On Private Calls, Top Obama Advisers Expressing Real Worry That Complacency Will Damage Fundraising, Turnout
In two private conference calls this week with leading fundraisers, surrogates, and prominent supporters, senior Obama advisers expressed genuine worry that his lead in the polls is creating a complacency among supporters that the advisers are afraid will create a serious drag on fundraising and turnout, a person who was on both calls says.
Obama and his aides have publicly warned against complacency, but in general terms, and such gestures have been widely viewed as pep-talks. These private discussions, though, suggest that the worry is genuine, and that it has taken the specific form of worry about money and get-out-the-vote efforts.
"The calls each had the same theme, which struck me," the person who was on both calls says. "They were worried about Democrats being so confident of victory -- it's a recurring theme." The Obama campaign declined to comment on the calls.
On one of the calls, a key focus was money. "The big fear was that people will start thinking their donations don't count," the person who was on the calls says. Speaking of Obama's advisers, he continued: "They were really concerned that in the final stretch people will feel their $50 or $100 don't matter."
It's hard to imagine that this could become a major factor, given Obama's huge financial advantage, but it's probably good news for Obama supporters that his advisers are sweating every possibility.
On the second call, the person says, a key topic for senior Obama advisers was turnout -- specifically among young people, who may not have learned yet from bitter experience just now dramatically presidential campaigns can tighten up or shift in the home stretch.
"They're increasingly concerned about their supporters taking this victory for granted, particularly among people who are going through this for the first time," the person says. "The words they used were, `too confident of victory," and they worry that this will result in a slacking off in turnout."
Separately, Ben Smith reports that Obama himself got on a call with staff to tell them not to "get cocky."
Ok, Obama - calm your own ass down - everyone is fired up. I just sent you another one-fiddy last night that was matched by 6 brand new donors.
October 17, 2008 4:18 PM | Reply | Permalink
I just sent another $50 in response to Joe's "Reality Check" email last night. Although we are in a great position now in those polls, the real poll is not over yet. I'll keep cashing in as much as I can afford.
October 17, 2008 4:19 PM | Reply | Permalink
You know what will ensure no one gets complacent?
Good stuff like is happening right now from Obama's team in pushing back at the Repubs (and US DOJ) on the ACORN bullshit voter fraud meme that Fox/McCain/Drudge has been pushing. That particular framing has had a chance to get dangerous. Pushing back aggressively will signal to everyone as clear as possible that Obama and his team are actively fighting, and will model the effort required to finish this thing off.
October 17, 2008 4:20 PM | Reply | Permalink
Doesn't that rock? Is this not excellent proof that Obama is not Kerry and this ain't 2004?
I love it - he does fight - hard.
October 17, 2008 4:25 PM | Reply | Permalink
Ya hear that, ya young whipper-snappers!?!?! Get out there and vote, otherwise you get Grandpa Coo Coo Bananas McSame!
No sitting this one out, nobody, no excuses.
(Of course I'm preaching to the choir here).
October 17, 2008 4:20 PM | Reply | Permalink
Don't worry. Obama has done his part. Now we're going to do ours.
October 17, 2008 4:21 PM | Reply | Permalink
One good thing about having offspring, eventually they are old enough to vote (after 18 years of parental brainwashing). My wife got her US citizenship too . . . so one vote becomes four!
(wait a minute, the same is true for Republican families . . . )
October 17, 2008 4:23 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yeah, except right now Republican family kids are in the tank for Obama (citing my own family here--thank God for nieces and nephews!).
October 17, 2008 4:42 PM | Reply | Permalink
You are right, I have a brother-in-law in the military (R-natcherly), and come to think of it, his daughters are definitely for Obama.
October 17, 2008 4:47 PM | Reply | Permalink
These so-called private calls are, of course, very effective in whipping up concern and enthusiasm. In Bristol, PA Wednesday night, well over 150 people crowded into the Boilermakers Hall to volunteer for GOTV efforts, this on the night of the last debate and the Phillies championship-clinching game. These people were fired up and ready to go.
On a side note, I saw a great t-shirt: Jesus was a community organizer, Pilate was a governor.
October 17, 2008 4:23 PM | Reply | Permalink
We did the same thing at Swarthmore College. Did you get nabbed for canvassing and phone shifts walking in and for an extra two or three during the meeting? I thought that was great, and smart.
Rep. Sestak came and gave a rally the troops speech. A good time was had by all.
October 17, 2008 5:10 PM | Reply | Permalink
I LOVE it! That's my philosophy no matter how good things may look: hope for the best but assume and prepare for the worst!
Keep 'em on their toes Obama, don't take ANYTHING for granted! We can count chickens once the eggs are hatched. Or to quote the Wolf in Pulp Fiction:
"Lets not start..." (you know the rest!)
October 17, 2008 4:24 PM | Reply | Permalink
I LOVE it! That's my philosophy no matter how good things may look: hope for the best but assume and prepare for the worst!
Keep 'em on their toes Obama, don't take ANYTHING for granted! We can count chickens once the eggs are hatched. Or to quote the Wolf in Pulp Fiction:
"Lets not start..." (you know the rest!)
October 17, 2008 4:24 PM | Reply | Permalink
Personally, my plan is to take off election day for a final GOTV effort. Also, calling all my friends to see how they are voting and to convince them to vote for Obama (there are a couple of fence-sitters) in the coming weeks. I'm also taking my friend who has never voted before to the polls. No excuses- I won't leave until she gets in my car to go. I know she won't put up too much fuss- she was horrified to learn about McCain's energy policy.
October 17, 2008 4:26 PM | Reply | Permalink
...and no, it wasn't the energy "policy", she's an animal lover and shivered at the thought of the effects of offshore drilling. You just never know....
Same day registration in MN.
October 17, 2008 4:31 PM | Reply | Permalink
They shouldn't worry. I'm one of the youth voters and unlike in 2004 where people weren't really attached to Kerry, my peers are.
We identify with Obama and are willing to crawl over glass to vote for him.
October 17, 2008 4:26 PM | Reply | Permalink
Thank you!!
October 17, 2008 4:45 PM | Reply | Permalink
Given the Repubs attempts to suppress the vote, you may just have to.
October 17, 2008 5:30 PM | Reply | Permalink
I have leaned all over my friend's daughter, who is 21 and still in college, to remember to vote and to get all her friends to vote and she said they are fired up and they are voting.
I think Obama inspires more enthusiasm than he realizes. I think people are going to stay fired up - right through the inauguration.
LOL!
See, you may be a little too awesome, Senator, just like you said.
October 17, 2008 4:27 PM | Reply | Permalink
"I think Obama inspires more enthusiasm than he realizes. I think people are going to stay fired up - right through the inauguration."
I agree, but I hope it lasts WAAAY past inauguration. We have a lot of problems to fix, and we will need immense energy to fix them.
As far as more than he realizes, my 14yo stepdaughter recently started complaining that she couldn't vote. 14! When I was 14 (Reagan Mondale) I didn't even know who was running. I wouldn't really classify her as "bookish," either.
Now, I know 14yo's don't make a difference. College kids do, though. I work near West Chester Univ., and there is Obama paraphernalia all over the place near campus. Same thing with the cars in the Penn State Delco campus' parking lots when I pick up my daughter.
The young people are excited. This isn't 1972. They KNOW they have to get out there.
Obama won't let them forget.
October 17, 2008 5:26 PM | Reply | Permalink
Tena, good on ya like they say in some Commonwealth countries, but please don't get complacent. Your young 21-year old and her friends *do* need to vote and it's not yet a celebration. I know that you know, just please follow through, with all respect.
October 17, 2008 5:29 PM | Reply | Permalink
I think it's less complacency on the part of voters, than perhaps a suspicion that money donated now won't be processed in time to be of use before November 4.
The concern may be, though, that Obama's folks are running low on funds and they suspect that JohnnyMac has pulled back in order to save money for a last minute ad blitz.
At any rate, I just gave some more.
October 17, 2008 4:27 PM | Reply | Permalink
I appreciate that you did, and I will, too. Together, we win!
October 17, 2008 5:32 PM | Reply | Permalink
Extra-special motivation: The bigger the victory, the less chance we'll see Palin anywhere besides Fox News ever again.
Plus of course the more political capital a President Obama would have to work with.
October 17, 2008 4:28 PM | Reply | Permalink
NOT cocky
Making calls via mybo..GREAT system BTW
It is SO easy to do. They've really improved the system over these many months And rewarding! I spoke with a guy in NV yesterday who was originally from downstate IL and no fan of Obama's...now truly undecided he says he'll probably go with the guy who isn't part of the problem....I checked CHange under most important issues..he'll get followup contact focusing on his concerns about bringing change to Washington. Outstanding..that Fired Me Up!
http://my.barackobama.com/modules/votercontact/login_signup.php
October 17, 2008 4:28 PM | Reply | Permalink
Good for you!! Now everybody else, eh? "Obama for America." Go to your site, NOW!
October 17, 2008 5:35 PM | Reply | Permalink
I understand the concern about complacency, but this year is just so different. First, supporters want to vote FOR Obama, not just against McCain; and second, let's face it....a vote for Obama is history in the making. I'm planning on taking my 6 year old to vote with me so that when she's older she can remember being a part of such an historic day. Polling leads aren't going to diminish those things....at least not for me.
October 17, 2008 4:30 PM | Reply | Permalink
Co-sign - totally. People want to vote for this man - I'm dying to. If my ballot doesn't get here I may jump in the gorge.
And yes part of that excitement is history.
I agree - it's a very different election. But I love it that our man doesn't just put it on cruise control - he is determined to insure success. That's a good thing -
October 17, 2008 4:36 PM | Reply | Permalink
If they don't use up all the money, they will send the remainder back to us, right?
:-P
October 17, 2008 4:35 PM | Reply | Permalink
Polls open for early voting Monday morning, and I will be there to vote for Barack Obama (and a whole slate of feisty Texas Democrats).
Sending more money too.
We need to play the last quarter as if we were down by six.
October 17, 2008 4:35 PM | Reply | Permalink
Damn I wish we had early voting.
October 17, 2008 5:30 PM | Reply | Permalink
Of all the things to worry about at the end of a campaign this is the best.
http://pufferfish.typepad.com/
October 17, 2008 4:36 PM | Reply | Permalink
I understand the campaign's concerns, but I really do think this year is going to be different from 2004.
The flip side of Obama's lead, of course, is that McCain's supporters could grow discouraged and not vote. "Why should I bother, my guy isn't going to win anyway..." Especially when so many rank-and-file Repubs are not enthused about McCain to begin with.
I'm stopping by my local Dem headquarters after work to see if they have any more Obama yard signs yet. They have been out for weeks. I consider that a good omen, as I live in a state that is usually red but considered swing this year.
October 17, 2008 4:38 PM | Reply | Permalink
Huh.
Well, not to go all meta, but that sure sounds like they must have hauled in a truckload of cash for September, doesn't it?
I'm going to donate more money anyway.
October 17, 2008 4:38 PM | Reply | Permalink
My wife recently talked to her sister who lives in a north suburb of Dallas. Sis said a neighbor of hers (big time evangelical) said that she can't vote for McCain because Palin is such a terrible mother. How about that!?!?!
October 17, 2008 4:38 PM | Reply | Permalink
Your sister's neighbor is smart for looking past the candy outer-layer and into the venomous center of Fraulein Palin....
October 17, 2008 4:41 PM | Reply | Permalink
That's why I had such faith in American women.
And why I kept insisting that her terrible parenting skills were most definitely relevant.
October 17, 2008 4:50 PM | Reply | Permalink
Well, it looks like you had a point!
October 17, 2008 5:46 PM | Reply | Permalink
Isn't this great? Reflects "a sense of urgency" people are feeling, I think.
http://www.editorandpublisher.com/eandp/news/article_display.jsp?vnu_content_id=1003875316
(Now if WSJ follows...)
October 17, 2008 4:41 PM | Reply | Permalink
E&P's quote of the LA Times endorsement of Obama is one of the best I've read. Thanks for the link. It totally sums up why everyone who cares about this country should vote for Obama.
October 17, 2008 5:28 PM | Reply | Permalink
I like that they're aware of the issue of complacency. Given the way this campaign has addressed everything, there's no doubt they'll tackle this. We'll probably see it in messaging - the stump speaches, the ads, and speakers for the campaign on the tube.
I *suspect* that one of the reasons this worry is popping up is that they may have had either a flat or down week of donations relative to the spike that was going on through September. They clearly are budgeting on either matching Sep in October, or topping it again. The campaign has a great finger on the pulse of donations, and probably are quicker in seeing it and reacting to it than most would be and tying it into complacency. So these rumbles we hear are just to get people refocused.
I agree with the comments above that they could do a good themed ad on the Republicans "not wanting you to vote" through Suppression and Complacency. "Every vote counts, both for me and for other Democrats on the ballot". He really could rally the troops strongly.
John
October 17, 2008 4:43 PM | Reply | Permalink
I hope they realize that a lot of us are concerned about the cash we have on hand, since some of us aren't sure but what that's all we got left! lol
October 17, 2008 4:57 PM | Reply | Permalink
I expect most of his 30 minute of prime time on Oct 29th will be geared towards getting out the vote.
October 17, 2008 4:45 PM | Reply | Permalink
Vote early, vote often! Hey that's how they did it in Daley's Chicago.
Everyone but the cat in my house already voted (Obama up 2-0 in WI)!
October 17, 2008 4:46 PM | Reply | Permalink
I think this is all part of their strategy. For months now, in the days and weeks leading up to the official monthly fundraising announcements, the Obama camp cried poor, said they were worried that they weren't going to hit their goals. They let this leak to the press. Then the totals come out and their better than expected. But that "worried" message they sent out probably resulted in increased fundraising.
Still, we can never get complacent. No resting until November 5. It's not likely but he can still lose this thing.
And here's a great way to get Obama supporters to open up their wallets....Send them this video:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gHrExRHZnm0
Pretty ugly stuff, huh?
October 17, 2008 4:47 PM | Reply | Permalink
There is a critical reason not to be complacent and it goes beyond the fear that Obama could actually lose -- it's that our greatest need this year is not just to win but to kick ass so the Obama can enact his agenda in Congress next year and so that the Repugnuts are stuck in the wilderness for the next decade. Obviously, I'd take a win by any margin, but we need to be trying to run up the score as much as possible.
October 17, 2008 4:48 PM | Reply | Permalink
Cosign. I'm taking the day off and putting my car to work as a polling place bus. I figure I can get a couple hundred people to the polls and back. Yeah, we gotta run up the score. Let's think in terms of 60-40 in the Senate and 250-185 in the House.
October 17, 2008 4:58 PM | Reply | Permalink
Totally agree it's not just about winning it's about crippling the GOP by winning HUGE! Let's give Obama a real mandate, more than the paltry 2.4% that gave Bush his supposed mandate in 2004.
Let's make it a blow-out!
October 17, 2008 5:04 PM | Reply | Permalink
I cosign that we easily could lose, and I cosign that everybody must do everything possible to win by as big a margin as we can! Sign up, if you can't give money, no worries, call some folks or visit your neighbors -- they'll tell you how and it's SO easy!
JUST DO IT!!! www.barackobama.com
October 17, 2008 5:51 PM | Reply | Permalink
I totally agree that a large margin of victory, with an unambiguous mandate, would be great. I believe, though, that there will be gains sufficient in house and senate races to enable viable governance...and having watched these unelected motherfucking republicans act as if they had a mandate when they didn't even have a legitimate claim to the presidency makes me think (although it's not optimal)...that once Obama's in they can go fuck themselves, regardless of the margin of victory, and we can begin operating the levers in a constructive direction. Let's start with war crimes.
October 19, 2008 8:44 AM | Reply | Permalink
C'mon. They say this every time and end up breaking another record. I'm not buying it. But I will dontate to it.
October 17, 2008 4:56 PM | Reply | Permalink
I really think this was directed not at the youth or any of us, but the talking heads. They are trying to get in front of the "measuring the drapes" talk. And if it helpfully reminds folks to donate and volunteer, it's a win-win. I hit him off for $150 earlier this week. I guess I can go to the kitty one more time today (btw, they are pushing for donations by Friday because they realize when they release their September totals people just might get complacent on the donation front--that's my guess).
October 17, 2008 4:57 PM | Reply | Permalink
Nice insight - you could be right.
And all of this points to the same thing - September must have been another record-breaking month. It was bound to be - it was Palin-ized.
October 17, 2008 4:59 PM | Reply | Permalink
Dude, where's your avatar?
October 17, 2008 5:04 PM | Reply | Permalink
And what's with the dainty default avatar now? Looks pretty durned effete to me . . .
October 17, 2008 5:09 PM | Reply | Permalink
For whatever reason I can't load it. And I have a good one too. Every time I try to attach the file it says I need to log in again. Any changes to my profile results in the same problem.
October 17, 2008 5:12 PM | Reply | Permalink
e-mail Lila.
Seriously. You need an avatar.
The one you have now by default just doesn't do you justice.
October 17, 2008 5:23 PM | Reply | Permalink
Oprah is throwing a fundraiser for him this month. $28,500 per plate. Obama has $77 mil in the bank and expects to raise another $100 mil by Nov 4th.
October 17, 2008 5:03 PM | Reply | Permalink
$2300/plate goes to Obama, the rest goes to the DNC per campaign finance rules.
October 17, 2008 5:06 PM | Reply | Permalink
linkees?
October 17, 2008 5:07 PM | Reply | Permalink
If anyone who was planning to vote Obama stays home on Election Day because "it's in the bag", they are complete morons.
I really believe that anyone who has made the decision to support Barack on Nov. 4th, especially in a close State, realizes the importance of showing up to vote.
Fundraising, maybe an issue, but TURNOUT?! Not an issue. It's good they are on top of this, though. That Barack actually said "snatching defeat from the jaws of victory" tells me he is no John Kerry. Don't get me wrong, I love John Kerry, but he laid down in the weeks running up to the election. Barack will not repeat that mistake.
October 17, 2008 5:10 PM | Reply | Permalink
And why does Punchy (my avatar) look like he just finished a 3-day bender? He's a mess.
October 17, 2008 5:13 PM | Reply | Permalink
Albert must have gone on the same binge.
October 17, 2008 5:37 PM | Reply | Permalink
Well, look how bad JC (my avatar) is looking after these few months of worry and stress!
October 17, 2008 6:05 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yes. There's always Florida. A law was enacted in late September that had been previously struck down. It has to do with voter registrations completely matching information in government databases. It disproportionately affects Hispanic and African American voters. At present about 4,000 voters have been affected, primarily in Miami/Dade.
The secretary of state says Florida will err on the side of the voter. I'll believe it when I see it.
So, complacency here is not an option. To win we have to turn out every voter. Period.
October 17, 2008 5:43 PM | Reply | Permalink
I think the Obama Camp knows that once they release their September numbers that their fundraising will dry up for the final two weeks.
I'm surprised the Obama Camp didn't have a "Last call for Donations" message yet (before the September numbers are released - deadline in Monday). They could push the idea that they need to budget for the final weeks of the election and thus it's important to donate now rather than waiting until a later date, basically that it's now or never.
October 17, 2008 5:11 PM | Reply | Permalink
I was actually on that conference call with Barack. It was pretty fucking amazing. =)
October 17, 2008 5:14 PM | Reply | Permalink
Wow, I'm actually jealous.
October 17, 2008 5:16 PM | Reply | Permalink
I am pea green with envy.
October 17, 2008 5:21 PM | Reply | Permalink
I was talking to the 21 year old teller at my People's Bank branch here yesterday. This is his first election - what a great first vote. He went to the Espanola rally and shook Obama's hand.
Once Obama's president - there goes any chance.
{{{sob}}}
October 17, 2008 5:41 PM | Reply | Permalink
You never know what kinda shit comes your way, though. I actually shook W's hand when he *was* President, and as you must kindly understand, I utterly despise what he has done to USA and I have been among his most impassioned critics from the start. Cannot abide him. But shook his hand!
October 17, 2008 5:56 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yeah, a friend of mine from college gave Obama a hug.
It was in the news and everything: http://www.kearneyhub.com/site/news.cfm?newsid=20100962&BRD=268&PAG=461&dept_id=577571&rfi=6
October 17, 2008 6:02 PM | Reply | Permalink
I shook Obama's hand three times so far. I have to travel around in New Hampshire from my cozy nest in Vermont, and then throw my body over the masses to do it. But it is my destiny.
October 17, 2008 6:21 PM | Reply | Permalink
Are you worried?
October 17, 2008 6:04 PM | Reply | Permalink
We need to be worried. The media is going to turn McCain into the "comeback kid", or at least try. We need to, as Barack said, work like we're 10 points behind. Every single day. We cannot afford to lose this. Our country can't. Obama won the Iowa caucus. Then a couple weeks later came the New Hampshire primary, and Obama lost even though he was up in the polls. We cannot get complacent. We cannot slack off. We have to fight to the very end. It's only 18 days. Obama's been doing it for 20 months. We can make it another two and a half weeks.
October 17, 2008 7:54 PM | Reply | Permalink
Biden on Palin's Pro-America comments:
"I, like your senators and governor have been all over this great land," Biden said. "Iโve never been to a state, Iโve never been to a state that hasnโt sent its sons and daughters to serve and die for this country."
"Folks, it doesnโt matter where you live, we all love this country and I hope it gets through. We all love this country," he also said.
http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2008/10/17/happening-now-biden-in-new-mexico/
October 17, 2008 5:18 PM | Reply | Permalink
O bless Joe Biden.
But how stupid is it that someone actually has to say that?
I'm so glad this ugly era is almost over. It can't end soon enough. I'm trying to keep from getting any madder at Repugs than I already am and it's really difficult. They broke the economy and lost me my retirement money, they are running the ugliest campaigns imaginable - outfront racist and fascist. I get this mental image all the time of being surrounded by imps from hell who are all just plaguing me - pulling my hair, picking my pocket, tripping me, breaking my shit - go back to hell, please!
October 17, 2008 5:25 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'm going to CO in two weeks and working in Fort Collins through election day. I'd be stealing money by trying to pretend I was able to do meaningful work on Nov. 3rd and 4th anyway. It will be a pleasure to do something in a state which will actually matter on election day, and be part of our effort to make history.
The Republicans must really be pissed that they're being outspent by Obama and the Democrats. Throughout my life they've always been able to use their financial advantage to drive home their deceptive messages of fear-mongering and hate. This year it's different, both because of our candidate and because so many people have gotten engaged and are doing what they can. It's wonderful to behold.
October 17, 2008 5:19 PM | Reply | Permalink
Outspent, Out-GOTVed, Outhussled, Outsmarted, Outfocused, Outfoxed (hah!), and Outted for being the fucks they truly are.
October 17, 2008 5:25 PM | Reply | Permalink
Look for a flood of stories on Keating, Liddy, Singlaub and Gambling in the coming weeks. The McPain campaign has laid down the gauntlet and I think the MSM will come out swinging next week!
October 17, 2008 5:25 PM | Reply | Permalink
Well since the Palin stormtroopers started kneecapping journalists, I would hope the motherfuckers would start fighting back!
October 17, 2008 5:28 PM | Reply | Permalink
god it's going to be fun to read about Rush Limburger Cheese swallowing his tounge on Nov. 5. Maybe he'll swallow his hole self and turn inside out!
October 17, 2008 5:29 PM | Reply | Permalink
I think I might sell my soul to see Rush Limbaugh explode on November 5.
October 17, 2008 5:36 PM | Reply | Permalink
There's no complacency in Minnesota. To Democrats and liberals and progressives elsewhere, Minnesota has two words for you: Paul Wellstone. If you don't remember that reference, it means everyone here learned the very hard way that the whole election can change in the brief time it takes a news broadcaster to say "We received reports that a plane carrying Sen. Paul Wellstone has crashed." At a fundraiser for a state legislative candidate last weekend, a bunch of Minnesota Democrats, mostly strangers to each other, were clustered together more scared than cocky, and talking about who still has their Wellstone lawn signs.
October 17, 2008 5:33 PM | Reply | Permalink
Paul might have ended up being a lifer, which is saying something because MN has only reelected 4 senators out of the last 15 races. Coleman must go. They are talking 80% voter turnout here (Sec. of State estimate). Complacency left town and ain't coming back.
October 17, 2008 5:39 PM | Reply | Permalink
Aw, there you had to go again bringing up Paul & Sheila. My vision always goes fuzzy when I'm reminded of 2002.
Norm is a vile corrupt sycophantic piece of shit and must go! I have a special drink set aside for the moment my neighbors in Minnesota toss him out on his sorry ass, and I will raise it high (with tears in my eyes) to Paul.
October 17, 2008 6:34 PM | Reply | Permalink
Go see Religulous. Saw it last night. Brillian movie. What a blast. The times they are a changin'.
October 17, 2008 5:34 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yeah they are, and this is just the beginning.
:)
October 17, 2008 5:38 PM | Reply | Permalink
W. is out today as well. I'm curious so I'm gonna check it out.
October 17, 2008 5:39 PM | Reply | Permalink
O I can't wait to hear what you think - the trailers look awesome to me - looks like Stone got it. But I'm not the world's biggest Stone fan - so I'll sure be curious to hear what you have to say.
October 17, 2008 5:44 PM | Reply | Permalink
Stone is a paranoid twit. Gov't killed JFK, RFK, MLK. They're everywhere, they're everywhere! Nixon wasn't such a bad guy, it's just that bad people in government and business got to him! Same as W, preyed upon by bad men.
Fuck Oliver Stone!
October 17, 2008 6:02 PM | Reply | Permalink
This story settles my nervous a little. I'd rather have them remain guarded and prevent this scenario rather than regret it has an after thought.
October 17, 2008 5:46 PM | Reply | Permalink
Its 2:45 and I've received 4 fundraising e-mail already today. I usually don't receive 4 campaign e-mail in a week, let along a day.
They certainly aren't taking their lead for granted.
October 17, 2008 5:50 PM | Reply | Permalink
So the 4th time was a charm. I gave, to further elevate the debate performance.
https://donate.barackobama.com/page/contribute/standardvidbottom?source=mainnav_bt_dn_c
Even if you don't care to donate, you can at least watch the video.
October 17, 2008 6:00 PM | Reply | Permalink
Frankly, it's getting a little obnoxious. I gave this morning (2nd time this month) and I still got more emails.
And now my phone rings constantly with DNC begging for more. It's almost as if someone has figured out that they found a soft mark and they will keep pounding on me to give more.
There's a middle ground here.
October 17, 2008 6:10 PM | Reply | Permalink
Poor, poor thing. The oppression must be awful for you. Democracy is such an annoyance. The gulag or the killing fields would be so much nicer.
October 17, 2008 7:17 PM | Reply | Permalink
Asking people for money is not "Democracy".
I hope you vote for Obama, but I sure as hell hope you don't represent him to others.
October 17, 2008 9:21 PM | Reply | Permalink
Obama needs to chill out! I'm still eager, energized and ready to vote. My friends, family and I were expressing our disappoints that in the my home state of New York, early voting is not an option. So, Barack, chill your a$$ out...lol
October 17, 2008 5:51 PM | Reply | Permalink
Don't fucking chill out, do contact www.barackobama.com, and do something.
You don't need to give money if you ain't got it even though they'll gladly take just fi'dollahs -- you could visit neighbors or make calls and it's extremely easy.
October 17, 2008 6:07 PM | Reply | Permalink
I am sending money religiously and phone banking every single day between now and the election until I lose my voice and am going to a battleground state election week-end (my first experience with this). If you are an attorney or know any attorneys who are Obama supporters and can volunteer to travel to a battleground state to work on voter protection issues on Election Day (Nov 4) they should check out this web site:
www.barackobama.com/counselforchange
They can also call the Obama Illinois HQ office and get the information from one of the staff at that office.
You DO NOT have to be licensed to practice law in that particular state and the campaign desperately needs more attorneys to travel.
We cannot get complacent - Look what happened in 2004 and 2000. TX is hopeless for us - so perhaps you could travel to NM or NV. California is very blue - but NV could use some more attorneys and is near-by. Illinois - you can go to WI, MO, IN or OH. And there's always that schlepp to FL to see your grandparents and work on voter protection.
There will be lots of new work for attorneys after the election - prosecuting repugs who tried to suppress voters rights. I don't care what SCOTUS ruled today - tomorrow repugs will have more dirty tricks.
October 17, 2008 5:54 PM | Reply | Permalink
Good news.
Cautious, careful Obama is right -- we need to be vigilant.
What's that saying? Eternal vigilance is the price of liberty?
October 17, 2008 5:57 PM | Reply | Permalink
You leave no stone unturned folks, we CANNOT get complacent, I think it would actually be better for us if those polls tightened, then we would have no choice but to get out and vote and work harder and harder to win.
October 17, 2008 6:02 PM | Reply | Permalink
I worked the Obama-Biden Tax Calculator. My message was that I "probably won't receive a tax cut under the Obama-Biden plan". I knew I wouldn't, but I wanted to test the accuracy.
At least my kids will get a break. That's all that really matters: young people who are able to accomplish things in their lives without having to sacrifice everything for a few.
October 17, 2008 6:05 PM | Reply | Permalink
Ok Obama, you twist my arm. I'll give you some more money...
October 17, 2008 6:07 PM | Reply | Permalink
I already voted. As soon as Barack emailed me that I could vote early in Vermont, I got over to the town hall and voted. Gave more money two days ago. And made my husband go out to make calls from the N.H. Headquarters. Seven repugs yelled at him today already.
October 17, 2008 6:12 PM | Reply | Permalink
I love this pair of sentences:
"They were really concerned that in the final stretch people will feel their $50 or $100 don't matter."
"It's hard to imagine that this could become a major factor, given Obama's huge financial advantage."
Thanks for a good chuckle, Greg.
October 17, 2008 6:13 PM | Reply | Permalink
They've learned from Dean and the mistakes made in the Kerry campaign. Take nothing for granted and remain on the offence.
It will be interesting to see how many millions are still in the bank after election day.
I think John McCain is going to have to ask Cindy for an advance on his allowance.
October 17, 2008 6:21 PM | Reply | Permalink
Gotta say, once I heard about the 30-minute ad buys, I began to think, "Gee, I could really use that $200 myself."
But I'm sure as hell going to vote.
October 17, 2008 6:48 PM | Reply | Permalink
To borrow HusseinTenaX's deft words upthread:
"I love it - he does fight - hard."
Good god what an electrifying change Obama is from--
well, take your pick--the "old" Kerry, Reid, Pelosi,
the list is endless.
The Obama letter to the AG and Special Prosecutor
damning the McCain-Palin filthy voter fraud scam and demanding it be stopped is breathtaking.
October 17, 2008 7:17 PM | Reply | Permalink
And now the MSM is saying it might be over early? Thanks, oh wonderful MSM!
http://news.yahoo.com/s/politico/20081017/pl_politico/14660
October 17, 2008 7:31 PM | Reply | Permalink
I agree that they should be cautious. Look at the last 2 presidential elections. Our voting system is flawed, no doubt. I am just happy to hear the the LA Times just endorsed Senator Obama. We must be vigil. The next two weeks are going to be nerve wreaking. I just saw the recent video of Congresswoman from Minnesota. She has no shame. It was great how Chris Matthews essential asked her "so you think all Democrats in Congress are liberals, therefore, anti-American." This Congresswoman is calling all liberals anti-American. Is this what this election is coming down to? This is completely absurd!
October 17, 2008 8:08 PM | Reply | Permalink
Is it still private if it is plastered all over the web?
Inquiring minds want to know. . . .
October 17, 2008 8:43 PM | Reply | Permalink
Alright, I just made another donation. That "private" call has I hope had the proper effect. It certainly worked for me!
October 17, 2008 9:15 PM | Reply | Permalink
Barack,
I already sent in my absentee ballot. You're good to go.
Don't worry. We're still fighting.
October 18, 2008 9:19 AM | Reply | Permalink
Good strategy, maintain the right level of confidence (we're campaigning for a WINNER!) yet temper it was caution (we better campaign so we can become the winner). GOBAMA!!!
How about this racist?
October 18, 2008 10:06 AM | Reply | Permalink
I signed up for an account on TPM because of this conversation. Everyone here is so positive, it's great to see.
I'm also going to send in another check. I think the "complacency" point is really about hedging the risk that the race gets so close as to make every last Obama vote count. These latest tactics on the part of McCain's campaign, while vile and horrid, could be effective, and that's the possibility we need to hedge against.
But yeah, every Obama supporter I know is fired up, although we're a pretty passionate bunch. It's not us anyone should be worried about.
October 18, 2008 11:15 AM | Reply | Permalink
Oh, and I wanted to add that although I never shook his hand (as some here have), I did snap this shot of Obama when he was in Albuquerque during the primaries. It was a pretty intimate event:
http://www.flickr.com/photos/ybonesy/2237867366/
October 18, 2008 11:23 AM | Reply | Permalink
Getting out to vote is doubly important because Obama needs not only to win but .... Win by a landslide!
The Repubs can't use the electronic voting machines to their advantage if the vote is totally lopsided. In the 2004 election the percentiles of win were always this 49 percent opposed to 51 percent .... Don't give them the opportunity to duplicate their dishonesty in 2008!
October 18, 2008 11:59 AM | Reply | Permalink
(Full disclosure : I am an independent leaning towards Obama and rooting for him. I live in Appalachia tempered with working in Atlanta. )
A few weeks ago, was meeting folks - who use N-word in private - leaning Obama. Was heartened for us all as a nation - at least folks are thinking objectivity in their personal interest and in a weird manner overcoming their prejudice.
As things stand today, I think the polls and media is way behind on time and missing lot currently happening on ground.
Sarah Palin/McCain negative campaign is working. Its taking firm root.
The election will be very very very close with Obama barely sneaking by victory (which would be bad for the country).
McCain can do fine as a President with a narrow victory not but not Obama.
Obama has to have a landslide victory or McCain narrow victory is preferable.
Narrow Obama victory would mean a divided country with significant population thinking its a stolen election, etc and ruinous in more ways than the change agenda.
I really think Obamites are taking victory lap way too prematurely.
Would love to objective views from other parts of nation.
October 18, 2008 12:51 PM | Reply | Permalink
Jason:
I'm in California so it seems like we will have a landslide. My folks are in Texas and whenever I send them news from TPM or 538 showing Palin's popularity crashing, or the polls giving Obama a big lead they act surprised. They only watch Fox News and read the right-wing Fort Worth Star Telegram, so they don't get all the news. My feeling that red staters who watch right wing news and listen to Rush Limbaugh still think McCain's in the lead. But when Obama beats McCain 3-0 in debates from CNN and CBS with indies by a 59-31 margin it's over. When the market falls 28% this year and Obama ties McCain successfully to Bush's failures, it's over.
I know it's unpopular to say because we all might get complacent, but this is going to be a landslide. Obama is the right candidate at the right time with the right temperament. McCain blew it with Palin, fundamentals are strong, 90% and being for more deregulation.
IT'S OVER. The good guys won. Finally. I'm going to contribute to Senate races from here on in.
October 19, 2008 12:02 AM | Reply | Permalink
tightening polls will be good for Obama
October 18, 2008 5:10 PM | Reply | Permalink
things don't look too complacent in st. louis:
http://blogs.wsj.com/washwire/2008/10/18/obama-rally-draws-100000-in-missouri/
*
October 18, 2008 7:30 PM | Reply | Permalink
Went to a rally in the red city of Rio Rancho in battleground state NM, and stood on the busiest street corner for some time holding Obama signs with about a hundred other folks. Very encouraging signs---honking, thumbs up, waves, smiles---outnumber the birds and thumbs down two-to-one. Then I went and signed up for canvassing in the same district Wed morning. I'm jazzed.
October 18, 2008 8:40 PM | Reply | Permalink
I have volunteered for the past three Saturdays, two for canvassing and another today to make phone calls to Virginia (a battleground state). Since I live in DC, I am able to help make a bigger difference in terms of human-to-human contact.
The excitement for Obama is palpable, organized and does not show any signs of slowing down from where I stand. However, it is a danger that people could be getting complacent. Most of the people I've been working with want to push this thing over the top so a mandate is realized.
The only thing discouraging to me are the responses from Obama-supporting friends when I ask them to volunteer and they either blow me off or say "I'm too busy. I'm meeting my sister for dinner" or something. So many people don't realize that simply promising to vote won't cut it. To paraphrase the Powell Doctrine, you have to go into a war with overwhelming force. I get the feeling that is Obama's approach. Now if we can just get the "too busy to help" crowd to understand this.
October 18, 2008 10:52 PM | Reply | Permalink
The McCain robocalls, McCain's performance on Letterman, Palin's desperate, racist references on the stump are all working ... to get more Obama support at the polls.
October 19, 2008 12:14 AM | Reply | Permalink