Polls Show Obama Ahead In All Three Largest Swing States
The newest polls in the big three swing states paint a very clear picture: Obama seems to be pulling away in Ohio, and to a lesser extent in Florida, while his big lead in Pennsylvania is holding steady.
Here are all the latest polls from just the last few days, beginning with some new Quinnipiac polling out this morning:
FloridaOct 29 Quinnipiac: Obama (D) 47%, McCain (R) 45%
Oct 28 LAT/Bloomberg: Obama (D) 50%, McCain (R) 43%
Oct 27 Datamar: Obama (D) 49%, McCain (R) 44%
Oct 27 Rasmussen: Obama (D) 51%, McCain (R) 47%
Oct 27 Suffolk: Obama (D) 49%, McCain (R) 44%
Oct 27 Zogby: Obama (D) 47%, McCain (R) 47%
Oct 24 Str. Vision (R): McCain (R) 48%, Obama (D) 46%
Oct 29 Quinnipiac: Obama (D) 51%, McCain (R) 42%
Oct 28 LAT/Bloomberg: Obama (D) 49%, McCain (R) 40%
Oct 28 SurveyUSA: Obama (D) 49%, McCain (R) 45%
Oct 27 Rasmussen: Obama (D) 49%, McCain (R) 45%
Oct 27 Zogby: Obama (D) 50%, McCain (R) 45%
Oct 26 Univ. of Akron: Obama (D) 45%, McCain (R) 41%
Oct 25 Univ. of Cincinnati: Obama (D) 49%, McCain (R) 46%
Oct 24 PPP (D): Obama (D) 51%, McCain (R) 44%
Oct 24 Str. Vision (R): McCain (R) 48%, Obama (D) 45%
Oct 29 Quinnipiac: Obama (D) 53%, McCain (R) 41%
Oct 28 Rasmussen: Obama (D) 53%, McCain (R) 46%
Oct 28 Muhlenberg Tracker: Obama (D) 53%, McCain (R) 41%
Oct 27 Temple Univ.: Obama (D) 50%, McCain (R) 41%
Oct 27 Muhlenberg Tracker: Obama (D) 53%, McCain (R) 40%
Oct 26 Muhlenberg Tracker: Obama (D) 53%, McCain (R) 40%
Oct 25 Muhlenberg Tracker: Obama (D) 52%, McCain (R) 41%
Oct 24 Muhlenberg Tracker: Obama (D) 52%, McCain (R) 40%
Oct 24 Str. Vision (R): Obama (D) 50%, McCain (R) 43%
McCain is trying to make a last stand in Pennsylvania, but there's really no evidence that it is in any way working at all. And without Pennsylvania, if he loses either Ohio or Florida, both of them Bush states, then the game is basically over.
PA = not a swing state
October 29, 2008 9:36 AM | Reply | Permalink
I saw a report yesterday, they said the internals were showing McCain running ahead of Bush04 everywhere but Philly. If they can boost those numbers a little and there's any kind of fall off in the Philly area (yesterdays snow was a week early) and he has a shot.
October 29, 2008 11:03 AM | Reply | Permalink
MCCAIN HAS HIM RIGHT WHERE HE WANTS HIM!!!
October 29, 2008 9:42 AM | Reply | Permalink
McCain's camp sure thinks it's a swing state - that sniveling geek weasel Tucker Bounds called it one last night.
October 29, 2008 9:42 AM | Reply | Permalink
And not the good kind of geek. The geek who bites heads off of chickens at the freak show.
October 29, 2008 10:35 AM | Reply | Permalink
Pencil-necked?
October 29, 2008 10:50 AM | Reply | Permalink
Yep.
October 29, 2008 1:08 PM | Reply | Permalink
I agree. PA is not a swing state. It doesn't look competitive. There must be something about PA, however, that is causing both sides to fight so hard.
October 29, 2008 9:42 AM | Reply | Permalink
McCain wants PA bad because he wants at least ONE state won that Dems claim to own - it's nothing more than an issue of stubborness...similar to why we're still in Iraq.
October 29, 2008 9:44 AM | Reply | Permalink
No, he wants it because it's his last hope. He knows he lost IA, NM & CO, all red states in 2004. He HAS TO win a big blue state or he has no hope of reaching 270 EVs.
October 29, 2008 9:47 AM | Reply | Permalink
That's right. PA may be a long shot, but it's a long shot with 21 EVs. That's nearly the same as IN and MO combined.
With so many red states moving towards Obama, McCain has to do what he can to flip PA as insurance against loses in red states. He is nearing the point - if not already past it - where PA is a must win state for him (like FL & OH).
October 29, 2008 10:01 AM | Reply | Permalink
You could be right about that, because I cannot figure out why McCain is wasting his time there. He should be in Indiana or Missouri, where his odds are better. So maybe it is just plain old man stubborn behavior.
October 29, 2008 9:47 AM | Reply | Permalink
He doesn't have the resources to compete with the Obama campaign, so his only hope is to hope against the odds that the Bush states come through for him without a huge effort, and to try to flip one of (Kerry states + Iowa), and they decided PA was their best shot. (Probably because they -- incorrectly -- thought coded racist appeals would work there.)
It's not a strategy that's likely to win, but it's the best of bad choices. If he campaigned hard in Indiana and Missouri and won them, he'd still lose without taking something away from Obama.
October 29, 2008 1:18 PM | Reply | Permalink
similar to why we're still in Iraq.
Does sound exactly like the reason GWB wanted daddy's old job, doesn't it? McSame. . .
October 29, 2008 10:33 AM | Reply | Permalink
I know people hate to get too confident, but at this point Obama is closer to hitting 380 electoral votes than 270. Enjoy it. Just be sure to vote.
http://pufferfish.typepad.com/
October 29, 2008 9:44 AM | Reply | Permalink
411 is his high water mark to be exact (MT,ND,WV,AZ,GA). Hey as long as we get a mandate I will be happy, 6 more days folks so lets work HARD to get the job done.
October 29, 2008 9:48 AM | Reply | Permalink
Don't forget Arkansas If there's a wave, it could get crazy.
October 29, 2008 10:00 AM | Reply | Permalink
Well, I like that and it's all well and good, but for those of us that need to keep feeding our ulcers...
He's only up three in Rasmussen this a.m. First time that poll's been this close in a month. Then again, at this point, I should pay more attention to the state polls. But where/who are these f-ing people???
October 29, 2008 9:46 AM | Reply | Permalink
Well, I like that and it's all well and good, but for those of us that need to keep feeding our ulcers...
He's only up three in Rasmussen this a.m. First time that poll's been this close in a month. Then again, at this point, I should pay more attention to the state polls. But where/who are these f-ing people???
October 29, 2008 9:47 AM | Reply | Permalink
im rocking back and forth in the corner. 2 days ago i knew we were gonna win, today, not so much. Call me a democrat, but we always find a way to loose.
October 29, 2008 9:51 AM | Reply | Permalink
God, I wish I could smack some of you people ;)
October 29, 2008 9:53 AM | Reply | Permalink
I've read on three different sites so far this morning that anything can happen between now and Tuesday. If all remains on course, Obama wins, but...
If something catastrophic, like a major Joe Biden gaffe, takes place, it'll be tragic.
I know how much you dislike some of us being "downers," but caution right now is the best personal trait we should all have right now.
You have a lot of sensitive voters out there, a lot of people who aren't "in the know" about what's happening and all it'll take is another Murtha-esque gaffe in some of the battleground states to sway voters in McCain's direction at the last second.
Support your ass off - YES
Do it with caution and know every second until the polls close next Tuesday are critical - ABSOLUTELY
October 29, 2008 10:00 AM | Reply | Permalink
hehe, I'd love to an example of a Biden Gaffe that could swing this election in the last 6 days.
Maybe if he's caught having sex with Palin in the backseat of Joe the Plumbers' pick-up, that'd be big enough. But no slip of the tongue by Biden is going to throw this election to McCain at this point.
Could McCain come back and win? Of course. But something historic would have to happen.
October 29, 2008 10:08 AM | Reply | Permalink
Correction - SAM The Plumber! Damn shame he wasn't a butcher...then McCain could have had all surviving Brady Bunch cast members on the stump for him!
Seriously, McCain's recent ad with Biden's "tested" comments, even though they were completely edited out of context, could be enough to sway just the right amount of voters in critical battlegrounds.
Just stick Biden straight to script, no deviating, and he should be fine for six more days.
And the image of Palin and Biden you just gave me...me....UGH, excuse me as I look for a garbage can to wretch in!
October 29, 2008 10:12 AM | Reply | Permalink
haha. That was by far the tamer of the 2 examples I came up with. I'll just say the other one included Obama, Bristol Palin and her unborn baby.
I'm sorry...
October 29, 2008 10:16 AM | Reply | Permalink
Man, you're a Kevin Smith/Judd Apatow flick all in one today, dude! ;-)
October 29, 2008 10:18 AM | Reply | Permalink
The old political joke is "He can't lose unless he caught in bed with a dead woman or a live boy."
October 29, 2008 10:19 AM | Reply | Permalink
I'm right there with you. Except even two days ago I didn't think we were going to win. And I won't, unless and until.
October 29, 2008 9:53 AM | Reply | Permalink
Goodstuff please tell me that is snark. It's the most pathetic thing I have heard this early morning if you are being serious.
October 29, 2008 9:56 AM | Reply | Permalink
AARRGHHH
HULK SMASH
October 29, 2008 10:01 AM | Reply | Permalink
I hope this helps at least a little with the Rasmussen poll:
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/10/29/92933/948/238/645575
October 29, 2008 9:58 AM | Reply | Permalink
Also Chris Bowers had a discussion on Open Left of the fact that you can't get from the internals (to which he has full access as a subscriber) to the topline in that poll without some pretty bizarre rounding decisions along the way.
October 29, 2008 10:11 AM | Reply | Permalink
Another thing to keep in mind...at this point, with so many early votes already in the bank, the national trackers are starting to scrape the barrel of potential undecideds. And while I don't have any real data to back this up, my gut tells me that among the small slice of people who have remained coy about their choice all the way to this late date, when pushed to say which way they lean will probably say McCain because deep down they are conservative by nature and fear of the unfamiliar will drive them in that direction. This will naturally cause "tightening" in the polls. But,IMHO, the state polls are more telling at this point. And every indication I see says that all the action is happening in former Bush "red" states.
October 29, 2008 12:08 PM | Reply | Permalink
Look, if you want to torture yourself looking at national daily tracking polls, go for it. But here's something to consider.
Evidently McCain had monster Sunday numbers on Rasmussen. Those monster numbers drop out after today. Second, Chris Bowers at OpenLeft is raising some questions about the numbers that Rasmussen is posting, given the supposed breakdown of voter demographics. Third, the early voting indicates an Obama edge, everywhere, and massive African-American participation, something the tracking polls aren't reflecting. Fourth, I would have given my eyeteeth in 2004 for an entire flock of tracking polls giving Kerry a +3 lead. This year, Rasmussen, today, is the only one giving our guy a +3 lead. All the rest indicate a wider lead.
Finally, donate, volunteer, phone bank, write letters to the editors of your local newspaper supporting Obama, talk him up to your colleagues, get some bumper stickers, just do something.
October 29, 2008 10:08 AM | Reply | Permalink
Here, here!!!!
October 29, 2008 10:21 AM | Reply | Permalink
And may the game be basicaly over sooner rather than later,,,,, I don't do all nighters like I used to.
When Jim Lehrer says, "Well there you have it: Barack Hussein Obama Jr is the 44th President of the United States" it's time to share a cup of warm milk with the cat and then off to sleep,,, to dream,,, of better days soon to come.
October 29, 2008 9:54 AM | Reply | Permalink
Sorry hyperRevue. But I'm of an age where this is only my second presidential election where I was deeply involved/concerned. '04 was #1. I dont' want that pain again, and Lord knows I don't want McCain or Palin anywhere near Pennsylvania Ave. unless they are there taking pictures for a scrapbook.
These state-by-state polls of those three look promising, however. Obama two of them, it's over.
October 29, 2008 9:57 AM | Reply | Permalink
I was more talking to goodstuff. And I was also more or less joking. Sorta.
October 29, 2008 10:02 AM | Reply | Permalink
Sorry hyperRevue. But I'm of an age where this is only my second presidential election where I was deeply involved/concerned. '04 was #1. I dont' want that pain again, and Lord knows I don't want McCain or Palin anywhere near Pennsylvania Ave. unless they are there taking pictures for a scrapbook.
These state-by-state polls of those three look promising, however. Obama two of them, it's over.
October 29, 2008 9:58 AM | Reply | Permalink
Obama is way up in PA, and with PA he just needs anyone of these states...
NV,CO,VA,NC,IN,MO,FL,OH.
He needs ONE of those states to become president.
Currently in the RCP AVG's of those states he is ahead in EVERY SINGLE ONE. With large leads in CO and VA and now NV as well.
October 29, 2008 10:03 AM | Reply | Permalink
Looking at SurveyUSA's VA numbers, I'm actually very encouraged that it goes for Obama. They have McCain receiving 13% of the African American vote, which is a point better than Bush did in 2004. Also, they peg the African-American vote as 18% of the electorate, which is 3 points lower than it was in 2004 (according to exit polls).
If Obama can hold the Kerry States and pull VA, IA and NM (or IA, CO and NM) then he's 44. He doesn't need Ohio, Florida, North Carolina, Indiana, Missouri or Nevada. So far it looks pretty good.
October 29, 2008 10:10 AM | Reply | Permalink
Yep, I got a class on the 4th at night, but ill be sitting in the back with my laptop waiting for VA polls to close. If it looks like VA is going for Obama then ill know Obama has already won. So we could find out who won by 7 pm eastern time.
October 29, 2008 10:20 AM | Reply | Permalink
Well, keep your eyes on the Kentucky Senate race, too. Polls close there at 6 PM. If it's too close to call, something will definitely be up. In a very excellent way.
October 29, 2008 10:29 AM | Reply | Permalink
If your teacher has any sense he/she will roll a TV into the room and sit down and enjoy it with the rest of us! :-)
Seriously, is anybody in the class going to be listening to a lecture?
October 29, 2008 10:38 AM | Reply | Permalink
As I mentioned in a post upthread, I think we are near (probably at) the point where Obama only needs to win one of them. They are all 3 must-win states for McCain... and even that may not be enough.
October 29, 2008 10:07 AM | Reply | Permalink
I expect to see some tightening in the national polls as red states get redder, due to the meat being tossed their way by the desperate McCain campaign. If the state polls are this solid, that is GOOD news.
Yes, cyclist falling off time, no time to get complacent, but no reason to despair, either.
October 29, 2008 10:02 AM | Reply | Permalink
I'm actually kind of happy the polls are tightening - this will ensure more voters who originally planned to sit this one out because "Obama has it in the bag" to get off their asses and into the polling booths!
October 29, 2008 10:15 AM | Reply | Permalink
Make that "voting booth" - DER!
October 29, 2008 10:16 AM | Reply | Permalink
I was laying in bed after I woke up this morning and I just got hit with a huge wave of CALM.
We've done it. We've won.
October 29, 2008 10:12 AM | Reply | Permalink
I'm with you. I start to get nervous and then I look at the polls. I expect it to tighten, but hell even the polls using the 2004 breakdowns still have Obama leading.
October 29, 2008 10:14 AM | Reply | Permalink
Um, our guy says "Not yet."
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8Xnk9aqih8o
October 29, 2008 10:15 AM | Reply | Permalink
And the other bike is scary as hell.
October 29, 2008 10:16 AM | Reply | Permalink
I got scared by that falling down cyclist video so I signed up for 3 more canvassing and GOTV slots. No work (or TPM) on Tuesday...
October 29, 2008 10:16 AM | Reply | Permalink
The race is tightening but it doesn't look to be outside of the patterns we've seen over the past 3 weeks. Rasmussen has it down to 3 after having it between 4 to 8 for a month. Today's polls have Obama up 3,3,5 and 6.
Looking at the RCP Average on 10/21, Obama was at 50.2 and Mccain was at 43.0. On 10/28, Obama was at 50.5 and McCain was at 43.8. On 10/22, Obama was at 49.9 and McCain was at 42.9 So far today Obama is at 50.0 and McCain is at 44.1. So, we are seeing Obama holding steady at 50% of the vote and McCain about a point higher than he was a week ago.
When you look at the polls objectively and compare day of the week versus day of the week, you see a very stable race. However the McCain tightening is hard to take if you look at it from a day to day perspective.
October 29, 2008 10:17 AM | Reply | Permalink
I can't effing wait.... one week to the day. Yaaaay!!! I have taken the day off work, getting up early to vote, then knocking on doors all day, then picking up my first time voter friend to give her a ride to the polls. All this in the non-swing state of MN. PUMPED!!!
October 29, 2008 11:09 AM | Reply | Permalink
Eh, oh, way to go Ohio.
(Without Chrissie's snark, this time, but for real.)
October 29, 2008 11:12 AM | Reply | Permalink
It was a big mistake for McCain and Palin to not campaign in my hometown of Quakertown, PA yesterday. Quakertown, a rural and largely socially and fiscally conservative bastion, could have provided a boost to McCain for those conservative and undecided voters in northern Bucks, Montgomery, Berks, and lower Lehigh counties.
Oh, well. A little rain and they call it quits. What's that Wizard of Oz reference again? Well, more to the point, Obama braved the downpours in Chester county, as did 9000 supporters. It almost makes me wonder if McCain SERIOUSLY thinks he has a chance in PA.
October 29, 2008 12:15 PM | Reply | Permalink
Well, don't forget, a lot more of McCain's supporters are of an age where they could catch pneumonia if they stood out in the rain.
October 29, 2008 1:26 PM | Reply | Permalink