TPM Track Composite: Obama Ahead By More Than Eight Points
Here's our daily composite of the five major national tracking polls. This is the first day on which we have data collected entirely after the second presidential debate, and it shows, and it shows that Barack Obama has expanded his already-considerable lead since that debate:
• Gallup: Obama 51%, McCain 42%, with a ±2% margin of error, compared to a 51%-41% Obama lead yesterday.
• Rasmussen: Obama 52%, McCain 45%, with a ±2% margin of error, compared to a 50%-45% Obama lead from yesterday.
• Hotline/Diageo: Obama 50%, McCain 40%, with a ±3.4% margin of error, compared to a 48%-41% Obama lead yesterday.
• Research 2000: Obama 52%, McCain 40%, with a ±3% margin of error, unchanged from yesterday.
• Zogby: Obama 48%, McCain 44%, with a ±2.9% margin of error, compared to a 48%-43% Obama lead yesterday.
Adding these polls together and weighting them by the square roots of their sample sizes, Obama is ahead 50.8%-42.5%, a lead of more than eight points, compared to a 50.0%-42.2% Obama lead yesterday. In the data collected before the debate, the score was Obama 49.7%, McCain 43.2%.
The entire average is being skewed by unreliable, ill-reputed Zogby.
October 11, 2008 1:11 PM | Reply | Permalink
What is the deal with Zogby?
~
October 11, 2008 1:18 PM | Reply | Permalink
Zogby's polling doesn't seem that far off. It's his party ID weighting that's screwy, and out of step with everyone else.
I suppose it serves as a "potential worst case" boundary poll. But in reporting multiple tracking poll averages, it might be wise to exclude them.
October 11, 2008 2:16 PM | Reply | Permalink
Zogby is complete crap. I don't include him in my methodology.
Right now, without zogby, I have it at Obama +9.1:
http://demockracy.com/tracking-poll-update-obama-91/
October 11, 2008 2:20 PM | Reply | Permalink
Nate Silver says the fat lady is warming up...
http://blogs.tnr.com/tnr/blogs/the_plank/archive/2008/10/10/today-s-polls-the-fat-lady-has-entered-the-building.aspx
http://pufferfish.typepad.com/
October 11, 2008 2:49 PM | Reply | Permalink
Check out InTrade today!
Obama 79, McCain 21.5
October 11, 2008 4:09 PM | Reply | Permalink
The most valuable of all the polls.
October 11, 2008 4:29 PM | Reply | Permalink
Indeed.
October 11, 2008 5:45 PM | Reply | Permalink
Following up on this thread, I just went through the tracking polls for the past month, graphed
it all out, and the movement has been unbelievable:
Tracking Obama's Rise in the Polls
October 11, 2008 4:51 PM | Reply | Permalink
McCain's Even Trailing in Hypothetical Race Against ‘That One’
http://satiricalpolitical.com/?p=3827
October 11, 2008 1:23 PM | Reply | Permalink
Doesn't Zogby use the 2004 numbers for weighting averages? Nate Silver has written about Zogby a bit, and I believe that is his main criticism.
October 11, 2008 1:23 PM | Reply | Permalink
Here is a thing about Zogby: During the early stage of primaries, he was the only to have Obama way ahead in all places. People in media and pollsters started ridiculing him. So now, as a weird correction of his past mistakes, he's subtracting 5 points from Obama's actual poll numbers in the survey. Doing so, he's looking again ridiculous.
October 11, 2008 1:57 PM | Reply | Permalink
all polls are based on 2004 numbers that is the good thing for us as we know the numbers that obama has got registered for the first time so the polls are all under showing his real position
October 11, 2008 8:44 PM | Reply | Permalink
This is all fabulous news but we can't rest easy just yet. Now is the time to ratchet it up and seal the deal. Either volunteer - canvassing, making phone calls, or helping out in your local Obama office - or donate so that someone else can do those things on your behalf.
In other words, Keep up the good work. I know plenty of y'all are doing a ton already and as you can see it's working but we're not done yet!
October 11, 2008 1:24 PM | Reply | Permalink
Sigh. Why can't Obama break 55?
October 11, 2008 1:24 PM | Reply | Permalink
LOL!
Hey - congratulations on living in a civilized state - y'all recognized equal protection for what it is!
October 11, 2008 1:28 PM | Reply | Permalink
Connecticut is so very sane. It really is. Even the Republicans are sane.
We just have that one ugly little reminder that sometimes, we drift off the sanity train: Joe Lieberman.
October 11, 2008 1:32 PM | Reply | Permalink
I can tell.
Never been further into Connecticut than Greenwich - my first husband was picking up a painting that a woman was loaning to the Fort Worth Art Museum (it's now the Fort Worth Modern) and I was with him. It was all huge estates with huge mean guard dogs where we were, but it was so beautiful.
And I never wanted to steal a painting so much in my life - it was an Agnes Martin and one of the most beautiful Agnes Martin's I've ever seen and she's my favorite painter.
*sigh*. But it was October and we drove all the way back from there to Dallas and that was a really cool trip. Virginia was stunning!
October 11, 2008 2:07 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'd say October is about the best month to be in CT. Today, it's 70 and there's not a cloud in the sky. The trees are turning, and the colors are spectacular. Fall in New England makes winter bearable. Mostly.
October 11, 2008 3:21 PM | Reply | Permalink
Pretty much true, recent gubernatorial antics notwithstanding. I'm sure y'all miss Ella Grasso.
Lowell Weicker comes to mind.
Notably, it was CT that had its anti-contraception law struck down in 1965 (Griswold v. CT). The finding of a Constitutional right to privacy in that case paved the way for Roe v. Wade eight years later.
October 11, 2008 3:03 PM | Reply | Permalink
Education, education, education. Except, of course, in the inner cities. But genearlly everyone is so well educated in CT.
October 11, 2008 3:07 PM | Reply | Permalink
Good question. I fret that he won't be able to cling to that slender lead for much longer ;)
October 11, 2008 2:18 PM | Reply | Permalink
Zogby = random number generator
October 11, 2008 1:26 PM | Reply | Permalink
Zogby used the following breakdown
40% D
38% R
And tomorrow we will have a sense if abuse of power would impact pitbull...
And it also confirms that the attacks are not working...
October 11, 2008 1:27 PM | Reply | Permalink
From mydd:
In other words, Zogby is weighting Democrats and Republicans almost equally, which seems pretty nutty.
October 11, 2008 1:29 PM | Reply | Permalink
It's more than just the weighting of Dem-Repub. It's also the age skew favoring the Repubs. They underestimate both elements of the Obama Ground Game - Dem voter registration, and the appeal to younger voters.
On the second, I know that a lot of old time Nixon Republicans are having "McGovern Youth Vote" flashbacks, thinking that Obama is drawing a mythical age block that won't show up.
What they're missing is that when we talking about "younger voters", we mean younger than that 50+ demo that the Republicans are dominating. Obama isn't just pulling in the 18-24's, but also a lot of the 24-45's that have been really jaded over the years and/or were drinking the Bush-Rove kool aid.
Zogby is missing the boat on that. They're not the only one that hasn't adjusted. It seems like a lot of the pools weren't paying close attention to the primaries/cacuses. It's possible that they misread some of them since interest wasn't strong on the Repub side, which in turn skews their numbers towards the age range that "always votes" rather than the groups getting swept up in a election that's moving them.
John
October 11, 2008 1:46 PM | Reply | Permalink
Two Questions:
1. Does anyone know the coverage of the Palin abuse on MSM? I mean CNN and MSNBC.
2. Has Obama camp released a statement on the findings of the last night's report?
October 11, 2008 1:32 PM | Reply | Permalink
Last night, both CNN and MSNBC had "Breaking News" banners that read: Palin abused power.
This morning, it seemed most of the focus was on the Paulson announcement.
October 11, 2008 1:35 PM | Reply | Permalink
Want to laugh?
Go over to Drudge and see if you can find the story about Palin. Hilarious.
October 11, 2008 1:37 PM | Reply | Permalink
Drudge is like a jr. high pimple-faced post-pubescent teenboy, with a crush on a slutty-dressing lady teacher...
His lifelong battle with male insecurity won't allow him to trash the woman he loves, no matter how newsworthy...
October 11, 2008 3:27 PM | Reply | Permalink
Last night, MSNBC devoted Olbermann's entire show (Olbermann was out) almost to the Troopergate report and everybody skewered Palin.
What I found interesting was the very thinly disguised contempt in the voices of the journalists and the people they were talking to about it. The contempt for Palin is out front at this point.
October 11, 2008 1:40 PM | Reply | Permalink
CBS Radio news was still on the tire swing last night.
They talked about the partisan nature of the report, that it was prepared by a Dem investigator, and that some Dems had previously touted it as a pending October Surprise.
Reduced it to he-said, she-said.
October 11, 2008 3:08 PM | Reply | Permalink
Thanks CT, I could remember the 2% gap, and I remember reading this somewhere..
BTW, McWar kept pushing the Ayers story after he "defended Obama", so now he is attacking Obama behind the doors....
What a crook. He really has no honor left!!!
October 11, 2008 1:32 PM | Reply | Permalink
Not bad, but tracking polls won't seal this, hard work will. KEEP UP THE WORK!!
October 11, 2008 1:36 PM | Reply | Permalink
Not much Kash
There was no response from the Obama camp.
And the media is saying that she did not do anything wrong. So they are more saying that he will not change anything, and that this is a none issue...
The only thing that the pundits seem to agree on: it will be difficult for her to attack Obama on the "who he is" topic?
Today she accused Obama on his stand on abortion ...So she is still
attacking...
Sigh!!!
October 11, 2008 1:37 PM | Reply | Permalink
Which news organization?
October 11, 2008 1:39 PM | Reply | Permalink
Fox. Fox is the ONLY one reporting that she was "vindicated". The others are reading the McCain release that "claims" she was vindicated.
Two points:
1. Palin was found to have abused her power while in office.
2. The abuse of power contributed, but was not the sole factor in terminating Monegan.
Two very separate issues. Both very telling.
October 11, 2008 2:59 PM | Reply | Permalink
What media?
MSNBC was all over this and they sure as shit didn't say she'd done nothing wrong.
October 11, 2008 1:42 PM | Reply | Permalink
I checked the Dallas paper online - their lede on the story about it was: Report Finds Palin Abused Power.
What media?
October 11, 2008 1:43 PM | Reply | Permalink
LOL, Tena.
It's sorta funny -- I listened to NPR yesterday, and they reported those hate rallies and asked a woman in the audience for a quick comment, and she kinda snapped in anger "NBC, ABC, CBS, they are all on Obama's side!!!" But those on the democratic side have their own complaints.
Everyone agrees on FOX unanimously though.
October 11, 2008 1:47 PM | Reply | Permalink
That is funny to me - and especially the part about Fox - everyone knows what it is.
LOL!!!!
October 11, 2008 2:11 PM | Reply | Permalink
well I did watch MSNBC this morning. and it was all about the fact that she legally fired Molegan, and that she used her rights to do so. There was hardly any focus on the Abuse of Power...
And this when the pundits said that it was not going to impact the campaign...
October 11, 2008 1:43 PM | Reply | Permalink
We're two weeks out - so what if it doesn't have an impact? Obama's 8 up without Troopergate.
And just cause someone said so doesn't make it so.
Every paper I've looked at says: Palin Abused Power.
October 11, 2008 1:46 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yep: Palin Abused Power
is all over the news. And Howard Fineman kept reiterating the point that this was not good timing for McCain...
October 11, 2008 1:48 PM | Reply | Permalink
Obama's up 8 without troopergate, and he's up 10 without Zogby.
October 11, 2008 1:54 PM | Reply | Permalink
Hah!
Look what I just found over at OpenLeft:
October 11, 2008 2:00 PM | Reply | Permalink
I think you are talking about Chris Jansing. She is one of the anchors I don't like on msnbc. You can add Kelly O'Donnell to that list, who covers McCain's campaign for Brian Williams.
October 11, 2008 2:24 PM | Reply | Permalink
Biden to Palin: Don't lecture me on patriotism
http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2008/10/10/biden-to-palin-dont-lecture-me-on-patriotism/
"Sarah Palin had great fun saying Joe Biden thinks paying taxes is patriotic. Well, let me tell you what Joe Biden thinks," the Delaware senator said at an outdoor rally. "Joe Biden thinks that anybody who takes millions of dollars offshore to avoid paying their fair share is unpatriotic."
"That is not patriotic and it will stop, it will stop in an Obama-Biden administration! Enough! I've had it up to here! Don't lecture me on patriotism," shouted Biden, getting drowned out by the applause of his supporters. "I'm dead tired of being taken advantage of. I'm getting tired of it."
[on the attacks on Obama's character] "In my neighborhood you want to say something about me, look me in the eye and tell me," said Biden. "Say it to me straight up. Say it to me head on. That's the code, that's the ethics! Say it to me! Ladies and gentlemen, I'm tired of losing, I'm tired of taking this stuff, I've had enough."
October 11, 2008 3:03 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'm mad as hell, and I'm not gonna take it anymore!!!
October 11, 2008 3:13 PM | Reply | Permalink
Irving Berlin (among many other things author and composer of "God Bless America") used to say that he loved to pay taxes. As a refugee from Russia who felt that the U.S.A. had been very good to him, he felt a actual thrill when paying taxes.
That is NOT my point of view, and Berlin was an extremely rich man. But it's an attitude worthy of honor and it illustrates just how much this country has meant to many.
October 11, 2008 4:46 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yes Tena last night especially on Countdown, they were pushing it hard, but not this morning, at least not on the segment I saw...
KO is really the only to push these stories. He was the only one who pushed the AIP story, and the pastor story. Sometimes RM does it too...
October 11, 2008 1:46 PM | Reply | Permalink
Obama campaign has decided to treat Palin as a McCain surrogate and not as McCain's running mate.
that is why they walk around her.
October 11, 2008 1:46 PM | Reply | Permalink
And that's wise of them. She is dragging herself down with the entire ticket. No point in the Obama camp focusing on her.
October 11, 2008 1:53 PM | Reply | Permalink
Tena, I agree with you that there is a strong disconnect between the media and the voters...
If Obama had so many problems connecting with the voters, why he is able to raise so much money, and why the democrates are able to register that many new voters....
October 11, 2008 1:49 PM | Reply | Permalink
My point, actually, is that this time and at this stage, the disconnect is not that great.
They don't treat him like they treated Gore and Kerry - they don't treat Obama with thinly veiled contempt.
I think the press is undergoing a bit of a sea change.
October 11, 2008 1:58 PM | Reply | Permalink
The MSM have lower approval ratings that Congress. They would be best to get their act together. I, for one, am weary of the talking heads interupting one another and screaming over the tops of one another. Where is the civil discourse. We deserve that. This isn't Jerry Springer.
October 11, 2008 3:05 PM | Reply | Permalink
Absolutely - I hate the screamers.
October 11, 2008 5:27 PM | Reply | Permalink
I think Biden should raise the issue on the stump and keep the story alive for a few days. Not attack her too much, but just say:
"Do we want more power abusers in the White House?"
October 11, 2008 1:53 PM | Reply | Permalink
Speaking of which, that woman is really, really a Cheney with ovaries.