Polls: Obama Sealing The Deal In Colorado And Virginia, Running Well In Other Red States
The new CNN polls confirm the conventional wisdom that Barack Obama is close to locking up Colorado and Virgnia -- a combination that would would deliver him the presidency if he holds on to all the Kerry states -- and he's running strong in other swing states, too:
• Colorado: Obama 53%, McCain 45%. Two weeks ago, Obama led 51%-47%.
• Florida: Obama 51%, McCain 47%, not all that different from the 51%-46% Obama lead two weeks ago.
• Georgia: McCain 52%, Obama 47%. This is not significantly changed from the 53%-45% McCain lead a week ago -- but it is significantly different from the 17-point win that George W. Bush had here in 2004, and could have serious implications in down-ticket races.
• Missouri: McCain 50%, Obama 48%, basically the same as a 49%-48% McCain lead two weeks ago.
• Virginia: Obama 53%, McCain 44%, not significantly changed from the 54%-44% Obama lead two weeks ago.
All five of these states went to George W. Bush twice, and combined they have a total of 75 electoral votes. These surveys all have a margin of error of ±3.5%.
As noted above, Virginia and Colorado together would guarantee Obama the presidency if he can hold all the other Kerry states -- an assumption that seems like a pretty safe bet at this point.
But why can't he seal the deal in Arizona? What's wrong with him???
October 29, 2008 4:46 PM | Reply | Permalink
Just in, McCain's now spending money in Utah!!
(ok, I'm just joking. But I wouldn't be surprised. Actually, I would.)
October 29, 2008 4:53 PM | Reply | Permalink
Please, please, please, please.
Pretty please with peanut butter and jelly on it!
October 29, 2008 5:30 PM | Reply | Permalink
As it happens, that Georgia poll (which is in line with other recent polling) is actually pretty big news. I think there's strong evidence that the black vote in Georgia is being undersampled in these polls. I don't expect Obama to carry the state, but polling like this makes that a plausible outcome.
October 29, 2008 4:50 PM | Reply | Permalink
I think you're right. McLame is running ads there.
I think it's undercounted all over the country - I do not believe AA voters get polled in anything like representative numbers of voters in this election.
October 29, 2008 4:55 PM | Reply | Permalink
Remember how ridiculous all the pundits thought it was a few months ago for Obama to be expending resources in Georgia?
Ha-ha!
October 29, 2008 5:37 PM | Reply | Permalink
6 more days!
October 29, 2008 4:50 PM | Reply | Permalink
Sure, he's sealing the deal, but why can't he close the deal?
October 29, 2008 4:51 PM | Reply | Permalink
Tuesday night. Chicago.
October 29, 2008 5:03 PM | Reply | Permalink
OK, can we stop worrying so much about national polls for a bit?
October 29, 2008 4:52 PM | Reply | Permalink
Second'd!
October 29, 2008 4:54 PM | Reply | Permalink
No. The national polls indicate that Obama is tanking. He's completely unable to close, seal, or otherwise mutilate the deal. He's sat by and let McCain label him a Marxist terrorist who wants to impose socialism on us. He insists that we share our PB & Js with shiftless people who won't make their own. He refused to co-opt Joe the Plumber, and had the nerve to make 9000 people stand out in a cold rain just to hear him speak. Who does he think he is? The One? Is he buying his own hype? I don't know WTF he's doing, but he just might lose this election, dammit!
October 29, 2008 4:55 PM | Reply | Permalink
lol!
October 29, 2008 4:58 PM | Reply | Permalink
Sounds like you had a bad rally experience.
I went to Obama's Saturday in ABQ. Waited needlessly for 3 hrs. Worst organized event I've ever gone to. Couldn't even see the guy because of a bank of port-a-potties that were put 90 degrees to the line of sight. His speech was the same I've heard 3 or 4 times (of course I'm often on here). Got egged in the face on the walk home, which cut up my face and fucked up my favorite coat.
But I'm better now. I'm getting sure that he's going to win. I would send McCain the dry cleaning bill for the coat, but I think they are short right now.
October 29, 2008 5:05 PM | Reply | Permalink
Oh dear. You of all people should have recognized snark, matyra.
But I'm curious about you getting egged? Was that some early Halloween ass hattery going on?
October 29, 2008 5:08 PM | Reply | Permalink
:) sorry, I guess the 9000 people out in the rain immediately brought on a flashback...
October 29, 2008 5:15 PM | Reply | Permalink
O word up!
October 29, 2008 4:56 PM | Reply | Permalink
What explains the nationals tightening while all the battleground state polls are holding steady or trending more towards Obama?
Is McCain going to win Texas by 60 points?
October 29, 2008 4:56 PM | Reply | Permalink
I don't think so - and I don't think so because Texas is not a white majority state.
Texas is an Hispanic majority state, I believe - it was a plurality, but I believe it's a straight majority at this point. Between our Hispanic Texans and our African American Texans, McLame may have bigger fight in Texas than anyone realizes.
October 29, 2008 4:59 PM | Reply | Permalink
Nate Silver has a response:
The myth of lagging polls
Worth a look.
His argument? Might be the case that some of the tracking polls actually have old data, not the state polls. But in any event, go read it.
October 29, 2008 5:01 PM | Reply | Permalink
I read it. I'm a bit confused, though.
I thought the lagging aspect of state polls was because they were done less frequently than national polls, not that their results were stale when announced.
October 29, 2008 5:07 PM | Reply | Permalink
I interpreted it to mean that right now, at this stage of the election, the state polls are up to date whereas earlier in the cycle, when fewer are done, they aren't necessarily as up to date as the daily tracking polls.
October 29, 2008 5:11 PM | Reply | Permalink
Good reading. The comments provide some plausible threories, too.
Thanks for the link.
October 29, 2008 5:11 PM | Reply | Permalink
And bonus, from the Silver piece:
I think this just means we should worry more.
October 29, 2008 5:03 PM | Reply | Permalink
LOL!
I'm going to start worrying twice as much so I can take over some of your burden.
;)
October 29, 2008 5:55 PM | Reply | Permalink
We're taking Texas and Arizona. 41 states. 404 EVs. It's gonna happen.
October 29, 2008 5:13 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'm curious which 9 you think Obama will not win...
Idaho, Utah, Wyoming, Nebraska, Oklahoma, Alabama, Kentucky, Kansas, Alaska?
Am I close?
October 29, 2008 5:21 PM | Reply | Permalink
Colorado and Virginia are almost done. Florida is close, but the early vote will be decisive. Missouri is too close to call and turnout will be the defining factor (it will be the definite factor everywhere for sure). Georgia is a long shot, but it's possible (High turnout of African American, Latino and first time voters, and waiting for the possible Barr factor). I would love the idea of an Obama rally in Atlanta or other GA city before Election day, to seize the momentum.
...and I want to win Arizona too!
October 29, 2008 4:53 PM | Reply | Permalink
I have to say, I like not needing OH, FL and MO to win. It's nice that states out west are having a say in this election.
October 29, 2008 4:56 PM | Reply | Permalink
Agreed on the West having a say in this election.
October 29, 2008 4:58 PM | Reply | Permalink
And I agree on the part about being happy we don't need Ohio or Florida.
I'm sure the voters in those states are just super duper individuals, but could we give it a rest of a couple of elections?
October 29, 2008 5:05 PM | Reply | Permalink
I like the new Obama "Palin wink" ad. That must the argument in the last 6 days. These two clowns don't have a clue about the economy.
October 29, 2008 4:53 PM | Reply | Permalink
LOVE that ad.
It needs to run everywhere, all day on the 3rd.
October 29, 2008 5:43 PM | Reply | Permalink
MCCAIN HAS HIM RIGHT WHERE HE WANTS HIM!!!
October 29, 2008 4:54 PM | Reply | Permalink
This is fast becoming the new "This is excellent news!! For Hillary!!!" mantra...
Idiotic for Cabinet!
October 29, 2008 5:02 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'm voting for O today in Florida!!!
October 29, 2008 4:55 PM | Reply | Permalink
6 more days!!!!
October 29, 2008 4:57 PM | Reply | Permalink
OT, but can the campaign please reconsider the outdoors celebration in Chicago on election nite?
I read Brian Ross' report on ABCNews' website and I about threw up it made me so mad. I mean, I don't want him to live in fear, but I do fear for his safety, especially given it's public knowledge where he'll be next Tuesday night when the results come in.
http://abcnews.go.com/Blotter/story?id=6133506&page=1
October 29, 2008 4:59 PM | Reply | Permalink
The concern has been there since he started running 20 months ago and it won't end, unfortunately, for the rest of his natural life. I trust the Secret Service, FBI, and Chicago police to know what they are doing. The hate groups, if the recent plot uncovered in TN is any indication, are complete morons, who are easily squashed.
October 29, 2008 5:06 PM | Reply | Permalink
Just bringing this up makes me angry. It's a concern troll way to incite worry. We might internally worry about it, but I'd rather not read about it here. It's another fear, and frankly I'm sick of our fears being used to play people.
October 29, 2008 5:13 PM | Reply | Permalink
Don't worry.
October 29, 2008 5:17 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'll breathe much easier AFTER his rally in Chicago on the 4th because that should be his last public crowd speech (until his inauguration which will have insane security).
October 29, 2008 5:16 PM | Reply | Permalink
Thank you, Jonze. Sorry for the buzzkill. I'm certainly not trying to be a concern troll.
October 29, 2008 6:49 PM | Reply | Permalink
Oh me-o my-o.
don't forget: we're going to win Ohio!
October 29, 2008 4:59 PM | Reply | Permalink
Youz guyz gonna get high at the ends and high in the middle!
October 29, 2008 5:13 PM | Reply | Permalink
Most def.
October 29, 2008 5:17 PM | Reply | Permalink
This is usually the time in the race where we start to see the losing candidate come to terms with what's coming. Obviously, this wasn't the case in 2000 and 2004, but I distinctly remember stories in the closing days of '92 and '96 about the wistfulness of the GOP candidates as they confronted reality. But McCain appears to be fervently embracing his own reality, one where he is Truman and Obama is a black, Muslim, terrorist Dewey. Will he be able to handle a loss on Nov. 4, or will he crack and wander around in his pjs insisting everyone call him Mr. President?
October 29, 2008 4:59 PM | Reply | Permalink
MCCAIN...
October 29, 2008 5:00 PM | Reply | Permalink
HAS...
October 29, 2008 5:02 PM | Reply | Permalink
HIM
October 29, 2008 5:10 PM | Reply | Permalink
RIGHT...
October 29, 2008 5:15 PM | Reply | Permalink
IN
October 29, 2008 5:18 PM | Reply | Permalink
HIS PB&J!!!!
October 29, 2008 5:34 PM | Reply | Permalink
NOM NOM NOM
October 29, 2008 5:39 PM | Reply | Permalink
MY FRIENDS!!!!
October 29, 2008 5:44 PM | Reply | Permalink
OMFG! 538 has McSlime's chances of winning the election at 3.8%. Yesterday it was 3.3%. That's a 15% increase!
Is this a harbinger of the dreaded tightening foretold by the prophets?
October 29, 2008 5:01 PM | Reply | Permalink
OH NO, TIME TO PANIC!
October 29, 2008 5:06 PM | Reply | Permalink
When McCain gets into this territory, his HYPOTHETICAL opportunity for improvement is so massive, you just know the guy has led us to JUST WHERE HE WANTS US.
October 29, 2008 5:10 PM | Reply | Permalink
Good god, I don't know if I can survive 6 more days! I'm not sure which will go first, my guts (ulcer) or brain (stroke).
October 29, 2008 5:03 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'd still like to see larger margins for Obama.
One question: given the known "cell phone" problem in polling (i.e., pollsters are only allowed to call land lines), is it possible that the supposed lack of youth participation is an artifact of current polling techniques?
I haven't had a land line in seven years -- (how) are pollsters compensating for cell-only voters?
October 29, 2008 5:05 PM | Reply | Permalink
They try to compensate by giving a higher weighting to the younger age groups that they do contact. But there have been some studies that suggest this might still undercount Obama support because cellphone-only people support Obama in higher numbers than others in their age group. The difference is probably only a few tenths of a percent in the overall totals.
October 29, 2008 5:16 PM | Reply | Permalink
Anonymous Bosch,
Several of the polling operations do dial cell numbers. There are screeners to determine if cell-only or cell+landline. They take the same demographics.
The main drawback to dialing cell phones is that calls to cell phones cannot be done using an automatic dialer. There must be someone sitting in the call center dialing by hand. So, all other things being equal, it is much more expensive to get 500 cell phone completes than 500 landline completes. There is also the potential of introducing bias due to the manual nature of the dialing.
The working hypothesis for those firms that do not dial cell phones is that the opinions and behaviors of, say, a 30-odd year old white male living in suburban DC who is cell phone only are the same of a 30-odd year old white male living in suburban DC who has a cell phone and a landline.
Personally, while I think that this is a fine hypothesis for health studies, I don't think that it holds for the election.
October 29, 2008 5:31 PM | Reply | Permalink
5 days and a wake up!
October 29, 2008 5:07 PM | Reply | Permalink
Be sure to keep those fish on ice, kawika49....
October 29, 2008 5:12 PM | Reply | Permalink
An appliance store just donated 2 rice cookers for our tourney...were up to 30 repub family entries! Needed to move the site...This weekend have to start putting up tents and Sani-tois...
Grass roots... awesome!
October 29, 2008 5:25 PM | Reply | Permalink
LOL!
October 29, 2008 5:34 PM | Reply | Permalink
By the way, for all poll obsessives, I loves me some Nate, but I highly reccomend that you find time in your polling website trolling schedule for Sam Wang's site at election.princeton.edu. The methodology behind his metaanalysis thingee is pretty convincing to me and, unlike Nate's, at least kinda has a track record.
Not that it really matters, because he and fivethirtyeight have been showing pretty close to exactly the same thing for a quite while now, but still, its a worthy site with easy to understand graphs.
October 29, 2008 5:08 PM | Reply | Permalink
Sam Wang had an article, Your Brain's Secret Ballot, in yesterday's NY Times.
October 29, 2008 5:20 PM | Reply | Permalink
ABC/WaPo Tracking Poll: Obama 52 McCain 44
http://abcnews.go.com/PollingUnit/Politics/story?id=6136936&page=1
October 29, 2008 5:08 PM | Reply | Permalink
Which translates to O unchanged, and McCain down by 1 from yesterday, correct?
OMG! McCain IS GOING TO PULL THIS OUT!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
October 29, 2008 5:16 PM | Reply | Permalink
AAAAAAAAAAAHHHHHHHHHH!!!
October 29, 2008 5:19 PM | Reply | Permalink
Um, pull what out?
October 29, 2008 5:41 PM | Reply | Permalink
Wow! Delay is just going De-CRAZZZZYYYYY on Hardball right now!
October 29, 2008 5:08 PM | Reply | Permalink
Wasn't that guy a roach exterminator at one time? Kind of hard to remember given what he left behind after his stint in DC.
October 29, 2008 5:15 PM | Reply | Permalink
Last known associates: Roaches. That's correct.
October 29, 2008 5:20 PM | Reply | Permalink
For those of us pretending to work, what kind of crazyness was he doing?
October 29, 2008 5:36 PM | Reply | Permalink
He says that he pegged Obama as a commie months and months ago. Didn't even back off it when Tweety gave him a chance. He really is the slimiest looking and acting dude ever.
Basically agreeing with Bachmann, or close to it.
October 29, 2008 5:48 PM | Reply | Permalink
OT but I like this AD:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nrBKC3nQHYk
October 29, 2008 5:10 PM | Reply | Permalink
The ultimate irony: The icon of republicanism against those who followed him.
October 29, 2008 5:18 PM | Reply | Permalink
Rasmussen has Obama up 10 in New Mexico!
Alaska 10/28; 500 LV, 4.5%
McCain 57, Obama 41
Sen: Begich (D) 52, Stevens (R-i) 44, Bird (I) 3
Michigan 10/28; 500 LV, 4.5%
Obama 53, McCain 43
Minnesota 10/28; 500 LV, 4.5%
Obama 55, McCain 43
Sen: Coleman (R-i) 43, Franken (D) 39, Barkley (I) 14
New Mexico 10/28, 500 LV, 4.5%
Obama 54, McCain 44
October 29, 2008 5:14 PM | Reply | Permalink
And that's polling likely voters which should give McCain his best numbers...
October 29, 2008 5:21 PM | Reply | Permalink
Rass is out with new numbers confirming that New Mexico (54-44) and Minnesota (55-43) remain a lock for Obama at this point. Nevada is coasting in at 50-46 for Obama as well.
October 29, 2008 5:14 PM | Reply | Permalink
Folks, we're looking good. It's going to be rocky, and the McCain/Fox/Drudge campaign is going to be blasting the fear and hate at ever-increasing decibels for the next five days, but I really think we're going to make it if we just stay strong and keep working hard. Just five more days till America's big chance to choose change (and many are already choosing it, judging from the early voting).
October 29, 2008 5:19 PM | Reply | Permalink
For the hand-wringers (and believe me, I know how you feel), consider this: a lawyer friend of mine deals with bankruptcy cases. He told me that in 30 years of practice, he's never seen a bankrupt bookie. With this in mind, check out the odds being offered on the two candidates by a large selection of bookmakers.
Obama is being offered at between 1/14 to 1/10 (you'd have to bet 14 dollars to win back 1+your original bet. McCain is being offered by most bookies at 6/1 (you bet 1 dollar to get back 6+your original bet). Bookies are very rarely wrong. So although, like many of you, I won't truly relax until the election is over and has been declared for Obama, I'm pretty sanguine that McCombover and the Repugs are history.
Check the odds here:
http://www.easyodds.com/compareodds/specials/Politics/m/147587-234-5.html
Repeat after me:
MAGOO HAS OBAMA RIGHT WHERE HE WANTS HIM!
October 29, 2008 5:19 PM | Reply | Permalink
What's the vig?
October 29, 2008 5:34 PM | Reply | Permalink
For the hand-wringers (and believe me, I know how you feel), consider this: a lawyer friend of mine deals with bankruptcy cases. He told me that in 30 years of practice, he's never seen a bankrupt bookie. With this in mind, check out the odds being offered on the two candidates by a large selection of bookmakers.
Obama is being offered at between 1/14 to 1/10 (you'd have to bet 14 dollars to win back 1+your original bet. McCain is being offered by most bookies at 6/1 (you bet 1 dollar to get back 6+your original bet). Bookies are very rarely wrong. So although, like many of you, I won't truly relax until the election is over and has been declared for Obama, I'm pretty sanguine that McCombover and the Repugs are history.
Check the odds here:
http://www.easyodds.com/compareodds/specials/Politics/m/147587-234-5.html
Repeat after me:
MAGOO HAS OBAMA RIGHT WHERE HE WANTS HIM!
October 29, 2008 5:21 PM | Reply | Permalink
Good numbers for Rasmussen.
Go Obama go!!! GOTV!
October 29, 2008 5:22 PM | Reply | Permalink
Virginia alone could do it!
He's got Iowa locked up. That's 7 votes. If he gets Virginia's 13, and holds all the Kerry states - that's enough!
So - let's all get out and get out the vote!!!!
October 29, 2008 5:57 PM | Reply | Permalink
Maybe Rasmussen is trying the reverse tactic--making Obama voters in those states complacent.
Can't decide whether to watch Obama's 30 minute ad on NBC and burn ABC, or MSNBC and burn CNN. I think I'll go network...NBC.
October 29, 2008 7:40 PM | Reply | Permalink