TPM Track Composite: Obama Ahead By Over Seven Points
Here's our daily composite of the five major national tracking polls. Barack Obama's lead may have contracted slightly since yesterday -- but the overall difference is very small, and he remains well ahead:
• Gallup: Obama 50%, McCain 43%, with a ±2% margin of error, compared to a 51%-42% Obama lead yesterday.
• Rasmussen: Obama 51%, McCain 45%, with a ±2% margin of error, compared to a 52%-45% Obama lead from yesterday.
• Hotline/Diageo: Obama 49%, McCain 41%, with a ±3.4% margin of error, compared to a 50%-40% Obama lead yesterday.
• Research 2000: Obama 53%, McCain 40%, with a ±3% margin of error, compared to a 52%-40% Obama lead from yesterday.
• Zogby: Obama 49%, McCain 43%, with a ±2.9% margin of error, compared to a 48%-44% Obama lead yesterday.
Adding these polls together and weighting them by the square roots of their sample sizes, Obama is ahead 50.4%-42.8%, a lead of 7.6 points, compared to a 50.8%-42.5% Obama lead yesterday.
Late Update:Gallup has begun offering two different sub-samples of likely voters, one using a traditional likely-voter model and the other using a new model that has been modified for an expected higher turnout. We will be using that second model, under the expectation that newly-registered voters and other factors will contribute to a higher turnout this cycle. Plugging today's Gallup results for likely voters -- Obama 51%, McCain 45% -- into our calculations yields a revised composite of Obama 50.7%, McCain 43.2%. We'll be switching over to that likely-voter number in our composites from now on.
THIS....
October 12, 2008 1:17 PM | Reply | Permalink
IS
October 12, 2008 1:19 PM | Reply | Permalink
EXCELLENT
October 12, 2008 1:25 PM | Reply | Permalink
NEWS
October 12, 2008 1:27 PM | Reply | Permalink
FOR
October 12, 2008 1:28 PM | Reply | Permalink
BIBLE SPICE/OLD SPICE 2008!
October 12, 2008 1:29 PM | Reply | Permalink
ARRAKIS SPICE 08!
Let the Spice flow--Drill Baby Drill!
October 12, 2008 1:48 PM | Reply | Permalink
Watch out for sand worms!
October 12, 2008 3:10 PM | Reply | Permalink
BUT...
October 12, 2008 1:28 PM | Reply | Permalink
MCCAIN!
October 12, 2008 1:29 PM | Reply | Permalink
Who?
October 12, 2008 1:55 PM | Reply | Permalink
George Wallace 2.0
http://pufferfish.typepad.com/
October 12, 2008 1:58 PM | Reply | Permalink
Tiny fractional changes are very likely within the margin of error.
To me the most notable thing is the finding in the internals of the R2K poll that Obama continues to widen his lead among voters over 60. McShame has long had a lead in that group. But about 10% of them moved from mcShame to undecided last week. And in the past few days that group has shrunk and Obama received the vast majority of the over 60 undecided voters.
Except for whites, Obama leads in every group. Every age group. And both sexes. Since white people seem to be all that mcShame has left, he has lost any shred of decency and is making a play for white racists.
I find this disgusting. mcShame you are so low, you simply can't get much lower. You've joined worms underground - you're now eating dirt, not just excreting it.
October 12, 2008 1:31 PM | Reply | Permalink
Thera - Cuban American Republicans have turned to Obama.
I am totally gobsmacked over that one -
October 12, 2008 1:33 PM | Reply | Permalink
The only place mcShame muck seems to stick anymore is with wacked out whites. The so-called WOW factor!
October 12, 2008 1:35 PM | Reply | Permalink
They've now seen McSame's erratic behavior for themselves. And they know what that means.
October 12, 2008 2:03 PM | Reply | Permalink
When I see McCain's numbers drop below the big four zero, I may start to take an interest.
October 12, 2008 2:44 PM | Reply | Permalink
So the polls moved 4/10ths of a percent in 24 hours?
Am I right about that number? Mostly numbers kind of bounce off the outside of my head -
October 12, 2008 1:31 PM | Reply | Permalink
That's not a move. That's a statistical factor. It's surely within the margin of error. Margin of error just means that in any particular sample, poll, whatever, there is a chance that a different sample on the same day might yield slightly different data. No biggie!
October 12, 2008 1:33 PM | Reply | Permalink
What Thera said. And remember, Eric has this tendency to put it as if there were something when there is nothing statistically significant :P
October 12, 2008 1:36 PM | Reply | Permalink
Thanks - that was what I thought and kind of what I meant.
I think these 24 poll checks are a little useless anyway - but a lot of people like polls, so my opinion is strictly personal!
October 12, 2008 1:37 PM | Reply | Permalink
At this point, I'm more concerned about numbers from the battlegrounds.
October 12, 2008 1:43 PM | Reply | Permalink
Obama up by 12 in Muhlenberg's PA tracking poll...Yesterday.
October 12, 2008 1:57 PM | Reply | Permalink
PA isn't a battleground, its solid Obama, the MSM just doesn't want to admit it.
October 12, 2008 2:02 PM | Reply | Permalink
Neither do the Obama or McCain campaigns, evidently, given the campaign stops this weekend.
October 12, 2008 2:06 PM | Reply | Permalink
Ya beat me to it...
October 12, 2008 2:07 PM | Reply | Permalink
Oh apparently neither does McCain, from his campaign itinerary...
October 12, 2008 2:06 PM | Reply | Permalink
I wish we'd see some more movement after Troopergate, as this is the first poll to capture a full day of it. It's possible that people at this point aren't going to switch their vote over it, and the undecideds left haven't heard of it, and won't until it gets mentioned on TMZ...
October 12, 2008 1:34 PM | Reply | Permalink
Hate to say it, but I think most folks are so dazed by what's happened in the economy and the financial melt-down, that they simply haven't been able to follow Troopergate. But her negatives are now so much higher than her positives, and growing by the day, that it may not matter if regular folks can't tick off all her ethical lapses like we can.
October 12, 2008 1:38 PM | Reply | Permalink
Co-sign
October 12, 2008 1:46 PM | Reply | Permalink
Time has a piece out that states the Ethics panel filled with Palin appointees may have a bigger problem. Seems the independent investigator they hired is a democrat who backed a rival for the governorship. The Ethics panel findings may very well be in harmony with the legislature's findings.
October 12, 2008 2:48 PM | Reply | Permalink
Karma. How sweet it is!
October 12, 2008 3:00 PM | Reply | Permalink
Paul Harris of The Observer offered a wonderful line this morning:
"What works for the Republican base no longer works for the country as a whole"
It is a truth that McCain and Palin and the republicans are slowly learning.
October 12, 2008 1:37 PM | Reply | Permalink
O Yes!
I do love that. I want the mouth breathers and the religious wack jobs to get the message for at least another generation:
Y'all are way outnumbered by sane Americans. Shut up, sit down or go crawl back under your rocks.
October 12, 2008 1:39 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yeah, I mean... it makes my eyes rolling. Those "base" people are nothing but lunatic fringe and their rhetoric, lies, intellectual dishonesty should have marginalized them in society already, but for some strange reasons they are still a viable political force somehow. I'm really hoping this election will be a key turning point about the whole political landscape and *real* conservatives with conscience will be back to the other side.
October 12, 2008 1:48 PM | Reply | Permalink
I don't believe they were viable until after the Iraq War started, really. I don't think they were responsible for 2000 - I think we largely were. They got self-important right about 2003-2004 and after 2004 they were unbearable for about 4 months -
Katrina straightened some people right up.
The rest are just hopeless -they are like that crazy woman McCain had to tell twice Obama was not an Arab (terrorist - jury's out whether she said terrorist or not)
October 12, 2008 1:52 PM | Reply | Permalink
Wait! Remember the story of the canvasser talking to the senior citizen? Got him talking for 45 minutes; four years ago he would have slammed the door in the canvasser's face.
Let's not chase these poor unfortunates back under their rocks. Let's see if we can use the energy that's available to help them see things differently. We have a chance to reduce fear and bring civil discourse to the fore.
Vrroom!
October 12, 2008 1:52 PM | Reply | Permalink
That's fine with me just as long as they stop trying to force their twisted agenda on the whole country and if they will just that the rest of the country is very much not interested in them or their bullshit - which hurts their feelings. This is has largely been about Xians with hurt feelings. Good fucking god!
Some of those people are irredeemable. Whoever is redeemable - have at them.
October 12, 2008 1:54 PM | Reply | Permalink
Amen. Thanks for not letting your (well earned) cynicism carry you away.
I'd say very few. But as MC says, it takes time and energy. Yes, sometimes so much that it's not worth it.
October 12, 2008 2:20 PM | Reply | Permalink
Dearest - I'm the one who constantly argues that the vast majority of Americans are sane and of at least average intelligence.
I want the fundies out of the Texas textbook committee, and off the school boards around the state, or else I want some goddamn standards imposed - No more "science" by way of the Flintstones.
October 12, 2008 2:55 PM | Reply | Permalink
It's hard to balance cynicism and optimism. I do it by oscillating between extremes. Equal time, eh?
October 12, 2008 3:01 PM | Reply | Permalink
Extremely, but then what about life isn't a razor's edge if you really are trying to be a moral, developed, adult human being?
;)
October 12, 2008 3:16 PM | Reply | Permalink
That will only happen when their make-believe world crumbles to dust in front of their eyes and they realize they weren't one of the chosen few to ascend to Heaven.
October 12, 2008 2:52 PM | Reply | Permalink
And they'll be stuck here with me for all eternity !
October 12, 2008 2:53 PM | Reply | Permalink
After the election, the only place I want to see these wackjobs is on TruTV, being chased in stolen cars by cops, or being taken off their bayou boats, drunk.
October 12, 2008 3:07 PM | Reply | Permalink
LOL!
In other words - let's go back to the way it used to be.
October 12, 2008 3:47 PM | Reply | Permalink
LOL.
October 12, 2008 5:44 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yesterday I was at a professional meeting. After his presentation, the speaker said to his minder, "Can I take this out now?" She nodded. Out came the Obama Button!
I'm wondering how long the mcShame signs that come with his Trophy's name on them will actually stay up. At some point I suspect that even repubs will feel shame for their lawn signs.
October 12, 2008 1:41 PM | Reply | Permalink
Reverse Bradley Effect
October 12, 2008 2:25 PM | Reply | Permalink
National polls are meaningless this close to an election. It's all about State polling now, specifically swing state polling.
October 12, 2008 1:42 PM | Reply | Permalink
From yesterday's Muhlenberg PA tracking poll.
October 12, 2008 1:49 PM | Reply | Permalink
More importantly is the CO poll with Obama up by 10. If he wins CO then its already a done deal for Obama.
October 12, 2008 2:06 PM | Reply | Permalink
Not quite.
State polls give a much better picture, but they're not done as often as the national trackers, so they lag a bit. And while the correlation between each state poll and the nationals isn't 100%, it's high enough for the nationals to have some predictive value.
It's your choice of imperfections.
October 12, 2008 2:30 PM | Reply | Permalink
The question that will start being asked in about ten days will be how much will McCain lose by?
Once this theme takes hold in the minds of the electorate the landslide that is quietly being talked about will begin to take shape. The republicans will be fully demoralized, and this will show up in their gotv effort( then add Indiana, and maybe Georgia to Ohio, Virginia and North Carolina ).
I wonder if McCain will heed to the warnings that are coming from his own party to back off, and play it straight for the final weeks?
His slow motion macaca strategy has not only destroyed his slim hopes it's already poisoned the republican races in the house and senate.
Alas after this is all over John will once again be hated by his own party as he was from 2000 to 2007.
October 12, 2008 1:44 PM | Reply | Permalink
And that timeframe coincides almost exactly with Obama already having purchased 1/2 hour of prime time on most of the big tv networks.
Perfect timing by your prediction, I'd say!
October 12, 2008 1:49 PM | Reply | Permalink
I was saying on the lower thread that I can't believe the REpugs waited until 2 weeks out to panic.
They should have started panicking 2 years ago. They are the most utterly clueless bunch of politicians I've ever seen.
NOW they panic? Now? It's a little late for that. LMAO!
October 12, 2008 1:50 PM | Reply | Permalink
Snark alert: Their faith in God was so strong!
October 12, 2008 1:51 PM | Reply | Permalink
Seriously, I bet some of these fundies become confused about their faith once the repugs lose power.
October 12, 2008 1:53 PM