Polls: Obama Way Up, Palin And Economy Dragging McCain Down
Two new national polls show Barack Obama expanding his lead over John McCain to a seven-point margin, thanks in large part to two big problems for McCain. The first one is the economy -- and the second is Sarah Palin.
The numbers from Pew: Obama 49%, McCain 42%, with a ±3.5% margin of error. And from Time: Obama 50%, McCain 43%, with a ±3% margin of error.
In the Time poll, 65% say their personal economic situation has declined in the last year, and this group is going 59% for Obama. In the Pew poll, Obama is trusted over McCain to improve the economy by 51%-33%.
And here's the bad news for Palin. Time says that McCain is losing women at a faster clip than Palin was able to gain them -- before the two conventions, Obama led among women by ten points, which then narrowed to one point after she was picked. Now he leads by 17 points.
And in Pew, Palin's public image has taken a very serious fall. Three weeks ago, Palin was seen as qualified to be president by a 52%-39% margin. Now that number has been reversed: Only 37% think she's qualified, and 51% say she is not.
Did I mention that we're going to win Ohio?
Book it!
October 1, 2008 12:11 PM | Reply | Permalink
Hell, we're going to win Virginia -- we don't even need Ohio.
But we'll take it!
October 1, 2008 2:24 PM | Reply | Permalink
Have you watched any of the interviews with Stephen Spoonamore? If you think Obama will win Ohio, watch who controls the electronic tabulation and transmission. It is the Rapp family's Triad company which collects the data then sends it to Tennessee to SmartTech. These are both run by radical right Christian groups and the interface was designed by Rove tech genius Mike Connel, who has said he will do "anything" to stop people from killing babies.
Check it out. Then tell me how confident you feel about Ohio or Obama's election for that matter.
October 1, 2008 2:43 PM | Reply | Permalink
Ir's all about turnout.
Machines can only push the margin so far before it breaks wide open. The only reason this shit worked in 2000 and 2004 was low turnout, under 60% in 2000 and just over 60% in 2004 and a 50-50 electorate. That isn't the case this year. Even if they steal Ohio, no way they can steal PA, FL, VA and CO as well. Not to mention other "marginal" states for McCain.
We can still win as long as everyone shows up and refuses to go home until they have voted. That is the way a real democracy should work but hasn't worked in this country. We have never seen the same numbers as most advanced social democracies see every election.
I think we will this year, though, and that will be the start of our move away from this nightmare we've been living in.
October 1, 2008 4:20 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'm gratified at the reversal in the "qualified" numbers for Palin, but excuse me: how the f^ck did so many people think she was qualified in the first place?
I feel like I'm living in bizarro world.
October 1, 2008 12:12 PM | Reply | Permalink
Darlin - why do you insist on concentrating on the irrelevant? What difference does it make really that some people thought at first she was competent? She's a governor - I can see that. But once they heard her - her numbers have dropped like a rock.
Instead of concentrating on the handful of idiots - why not be encouraged by the way this is playing out?
:)
October 1, 2008 12:16 PM | Reply | Permalink
The switch on Palin reflects directly on McCain.
Looks like the 51% initially trusted McCain and the GOP to pick a qualified veep. Governor with that maverick thing going on, hey, give John the benefit of the doubt.
Now that we have learned a bit about Palin, that benefit of the doubt is gone. Bad news for McCain.
October 1, 2008 12:27 PM | Reply | Permalink
But he insists that the American people love her and are more impressed as they get to know her. He said that yesterday, so it must be true.
October 2, 2008 12:15 PM | Reply | Permalink
Why is Obama wasting his time and money on Florida, of all places? Shouldn't he be concentrating those resources on swing states???
October 1, 2008 12:12 PM | Reply | Permalink
Ooh, Ooh,
I've got an answer! (Probably wrong), but buried in that Quinnipiac data is your answer for why Obama's campaign is deploying resources in Florida: because it makes McCain respond.
And so far they've responded by sending Palin--whose campaigning has helped drive her numbers way down in Florida.
Talk about a double bonus . . .
October 1, 2008 12:25 PM | Reply | Permalink
Ha! Great answer!
BigO is making McSame waste resources on FL. Of course! Dunno why I didn't see that!
October 1, 2008 12:32 PM | Reply | Permalink
I dunno how excited you should be... She is, after all, an "expert" in "energy".
October 1, 2008 12:37 PM | Reply | Permalink
You're right. I think I'll take a stress pill, sit back and enjoy the ride.
October 1, 2008 12:52 PM | Reply | Permalink
dude, you should REALLY enjoy this ride
Florida is in play
Virginia, Mississippi, Colorado, North Carolina, Montana
they're in play too
along with a couple of other repuglitard strongholds
Indiana, Ohio, Alaska, Texas (yep, even in fookin texas) Wyoming, Arizona, New Mexico, Nevada
if you wanna SMILE FOR A WEEK, go look at some numbers in the senate races
most sane people think 60 seats is DOABLE
I think we can get 67 seats
and remember when that repuglitard clown who said if the gop brand was dog food they would be taking it off the shelves ???
we thought he was joking
but they REALLY ARE taking their dog food off the shelves
monday, I saw a commercial where a local repuglitard leader was singing the praises of non-partisan elections (and he didn't even wanna mention that he was a repuglitard), and, then about a minute later, I saw a commercail denouncing that same guy, using the words "Conservative" and repuglitard like they was the plague and leprosy or something
to paraphrase a cliche, There is a CANCER on the GOP
and there ain't no cure ...
so smile more often, even if it's only in your head
October 1, 2008 4:59 PM | Reply | Permalink
Better to be safe than sorry. I wouldn't put it past and repug in Florida to recreate a hanging chad issue in Florida using electronic voting machines.
October 1, 2008 1:34 PM | Reply | Permalink
I can't really do wingnut think all that well, but I certainly live amongst them . . . and . . .
it seems to me that many of those types have decided that the logical play would be to "let" Obama win.
From their perspective (as I randomly guess at the ideas running through the not-so-effervescent support for McCain-Palid), if Obama wins and he turns out to suck, that makes 2012 easier.
If he turns out to be competent, at least he's not McCain.
If Obama turns out to be excellent, they'll claim to have voted for him.
Anyway, you might be over-stating the level of fear on election tampering from those groups.
October 1, 2008 3:12 PM | Reply | Permalink
Um, don't know how to tell you this, but we (FL) have dumped the electronic machines for paper again - this time optical scanning of paper ballots. Based on snafus experienced in the primaries, looks like it could be another clusterf!ck.
October 1, 2008 4:18 PM | Reply | Permalink
"How do you get flies out of your kitchen? (Put a bucket of shit in your living room".
Sun Tzu. Never play defense. "Whenever able, you must go AT enemy's strength, not away from it. Take the battle to his home turf so that he is forced to use resources on defense. This frees up your home front for training, planning and supply. Should you not succeed, your enemy will still have suffered a loss of morale. When he leaves his castle, he will find the world outside it very different than before your seige...
If you want the Queen, put his King, Bishops and Knights in check.
October 1, 2008 2:09 PM | Reply | Permalink
Sarah "Cement Pumps" Palin.
:)
October 1, 2008 12:14 PM | Reply | Permalink
mcShame's Anchor.
October 1, 2008 12:23 PM | Reply | Permalink
She sleeps wit da fisherman.
October 1, 2008 1:46 PM | Reply | Permalink
an da fisherman's partner
October 1, 2008 5:43 PM | Reply | Permalink
Its looking encouraging. The hard part is not over yet though- actually going to the polls and voting.
October 1, 2008 12:15 PM | Reply | Permalink
Hey, I'll take whatever McCain can't close out. I want a massive win, 330 EVs.
McCain is making me miss Ron Paul: http://www.digitalfuntown.com/videos/104
October 1, 2008 12:19 PM | Reply | Permalink
Well, Oilbama voted for the Bush/Cheney energy bill and.... Sorry, I channeled that drooling lunatic Dem Bill C for a moment there. My apologies.
October 1, 2008 12:19 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yikes!
Sounds like he spewed a little troll jizz on ya.
October 1, 2008 12:21 PM | Reply | Permalink
LOL!
But now I'm a bit worried about you - you did that almost too well.
October 1, 2008 12:27 PM | Reply | Permalink
Just so ya don't start spewing pea soup...
October 1, 2008 1:51 PM | Reply | Permalink
I wonder if the general absence of certain "types" of posters here means something - like these last couple of weeks has finally shown the McCain/Palin campaign for the emptiness that it always was...
Recall when the M/P campaign said that they wanted to make it 'about personalities' because they really couldn't WIN on issues? Well, they got their wish alright; McCain as a crochety old man and Palin as a caricature of everything that's wrong with letting the fundies run their party.
Now even our favorite dwellers from under the bridge (to nowhere) cannot really defend what is clearly indefensible...
Or Maybe the Supply of Golf Umbrellas Ran Out Over at McCain's HQ??
ps over at the WaPo's Op Ed Page Ms Parker (who famously asked Palin to step aside) has comments on her rude awakening as to who these "supporters" really are - check it out.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/09/30/AR2008093002315.html
October 1, 2008 2:05 PM | Reply | Permalink
Now is the time when the mcLame campaign will regret urging so many to vote absentee. Right about now...
October 1, 2008 12:24 PM | Reply | Permalink
They tried to stop early voting in Ohio. The judge wouldn't have it.
October 1, 2008 12:30 PM | Reply | Permalink
Jeez Weez, I hope these polls are accurate! At first glance, I was too stunned to do anything, then I read them again and felt "No way, there's gotta be some kind of error." But then at third glance, I remembered these are the affects from the debate and Black Monday.
So for the McCain campaign to get all condescending towards the pollsters is a maneuver that just gets more pathetic each passing hour.
McPANIC!!!
October 1, 2008 12:30 PM | Reply | Permalink
Intrade right now has Obama at 66.1 and mcShame is pushing 34.
All these early voters too....
October 1, 2008 2:35 PM | Reply | Permalink
And not to mention the early voting in many states going on right now - people see these polls and that inspires them to vote right now...and hopefully for Obama!
October 1, 2008 12:31 PM | Reply | Permalink
I actually hope McCain works to get the VP debate canceled tomorrow because Palin has nowhere to go but up there. Now they could just be working the referees, but they're raising a big stink about Ifill and her most recent book where she discusses race and the news room.
Maybe they're just trying to browbeat her into going easier on Palin or maybe they're laying groundwork to pull Palin from the debate.
If Palin doesn't debate, then these Couric interview questions will be the lasting image most will have of her.
October 1, 2008 12:34 PM | Reply | Permalink
Democrats suffer on election day from voting irregularities. Early voting benefits democrats in general.
October 1, 2008 12:35 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yes - in fact, I would hope the Obama campaign has encouraged early voting, especially in minority districts where the Republicans have a history of trying to block voting on Election Day.
October 1, 2008 12:40 PM | Reply | Permalink
They have and they are. Obama HQ here in Taos is urging everyone to vote early or absentee.
I'm still struggling with what I'm going to do - I have the app for an absentee ballot but the post office here cannot be trusted to deliver my ballot. I don't get half my mail - this PO is notorious - worst in the entire country.
*sigh* I think I may see if I can do this by fax - the early voting clerk has a fax no.
October 1, 2008 1:01 PM | Reply | Permalink
Unless you're going to a substantially different area that day, just wake up super early and vote then.
I live in CA, so I'm voting absentee in case I'm needed/wanted in Nevada
October 1, 2008 1:08 PM | Reply | Permalink
When you get your ballot in the mail, you can sit down and vote at your leisure, and no snotty little republican plant can bully you, tell you you're in the wrong precinct, you're not qualified to vote, can't find your records, the voting machines "unfortunately" are broken except for THAT one over there (which has been doctored) etc etc etc.
October 1, 2008 2:27 PM | Reply | Permalink
Not to be a downer, but I still fear Palin will go cutesy and adorable tomorrow more than be a barracuda, and the average idiot will eat it up.
You can bet your ass McCain's advisors are schoolin' her on flash over substance - and in our American Idol-obsessed world, that is all it takes to win the White House unfortunately.
October 1, 2008 12:38 PM | Reply | Permalink
She's going to attack hard, to try and rile up Biden so then she could play the victim. Cutesy won't work because she's already been called on it in the media AND women see through that shit.
October 1, 2008 12:48 PM | Reply | Permalink
Interesting how quickly everyone bought into the "barracuda" meme. Has any one seen any evidence that she actually CAN be barracuda like? I've seen no evidence. Can she brow-beat people in private? Don't know, but I suspect that Todd is present when she does. In public, however, I've just not seen it.
October 1, 2008 3:29 PM | Reply | Permalink
Bill is speaking now in FL... damn, he's still VERY good.
October 1, 2008 12:39 PM | Reply | Permalink
Couric: And when it comes to establishing your world view, I was curious, what newspapers and magazines did you regularly read before you were tapped for this to stay informed and to understand the world?
Palin: I've read most of them, again with a great appreciation for the press, for the media.
Couric: What, specifically?
Palin: Um, all of them, any of them that have been in front of me all these years.
Couric: Can you name a few?
Palin: I have a vast variety of sources where we get our news, too. Alaska isn't a foreign country, where it's kind of suggested, "wow, how could you keep in touch with what the rest of Washington, D.C., may be thinking when you live up there in Alaska?" Believe me, Alaska is like a microcosm of America.
---------------------------------------
Where do you get your news?
The Internet.
What sites, specifically?
Um, all of them.
October 1, 2008 12:40 PM | Reply | Permalink
This is such utter nonsense -- and so much of it -- packed into a single 'sentence.' First off, note the past tense, "I've read..." As if 'the news' is a static event that has already 'happened.'
But WTF: "great appreciation for the press, for the media?" (COURIC: "Why, Gov. Palin! Are you trying to seduce me?")
October 1, 2008 2:56 PM | Reply | Permalink
You know, after all these interviews, I knew Sarah Palin reminded me of something or someone, and it just finally struck me who she is: A contestant on SNL's Jeopardy.
Now I feel better.
October 1, 2008 4:29 PM | Reply | Permalink
Is Bill promoting Obama or McCain?? Just had to ask...
October 1, 2008 12:40 PM | Reply | Permalink
Barack Obama. Emphatically. Good stuff.
October 1, 2008 12:43 PM | Reply | Permalink
Let's hope she doesn't place an emergency call to her witchdoctor Pastor Muthee
October 1, 2008 12:41 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'd love to see Palin come out tomorrow and do nothing but stare at Biden, then point her finger right at him at screetch like Donald Sutherland in Invasion of the Body Snatchers each time it's her turn to respond or answer a question.
October 1, 2008 12:45 PM | Reply | Permalink
I would think she'd pull a McCain...stare at the moderator and the audience and pretend Biden isn't there.
October 1, 2008 1:39 PM | Reply | Permalink
Clinton was on fiyah in Florida.
October 1, 2008 12:46 PM | Reply | Permalink
Can't they bring back Jim Lehrer or even Ray Suarez from PBS? Also, Brokaw should be pulled from the next pres debate on October 7 as he met with McCain during the debate negotiations with the Commission on Pres Debates. He's also out of touch with current issues and I (and the NY Times) questions his ability to ask tough follow-up questions in the debate / town hall event.
I just completed my civic duty for today calling my 2 Senators offices (Obama & Durbin) about the bail out. Why can't they take more time and postpone adjournment until about Oct 17? Why the rush? $630 billion was released yesterday - Shouldn't that be sufficient for a few days? The sky hasn't fallen and China hasn't asked for their money back - yet.
October 1, 2008 12:48 PM | Reply | Permalink
You think Ifills will ask Palin if she knows which province of Russia can be seen from Alaskan territory? And why would Putin (no longer the president officially, by the way) fly over Siberia to get to the UN? Moscow's closer to the moon than to Anchorage.
October 1, 2008 12:49 PM | Reply | Permalink
CNN: "Palin intensely prepping for tomorrow night."
Prepping - Are you kidding me?
Unless they are going to do a brain transplant - I don't think that's going to be enough.
Are there Cliff's Notes for being the most powerful person on Earth?
October 1, 2008 12:52 PM | Reply | Permalink
dictatorship... that's about it.
October 1, 2008 1:02 PM | Reply | Permalink
Interesting article in today's LA Times about Palin's debate tactics.
http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/nation/la-na-palindebate1-2008oct01,0,6203137.story
October 1, 2008 12:54 PM | Reply | Permalink
I never read more crap in my life -
Two other LA Times journalists I've seen on Olbermann in the last couple of days have said that there just is no way.
But go ahead and raise expectations and shake in your shoes over Palin - everyone has from the moment she was announced. And you know why? Because no one could believe McLame would pick someone who is in truth this terrible.
well he did.
We'll see what happens, but I am not scared of Sarah Dumbfuck Palin.
October 1, 2008 1:05 PM | Reply | Permalink