TPM Track Composite: Obama Ahead By More Than Eight Points
Here's our daily composite of the five major national tracking polls. This is the first day on which we have data collected entirely after the second presidential debate, and it shows, and it shows that Barack Obama has expanded his already-considerable lead since that debate:
• Gallup: Obama 51%, McCain 42%, with a ±2% margin of error, compared to a 51%-41% Obama lead yesterday.
• Rasmussen: Obama 52%, McCain 45%, with a ±2% margin of error, compared to a 50%-45% Obama lead from yesterday.
• Hotline/Diageo: Obama 50%, McCain 40%, with a ±3.4% margin of error, compared to a 48%-41% Obama lead yesterday.
• Research 2000: Obama 52%, McCain 40%, with a ±3% margin of error, unchanged from yesterday.
• Zogby: Obama 48%, McCain 44%, with a ±2.9% margin of error, compared to a 48%-43% Obama lead yesterday.
Adding these polls together and weighting them by the square roots of their sample sizes, Obama is ahead 50.8%-42.5%, a lead of more than eight points, compared to a 50.0%-42.2% Obama lead yesterday. In the data collected before the debate, the score was Obama 49.7%, McCain 43.2%.
The entire average is being skewed by unreliable, ill-reputed Zogby.
October 11, 2008 1:11 PM | Reply | Permalink
What is the deal with Zogby?
~
October 11, 2008 1:18 PM | Reply | Permalink
Zogby's polling doesn't seem that far off. It's his party ID weighting that's screwy, and out of step with everyone else.
I suppose it serves as a "potential worst case" boundary poll. But in reporting multiple tracking poll averages, it might be wise to exclude them.
October 11, 2008 2:16 PM | Reply | Permalink
Zogby is complete crap. I don't include him in my methodology.
Right now, without zogby, I have it at Obama +9.1:
http://demockracy.com/tracking-poll-update-obama-91/
October 11, 2008 2:20 PM | Reply | Permalink
Nate Silver says the fat lady is warming up...
http://blogs.tnr.com/tnr/blogs/the_plank/archive/2008/10/10/today-s-polls-the-fat-lady-has-entered-the-building.aspx
http://pufferfish.typepad.com/
October 11, 2008 2:49 PM | Reply | Permalink
Check out InTrade today!
Obama 79, McCain 21.5
October 11, 2008 4:09 PM | Reply | Permalink
The most valuable of all the polls.
October 11, 2008 4:29 PM | Reply | Permalink
Indeed.
October 11, 2008 5:45 PM | Reply | Permalink
Following up on this thread, I just went through the tracking polls for the past month, graphed
it all out, and the movement has been unbelievable:
Tracking Obama's Rise in the Polls
October 11, 2008 4:51 PM | Reply | Permalink
McCain's Even Trailing in Hypothetical Race Against ‘That One’
http://satiricalpolitical.com/?p=3827
October 11, 2008 1:23 PM | Reply | Permalink
Doesn't Zogby use the 2004 numbers for weighting averages? Nate Silver has written about Zogby a bit, and I believe that is his main criticism.
October 11, 2008 1:23 PM | Reply | Permalink
Here is a thing about Zogby: During the early stage of primaries, he was the only to have Obama way ahead in all places. People in media and pollsters started ridiculing him. So now, as a weird correction of his past mistakes, he's subtracting 5 points from Obama's actual poll numbers in the survey. Doing so, he's looking again ridiculous.
October 11, 2008 1:57 PM | Reply | Permalink
all polls are based on 2004 numbers that is the good thing for us as we know the numbers that obama has got registered for the first time so the polls are all under showing his real position
October 11, 2008 8:44 PM | Reply | Permalink
This is all fabulous news but we can't rest easy just yet. Now is the time to ratchet it up and seal the deal. Either volunteer - canvassing, making phone calls, or helping out in your local Obama office - or donate so that someone else can do those things on your behalf.
In other words, Keep up the good work. I know plenty of y'all are doing a ton already and as you can see it's working but we're not done yet!
October 11, 2008 1:24 PM | Reply | Permalink
Sigh. Why can't Obama break 55?
October 11, 2008 1:24 PM | Reply | Permalink
LOL!
Hey - congratulations on living in a civilized state - y'all recognized equal protection for what it is!
October 11, 2008 1:28 PM | Reply | Permalink
Connecticut is so very sane. It really is. Even the Republicans are sane.
We just have that one ugly little reminder that sometimes, we drift off the sanity train: Joe Lieberman.
October 11, 2008 1:32 PM | Reply | Permalink
I can tell.
Never been further into Connecticut than Greenwich - my first husband was picking up a painting that a woman was loaning to the Fort Worth Art Museum (it's now the Fort Worth Modern) and I was with him. It was all huge estates with huge mean guard dogs where we were, but it was so beautiful.
And I never wanted to steal a painting so much in my life - it was an Agnes Martin and one of the most beautiful Agnes Martin's I've ever seen and she's my favorite painter.
*sigh*. But it was October and we drove all the way back from there to Dallas and that was a really cool trip. Virginia was stunning!
October 11, 2008 2:07 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'd say October is about the best month to be in CT. Today, it's 70 and there's not a cloud in the sky. The trees are turning, and the colors are spectacular. Fall in New England makes winter bearable. Mostly.
October 11, 2008 3:21 PM | Reply | Permalink
Pretty much true, recent gubernatorial antics notwithstanding. I'm sure y'all miss Ella Grasso.
Lowell Weicker comes to mind.
Notably, it was CT that had its anti-contraception law struck down in 1965 (Griswold v. CT). The finding of a Constitutional right to privacy in that case paved the way for Roe v. Wade eight years later.
October 11, 2008 3:03 PM | Reply | Permalink
Education, education, education. Except, of course, in the inner cities. But genearlly everyone is so well educated in CT.
October 11, 2008 3:07 PM | Reply | Permalink
Good question. I fret that he won't be able to cling to that slender lead for much longer ;)
October 11, 2008 2:18 PM | Reply | Permalink
Zogby = random number generator
October 11, 2008 1:26 PM | Reply | Permalink
Zogby used the following breakdown
40% D
38% R
And tomorrow we will have a sense if abuse of power would impact pitbull...
And it also confirms that the attacks are not working...
October 11, 2008 1:27 PM | Reply | Permalink
From mydd:
In other words, Zogby is weighting Democrats and Republicans almost equally, which seems pretty nutty.
October 11, 2008 1:29 PM | Reply | Permalink
It's more than just the weighting of Dem-Repub. It's also the age skew favoring the Repubs. They underestimate both elements of the Obama Ground Game - Dem voter registration, and the appeal to younger voters.
On the second, I know that a lot of old time Nixon Republicans are having "McGovern Youth Vote" flashbacks, thinking that Obama is drawing a mythical age block that won't show up.
What they're missing is that when we talking about "younger voters", we mean younger than that 50+ demo that the Republicans are dominating. Obama isn't just pulling in the 18-24's, but also a lot of the 24-45's that have been really jaded over the years and/or were drinking the Bush-Rove kool aid.
Zogby is missing the boat on that. They're not the only one that hasn't adjusted. It seems like a lot of the pools weren't paying close attention to the primaries/cacuses. It's possible that they misread some of them since interest wasn't strong on the Repub side, which in turn skews their numbers towards the age range that "always votes" rather than the groups getting swept up in a election that's moving them.
John
October 11, 2008 1:46 PM | Reply | Permalink
Two Questions:
1. Does anyone know the coverage of the Palin abuse on MSM? I mean CNN and MSNBC.
2. Has Obama camp released a statement on the findings of the last night's report?
October 11, 2008 1:32 PM | Reply | Permalink
Last night, both CNN and MSNBC had "Breaking News" banners that read: Palin abused power.
This morning, it seemed most of the focus was on the Paulson announcement.
October 11, 2008 1:35 PM | Reply | Permalink
Want to laugh?
Go over to Drudge and see if you can find the story about Palin. Hilarious.
October 11, 2008 1:37 PM | Reply | Permalink
Drudge is like a jr. high pimple-faced post-pubescent teenboy, with a crush on a slutty-dressing lady teacher...
His lifelong battle with male insecurity won't allow him to trash the woman he loves, no matter how newsworthy...
October 11, 2008 3:27 PM | Reply | Permalink
Last night, MSNBC devoted Olbermann's entire show (Olbermann was out) almost to the Troopergate report and everybody skewered Palin.
What I found interesting was the very thinly disguised contempt in the voices of the journalists and the people they were talking to about it. The contempt for Palin is out front at this point.
October 11, 2008 1:40 PM | Reply | Permalink
CBS Radio news was still on the tire swing last night.
They talked about the partisan nature of the report, that it was prepared by a Dem investigator, and that some Dems had previously touted it as a pending October Surprise.
Reduced it to he-said, she-said.
October 11, 2008 3:08 PM | Reply | Permalink
Thanks CT, I could remember the 2% gap, and I remember reading this somewhere..
BTW, McWar kept pushing the Ayers story after he "defended Obama", so now he is attacking Obama behind the doors....
What a crook. He really has no honor left!!!
October 11, 2008 1:32 PM | Reply | Permalink
Not bad, but tracking polls won't seal this, hard work will. KEEP UP THE WORK!!
October 11, 2008 1:36 PM | Reply | Permalink
Not much Kash
There was no response from the Obama camp.
And the media is saying that she did not do anything wrong. So they are more saying that he will not change anything, and that this is a none issue...
The only thing that the pundits seem to agree on: it will be difficult for her to attack Obama on the "who he is" topic?
Today she accused Obama on his stand on abortion ...So she is still
attacking...
Sigh!!!
October 11, 2008 1:37 PM | Reply | Permalink
Which news organization?
October 11, 2008 1:39 PM | Reply | Permalink
Fox. Fox is the ONLY one reporting that she was "vindicated". The others are reading the McCain release that "claims" she was vindicated.
Two points:
1. Palin was found to have abused her power while in office.
2. The abuse of power contributed, but was not the sole factor in terminating Monegan.
Two very separate issues. Both very telling.
October 11, 2008 2:59 PM | Reply | Permalink
What media?
MSNBC was all over this and they sure as shit didn't say she'd done nothing wrong.
October 11, 2008 1:42 PM | Reply | Permalink
I checked the Dallas paper online - their lede on the story about it was: Report Finds Palin Abused Power.
What media?
October 11, 2008 1:43 PM | Reply | Permalink
LOL, Tena.
It's sorta funny -- I listened to NPR yesterday, and they reported those hate rallies and asked a woman in the audience for a quick comment, and she kinda snapped in anger "NBC, ABC, CBS, they are all on Obama's side!!!" But those on the democratic side have their own complaints.
Everyone agrees on FOX unanimously though.
October 11, 2008 1:47 PM | Reply | Permalink
That is funny to me - and especially the part about Fox - everyone knows what it is.
LOL!!!!
October 11, 2008 2:11 PM | Reply | Permalink
well I did watch MSNBC this morning. and it was all about the fact that she legally fired Molegan, and that she used her rights to do so. There was hardly any focus on the Abuse of Power...
And this when the pundits said that it was not going to impact the campaign...
October 11, 2008 1:43 PM | Reply | Permalink
We're two weeks out - so what if it doesn't have an impact? Obama's 8 up without Troopergate.
And just cause someone said so doesn't make it so.
Every paper I've looked at says: Palin Abused Power.
October 11, 2008 1:46 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yep: Palin Abused Power
is all over the news. And Howard Fineman kept reiterating the point that this was not good timing for McCain...
October 11, 2008 1:48 PM | Reply | Permalink
Obama's up 8 without troopergate, and he's up 10 without Zogby.
October 11, 2008 1:54 PM | Reply | Permalink
Hah!
Look what I just found over at OpenLeft:
October 11, 2008 2:00 PM | Reply | Permalink
I think you are talking about Chris Jansing. She is one of the anchors I don't like on msnbc. You can add Kelly O'Donnell to that list, who covers McCain's campaign for Brian Williams.
October 11, 2008 2:24 PM | Reply | Permalink
Biden to Palin: Don't lecture me on patriotism
http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2008/10/10/biden-to-palin-dont-lecture-me-on-patriotism/
"Sarah Palin had great fun saying Joe Biden thinks paying taxes is patriotic. Well, let me tell you what Joe Biden thinks," the Delaware senator said at an outdoor rally. "Joe Biden thinks that anybody who takes millions of dollars offshore to avoid paying their fair share is unpatriotic."
"That is not patriotic and it will stop, it will stop in an Obama-Biden administration! Enough! I've had it up to here! Don't lecture me on patriotism," shouted Biden, getting drowned out by the applause of his supporters. "I'm dead tired of being taken advantage of. I'm getting tired of it."
[on the attacks on Obama's character] "In my neighborhood you want to say something about me, look me in the eye and tell me," said Biden. "Say it to me straight up. Say it to me head on. That's the code, that's the ethics! Say it to me! Ladies and gentlemen, I'm tired of losing, I'm tired of taking this stuff, I've had enough."
October 11, 2008 3:03 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'm mad as hell, and I'm not gonna take it anymore!!!
October 11, 2008 3:13 PM | Reply | Permalink
Irving Berlin (among many other things author and composer of "God Bless America") used to say that he loved to pay taxes. As a refugee from Russia who felt that the U.S.A. had been very good to him, he felt a actual thrill when paying taxes.
That is NOT my point of view, and Berlin was an extremely rich man. But it's an attitude worthy of honor and it illustrates just how much this country has meant to many.
October 11, 2008 4:46 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yes Tena last night especially on Countdown, they were pushing it hard, but not this morning, at least not on the segment I saw...
KO is really the only to push these stories. He was the only one who pushed the AIP story, and the pastor story. Sometimes RM does it too...
October 11, 2008 1:46 PM | Reply | Permalink
Obama campaign has decided to treat Palin as a McCain surrogate and not as McCain's running mate.
that is why they walk around her.
October 11, 2008 1:46 PM | Reply | Permalink
And that's wise of them. She is dragging herself down with the entire ticket. No point in the Obama camp focusing on her.
October 11, 2008 1:53 PM | Reply | Permalink
Tena, I agree with you that there is a strong disconnect between the media and the voters...
If Obama had so many problems connecting with the voters, why he is able to raise so much money, and why the democrates are able to register that many new voters....
October 11, 2008 1:49 PM | Reply | Permalink
My point, actually, is that this time and at this stage, the disconnect is not that great.
They don't treat him like they treated Gore and Kerry - they don't treat Obama with thinly veiled contempt.
I think the press is undergoing a bit of a sea change.
October 11, 2008 1:58 PM | Reply | Permalink
The MSM have lower approval ratings that Congress. They would be best to get their act together. I, for one, am weary of the talking heads interupting one another and screaming over the tops of one another. Where is the civil discourse. We deserve that. This isn't Jerry Springer.
October 11, 2008 3:05 PM | Reply | Permalink
Absolutely - I hate the screamers.
October 11, 2008 5:27 PM | Reply | Permalink
I think Biden should raise the issue on the stump and keep the story alive for a few days. Not attack her too much, but just say:
"Do we want more power abusers in the White House?"
October 11, 2008 1:53 PM | Reply | Permalink
Speaking of which, that woman is really, really a Cheney with ovaries.
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20081011/ap_on_el_pr/palin_church_and_state
October 11, 2008 1:55 PM | Reply | Permalink
Do we want Dick Cheney in a skirt in the White House?
~
October 11, 2008 1:55 PM | Reply | Permalink
Dick Cheney hast ten times the brains of Sarah Palin. Hell, your average border collie has five times her brains.
October 11, 2008 2:01 PM | Reply | Permalink
Word!
Like I told Mr. Tena - it's a terrifying realization that we didn't scrape the bottom of the barrel with Bush-Cheney - but by god we didn't. This ticket is far more insane -
October 11, 2008 2:09 PM | Reply | Permalink
LOL!
O/T: I love your comments, NCSteve.
October 11, 2008 2:10 PM | Reply | Permalink
I do too and I love the avatar.
October 11, 2008 2:14 PM | Reply | Permalink
Was listening to a local progressive radio station. The screener said a listener called in to say they call Palin:
October 11, 2008 9:52 PM | Reply | Permalink
Hi, sorry if I'm rehashing something old.
Why are you weighting polls by the square root of their sample sizes in the averages? I'd assumed people did that linearly, essentially pretending it was all one poll.
Suppose we had Poll A and Poll B. Poll A has a sample size of 100, Poll B of 400. Poll A says 50% Obama, Poll B says 60% Obama. If you weight the two by their square roots, your weighted average is 56.66%, right?
But suppose the two had been released in aggregate, as a single poll with sample size 500. It would have the 50 Obama voters from poll A, and the 240 from poll B, for a result of 58%.
So why should the same polling data be expressed differently depending on whether it's in one poll or two?
October 11, 2008 2:11 PM | Reply | Permalink
Check out "Chi-square test" in Wikipedia. If you still don't understand take an introductory course in statistics. I realize that this may sound flip, but I am serious.
BTW: Chi-square has nothing to do with "Chicago-style politics".
Enough blog reading, I am going out to canvass.
October 11, 2008 2:44 PM | Reply | Permalink
The chi-square Wiki page is pretty opaque.
Even so, Eric's use of square-root weighting seems like a misapplication of chi-square. The populations he's summing are much more correlated than independent.
October 11, 2008 3:23 PM | Reply | Permalink
By all means go canvas, but I am familiar with statistical concepts and I still don't think the averaging method makes sense here; it's overthinking the problem, applying an unnecessary layer of abstraction.
If one pollster says he polled n people and x% were voting for Obama, and another pollster polled m people and y% were voting for Obama, then we can summarize that by noting that (x% * n) + (y% * m) out of (m + n) were voting for Obama. Just treat each individual pollee equally.
I realize that it's not always quite that simple because pollsters may weight their results or have other differences in methodology. But there's no reason to think weighting schemes or methodology improve in proportion to the root of the sample size, so if you're going to use a non-linear weighting scheme it should be derived from a regression analysis like at fivethirtyeight.com.
Otherwise, if I ever become a pollster, I'll make sure to release my numbers divided into extremely small chunks, thus granting them extra weight. If I release a poll with sample size 100 as one hundred polls of sample size 1 each, it'll be factored into the average as though it were a poll with sample size 10000.
October 11, 2008 3:24 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'm with you. You posed a rhetorical question as a counter-example to square-root weighting. BillBella's reply was undeservedly dismissive.
He suggested reading the Wiki article on the chi-square test. I suggest that he read that article before suggesting it helps understand the square-root-weighting issue.
I'd also suggest to him that he give a two- or three-paragraph answer to your question. shouldn't be that hard.
The mathematics of statistics is complicated but unambiguous. How it's applied to real-world situations can be very ambiguous.
October 11, 2008 3:41 PM | Reply | Permalink
Jzap and histocrat,
Mea culpa and apologies. I should never hit "SEND" when I am in a hurry. You are right, the Chi-square test as explained on Wikipedia is not very clear or helpful. I apologize in particular to anyone that read the whole thing (like I just did). I was trying to allude to the idea that a sample that is twice as big does not have twice the "goodness". "Goodness" varies with the square root of the sample size.
I like histocrat's example of the clever pollster that breaks a large poll into many smaller polls in order to get proportionally more weight in the (root-weighted) average. Conversely, if equal weighting were used then the clever pollster could double his poll sample so that his poll would get twice as much weight in the aggregate average. And yet, according to my reading of sampling theory, his poll does not have twice "goodness" of a smaller poll.
Also at issue seems to be the question of whether or not all polling results are fungible. To me there seems to be wide differences in the polling organizations and their proprietary methods. In the current world of disagreements a small point and one that I will quickly concede that there is plenty of room for honest argument. Enter the domain of ambiguity...
To change the subject, I had a wonderful afternoon of canvassing. Knocked on 58 doors, talked to 30 voters and directly influenced 5 or 6 undecided voters. Compared to other neighborhoods that I have canvassed it had a lot of registered independents. I think that means that (locally) we have worked our way through the heavily Democratic neighborhoods and are now going into more marginal regions. Three weekends to go!
Tomorrow I have 35 lawn signs to deliver and it is getting late--I likely won't be checking back in on this thread. Again, please forgive my clumsy post.
October 12, 2008 1:08 AM | Reply | Permalink
Hey Mr BB, thanks for all your efforts out there in the field!
Indeed. The MoE goes down proportionally to the square root of the sample size.
Have fun out there tomorrow!
October 12, 2008 1:55 AM | Reply | Permalink
I hope MSNBC especially Matthews and Gregory are going to stop pushing the Ayers story. It is becoming silly at this point...
They keep talking about :"Who is Obama?", why don't they about McWar connections, Singlaub, Keating.
Keating was doing business with Poodle for at least 10 years after the Keating 5 scandal. She and her father got plenty of money from Keating, and McWar is saying he did not about his wife's activities...
October 11, 2008 2:13 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'm with Tena on this about Matthews. I think he's been very critical of the McCain campaign's tactics.
I'll agree, though, that Gregory is a total asshat. My impersonation of Gregory on election night, "Does the fact that Obama didn't break 500 electoral votes mean that his presidency is, in fact, already a disaster?"
October 11, 2008 4:39 PM | Reply | Permalink
Dude, I saw Chris Matthews last night make mincemeat out of the Ayers story.
He absolutely tore it up and set it on fire.
October 11, 2008 2:19 PM | Reply | Permalink
Considering the fact that Matthews was the prime recycler of the Swift Boat lies in 2004, this is indeed an indication of major differences in media coverage this year.
October 11, 2008 3:49 PM | Reply | Permalink
If only Catholics in Africa could vote and show American Catholics the way (even though polls show Obama is leading among us, too). This guy talks sense about the issues in a way that lacks the single-issue myopia so common here:
An African bishop for Obama
Posted on Oct 11, 2008 11:56am CST.
By JOHN L. ALLEN JR.
Rome
While American bishops are usually circumspect about declaring their electoral preferences, at least one African prelate currently attending the Synod of Bishops in Rome feels no such scruples. Archbishop John Onaiyekan of Abuja, Nigeria, said today he would “obviously” vote for Barak Obama if he could cast a ballot on Nov. 4.
Known as a strong advocate for social justice, Onaiyekan said Obama’s pro-choice record wouldn’t stop him from voting for the Democrat.
“The fact that you oppose abortion doesn’t necessarily mean that you are pro-life,” Onaiyekan said in an interview with NCR. “You can be anti-abortion and still be killing people by the millions through war, through poverty, and so on.”
A past president of the African bishops’ conference, Onaiyekan is widely seen as a spokesperson for Catholicism in Africa. During the synod, he was tapped to deliver a continental report on behalf of the African bishops.
Onaiyekan said the election of an African-American president would have positive repercussions for America’s image in the developing world.
“It would mean that for the first time, we would begin to think that the Americans are really serious in the things they say, about freedom, equality, and all that,” he said. “For a long time, we’ve been feeling that you don’t really mean it, that they’re just words.”
Onaiyekan said he’s aware that many American Catholics have reservations about Obama because of his stand on abortion, but he looks at it differently.
“Of course I believe that abortion is wrong, that it’s killing innocent life,” he said. “I also believe, however, that those who are against abortion should be consistent.
“If my choice is between a person who makes room for abortion, but who is really pro-life in terms of justice in the world, peace in the world, I will prefer him to somebody who doesn’t support abortion but who is driving millions of people in the world to death,” Onaiyekan said.
“It’s a whole package, and you never get a politician who will please you in everything,” he said. “You always have to pick and choose.”
Onaiyekan also addressed the current economic crisis, saying that it could actually be good news for poor countries if it means a fundamental overhaul of what he regards as “unjust” global structures.
“There’s a system there which keeps poor nations in poverty, no matter what efforts we make,” Onaiyekan said. “People in the poor nations are neither lazy nor stupid. They work hard and get nothing for it, or worse, they work hard and other people take it away.”
“Both in Europe and in America, there’s a call now for a major review of what’s happening, that it’s not going to be ‘business as usual’ anymore. Those of us in poor countries should consider that a welcome development, provided that in the new structure which is going to be built, truth and justice will play a stronger role.”
The Synod of Bishops on the Bible runs Oct. 5-26 in Rome.
http://ncrcafe.org/node/2181
October 11, 2008 2:30 PM | Reply | Permalink
The resurgence of Catholic Liberation Theology.
I love it!
October 11, 2008 2:44 PM | Reply | Permalink
Actually, it's what the Pope has been saying on the subject all along. He just can't say it with reference to individuals. And the late Cardinal Bernadin always spoke in exactly the same terms, calling it Christ's "seamless garment" -- that you couldn't separate abortion from genocide, war, etc.
October 11, 2008 4:24 PM | Reply | Permalink
I wish I'd been here when you posted that because I'd really like to ask you something - I have no problem with anyone's religious beliefs just as long as they don't insist that I live by them.
I can respect Catholic ideas about abortion; what I cannot respect is those Catholics who've gone over into partnership with the religious right actively opposing it for everyone.
It's a matter of individual conscience and I wish the Catholic Church would step off.
October 11, 2008 5:04 PM | Reply | Permalink
I completely agree with you -- until your last sentence, perhaps. The individual conscience OF CATHOLICS is where a great part of their religion dwells. That is very much the province of the tecahing church that they voluntarily keep fellowship with and make themselves disciples of.
But, when it comes to other people's consciences, the most the church can legitimately be is a resource for thought.
So we are probably in entire agreement.
October 11, 2008 5:17 PM | Reply | Permalink
Vis-a-vis Catholics, I totally agree.
I'm talking about the anti-choice crusading Catholics and those who have become such single issue voters they won't listen to reason.
I have a feeling a bunch of them may abandon that principle this time. I hope so.
October 11, 2008 5:25 PM | Reply | Permalink
Complicated subject, but I mostly agree with you. Those who try to force their will upon their fellow citizens are going beyond religion into a certain view of politics.
If Catholics were procuring abortions at a significantly different rate from the rest of the population, then there'd be more point to the rantings of such folks. But, lacking that, it looks suspiciously like right-wingers just trying to get the state to do what the preachers have failed to do.
A no-no.
October 11, 2008 7:36 PM | Reply | Permalink
Earlier looked at the state graphs and pool, Palin is the only rational explanation for the dramatic shift starting in late September. At this point Obama campaign, field operations, television ads, down ballot races, and financial resources/staff are being focused to decidedly win this contest.
True, it is not over nor should focus be deceased as it is very important to have compelling wins at all levels. This means reducing the Republicans to the southeast states, Gulf of Mexico regions, and the lightly populated western plain and Mountain states. These regions have about twenty states with fewer proportional electorial votes due to their populations. This will end the dominance of folks as Trent Lott, Orin Hatch, Mitch O'Connell, Ted Stevens, Chambliss etc. The point being larger populated and industrialized states tends not to elect these type characters(Rick Santorum); for now they can keep Texas, but only for now. It seems under the memes but in these polls, these are the real deals......
October 11, 2008 2:36 PM | Reply | Permalink
Pool? polls!
October 11, 2008 2:38 PM | Reply | Permalink
Is Palin truly the ONLY possible explanation?
What happened to Bush-Cheney, the corrupt Republicans in Congress, bellicose boondoggles, and global ecconomic collapse?
October 11, 2008 5:12 PM | Reply | Permalink
O/T --- It appears that Todd and Sarah worked the system to get their lakeside mansion built. Sounds a little like the Ted Stevens approach:
http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2008/10/11/111018/34/47/627460
October 11, 2008 2:37 PM | Reply | Permalink
Very interesting. I would imagine that a $552k lakeside home in Alaska would be the equivalent of a $2.5 mil to $4.0 mil ocean view (not ocean front, which would be more) home here is California. It is all relative.
Knowing what we know about the Palins (not much, but none of it good) it only makes sense that they worked the system on their behalf.
Thanks for the link. I hope everyone reads this and it gains some momentum.
October 11, 2008 3:12 PM | Reply | Permalink
New angle seems to be highlighting the "Obama Supporter" who interrupts McCain at his rallies, or protests outside his rally site as some sort of counterpoint to McCain's hatemonger rallies and "Terrorist", "Kill Him" or "Off with his head" shouts.
October 11, 2008 3:27 PM | Reply | Permalink
Hmmm. Alleged Obama supporters inside his rally, shouting and interrupting -- those I'd suspect of being plants.
October 11, 2008 3:44 PM | Reply | Permalink
THIS IS GREAT NEWS FOR MCCAIN???????
October 11, 2008 3:27 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'm still stuck on the 65+ voters swinging to Obama. Unbe-freakin-lievable!
October 11, 2008 3:31 PM | Reply | Permalink
Hee hee! It's all pretty freakin unbelievable - especially after the beating we've been taking for the last 8 years. Longer, really - since Clinton's second term.
October 11, 2008 3:42 PM | Reply | Permalink
Old folks know what it's like to be old.
October 11, 2008 4:01 PM | Reply | Permalink
Truer words were never spoke, Jonze.
They do indeed.
October 11, 2008 5:01 PM | Reply | Permalink
Old folks remember the Great Depression.
October 11, 2008 5:18 PM | Reply | Permalink
and I remember the stories they told me about it.
My parents were older - they lived through it. It's very vivid to me.
October 11, 2008 5:21 PM | Reply | Permalink
1.He wants to privatize SS
2.He wants to cut Medicare and Medicaid
3..................Well those two will do the job rather quickly.
October 11, 2008 4:13 PM | Reply | Permalink
My dad is 81, and lives in Ohio. He voted for Bush in 2000 and Kerry in 2004. The last time I talked to him, he said there was no way he'd vote for McCain "since he chose that stupid woman". I suspect there are lots more 65 and older folks around the country who feel the same way.
October 11, 2008 3:57 PM | Reply | Permalink
Word! Mom and SDad live in Arizona and they are posting a straight Dem ticket. Says Ma, "I can't decide which one of them is more stupid." Says SDa, "I already knew McCain to be a big fraud. I can't believe he found someone dumb enough to be his running mate. In that sense he really exceeded my expectations. Palin is quite possibly the dumbest person I've ever encountered."
October 11, 2008 4:17 PM | Reply | Permalink
God I have brilliant timing. I got home from running errands at exactly the same moment there was huge thunder boom and the heavens opened up.
October 11, 2008 4:59 PM | Reply | Permalink
2008 Florida Presidential General Election:
McCain vs Obama
Obama - 50.2%
McCain 44.6%
http://www.pollster.com/polls/fl/08-fl-pres-ge-mvo.php
McCain is in Davenport, Iowa today.
Obama - 53.2%
McCain - 41.8%
http://www.pollster.com/polls/ia/08-ia-pres-ge-mvo.php
McCain is running the stupidest campaign in history.
October 11, 2008 5:16 PM | Reply | Permalink
And the weirdest.
and Bush is getting weirder lately. He actually has said he's glad this crisis happened when he was still in office so that the next president doesn't get the blame, basically.
[[[[shakesheadreallyhardtogetbrainsunscrambled]]]]
October 11, 2008 5:20 PM | Reply | Permalink
Franken's going to win here in Minnesota. Yesterday Coleman published an announcement asking all his supporters to suspend negative campaigning. Haven't had the TV on yet today.
October 11, 2008 5:19 PM | Reply | Permalink
Motocat, I think we're looking at a near Democratic sweep - coast to coast.
October 11, 2008 5:23 PM | Reply | Permalink
It would be great to bolster the lead in the House and ratchet up the Senate near Override Land. Obamatimism. Like Optimism with a Plan.
October 11, 2008 5:55 PM | Reply | Permalink
The Franken ad that catches Norm distorting the clip of Franken talking about Wellstone ought to be worth about 100,000 votes.
October 11, 2008 6:11 PM | Reply | Permalink
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/10/10/AR2008101002456.html?nav=hcmodule
OT, but it's the weekend.
on another note, i did not get attacked, burned at the stake, or otherwise maimed while canvassing today in northern virginia.
i WILL say that the new booklet put out by the campaign to be given to people or left at their doors is AWESOME.
October 11, 2008 5:23 PM | Reply | Permalink
Thank you so much for canvassing. You're a good person.
So, how did it go, besides the fact that you're still in one piece?
October 11, 2008 5:26 PM | Reply | Permalink
not many people home. it's beautiful here today, so that's not a surprise.
the lists are really being pared down now. i used to get a lot of "strong obama," and now i don't (those people don't get return visits until election day). i only had one rude guy who slammed the door in my face, but i had one "lean obama" who talked with me for around 45 minutes.
i also had a guy who was "strong warner" (dem senate) and "strong connelly" (dem congress) but was "undecided" for president. he is 82 years old. i think race might be the issue. we talked for an hour ... not so much about politics but about how our town used to look 50 years ago (he told me where all the dirt roads were, blah blah blah). he told me that if mccain would say that he would have the combat troops home in the next four years, he would vote for mccain. then he said, "he just won't say it." i agreed.
i'm hoping that spending time with him, getting to know him, will show him that it's okay to support obama, that those who support obama aren't crackpot terror-lovers, that we're normal, decent people who love our families (we talked a lot about our families) who love our country and want things to get better.
anyway, the ground game here is OUT OF THIS WORLD. 6 canvassing shifts each weekend (3 per day) out of each staging ground (of which there are COUNTLESS numbers ... probably in the hundreds just in fairfax county). phone calls and canvassing every evening during the week. great flyers and literature.
and the GOTV effort is going to be UNBELIEVABLE. we were briefed on election day strategy a bit today -- each supporter and undecided is going to be personally visited up to three times ON ELECTION DAY ALONE (i say "up to" because the visits stop once the person has voted).
October 11, 2008 5:36 PM | Reply | Permalink
Wow - what a wonderful comment - thanks for sharing.
I can imagine that it would be difficult for someone that age. I know my mother would have fallen totally for Obama, but I can't figure out what my dad would have done - probably ended up going with Obama because of Palin. Unless Dad was feeling whimsical when he voted.
I had the most amazing flash of what if? a little while ago when I was reading the article about Bush and his statement that it's a good thing he's in charge. The article ends up being different than it begins - I already said he really did say in so many words that he was glad it happened now and we could get something working on it before the next president takes over, so the crisis wouldn't be blamed on them. I thought - HUH?
Then I had this flash: I think George Bush and Laura Bush just might go into those voting booths and touch that screen next to Obama's name.
Just a little psychic hunch. They don't like McCain and Laura was a librarian and they don't as a rule cotton to book burners.
October 11, 2008 5:44 PM | Reply | Permalink
George will certainly vote for Obama. It's been a long time since he's been allowed to play outside the fence in the front yard. He's basically a naughty frat boy. Maybe more like Dennis the Menace on acid.
October 11, 2008 5:58 PM | Reply | Permalink
I really think they both will. I would be more than willing to bet that Laura doesn't like Palin and has never liked McCain, either.
I would love to know but we never will, most likely. Bet anyone their daughters vote Obama.
October 11, 2008 6:10 PM | Reply | Permalink
Don't know if anyone's seen this yet: Lewis invokes Wallace, McCain wants Obama repudiation:
http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/10/11/mccain.lewis/index.html
October 11, 2008 6:03 PM | Reply | Permalink
That's not a good idea. McCain's crowds are so over the top no one needs to compare them to anybody. People can figure it out.
October 11, 2008 6:09 PM | Reply | Permalink
For once I agree. I'd really like to see everyone's rhetoric ratcheted back about 6 times.
These are the kind of times that provoke unhinged people to do unhinged things - on both sides.
Enough please - let's not turn John Mclame into a martyr, either.
October 11, 2008 6:12 PM | Reply | Permalink
Lewis is dated; the problem is he does not recognize it. In short he gave McCain an easy shot at Obama; Lewis should have known better. During the primaries he did much the same, overstated his point; he found religion when he got a serious opponent for his House seat. Herein Carville is the key: trowing them an anvil! Yes, Enough!!!!!
October 11, 2008 6:20 PM | Reply | Permalink
Obama should have pointed out that McCain named Lewis as one of the three people he'd seek advice from as President at the Saddleback Forum.
October 11, 2008 6:35 PM | Reply | Permalink
You know, I agree. I don't think that was the best angle to take, and he doesn't want to be accused in going "over the top."
But he's John Lewis. He knows of what he speaks. He got his head cracked in Selma so I could sit safe in a home of my choosing, in a neighborhood of my choosing to have an opinion and share it.
What pisses me off is that stupid McKlan had a statement about it. You want to know courage, asshole? John Lewis is ALL about courage and is self-made MAN, not some overgrown, petulant spoiled brat in an old man's body.
October 11, 2008 9:18 PM | Reply | Permalink
Obama's response -
October 11, 2008 6:15 PM | Reply | Permalink
Obama also sent a list of articles as to make sure not to throw Rep. Lewis under-the-bus -
October 11, 2008 6:18 PM | Reply | Permalink
You know what it is, don't you, Jonze? What's really wrong with that handful of nut jobs? They know it's over for them.
The Good Times are over for our 26% who are racists, head trauma victims, and religious zealots. Bush brought them out from under their rocks. Time to go back.
October 11, 2008 6:37 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'm already unhinged - the last 6 weeks have been uncomfortably close to John Titor's predictions and it's freaking me out.
No wars started between the Democrats and what's left of the Repugs - please.
October 11, 2008 6:14 PM | Reply | Permalink
A neighbor of mine put up a McAlin' yard sign two days ago. Today it's gone. I think there' going to be a big impact from Trooper gate and the McCain apology/concession yesterday.
October 11, 2008 6:17 PM | Reply | Permalink
I should have mentioned I live in Texas.
October 11, 2008 6:17 PM | Reply | Permalink
O I hope you're right.
and he really did concede yesterday to that rally. I swear he did!
October 11, 2008 6:19 PM | Reply | Permalink
I think those two events are going to drive down the enthusiasm of the base and nullify the excitement that the Palin pick roused.
As said on Olbermann last night: He's got himself in to a no-win situation, where his every move is going to have a negative impact on the campaign. Far too many bad moves to undo this close to the election. If McCain had started to behave like a real human being 6 weeks ago I think it might have worked, but way to late now to regain the middle ground and let the base forget about his capitulation.
October 11, 2008 7:17 PM | Reply | Permalink
So, prior to the Troopergate report, did Palin ever acknowledge that she herself had in fact contacted Monegan about Wooten? I know that at one point she had to admit people in her office had pressured Monegan, but I thought she continued to deny personal involvement. The report is pretty damning as far as that goes, documenting numerous entertaining instances of direct involvement.
Kinda disappointed her public denials aren't getting revisited in the press today.
October 11, 2008 6:18 PM | Reply | Permalink
Most people are followers. You get a party realignment when one party becomes socially unacceptable. David Brooks had a column on this yesterday. The Republicans are becoming the party of people you would not invite into your home.
October 11, 2008 6:20 PM | Reply | Permalink
O how the worm doth turn! Pretty soon it's going to be way fashionable to be liberal - again.
Hahahahahahahaha!!!!!!!!!!!!
{{{{{{{HappyFeet}}}}}}}
October 11, 2008 6:24 PM | Reply | Permalink
When you start seeing Obama signs lined up on lawns of 7 figure homes, 4 or more in a row down the block, you gotta figure liberal is back!
October 11, 2008 6:34 PM | Reply | Permalink
Just wanted to share that it was my honor and privilege to cast my ballot today for Obama/Biden. In California you can vote by mail as a "permanent absentee" voter.
Tomorrow I get my training for Protect the Vote. I'm heading to Reno in the event issues arise during early voting on the 29th and 30th.
Yeah, we can!
October 11, 2008 6:30 PM | Reply | Permalink
Woo Hoo!
Well I found out today that I'm going to have to vote absentee so I'm going next Monday to see if I can do it via fax - I'm borrowing a friend's fax.
I cannot trust the Taos P.O. to get my ballot to me. I really can't.
October 11, 2008 6:34 PM | Reply | Permalink
Here you go Tena,
I got sick of all his BS, so I decided to give him a good dose of his own crap pills.
http://tpmcafe.talkingpointsmemo.com/talk/2008/10/annals-of-the-whining-yellow-w.php
October 11, 2008 8:09 PM | Reply | Permalink
left you a comment.
:)
October 11, 2008 8:16 PM | Reply | Permalink
In Defense Of "The Hive"
All hands on deck. Click it up.
Annals Of The Yellow WASP Loser.
http://tpmcafe.talkingpointsmemo.com/talk/2008/10/annals-of-the-whining-yellow-w.php
October 11, 2008 8:25 PM | Reply | Permalink
Thanks for sharing! I can't believe I didn't share the same great news: I voted today!!! Woo Hoo.
It felt good. I took a picture of the ballot.
I'll be at my Mom and Dad's in Virginia helping to get out the vote on Election Day.
October 11, 2008 9:28 PM | Reply | Permalink
McCan't control his supporters.
McCan't control his running mate.
McCan't control his bladder.
Palin leads the nation's nuts!
She's opened Palindora's Box
http://thetruthburns.wordpress.com/2008/10/11/we%e2%80%99ve-gone-from-silly-season-to-hate-week-what%e2%80%99s-next-kristallnacht/
October 11, 2008 8:14 PM | Reply | Permalink
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3zgI0hyQN-w
Sarah got booed at the hockey game
October 11, 2008 8:17 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yeah, that's classic.
Here's a longer version of that. They had to turn up the music in the arena to drown out the booing. :)
October 11, 2008 8:33 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'm watching the Minnesota Senate debate on CSPAN, and I'm not sure Franken is doing so hot right now...
October 11, 2008 8:23 PM | Reply | Permalink
Palin Booed by Flyers Fans!
Just started watching a hockey game on TiVo: NY Rangers at Philadelphia Flyers, their season opener.
The ceremonial dropping of the first puck was given to Miss Half-Baked Alaska. The excuse was that she's the country's most famous Hockey Mom.
Never mind that Flyers owner Ed Snyder is a big Republican douchebag. (Well, I know him to be a douchebag of a hockey owner, and he's apparently a big Republican.)
The Philadelphia crowd booed her as off!
October 11, 2008 8:26 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'm getting tried of seeing her drag those kids around as stage props.
October 11, 2008 8:30 PM | Reply | Permalink
You and me both!
I'm sick of it - she always has at least one of those girls standing there and it's like they're both shields and walking accessories, except for Trig, who doesn't walk but gets lugged around like a handbag.
It's outrageous. Why aren't they in school?
October 11, 2008 8:38 PM | Reply | Permalink
I agree it's ridiculous that she uses her kids as props wherever she goes - especially her post-debate photo-op flooding the stage.
While the kids should be kept in the background, I'm not totally against the idea of having them on-the-trail with their mother, assuming they are being tutored to keep up with their studies, because truth be told the experience they're getting now (especially the older ones) is a once-in-a-lifetime education that few kids their age will ever experience.
Also with Alaska so far away, Palin would never be able to be with her kids, while Obama can duck into Chicago when he's campaigning in Ohio, Michigan, Indiana, and even Pennsylvania - Palin would waste too much travel time heading out of her way to Alaska to see her family.
Of course Obama is acting like he's going to win with his kids, and trying to keep their lives as normal as possible, whereas Palin seems to want her kids to experience everything almost as if she knows this will be a fleeting moment.
October 11, 2008 9:29 PM | Reply | Permalink
You know, I was thinking the same thing. Why is she always dragging her kids to every event? Yes, we know you're a mother--next?
And to take children to a Philly sports event of *any* type? ((Ducks rain of hot pennies))
OK, I kid! :
Unstable, unstable and completely not courageous.
October 11, 2008 9:09 PM | Reply | Permalink
More Boos than cheers for The Barbiecuda, when she came on the ice for the Flyers Hockey game in Philadelphia.
http://thinkprogress.org/
October 11, 2008 8:37 PM | Reply | Permalink
My link has a video clip of her coming on the ice. The audio is not very good, but you she sure got almost no cheers.
http://thinkprogress.org/
October 11, 2008 8:41 PM | Reply | Permalink
That's pretty funny, eh? It would be worth the price of admission for a chance to boo her! After her bus tour of West Virginia (West Virginia!) maybe she'll have to tour some hockey towns. It's not a good for McCain-Palin if they don't have the hockey vote or West Virginia nailed down with three weeks to go.
October 11, 2008 8:37 PM | Reply | Permalink
Its actually not a bus tour of west virginia. Her plane lands their but the bus tour will be in Ohio.
October 12, 2008 9:07 AM | Reply | Permalink
Tena -
I've been watching the Mexican hurricane track, you're about to get some serious rain there.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/EP15/refresh/EP1508W+gif/083241W_sm.gif
The last one here at Lubbock on Sept. 11 I got 8.5 inches in 24 hrs. Norbert looks like it will be tracking across much of New Mexico.
October 11, 2008 8:54 PM | Reply | Permalink
We've been having rain this afternoon and evening.
October 11, 2008 9:33 PM | Reply | Permalink
The boos so unnerved The Hockey Mom that she dropped little Trig, and tried to breast feed the puck.
October 11, 2008 8:55 PM | Reply | Permalink
"PHILADELPHIA (AP) — To a mixture of boos and cheers, Republican vice-presidential candidate Sarah Palin dropped the ceremonial first puck at the Philadelphia Flyers' home opener against the New York Rangers.
The Alaska governor heard a few boos when she walked onto the ice Saturday night. But that soon turned to polite applause as she walked out to center ice with Mike Richards of the Flyers and Scott Gomez — from Alaska — of the Rangers.
Palin waved to the crowd and smiled as she dropped the puck to applause and cheers."
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g7TgDanmWkg
Silly AP and their bias reporting.
October 11, 2008 9:06 PM | Reply | Permalink
John Lewis totally shit all over John McCain and will single handedly control the news cycle until the next debate.
October 11, 2008 9:06 PM | Reply | Permalink
Not only does McCain get it. There is proof. And Obama was nowhere to be found. No surprise.
http://img262.imageshack.us/my.php?image=letter050506ceg0.jpg
October 12, 2008 1:02 AM | Reply | Permalink
I think he does.
http://obama.senate.gov/press/070322-obama_urges_ber/
October 12, 2008 9:02 AM | Reply | Permalink
http://talkingpointsmemo.com/archives/223715.php
McCain is bad down ticket, and Obama is becoming a strong down ticket force.
A lot of people saw thing as a likely thing back in the first quarter of the year. Then HRC fought to the death, which didn't do the party any favors. The McCain Camp was able to roll days of the clock with nonsense, including a nonsensical VP choice.
It's a tragic sign of how base our electorate has become that we needed the "luck" of the economy collapsing in the worst fashion in 80 years to snap the swing voters out of their stupor. :/
John
October 12, 2008 1:24 AM | Reply | Permalink