TPM Track Composite: McCain Picks Up Undecideds, But Obama Still Way Ahead
Here's our daily composite of the six major national tracking polls. John McCain has picked up some of the undecided vote, but Barack Obama's support is steady and he remains well ahead nationally:
• Gallup: Obama 53%, McCain 43%, with a ±2% margin of error, compared to a 52%-43% Obama lead from yesterday.
• Rasmussen: Obama 51%, McCain 46%, with a ±2% margin of error, compared to a 52%-44% Obama lead from yesterday.
• ABC/Washington Post: Obama 52%, McCain 45%, with a ±2.5% margin of error, unchanged from yesterday.
• Hotline/Diageo: Obama 50%, McCain 42%, with a ±3.6% margin of error, unchanged from yesterday.
• Research 2000: Obama 50%, McCain 42%, with a ±3% margin of error, compared to a 51%-40% Obama lead yesterday.
• Zogby: Obama 50%, McCain 45%, with a ±2.9% margin of error, compared to a 49%-44% Obama lead from yesterday.
Adding these polls together and weighting them by the square roots of their sample sizes, Obama is ahead 51.2%-44.0%, a lead of 7.2 points, compared to the 51.2%-43.1% Obama lead from yesterday.
GO BAMA! GO BAMA!
October 27, 2008 5:19 PM | Reply | Permalink
if mccain is picking up undecideds then this election is over. theres are 6% undecideds in Ohio and if they are going for McCain then he wins.
When Morons Become Reporters: Biden v. Barbara West
October 27, 2008 6:25 PM | Reply | Permalink
BTW, is it just me or did the whole Ashley Todd story literally die over the weekend? There is NOTHING on it today at all online!
I was hoping that would have had at least a week's worth of life to it.
October 27, 2008 5:20 PM | Reply | Permalink
Ashley who? Todd did what?
October 27, 2008 5:29 PM | Reply | Permalink
Well it would have been persistent if she were an Obama volunteer; Repubs would have jumped on it and had field days.
The Obama camp didn't push it, and I personally think it was a wise call.
October 27, 2008 6:12 PM | Reply | Permalink
It is easy for the right wing nuts because FoxNews and their affiliates & Politico just pick up Drudge's home page stories without doing any research. That's why non-Drudge & non-Fox News stories just die.
October 27, 2008 6:22 PM | Reply | Permalink
There should be some drift back in the direction of parity in the closing days. But it'll be interesting to see whether the Stevens story blunts that a little.
Maybe McCain will respond to the Stevens story by talking more about the dangers of one-party government -- aka the risk of participating in a "dangerous threesome."
Sounds fun to me!
October 27, 2008 5:22 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yes, I'm spamming this.
Woman shouts "he's a ni**er" at Palin rally. Palin stumbles and ignores it.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G9T0FI2axbU
October 27, 2008 5:22 PM | Reply | Permalink
According to Sarah Palin, the race is tightening considerably.
But then, according to Sarah Palin, dinosaurs and humans walked the earth at the same time.
Let's see. Tonight, the news will be Stevens, Obama and McCain.
Tomorrow, who knows?
Wednesday: Obama's infomercial.
Thursday: Obama's infomercial, and Barack and Bill, together at last, unless McCain or world events somehow manage to unhinge the narrative.
And isn't Thursday the magic day when the bin Laden video surfaced four years ago, that supposedly was the election game changer, even though none of the polls from four years suggest there was that much of an effect?????
October 27, 2008 5:23 PM | Reply | Permalink
Palin is absolutely correct! The race is tightening! Obama is getting closer and closer to both a landslide and a mandate!
October 27, 2008 5:31 PM | Reply | Permalink
Shorter Eric:
+09 => +10 Gallup
+08 => +05 Rasmussen
+07 => +07 ABC-WaPo
+08 => +08 Hot-Dog
+11 => +08 R2k
+05 => +05 Zogby
October 27, 2008 5:24 PM | Reply | Permalink
Thank you.
I don't get why Eric gives us the composite spread for today but not for yesterday. Do the math for us!
October 27, 2008 5:27 PM | Reply | Permalink
Seriously.
I've been whining about that for weeks, to no avail. Why does Eric hate cats?
October 27, 2008 5:29 PM | Reply | Permalink
Their reputation for being finicky, ie flip floppers? Just kidding. I love cats. :)
October 27, 2008 6:24 PM | Reply | Permalink
it's their propensity to request to be pet only to turn on you when you aren't lookin.....ouch!
October 27, 2008 6:27 PM | Reply | Permalink
Hot-Dog. Perfect.
October 27, 2008 5:28 PM | Reply | Permalink
See how it trended up and down within a 10 day span, that is what I like to call, static.
October 27, 2008 7:39 PM | Reply | Permalink
Eric,
Did you see these numbers on frickin' ARIZONA??? Razor close!!!
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/10/27/14221/410/20/643743
October 27, 2008 5:27 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'm guessing a lot of the undecideds are McCain at this point - just to embarassed to admit it.
October 27, 2008 5:30 PM | Reply | Permalink
I seriously do not understand how anyone can be undecided at this point, or after all that has happened decide to vote for McCain.
October 27, 2008 5:40 PM | Reply | Permalink
In many critical states Barr and Nadar will siphon off votes; Obama stays above 50% game over. In other states Barr and Nadar will likely be more destructive to McCain. The point being that it is near impossible to close this gap; McCain will have a near impossible task of getting past 45% if this trend holds. Too few undecided voters to matter and per earlier poll data most folks, about 95%, who have made a decision plan no changes.
October 27, 2008 5:48 PM | Reply | Permalink
The only thing that has gone up in McCain's number, Obama's is unchanged. That's good news for us.
October 27, 2008 5:41 PM | Reply | Permalink
Every day you give the total for the current day (7.2 points difference) etc., but you don't give the total for the prior day as comparison. Of course I can do the math in my head, but if you are making a comparison between today and yesterday's totals, then you should include the margin of difference for both, not just today.
Thanks.
October 27, 2008 5:44 PM | Reply | Permalink
Here's the past 10 days. Obama's lead has norrowed in the past two days, but perhaps more important, he is above 51% for the sixth consecutive day.
October 27, 2008 5:55 PM | Reply | Permalink
"Norrowed". You coined the term.
October 27, 2008 5:59 PM | Reply | Permalink
Ack! And that was with preview. I need more sleep.
October 27, 2008 6:07 PM | Reply | Permalink
After Obama's speech on Wednesday and after the Ted Stevens story dominates the news cycles for the next two days, Obama's poll numbers will jump back up.
I'm predicting by next Tuesday, Obama's nationally lead will be between 8 and 9 points.
October 27, 2008 5:59 PM | Reply | Permalink
Wonder what specualtion about Palin appointing herself to Steven's Senate seat in the event he wins it will do to the polls.
October 27, 2008 6:17 PM | Reply | Permalink
Wonder what specualtion about Palin appointing herself to Steven's Senate seat in the event he wins it will do to the polls.
October 27, 2008 6:20 PM | Reply | Permalink
Eric, you call these the "six major national tracking polls," and include Daily Kos/Research 2000 which has no historical tarck record, and Zogby which was the most inaccurate pollster in 2004.
Yet you omit the most accurate pollster in 2004 -- IBD/TIPP (which got Dumbya's margin within .4%) and Battleground which has a track record of medium accuaracy. The TIPP and Battleground trackers are included on RCP, pollster.com, and fivethirtyeight.com -- so why aren't they in your polling average?
October 27, 2008 8:55 PM | Reply | Permalink
IBD sucks total ass considering they use the demo's as 2004. Like times don't change.
October 28, 2008 12:04 AM | Reply | Permalink