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Polls Show Obama Way Up In Two Key Swing States

A new set of polls out today shows Barack Obama with enormous leads in two of the most contested swing states this election:

In Virginia, SurveyUSA has Obama up 53%-43%, up from a 51%-45% Obama lead two weeks ago. The key internal number: McCain now has only a 52%-43% lead among white voters, while Obama is up 86%-13% among blacks. Also, the new Suffolk poll puts Obama ahead 51%-39%.

In New Hampshire, SurveyUSA gives Obama a 53%-40% lead. This is consistent with other recent polls from Rasmussen and St. Anselm, showing this former Republican stronghold slipping away for McCain.

Both of these states have been Republican areas until just recently -- Virginia hasn't gone Dem since the 1964 LBJ landslide, and New Hampshire only voted narrowly for Kerry in 2004 after having voted for Bush in 2000.


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It's become an auto accident, and we can't look away from the wreck that is McCain.

(Ok, too much reading opinion pieces, but I like the overblown analogy, ok?)

A must-read.

That's a great article that I've referred to many people.

read a rolling stone thing the other night from just after obama beat Hillary and they were at his event somewhere and asked people why they did not like obama one that stuck with me was this

well he is not one of us is he

you can all guess what she means and its not that he is not a republican

also one said if he believes the rev wright stuff they would send him back to Africa

shows what they are really like

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Who wants to look away? I want to watch it in slow motion. Savor every moment. In 3-D.

I'm pretty sure Obama is going to do better then 86% with the black vote as well. Anyone know the lowest percentage of the black vote he received in the primary? My recollection is that he was doing around 90% or higher in many states.

Yeah exit polls showed him at 90% in the Virginia primary.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/23123924/

I bet his support with black voters has not fallen since then. If anything its likely increased (along with the number of eligible black voters due to new voter registrations.)

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Gore got 90% of the black vote in 2000. Obama will get a higher percentage. Plus it will be a very big increase in AA voter turnout.

I disagree, O has been getting about 85% of AA in Virginia in EVERY POLL ALL YEAR LONG.

we must worry and work to make sure they are allowed to vote. The Repug's are working hard to scare and intimidate, not only blacks but college kids that are wanting to vote for Obama.

When your samples contains 600 or people, as SUSA's samples usually do, you're going to get a lot more static down in the subgroup numbers. Four or five conservative Republicans (or just some folks screwing with the pollster's head) have a lot more impact than they do in the over all number.

Love it!!!

John McDisdain will flip out Tuesday night. He'll be burn himself down. Viewer discretion advised.

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In deed.

[can I just take a second here and enjoy the schadenfreude that New England isn't so goddamn liberal after all? I've taken no end of abuse from east coast liberals who have for the most part never set foot in the south or west and love to talk about those places just the same as if we are all inbred racist shmucks.]

I'm damn glad New Hampshire is getting righteous for a change.

Tena:
McCain can't distinguish "schadenfreude" from William Shatner.

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Well that of course is true.

I hope Obama makes Texas and Georgia high priorities if and when he runs for reelection. I'd love nothing more than for us to makes Texas a swing state.

On that note, as a resident of the state, perhaps you can tell me what's going on with his campaign there. I know it was never a top target, but did he pull all of his staff out?

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Me too.

I mean, if they'd ever just spend a little time and money in Texas - I swear to go we are dying to turn blue - we just need a little push.

Word.

I can understand your frustration. I think that we should have made a more aggressive push there as well. All I can say is that hopefully Obama's people have already put "Georgia & Texas" at the top of their we're-gunning-for-'em-in-2012 list.

I was at an Obama fundraiser in Newton, MA last night. From the tone of the speeches (including one from Barney Frank), it looks like NH is going to be inundated by liberals from MA and VT. No one was encouraged to canvass anywhere in MA, even in the western, more conservative part of the state.

Trust me, New England is pretty damn liberal. Barack hasn't spent a dime in CT, VT, MA or RI, and he will win each by double digits. NH is an outlier where everyone cares first and foremost about their taxes, and represents only 4 of New England's 34 electoral votes. People up there take the state motto, "live free or die" to mean that they don't have to pay taxes. Even with that motivating force, Barack will win NH going away.

I see what you are saying, but really, New England is Obama country.

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Hey, I'm with you, Tena.

I'm sick and tired of Northeast liberals who like to lecture me about the politics of Mississippi when they've a) never bothered to learn about them and b) are completely unaware or are ignoring the racism that exists right here in the wonderful non-racial Northeast.

Tena, I've said it before, easy on the 'shire there. NH is a very libertarian state (as reflected in our motto), so for a long time, it was practically bound to trend Red, but with a much greater potential to go blue than most red states, as libertarian have as much in common with Dems as they do the GOP. When the GOP has been taken over by freedom-hating neoccons, as it has now, NH and other libertarians will vote democratic. Thus, the Bush years have pushed NH Blue. Unfortunately, a few years of Dem government spending will likely push NH back, as a function of the aspects of the left that rub libertarians the wrong way. States like NH will not hold long-term trends and are more likely to yo-yo between the left and right, generally depending on who is in power.

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Hey Tena,

I come here just to read your comments.
I especially enjoyed this one.

I am from Maryland, close enough to the North, and my smugness ended when I saw this photo (the year I graduated from college).

http://www.usnews.com/articles/news/national/2008/04/04/a-flag-a-busing-fight-and-a-famous-photograph.html

One need only consider that John Edwards outpolled EVERY republican candidate by 10-12 points before he dropped out to see how much racism/gender bias mitigates the disgust at the Bush administration.

We arent there yet. And idiots are location independent. We just have to remind the intelligentsia of that form time to time.

Stay well.

Mark

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New England is Liberal -- and that generally includes the Republicans: check out Chafee of RI. And check out the two Republican SC justices from New England.

Then again, New England Republicans tend to have roots in the Original Thirteen, therefore know what the Founders/Framers and their Constitution were about, unlike the baby states -- so many of which latter falsely believe they can tell the Original Thirteen how it's 'sposed to be, without bothering first to read the Constitution and remembering to give it due supremacy over Hollywood's cowboy fictions.

I think you're right. We may very well see McCain go supernova on us tomorrow night.

Yep, if Barack will confront him on the "dishonest and dishonorable" campaign McCain is running, John will ignite.

"Look me in the eye and say it to my face, John."

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They probably should pat McCain down before the debate, just in case....

"The truth?! The truth?! You can't handle the truth?!!"

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It would be great to have a Col. Jessup moment, but I suspect we will again have to settle for McCain's jaw muscles bulging as he grinds his teeth.

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Normally I'd say, Expect McLame to have been very strongly coached as to his mien and eye-contact and any other failings perceived from last time. No more angry, crabbed old man, John! But that's awfully hard to reconcile with the Attack! Attack! Attack! strategy they've shifted to. They're kind of in a bind there: if they really believe going for the jugular is their only hope, then they have to go for it. But that's only going to put them in the position of repeating what didn't work--what actually worked against them--last time. If I had to lay odds I'd give a slight edge to them going with trying to make John seem more compassionate, human, benevolent etc. and let the ads do the nasty for 'em, rather than ramping up Mr Angry Geezer x10. But it's gotta be a hard call.

I think BHO's best bet is to do exactly what he did in the first debate. To come off as tolerant and expansive and not at all angry about McCain's slide into sleaze. Just par for the course and really just beneath notice for a guy who's going to be our next president, kinda like the way you'd pretend not to notice if he kept loudly farting at a formal dinner. I think this shoulder-brush approach is WAY more effective for him than direct confrontation. Somewhere in there a bit of stern reproach, yes, but the dominant mood should be amused tolerance, as in "Come on, John, we both know this is beneath you." Probably be far more infuriating to McCain than any hitting back with Keating 5 crap of his own.

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I think that will be very tough for McCain. He really really resents this young upstart taking the office he feels entitled to. I think a lot of McCain's problems in this election have stemmed from the fact that he hates most of the people he has to work with, including Republicans (which knocked a lot of the best VP choices off his list.) He's willing to change his position or lie about any issue to improve his chances in an election, but he can't change his feelings about people he personally detests, and he's not good at hiding them.

Very exciting!

Wow. Just friggin' wow.

At this point Obama may be immune from the kind of crap the McCain camp will be spewing for the next 4 weeks.

And that will be Johnny boy's legacy.

Angry. Hateful. Dishonorable.

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VA-Pres, Oct 6, SurveyUSA: Obama (D) 53%, McCain (R) 43%

Damn.  Just can't crack that 54% barrier.  Why is it taking him so long to seal the deal???

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David Gregory? Is that you?

Tee hee hee

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man, I'll never be happy until I hear the actual election results. New Hampshire in the primaries has forever scarred me. Damn TPM Election Central for tempting my hopes so much!

When it's over and McCain makes his concession speech, what will he say? He ran his campaign with honor?

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What concession speech?

I'll believe that one when I hear the speech.

Obama will win but McLame will never concede.

Bingo! Since when has a Repub conceded, admitted when they were wrong or taken responsibility?

Meanwhile, my 85-year old mother worked the phones at the Obama campaign office in Northern Virginia last evening. :-)

That's not purple anymore; that's all out blue.

Maybe I am the proverbial fool rushing in where angels fear to tread, but I would like to take a moment here to remember all of those comments during the primaries to the effect of "anyone who thinks that Obama is going to win those red states in the GE is delusional." I think that the coming electoral college landslide is going to prove that it was not such a crazy gamble to aim for more than the old fashioned 50%+1 approach to the electoral college strategy.

(TPM has evidently purged the comments section in the archives from that season so it is impossible to link to quotes, but I think you can all remember the sorts of remarks to which I refer.)

now i know why mccain is bring up ayers n wright because things are looking bad.... i guess the vp debate didn't help mccain...........

Yup, it's a safe bet their internal polling looked as bad as these public polls, so it was time for Hail Mary the Nth.

I personally am glad they're going down in flames rather than honorably. First, it may give Rovian tactics a bad rep for a couple of election cycles. Second, McCain has always been a complete and utter shit, but most people didn't know it. Now he's broadcasting it for all to see (with a little help from his friends at Rolling Stone!). I would not advise him to run for re-election in Arizona, unless he wants another public humiliation.

I think the spirits of Jefferson, Madison, and Lee have something to to with the uptick in the Old Dominion.

Bless you, sweetie. (Sniff!)

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And George Mason, father of the Bill of Rights!

Those numbers from Virginia have to send a shiver down the spine of the McCain campaign. All it takes is Iowa, where McCain has never held a lead, and New Mexico, where he has only held two small leads since June, and Virginia, where Obama is now leading by double digits, and Obama is the next president.

Does anyone know if these numbers reflect McCain's brother's comments about Northern Virginia being "Communist country"? If not, might they even be a point or two worse?

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New Mexico is going to vote for Obama - I'm just sure of it.

In the first place, this is the 3d poorest state in the country. In the north here, tourism and second home owners are the basis of the economy - art galleries. That's the first thing that goes under in a recession because it's pure luxury. People are very nervous about the economy.

I was going to have tuna salad and a Diet Coke for lunch but I'll take these numbers instead!

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I know a lot of people are working very hard here in Virginia to turn this momentum into a landslide! Keep up the great work everyone and I'll probably see you all going door to door this weekend here in "communist country"!

Yup. I've been out canvassing already and I'm making tons of calls. Will be canvassing the last 3-4 days before the election as well.

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Tax Profs Agree: Gov. Palin's Tax Returns Are Wrong

Jack Bogdanski (Lewis & Clark) & Bryan Camp (Texas Tech) have independently reviewed the tax issues raised by the release of Gov. Palin's 2006 and 2007 tax returns and financial disclosure form, as well as the remarkable opinion letter issued from Washington D.C. tax lawyer Roger M. Olsen. Jack and Bryan conclude that there are serious errors in Gov. Palin's returns as filed and that she and her husband owe tens of thousands of dollars in additional taxes.
Jack Bogdanski, There's No Debate: Palins Owe Thousands in Back Taxes:
There is no serious debate (at least, none that has been brought to our attention) about the fact that at least the amounts paid for the children's travel -- $24,728.83 in 2007, according to the Washington Post -- are taxable. The campaign's tax lawyer has got at least that much of the law, and perhaps more, wrong. ... The Palins, who had their tax returns done by HR Block, simply got it wrong. And the fact that the state payroll office got it wrong, too, doesn't erase the Palins' unpaid tax liability.

http://taxprof.typepad.com/taxprof_blog/2008/10/tax-profs-agree.html

Josh has the link up on the front page. I decided to post this much of the article. I just love it so!



Do you know if the latest polls would include early voting?

Any takers?

Tyler, forget the diet coke and go for a Vernor's instead,,,,, this calls for a celebration!

Tena, OK on New Mexico,,,,, now can you deliver Texas like you primised back in the primaries??

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I might have been able to if the Democrats had paid any attention to the state. I dunno - we're way behind in the polls.

I keep holding out hope for the huge voter turnout and I think we'll see it and I believe it's closer than the polls suggest - I'd like to know who they're polling.

Noriega was ahead of Cornyn for awhile. But we've been ignored again. There was some support early and Noriega was doing great as a result.

I'm not happy that Texas has been written off again - it's damned short-sighted.