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Polls: Obama Way Up, Palin And Economy Dragging McCain Down

Two new national polls show Barack Obama expanding his lead over John McCain to a seven-point margin, thanks in large part to two big problems for McCain. The first one is the economy -- and the second is Sarah Palin.

The numbers from Pew: Obama 49%, McCain 42%, with a ±3.5% margin of error. And from Time: Obama 50%, McCain 43%, with a ±3% margin of error.

In the Time poll, 65% say their personal economic situation has declined in the last year, and this group is going 59% for Obama. In the Pew poll, Obama is trusted over McCain to improve the economy by 51%-33%.

And here's the bad news for Palin. Time says that McCain is losing women at a faster clip than Palin was able to gain them -- before the two conventions, Obama led among women by ten points, which then narrowed to one point after she was picked. Now he leads by 17 points.

And in Pew, Palin's public image has taken a very serious fall. Three weeks ago, Palin was seen as qualified to be president by a 52%-39% margin. Now that number has been reversed: Only 37% think she's qualified, and 51% say she is not.


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Did I mention that we're going to win Ohio?

Book it!

Hell, we're going to win Virginia -- we don't even need Ohio.

But we'll take it!

Have you watched any of the interviews with Stephen Spoonamore? If you think Obama will win Ohio, watch who controls the electronic tabulation and transmission. It is the Rapp family's Triad company which collects the data then sends it to Tennessee to SmartTech. These are both run by radical right Christian groups and the interface was designed by Rove tech genius Mike Connel, who has said he will do "anything" to stop people from killing babies.

Check it out. Then tell me how confident you feel about Ohio or Obama's election for that matter.

Ir's all about turnout.

Machines can only push the margin so far before it breaks wide open. The only reason this shit worked in 2000 and 2004 was low turnout, under 60% in 2000 and just over 60% in 2004 and a 50-50 electorate. That isn't the case this year. Even if they steal Ohio, no way they can steal PA, FL, VA and CO as well. Not to mention other "marginal" states for McCain.

We can still win as long as everyone shows up and refuses to go home until they have voted. That is the way a real democracy should work but hasn't worked in this country. We have never seen the same numbers as most advanced social democracies see every election.

I think we will this year, though, and that will be the start of our move away from this nightmare we've been living in.

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I'm gratified at the reversal in the "qualified" numbers for Palin, but excuse me: how the f^ck did so many people think she was qualified in the first place?

I feel like I'm living in bizarro world.

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Darlin - why do you insist on concentrating on the irrelevant? What difference does it make really that some people thought at first she was competent? She's a governor - I can see that. But once they heard her - her numbers have dropped like a rock.

Instead of concentrating on the handful of idiots - why not be encouraged by the way this is playing out?


:)

The switch on Palin reflects directly on McCain.

Looks like the 51% initially trusted McCain and the GOP to pick a qualified veep. Governor with that maverick thing going on, hey, give John the benefit of the doubt.

Now that we have learned a bit about Palin, that benefit of the doubt is gone. Bad news for McCain.

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But he insists that the American people love her and are more impressed as they get to know her. He said that yesterday, so it must be true.

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Why is Obama wasting his time and money on Florida, of all places?  Shouldn't he be concentrating those resources on swing states???

Ooh, Ooh,

I've got an answer! (Probably wrong), but buried in that Quinnipiac data is your answer for why Obama's campaign is deploying resources in Florida: because it makes McCain respond.

And so far they've responded by sending Palin--whose campaigning has helped drive her numbers way down in Florida.

Talk about a double bonus . . .

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Ha!  Great answer!

BigO is making McSame waste resources on FL.  Of course!  Dunno why I didn't see that!

I dunno how excited you should be... She is, after all, an "expert" in "energy".

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You're right.  I think I'll take a stress pill, sit back and enjoy the ride.

dude, you should REALLY enjoy this ride

Florida is in play

Virginia, Mississippi, Colorado, North Carolina, Montana

they're in play too

along with a couple of other repuglitard strongholds

Indiana, Ohio, Alaska, Texas (yep, even in fookin texas) Wyoming, Arizona, New Mexico, Nevada

if you wanna SMILE FOR A WEEK, go look at some numbers in the senate races

most sane people think 60 seats is DOABLE

I think we can get 67 seats

and remember when that repuglitard clown who said if the gop brand was dog food they would be taking it off the shelves ???

we thought he was joking

but they REALLY ARE taking their dog food off the shelves

monday, I saw a commercial where a local repuglitard leader was singing the praises of non-partisan elections (and he didn't even wanna mention that he was a repuglitard), and, then about a minute later, I saw a commercail denouncing that same guy, using the words "Conservative" and repuglitard like they was the plague and leprosy or something

to paraphrase a cliche, There is a CANCER on the GOP

and there ain't no cure ...

so smile more often, even if it's only in your head

Better to be safe than sorry. I wouldn't put it past and repug in Florida to recreate a hanging chad issue in Florida using electronic voting machines.

I can't really do wingnut think all that well, but I certainly live amongst them . . . and . . .

it seems to me that many of those types have decided that the logical play would be to "let" Obama win.

From their perspective (as I randomly guess at the ideas running through the not-so-effervescent support for McCain-Palid), if Obama wins and he turns out to suck, that makes 2012 easier.

If he turns out to be competent, at least he's not McCain.

If Obama turns out to be excellent, they'll claim to have voted for him.

Anyway, you might be over-stating the level of fear on election tampering from those groups.

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Um, don't know how to tell you this, but we (FL) have dumped the electronic machines for paper again - this time optical scanning of paper ballots. Based on snafus experienced in the primaries, looks like it could be another clusterf!ck.

"How do you get flies out of your kitchen? (Put a bucket of shit in your living room".

Sun Tzu. Never play defense. "Whenever able, you must go AT enemy's strength, not away from it. Take the battle to his home turf so that he is forced to use resources on defense. This frees up your home front for training, planning and supply. Should you not succeed, your enemy will still have suffered a loss of morale. When he leaves his castle, he will find the world outside it very different than before your seige...

If you want the Queen, put his King, Bishops and Knights in check.

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Sarah "Cement Pumps" Palin.


:)

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mcShame's Anchor.

She sleeps wit da fisherman.

an da fisherman's partner

Its looking encouraging. The hard part is not over yet though- actually going to the polls and voting.

Hey, I'll take whatever McCain can't close out. I want a massive win, 330 EVs.

McCain is making me miss Ron Paul: http://www.digitalfuntown.com/videos/104

Well, Oilbama voted for the Bush/Cheney energy bill and.... Sorry, I channeled that drooling lunatic Dem Bill C for a moment there. My apologies.

Yikes!

Sounds like he spewed a little troll jizz on ya.

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LOL!

But now I'm a bit worried about you - you did that almost too well.

Just so ya don't start spewing pea soup...

I wonder if the general absence of certain "types" of posters here means something - like these last couple of weeks has finally shown the McCain/Palin campaign for the emptiness that it always was...

Recall when the M/P campaign said that they wanted to make it 'about personalities' because they really couldn't WIN on issues? Well, they got their wish alright; McCain as a crochety old man and Palin as a caricature of everything that's wrong with letting the fundies run their party.

Now even our favorite dwellers from under the bridge (to nowhere) cannot really defend what is clearly indefensible...

Or Maybe the Supply of Golf Umbrellas Ran Out Over at McCain's HQ??

ps over at the WaPo's Op Ed Page Ms Parker (who famously asked Palin to step aside) has comments on her rude awakening as to who these "supporters" really are - check it out.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/09/30/AR2008093002315.html

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Now is the time when the mcLame campaign will regret urging so many to vote absentee. Right about now...

They tried to stop early voting in Ohio. The judge wouldn't have it.

Jeez Weez, I hope these polls are accurate! At first glance, I was too stunned to do anything, then I read them again and felt "No way, there's gotta be some kind of error." But then at third glance, I remembered these are the affects from the debate and Black Monday.

So for the McCain campaign to get all condescending towards the pollsters is a maneuver that just gets more pathetic each passing hour.

McPANIC!!!

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Intrade right now has Obama at 66.1 and mcShame is pushing 34.

All these early voters too....

And not to mention the early voting in many states going on right now - people see these polls and that inspires them to vote right now...and hopefully for Obama!

I actually hope McCain works to get the VP debate canceled tomorrow because Palin has nowhere to go but up there. Now they could just be working the referees, but they're raising a big stink about Ifill and her most recent book where she discusses race and the news room.

Maybe they're just trying to browbeat her into going easier on Palin or maybe they're laying groundwork to pull Palin from the debate.

If Palin doesn't debate, then these Couric interview questions will be the lasting image most will have of her.

Democrats suffer on election day from voting irregularities. Early voting benefits democrats in general.

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Yes - in fact, I would hope the Obama campaign has encouraged early voting, especially in minority districts where the Republicans have a history of trying to block voting on Election Day.

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They have and they are. Obama HQ here in Taos is urging everyone to vote early or absentee.

I'm still struggling with what I'm going to do - I have the app for an absentee ballot but the post office here cannot be trusted to deliver my ballot. I don't get half my mail - this PO is notorious - worst in the entire country.

*sigh* I think I may see if I can do this by fax - the early voting clerk has a fax no.

Unless you're going to a substantially different area that day, just wake up super early and vote then.

I live in CA, so I'm voting absentee in case I'm needed/wanted in Nevada

When you get your ballot in the mail, you can sit down and vote at your leisure, and no snotty little republican plant can bully you, tell you you're in the wrong precinct, you're not qualified to vote, can't find your records, the voting machines "unfortunately" are broken except for THAT one over there (which has been doctored) etc etc etc.

Not to be a downer, but I still fear Palin will go cutesy and adorable tomorrow more than be a barracuda, and the average idiot will eat it up.

You can bet your ass McCain's advisors are schoolin' her on flash over substance - and in our American Idol-obsessed world, that is all it takes to win the White House unfortunately.

She's going to attack hard, to try and rile up Biden so then she could play the victim. Cutesy won't work because she's already been called on it in the media AND women see through that shit.

Interesting how quickly everyone bought into the "barracuda" meme. Has any one seen any evidence that she actually CAN be barracuda like? I've seen no evidence. Can she brow-beat people in private? Don't know, but I suspect that Todd is present when she does. In public, however, I've just not seen it.

Bill is speaking now in FL... damn, he's still VERY good.

Couric: And when it comes to establishing your world view, I was curious, what newspapers and magazines did you regularly read before you were tapped for this to stay informed and to understand the world?

Palin: I've read most of them, again with a great appreciation for the press, for the media.

Couric: What, specifically?

Palin: Um, all of them, any of them that have been in front of me all these years.

Couric: Can you name a few?

Palin: I have a vast variety of sources where we get our news, too. Alaska isn't a foreign country, where it's kind of suggested, "wow, how could you keep in touch with what the rest of Washington, D.C., may be thinking when you live up there in Alaska?" Believe me, Alaska is like a microcosm of America.


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Where do you get your news?

The Internet.

What sites, specifically?

Um, all of them.

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Palin: I've read most of them, again with a great appreciation for the press, for the media.


This is such utter nonsense -- and so much of it -- packed into a single 'sentence.' First off, note the past tense, "I've read..." As if 'the news' is a static event that has already 'happened.'

But WTF: "great appreciation for the press, for the media?" (COURIC: "Why, Gov. Palin! Are you trying to seduce me?")

You know, after all these interviews, I knew Sarah Palin reminded me of something or someone, and it just finally struck me who she is: A contestant on SNL's Jeopardy.

Now I feel better.

Is Bill promoting Obama or McCain?? Just had to ask...

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Barack Obama. Emphatically. Good stuff.

Let's hope she doesn't place an emergency call to her witchdoctor Pastor Muthee

I'd love to see Palin come out tomorrow and do nothing but stare at Biden, then point her finger right at him at screetch like Donald Sutherland in Invasion of the Body Snatchers each time it's her turn to respond or answer a question.

I would think she'd pull a McCain...stare at the moderator and the audience and pretend Biden isn't there.

Clinton was on fiyah in Florida.

Can't they bring back Jim Lehrer or even Ray Suarez from PBS? Also, Brokaw should be pulled from the next pres debate on October 7 as he met with McCain during the debate negotiations with the Commission on Pres Debates. He's also out of touch with current issues and I (and the NY Times) questions his ability to ask tough follow-up questions in the debate / town hall event.

I just completed my civic duty for today calling my 2 Senators offices (Obama & Durbin) about the bail out. Why can't they take more time and postpone adjournment until about Oct 17? Why the rush? $630 billion was released yesterday - Shouldn't that be sufficient for a few days? The sky hasn't fallen and China hasn't asked for their money back - yet.

You think Ifills will ask Palin if she knows which province of Russia can be seen from Alaskan territory? And why would Putin (no longer the president officially, by the way) fly over Siberia to get to the UN? Moscow's closer to the moon than to Anchorage.

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CNN: "Palin intensely prepping for tomorrow night."

Prepping - Are you kidding me?

Unless they are going to do a brain transplant - I don't think that's going to be enough.

Are there Cliff's Notes for being the most powerful person on Earth?

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dictatorship... that's about it.

Interesting article in today's LA Times about Palin's debate tactics.

http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/nation/la-na-palindebate1-2008oct01,0,6203137.story

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I never read more crap in my life -

Two other LA Times journalists I've seen on Olbermann in the last couple of days have said that there just is no way.

But go ahead and raise expectations and shake in your shoes over Palin - everyone has from the moment she was announced. And you know why? Because no one could believe McLame would pick someone who is in truth this terrible.

well he did.

We'll see what happens, but I am not scared of Sarah Dumbfuck Palin.

After Palin's performance in the Couric and Gibson interviews, I have to confess, I was curious to know how she did in her debates for the Governorship of Alaska. She couldn't have been that bad, but she still had to bring something the voters liked.

Anyway, if you're interested, you can see her debate "highlights" here:
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/10/01/why-sarah-palin-is-a-bett_n_130742.html

Yes, it's style over substance, but when has substance mattered all that much?

I think it's a mistake to put all responsibility and/or blame on the economy and Palin. Granted, the economic conditions have certainly hurt the McCain campaign, and Palin has been of little help.

However, lets not forget the behavior of John McCain in the last month or so. Nothing he has done in that time has given voters confidence or assurance in his abilities. The longer this campaign has dragged on the more it has become quite clear that McCain is not presidential.

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Exactly - McCain's mean spirit and his anger was like a punch in the face for many - obviously - look at the polls.

Palin's snide answers to Couric's legitimate questions plainly reveals her true nature. Like McCain - mean spirited.

I think McCain was betting that Americans would be attracted to these personality "issues" as a characteristics of strength.

But after 8 years of Bush - people seem to be seeing through that.

Yup - If the economy magically turned around tomorrow and Palin had an impressive debate, the fact would remain that McCain stands at the top of the ticket, and he's a poor candidate.

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The new Time poll has bush at 23% fav and 75% disapproval.

Tie mcSame to bush!

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O Noesssss! He bounced back up from 19%? Who are these idiots? O my god - Americans are so stupid - a whopping 26% still approve of Bush.

We're DOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOMED!

[and don't forget: Karl Rove is a genius!]

Who are these idiots?

Well, based on bumperstickers, a large number of them seem to be living in my neighborhood.

I think it has something to do with acting presidential (finally!) and that his party has completely abandoned him (lost puppy). Soon he'll start singing Scrooge's song from A Christmas Carol, I'm all Alone in the World.

I don't know what McCain was thinking in choosing Sarah Palin. Ms. Palin is clearly in over her head. Look how much she is even more like Bush then McCain. She comes off as not very bright like Bush. She talks before she thinks or she's thinking way too much like Bush. Her interviews are clearly not going well. I wonder why Katie Couric hasn't said, "What the hell are you talking about?" That's how Bush became a joke. No one could figure out what he is saying most of the time. It's sad but Ms. Palin is a joke. She is slipping into an abyss and she's dragging McCain down with her ~ fast. But that's what McCain deserves for putting politics first over country. In these harsh economic times, it is beyond me that anyone would even consider the notion of voting for McCain/Palin. They are a disaster! There is no evidence that they would change from the Bush policies. Bush lies so much that he can't even be trusted by his own party. McCain has chosen the same path.

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He only met her once before.

McCain couldn't have picked her.

Otherwise he would have taken HER to Iraq rather than Lieberman.

Of course, Palin would not have been able to bail McCain out after making wildly inaccurate and embarrassing remarks.

Blockquote>
NPR: Given what you’ve said Senator, is there an occasion where you could imagine turning to Governor Palin for advice in a foreign policy crisis.

MCCAIN: I’ve turned to her advice many times in the past, I can’t imagine turning to Senator Obama or Senator Biden because they’ve been wrong. They were wrong about Iraq, wrong about Russia –

NPR: But would you turn to Governor Palin?

MCCAIN: I certainly wouldn’t turn to them, and I’ve already turned to Governor Palin particularly on energy issues and I’ve appreciated her background and knowledge on that and many other issues.

From an NPR interview, via thinkprogress.org

Let me try that again...


NPR: Given what you’ve said Senator, is there an occasion where you could imagine turning to Governor Palin for advice in a foreign policy crisis.

MCCAIN: I’ve turned to her advice many times in the past, I can’t imagine turning to Senator Obama or Senator Biden because they’ve been wrong. They were wrong about Iraq, wrong about Russia –

NPR: But would you turn to Governor Palin?

MCCAIN: I certainly wouldn’t turn to them, and I’ve already turned to Governor Palin particularly on energy issues and I’ve appreciated her background and knowledge on that and many other issues.

From an NPR interview, via thinkprogress.org

Oh well, blame the site gremlins.

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Attacking Obama and Biden - that can be written off to politics.

But not enthusiastically saying YES I would turn to her for advice on any topic - Holy Cow!!!!

So if his cancer kills him in the first 6 months of his presidency...does McCain have any suggestions who we SHOULD turn to? (Except for energy - of course - which she is an expert on since she can see a gas station from her office window.)


the next debate goes to mccain thanks to brokaw!! it will not be fair at all!!!

biden watch out bc sarah baracuda is out for blood...but you need to be on your best behavior to avoid sexism charges....i feel bad for the moderator b/c they are going to say she is racist against palin.....this was a bad idea...i say put another white woman out there to question the palin monster!!! do not give mccain camp more excuses to lower the bar 6 feet deep into the ground...

I cannot under any circumstances watch Couric or Palin, but I read that Palin said "Alaska was just a microcosom of the rest of the United States!!!"
With 1.1 people per square mile, (402 per sq mi in NY state) - Well she is just totally out of touch, as we all knew anyway. There's a cute chart on the census web site:
http://quickfacts.census.gov/qfd/states/36000.html

And we all know she could not name one newspaper she reads regularly, but the Anchorage Daily News shows her approval rating is going nowhere but down since being named McCain's VP pick: Unfortunately she's at 68%, but down from the 80's.

I cannot under any circumstances watch Couric or Palin, but I read that Palin said "Alaska was just a microcosom of the rest of the United States!!!"
With 1.1 people per square mile, (402 per sq mi in NY state) - Well she is just totally out of touch, as we all knew anyway. There's a cute chart on the census web site:
http://quickfacts.census.gov/qfd/states/36000.html

And we all know she could not name one newspaper she reads regularly, but the Anchorage Daily News shows her approval rating is going nowhere but down since being named McCain's VP pick: Unfortunately she's at 68%, but down from the 80's.

She will wear an electronic device, and all the answers will be given to her...
That is probably one way of her winning the debate...

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People suggested last night there would be "jammers." I'm hoping..

Because people in general, and conservative-types in particular, will believe whatever they're told by authority until they find a compelling reason to change their minds.

bah, reply/indenting never works for me.

above is in response to the CTvoter's question "how the f^ck did so many people think she was qualified in the first place?"

Damn, if Palin is passes a "VP threshold" test tommorow her favorables and her support among women could shoot all the way back up again. Tommorow will be a very interesting day.

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I really enjoy reading the comments here. I wonder what you guys may think of the title of my latest blogpost, "Mobius Bailout and Monster Baloney punk Loose John McCannon's McCampaign". I admit that the use of "punk" as a verb is a little arcane, but the guy did put the bug up his own backside.
The Familographer

I believe Sen. Obama will not only win in VA but he will take NC to. Also, I think it too late for McCain to pull a VP switch-o-roo so he is stuck with that Palin millstone around his neck. Keep up the great work TPM. You, along with factcheck.com, moveon.org and other sites are truly keeping the GOP swiftboating in check.

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