TPM Track Composite: Obama Ahead By Nearly Eight Points
Here's our daily composite of the five major national tracking polls. With two days of post-debate data within these three-day trackers, Barack Obama is ahead by nearly eight points. His support is holding about where it was before the debate, while John McCain's may be declining even further:
• Gallup: Obama 51%, McCain 41%, with a ±2% margin of error, compared to a 52%-41% lead yesterday.
• Rasmussen: Obama 50%, McCain 45%, with a ±2% margin of error, unchanged from yesterday.
• Hotline/Diageo: Obama 48%, McCain 41%, with a ±3.3% margin of error, compared to a 47%-41% Obama lead yesterday.
• Research 2000: Obama 52%, McCain 40%, with a ±3% margin of error, Compared to a 51%-41% Obama lead yesterday.
• Zogby: Obama 48%, McCain 43%, with a ±2.9% margin of error, compared to a 48%-44% Obama lead yesterday.
Adding these polls together and weighting them by the square roots of their sample sizes, Obama is ahead 50.0%-42.2%, a nearly eight-point lead, compared to a 49.9%-42.6% Obama lead yesterday. In the data collected before the debate, the score was Obama 49.7%, McCain 43.2%.
Wow, these Ayers attacks are really taking a toll on Obama. Clearly they're working. Americans need to hear more./ Republican stupidity
http://pufferfish.typepad.com/
October 10, 2008 1:11 PM | Reply | Permalink
THIS IS EXCELLENT NEWS!! FOR MCCAIN!!!
October 10, 2008 1:13 PM | Reply | Permalink
The calm in the storm is our dear idiotic.
October 10, 2008 1:37 PM | Reply | Permalink
Hey! What about for Hillary?
October 10, 2008 1:45 PM | Reply | Permalink
Keep up with the Ayers attack McCain, you reprehensible smear peddling bastard - your rhetoric my inspire cross burnings and mid-rally circle jerks to Mein Kampf, but you will get your diaper-wearing ass handed to you on Nov 4th because of it motherfucker. Oh Cindy, that "Chill" you felt up your spine, its called "withdrawal" baby.
October 10, 2008 1:18 PM | Reply | Permalink
ouch
October 10, 2008 1:22 PM | Reply | Permalink
With you -- except for the age-ist diaper snark. His behavior and politics are the point, not the fact that he is very old and almost certianly incontinent.
October 10, 2008 1:23 PM | Reply | Permalink
I hear you, but they have called Obama a terrorist, terrorist sympathizer, claimed that he wished harm upon our troops, accused him of committing treason... Ageist rhetoric isn't the classiest, but at least it's not the type of discourse that leads to endangering a presidential candidate's life.
October 10, 2008 1:31 PM | Reply | Permalink
Touche'
October 10, 2008 1:34 PM | Reply | Permalink
Which candidate behaves like a terrorist? Hmmmm... Looks like mcShame, who has wrapped himself in inflamatory rhetoric and unless stopped will proceed to take his party with him - due to his inability to concede defeat in any graceful way.
October 10, 2008 1:39 PM | Reply | Permalink
I asked this during the primary, and I will ask again: why are we giving any credence to Zogby? Is that our ground wire?
October 10, 2008 1:24 PM | Reply | Permalink
Do we have any poli-sci profs on here already working on their spring semester class "How NOT to Save Your Failing Campaign"?
Short of withdrawing now, is there anything McCain could be doing to tarnish his campaign and image more?
October 10, 2008 1:28 PM | Reply | Permalink
This is the master's thesis that writes itself.
October 10, 2008 1:30 PM | Reply | Permalink
Well I hope the stupid fascists finally realize sooner rather than later that they are hopelessly outnumbered in this country and they are invited to crawl back under their rocks and stay there!
October 10, 2008 1:28 PM | Reply | Permalink
I wish I could be more optimistic about the part about crawling under a rock.
October 10, 2008 1:38 PM | Reply | Permalink
Not gonna happen...If y'all survived 525-18 in 84 we can survive whatever happens this time...
October 10, 2008 2:05 PM | Reply | Permalink
Oh, I don't want the Republicans to go away. It's the seething, wheezing underbelly of humanity we've heard from lately that bothers me.
October 10, 2008 2:08 PM | Reply | Permalink
For those who are "scared" or are thinking of buying a gun because of the thuggishness of the McCain/Palin mob, please grow a pair and realize:
THEY ARE THE ONES WHO ARE SCARED!
Scared of losing.
They were promised a permanent Republican majority. But they saw their president fall to the depths of unpopularity. They are seeing their candidate struggling to find some way to beat this upstart. They react with misplaced anger (guided by the ones they should be angry at).
Quit your crying. Stand up, fight for a landslide.
October 10, 2008 1:30 PM | Reply | Permalink
Amen.
October 10, 2008 1:39 PM | Reply | Permalink
^C^V Second!
October 10, 2008 1:43 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'm with you on the idea that they're losing and are scared. I'm with you on fighting for a landslide. I'm a phone bank cyborg warrior with a telephone built into my skull and call lists downloaded onto my internal hard drive.
It's the after-the-election part that scares me, frankly. And I don't believe that "growing a pair" and having a security backup plan, so to speak, are mutually exclusive. My strategy is to do both.
October 10, 2008 1:43 PM | Reply | Permalink
co-sign.
Sorry if I've whined. The economic news unhinged me as much as anything.
I remember 2002 and 2003, when I was very outnumbered in Dallas by nutjobs and chased down the street and yelled at for my stickers, followed into restaurants and yelled at for my stickers - I was chased for blocks by a guy on a bicycle until he could catch me at a light and yell at me for my stickers (it was always guys - no offense, guys.) I lived.
Two years later those same assholes were rolling their windows to give me a thumb's up and say: Hey I agree with your stickers!
October 10, 2008 1:43 PM | Reply | Permalink
Right on, Guano!
October 10, 2008 1:46 PM | Reply | Permalink
Since Ayers didn't work, they're going to go to ACORN and try that one. HA
Although I'm a bit concerned since we didn't see any effects of "celebrity" until 2 weeks later.
But another week down. 25 days to go
3 weeks till vicotry!
October 10, 2008 1:32 PM | Reply | Permalink
Ayers, ACORN... Whatever. It's all the same. It's called the Kitchen Sink.
October 10, 2008 1:36 PM | Reply | Permalink
No. It's called the kitchen. We're way past just the sink at this point.
October 10, 2008 1:45 PM | Reply | Permalink
God yes - it's the refrigerator, the dishwasher, the microwave, the cabinets, the oven...
October 10, 2008 1:48 PM | Reply | Permalink
It's not just the kitchen. It's all one of McCain's houses. For him, there's no problem at throwing it, because he has several more as backup.
October 10, 2008 1:50 PM | Reply | Permalink
All I can think of is the scarecrow in the Wizard of Oz taunting the tree to get apples. It's certainly a fitting analog.
October 10, 2008 2:25 PM | Reply | Permalink
"Damn you, cloud!"
October 10, 2008 5:03 PM | Reply | Permalink
I sure wish they'd do the dishes. It's starting to stink to high heaven.
October 10, 2008 2:21 PM | Reply | Permalink
Is it just me, or does it seem if they bring up ACORN, it:
1) Opens a can of worms to voter disenfranchisement and all the mailers McCain's campaign has sent out.
2) Grease the rails for a reason other than a failed campaign. If they lose, it's not McCain's fault, it's that rascally ACORN and the voter fraud!
3) Expose more of the fact that they refuse to face the facts. If the campaign starts going after ACORN, it's like a sports team getting all up in arms over the refs or cheap shots from the other team, and not playing the game. It shows their focus.
Does it seem like that to anyone else or did I fall off my rocker?
October 10, 2008 1:41 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yes and this will ensure high voter turnout on our side.
October 10, 2008 1:46 PM | Reply | Permalink
Good points. Thanks. Lowers my pucker meter a tad.
October 10, 2008 1:58 PM | Reply | Permalink
If they continue their campaign of xenophobia, fear and hatred, I'll assume the numbers on the McCain side are purely composed of bigots, racists, and bingo players from a hospice in FL.
In other words, the question boils down not to how many support McCain but how many bigots, racists and FL hospice bingo players are their in this country.
October 10, 2008 1:34 PM | Reply | Permalink
That sound you hear is the feet of millions of independent voters who, appalled at McCain's tactics and, are now running away from him as fast as they can.
October 10, 2008 1:39 PM | Reply | Permalink
Whoa, this is the first time he's hit 50% with the TPM composite right?
Too bad the right wing-nut bloggers are in denial--they think this kitchen sink strategy is working. No, seriously.
October 10, 2008 1:42 PM | Reply | Permalink
I've noticed that also teemunney, if you watch Pat Buchanan and that Basset Hound faced sister of his - they act as if this line of attack is a winning strategy when there isn't a shred of evidence backing them up. Amazing.
October 10, 2008 1:45 PM | Reply | Permalink
Here's some poll porn from the Hotline/Diageo poll:
Emphasis mine.
October 10, 2008 1:48 PM | Reply | Permalink
O my gosh that is just beautiful!
October 10, 2008 1:49 PM | Reply | Permalink
Obama nosed over 50% for a couple of days after the VP debate.
October 10, 2008 1:50 PM | Reply | Permalink
Correct. Obama's "TPM Composite" was over 50% several days ago, but dropped a little below when the Zogby tracking poll was added. The trend has remained steadily upward on the other polls, and has now regained the 50% mark even with Zogby.
For a real morale boost, check the numbers on intrade.com
...McWormtongue will be CRUSHED!
October 10, 2008 2:38 PM | Reply | Permalink
In re "morale boost:"
Nine or ten days ago I started tracking the FiveThirtyEight.com numbers for the various swing states, together with how many electoral votes Obama gets if he wins each of them.
Decided to convert my spreadsheet into a reasonably pretty Web page that illustrates just how well things are going for the good guys.
So if you like 538's approach to prediction, and you love poll porn, check out
http://kimmccall.org/538/
If there are some features you think would make it even better, I'm at kim (at) kimmccall (dot) org.
October 10, 2008 3:27 PM | Reply | Permalink
This news article from yesterday reports on a Strategic Vision poll that has Obama up by 14 points in PA
http://www.citizensvoice.com/articles/2008/10/09/news/doc48ee3943a5436906503493.txt
October 10, 2008 4:50 PM | Reply | Permalink
have they no direction? This from Rick Davis:
"There’s very little a candidate for president can say and very little the president can say about what’s happening in the stock markets except hope that they correct themselves," Davis said, adding that McCain's mortgage plan could be an "elixir" for the financial crisis.
"I can’t imagine a situation where on a daily basis the campaign would put out a statement about what the market was doing," he said. "It doesn’t meant that we don’t care and aren’t trying to do something about it."
October 10, 2008 1:48 PM | Reply | Permalink
And the rest of it "it’s just I’m not exactly sure what you’d say everyday"
Wonder if reporters will get an e-mail from the Obama campaign that says "Top McCain advisor doesn't know what to say about the economy, proving once again how out of touch the McCain campaign actually is".
October 10, 2008 2:01 PM | Reply | Permalink
yeah, it's gaining traction now. What a stupid comment
October 10, 2008 2:04 PM | Reply | Permalink
He should at least pretend to read Paul Krugman. Isn't that what they do "pretend to read", as in pretending to read The Economist.
October 10, 2008 2:29 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'm loving these poll numbers, and McCain/Palin's Nuremberg Reprise bemuses me more than anything else.
But I'll tell you guys what brings out my inner concern-troll: This damned ACORN story. Not that I actually believe there is anything truthful about the way it's being portrayed. It just makes me anxious that it's a story at all.
Where these goddamned people in 2004, when OH got punk'd?
October 10, 2008 1:48 PM | Reply | Permalink
Cheering on Ken Blackwell (just like they were cheering on Katherine Harris four years before that).
October 10, 2008 1:51 PM | Reply | Permalink
Bothers my inner concern troll, too. The whole linking of Obama with "voter fraud" is problematic.
But the Dow is tanking today, and there is time to debunk that.
October 10, 2008 1:53 PM | Reply | Permalink
I don't know what this new ACORN thing is, but I can tell you this much, Skymodem: the Republicans in Dallas Co. Texas have been after ACORN for years - ever since ACORN stood up and started being a power in Dallas Co. politics.
It's been low-level war ever since and I do not trust the Republicans on this issue one damn bit.
I know first hand the kind of voter suppression and fraud the Republicans have been practicing in minority neighborhoods in Dallas Co. My Whole Life.
October 10, 2008 1:54 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yeah, Tena, I knew the ACORN folks have been in their sights for years, and that isn't what bothers me. What bothers me is how CNN especially, but MSNBC too, has been giving air time to this bullshit story.
Why is this GOP talking point getting traction today? Did I miss something?
Is irony fucking dead or something? Why isn't the MSM curious about the GOP's attack of non-partisan voter registration groups like this one? Why isn't it a story that the GOP sees low turnout as a factor that would go in their favor?
October 10, 2008 2:04 PM | Reply | Permalink
I dunno, but I'm honestly not worried about it.
What haven't they thrown? Whatever that is, it's next -
October 10, 2008 2:18 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'm not concerned. At least where I am (Missouri) Obama is now massively outspending McCain on ads. You see 4 Obama ads then a stupid McCain ad attacking him. The news is almost entirely focused on the financial crisis.
People know McCain is losing to Obama and attacking him out of desperation. I have a feeling ACORN will just be seen as the "attack du jour".
It might have mattered if McCain hadn't spent so much time and effort attacking Obama throughout this election.
I really think he has just exhausted his attack credibility.
October 10, 2008 2:00 PM | Reply | Permalink
Thanks, I appreciate your comment. Yeah, I have to agree with you that there is a "boy who cried wolf" quality to McCain's campaign tactics at this point. It's a reassuring thought. I hope it's correct.
October 10, 2008 2:08 PM | Reply | Permalink
The ACORN story is not just an excuse for the McCain camp to avoid the economy (along with Ayers and the other crap), but show the GOP hatred for the way the Dems are beating Reps in voter registrations and the fact than they're not able to challenge them in the way they want it (even if they're still trying). All they have left to discredit the immense effort to allow many people who didn't have the opportunity to express their opinion, because if there's something that conservatives don't like is that the citizens decide for themselves.
October 10, 2008 2:20 PM | Reply | Permalink
GOBAMA,,,,,,,,,,,, Now if those numbers stay in the 10 to 12 point comfort zone between now and 11/4 our collective blood pressure can stabalize and we can work even harder for the LANDSLIDE, up ticket and down ticket.
October 10, 2008 1:53 PM | Reply | Permalink
For the first time in this entire election cycle, I'm now feeling some confidence that Obama will win this thing; these poll numbers are sigh-of-relief inducing.
Time, perhaps, to start thinking m