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Polls: Pennsylvania Slipping Away For McCain?
A new SurveyUSA poll of Pennsylvania suggests that this big Dem-leaning swing state, where John McCain has been making a major play, may have slipped away from him for good.
The numbers: Obama 55%, McCain 40%. Obama is ahead 52%-43% among men, ahead 57%-38% with women, and even leads 49%-45% among white voters.
The McCain campaign had high hopes that they could take advantage of Obama's problems with working-class whites during the state's primary. But more and more polls, such as Muhlenberg, Quinnipiac and Rasmussen, are showing Obama way ahead here.
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THIS
October 7, 2008 12:44 PM | Reply | Permalink
IS
October 7, 2008 12:46 PM | Reply | Permalink
EXCELLENT
October 7, 2008 12:49 PM | Reply | Permalink
TERRORIST!!
[dammit, I keep getting that wrong]
October 7, 2008 12:51 PM | Reply | Permalink
TREASON!
Oops.
October 7, 2008 12:53 PM | Reply | Permalink
FIST-BUMP!!!
October 7, 2008 12:58 PM | Reply | Permalink
NEWS
October 7, 2008 1:04 PM | Reply | Permalink
FOR ALAN KEYES!!!!
October 7, 2008 1:30 PM | Reply | Permalink
Nerds!
All in fun. I'm right with you all.
October 7, 2008 1:15 PM | Reply | Permalink
IS
October 7, 2008 12:44 PM | Reply | Permalink
Well, uh, you know, members of the electoral college are allowed to change their mind...
October 7, 2008 12:45 PM | Reply | Permalink
You mean the automatic electors?
October 7, 2008 1:15 PM | Reply | Permalink
IS
October 7, 2008 12:45 PM | Reply | Permalink
EXCELLENT
October 7, 2008 12:46 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yikes. So what's left for McCain?
Slime, slime, slime, slime and more slime.
October 7, 2008 12:46 PM | Reply | Permalink
Pretty soon he is going to have to retract his forces back down to Arizona, lest he end up so badly beaten that he cannot even win re-election in 2010.
October 7, 2008 12:49 PM | Reply | Permalink
I don't think he'll for the Senate again. He'll retire. I think he only stuck around in the Senate this long, because he had his eyes set on another Presidential run.
October 7, 2008 12:51 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yeah, as I think about it, you are probably right about that. Is it perhaps time for a "Napolitano for Senate" exploratory committee to start forming?
October 7, 2008 1:02 PM | Reply | Permalink
Arizona - where the South fought the North (and the Northeast, and the Upper Midwest, and the Mountain Central, and the Pacific Coast) to a draw!
October 7, 2008 1:32 PM | Reply | Permalink
What's left for McCain? Go home to his sugar-mommy and be a nice boy for once so she doesn't kick his sleazy saggy old ass out on the street. Maybe she'll give him one of her houses.
October 7, 2008 2:17 PM | Reply | Permalink
News
October 7, 2008 12:46 PM | Reply | Permalink
The part I love the most about PA being so far out of reach for McCain is that McCain can not poll out of PA even though he has not shot in it. If he pulls out of PA like he did MI then the press would have a field day over it.
October 7, 2008 12:47 PM | Reply | Permalink
In 2007, Bucks County (Philly 'burbs) went from slightly red to slightly blue, but Obama's ground game here is astonishing!
We closed out new registrations yesterday, and estimates are that Dems out registered Reps by at least 2:1 and it could be significantly higher than that.
Pennsylvania will do Obama proud! Even lifelong GOPers are swinging to Obama, and McCain's latest Medicare plans are helping us greatly!
PEACE
October 7, 2008 1:08 PM | Reply | Permalink
I was in Bucks County this weekend and I agree - the ground organization is PHENOMENAL. We walked 5 turfs and got a great response. This doesn't event reflect all the new registrations.
October 7, 2008 1:35 PM | Reply | Permalink
I was in Montgomery County this weekend. At the campaign office there were over 75 volunteers on Sat. morning at 11am ready to go door to door. Most of them were from out of town. People came from NJ, DE, and NY just to canvass for Obama in a battleground state. (well, I think some came down for the Springsteen concert too) Anyway, the ground game was amazing.
October 7, 2008 3:13 PM | Reply | Permalink
I don't get why Repubs even try for Pennsylvania... they do it every year and it always fails.
Truth is, some 51-49 states can really swing either way, while some just have a hardened 51 against a hardened 49... PA and MI are both like that. Waste 'o cash for Repub candidates.
October 7, 2008 1:28 PM | Reply | Permalink
Will he still need VA? I'm still having a hard time accepting that one going for Obama . . .
October 7, 2008 12:48 PM | Reply | Permalink
I won't believe Fla, NC or Va until it happens, though I am certainly hopeful. I'm keeping my fingers crossed that Obama carries all Kerry states and pulls Iowa, Colorado and New Mexico on Nov. 4th.
October 7, 2008 12:50 PM | Reply | Permalink
I truly have my doubts about all of these states as well. But here is how it could happen:
1. VA -- military types do not trust Palin. NoVa does not trust McCain and is truly motivated by Bush contempt. They actually work for the federal government and they know first hand what a mess it all is. McCain needs a lot of turn out in places that are trending blue . . .
2. NC -- Significant African American turn out, banking crisis calling the entire Charlotte economy into question, which means, all those "value" issues you thought defined you are falling away fast as you look at the "value" of your 401k and your house, and penury stares you back in the face for the first time ever.
3. FL -- Motivated AA base, older Cubans fading away, younger Cubans not so much in love with McCain, and younger Cubans, Jews, and retirees of all ethnicities completely baffled by the appeal of Palin and terrified by the economic crisis. Bonus: Many voters old enough to remember Keating 5 scandal.
October 7, 2008 1:13 PM | Reply | Permalink
Excellent points, all of them. I will add, in regard to Virginia, that in the last polling report that I saw, McCain was not leading in any region of the state. In the southwest, which has been the Republicans' strongest part of the state in recent decades, he is dead even with Obama. A month ago, McCain was leading Obama in southwest Virginia by more than 20 points. That he's now only dead even there is an illustration of how completely his support in the state has collapsed.
October 7, 2008 1:46 PM | Reply | Permalink
"...military types do not trust Palin."
They trust her more than Obama...you can bank on that.
October 7, 2008 3:11 PM | Reply | Permalink
The other major state to consider there is Nevada- the difference in ground games is astonishing (I was in Reno this weekend)
October 7, 2008 2:27 PM | Reply | Permalink
ACORN's definately doing their part!
http://elections.foxnews.com/2008/10/07/acorn-vegas-office-raided-voter-fraud-investigation/
October 7, 2008 3:12 PM | Reply | Permalink
I went out door to door in Ashburn VA, which historically has been reliably red, on Saturday. I was shocked at 1) the number of Obama-Biden signs, 2) the lack of Palin-McCain signs, 3) the relatively few Republicans who were so tied to McCain they would not listen, and 4) the energy of the Democrats, who dropped what they were doing to point out persuadable neighbors.
VA will go blue by at least 6 points.
October 7, 2008 3:13 PM | Reply | Permalink
He's banking on using his red meat rallies and gutter smears to win the 2004 Bush states. That's all he has left, hoping to play to fear and racial anxieties.
October 7, 2008 12:48 PM | Reply | Permalink
But New Mexico and Iowa are already all but gone (and Colorado is right behind).
October 7, 2008 12:50 PM | Reply | Permalink
What, exactly, is McCain's path to 270?
October 7, 2008 12:48 PM | Reply | Permalink
McCains one and only path to 270 is to win all the current "swing states", IN,MO,CO,NV,OH,FL,NC,VA. His only chance is to win all of those.
October 7, 2008 12:51 PM | Reply | Permalink
Then it's over - for god's sake - he has to have them ALL?
That's impossible.
October 7, 2008 12:53 PM | Reply | Permalink
Sweeping the swing states has been McCain's best shot all along. He campaigned in MI and PA because he HAD to, not because he ever really had a chance.
October 7, 2008 2:53 PM | Reply | Permalink
Just for fun, can you tell us in how many of those 8 "swing states" is McCain currently ahead?
October 7, 2008 12:54 PM | Reply | Permalink
Well RCP avg's have McCain leading in IN and thats it.
October 7, 2008 1:03 PM | Reply | Permalink
I don't know that he's ahead in any of them - he's even in some - isn't Nevada neck and neck? Co. was neck and neck yesterday; Obama was ahead in N. Carolina; Va, Fla, Mo -
is he ahead in any of them?
October 7, 2008 1:03 PM | Reply | Permalink
Bribing about 255 electors after the election?
October 7, 2008 12:56 PM | Reply | Permalink
FOR McPLAMEALIN!!!!!!
October 7, 2008 12:48 PM | Reply | Permalink
NICE!!!! Didn't Kerry win PA, though?
October 7, 2008 12:49 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yes, by the hair on his chinny chin chin, essentially.
Look: this is bad for McCain, even if PA went Democratic in 2004. The press is going to be chattering about this, thereby further cementing the theme that Obama is starting to pull away.
October 7, 2008 12:52 PM | Reply | Permalink
I agree and I also agree with Thera that that kind of thing fuels a landslide - once it starts, people want on board.
and I think the polls are too pessimistic by many points.
October 7, 2008 12:54 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yeah, but he was white and had the Heinz name to run on with...
October 7, 2008 12:53 PM | Reply | Permalink
But still couldn't catch up . . .
*ducks*
October 7, 2008 1:19 PM | Reply | Permalink
Ketchup always gets my vote!
October 7, 2008 1:23 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yes, and I am happy and sad that I won't be canvassing in PA this year over Halloween weekend. I stayed with my mother and spent the entire pre-election weekend of 2004 GOTV for a hyper well-organized union.
October 7, 2008 1:16 PM | Reply | Permalink
I live in PA and have done phonebanking, and I'll tell you what McCain's problem is - Palin. Lots of weak Obama supporters/leaners who are now totally carrying the flag because of the idiocy of the Palin pick.
October 7, 2008 12:52 PM | Reply | Permalink
Palin pick is only for those who seriously believe God got Bush where he is (no, I know a couple of such believers in real life). Those people would support her even if she couldn't answer her own name. But it seems she has turn of moderate Republicans, even.
October 7, 2008 12:59 PM | Reply | Permalink
SSShhhhhh!!!!!!!!! Don't tell Pat Buchanan.
October 7, 2008 1:01 PM | Reply | Permalink
HAHAHA - the Republican talking heads are already on the cable news networks stating these recent polls are all tilted Democratic in who's being called.
So, when McCain was in the lead in early September, the polls were completely and 100% accurate, but now that Obama's back in the lead, they're inaccurate and partisan-stilted.
Didn't we get enough of that crap when Howard Wolfson tried this lame tactic and failed miserably in the primaries??
October 7, 2008 12:54 PM | Reply | Permalink
The Great Liberal Conspiracy.
October 7, 2008 12:57 PM | Reply | Permalink
Disney, General Electric, Rupert Murdoch...
October 7, 2008 1:02 PM | Reply | Permalink
Let them believe that. It will only lead to an even greater defeat.
October 7, 2008 1:28 PM | Reply | Permalink
Pa is obama by 15.
GA is mccain by 7.
I'm thinking we need different state maps to the right indicating what's a battleground and what is not.
October 7, 2008 12:54 PM | Reply | Permalink
One really has to wonder just how many AA voters were polled in Georgia.
;)
October 7, 2008 12:56 PM | Reply | Permalink
I don't know about the polling, but I do know that AA have made up around 40% of the early voting here in GA. It was 25% in 2004. Nate Silver guesstimates that if AAs account for 29% of the voters than McCain's lead will be shrunk down to 2%....and that's based on voting patterns of 2004. I think this state may be closer than some people are ready to admit.
Even if Obama doesn't manage to eek out a win, it's excellent news for Jim Martin who is running against Saxby Chambliss for Senate.
October 7, 2008 1:08 PM | Reply | Permalink
I love fivethirtyeigtht.com for all swing state analysis. If you really want to feel good right now, click on over there and check out the projections. Nate Silver does an amazing job analyzing the latest polls but also breaking down the swing states into tipping points, returns on investment, etc.
Bottom line: this is ALL excellent new....for US.
October 7, 2008 1:12 PM | Reply | Permalink
I mean fivethirtyeight.com
October 7, 2008 1:13 PM | Reply | Permalink
The 538 is great. Nate's a good guy, and has put a lot of thought into innovative Polling analysis.
I think as some of us were pointing out in other threads, GA is huge because of from where Obama has come from *and* because the Senate race is getting very interesting. Both remain a unlikely, but there is a dynamic going on that if it continues for another week or two, all bets are off in the state. There's a real potential for synergy between Obama and Martin as the forces of "change" and for McCain and Chambliss to tank. Something very similar to what happened in NC with Libby flatlining and McCain sinking like a rock.
If we get through this week with no serious damage from the McCain 24/7 Slime (either in the polling or in the Narrative), there are several huge ones to watch:
GA Pres & Senate
MS Senate
KY Senate
John
October 7, 2008 1:49 PM | Reply | Permalink
No way Obama wins GA or Saxby loses...Mashall will lose GA-8 and GA-12 may go Republican too.
October 7, 2008 3:30 PM | Reply | Permalink
These polls are the only things keeping me sane right now. McCain is a disgrace. If he wants me to believe Obama is a terrorist and is guilty of treason then I'll also have to accept that McCain and at least the rest of the Senate have all aided and abetted treason. How does a person become a US Senator without anyone noticing his terrorist tendencies? And now that McCain has identified the terrorist in our midst, he should suspend his campaign and hold hearings, alert the DOJ, FBI, CIA etc Do everything in his power to get Obama to Guatanamo without delay. That's putting Country first.
October 7, 2008 12:55 PM | Reply | Permalink
Paging SFCWallace.
October 7, 2008 12:59 PM | Reply | Permalink
What ever happened to that "let me tell you about all the AA's at my law school" guy?
October 7, 2008 1:01 PM | Reply | Permalink
Here's what I am waiting for: Sarah SparkleStarburst to say as she did about teh gay: I'm tolerant. I have friends of friends who know an African American and believe me, I have nothing but tolerance.
I'm just waiting -
October 7, 2008 1:05 PM | Reply | Permalink
He's in FL, yelling "terrorist" at McCain-Palin rallies.
October 7, 2008 1:32 PM | Reply | Permalink
McCain is sleeping with a known drug addict, thief and tax cheat. What would stop Ms. McCain from trading state secrets to satisfy her addictions?
McCain pals around with and has never renounced the actions of convicted domestic terrorist G. Gordon Liddy. How do we know that McCain will not coddle domestic terrorists in the White House?
McCain's running mate is sleeping with a known member of a radical secessionist cabal. What ideas is Mr. Palin secretly whispering into Ms. Palin's ear at night?
October 7, 2008 1:02 PM | Reply | Permalink
Don't bet on Cindy sleeping next to McCain after November 4th. Her last hope was to live in a house she didn't have to pay for, and that dream is all but over. And, with it, the marriage.
PEACE
October 7, 2008 1:14 PM | Reply | Permalink
Wouldn't you be a drug addict, if you were married to John McCain?
Cindy's pill dependancy, is looking a lot more understandable in light of McCain's anger and misogyny issues. We are just now getting a glimpse of Johnny Boy, that she may have been dealing with for years.
October 7, 2008 3:26 PM | Reply | Permalink
I didn't have a chance to check TV yesterday -- could anyone please tell me how the MSM (beside Faux) is reporting the McCain camp's negative attacks? Are they still obsessed with false equivalency?
October 7, 2008 1:02 PM | Reply | Permalink
They're all practicing the fairness doctrine ... "both campaigns have gone negative." Of course, one campaign lies to achieve its negative status, the other simply states the facts.
October 7, 2008 3:05 PM | Reply | Permalink
When does McCain have to pull back and stop pretending like his only hope is to hold on to the Bush states?
Though I guess that McCain has so destroyed his chances in Iowa tha he has no path to the White House that doesn't involve him flipping a Kerry state.
October 7, 2008 1:06 PM | Reply | Permalink
Gallup: Obama winning 51-42!
October 7, 2008 1:07 PM | Reply | Permalink
Senator McCain, a Col. Trautman is here to see you. Col. Samuel Trautman. Says he has something to tell you.
October 7, 2008 1:07 PM | Reply | Permalink
That's been true for at least several days now - if not longer.
;)
October 7, 2008 1:08 PM | Reply | Permalink
And now +14 in Minnesota. Whoowee!
October 7, 2008 1:10 PM | Reply | Permalink
Ya know the closer your decimation
The more ya slip-slidin' away...
October 7, 2008 1:11 PM | Reply | Permalink
LOL!
Almost perfect. Devastation, not decimation. McCain's gonna lose more than 10 percent of Bush's electoral count.
October 7, 2008 3:00 PM | Reply | Permalink
MN Poll - Univ of NM
Obama 54 McCain 40
I posted yesterday a post by Ed Shultz stating that according to his sources, McCain may be withdrawing resources from MN to Ohio, Virgina and FL by the end of this week.
October 7, 2008 1:14 PM | Reply | Permalink
I think President Obama's first act in office should be to broker a deal with Governor Palin to allow Alaska to secede. The United States would pick up the bill to move McCain there and, perhaps after adding som much needed executive experience to his resume by joining the PTA, he later could ascend to that country's presidency.
Though I prefer the ending where he is dropped on a chunk of sea ice with a stack of books on climate change only to be mauled by polar bears.
October 7, 2008 1:17 PM | Reply | Permalink
Nah. He should retire to Florida and be beaten up by Jewish grandmothers who still can't believe he put Palin on the ticket.
October 7, 2008 2:48 PM | Reply | Permalink
SPARTA!!!!
With an honorable mention to SPINAL TAP!
October 7, 2008 1:24 PM | Reply | Permalink
Seeing that McCain's lead has vanished in Ohio and Florida (especially Florida) I just don't see how the campaign can justify keeping resources in PA.
They need to withdraw from every blue state and just try to stop the bleeding.
But if they want to believe that the polls are biased and that they still have a shot in PA or MN or WI I'm not going to complain. Maybe they'll get lucky and pull a win out of one of those states.
But if they lose Ohio and/or Florida in the process it will be a pyrrhic victory.
October 7, 2008 1:26 PM | Reply | Permalink
Reagan assured us it was a vegetable.
October 7, 2008 1:29 PM | Reply | Permalink
McSame playing ketchup?
October 7, 2008 1:35 PM | Reply | Permalink
First: my comment above was in response to baristaberry's "Ketchup always gets my vote!"
Second: People's votes are worthwhile only insofar as they are allowed to vote, and are counted. Who's tracking the necessary massive effort to have legal assistance and monitors available at polling stations to ensure that votes are allowed to happen, and are thereafter counted??? Please: this is a big concern of mine, and I haven't seen the coverage of it...
October 7, 2008 1:35 PM | Reply | Permalink
Check out the web page for Obama's Voter Protection Center.
October 7, 2008 1:59 PM | Reply | Permalink
Working class whites are breaking for Obama and that spells the end of things for McCain. Campaigns are stories.
The 42-year-old single mom who pridefully held her head up and paid her bills for decades--until two years ago when she has to use a food bank in the last week of every month.
The two 20-year-old's who work in the fast food industry, have zero health insurance, no assistance from anyone, and are behind two months on their rent.
The 40-something wife who cannot be covered with her husband's insurance who has been going to a free clinic for the past six years...and who has not been able to afford an eye exam or any dental care for all of that time.
Need more? These are my neighbors and I found them only after door-to-door canvassing. All five are Obama supporters and all five are now registered to vote in November.
Let me repeat....working class white folks are breaking for Obama.
October 7, 2008 1:45 PM | Reply | Permalink
Shorter McCain campaign after 10/1:
"Leero-o--o-o-o-o-o-o-o-y Je-e-e-e-nkins."
October 7, 2008 1:55 PM | Reply | Permalink
The way things are going McCain will have to start pulling resources into Alabama, Utah, etc. to avoid a sweep.
October 7, 2008 1:57 PM | Reply | Permalink
I agree that this is encouraging news and I'd like to see this lead expand some more. However, as observed in George Packer's piece in this week's New Yorker, the situation is more complicated and polls may not reflect the voting reality. Packer cites a study by Andrew Kohut:
http://www.newyorker.com/reporting/2008/10/13/081013fa_fact_packer?currentPage=all
October 7, 2008 2:19 PM | Reply | Permalink
Complete and total bullshit.
Packer, who wouldn't know a working-class white person, especially of the Appalachian variety, if one of us bit his useless balls off, has his head up his ass.
The Bradley effect is 20 years out of date, and was discredited a decade ago. Shit, even DINO Harold Ford, after getting slammed with racist attacks, still did BETTER in the actual vote than his final polls showed.
Tena's right - these five-point Obama leads are hiding actual 10-point Obama leads.
October 7, 2008 3:17 PM | Reply | Permalink
I think its only a matter of time till the McShame campaign pulls out of My State!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
October 7, 2008 2:30 PM | Reply | Permalink
TO POOP ON!!!
(ahem)
October 7, 2008 2:33 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'm optimistic about many of these Senate races, including Chambliss in Georgia but I see almost no chance McConnell loses in Ky.
October 7, 2008 2:36 PM | Reply | Permalink
Sorry, Chambliss will win in GA. The only polls that show a close race have a Sunday or Wednesday in the roll up. You can't get an acurate poll reading in GA on one of the Lord's days.
October 7, 2008 3:13 PM | Reply | Permalink
Two weeks ago I would have agreed, as that's what I've been saying since January.
However, the turn of the worm is rippling even through Kentucky.
As worthless as Lunsford is, McCain is actually fucking up the end of the campaign.
I'm gonna go out on a limb and say that Kentucky and Georgia go together this year - either both Saxby and Mitchie lose, or they both pull it out.
October 7, 2008 3:20 PM | Reply | Permalink
I CAN HAZ GOOD PREZIDENTZ?!?!?!
October 7, 2008 2:44 PM | Reply | Permalink