Three Polls Show Obama Tied Or Ahead In Deep-Red North Dakota
Might the Obama campaign have acted prematurely when they pulled out of North Dakota a little over three weeks ago, when the polls there looked pretty bad for them?
Three polls over the last few days have now shown that Obama is now either ahead or tied in a state that hasn't voted Democratic since the LBJ landslide of 1964:
• Research 2000, released today: Obama 45%, McCain 45%, compared to a 53%-40% McCain lead from mid-September, shortly before the Obama camp packed up and left.
• DFM (D), released yesterday: Obama 44%, McCain 41%, within the ±4.4% margin of error.
• Fargo Forum, released on Monday: Obama 45%, McCain 43%, within the ±4% margin of error.
As of this afternoon, Pollster.com scores the state as Obama 44.6%, McCain 42.7%.
This is a state that voted 63%-36% for President Bush in 2004, and the Obama campaign had previously given up hope here. If the Obama campaign's internal polling shows anything like this, we may see a rethinking of their decision to pull out.
As North Dakota goes...
http://pufferfish.typepad.com/
October 17, 2008 3:21 PM | Reply | Permalink
I suppose McCain pulled out as well, so maybe it will even out?
October 17, 2008 3:22 PM | Reply | Permalink
Even "the real America" knows better.
October 17, 2008 3:26 PM | Reply | Permalink
I guess there must be a whole host of anti-American small towns in ole' NorDakota to cause this....
October 17, 2008 3:28 PM | Reply | Permalink
Will Montana be next? He was in single digits there in the first week of October.
October 17, 2008 3:28 PM | Reply | Permalink
C'mon Montana: you like Sweitzer, I know you'll love Obama!
October 17, 2008 3:29 PM | Reply | Permalink
Trying to figure out the states that are not being polled much is an interesting challenge.
We are seeing a 10-12% swing in all the states we can see over the last 3-4 weeks.
I would suggest that applying that range to any other state will give you a good idea to where a state is today.....
GA is in play and will be blue and hopefully take Saxby out as well...
October 17, 2008 6:33 PM | Reply | Permalink
Here is a great post from the editor of PoliticalBlog, Mark Nickolaus, a political operative who is in Helena, MT.
He feels strongly that Obama will win narrowly there and Ron Paul will be a huge help.
http://www.politicalbase.com/profile/Mark%20Nickolas/blog/&blogId=3771
October 17, 2008 6:42 PM | Reply | Permalink
The uptick in the polls has all come AFTER the pullout of paid staff, so I'm thinking there are enough volunteers actively engaged in North Dakota to have kept the campaign afloat and helped to bring about this result. I visited North Dakota in mid-August and attended a Dem-NPL event there. The Obama Chair for the State, Dan Hanaher, was cautious, but optimistic, believing that with offices spread across the state all spring and summer, they were in a great position to bring in a victory. That post-convention poll must have given him pause as it appeared Palin may have made a huge difference there, but clearly the bloom is off that rose and North Dakotans are coming around.
Obama has been to North Dakota several times, and that makes a big difference there where, though they regularly vote Republican at the top of the ticket, they've had a fully Democratic Congressional delegation for years. They like their politics up close and personal, and they like real competence in their elected officials, as evidenced by Senators Conrad and Dorgan and Congressman Pomeroy.
October 17, 2008 3:31 PM | Reply | Permalink
sounds good. Maybe another visit would help out.
October 17, 2008 3:35 PM | Reply | Permalink
Hi, Alice -- long time no see. You sum up well the situation here on the ground in ND. The Obama lawn signs far outnumber McCain's in Fargo. And the enthusiasm for Obama is strong.
And in the true spirit of progressivism, while the "First Stalker" is Sportsman-ing for McCain across the river in Moorhead, we cast our absentee ballots today.
Go-bama!
~ Prairie [who is also Sandy Huseby]
October 17, 2008 3:49 PM | Reply | Permalink
When I saw this headline I thought "Ooh, I should call my mom -- she probably has firsthand info on this stuff." And here she is commenting. Hi, mom!
October 17, 2008 7:35 PM | Reply | Permalink
I guess this means that North Dakota goes on the list of anti-American traitor states.
October 17, 2008 3:33 PM | Reply | Permalink
It figures. Right there on the border of Canada...
October 17, 2008 3:39 PM | Reply | Permalink
It's probably the corrupting influence of their big cities, like Fargo and Bismarck. Hell's Bells, Minneapolis/St. Paul is not all that far away from North Dakota, and they elected the first Muslim congressman, so you know that they hate America.
October 17, 2008 3:42 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yes, we in Minneapolis-St. Paul have hatched a Master Plan to spread hatred of America to the four corners of North Dakota. We expanded the intertubes during a midnight raid from our evil stronghold in Moorehead. From there we move into Montana...
October 17, 2008 5:17 PM | Reply | Permalink
And if you can see across that and Alaska . . .
October 17, 2008 3:57 PM | Reply | Permalink
All Obama needs to do to win North Dakota is go to a few Ludifisk festivals this fall,,,,, and smile when it eats some. That will get him the Norski block vote.
October 17, 2008 3:33 PM | Reply | Permalink
I fear that may be asking too much of any human being. I don't think I could smile within 20 feet of a plate of lutefisk. Heck, just the smell makes me grimace.
October 17, 2008 3:45 PM | Reply | Permalink
Hi Dorothy,
Missed you at the Algonquin today for lunch. ;-)
Harpo
October 17, 2008 4:04 PM | Reply | Permalink
Alas, Dottie was at home alone, penning witticisms and feeling sorry for herself. ;-)
October 17, 2008 4:31 PM | Reply | Permalink
And going through a bottle of vodka by herself.
October 17, 2008 5:03 PM | Reply | Permalink
If it's anything like what happened here in Georgia, they didn't really leave even when they left. There were still tons of volunteers and even some official presence here even during the time the news said they had gone, so now upon their "return" it's more that they're reinforcing and extending their efforts instead of picking up where they'd left off.
October 17, 2008 3:35 PM | Reply | Permalink
Agree - the volunteer org. in Atlanta has been humming along supported by a reduced staff but still working very hard.
In Athens where you are Alex DeGolia was the leader and is a friend who stayed with us in Atlanta for 3 weeks before going to Athens where U GA is.
GA is going BLUE!
October 17, 2008 6:37 PM | Reply | Permalink
There will be a state or two that will "shock" on election night. Georgia and Arkansas are two that would really put the m in mandate, especially Georgia.
October 17, 2008 3:43 PM | Reply | Permalink
Not to worry, they can reconstitute their volunteer org pretty quickly if they haven't already. My guess is they might not have staffers in place but volunteer leaders are there.
They can also deploy hordes of virtual phone bankers into the state from around the country.
October 17, 2008 3:47 PM | Reply | Permalink
More poll porn.
Rasmussen, 10/16 (sneak peek):
Colorado:
O - 52
M - 45
Nevada:
O - 50
M - 45
Both are a +1 improvement for Obama over last weeks Rasmussen polls in these states.
October 17, 2008 3:52 PM | Reply | Permalink
Kind of makes you wonder what the numbers look like in other red states that no one ever bothers to poll.
October 17, 2008 3:58 PM | Reply | Permalink
What I'm wondering is who McShame's going to try to stuff into the wood-chipper for this one?
October 17, 2008 4:04 PM | Reply | Permalink
THIS IS EXCELLENT NEWS!! FOR MCCAIN!!!
October 17, 2008 4:11 PM | Reply | Permalink
They are all trending blue, MT,ND and..............Kentucky? I don't know but Obama is STRICTLY on offense right now and that is not where Mac wants to be.
October 17, 2008 4:24 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yup. "We're right where we want to be."
October 17, 2008 4:24 PM | Reply | Permalink
"If the Obama campaign's internal polling shows anything like this, we may see a rethinking of their decision to pull out."
There is nothing to rethink. The road to 270 doesn't run through North Dakota. And McCain won't waste $$$ there regardless of the polling.
October 17, 2008 4:31 PM | Reply | Permalink
They "pulled out" of North Dakota after setting up a local organization, because there was no need to do voter registration.
That's because there IS no voter registration for NoDaks. You simply show up on election day, show your ID, and vote. So they put their national people to work elsewhere during registration season. There was no reason to pound the pavement in Lisbon or Mandan or heaven knows where back in August or September.
Now that registration is over most everywhere else, it's time to saturate the Fargo-Moorhead TV market...and bring back folks to help the locals.
If they win Nevada and North Dakota, they don't have to win any of the other red battleground states. It's a terrific insurance policy, and the 50 state strategy means exactly that. You show up and fight in all 50 state. And that way, if an opportunity like NoDak turns up, you can pivot quickly and take advantage.
You all can keep your ludefisk and lefse. But I'll take the three electoral votes. You betcha!
October 17, 2008 5:06 PM | Reply | Permalink
Mmmmmm, lefse!
October 17, 2008 7:31 PM | Reply | Permalink
I've said it before, and I'll say it again now: North Dakota and Montana are in play. And now, these states have returned to the point they were at before McCain's convention/Palin bounce. Back in those heady days of yore, the polls had been trending toward toss-up territory with the occasional blue blip on several election tracker sites' maps.
I have also said before that Texas is closer than people think. The metropolitan areas are primed to go for Obama and some of the heavily Latino districts are just itching for a change. I admit that Texas is a longshot, but don't rule it out.
And then there is Georgia...and West Virginia...and Indiana...and Missouri...and...
October 17, 2008 4:54 PM | Reply | Permalink
We do folks keep lumping Missouri in those lists as if we were some sort of deep red state? We are not. We are the very quintessential swing state. We went wish Bush in 2004 and 2000, yes, but we also went with Clinton in 1996 and 1992. We have swung back and forth for decades now (quite unlike Indiana or Georgia or Montana, etc).
October 17, 2008 5:30 PM | Reply | Permalink
Incidentally, it is also not clear to me why folks keep lumping West Virginia in with the deep red states. WV went for Dukakis in 1988 and then for Clinton in both 1992 and 1996. Sure, it went for Bush in the last two elections, but so did FL and no one is remarking with surprise that they might be going for Obama this time around.
October 17, 2008 5:34 PM | Reply | Permalink
The media does this AMV, we know what are the swing states and what aren't. After the election they will be called Obama states though.
October 17, 2008 5:55 PM | Reply | Permalink
http://www.generationswithvision.com/default.aspx
Kevin Swanson advocate of "HATE and FEAR"
October 17, 2008 6:06 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'm guessing that the people of North Dakota are getting more pissed off at Sarah Palin for stealing their accent and passing it off as her own....
October 17, 2008 6:14 PM | Reply | Permalink