Republicans Ceding Colorado, New Mexico And Iowa? Not So Much, They Claim
CNN got a lot of people going late yesterday by reporting that top Republicans had effectively given up on Colorado, Iowa, and New Mexico. One top McCain insider was quoted by CNN as saying these states are "gone."
That would be a big deal, if true, because it would put tremendous pressure on McCain to win Pennsylvania in order to put together an electoral college victory -- but Pennsylvania has all but slipped away for good, polls show.
But Republicans are now pushing back hard on the story here and here,
As usual, the real tell will be ad spending: Until the RNC and/or McCain yanks their ads in those states, they haven't ceded them in any meaningful sense. If you all see signs of diminished ad buys in these (or any other) states, let us know by clicking on the "tips" link in the upper-right-hand corner of this site.
Late Update: RNC spokesperson Liz Mair emails over the following: "RNC efforts are ongoing in these states, and Barack Obama would assume otherwise at his own peril."
I haven't heard a McCain radio ad in Santa Fe, NM, (I don't have TV) in over a week. Before that, I couldn't get away from them.
October 21, 2008 10:53 AM | Reply | Permalink
ABQ TV still inundated by McCain ads. Actually some non-negative ones running even.
October 21, 2008 10:55 AM | Reply | Permalink
Heimlich and White are locked in a pitched battle of negative advertising.
I'm kind of sick of both of them.
October 21, 2008 10:57 AM | Reply | Permalink
It's disgusting--I voted for the Dem one, but I considered White (he actually has been a pretty good ABQ police chief in my opinion), and even leaving the spot blank.
I don't like Heinrich at all (sure didn't vote for him in the primary) and if he wins really hopes he doesn't end up in some ethical mess. It was one of those voting decisions that just leaves a bad taste in your mouth either way...
October 21, 2008 11:06 AM | Reply | Permalink
I'm trying to remember the last time I saw a McLame ad. The Congressional races have moved to center stage - there are some down and dirty fighting going on for Congressional races -
October 21, 2008 10:55 AM | Reply | Permalink
Yeah, I would say to take them to some casino ring, give em gloves and see what happens. But then, I'm sure White (R) would bash Heinrich (D) (NM-01 race contenders) to little bits. I know southern NM is also ugly. So I guess your's is too?
October 21, 2008 10:59 AM | Reply | Permalink
Don't know really.
The dirty fighting here in the Taos Valley is the ongoing water fight - the pueblo, the county and El Prado have been fighting over water distribution now in court and elsewhere for I don't know how long- It's that same Acequia Madre fight that is going on in spots around northern New Mexico.
I haven't heard one thing about a local race here.
October 21, 2008 11:13 AM | Reply | Permalink
I don't know about the rest of New Mexico, but there are very damn few McLame ads running here - very few. Down a lot in the last couple of week, whereas, Obama's ads have increased.
October 21, 2008 10:54 AM | Reply | Permalink
How about robo calls? They're totally gone from WI (knock on wood).
October 21, 2008 11:04 AM | Reply | Permalink
I'm surprised but no robocalls.
I expected to get them since I thought this was a prime battleground state.
Not one.
October 21, 2008 11:18 AM | Reply | Permalink
Obama's got so much cash he doesn't know what to do with it. He should try and pick off Arizona in the last week just as a big FU.
http://pufferfish.typepad.com/
October 21, 2008 11:16 AM | Reply | Permalink
Oh I would love that!!! He can get folks from CA and NM to pour in!
October 21, 2008 11:17 AM | Reply | Permalink
McCain Now REALLY Forced to Defend ‘Red’ Territory: Mars!
http://satiricalpolitical.com/?p=4122
October 21, 2008 10:56 AM | Reply | Permalink
Yeah, but, he's winning in "real Virginia"! So there! Take that!
October 21, 2008 11:51 AM | Reply | Permalink
Can't we track ad buys?
I mean, isn't there a way to definitively say how many ads he has up in CO, NM and IA that's a little more accurate than asking people what they hear/see?
October 21, 2008 10:56 AM | Reply | Permalink
Yes, I agree that would be more accurate. There are a couple of non-profit organizations who do that routinely, but they do it on their own time, not when you ask them.
October 21, 2008 12:05 PM | Reply | Permalink
Or when they START running ads here in Kentucky - that'll be the real tell that they've completely lost all connection with reality.
October 21, 2008 10:56 AM | Reply | Permalink
LOL! I love it when folks have a sense of humor about living in a red state. Practically need it for survival skills...
October 21, 2008 11:06 AM | Reply | Permalink
Don't count us out yet - DINO Bruce Lunsford is now tied with Mitch McConnell.
If Lunsford can beat Mitch, anything can happen.
October 21, 2008 11:13 AM | Reply | Permalink
Oh, thats awesome! Wish we could kick Cornyn out here...
October 21, 2008 11:24 AM | Reply | Permalink
O god - isn't that the truth?
I should send Noriega some more money -
October 21, 2008 11:34 AM | Reply | Permalink
It seems like this tide has really started to rise in the last couple months and I think its caught everyone a little by surprise here?
October 21, 2008 11:40 AM | Reply | Permalink
If Bill is going to spend the time to come to Dallas, like he did last week, there is probably a good reason. They see a real chance here.
October 21, 2008 11:42 AM | Reply | Permalink
They have an obligation to down-ticket pols to act least claim they haven't given up on states. Not really surprised there'd be some conflicting reports over this.
October 21, 2008 10:58 AM | Reply | Permalink
WHOA! Frontline ad!
October 21, 2008 10:58 AM | Reply | Permalink
Its like being enshrouded in a giant pumpkin...
October 21, 2008 11:10 AM | Reply | Permalink
Talk about weird and annoying. Freaking whole screen suddenly turned orange.
October 21, 2008 11:10 AM | Reply | Permalink
Thanks. I thought it was just me. Very weird feeling.
October 21, 2008 11:12 AM | Reply | Permalink
I succeeded in filtering it out.
October 21, 2008 11:16 AM | Reply | Permalink
Yeesh. All of a sudden TPM makes with the ads! For a second I thought I'd logged onto MySpace or the IMDb (Internet Movie Database) by accident.
October 21, 2008 12:55 PM | Reply | Permalink
OT - but if these aren't 5 of the most beautiful words ever:
Mitch McConnell is in trouble.
October 21, 2008 10:59 AM | Reply | Permalink
Word! Brings new meaning to the word 'asshole.'
October 21, 2008 11:12 AM | Reply | Permalink
As a native Kentuckian, they're certainly music to my ears.
October 21, 2008 12:09 PM | Reply | Permalink
Um, they'd (the McCain campaign) better get on the stick in Indiana, if that new PPP poll is at all accurate.
October 21, 2008 10:59 AM | Reply | Permalink
Obama +2 in Indiana. Statistically insignificant but means McCain will have dump resources here in Indiana (as opposed to states like CO). Indiana is coming down to who can GOTV best and that's going to take a lot of resources.
October 21, 2008 11:07 AM | Reply | Permalink
Is that like hearing the dog that didn't bark in the night?
October 21, 2008 11:03 AM | Reply | Permalink
Good one!
October 21, 2008 11:06 AM | Reply | Permalink
LOL!
Agreed.
But Greg just put it badly - you can tell when the ads start slacking off -
October 21, 2008 11:06 AM | Reply | Permalink
I'll take your word for it. (Actually, it does make sense.) I live in CA, so the only ads I see/hear are for state and local propositions.
Not sure if I should feel jealous or privileged about that!
October 21, 2008 11:45 AM | Reply | Permalink
Ads are down in WI, but not completely gone. At least the most egregious ones I can recall, like that horribly-narrated one: "How dishonorable" like John McCain's mother was condescending Barack. Made my skin crawl.
Anyway, phone banking for the campaign last night and things have definitely gone Barack's way in the last three weeks here in NE WI. I wouldn't say he'll win the day in this quite conservative area, but progress is there for certain.
October 21, 2008 12:47 PM | Reply | Permalink
Cool. Thanks for the phone calling. Go get 'em!
October 21, 2008 1:10 PM | Reply | Permalink
Sorry -- really O/T, but this article about Obama taking time out to rush home for Malia's soccer game will give you a feel-good moment.
http://open.salon.com/content.php?cid=31197
October 21, 2008 11:04 AM | Reply | Permalink
Many thanks for that.
October 21, 2008 11:20 AM | Reply | Permalink
Thanks for the link, I sent the piece to all my like minded friends. I have to admit it brought tears to my eyes,
You want know who the real Barak Obama is?
Read this article.
October 21, 2008 11:39 AM | Reply | Permalink
Not to belabor the obvious, but when you're having this discussion at all on October 21...
Heh.
October 21, 2008 11:06 AM | Reply | Permalink
Heh indeed. I love the look of sheer terror on the wingnut faces at work.
I laugh and laugh and laugh.
October 21, 2008 1:36 PM | Reply | Permalink
They have to disclaim this strategy because of what happened in Michigan. A couple of weeks ago they gave up on Michigan, and the result has been a very pissed off state GOP. The chances of a couple of GOP Congressmen here (Walberg and Knollenberg) are also now in the toilet.
October 21, 2008 11:08 AM | Reply | Permalink
Iowa and N.M., I believe. They are "gone."
But without Colorado, there is path to victory for McCain without a Kerry state pickup. And he's not close to that anywhere. In other words, I think they'd be crazy to give up on Colorado, no matter how bad things look for them, because that means they're just giving up, period.
October 21, 2008 11:11 AM | Reply | Permalink
Sorry, I meant of course, there is no path to victory for McSame without Colorado.
October 21, 2008 11:13 AM | Reply | Permalink
If Obama wants to lock down Colorado, he'd release an ad hitting McCain for his Water Compact comment. I really don't know why he hasn't.
October 21, 2008 11:16 AM | Reply | Permalink
Saw one last night.
October 21, 2008 12:54 PM | Reply | Permalink
League of Conservation Voters has an ad in Colorado about this. Check it out here:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TtJjefIjLxo
October 21, 2008 1:48 PM | Reply | Permalink
They have totally given up on those three states...
However, there is NO way theey can admit they are scrapping Iowa, Colorado, and New Mexico.
I think they know this thing is over, but they have to give the appearance they are competing in order to not destroy their down-ticketraces. What republicans would come out and vote if they knew that McCain's electoral college plan was to give up on Michigan, Minnesota, Iowa, New Mexico, and Colorado with the hopes to swipe Pennsylvania (where Obama is polling 10 to 12 points ahead at this point)? I can just see Republicans on election day....
"McCain doesn't even think he's in this thing. Why should I even bother voting?"
It's ALLLLLLLL talk and no action from McCain and the RNC. They have thrown NM, IA, and CO under the bus in desperation. Ignore the man talking behind the curtain....because reality is reality.
October 21, 2008 11:15 AM | Reply | Permalink
Whoops, now that I have posted a much wordier post below, I see that you already said the same thing in a much more efficient fashion. Suffice it to say, I find this line of thinking quite plausible.
October 21, 2008 11:30 AM | Reply | Permalink
Um Greg - did y'all sell TPM to Frontline? I think it just managed a hostile takeover, if you didn't.
;)
October 21, 2008 11:15 AM | Reply | Permalink
I'm a big Frontline fan, but... day-amn. Big problem is that for what ever reason the white div backgrounds on Josh's site often don't load right away--always been that way--so you get this huge orange ad with the text unreadable for a few seconds before the CSS finally finishes loading. U-u-u-u-u-gly! Hope they paid TPM a pile for this. Hope it's not going to be a regular feature.
Ow.
October 21, 2008 11:21 AM | Reply | Permalink
And AdBlock Pro isn't blocking it, for some reason. It "sees" it and adds a filter for it but doesn't make it go away.
I'm kinda getting used to it, though.
October 21, 2008 11:27 AM | Reply | Permalink
Makes me hungry for orange juice.
October 21, 2008 11:59 AM | Reply | Permalink
They cede NOTHING! McCain has Obama right where he wants him! The polls don't matter! Joe the Plumer matters! The media and feminists hate Sarah! ACORN will steal this election! Whine, bitch, piss and moan!
October 21, 2008 11:18 AM | Reply | Permalink
Yes, the guy needs to Flame out. And he will...
October 21, 2008 11:19 AM | Reply | Permalink
They don't run from history, they make it!
Yep, in two short weeks, they will definitely be history.
October 21, 2008 11:24 AM | Reply | Permalink
Don't forget the latest October Surprise: David Brooks at the NYT has cued up PATIO MAN as part of their every-guy tag team of imaginary super hero's! LOL
October 21, 2008 11:40 AM | Reply | Permalink
OT, but I have to ask...
Josh has a post on the front page that reads thusly:
I can track most of it - but where's the 'homo' part coming from? Some new smear that I missed somehow?
October 21, 2008 11:18 AM | Reply | Permalink
They ran that innuendo by everybody during the primary. They said he bowls like a girl and went from there.
And then there was another little homo innuendo running around for awhile - trolls were posting on it.
October 21, 2008 11:21 AM | Reply | Permalink
One of my pet peeves is narrow minded assholes calling people gay to smear them. Of course in my mind it's actually a compliment but that's another conversation entirely. Calling someone a fag is something _entirely_ different. That is a slur. But calling a gay man gay as a term of derision is meaningless. Calling a (known to be) straight man gay as a term of derision is sort of like calling a woman a girl to insult her. Everyone (with a brain) just kind of looks at you like you're an idiot.
Gay ain't nuthin' but a lifestyle honey!
-- Queers For Obama!
(and their tuxedo cats too!)
October 21, 2008 11:45 AM | Reply | Permalink
I wondered the same thing... (maybe for snark?)
October 21, 2008 11:21 AM | Reply | Permalink
You do not get much further from being a homosexual than Barack Obama -
It's like calling Bill Clinton gay - you know he's not. You know Obama isn't - you just know; come on. You know when someone is and when someone isn't - most of the time anyway. Obama is a very sexy masculine guy who has well-developed feminine sensibilities that cause him to be empathetic and compassionate.
And he walks like a big cat.
God I envy Michelle.
October 21, 2008 11:25 AM | Reply | Permalink
All liberals are "gay" to Republicans.
October 21, 2008 11:23 AM | Reply | Permalink
It's called Projection! Like a fucking octo-plex!
The Repug Party is the party of deviants.
Let's face it - that party is jam-packed with deviants - self-hating homosexuals and guys who are into public bathroom sex - Jeez fucking Louise = that is the biggest Projection the Repugs are guilty of.
October 21, 2008 11:32 AM | Reply | Permalink
There was a story about Obama's "Mystery Man" over at Politico that Republican supporters are now suggesting is Obama's "down low" gay lover.
Here is the Politico story - http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1008/14713.html
October 21, 2008 12:03 PM | Reply | Permalink
McLame, don't be a half-ass. Just go ahead and cede the election!
October 21, 2008 11:19 AM | Reply | Permalink
Obviously the McCain camp does not make me privy to their internal discussions, so I do not know anything more than anyone else here. That said, I rather wonder if both the stories last night and the pushback against them this morning are not part of the McCain strategy, or more accurately the RNC strategy.
It might well be that the RNC and McCain have looked at the numbers and decided that there is no way (barring an unpredictable stroke of luck) that they can win. More to the point, however, their numbers might also show that their voting base has concluded the same (i.e. that McCain cannot win) and have grown despondent and resigned. As a result, races (such as Shaddegg's in AZ or Bachmann's in MN) which had once been considered safe are now shifting into the toss-up category, because folks who support these candidates are increasingly telling pollsters that they simply plan to sit on their hands on Nov 4 and wallow in disgust.
From the RNC's perspective, losing the White House to Obama is bad enough, but losing massively in the house, senate and governors' mansions is even worse, so they need to re-energize those despondent base voters. They reason that, because it is McCain's failures which are making them despondent, the quickest way to reverse this trend is to create the perception that McCain is turning things around. Therefore, they need to make it look like McCain has some secret information that leads him to believe that he has a better chance than conventional wisdom would lead one to believe.
They do not actually have to make it such that McCain can win; they need merely to make it look like McCain believes he can win. Then they can rally the troops by saying "we can win this, but only if you join us." This approach will not actually get McCain any closer to winning the states he needs, but it will turn out enough otherwise-despondent base voters to ensure that once-safe races move back into the "safe" category and close downticket races tip Republican.
In other words, it might well be that none of this is really about McCain. If it looks like McCain is tilting at windmills here, that might well be because he is. "We're pulling out of Colorado to concentrate on Pennsylvania" might well be a losing strategy, but if it can be made to appear as if it is a strategy built on a surprising internal poll finding, then it might be enough to rescue drowning downticket races, and that might be all that this is really about.
October 21, 2008 11:26 AM | Reply | Permalink
I don't really understand how reports of giving up on CO, MN and IA, which are then denied the next day, would succeed in rallying the troops.
October 21, 2008 11:29 AM | Reply | Permalink
Or, are you saying, their denial is the "strategic" part to rally the troops?
October 21, 2008 11:32 AM | Reply | Permalink
You can decide for yourself whether I am being clever here or mere second-guessing common-sense, but I actually think that both the denial and the rumor itself are part of the strategy. So long as it is phrased as "we have reason to believe (that the public polls have not yet detected) that concentrating on Pennsylvania is a winning strategy," the Republican base voter (remember, this is all targetted at this very specific demographic) can be left with the impression "they know something that I do not." This might sound rather unpersuasive, but remember that Conrad Burns ran against John Tester on the platform that Bush had a secret plan to win in Iraq and while this was not enough to win Montana overall, it was wildly popular with the Republican base; in other words, Republican base voters are disproportionately likely to play along with a father-knows-best approach to campaign strategy.
Meanwhile, the very next day, the campaign can then turn around and announce "we are not giving up in these patriotic, God-loving red states! we have not yet begun to fight." The end result is that the Republican base voter is left first with the impression that there is an element of secret knowledge informing broader Republican strategy, and then next with an explicit call to fight to the last. As I said above, I doubt that this is enough to actually win any of these states, but it might be enough to keep a depressed base from turning a certain defeat into a disasterous and unprecedented rout.
October 21, 2008 12:12 PM | Reply | Permalink
I can buy most of this, Missouri, and I'll tell you why - something changed that caused McLame to answer the question in an interview - what he would do if he lost. And he didn't say: "I'm not going to lose." He said: "Don't feel sorry for me."
Which tells me he knows he's going to lose or he wouldn't have admitted it.
October 21, 2008 11:38 AM | Reply | Permalink
Very interesting. And despondence among repugs would explain the drop in support for McConnell here.
October 21, 2008 12:04 PM | Reply | Permalink
Gotta love liz mair update. "Barack Obama" ain't assuming nothin' honey. BTW, he is Senator Barack Obama for you bitch.
October 21, 2008 11:42 AM | Reply | Permalink
As a raging homosexual...I can confirm that Barack Obama sets off absolutely NONE of my finely tuned gaydar bells. He drips of heterosexuality.
Todd Palin, however.... with that goatee and dapper sense of northwestern style gives me pause. He's just a bit too GROOMED to be a straight Alaskan.
Perhaps that's why Sarah has all that wonderful "tolerance".
Brokeback Igloo, anyone?
October 21, 2008 11:43 AM | Reply | Permalink
LOL - o yeah.
That one sets off the gaydar for real. All that huntin and fishin and sno-mobilin and that being bossed around by Mommy -
October 21, 2008 11:47 AM | Reply | Permalink
Next up for America - a gay president. I'd love to see Barney Frank in the White House - smartest guy in our party, just about.
I really believe in 10 years, homosexuality will be a non-issue.
I believe equal protection for same sex unions is going to finally be recognized in almost all the states and I think people will quit talking about it like the religious right has been talking about it for the last umptynine million years - no one will be listening.
Y'all are mainstreamed, just about. I hate to put it like this, but the minute Will & Grace made primetime, I knew y'all were mainstreamed.
;)
Now I want NY to recognize gay marriage so my nephew and his partner can have a legal marriage in addition to the actual church wedding they had there.
October 21, 2008 11:51 AM | Reply | Permalink
Yeah! What she said!
My partner and I are holding off on wedding plans until it's legal _everywhere_. After 13 years together we can wait another couple decades I guess *sigh*.
October 21, 2008 12:02 PM | Reply | Permalink
Really don't think you'll have to wait that long. Even here in Kentucky, cries of "homo!" tend to receive eye-rolls and sighs.
I think the homophobes got tired of answering the question "Why do you care?" and looking like the closet cases they are.
October 21, 2008 12:12 PM | Reply | Permalink
My husband and I are flying to San Diego this weekend for the wedding of two of our dearest friends. They've also been together for around 13 years now and had been, like you, waiting for it to be legal everywhere, but decided to go for it before Prop 8 has a chance to pass. I have to say, I don't think I was this excited about my own wedding as I am about theirs!
And sooner (I hope) rather than later there's going to be a gay president. UT has two--count 'em!--openly gay members of our legislature. If it can happen here. . .
October 21, 2008 12:14 PM | Reply | Permalink
Dallas County has an openly lesbian Hispanic Democratic county sheriff.
In fact, depending on whose survey you believe, Dallas, Texas, is either the 2d or 3d most gay-friendly city in America.
I love that about us - nobody seems to have caught on - though why that is I don't know. We have a huge active out gay community. We're the home of the world-renowned Turtle Creek Chorale.
October 21, 2008 12:19 PM | Reply | Permalink
And I think you'll get there and I hope so with all my heart.
It isn't right and it isn't constitutional to pretend that equal protection does not extend to all our citizens. It does - the constitution doesn't have exemptions in the equal protection clause.
October 21, 2008 12:14 PM | Reply | Permalink
I knew there was something about him! I think you've got him pegged!
October 21, 2008 12:07 PM | Reply | Permalink
I can't speak for those states, but Obama has been running lots of ads in the Chicago market (reaches into NW Indiana). Bupkis from McCain.
October 21, 2008 11:51 AM | Reply | Permalink
OT- with all the polls watchng, what will be the effect of actually having Barr and Nader on the ballots?
I see pollster, RCP and all the rest have Obama up by 5-7. But I checked for the first time RCP's spread where Barr and Nader are included and it's a good two points higher.
I guess I'm wondering if McCain camp thinks that the spread isn't 5-6, but more like 7-9.
October 21, 2008 12:06 PM | Reply | Permalink
Nader is not going to pull any Obama supporters - not this year. However Nader and especially Barr could shave off a small portion of McCain support.
October 21, 2008 12:17 PM | Reply | Permalink
Even if they didn't pull out, the CNN story that they did and the fact that they have to defend saying they're not is going to do damage in those States.
I think it's a case of the Campaign wanting to pull out (or at least draw down) without a big announcement (like what happened when they pulled out of Michigan), but it was leaked to CNN who ran with it.
Now they either have to keep spending money there because folks will be watching closer and any drop in ad buys will be seen as proof that they are giving up.
At this stage of the campaign, candidates do usually start narrowing their scope.
October 21, 2008 12:11 PM | Reply | Permalink
So now their strategy is to hold the Bush I states minus Iowa and Colorado and flip Pennsylvania?
Forget for a minute that they're way behind in Virginia. Forget that they're losing in Florida and North Carolina. Forget that Indiana is slipping out of reach and they're not doing a thing to stop it.
Anyone who can look at this and suggest that they have a shot a Pennsylvania is either suffering from a serious visual or perceptual deficit of some kind, is a pathological liar or the greatest deadpan comedian in history.
I mean, "our path to victory involves flipping Pennsylvania?" That's just sad. Or, it would be sad, if I didn't hate them with every fiber of my being. That makes it funny.
October 21, 2008 12:24 PM | Reply | Permalink
Meaningless bravado:
"RNC efforts are ongoing in these states, and Barack Obama would assume otherwise at his own peril."
If they were serious about those states, they wouldn't be telegraphing such warnings to Obama.
October 21, 2008 12:50 PM | Reply | Permalink
Precisely. What else would Liz Mair do, go on the record saying that they're ready to throw in the towel in those states?
Sure the McCrabby campaign is dumb (for the most part), but they're not that dumb.
October 21, 2008 12:59 PM | Reply | Permalink