Still More Polls Find Obama Leading In Multiple Bush States
Still more polling, this time from the Associated Press, paints a bleak picture for McCain in at least six Bush states:
Barack Obama now leads in four states won by President Bush in 2004 and is essentially tied with John McCain in two other Republican red states, according to new AP-GfK battleground polling...The polling shows Obama holding solid leads in Ohio (7 percentage points), Nevada (12 points), Colorado (9) and Virginia (7), all red states won by Bush that collectively offer 47 electoral votes....
In addition, Obama is tied with McCain in North Carolina and Florida, according to the AP-GfK polling.
To put this in perspective, consider that if Obama holds the Kerry states, and doesn't win either Ohio or Florida, he can still win by putting together a combination of two or three out of Colorado, Virginia, Nevada, and North Carolina, three of which he's leading by sizable margins.
And that's not even including the multiple other Bush states he's leading in, such as New Mexico, Iowa, and Missouri. In short: Even without Ohio or Florida, getting the Kerry states, plus two or three of these seven -- CO, VA, NC, NM, IA, MO, NV -- makes Obama the next President.
On to AZ!!!
October 29, 2008 11:51 AM | Reply | Permalink
And McLame needs every Bush state plus a blue one to win.
I just don't see how he can do that. Obama is way ahead in Pennsylvania.
October 29, 2008 11:52 AM | Reply | Permalink
It's checkmate. They just won't give up the game till they've lost ALL their pieces!
October 29, 2008 11:54 AM | Reply | Permalink
Actually, if McCain wins all the Bush states (except IA and NM) he will win even without PA.
But, given stories like this and big leads for Obama in CO, VA that is a remote possibility. With all the focus on PA, the McCain camp appears to agree.
October 29, 2008 12:03 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'll wait until the weekend state polling to be convinced that there is no lag between national and state polls. There's no question we're seeing the the gap close nationally (apparently Gallup will show McCain +2 in their traditional LV model today )but maybe it is all coming from deep red states.
October 29, 2008 11:53 AM | Reply | Permalink
*sigh*
According to Nate Silver, yesterday, there is no tightening in the state polls.
And that's what he follows instead of the nationals.
October 29, 2008 11:55 AM | Reply | Permalink
If you're basing this on "HE"'s post at 538, don't be so sure..."HE" is a parody character. Is it on Drudge? (Sad to ask...but if it's not there, even more reason to doubt it.)
October 29, 2008 11:58 AM | Reply | Permalink
Written by Nate!
October 29, 2008 11:59 AM | Reply | Permalink
I don't see a comment from Nate about McCain holding a +2 in today's forthcoming Gallup LV-Trad anywhere...unless it's buried in one of the threads.
It might be true, but I'm just saying, don't use "HE" as a barometer of reliability. His comment is already being referenced in a thread over at Kos, and I'm not sure it's at all true. "HE" is a parody poster and usually rants in over-the-top language against Obama and for the Marines, etc.
October 29, 2008 12:04 PM | Reply | Permalink
I asked on the other thread, but I don't think you noticed: where'd you get that teaser about Gallup?
October 29, 2008 12:00 PM | Reply | Permalink
It could be BS - a comment on 538. We'll see at 1 pm.
October 29, 2008 12:02 PM | Reply | Permalink
Thanks.
October 29, 2008 12:08 PM | Reply | Permalink
The polls were conducted from Oct 22-26, i.e. the last day of the poll was Sunday.
It is clear that the national polls have shifted towards McCain in the last two days.
So, these polls do not tell us what is happening right now in swing states.
This thing is far from over. And I think it is a big tactical mistake for TPM to be spending so much time and energy focusing on the latest polls in the last week of the campaign, where maybe 10% of voters are right now making their decisions.
Every article about the latest poll is an article not about health care or pushing back against the charge of socialism. "It's inevitable that we will win" is not a useful narrative to develop when the other side is hammering you with negative attacks that appear to be resonating.
Substance, not horse race numbers, rule the day in the long run.
October 29, 2008 12:08 PM | Reply | Permalink
not alot of 10% in here
October 29, 2008 12:14 PM | Reply | Permalink
This will sound quite rude, but what the heck. Thanks for the lecture about substance ruling the day. Who would have thought that a black man named Barack Hussein Obama could be ahead at this point? Well, maybe that very candidate and his supporters who have been focusing relentlessly on substance, rather than personality.
And thanks for the lecture about the emphasis on the polls. Did you miss the coverage of the B hoax? The coverage of the campaign propaganda? The coverage of the robocalls?
And finally, what's your evidence to state so emphatically that the national polls have moved in McCain's favor for the last two days?
October 29, 2008 12:16 PM | Reply | Permalink
And it is just as likely as that 10% will stay home or go with the perceived winner rather than vote for the erratic and annoying white guy.
October 29, 2008 12:34 PM | Reply | Permalink
I checked the internals on this poll and is worse news that McCainiacs might think.
They oversampled Evangelicals again.
October 29, 2008 12:42 PM | Reply | Permalink
That's actually not quite correct, though technically true... What about Iowa and New Mexico? Both appear to be locks for Obama, which means Obama needs only ONE of the states you listed there, not two or three. Yes, even Nevada would do the trick because a tie goes to Obama.
October 29, 2008 11:55 AM | Reply | Permalink
Obama takes: New Mexico, Colorado, Iowa and Virginia for certain sure.
I also think Penn. is Obama's - which means McLame cannot win.
October 29, 2008 11:58 AM | Reply | Permalink
I'm betting everything that's a tossup at this point goes blue. His ground game advantage is enormous, not to mention the general angry climate against Republicans.
http://pufferfish.typepad.com/
October 29, 2008 12:00 PM | Reply | Permalink
PA. Definitely Obama!
October 29, 2008 12:01 PM | Reply | Permalink
Agreed. Plus Ohio's looking better and better anyway.
October 29, 2008 12:02 PM | Reply | Permalink
see next paragraph
October 29, 2008 12:02 PM | Reply | Permalink
You said it, Greg. I see that.
October 29, 2008 12:07 PM | Reply | Permalink
I saved 10 enormous mortar rounds from my 4th of July pyro display for the night of Nov 4th. I love all you guys!
October 29, 2008 12:01 PM | Reply | Permalink
HAHA - I forwarded that AP piece from this morning to about six McCain supporters I know and NOT ONE of them have responded.
They're usually right back at me with the whole "Osama" or "These liberal polls are bullshit!" talking points, but with six days left, they're suddenly quiet.
Guess that's probably the same story with a lot of right wingers these days.
October 29, 2008 12:01 PM | Reply | Permalink
Once I made it past the one week to go mark with Obama this far ahead, I got very calm.
There's less than a week to go, two days of that are a weekend.
I suppose Bush or Israel could nuke Iran and throw things off, but that's a big "if".
The McLame Campaign is in ruins. The Repug Party is in ruins -they're cannibalizing each other and the campaign.
Someone show me how in the hell under those circumstances the GOP can win this election from this far behind less than a week from election day.
October 29, 2008 12:05 PM | Reply | Permalink
Diebold. But no, I hope that won't even work this year.
October 29, 2008 12:07 PM | Reply | Permalink
Not in the presidential race.
The margin is too great and the entire momentum of the election - they try that and there will be hell to pay, I predict.
October 29, 2008 12:15 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yeah, I believe turn out will be too high to pull that off this year.
I think the election will go fine. I'm more worried about the remaining Bush months afterwards. Keep your guard up.
October 29, 2008 12:24 PM | Reply | Permalink
Nah, the media would have a feeding frenzy if Obama lost any of the battleground states he had a wide lead in - far too suspicious, especially this year and with how many lawyers are on the ground.
There won't as many machine "malfunctions" this year as there was in 2004 - too many eyes watching.
October 29, 2008 12:23 PM | Reply | Permalink
Don't joke about that - knowing Bush, he and Cheney WILL nuke someone before Tuesday just to scare voters towards McCain.
Bush can then claim that he was responsible for uniting the Republican Party when they needed him most and that will be his legacy!
A nightmare scenario, but I wouldn't laugh it off!
October 29, 2008 12:19 PM | Reply | Permalink
I think Bush has used his position to try and influence the election, but not much. But I think it's pretty fruitless. How many people actually trust the White House right now? And how many of those who trust the W.H. would possibly vote Obama?
I gotta say, it's a pretty freaking small percentage. Even Bush wouldn't nuke someone, and can you imagine another invasion with our strected army? No, scratch any White House influence on this one.
October 29, 2008 12:44 PM | Reply | Permalink
Two things:
Given that Rasmussen is rated as one of the most reliable pollsters by fivethirtyeight, is anyone concerned with the mere four point spread they show in most of the battleground states?
What is the import, if any, of Obama's slow decline in the national polls?
October 29, 2008 12:03 PM | Reply | Permalink
I don't know that he's "declining" at all.
If you're talking about Gallup, Rasmussen or R2K, his decline has been from 52 to 51 to 50, depending on the pollster. Technically, it is a decline, but a significant one?
On the other hand, if you look at Newsweek, LATimes/Bloomberg, etc, there hasn't been any decline at all.
October 29, 2008 12:06 PM | Reply | Permalink
Is it significant? If you mean statistically, then maybe. Each 'decline' is within the margin of error, but they all are going the same way (but it's pretty freaking small)
If you mean does it matter in next week's race? Well, to me a 6+% national lead is pretty encouraging. Plus, the Obama campaign is now finally responding to all of the McCain crap he's been dishing the last couple days.
So, is it significant? Nope--McCain's going to have to do more in the next couple days if he has a chance at a comeback,IMO.
October 29, 2008 12:39 PM | Reply | Permalink
I did mean "significant' in the statistical sense.
In the larger sense, I don't know that national tracking polls are significant. But I do know that at this point in 2004, Kerry was consistently behind in tracking polls, much like McCain is now.
October 29, 2008 12:45 PM | Reply | Permalink
Look at the big picture. Nearly every national poll out there has Obama over 50%. Those same polls show McCain in the low to mid 40s. What I see is statistical noise. Obama's numbers consistently range between 48 -52%, though mostly +50%. This suggests his floor is currently no lower than 48% and probably higher than that.
Meanwhile McCain's numbers consistently range between 41-46% His ceiling appears to be around 46%...AND, his numbers have been more prone to movement, suggesting that they are soft.
Obama's numbers are nearly rock solid at +50%. This suggests that Obama's numbers are firmer.
Add to this that McCain needs to essentially run the table in all the battleground states.
Still, we all need to do everything we can to help put Obama over the top. Don't let up.
October 29, 2008 2:17 PM | Reply | Permalink
What "slow decline"?
Obama hasn't been below 50% in so long I can't remember when it was .
October 29, 2008 12:08 PM | Reply | Permalink
Boy, this is a really stupid McBlame mailer featuring the Hit-man, I mean, Todd Palin. From Hallperin:
http://thepage.time.com/2008/10/29/the-first-dude-jumps-in/?xid=rss-page
October 29, 2008 12:04 PM | Reply | Permalink
O. My. God.
That's one of the stupidest fucking things I've ever seen. They really believe a majority of fuckwits wants to tear up our national parks with snomobiles? I have news for them - that's not a winning position.
That and ATVs - two of the most controversial subjects for anyone who lives or vacations in or near national forest land and wilderness areas. ATVs are more controversial but both are the subject of a low-level war in the mountain west.
October 29, 2008 12:13 PM | Reply | Permalink
but... you forget the crucial Maine snow-mobiler, er, snow-machiner vote. ;)
October 29, 2008 12:19 PM | Reply | Permalink
No I'm not cause I know how it is in the Rockies. Snomobiles are popular but there is a lot of tension between environmental concerns and idiots who want to tear up every bit of national park and forest and wilderness with the things, and with ATVs.
The thing is, motorized recreation is obnoxious and people are by and large fed up with it. Except for the obnoxious assholes who like to do it.
Where I used to be in Colorado is overrun with ATVs and they've been fighting over it up there for a number of years now. The town of Lake City finally let the people vote on allowing them in town and overwhelmingly defeated the merchants who want them to be in town. Overwhelmingly.
Snomobiles are not quite as controversial, but they are controversial enough.
October 29, 2008 1:03 PM | Reply | Permalink
From today's script...
Very nice!
October 29, 2008 12:08 PM | Reply | Permalink
I said it earlier and I'll say it again - I'm kind of happy the polls are tightening. It'll make Obama supporters not planning to vote due to his lead to get up and run to the voting booth.
October 29, 2008 12:10 PM | Reply | Permalink
Agreed! Polls tightening on a national level, while staying constant at a state level, is the BEST thing that could happen at this point. Most people never even bother to look at internals, they just see that topline on the news.
Not only that, if it DOES significantly tighten over the next couple days, the media will play it up.
On the flip side- mccain showing some potential could also bring out some of his voters that had given up, so it could be a wash.
October 29, 2008 12:56 PM | Reply | Permalink
What was that line from "The Color of Money"?
"It just keeps gettin' worse and worse..."
:-)
October 29, 2008 12:24 PM | Reply | Permalink
I was polled for this AP poll late last week, here in Virginia. While most of the questions were typical poll questions, some of the racial relation questions were really push-polls. For example, the "violent" question was appalling.
October 29, 2008 12:41 PM | Reply | Permalink
Gallup #s are in, and somewhat of a relief:
RV O 51, McCain 42 (O +1, M -1)
LV expanded O 51, M 44 (no change)
LV trad O 49, M 46 (M -1)
October 29, 2008 1:08 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yeah, saw it.
There should be tightening until the weekend...and then it all collapses....
I think that is what the Obamas want.
Fear leading to huge wage of boots on the ground.
The word crush comes to mind.
October 29, 2008 1:24 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'm starting to feel really comfortable, like I just spent an hour in Ted Stevens massage chair. Ahhh, here come the shiatsu rollers now down my spine.
October 29, 2008 2:18 PM | Reply | Permalink