Stevens Conviction Makes Huge Dem Senate Pickup Very Likely
The big news today in the Alaska Senate race -- that Sen. Ted Stevens (R) was convicted on all counts in his corruption trial, and now faces up to five years in prison -- might just guarantee a huge Democratic pickup in this deep-red state next week.
Stevens' initially took a huge dive in the polls after his indictment over the Summer, falling behind Anchorage Mayor Mark Begich (D) by about 20 points. As the controversy settled down and Stevens vowed to beat the charges at trial, his numbers began inching up again -- and a poll last week from local pollster Ivan Moore put him behind Begich by only one point.
But with Stevens now officially a convicted felon, any good will he built up with voters will probably be falling away very quickly. Over the next eight days, voters are likely to swing heavily to Begich in a state that hasn't elected a Dem to federal office since 1974. And this also puts the Democrats one step closer to that magic number of 60 seats.
Meanwhile, the Alaska Dems have put out this statement, calling upon Stevens to resign:
"Senator Stevens' felony convictions are very serious and he should immediately resign from the United States Senate. He knew what he was doing was wrong, but he did it anyway and lied to Alaskans about it. Alaskans deserve better from their public officials. It's time for us to elect an ethical and honest Senator who will move this state forward."
In all likelihood, the Dems don't have too much to worry about -- the voters might be getting rid of Stevens no matter what he decides to do.
Well, at least they'll get to keep their governor.
October 27, 2008 4:47 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yeah, lucky them! ;-)
October 27, 2008 4:49 PM | Reply | Permalink
Eric, that's up to five years for each of the seven counts, though sentencing guiedlines should severly limit that and five years may in fact be what he ends up with but he is at risk for more. It's certainly possible he will die in prison. Hulk smashed.
October 27, 2008 5:38 PM | Reply | Permalink
"Guarantees"?
This is the state that elected Palin and has an active sessionist movement. In politics, what is ever "guaranteed"?
October 27, 2008 4:49 PM | Reply | Permalink
Mark Begich is pretty lame (I think I saw a David Kurtz interview vid), but he's good enough to take AK.
October 27, 2008 4:49 PM | Reply | Permalink
Not so fast. Apparently, Alaskans don't mind breaking the law as long as their candidates are smoking cigars and/or hunting moose.
Alaska is the capital of Real America.
October 27, 2008 4:49 PM | Reply | Permalink
IF Stevens won re-election before the guilty verdict and resigned afterwards, would Gov. Palin have named his replacement?
October 27, 2008 4:50 PM | Reply | Permalink
yes
October 27, 2008 4:52 PM | Reply | Permalink
That is could Palin have stepped down as Governor, having her Lieutenant Gov take over and promptly name her to the Senate where she could have started working on her national security credentials for the 2012 election?
October 27, 2008 4:52 PM | Reply | Permalink
Sure, you betcha!
October 27, 2008 4:54 PM | Reply | Permalink
That manuever would leave such a bad taste in people's mouths that it would counterbalance any "credentials" she built up.
October 27, 2008 4:55 PM | Reply | Permalink
How about Senator First Dude?
October 27, 2008 4:57 PM | Reply | Permalink
d00d 0ne???
October 27, 2008 5:02 PM | Reply | Permalink
If only. Is there a better Republican candidate for 2012, from a Democratic perspective, than Sarah Palin?
October 27, 2008 5:08 PM | Reply | Permalink
Latest rumor is that it's Romney's people that have been leaking a bunch of the stuff lately about Palin in an effort to sink her chances at 2012.
If that's true, after this thing is finished Republicans are going to owe him a HUGE favor for that.
October 27, 2008 5:29 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yeah, reportedly they were the sources behind the "diva" comment...
October 27, 2008 5:36 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yeah. That's part of being a governor. Hell, it wouldn't surprise me if she appointed herself and left the governor's seat to the Lt. Governor if she gets the chance.
October 27, 2008 5:07 PM | Reply | Permalink
No. Voters changed Alaska law after the corrupt Murkowski appointment, so the governor no longer appoints. A special election would be required.
October 27, 2008 8:38 PM | Reply | Permalink
As goes Stevens, so goes the entire Republican Party, it is quite symbolic isn't it?:
http://www.thepersonalispolitical.com/2008/10/gop-senator-ted-stevens-convicted-felon.html
October 27, 2008 4:54 PM | Reply | Permalink
Check out the updates regarding Palin!
Obama, get ads up about these quick!!
http://thinkprogress.org/2008/10/27/stevens-guilty/
October 27, 2008 4:56 PM | Reply | Permalink
It may be too late to take his name off the ballot in any case.
October 27, 2008 4:57 PM | Reply | Permalink
According to the NY Times:
Mr. Stevens is certain to appeal the conviction, and his supporters are also likely to explore the possibility of obtaining a pardon from a fellow Republican, President George W. Bush, before Mr. Bush leaves office in January...
A senator can be expelled only by a two-thirds vote of the entire Senate, so a conviction does not automatically cost a lawmaker his seat.
October 27, 2008 4:58 PM | Reply | Permalink
While on appeal he is still a felon.
October 27, 2008 5:06 PM | Reply | Permalink
Just means he can't vote for himself.
Republicans. Funnier than a bag of angry gerbils!
October 28, 2008 12:38 AM | Reply | Permalink
Off-topic, but there's a good New Yorker article up about Hagel and his isolation amongst Republicans:
http://www.newyorker.com/reporting/2008/11/03/081103fa_fact_bruck?printable=true
Money quote:
October 27, 2008 5:00 PM | Reply | Permalink
Co-sign.
October 27, 2008 5:03 PM | Reply | Permalink
Thanks for the link.
Hagel is so right on. The MSM has been working hand in glove with the right wing's lowering of standards for some time now. With the Sarah Palin pick, they were all over the map, first horrified, then when they saw how popular she was, taking the opposite stance.
Forty years ago, the media would have come down on the Palin choice like a ton of bricks, and stayed there.
October 27, 2008 5:07 PM | Reply | Permalink
Obviously, he's not a beer drinker.
October 27, 2008 5:10 PM | Reply | Permalink
He has high standards for his beer, I bet.
October 27, 2008 5:17 PM | Reply | Permalink
Probably that foreign stuff.
October 27, 2008 5:37 PM | Reply | Permalink
Wow, so Stevens can't even vote for himself.
October 27, 2008 5:00 PM | Reply | Permalink
If he did, would that be voter fraud?
October 27, 2008 5:06 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yes if it's illegal for a convicted to vote in Alaska, and I assume it is. It is in most states.
October 27, 2008 5:19 PM | Reply | Permalink
Tena, how about being convicted and being able to serve in office?
In other countries, if you are convicted of whatever, you lose the right to vote as well as the right to run for office and become an elected official.
From what Eric says above, it seems that he could still be re-elected... Is that so?
(I ask because you are a lawyer.)
October 27, 2008 6:52 PM | Reply | Permalink
Until one is unconditionally discharged from one's sentence, including probation.
October 27, 2008 9:07 PM | Reply | Permalink
You are correct. It is illegal for convicted felons to vote in Alaska.
October 27, 2008 8:04 PM | Reply | Permalink
Man, that's karma!
October 27, 2008 5:33 PM | Reply | Permalink
Who is Palin going to vote for?
October 27, 2008 5:08 PM | Reply | Permalink
What are the latest poll numbers for the Presidential race up there? 55-40 for McCain?
Any chance this outcome could reduce voter turnout on the Republican side, enough to make it close for President? I mean, the true red Republicans might just feel too embarrased to show up.
I know, probably wishful thinking on my part. But I'm looking for the largest possible win for the Dems this time -- a true landslide and a mandate.
-- ARG
October 27, 2008 5:13 PM | Reply | Permalink
Anything McCain says about Wright will now be overshadowed by this. And if those videos of Palin praising Stevens go into swing-state ads......
October 27, 2008 5:15 PM | Reply | Permalink
So does this bury the "redistribution" non-story?
October 27, 2008 5:14 PM | Reply | Permalink
Audiences were already having trouble staying awake whenever the "re . . .
zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz
October 27, 2008 5:57 PM | Reply | Permalink
I've been giggling on and off for over an hour over this...
Seriously, the Republicans longest serving Senator from one of the most Republican states in the union just got convicted of 7 felonies 8 days before an election.
Say it out loud and see if you don't start giggling too...
Spend from 2002 to 2005 calling me unAmerican for being against that stupid war and see if I don't just laugh at you when this happens to you.
Jerks.
October 27, 2008 5:16 PM | Reply | Permalink
What timing! Oh, the joys of the Constitutional right to a speedy trial!
October 27, 2008 5:31 PM | Reply | Permalink
Wow. I did as you suggested, and yes, I actually started laughing.
Good one.
October 27, 2008 5:42 PM | Reply | Permalink
Woman shouts "he's a ni**er" at Palin rally. Palin stumbles and ignores it.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G9T0FI2axbU
October 27, 2008 5:17 PM | Reply | Permalink
No, no, no. Not in my city. I guess they're everywhere.
Anyhow, who had Oct. 25th in the pool?
October 27, 2008 5:25 PM | Reply | Permalink
She clearly stumbled, so there's no doubt she heard it. At the end of the excerpt she talks about "other countries where the people are not free". Given her deafening silence in response to the epithet maybe Sarah longs for good old days in this country when the people weren't free. Shameless.
October 27, 2008 6:03 PM | Reply | Permalink
Is it too late for Palin to quit as VP candidate and replace Stevens as the GOP Senate nominee? Since the likelihood of winning the presidency seems to be fading, that at least would help the Republicans in their attempt to prevent Democratic control of 60 seats (and the Diva would get credit for temporarily salvaging McCain’s campaign after the convention and impeding a sure Democratic gain in the Senate all in the same year).
October 27, 2008 5:24 PM | Reply | Permalink
It's probably too late for Stevens to take his name off the ballot.
Wasn't there some push by Alaska Republicans to get Stevens to resign, before the trial, for this very reason? They're sunk.
October 27, 2008 5:35 PM | Reply | Permalink
Sarah Palin = George Wallace
Somebody needs to research her and lst dude to see if they have a background of racism.
October 27, 2008 5:38 PM | Reply | Permalink
Isn't there a pretty CLEAR connection with PALIN helping Stevens to get re-elected? Isn't she suspected of some of the same ethical violations? (tax evasion, gifts, etc)
Isn't there some way to JUSTLY connect her with Stevens the way Palin tried to UNJUSTLY connect Obama with Ayer's?
October 27, 2008 5:46 PM | Reply | Permalink
We need 61 -- 60 + no Lieberschmuck -- and this makes it more possible.
October 27, 2008 5:47 PM | Reply | Permalink
So . . . now will Palin say whether or not she supports him for reelection?
October 27, 2008 5:53 PM | Reply | Permalink
Palin needs to answer the question of how much paling around she has done with this felon, Ted Stevens.
October 27, 2008 7:21 PM | Reply | Permalink
Send money to Stevens opponent in Alaska. It's a close race and now that Stevens is a felon... this could be an easy add for the democrats in the senate.
I know we would LOVE to have a 60 senator majority that did not include 'Lieberweenie'. It looks possible.
October 27, 2008 7:36 PM | Reply | Permalink
I sent a donation to the DSCC. They are keenly interested in getting to 60 and will put the money where it's needed most.
October 28, 2008 12:40 AM | Reply | Permalink
I hope Al Franken brings back the Dead Fish Ad series, they made the point Norm Coleman had accepted several fancy fishing trips from Ted Stevens and his oil company buddies. All that needs to be done is put in a pointer to Stevens with the quote "Convicted Felon" -- and perhaps use the phrase "Pall'in around with a Convicted Felon" .....
October 28, 2008 12:20 AM | Reply | Permalink