ask, will this impulse find a way to strain itself upwards towards conspiratorial theories of all embracing power? A challenge to the force of the delusion impulse.
In the last few weeks, we have been seeing the development of this narrative.
Touch him with the brush of radicalism--despite the fact that Obama's adult life story has been one of consensus-building and unifying--a clear and deliberate move towards the shared need, and away from the radical fringe. The key has been to forge the conspiratorial, paranoid impulse with racial fears, to create the combined message: You don't know who he really is.
As in: "Who really is Barack Obama?"
This lights the torch to the paranoid style in full force, turning it upon ill-formed objects--Bill Ayers, ACORN, that by their mere sound and invocation, can be whipped by this eternal historical force into a storm of hatred. To those prone to such thinking, these become absolute evidence, touchstones, the words they have been waiting for.
For the conspiratorialist, the obvious and central characteristic of Obama's personality--the move to unify, which is inherent in his speech, actions and development, is--as is so often the case in this style--evidence of its opposite. Of course, if he were in fact a radically divisive figure, this would also serve as evidence of the same "radical" characteristic. That's the paranoid style--either it's there, or it's masterfully hidden: Heads I win, tails you lose (at least until medicated).
You likely have seen this kind of thinking developing on the outer edges of the message boards and twittering over recent months.
However, it was only with the cementing of the McCain-Palin team that the style has begun to grow into its fuller portrayal. Each of the two essential elements of the admixture is used to reinforce the other--"Radicalism"--Bill Ayers, ACORN--provides license, justification and cover to those who experience a deeper prejudice, and that very prejudice leads those who experience it to draw in unexamined, tangential "evidence" to prove to themselves or others his inauthenticity or "radicalism."
McCain, and to a greater extent Palin, have used this admixture at rallies to attempt to create some form of enthusiasm in the electorate. It has proven to be a volatile mixture, this new alloy of the paranoid style, and, in their efforts to provide some spark to a moribund campaign, they have been unable to keep this lightning in the bottle.
The remarkable and horrifying shouts we have heard over the past weeks did not originate with this campaign--but they were liberated by it, allowing this raw and stark version of the paranoid style to be unleashed by and feed off of these insinuations. We have seen this kind of visceral unleashing of the paranoid style, driven by fear and the impulsive, momentary, compensatory power of stereotypic hatred before, in other nations. Not here, and not in this way.
There are limits to winning--and losing--ugly. And there are ways to fan and contain the paranoid style. I suspect that Plain believes that she is speaking the plain truth to these audiences--and that there is a plain truth to be spoken, and that she already knows what it is--and no more.
It is John McCain's responsibility to put this darker manifestation of a dangerous and unnecessary dybbyk back in the bottle. I can see he understands what has been released--and perhaps would wish to retain just those parts that could meet his ambitions, without its consequent furies.
Just as you would rather lose an election than lose a war, John--I believe that you would rather lose an election than to unleash, justify, imprint and allow this distorted vision on this society. It was not you, it is not you, and it should not be you or us. Consider it your newest, and your best, call to courage.
Cite:
Head of State
http://headofstate.blogspot.com/2008/10/paranoid-style-meets-issue-of-race-in.html
October 12, 2008 3:52 PM | Reply | Permalink
Go away! Grrr!
October 12, 2008 3:56 PM | Reply | Permalink
Fuck off, asshole!
October 12, 2008 4:13 PM | Reply | Permalink
Express your frustration by donating here:
https://donate.barackobama.com/page/contribute/costofnegativity2?source=20081008_JB_D2
Show him the "cost of negativity!"
October 12, 2008 5:45 PM | Reply | Permalink
Eric:
What you did to aggregate these polls might cause you to fail your statistics class.
You describe your process as "weighting them by the square roots of their sample sizes". The correct way to combine a bunch of polls is just to "count every vote the same", i.e. to weight each poll by its sample size.
For instance, suppose we have one poll with 100 responses and another with 200 responses. Combining these, one gets an aggregated poll with 300 responses. It's that simple. Confidence intervals (the plus-minus X% part of the poll result) can then be estimated as usual using a square-root rule.
Square roots emerge when thinking about the degree of confidence that we have in the poll -- e.g. a poll with 400 responses will only be twice as accurate as one with 100 responses -- but weighting different polls by the square root of the sample size does not make any sense.
Indeed, if each poll is biased in a different way, you will be skewing your average toward the bias of smaller polls. As a matter of basic best practice, please change the way you aggregate polls.
[My apologies if this point has already been made upthread. As someone with statistics background, I just had to comment on this.]
October 12, 2008 3:53 PM | Reply | Permalink
Combining polls with different ways of weighting different age groups, party affiliations, etc, into one overall number doesn't make a lot of sense, no matter how you weight the individual polls.
October 12, 2008 4:02 PM | Reply | Permalink
Not only that but you increase the margin of error.
Oh, well... soon we'll vote and be done with it!
October 12, 2008 5:47 PM | Reply | Permalink
I wish they'd killfile you, Hewson.
October 12, 2008 3:53 PM | Reply | Permalink
America rises from the ashes of the bushes!!!HRC
October 12, 2008 3:59 PM | Reply | Permalink
Hillary is on fire. She has said the name BARACK OBAMA for all the times Bill has not
October 12, 2008 4:03 PM | Reply | Permalink
Where are you hearing this?
October 12, 2008 4:04 PM | Reply | Permalink
CNN has it as well. Biden is speaking now.
October 12, 2008 4:07 PM | Reply | Permalink
C-Span too. I'm watching it on C-Span.
October 12, 2008 4:08 PM | Reply | Permalink
ans CSPAN
October 12, 2008 4:09 PM | Reply | Permalink
MSNBC right now
October 12, 2008 4:06 PM | Reply | Permalink
Thx!
October 12, 2008 4:08 PM | Reply | Permalink
Bill was good, but Hillary was at her best.
Best line: "America will raise out of the ashes of the bushes"
Joe is speaking now...
October 12, 2008 4:09 PM | Reply | Permalink
abuse power! Biden wont let troopergate go. Good for him!
October 12, 2008 4:12 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yeah I loved that.
Sorry I missed Hill - I'm sure I'll have another chance to see her -
October 12, 2008 4:14 PM | Reply | Permalink
Hillary was truly great -- hopefully you will be able to find a vid later.
October 12, 2008 4:28 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yes, and it was mentioned so well. Thanking Hillary for never using abuse of power...
Take that pitbull.
October 12, 2008 4:14 PM | Reply | Permalink
pitibull
October 12, 2008 4:28 PM | Reply | Permalink
lol.
October 12, 2008 4:31 PM | Reply | Permalink
I love that!
pitibull
with lipistick
And think "bull" as in BS.
October 12, 2008 5:49 PM | Reply | Permalink
now they are playing good team baseball, the girls in blue, the change we need..
October 12, 2008 4:14 PM | Reply | Permalink
Again, Obama sends Biden with the Clintons..just make sure this is your show Joe, that said Kudos to the Clintons
October 12, 2008 4:18 PM | Reply | Permalink
We will end this war!
woo hoo - burn down the house, Joe!
October 12, 2008 4:21 PM | Reply | Permalink
Biden is brilliant. Just awesome. I love this man.
I don't need a lecture of Patriotsm.
October 12, 2008 4:30 PM | Reply | Permalink
I mean:
I don't need lecture on Patriotism. I had it up to here (placing his palm on his neck).
October 12, 2008 4:32 PM | Reply | Permalink
I know - but I think they still think they have to fight that fight -
I'm not sure they do at this point -
October 12, 2008 4:34 PM | Reply | Permalink
Aaargh! MSNBC just cut off Joe Biden's speech. Shoulda gone with C-SPAN. Duh!
Joe was great. Hillary, too. But Big Dawg? Here's what he said about Biden as VP (at about 4:45 p.m. EDT):
October 12, 2008 5:27 PM | Reply | Permalink
National service - the Democrats always bring this and I really love it - get the military's octupus-like arms and suckers out of our culture to the extent that it is.
Equate service with what it really mean, not just learning to kill people and to be killed.
October 12, 2008 4:37 PM | Reply | Permalink
Oooooh! Yes!
October 12, 2008 5:56 PM | Reply | Permalink
Joe been listening to Luda - Stand Up!
Get up America and save this country!
Awesome.
Oo - Signed Sealed and Delivered! again!
Woo Hoo!
October 12, 2008 4:41 PM | Reply | Permalink
Where'd everybody go?
That security guy with Hill who has polished his shaven skull needs to look at that vid later and stop the hell polishing that dome, for the love of god!
October 12, 2008 4:43 PM | Reply | Permalink
October 12, 2008 4:44 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yeah, I saw that this morning -- some repugs are jumping off the sinking Titanic, others are trying to rearrange its deckchairs.
October 12, 2008 4:48 PM | Reply | Permalink
I did too.
I've never seen such furious rearranging -some of them yelling More Ayers! Some of them yelling No More Ayers! Some of them yelling Economy! Some of them yelling Do Not Talk about the Economy!
I'm still LMAO at this spectacle - they waited this long before they panicked. This long! I think that's funny that they didn't get it sooner.
And sad.
October 12, 2008 4:54 PM | Reply | Permalink
That Buckley column had it right. It's a split between the conservatives and the lunatics.
October 12, 2008 5:08 PM | Reply | Permalink
Wasn't that inevitable?
If the conservative intelligentsia wins and gets the party back under their control, we might end up with a 2 party state that actually works together by balancing competing interests.
If the loonies win, it will be all-out culture war and obstruction all the time.
October 12, 2008 5:28 PM | Reply | Permalink
Could the loonies really get it together enough to actually be a determinating faction?
October 12, 2008 5:54 PM | Reply | Permalink
Make that "determining faction" - or "determining factor" or something.
October 12, 2008 5:57 PM | Reply | Permalink
I don't really see how - they've lost so many of their big names in Congress already - Frist and Santorum - are there any real religious right standouts in Congress anymore?
'
But I never count those snakes out completely - or at least, I never will again. I'm hoping that as millennial fever dies off completely, some of the zealotry will too and by 2010, most of them should have faced the fact that the Rapture ain't happening in the next 10 minutes.
October 12, 2008 5:59 PM | Reply | Permalink
Your mention of Frist and other republicans leaving McNasty high and dry is the classic case of Karma.
Apparently, they all believe in guilt by association.
October 12, 2008 5:05 PM | Reply | Permalink
Obamas camp should start using the word Visionary more often, leaving the McCain 'maverick' meme meaningless and empty.
October 12, 2008 4:53 PM | Reply | Permalink
Excellent idea!
October 12, 2008 5:41 PM | Reply | Permalink
I know it's from the UK, but this seems to confirm several suspicions about the McCain/Palin ticket:
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/us_and_americas/us_elections/article4926283.ece
And Palin's puppet master, Bill Kristol, was on Fix News today, calling the McCain campaign "stupid" and its supposed strategy "pathetic."
October 12, 2008 4:58 PM | Reply | Permalink
Who is controlling Palin if it's not McCain? If it isn't McCain, we should find out who they are because they probably need to be added to the terrorist watch list.
October 12, 2008 5:06 PM | Reply | Permalink
I think it's the religious right and the extreme rightwing of what's left of the Republican Party, including some neo-cons.
October 12, 2008 5:12 PM | Reply | Permalink
It's pretty clear that she's under the influence of right-wing extremists who are glad to court white supremacists and even Iran ...
http://www.salon.com/news/feature/2008/10/10/palin_chryson/
Why is this NOT getting play in the MSM? Obama serving on a Republican-founded charitable board with a reformed 60s radical gets all the play, and this doesn't? This is terrifying stuff.
Don't these folks realize that this is not the way to build a political base? The white majority is dwindling and the extremists are not going down without a fight.
October 12, 2008 5:14 PM | Reply | Permalink
I think it may be a subtle/not-so-subtle (?) attempt to distance her from Mccain so as to position he for the future...LOL!
October 12, 2008 5:16 PM | Reply | Permalink
Damn. Position "her"... (with the 'Wedge' perhaps?)
October 12, 2008 5:17 PM | Reply | Permalink
That's what the Times article claims, but I swear that's fantastical.
Watch her disappear. She won't run again.
I'll bet anyone right now.
October 12, 2008 5:19 PM | Reply | Permalink
She may not run again, yes. She may end up so disgraced that she won't even get re-elected in Alaska. But there are no limits to her, or the extreme right's, delusions.
October 12, 2008 5:32 PM | Reply | Permalink
Won't get re-elected? They're already collecting signatures for a recall!
October 12, 2008 5:36 PM | Reply | Permalink
Please, please, PLEASE let her run again, win the primary, and get completely demolished by Obama in 2012.
I've noticed that Obama has a real talent for making his opponents seem incompetent.
October 12, 2008 5:49 PM | Reply | Permalink
The exorcist?
October 12, 2008 5:34 PM | Reply | Permalink
Billy-Bob ran into her while on a conservative cruise ship in Alaska and he's been pushing her onto the stage every since.
October 12, 2008 6:30 PM | Reply | Permalink
Obama ads in Fl are running non stop and by the pair. I have yet to see a McClowns. Has he given up Fl? I saw dolphins from my balcony leaping through a perfect rainbow the other day at dusk. It was a beautiful scene. No metaphors here, and I know there will be better days ahead.
October 12, 2008 5:28 PM | Reply | Permalink
McCain told his supporters that he is going to whip BO "you know what" in the debate on Wednesday.
http://firstread.msnbc.msn.com/archive/2008/10/12/1537045.aspx
October 12, 2008 5:34 PM | Reply | Permalink
Hmmmm..... where have we heard this before?
October 12, 2008 5:35 PM | Reply | Permalink
Weren't the gloves coming of last time, supposedly?
good lord -
October 12, 2008 5:51 PM | Reply | Permalink
And if McGrumpy pulls out the "associations" card, all Barack has to say is: Associations? What about your associations, John, with George Bush and Dick Cheney, who lied to put us in a war that has cost us nearly a trillion dollars and the lives of nearly 5,000 young Americans? The same George Bush and Dick Cheney, who failed to crush al-Qaeda and Bin Laden, who murdered 3,000 Americans on 9/11. The same George Bush and Dick Cheney who considered themselves above the law and made torture a policy. The same George Bush and Dick Cheney whose bankrupt economic philosophy has pushed this country into the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression.
October 12, 2008 5:46 PM | Reply | Permalink
Typical McCain. So many of his supporters have been after him to attack Obama in the debates - now it's his last chance and he's going to over-compensate and scare all the remaining undecideds away.
Then he'll pop, sputter around the room and fall flat on the floor.
October 12, 2008 5:55 PM | Reply | Permalink
Pop. Sputter. Fall flat. Wow, I'd love to see it!
October 12, 2008 5:58 PM | Reply | Permalink
Palin still playing the traitor card. I cant believe this. Is she fucking dumb or what?
October 12, 2008 5:50 PM | Reply | Permalink
Broken record.
October 12, 2008 5:52 PM | Reply | Permalink
Grampy and Failin' are running two separate campaigns. It's so clear. She's positioning herself for 2012, and he's trying to save some face.
October 12, 2008 5:57 PM | Reply | Permalink
She's delusional if she thinks she stands a chance in 2012. She'd have to contend in a primary, for god sakes. She'll need more than exorcist to get through the primaries!
October 12, 2008 6:01 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yes, she's fucking dumb.
October 12, 2008 6:02 PM | Reply | Permalink
Obama never uses the word 'victory' in his speeches..people chant U S A, U S A, disgusting
October 12, 2008 5:53 PM | Reply | Permalink
Thera - One thing Obama has done a lot since he was nominated, is say: "When I am president, thus and so..." I see that as not only setting up a inevitability in people's minds, I see that now as getting people used to the idea, too.
I've really liked that - he's done it a lot and it's been very effective.
October 12, 2008 5:56 PM | Reply | Permalink
Obama is a genius! And his campaign is awesome. Yes, most of us already see him as "our leader."
October 12, 2008 6:00 PM | Reply | Permalink
I want this to much that it's scaring me to think I'm going to get it.
Why is that?
October 12, 2008 6:09 PM | Reply | Permalink
Been burned a few times before. That horrible feeling is way scary.
October 12, 2008 6:13 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yep - that's it. Can't let go until it's over.
October 12, 2008 6:17 PM | Reply | Permalink
Completely agree. I'm happy the polls are they way they are, but I'm not convinced. My poor girlfriend, she can't wait until Nov. 4, mainly because she sees my obsession with the campaign growing day to day. I tried to explain it this way:
See, I'm a NY Giants fan. This election is like the Super Bowl vs. the Patriots. My team is playing a terrific game, with an edge in statistics, intangibles and intensity, but it's still too close - so close that a victory will be the sweetest thing, but a defeat would be crushing beyond all belief. Now, stretch a four-quarter football game to, as we stand now, about a month, and the consequences a lot worse than simply losing a game.
October 12, 2008 6:30 PM | Reply | Permalink
Garrison Keillor had an interesting view of where Palin may end up after the election, and he wan't optimistic. At best, he thinks she'll fade from the national stage but still be able to pull about 40K for speaking engagements.
October 12, 2008 5:56 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yeah or she and First Dude will go back and work really hard with the AIP and maybe she can be the first President of Alaska.
I wonder what they think they'd do without all that federal government welfare they get up there?
If they want out, I don't give a shit, but that is going to be one small ass country.
October 12, 2008 6:07 PM | Reply | Permalink
Screeching lady.. my ears are bleeding.
October 12, 2008 6:03 PM | Reply | Permalink
Obama knocks on doors, surprises voters
http://www.swamppolitics.com/news/politics/blog/2008/10/barack_obama_john_mccain_ohio_1.html
The Big O was out in the field today in Toledo Ohio meeting with voters before doing his debate prep. He totally rocks
October 12, 2008 6:09 PM | Reply | Permalink
That's just sooo way cool. Sweet!
October 12, 2008 6:17 PM | Reply | Permalink
If I opened my door and Obama was standing there I think I'd faint.
LOL!
October 12, 2008 6:20 PM | Reply | Permalink
Imagine one of those helicopter wolf killing trips headphoned Palin shouting: there it is..look Trig, look, thats a wolf. Bang! Did I hit it, Did I hit it!?
October 12, 2008 6:17 PM | Reply | Permalink
You know, I'd rather not.
;)
October 12, 2008 6:22 PM | Reply | Permalink
Nate Silver at FiveThirtyEight has a great analysis of McCain's attack ads:
"... in short, designed to engage the viewer on an emotional rather than intellectual level, to play to the subconscious mind. And that carries through to the tagline -- "Who is Barack Obama?" -- a question that the ad addresses only obliquely. What, precisely, is that supposed to mean? Shouldn't the ad be telling us who Barack Obama is, rather than asking our imaginations to run wild?
"I am no advertising critic, but the McCain campaign's ads are routinely among the most bizarre that I have ever seen, appearing to originate from a sort of parallel universe in which cartoonish Obama heads float disembodied before sepia-toned backgrounds, in which language is distilled to a technocratic shorthand, in which the line between imagination and reality is blurred. I find them exceptionally disturbing, and that is surely the reaction they are meant to evoke."
October 12, 2008 6:24 PM | Reply | Permalink
... it lies between the pit of man's fears and the summit of his knowledge. This is the dimension of imagination. It is an area which we call the Twilight Zone.
McSame = 0 - 1j. The Twilight Zone, indeed.
October 13, 2008 11:20 AM | Reply | Permalink