Polls Show Obama Way Up In Two Key Swing States
A new set of polls out today shows Barack Obama with enormous leads in two of the most contested swing states this election:
• In Virginia, SurveyUSA has Obama up 53%-43%, up from a 51%-45% Obama lead two weeks ago. The key internal number: McCain now has only a 52%-43% lead among white voters, while Obama is up 86%-13% among blacks. Also, the new Suffolk poll puts Obama ahead 51%-39%.
• In New Hampshire, SurveyUSA gives Obama a 53%-40% lead. This is consistent with other recent polls from Rasmussen and St. Anselm, showing this former Republican stronghold slipping away for McCain.
Both of these states have been Republican areas until just recently -- Virginia hasn't gone Dem since the 1964 LBJ landslide, and New Hampshire only voted narrowly for Kerry in 2004 after having voted for Bush in 2000.
It's become an auto accident, and we can't look away from the wreck that is McCain.
(Ok, too much reading opinion pieces, but I like the overblown analogy, ok?)
October 6, 2008 12:50 PM | Reply | Permalink
also, http://www.rollingstone.com/news/coverstory/make_believe_maverick_the_real_john_mccain
October 6, 2008 1:07 PM | Reply | Permalink
A must-read.
October 6, 2008 1:15 PM | Reply | Permalink
That's a great article that I've referred to many people.
October 6, 2008 8:24 PM | Reply | Permalink
read a rolling stone thing the other night from just after obama beat Hillary and they were at his event somewhere and asked people why they did not like obama one that stuck with me was this
well he is not one of us is he
you can all guess what she means and its not that he is not a republican
also one said if he believes the rev wright stuff they would send him back to Africa
shows what they are really like
October 6, 2008 8:26 PM | Reply | Permalink
Who wants to look away? I want to watch it in slow motion. Savor every moment. In 3-D.
October 6, 2008 1:11 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'm pretty sure Obama is going to do better then 86% with the black vote as well. Anyone know the lowest percentage of the black vote he received in the primary? My recollection is that he was doing around 90% or higher in many states.
October 6, 2008 12:50 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yeah exit polls showed him at 90% in the Virginia primary.
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/23123924/
I bet his support with black voters has not fallen since then. If anything its likely increased (along with the number of eligible black voters due to new voter registrations.)
October 6, 2008 12:53 PM | Reply | Permalink
Gore got 90% of the black vote in 2000. Obama will get a higher percentage. Plus it will be a very big increase in AA voter turnout.
October 6, 2008 1:07 PM | Reply | Permalink
I disagree, O has been getting about 85% of AA in Virginia in EVERY POLL ALL YEAR LONG.
October 6, 2008 2:21 PM | Reply | Permalink
we must worry and work to make sure they are allowed to vote. The Repug's are working hard to scare and intimidate, not only blacks but college kids that are wanting to vote for Obama.
October 6, 2008 1:19 PM | Reply | Permalink
When your samples contains 600 or people, as SUSA's samples usually do, you're going to get a lot more static down in the subgroup numbers. Four or five conservative Republicans (or just some folks screwing with the pollster's head) have a lot more impact than they do in the over all number.
October 6, 2008 1:35 PM | Reply | Permalink
Love it!!!
John McDisdain will flip out Tuesday night. He'll be burn himself down. Viewer discretion advised.
October 6, 2008 12:50 PM | Reply | Permalink
In deed.
[can I just take a second here and enjoy the schadenfreude that New England isn't so goddamn liberal after all? I've taken no end of abuse from east coast liberals who have for the most part never set foot in the south or west and love to talk about those places just the same as if we are all inbred racist shmucks.]
I'm damn glad New Hampshire is getting righteous for a change.
October 6, 2008 12:57 PM | Reply | Permalink
Tena:
McCain can't distinguish "schadenfreude" from William Shatner.
October 6, 2008 12:59 PM | Reply | Permalink
Well that of course is true.
October 6, 2008 1:01 PM | Reply | Permalink
I hope Obama makes Texas and Georgia high priorities if and when he runs for reelection. I'd love nothing more than for us to makes Texas a swing state.
On that note, as a resident of the state, perhaps you can tell me what's going on with his campaign there. I know it was never a top target, but did he pull all of his staff out?
October 6, 2008 1:03 PM | Reply | Permalink
Me too.
I mean, if they'd ever just spend a little time and money in Texas - I swear to go we are dying to turn blue - we just need a little push.
October 6, 2008 1:06 PM | Reply | Permalink
Word.
October 6, 2008 1:36 PM | Reply | Permalink
I can understand your frustration. I think that we should have made a more aggressive push there as well. All I can say is that hopefully Obama's people have already put "Georgia & Texas" at the top of their we're-gunning-for-'em-in-2012 list.
October 6, 2008 1:45 PM | Reply | Permalink
I was at an Obama fundraiser in Newton, MA last night. From the tone of the speeches (including one from Barney Frank), it looks like NH is going to be inundated by liberals from MA and VT. No one was encouraged to canvass anywhere in MA, even in the western, more conservative part of the state.
October 6, 2008 1:18 PM | Reply | Permalink
Trust me, New England is pretty damn liberal. Barack hasn't spent a dime in CT, VT, MA or RI, and he will win each by double digits. NH is an outlier where everyone cares first and foremost about their taxes, and represents only 4 of New England's 34 electoral votes. People up there take the state motto, "live free or die" to mean that they don't have to pay taxes. Even with that motivating force, Barack will win NH going away.
I see what you are saying, but really, New England is Obama country.
October 6, 2008 1:40 PM | Reply | Permalink
Hey, I'm with you, Tena.
I'm sick and tired of Northeast liberals who like to lecture me about the politics of Mississippi when they've a) never bothered to learn about them and b) are completely unaware or are ignoring the racism that exists right here in the wonderful non-racial Northeast.
October 6, 2008 2:00 PM | Reply | Permalink
Tena, I've said it before, easy on the 'shire there. NH is a very libertarian state (as reflected in our motto), so for a long time, it was practically bound to trend Red, but with a much greater potential to go blue than most red states, as libertarian have as much in common with Dems as they do the GOP. When the GOP has been taken over by freedom-hating neoccons, as it has now, NH and other libertarians will vote democratic. Thus, the Bush years have pushed NH Blue. Unfortunately, a few years of Dem government spending will likely push NH back, as a function of the aspects of the left that rub libertarians the wrong way. States like NH will not hold long-term trends and are more likely to yo-yo between the left and right, generally depending on who is in power.
October 6, 2008 2:46 PM | Reply | Permalink
Hey Tena,
I come here just to read your comments.
I especially enjoyed this one.
I am from Maryland, close enough to the North, and my smugness ended when I saw this photo (the year I graduated from college).
http://www.usnews.com/articles/news/national/2008/04/04/a-flag-a-busing-fight-and-a-famous-photograph.html
One need only consider that John Edwards outpolled EVERY republican candidate by 10-12 points before he dropped out to see how much racism/gender bias mitigates the disgust at the Bush administration.
We arent there yet. And idiots are location independent. We just have to remind the intelligentsia of that form time to time.
Stay well.
Mark
October 6, 2008 4:09 PM | Reply | Permalink
New England is Liberal -- and that generally includes the Republicans: check out Chafee of RI. And check out the two Republican SC justices from New England.
Then again, New England Republicans tend to have roots in the Original Thirteen, therefore know what the Founders/Framers and their Constitution were about, unlike the baby states -- so many of which latter falsely believe they can tell the Original Thirteen how it's 'sposed to be, without bothering first to read the Constitution and remembering to give it due supremacy over Hollywood's cowboy fictions.
October 6, 2008 6:07 PM | Reply | Permalink
I think you're right. We may very well see McCain go supernova on us tomorrow night.
October 6, 2008 1:03 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yep, if Barack will confront him on the "dishonest and dishonorable" campaign McCain is running, John will ignite.
"Look me in the eye and say it to my face, John."
October 6, 2008 1:28 PM | Reply | Permalink
They probably should pat McCain down before the debate, just in case....
October 6, 2008 1:40 PM | Reply | Permalink
"The truth?! The truth?! You can't handle the truth?!!"
October 6, 2008 1:37 PM | Reply | Permalink
It would be great to have a Col. Jessup moment, but I suspect we will again have to settle for McCain's jaw muscles bulging as he grinds his teeth.
October 6, 2008 2:23 PM | Reply | Permalink
Normally I'd say, Expect McLame to have been very strongly coached as to his mien and eye-contact and any other failings perceived from last time. No more angry, crabbed old man, John! But that's awfully hard to reconcile with the Attack! Attack! Attack! strategy they've shifted to. They're kind of in a bind there: if they really believe going for the jugular is their only hope, then they have to go for it. But that's only going to put them in the position of repeating what didn't work--what actually worked against them--last time. If I had to lay odds I'd give a slight edge to them going with trying to make John seem more compassionate, human, benevolent etc. and let the ads do the nasty for 'em, rather than ramping up Mr Angry Geezer x10. But it's gotta be a hard call.
I think BHO's best bet is to do exactly what he did in the first debate. To come off as tolerant and expansive and not at all angry about McCain's slide into sleaze. Just par for the course and really just beneath notice for a guy who's going to be our next president, kinda like the way you'd pretend not to notice if he kept loudly farting at a formal dinner. I think this shoulder-brush approach is WAY more effective for him than direct confrontation. Somewhere in there a bit of stern reproach, yes, but the dominant mood should be amused tolerance, as in "Come on, John, we both know this is beneath you." Probably be far more infuriating to McCain than any hitting back with Keating 5 crap of his own.
October 6, 2008 2:08 PM | Reply | Permalink
I think that will be very tough for McCain. He really really resents this young upstart taking the office he feels entitled to. I think a lot of McCain's problems in this election have stemmed from the fact that he hates most of the people he has to work with, including Republicans (which knocked a lot of the best VP choices off his list.) He's willing to change his position or lie about any issue to improve his chances in an election, but he can't change his feelings about people he personally detests, and he's not good at hiding them.
October 6, 2008 2:29 PM | Reply | Permalink
Very exciting!
October 6, 2008 12:51 PM | Reply | Permalink
Wow. Just friggin' wow.
At this point Obama may be immune from the kind of crap the McCain camp will be spewing for the next 4 weeks.
And that will be Johnny boy's legacy.
Angry. Hateful. Dishonorable.
October 6, 2008 12:52 PM | Reply | Permalink
Damn. Just can't crack that 54% barrier. Why is it taking him so long to seal the deal???
October 6, 2008 12:54 PM | Reply | Permalink
David Gregory? Is that you?
October 6, 2008 1:01 PM | Reply | Permalink
Tee hee hee
October 6, 2008 1:05 PM | Reply | Permalink
man, I'll never be happy until I hear the actual election results. New Hampshire in the primaries has forever scarred me. Damn TPM Election Central for tempting my hopes so much!
October 6, 2008 12:55 PM | Reply | Permalink
When it's over and McCain makes his concession speech, what will he say? He ran his campaign with honor?
October 6, 2008 12:58 PM | Reply | Permalink
What concession speech?
I'll believe that one when I hear the speech.
Obama will win but McLame will never concede.
October 6, 2008 1:22 PM | Reply | Permalink
Bingo! Since when has a Repub conceded, admitted when they were wrong or taken responsibility?
Meanwhile, my 85-year old mother worked the phones at the Obama campaign office in Northern Virginia last evening. :-)
October 6, 2008 4:26 PM | Reply | Permalink
That's not purple anymore; that's all out blue.
October 6, 2008 12:58 PM | Reply | Permalink
Maybe I am the proverbial fool rushing in where angels fear to tread, but I would like to take a moment here to remember all of those comments during the primaries to the effect of "anyone who thinks that Obama is going to win those red states in the GE is delusional." I think that the coming electoral college landslide is going to prove that it was not such a crazy gamble to aim for more than the old fashioned 50%+1 approach to the electoral college strategy.
(TPM has evidently purged the comments section in the archives from that season so it is impossible to link to quotes, but I think you can all remember the sorts of remarks to which I refer.)
October 6, 2008 1:35 PM | Reply | Permalink
now i know why mccain is bring up ayers n wright because things are looking bad.... i guess the vp debate didn't help mccain...........
October 6, 2008 12:58 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yup, it's a safe bet their internal polling looked as bad as these public polls, so it was time for Hail Mary the Nth.
I personally am glad they're going down in flames rather than honorably. First, it may give Rovian tactics a bad rep for a couple of election cycles. Second, McCain has always been a complete and utter shit, but most people didn't know it. Now he's broadcasting it for all to see (with a little help from his friends at Rolling Stone!). I would not advise him to run for re-election in Arizona, unless he wants another public humiliation.
October 6, 2008 1:03 PM | Reply | Permalink
I think the spirits of Jefferson, Madison, and Lee have something to to with the uptick in the Old Dominion.
October 6, 2008 12:59 PM | Reply | Permalink
Bless you, sweetie. (Sniff!)
October 6, 2008 2:19 PM | Reply | Permalink
And George Mason, father of the Bill of Rights!
October 6, 2008 2:39 PM | Reply | Permalink
Those numbers from Virginia have to send a shiver down the spine of the McCain campaign. All it takes is Iowa, where McCain has never held a lead, and New Mexico, where he has only held two small leads since June, and Virginia, where Obama is now leading by double digits, and Obama is the next president.
Does anyone know if these numbers reflect McCain's brother's comments about Northern Virginia being "Communist country"? If not, might they even be a point or two worse?
October 6, 2008 1:00 PM | Reply | Permalink
New Mexico is going to vote for Obama - I'm just sure of it.
In the first place, this is the 3d poorest state in the country. In the north here, tourism and second home owners are the basis of the economy - art galleries. That's the first thing that goes under in a recession because it's pure luxury. People are very nervous about the economy.
October 6, 2008 1:04 PM | Reply | Permalink
I was going to have tuna salad and a Diet Coke for lunch but I'll take these numbers instead!
October 6, 2008 1:04 PM | Reply | Permalink
I know a lot of people are working very hard here in Virginia to turn this momentum into a landslide! Keep up the great work everyone and I'll probably see you all going door to door this weekend here in "communist country"!
October 6, 2008 1:08 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yup. I've been out canvassing already and I'm making tons of calls. Will be canvassing the last 3-4 days before the election as well.
October 6, 2008 1:13 PM | Reply | Permalink
http://taxprof.typepad.com/taxprof_blog/2008/10/tax-profs-agree.html
Josh has the link up on the front page. I decided to post this much of the article. I just love it so!
October 6, 2008 1:11 PM | Reply | Permalink
Do you know if the latest polls would include early voting?
Any takers?
October 6, 2008 1:11 PM | Reply | Permalink
Tyler, forget the diet coke and go for a Vernor's instead,,,,, this calls for a celebration!
Tena, OK on New Mexico,,,,, now can you deliver Texas like you primised back in the primaries??
October 6, 2008 1:12 PM | Reply | Permalink
I might have been able to if the Democrats had paid any attention to the state. I dunno - we're way behind in the polls.
I keep holding out hope for the huge voter turnout and I think we'll see it and I believe it's closer than the polls suggest - I'd like to know who they're polling.
Noriega was ahead of Cornyn for awhile. But we've been ignored again. There was some support early and Noriega was doing great as a result.
I'm not happy that Texas has been written off again - it's damned short-sighted.
October 6, 2008 1:15 PM | Reply | Permalink
Tena, I agree. It is sickening that we didn't Cornyn. He seems like such easy pickings that I don't know why the DNC didn't get more involved. He doesn't have any staff at my county Democratic party headquarters.
I don't know why Democrats are content to give over 34 EVs every 4 years rather than stage a fight here. True, it will be a long-term battle, but well worth it in the end.
October 6, 2008 1:35 PM | Reply | Permalink
OK, that post was a mess. It should be "get" Cornyn. And the "he" I am referring to is Noriega, who doesn't have any staff members in my county's Democratic party HQ. I've never once seen a Noriega ad in central Texas. It's a shame. I thought he really had a chance because Cornyn is a moron (though after reading the specifics about his exchange with McCain in Rolling Stone, I have to admit I had just a touch more respect for him).
October 6, 2008 1:37 PM | Reply | Permalink
Well, I hope you're in the position Virginia was in four years ago. We were very disappointed that the Kerry campaign, after some encouraging words, put essentially no effort into our state. They may have been right about their chances to win it, but we knew there was something happening, and over the past four years, we've proved it. I can't wait to see you guys can follow the same path!
October 6, 2008 2:52 PM | Reply | Permalink
Holy crap!
This could be the week that ends it all...
Tomorrow night is a must see, once in a lifetime event: John McCain's live spectacular meltdown.
Thank God is not pay-per-view!
October 6, 2008 1:12 PM | Reply | Permalink
I can't wait to see what the Rasmussen and PPP Ohio polls will look like. I was knocking on doors in Akron this weekend - not the most conservative part of the state, but also far from the most liberal - and the support was incredible. I also overheard that the Summit County early voting center was going crazy and that Democrats were heavily outnumbering Republicans because McCain has no early GOTV effort. It's a small corner of a big state, but Obama is banking a lot of votes there already.
October 6, 2008 1:15 PM | Reply | Permalink
Obama has hit on early voting, hard. Every HQ in the country is advising people to vote early. That's been a big part of the GOTV for the Obama campaign.
They know turnout will be high and they also know that is an excuse for some precincts to get it wrong.
October 6, 2008 1:17 PM | Reply | Permalink
Its even being hit at hard in CA. Admittedly, its almost no cost at all to send out an email, but its still something.
October 6, 2008 2:31 PM | Reply | Permalink
Are you sure about the early voting turnout in Ohio being strong? I just read an article linked from pollster.com I think that said just the opposite. That the early voting in Ohio had been light so far, perhaps because people are more undecided and are waiting for more info to make up their minds. Where did you get the info on Ohio early voting being heavy?
October 7, 2008 7:01 AM | Reply | Permalink
Thank you for the info about the high turnout for early voting. I have been very very worried about the 2004 Ohio no-voting-machines-for-you! stunt in high-dem precincts, and that increased dem registration would only aggravate that problem this year.
That early voting is so popular is enormous reassurance.
October 6, 2008 2:25 PM | Reply | Permalink
There is also a good article about Georgia at
http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/10/in-georgia-small-improvements-in-black.html
October 6, 2008 1:17 PM | Reply | Permalink
I suggest McCain start pulling put of most of these states and send resources to AL and AZ so he doesn't suffer the ignominy of losing the home states of the ticket.
October 6, 2008 1:18 PM | Reply | Permalink
The last Alaska poll I saw had Obama ahead.
I hope like everything they lose their home states. That will just make my life.
October 6, 2008 1:20 PM | Reply | Permalink
I canvassed in Virginia (Northern Va. -aka "communist Country" - Fairfax County) this weekend, in a targeted canvass of "undecideds" and self-described independents. Besides the surprising support for BO, the biggest factor was the traditional Republicans being "undecided" (or downright depressed) over Palin. Time and again we heard disparaging comments about Palin from otherwise GOP voters ("Carribou Barbie" was my favorite)who tell us they will vote Republican down-ticket, but might skip the Presidential race. Not scietific, certainly, but revealing at least in our neighborhood.
October 6, 2008 1:19 PM | Reply | Permalink
I like anecdotal evidence.
I sometimes think it is actually more credible than "expert" evidence like polls.
October 6, 2008 1:24 PM | Reply | Permalink
McCain's polls number are dropping faster than Dow Jones. Its the ECONOMY STUPID! McCain and his daughter ought to etch that slogan in their pee brain heads.
October 6, 2008 1:20 PM | Reply | Permalink
Grand-daughter . . .
October 6, 2008 2:00 PM | Reply | Permalink
Is this also missing from the Palin tax returns ....Winning are taxable...Notice this is the fourth win?
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Familiar faces on the verge of Iron Dog victory
Author: CRAIG MEDRED
Anchorage Daily News
Staff
Date: February 18, 2006
Publication: Anchorage Daily News (AK)
Page: C3
Word count: 1109
A nightmare of trail behind them, Scott Davis and Todd Palin were in the Interior village of Tanana on Friday night poised to win another Tesoro Iron Dog snowmobile race. Barring the unexpected, the F6 Arctic Cats of Kenai's Davis and Wasilla's Palin will purr across the Iron Dog finish line in Fairbanks around noon today to claim a top prize of more than $25,000 from the race's $90,000 purse.
For Palin, this would be a fourth victory with a third [Read article (fee)]
http://nl.newsbank.com/nl-search/we/Archives?p_product=AS&p_theme=as&p_action=search&p_maxdocs=200&p_text_search-0=todd%20AND%20palin%20AND%20wins&s_dispstring=todd%20palin%20wins%20AND%20date(all)&xcal_numdocs=20&p_perpage=10&p_sort=_rank_:D&xcal_ranksort=4&xcal_useweights=yes
October 6, 2008 1:20 PM | Reply | Permalink
Texas will never go blue again. They could suffer through a Depression and be forced to eat armadillos off the highway as they breathe through masks after the Texas City refinery erupts and poisons their kids, but too many Texans can't give up their hatred of "libruls" and Muslims and so-called Washington elites.
October 6, 2008 1:21 PM | Reply | Permalink
So you're omniscent, you can predict the future for Texas.
Thanks.
I would say something really rude, but I'll skip it because supposedly we're all on the same side.
I don't know where you live, but I know where I live and I know Texas and it was blue for a damn long time. We produced some great liberal leaders for this country.
you can slag off on that attitude. I'm beyond fucking sick of it - I've heard it for years. So what's up with Pennsylvania, that Carvill calls it Philadelphia and the rest is Alabama?
October 6, 2008 1:26 PM | Reply | Permalink
You could also point out that the "Texan" GWB was actually born in CT, my home state, where the Bush political dynasty was really born. Also, quite interestingly, Moses Austin was born in CT.
October 6, 2008 1:48 PM | Reply | Permalink
Don't forget that 'Texan' GWB's dad, Poppy was actually born in blue, blue, blue, MA, in not too far from where JFK was born.
October 6, 2008 4:47 PM | Reply | Permalink
Texas may very well be capable of turning blue, but I think that using the argument that Texas was blue for 'a very long time' is a very weak argument considering that was over 40 years ago when Southern Dixiecrats were still Democrats and before LBJ turned the Dixiecrats against his party by passing civil rights legislation.
October 7, 2008 7:08 AM | Reply | Permalink
Thanks for the bigotry, TJ. It really adds something to the discussion.
October 6, 2008 1:40 PM | Reply | Permalink
Even Reps admit Texas will be turning blue by 2016, demographics folks, demographics.
October 6, 2008 2:35 PM | Reply | Permalink
In case you had not noticed, those Texans are becoming fewer and farther between. For one thing, that attitude is far less common among Hispanic Texans than it is among Anglo Texans, and the Hispanic Texan population is growing a heck of a lot faster than the Anglo Texan demographic. For another, Texas (like everywhere else in the south) continues to be flooded by young professionals from the northern states who like beaches and sun. These folks might not count as "real" Texans in the minds of the natives, but their votes tally the same as any 9th generation Texan.
October 6, 2008 1:40 PM | Reply | Permalink
Totally agree. I still have lots of family ties back in that state....the demographics are changing rapidly.
October 6, 2008 2:42 PM | Reply | Permalink
NBC has moved WI, PA, MI and NH and out of "toss-up" and into "Lean Obama."
October 6, 2008 1:22 PM | Reply | Permalink
VA is getting safer. CO is projected blue. Up next are NC and IN. What then? Missouri? Georgia? North Dakota? Texas????
Schwing!
October 6, 2008 1:22 PM | Reply | Permalink
Just finished watching the Keating documentary. That is pretty well done. Hope the MSM guys will talk a lot about it.
October 6, 2008 1:27 PM | Reply | Permalink
with the good chance that this character slander road mccain is taking is going to backfire, and the fact that obama is a better debater and overall stronger candidate, mccain is on the verge of destroying himself on national television.
He wants it too bad, and its quickly slipping away. i'm truly anticipating the next 30dys
October 6, 2008 1:29 PM | Reply | Permalink
Come the fuck on - nobody bothers to point out that California has given us such gems as Ronald Reagan, Daryll Issa and Richard fucking Nixon.
No, everyone finds it far easier to diss Texas.
I can't wait until you all have to eat those words.
October 6, 2008 1:30 PM | Reply | Permalink
You are really looking to start some kind of inter-State showdown today, huh?
October 6, 2008 1:55 PM | Reply | Permalink
Typical Texan....next you'll declare yourself a "whole other country" or something!
(Just kidding, really, kidding) :-)
October 6, 2008 1:57 PM | Reply | Permalink
Tena I won't diss TX or CA but I can say IL has given the union Lincoln and now Obama. For all our faults (we're in the running for most jailed governors) that ain't too shabby.
October 6, 2008 1:56 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yeah, but weren't you all also responsible for Henry Hyde?
October 6, 2008 2:43 PM | Reply | Permalink
Don't forget Tom McClintock, John Hagee, and Herbert Hoover.
October 6, 2008 2:35 PM | Reply | Permalink
No question liberals give Texas a hard time, but this year, I gotta nominate Kentucky for the most-dissed state of the presidential campaign.
Racist, toothless, retarded, barefoot, mountain hicks too stupid to be allowed to vote ....
Not even Texans have to take the abuse we've taken this year.
I actually do think Texas is going blue, and I wouldn't be surprised if it happened this year.
October 6, 2008 2:51 PM | Reply | Permalink
i really hope they have the medical staff close by. i seriously think mccain may need it.
obama is going to pummel him.
October 6, 2008 1:33 PM | Reply | Permalink
Is there a McCain path to victory sans Virginia?
No!
And he's behind: double digits!
Holy Landslide, Batman!
They'll be pulling the troops out of Wisconsin soon to concentrate on Virginia and Ohio, though this time they'll just do a stealth withdrawal.
Twenty-eight days to go!
And it's pretty clear to me, too, that Sarah Palin is driving undecideds away from McCain
October 6, 2008 1:33 PM | Reply | Permalink
This will help McCain by allowing him to withdraw his campaign there and focus on more winnable states like Idaho and Utah.
October 6, 2008 1:43 PM | Reply | Permalink
LOL! Only probably more true than funny.
October 6, 2008 2:53 PM | Reply | Permalink
And in comes Gallup with McCain bleeding another point. Lots of good news.
Now we just have to control the Narrative as McCain tried to slime away, and come out of the debate on Tuesday strong.
John
October 6, 2008 1:46 PM | Reply | Permalink
Why are pollsters allowed to do polling, and exit polls, based on race?
It always strikes me as a form of virtual apartheid.
A vote is a vote, and why should black voters be singled out, as some sort of different caste. I hate it, and think that it should be outlawed.
October 6, 2008 1:47 PM | Reply | Permalink
Or 'hispanic' . . . what about hispanics who are black? I guess 'latinos' are the ones who speak Latin . . .
October 6, 2008 2:05 PM | Reply | Permalink
Free speech, man. They can ask and say whatever they want.
It'll be kind of sweet in the coming years when the only demographic being talked about is the shrinking portion of white voters who support the GOP. ;-)
October 6, 2008 2:39 PM | Reply | Permalink
Ram also has a bunch of polls coming out at 6, it will be interesting to give them a look see. Although I still detest his ID spread they will still be interesting to see.
October 6, 2008 1:55 PM | Reply | Permalink
13% of black Virginians say they're voting for McCain? They must've accidentally called Condoleeza Rice a few times...
October 6, 2008 2:00 PM | Reply | Permalink
I doubt that even she will vote for McAngry. Gov. Yup-Yup and her coquettish lounge act is probably enough to send her over the edge.
October 6, 2008 2:26 PM | Reply | Permalink
wow... if VA falls for McCain, then this thing is o-v-a.
October 6, 2008 2:02 PM | Reply | Permalink
me and my little family went down to va. to canvas for obama on saturday and sunday. we only managed a handfull of registrations ourselves but the obama office was hopping and signs of change were everywhere. is the confederacy finally crumbling?...it would be so sweet! much love and admiration for the folks at the obama office in fairfax!
October 6, 2008 2:08 PM | Reply | Permalink
holy landslide batman!
October 6, 2008 2:10 PM | Reply | Permalink
Ok, everyone! Listen up!! The election is 28 days away. ANYTHING can happen in 28 days. Barack could really flub a critical question in a debate or the stockmarket could rally 4000 points or Sarah "Wasilla Witch" Palin could suddenly become a tolerant, accepting person who really has a semblence of an idea about what she's talking about.
Now, none of these are probable. But, as someone who as a youngster lived through the 1964 Phillies end-of-season collapse (10-straight losses), I know anything, anything is possible.
So, continue to donate time, money, and even prayers to Barack's campaign.
If you haven't donated in the last 2 weeks, donate again NOW because there is a time gap between the receipt of a donation and the donation being spent by the campaign.
If you haven't donated 10 hours or more to the campaign, do so over the last few weekends.
Me? I'm volunteering this weekend in that bastion of communism, Arlington, VA. And,I'm donating another $100 tonight. Oh, and I pray to God every night that s/he protects Barack during the coming years, and inspires the people of this country to elect him as our next president.
Nuf sed.
October 6, 2008 3:01 PM | Reply | Permalink
just one more thought. there was this elderly black lady entering the pancake house we were registering voters in front of. when we asked her if she was registered she said oh yes with an intense look that said so much. like i have been voting in vain for a long fucking time and this one is going to make it all worthwhile. maybe i am reading in to it. but that was how i read it.
October 6, 2008 2:16 PM | Reply | Permalink
I think its really impossible for people to realize how big a deal this is-especially for people who lived through the ugliest parts of this country's history in the last 60-70 years. Its hard to put into words and dwelling on the thought of it for more than a minute brings me to tears. When everything you've ever perceived of about this country has had a racial caveat--to be witnessing a day when that historic 'except you' is potentially about to be wiped away....its mindblowing to the psyche.
October 6, 2008 2:34 PM | Reply | Permalink
I think about it every time I'm at an Obama event and look around me. "Largest multi-racial movement since the Civil Rights movement." It still gives me shivers.
October 6, 2008 2:41 PM | Reply | Permalink
As someone who always had faith that Obama could win in Virginia, I am still in shock over these numbers. Really! I know darn well we have a month, and any and everything could happen. But still.
Lemme take a moment to savor it.
((Inhale. Exhale.))
Thank you, thank you, thank you for everything you all are doing. It's amazing!!
October 6, 2008 2:39 PM | Reply | Permalink
I concur. The day I went to see Michelle O at UCLA and saw the makeup of the 12,000 people who showed up on Superbowl Sunday, in the rain, 7 hours before the doors ever opened...I knew this was going to be the most amazing series of events I would ever witness. The 24 hour news cycle doesnt really afford us the opportunity to enjoy the moment..but its history folks. Plain and simple. Stand back and enjoy being a part of it.
October 6, 2008 2:47 PM | Reply | Permalink
"Caribou Barbie"! I love it! Gotta send that to a few friends--thanks.
October 6, 2008 2:54 PM | Reply | Permalink
So... that "reply" thing doesn't work too reliably, huh? Shoulda been subbed below Jake the Flake upthread.
October 6, 2008 2:56 PM | Reply | Permalink
Hey, don't forget New Hampshire gave the country Franklin Pierce!
Another thing about NH besides its libertarian streak - they're not overly religious up here. Remember Dean in 2004 trying to explain that New Englanders don't wear their religion on their sleeves? It's nobody else's business where you go to church.
In that respect, Palin may have hurt McCain more than help. A lot of people still remember the McCain of 2000 and liked his "maverickiness", but right wing religious zealots tend to turn peole off.
October 6, 2008 3:16 PM | Reply | Permalink
So when will we get the news that McCain is pulling his campaign out of Virginia?
October 6, 2008 3:21 PM | Reply | Permalink
Unfortunately McBush and Caribou Barbie are campaigning in Virginia this week. In Virginia Beach and Richmond. I never thought I'd say this in Virginia but it may be too little, too late for them! :-)
October 6, 2008 4:28 PM | Reply | Permalink
McCain won't be going supernova. Just as Palin didn't. I think you'll find that the strategy of "answering" questions with completely unrelated "answers" will be the MO for Repukes for elections to come.
October 6, 2008 4:15 PM | Reply | Permalink
Answering questions with unrelated talking point speeches is standard procedure for these people. It's up to a good moderator to control them and keep them on point. At the very least, the moderator should admonish them if they try to do it.
October 6, 2008 4:53 PM | Reply | Permalink
Napoleon, I mean McCain, must be frothing at the mouth over these new polls. I'm sure his response, internally and externally, will be nasty. I say Napoleon because of his military self image, and also because of his issue with size, or more accurately, lack of it. I understand from the Rolling Stone cover story that he is very sensitive about his shortness and often flies off the handle if it is brought up. Temper, temper.
October 6, 2008 4:35 PM | Reply | Permalink
nice! did the phone bank and canvassed last week. richmond (or my area/southside) is all about obama. saturday we registered a guy who is 28 and has never registered to vote until now, to vote for obama. loving it!
October 6, 2008 5:17 PM | Reply | Permalink
I want Missouri to go blue
October 6, 2008 6:38 PM | Reply | Permalink
I think more surprising than this news is the fact that in WEST VIRGINIA the poll numbers have tightened to within 5% according to pollster.com. A deep red state that is pure Appalachia turning into a light red state?!?! Who would've thought? Maybe Obama should spend a campaign stop in Charleston. Or at least Biden should.
I hate to bring this up, as the prospect is so frightening, but its a reality that was spoken of back in June that if Obama is up by a bunch in the last month that the chances of a lone extremist at home quietly oiling his gun making a national appearance goes up by the day. The Secret Service must be aware of that, and his campaign would be stupid not to recognize the possibility and proceed with caution in allowing him to campaign in right leaning confederate states.
October 7, 2008 7:29 AM | Reply | Permalink
Obama will win Missouri, Indiana, and North Carolina, along with Virginia, don't count him our of Georgia either, the poll numbers there don't include Bob Barr's numbers. He will hurt McStrokeye there.
October 7, 2008 7:42 AM | Reply | Permalink
As much as I'd like to see it, Texas will never go blue. Far too many rednecks and neocons here. I work with all of them! I will say this - at the beginning of mccain's palin announcement, the boys were all stirred up about how great she was and that she was the perfect choice. They have gone nearly silent at this point but would never, ever vote for a black man. We are a sad state. One need only look around to see how inbred most texans appear. Case in point - the boys like "The Dukes of Hazard" because you didn't have to think much while watching the series. That's the problem in this State. Nobody thinks anymore.
October 7, 2008 9:23 AM | Reply | Permalink
Well, at least you do have liberal hotbeds like Austin and Obama still polls in the 30 percent range. I think a good barometer of the most racist states are the ones where Obama polls in the 20 percentile range of which there are two; Idaho and Utah.
October 8, 2008 1:59 AM | Reply | Permalink