Polls: Obama Running Strong In Key Red States
The new set of Rasmussen swing-state polls shows Barack Obama continuing to lead in Colorado and Virginia, and running close with John McCain in a few other battlegrounds:
• Colorado: Obama 50%, McCain 46%, compared to a 51%-46% Obama lead last week. Most recent polls have given Obama a lead of about this much or even more, and the state should be considered as leaning towards Obama.
• Florida: Obama 51%, McCain 47%, compared to a 49%-48% McCain edge last week. Other polls show a tight race here, and it should be seen as a real toss-up with a possible slight Obama lean.
• Missouri: Obama 48%, McCain 47%, compared to a 49%-44% Obama lead last week. This state is a true toss-up.
• North Carolina: McCain 49%, Obama 48%, compared to a 50%-48% McCain lead from late last week. This formerly reliably-red state is also a genuine toss-up now, with other polls giving a similarly narrow lead to either candidate.
• Ohio: Obama 49%, McCain 45%, compared to a 49%-47% McCain lead last week. Most of the recent polls give Obama a lead about in line with this one.
• Virginia: Obama 51%, McCain 47%, compared to a 54%-44% Obama lead from last week. Most other recent polls have Obama ahead by a much bigger margin -- but they all agree that he is ahead.
These polls all have a ±3% margin of error.
All six of these states went for George W. Bush twice, and combined they have a total of 95 electoral votes.
It's hard to overstate just how damaging it would be for John McCain if he loses either Colorado or Virginia, let alone both. With Obama on track for solid wins in Iowa and New Mexico, both Bush 2004 states, all he has to do is win Colorado or Virginia plus all the Kerry states. At that point, McCain will have to sweep all of the remaining Bush states and snatch away Pennsylvania -- where the polls right now have him way behind.
Nov 4th is taking forever to come.
October 27, 2008 7:01 PM | Reply | Permalink
This can help you out:
http://www.236.com/news/2008/10/27/eight_ways_to_survive_the_next_9828.php
It's working for me!
October 27, 2008 7:56 PM | Reply | Permalink
That was good - thanks.
October 27, 2008 8:29 PM | Reply | Permalink
Can Stevens vote in the Nov 4 election? That is, does Alaska bar convicted felons from the polls?
October 27, 2008 11:35 PM | Reply | Permalink
Is it my imagination or is all of the movement within the margin of error? This could all be statistical noise....
October 27, 2008 7:04 PM | Reply | Permalink
Is it possible to die from schadenfreude overdose? Because I'm getting close.
Truly, if you didn't see this earlier, it's worth the click. SEVEN!!! Seven Counts! Ah-hahahaha!!!
October 27, 2008 7:06 PM | Reply | Permalink
Where the hell have you been?
It's a lot of good news to take in - some days I wonder if I"m still on earth or if this is some other dimension -
October 27, 2008 7:09 PM | Reply | Permalink
This site has been messing with my comments, so I haven't been trying to comment much.
October 27, 2008 7:12 PM | Reply | Permalink
Well shit! I've missed you a lot and have wondered quite often where you were.
Glad to see you.
October 27, 2008 7:16 PM | Reply | Permalink
Without getting too cocky - I have a funny feeling there are going to be some major surprises in our column, including an unexpected state or two. Between the size of the black vote, the latino vote, the Asian vote, the youth vote, the Palin-backlash female vote and the disgruntled/disgusted white male vote - next Tuesday night could be a real jolt to the country. And I mean a positive one.
Here's hoping!
Now let's get back to doing what we can on our last campaign week.
October 27, 2008 7:08 PM | Reply | Permalink
Well, we sure had surprises in 2006. And this time the electorate is even more energized than then.
October 27, 2008 7:11 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'm totally with you, bvd.
I'm just keeping what my gut keeps screaming to myself right now.
October 27, 2008 7:12 PM | Reply | Permalink
Word. Georgia, Montana, North Dakota, even Arizona!
ARIZONA!
That would be the biggest surprise of all!
October 27, 2008 7:37 PM | Reply | Permalink
THAT would be the greatest "Fuck You!" of all time.
October 27, 2008 7:46 PM | Reply | Permalink
Amen, brother!
News from Montana, via The Atlantic's Marc Ambinder:
RNC putting ads on air. The Big Sky is on play.
Thank you, Brian Schwitzer and thank you, Ron Paul!
http://marcambinder.theatlantic.com/archives/2008/10/rnc_goes_up_in_montana.php
October 27, 2008 7:52 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'd say Alaska would be a greater "Fuck you" than Arizona, but it's a close call.
October 27, 2008 9:10 PM | Reply | Permalink
Texas.
Believe it.
October 27, 2008 9:32 PM | Reply | Permalink
Completely agree. With Obama's ground game and the general climate of discontent, have a feeling we're going to be getting some very pleasant surprises next Tues.
http://pufferfish.typepad.com/
October 27, 2008 7:49 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yes, Danny. His ground game and the 40,000 lawyers lining up at vulnerable polling sites - they've planned it like it's fucking D-DAY. And, yes, the comparison is apt - because WE ARE TAKING OUR COUNTRY BACK FROM THE OCCUPIERS.
October 27, 2008 7:59 PM | Reply | Permalink
Obama walks the walk. He is showing he isn't taking anything for granted by holding a rally in Penn, although he is up by double digits he won't just assume he will win it. Everything else is the same old, we will be working hard to turn them blue so let's just keep up the work.
October 27, 2008 7:10 PM | Reply | Permalink
Things have been trending Obama's way in other 'red' states like Arizona. As much as we might feel impatient... a week from now things could look even better for Senator Obama.
The more McCain and Palin play their lowballs and upset people, the more republicans endorse Senator Obama, the more swing voters will move in our direction.
I was very upset to read that 100,000 voters in North Carolina who voted straight ticket may not have their presidential votes counted because apparently that vote was seperate and voters did not recognize this. Who would show up and not 'intend' to vote for president??? If they vote straight ticket, what ignoramus would determine that they did not intend to vote for the presidential candidate of their party???
October 27, 2008 7:12 PM | Reply | Permalink
Obama volunteers and the state Dem party have been trying to educate voters about the needlessly confusing ballot. Apparently it's not helping as much as hoped. As soon as I saw the sample ballot, I've been worried about this.
October 27, 2008 11:07 PM | Reply | Permalink
Anyone here live in Chicago???? It's rumored that the post-election speech will be in Grant Park. Does anyone know any specifics on that???
October 27, 2008 7:15 PM | Reply | Permalink
That's true - it's official.
October 27, 2008 7:20 PM | Reply | Permalink
THANKS TENA!
October 27, 2008 7:28 PM | Reply | Permalink
I cannot wait to vote on Nov 4.
October 27, 2008 7:16 PM | Reply | Permalink
I guess there is some benefit to my home computer being in the shop the past 2 weeks (supposed to get it back tomorrow!).
I haven't had to wade through the nervous Nelly posts when we happen to lose a point or two in a poll.
Things are looking real good here in Ohio.
As I have maintained for months, Ohio is going for Obama.
Book it!
October 27, 2008 7:18 PM | Reply | Permalink
If Heather Wilson is any indication, the Repugs are not going to put up with Stevens in the Senate.
As far as she's concerned, he was convicted, she's not going to 2d guess that conviction - Stevens shouldn't have done it.
He's so gone.
October 27, 2008 7:18 PM | Reply | Permalink
Hasn't Wilson been thrown out onto her corrupt ass yet?
October 27, 2008 10:59 PM | Reply | Permalink
She's "retiring," I think. She was supposed to be St. Pete Domenici's heir apparent, but she got tangled up in his Republican federal attorney firing squad.
She would have had a tough re-election bid, too, so I think she's calling it good for now--at least until the climate changes and she can make a comeback (hopefully, that's when hell freezes over).
October 27, 2008 11:41 PM | Reply | Permalink
Was canvassing again in Crawford Co MO... more of the same, very few undecideds, more and more Obama voters, fewer and fewer McPainites. Been working along the I-44 corridor (and Steelville), so this is hardly representative of the county as a whole, but the major population centers are up here and they seem to be breaking Obama.
just an off the cuff observation, but if Crawford goes Obama, Obama wins MO.
October 27, 2008 7:20 PM | Reply | Permalink
You are truly awesome.
October 27, 2008 10:43 PM | Reply | Permalink
Just 7 more days!!!
October 27, 2008 7:21 PM | Reply | Permalink
http://blog.mlive.com/elections_impact/2008/10/large_daniel-cowart-skinhead-plot.jpg
October 27, 2008 7:23 PM | Reply | Permalink
I should probably add that the above is a pic of one of the two neo-nazi skinheads who were targeting Obama.
October 27, 2008 7:26 PM | Reply | Permalink
I posted that pic on the lower thread - what the fuck is up with the Boy George makeup on the skinhead with the swasztika tat and the long range rifle? He's one confused little motherfucker!
October 27, 2008 7:30 PM | Reply | Permalink
I seriously want to give that inbred fuck a vicous Steven Seagal clothesline..
October 27, 2008 7:54 PM | Reply | Permalink
*vicious*
October 27, 2008 7:58 PM | Reply | Permalink
I do not blame you one bit.
October 27, 2008 8:12 PM | Reply | Permalink
:)
October 27, 2008 10:44 PM | Reply | Permalink
mutantscum
October 28, 2008 9:08 AM | Reply | Permalink
He should get more sun -- then he could overcome the pasty-white-power stupidity.
October 27, 2008 11:06 PM | Reply | Permalink
Remember everyone, this isn't a fair fight--if you are Democrat with a pulse come November 4th vote. The Republican voter intimidation/suppression tactics can swing it if it is close.
Robert
October 27, 2008 7:24 PM | Reply | Permalink
Nice polls, but the scoreboard still says Obama 0, McClown 0.
8 days, peeps.
October 27, 2008 7:27 PM | Reply | Permalink
Could y'all ease up please?
We all got the message very clearly, every single one of the 200 times it has been posted.
;)
October 27, 2008 7:34 PM | Reply | Permalink
Nice polls, but the scoreboard still says Obama 0, McClown 0.
8 days, peeps.
October 27, 2008 7:42 PM | Reply | Permalink
No. Votes are already on the scoreboard. Just because we can't read it yet (it's hidden), it doesn't mean there's no score.
But you're right if you meant to say the game isn't over yet.
(Actually, it is. I've already put in the fix. McSlime is toast. Extra burnt.)
October 27, 2008 11:24 PM | Reply | Permalink
By the way, I found the coolest Halloween candy EVAR - "Gummy Body Parts". With severed fingers, noses, eyeballs, and tongues. I'm sure the neighborhood parents will hate me but the kids will love it.
October 27, 2008 7:29 PM | Reply | Permalink
Oo - that sounds awesome!
October 27, 2008 7:31 PM | Reply | Permalink
Oh, Halloween's gonna be awesome all the way round this year. My niece is coming down, and we're going to dress up as the Mooninites. I'm going as Ignignokt and she's going to be Err.
October 27, 2008 7:33 PM | Reply | Permalink
Ok, I just about choked when I read that - goddamn it if you don't take pictures that I get to see I will never forgive you!
That's too good.
I'm still in Taos and there are some little kids living on my lane so I might get visitors. Nobody else will come back here - I don't think anyone else knows anybody is back here, especially since our street sign got stolen. It would a good spooky road for walking down on Halloween,too - a nice longish walk down a narrow dirt road with trees hanging over both sides and you can't see any houses at all until you're right up on them.
October 27, 2008 7:39 PM | Reply | Permalink
The NYC Halloween Parade - which has been officially out of control for decades since it started as a private joke in Washington Square Park - is always a spectacle of costume topicality. I predict a severe shortage of red leather jackets (probably worn in drag).
October 28, 2008 9:11 AM | Reply | Permalink
I'm not even excited about Ohio or Florida at this point. Their voting systems are so fucked up, no one can count on either one.
And
North Carolina - I say yes!
Virginia - YES!
Nevada - Yes!
and
Missouri - YES!!!!!!
these states are fired up.........
October 27, 2008 7:41 PM | Reply | Permalink
Ground game will tip the tossup states into Obama's column.
October 27, 2008 7:43 PM | Reply | Permalink
Woot! Woot! The Barack train is a comin' to town.
Just saw a great counter commercial to the McCain one echoing Joe Biden's words. The new Obama commercial points out how the quote then continues onto how they will find out Obama has a spine of steel and how Obama showed the steady hand with the economic crisis and how McCain acted erratic.
It seemed like a good commercial but then again I'm drowning in Koolaid.
October 27, 2008 7:48 PM | Reply | Permalink
I just saw that too. I like the line about McCain playing with recordings.
October 27, 2008 9:50 PM | Reply | Permalink
To be honest I expected the polls to tighten as we all step into the final week. Obama up by 6-9 points in the last week is very promising.
Obama will flood the airwaves and spread the ground game with volunteers and lawyers- $ 150 mil will be handy.
The night Obama won Iowa, if someone whispered into my ear Barack Obama will be leading 6-9 points in the final week of the GE I wouldn't have believed.
Looking back at his journey keeps me calm and confident. I've a feeling Obama is saying the same thing to his internal campaign troops.
"If can come this far, sure we can..."
October 27, 2008 8:15 PM | Reply | Permalink
OT, and perhaps I'm late for the news, but the Obama camp called on Fucks unNews. Burton said:
(DEFINITELY watch the video at the linked site)
I love this. One thing I like about the Obama campaign is they are not afraid to take on Fucks unNews.
October 27, 2008 8:21 PM | Reply | Permalink
Jeez. That woman is one sick, indecent Republican talking-point delivery tool. Either she's all about money, and will do anything for it, or she needs a straight-jacket.
October 27, 2008 9:01 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yup, and the same wild-eye stare... that's a definite sign.
October 27, 2008 9:03 PM | Reply | Permalink
Looks like the stormtroopers at Faux Noise already got the vid pulled from YouTube.
October 27, 2008 11:23 PM | Reply | Permalink
Remember the yellow car stickers that said "God Bless America" after 9/11
Well, it appears to be happening. We will almost certainly be rid of the worst administration since the Republican Herbert Hoover, who gave us the last great depression. At least he didn't give us an illegal war.
And another Repub senator bites the dust - Sen Stevens, guilty on ALL COUNTS.
And note the plot to kill blacks and Obama. These maniacs, if they vote at all, would certainly vote for McCAin, whose campaign has turned into a disgrace, including racial hatred. Only in America as they say, and only due to the Republican party, which has become so terribly corrupted by George Bush and his gang of arrogant criminals and thieves, stealing homes, and trillions of $$ re the speculative binge on Gas prices. Every $1 rise in the price of gas is a TRILLION dollars out of everyones pocket, every year.
Sen McCAin had a chance - to break with the republican party, as he talked about it during the first GWB term. He didn't - his greatest failure.
And besides plagerizing Sen Obama's call to change, McCAin couldn't change the govt. He will, just like Bush, be a puppet of the super-rich and the big corporations who control the republican party. The most immoral people we have had in power for a long long time.
Enjoy retirement, Sen McCAin - you earned it with your service in Vietnam. At least with your second wife's hundreds of millions, you won't have to worry about losing your home(s). All 7 or 8 of them worth about 13 MILLION $$. Or your private Jet plane, another $8 Million piece of property. We should all ask if you have provided a comfortable, nice upper middle class life for your first wife, who waited 7 years for you to return from Vietnam. On who you cheated to Marry Cindy for her money. Again, what happened to your moral values?
While I volunteer at the local food bank in a relatively wealthy area in MD, and there was one heck of a long line today.
And while Mc
October 27, 2008 8:33 PM | Reply | Permalink
Obama is coming to Harrisonburg, VA tomorrow (I live and work here). The rally will be at a facility that holds 8,000 people. What were they thinking?! Why they didn't use the stadium I don't know -- with the crowds he's been pulling it's gonna be some scene.
The last time a presidential candidate came to the Shenandoah Valley, I'm told, was for the '68 election -- ol' Tricky Dick himself, on a brief swing through during the primaries.
I'm looking forward to the mayhem. Bewildered McLamites left and right. Suck it up, fellas!
October 27, 2008 8:39 PM | Reply | Permalink
LOL!
October 27, 2008 8:42 PM | Reply | Permalink
Longest week of my life?
Close, for sure.
I want a landslide. And I'm an increasingly leaning anarchist-libertarian.
Lite. I want the government out of all aspects of life that involve personal decisions that don't impact society at large. Right to life? Please. War on Drugs? Epic fail. Gay marriage? Why would any sane person care?
Et al.
October 27, 2008 8:47 PM | Reply | Permalink
Exactly that.
October 27, 2008 10:48 PM | Reply | Permalink
And I'm an increasingly leaning anarchist-libertarian.
_____
Sheesh!
LEARN the tradional political spectrum: "anarchy" is extremist LEFT wing, "Libertarian" is extremist RIGHT-wing.
BOTH are anti-REGULATION -- REGULATION being LAW. Haven't we had enough of that bullshit thorughout the past 8 years?
October 27, 2008 11:18 PM | Reply | Permalink
I understand what you meant. We are all at times a little too smart for our own good.
Hey peeps, be nice. TPM has gone from 30k to 400k give or take, and I think we should keep that in mind. There is brilliance, and then there is smugness.
October 28, 2008 1:34 AM | Reply | Permalink
Well, anarchists in the first place, don't believe in any system - they are advocates of chaos.
Libertarians mainly want to be liberated from any responsibility for living in a society which actually we are all responsible for each other.
So you manage to confuse me -
October 27, 2008 9:05 PM | Reply | Permalink
Advocates of chaos? You must have them confused with Republicans.
October 27, 2008 9:35 PM | Reply | Permalink
I like you Tena, but you are wrong to say that anarchists strive for chaos.
As George Woodstock points out in his book "Anarchism" the root of the word is from the Greek, anarchos, which means "without ruler." And he further adds that the word "anarchy" can and should be viewed in "the positve condition of being unruled because rule is unnecessary for the preservation of order." He further affirms that anarchary is opposed to nihilism, which "believes in no moral prinicpal and no natural law," and that "the anarchist believes in a moral ugre powerful eonugh to survive the destruction of authority and still to hold society together in the free and natural bonds of fraternity." Rather than being a dark and chaotic state, anarchy is the state of society in which all individuals are freed from the bonadage of an unnatural, imposed authority and through this freedom the natural goodness in the human spirit is released to create a society in harmony.
It is in fact one of the most moral of all political leanings.
As Shelly describes it
The loathsome mask has fallen, the man remains
Scepterless, free, uncircumscribed, but man
Equal, unclassed, tribeless, and nationless,
Exempt from awe, worship, degree, the king
Over himself; just, gentle, wise, but man
Passionless? no, yet free from guilt or pain,
Which were, for his will made or suffered them,
Nor yet exempt, through ruling them like slaves,
From chance, and death, and mutability,
The clogs of that which else might oversoar
The loftiest star of unascended heaven
Pinnacled deep in the intense inane.
Libertarianism, not so much.
but I could be wrong.
But don't slag anarchy, especially if you like John Lennon's song "Imagine."
October 28, 2008 2:08 AM | Reply | Permalink
Woah! You have Montana in the Democratic column!?!? I realize it's only 3 electoral votes, but that state has only gone Democratic once in the last 50 years. Some other polling websites haven't put it in the Democratic column yet: http://www.polltrack.com/presidential
October 27, 2008 9:08 PM | Reply | Permalink
LOL! They still keep talking about Palin's $150K clothes.
http://www.politico.com/blogs/bensmith/1008/Clothing_call_dispute.html?showall
They are so determined to dominate a news cycle on this...
October 27, 2008 9:17 PM | Reply | Permalink
Quick question everyone:
How do they gather exit poll data, i.e. demographics such as race, gender, class, age, etc?
I voted this weekend and wasn't asked any of those questions. Nor where they asked on the voter registration application. So how do they know who is actually voting?
October 27, 2008 9:38 PM | Reply | Permalink
It's just like other polling, but they ask people as they're leaving the polling place. They don't gather the data from everyone, just a sampling as with other polls.
October 27, 2008 9:54 PM | Reply | Permalink
Apparently, some Southern states are required to report the ethnic breakdown of voters (and possibly other demograohics as well) as required by the Voting Rights Act of 1965. Or, so I have read here at TPM. YMMV...
October 27, 2008 11:57 PM | Reply | Permalink
Oh, I see! I've been trying to figure that out for the longest.
Thanks so much!
October 27, 2008 9:57 PM | Reply | Permalink
OT, but OMG, that Megan bitch yelling at Obama's guy over calling out Fox news coverage as B.S., where do they get these women??? She is very pretty and very aggressive, is she too married to a Republican hack? Wow, talk about doing the interview with herself!! Don't watch it BTW, makes your BP go up.
October 27, 2008 10:00 PM | Reply | Permalink
I liked it. I thought Burton did a great job of keeping his cool and letting her make a fool out of herself.
October 27, 2008 10:17 PM | Reply | Permalink
That he did. She made a total ass of herself. But hell, she was so annoying.
October 27, 2008 10:22 PM | Reply | Permalink
So Palin did the PRO America thing again in Asheville NC. I guess she didn't know its the San Fran of the south east.
October 27, 2008 10:35 PM | Reply | Permalink
She doesn't know, and she doesn't care.
October 27, 2008 10:39 PM | Reply | Permalink
if you go to drudge he ask a question. if you read this, you will get his answer: no
October 27, 2008 10:39 PM | Reply | Permalink
You can use this to let The View know E.H. is an idiot and a detriment to their show.
http://abc.go.com/site/contactus.html?lid=ABCCOMGlobalFooter&lpos=CONTACT
October 27, 2008 11:11 PM | Reply | Permalink
Eric Kleefeld is easily the worst "professional" poll analyst in the media, and I would automatically disregard everything he says about this election.
October 27, 2008 11:16 PM | Reply | Permalink
HARSH.
Perhaps you should give evidence rather than just rudeness.
October 27, 2008 11:42 PM | Reply | Permalink
are you serious? he's always been on board with the polls "tightening" narrative, and he's always looking for an angle where McCain could have an advantage, no matter how ridiculous it is. If you want evidence, just go over his posts for the past year.
October 27, 2008 11:57 PM | Reply | Permalink
co-sign. Eric ain't no "polls" expert.
October 28, 2008 12:35 AM | Reply | Permalink
Michelle is on Leno... tune in!
October 27, 2008 11:46 PM | Reply | Permalink
Classy, as usual, and good sense of humor. Gotta love that lady!
October 28, 2008 12:18 AM | Reply | Permalink
Some of the posts on here are getting kind of nasty. Shouldn't we all be a little bit better than that at this point? Frankly, it makes some people hesitant to post I suspect.
October 28, 2008 1:31 AM | Reply | Permalink
Tom P - Thanks
The Rolla Rollercoaster.
October 28, 2008 7:52 AM | Reply | Permalink
Here's a good rundown of races to watch
http://www.inthesetimes.com/article/3978/the_races_to_watch
October 28, 2008 8:05 AM | Reply | Permalink
"These" Joe the Plumbers support Barack Obama and you should too!
October 28, 2008 8:20 AM | Reply | Permalink
The AP and CNN are reporting a massive voter suppression effort in Georgia. Apparently the Secretary of State of Georgia challenged 50,000 voters with a few weeks to the election. Many challenged are minorities. Nothing like those crackers when it comes to suppressing African American votes. They have had generations of experience.
October 28, 2008 8:50 AM | Reply | Permalink
'MY HOLIDAY WITH JOHN McCAIN', authored by Ana Dubey of San Francisco is back up front and center on Neil Young's website. Just click on 'Living With War.' For whatever reason, this article was removed from Young's website for one or two days this past weekend, perhaps to allow time for Young's lawyer to give Dubey's allegations close scrutiny.
All your guesses are as good as mine, folks, as to why it was removed and restored (to it's rightfull place). Ms. Dubey's treatise is highly recommended. The MSM has simply got to face up to the fact that a craven nutjob has been nominated for the U.S. Presidency by the Republican Party.
October 28, 2008 9:11 AM | Reply | Permalink