Polls: Obama Leading In Many Bush States
A new round of Zogby polls shows Barack Obama ahead in six states that George W. Bush won twice, with McCain only leading in two out of the eight polled:
• Virginia: Obama 52%, McCain 45%.
• Ohio: Obama 50%, McCain 45%.
• Nevada: Obama 48%, McCain 44%.
• Missouri: Obama 48%, McCain 46%.
• North Carolina: Obama 50%, McCain 46%.
• Florida: Obama 47%, McCain 47% (Obama 47.2%, McCain 46.9%).
• Indiana: McCain 50%, Obama 44%.
• West Virginia: McCain 50%, Obama 40%.
The six states where Obama is ahead in this set have a combined total of 91 electoral votes. The polls all have a margin of error of ±4.1%.
Meanwhile, the New York Times reports that John McCain and Sarah Palin are spending the vast majority of their remaining time in red states, a sign that they know they are playing on defense.
I'll say again Zogby makes up his numbers. Wait for other polls.
October 27, 2008 9:30 AM | Reply | Permalink
Yea Zogby is a disgrace to polling. I don't care if he showed O up in every state, I would still want conformation.
October 27, 2008 9:59 AM | Reply | Permalink
Zogby once shot a man in Reno just to watch him die.
October 27, 2008 10:42 AM | Reply | Permalink
In 2000, Zogby was the most correct and accurate of all the pollsters. He got 49 of the 50 states exactly right. He only got Florida wrong -- because it was stolen.
One may not like a poll result; but that is not sufficient basis for personally attacking the pollster.
October 27, 2008 10:45 AM | Reply | Permalink
and in the Democratic primaries in 2008, Zogby, to put it bluntly, sucked.
But it's nice to know how accurate the poll was eight years go.
October 27, 2008 10:56 AM | Reply | Permalink
Zogby's big problem these days is that his party ID weighting technique uses data from the last presidential election. In other words, he's assuming that there are exactly the same number of Democrats and Republicans in 2008 as there were in 2004, and then weighting his raw results based on that. Everything we know about voter registration trends between then and now contradicts this assumption.
October 27, 2008 11:20 AM | Reply | Permalink
Well, Fox News, Karl Rove and John McCain just loved them some Zogby yesterday.
'nuff said.
October 27, 2008 10:59 AM | Reply | Permalink
Thee is real math, correct math, and pluperfec math. Wasilla is the math capital of Alaska.
October 27, 2008 11:08 AM | Reply | Permalink
In fitting with Obama's message, they should change the "Red" and the "Blue" states on the TPM Electoral map to the "Fake America" and "Real America" states.
October 27, 2008 9:31 AM | Reply | Permalink
I'm with Kash. Who the heck cares what Zombie says?
October 27, 2008 9:33 AM | Reply | Permalink
McCain is gaining ground in two tracking polls.
Research 2000: 50 (51) 42 (40)
Rasmussen: 51 (52) 46 (44)
What is going on?
October 27, 2008 9:33 AM | Reply | Permalink
If I had to guess, I'd say here is where McCain is going to surge ahead and win.
October 27, 2008 9:36 AM | Reply | Permalink
Yeah, that would certainly explain it.
October 27, 2008 9:44 AM | Reply | Permalink
Who knows. It's only one day. Could be statistical noise. Have to wait and see. But nothing has happened that would be that much of a game changer to continue the trend.
http://pufferfish.typepad.com/
October 27, 2008 9:37 AM | Reply | Permalink
...or it could be the "redistribution" line is starting to resonate...especially with that 2001 radio interview hitting the airwaves...no wonder he wanted everyone to vote early.
October 27, 2008 9:40 AM | Reply | Permalink
Or, alternatively, it could be due to the fact that Obama spent nearly 48 hours off the campaign trail. Question really should be: why can't McCain take advantage of that?
As for the "redistribution" line making the rounds to wingnut radio?
"I share a common philosophy" with George Bush: John McCain. New talking point for the Obama campaign, a week before the election. Thanks, Mac!
October 27, 2008 9:42 AM | Reply | Permalink
Really, that's the gamechanger? Good Luck and also kiss Drudge's ass on your way out. He does give you guys a hard-on every morning.
October 27, 2008 9:42 AM | Reply | Permalink
...not Matt, it was on Bill Bennett Morning in America this morning...
October 27, 2008 9:44 AM | Reply | Permalink
Gamechangers always take roughly 2 weeks to gain traction, right?
October 27, 2008 9:46 AM | Reply | Permalink
You got suckered in with that one too? You probably should listen to the entire interview and NOT the edited one posted on Drudge.
October 27, 2008 9:50 AM | Reply | Permalink
that would require taking an interest in it as something other than useful propaganda.
October 27, 2008 9:56 AM | Reply | Permalink
reeling
October 27, 2008 11:41 AM | Reply | Permalink
Chillax, people! Let's wait and see...
October 27, 2008 9:39 AM | Reply | Permalink
If you look at the numbers you should notice that the totals are increasing. R2K from 91 to 92 and Rass from 96 to 97. The undecideds are starting to move. Couple that with the natural statistical movement (+/-3%) and you have your answer.
The real question is whether there will be sufficient movement in the battlegrounds to put McCain over the top in VA, CO and PA. I don't see it. Maybe in North Carolina, Florida, Ohio, Indiana and Missouri, but Obama doesn't need any of those states to win.
October 27, 2008 9:39 AM | Reply | Permalink
McCain's smears/hatefests working, I suppose. I don't think they will make enough of a difference.
October 27, 2008 9:43 AM | Reply | Permalink
If you're worried about National polls (which you shouldn't be in a Electoral College system, check the trend, and cease being alarmed. Anytime I see bad news, I look at this trend, and then at the individual State polls, and I feel better.
http://www.pollster.com/polls/us/08-us-pres-ge-mvo.php
Also, Chuck Todd mapped out an Obama path to 270 today that doesn't include OH, FL or PA. That's some reassuring stuff, right there.
This scenario isn't far fetched at all, and includes the Bush States VA, NV, NM and CO. Obama's ground game, the combination of the VA Exurbs and the Inner Mt. West, Hispanic vote, etc., is enough to get the job done. This is allowing for Appalachia to rear its ugly head at the last moment, and for FL to remain a basket case.
He has fundamentally altered the map, and can win this in any number of ways.
October 27, 2008 9:43 AM | Reply | Permalink
TPM:
Today's Polltracker average of 10 polls includes two Zogby polls, two Rasmussen polls, and two Res. 2000 polls. Did you forget to delete yesterday's results. What gives?
October 27, 2008 9:56 AM | Reply | Permalink
I'm not 1--% sure of their methodology, but I THINK that while they post the new polls ASAP, they don't actually calculate their new average until the ABC poll comes out in the early evening.
October 27, 2008 10:20 AM | Reply | Permalink
Stop FUCKING panicking. My goodness gracious Democrats panick from ANY movement.
October 27, 2008 10:02 AM | Reply | Permalink
Ah, thanks for the soothing, calming words. I feel better already...
October 27, 2008 10:07 AM | Reply | Permalink
Any time bro.
October 27, 2008 10:16 AM | Reply | Permalink
Oh God. Put me under until the 5th.
I'm a little worried about fraud and voter suppression. But, I really don't think McShame can make it. The fraud and suppression would have to be massive and obvious, and therefore open to legal action after the election. Obama won't roll over and play dead like Gore.
October 27, 2008 10:54 AM | Reply | Permalink
This week is going to be interminable.
October 27, 2008 9:37 AM | Reply | Permalink
Yep.
October 27, 2008 9:40 AM | Reply | Permalink
Nope -- only if you let it!
October 27, 2008 10:16 AM | Reply | Permalink
Come on...this is why we chose this as a hobby...this is the best time of the season!
October 27, 2008 9:42 AM | Reply | Permalink
It'll come crashing down, soon. No matter what the results, I'm not going to know what to do with myself on the fifth!
October 27, 2008 9:49 AM | Reply | Permalink
Go back to work?
October 27, 2008 11:04 AM | Reply | Permalink
There's a very funny article about all of the angst
we're all feeling here. It's by Larry David.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/larry-david/waiting-for-nov-4th_b_137029.html
October 27, 2008 11:09 AM | Reply | Permalink
Anyone catch David Schuster yesterday when MSNBC was reporting about the 7 Al Qaida members supposedly caught by Special Forces - he outright asked if one of them was Bin Laden and the Pentagon spokesman had a slight smile and said they could not comment due to "security reasons."
I swear, if they caught him and are holding off on the announcement until after Obama's speech on Wednesday...
But the fact that no other news source has picked up on it is a sign the above isn't what it seems.
October 27, 2008 9:45 AM | Reply | Permalink
I don't see how holding him till after the speech would hurt Obama. If Bin Laden were caught, the airwaves would be packed with "Special Reports" for days...no one would watch Obama's show anyway. I think if they'd caught him it would be like when they got Saddam...
October 27, 2008 9:50 AM | Reply | Permalink
If they caught Bin Laden, it would be out NOW. No reason to hold something like that especially given the global financial meltdown that continually steps on the Republicans attempts to change the subject.
Also, SFC Wallace, given your hard on for the latest "socialist" talking point, don't you think it odd that the Financial Times would endorse a socialist? Or is the Financial Times a socialist rag?
October 27, 2008 9:54 AM | Reply | Permalink
Simple explanation: capitalists will invest in ANYTHING, including socialism, so long as they can make money out of it.
As for SFCWallace: I thought the military educated its own to who our allies and enemies are. Some of our best allies have socialist economies. And are also democracies. And are also monarchies.
SFCWallace is a proudly stupid individual who substitutes RAH! RAH! emotionalism for being relevant.
October 27, 2008 11:10 AM | Reply | Permalink
Proud? Yes. Stupid? I guess that's a matter of opinion; I'd like to think not. Rah Rah? If that were the case, would I be here or on another site?
October 27, 2008 11:53 AM | Reply | Permalink
But it's just like Republicans to assume how outright stupid the average voter is and how they would merely find it a coincidence that they caught Bin Laden one week before the election and the very, very, very end of Bush's term.
No one is that stupi...oh wait, all it took was a Bin Laden video four days before the election last time.
October 27, 2008 9:54 AM | Reply | Permalink
Um, I know this sounds like revisionist history, because the conventional wisdom is that the Osama tape sealed the deal for Bush, but when you look at the actual polls, it's hard to accept that argument.
From RCP, 2004:
Pre-Osama: Bush +5, +3, +5.
Post (roughly speaking): Bush +6, +3, +3, +1, TIE, +1,Kerry+2, Bush +1, Bush+4, Kerry +1...you get the picture.
I know that video is viewed as a "game-changer". I don't know that there's a shred of evidence that supports that.
October 27, 2008 10:10 AM | Reply | Permalink
That tape is a game changer only if it was Osama bin Laden who stole OH for Bushit.
October 27, 2008 11:13 AM | Reply | Permalink
The smile might have meant: "Don't be silly." If there was a rumor that bL had been captured, the media would be magnifying it a thousand times with demands that the Gov't come clean and let us know.
BTW, I saw nothing about this in the news. Do you have a link to anything?
October 27, 2008 10:06 AM | Reply | Permalink
Doubtful. (about the link).
October 27, 2008 10:13 AM | Reply | Permalink
Are you talking about the raid into Syria? They think bL's high-tailed it from Afganistan to Syria? That doesn't sound very plausible, doesn't it?
October 27, 2008 10:15 AM | Reply | Permalink
Unforunately, I don't - it was on Schuster's segment on MSNBC yesterday afternoon. Like I said above, I haven't seen anything anywhere else, either. It just stunned me a little when Schuster outright asked the Pentagon rep for more information on who they caught in Syria and if one of them was Bin Laden, the guy just cracked a slight smile and did a "No comment" thingy instead of outright saying no.
More and more I'm starting to think this is a bluff on their part to keep people guessing, but then again, if they want to completely erase any attention Obama gets from his prime time speech Wednesday night, the thing to do is wait until Thursday morning.
That is, if they have anything to announce...
October 27, 2008 10:21 AM | Reply | Permalink
You've been saying the same thing for at least two weeks about bin Laden, and about the military knowing something about it. I've never been able to find a syllable about it except for what you say.
At this point, without any links, I have to say I'm a bit skeptical. I'm sorry.
October 27, 2008 10:31 AM | Reply | Permalink
??????????? This is the FIRST TIME I've mentioned Bin Laden's name in ANY post - you obviously have me mistaken for another poster on here. You've asked me for links before, but I've never mentioned Bin Laden on here.
Sorry for bursting your "gotcha" bubble.
October 27, 2008 10:49 AM | Reply | Permalink
It's not a gotcha comment at all. You've made repeated references to the military having some sort of bin Laden/Al Qaeda card up its sleeve, and you always reference MSNBC. I've asked links, and your answer has been "I already provided them".
I'm a link person. If someone makes a statement that seems at odds with what's out there, I like a link to it. If that seems "gotcha" to you, perhaps DailyKos is more your speed.
October 27, 2008 10:59 AM | Reply | Permalink
I prefer patties myself...
October 27, 2008 11:05 AM | Reply | Permalink
???
October 27, 2008 11:25 AM | Reply | Permalink
You said you were a link person...weren't you talking about sausage? I'll take a closer look at the post.
October 27, 2008 11:55 AM | Reply | Permalink
Hah!
Went right by me......
October 27, 2008 12:12 PM | Reply | Permalink
Actually, these are fairly close to RCP's averages (with the exception of Indiana, in particular):
Virginia
RCP: Obama 51.7, McCain 44.5
Zog: Obama 52%, McCain 45%
Ohio
RCP: Obama 49.9, McCain 43.9
Zog: Obama 50%, McCain 45%
Nevada
RCP: Obama 49.0, McCain 45.5
Zog: Obama 48%, McCain 44%.
Missouri
RCP: Obama 47.0, McCain 46.0
Zog: Obama 48%, McCain 46%
North Carolina
RCP: Obama 48.8, McCain 47.3
Zog: Obama 50%, McCain 46%
Florida
RCP: Obama 47.7, McCain 45.8
Zog: Obama 47.2, McCain 46.9
Indiana
RCP: Obama 46.8, McCain 46.5
Zog: Obama 44%, McCain 50%
West Virginia
RCP: Obama 42.2, McCain 50.2
Zog: Obama 40%, McCain 50%
October 27, 2008 9:46 AM | Reply | Permalink
Zogby are pulling numbers out of their hats.
October 27, 2008 9:47 AM | Reply | Permalink
Zogby is sitting on his hat???
October 27, 2008 10:27 AM | Reply | Permalink
So, Let's have a pool....lol....which of these states does Obama win? Those who get it right get a prize from TPM? Eric?
My prediction:
Obama wins Virginia, Florida, Nevada, North Carolina and MISSOURI!
October 27, 2008 9:53 AM | Reply | Permalink
I agree with you on all of those, except Florida...that'll be a tight one and we all know how smoothly things go in Florida each election cycle.
Hopefully, Florida won't even matter by the time they call it.
October 27, 2008 9:58 AM | Reply | Permalink
We will win all of them except for WV.
October 27, 2008 10:07 AM | Reply | Permalink
BigO is also gonna have a tough time in BC, AB, SK, MB, ON and QU.
October 27, 2008 11:00 AM | Reply | Permalink
He'd never win QU after admitting he can't speak French...
October 27, 2008 11:57 AM | Reply | Permalink
I'm sorry to report that McStain has already won the election. All we need to do now is vote.
Remember, it's not who votes, it's who counts the votes. And we know who counts the votes.
October 27, 2008 9:56 AM | Reply | Permalink
O please knock it off.
They can't steal this election - not with Obama this far ahead and everybody and their dog saying he's going win and the Repugs are headed for a massacre.
October 27, 2008 10:12 AM | Reply | Permalink
Given Zogby's internal re party ID which IIRC is based on the 2004 turnout, I want to believe we are in a better position than their numbers suggest...
October 27, 2008 10:02 AM | Reply | Permalink
CNN just said this morning that as many as 30,000 voters in Colorado will be turned away at the polls due to illegal voter purging by the state's Election Board head - who is, of course, a Republican.
One reason people were taken off the registration list is if they were late on one credit card payment, even by one day, within the last year...ILLEGAL!!
I just wonder if this same reason is shared for both Dem and Republican voters or just Dems.
October 27, 2008 10:02 AM | Reply | Permalink
Wow. This is a prime example of why our democracy can't survive with a bunch of wacky partisan Attorney Generals. The fox (no pun intended) is watching the henhouse.
October 27, 2008 10:06 AM | Reply | Permalink
Well, the glass is both half empty and half full.
I worry as you do. But there's been massive voter registration. I doubt the purging will compensate for the number of people excited by Obama. As such, a large turnout should compensate for large suppression. But . . .
October 27, 2008 11:04 AM | Reply | Permalink
I'll split with ya --
You can have the empty half . . .
October 27, 2008 11:22 AM | Reply | Permalink
Or you know, it could be Monday morning
Ras 10/20 - 50-46
10/27 - 51-46
Zogby 10/20 - 50-45
10/27 - 50-45
Except for Kos having the race at 5 points on one day Sunday, the other poll are stable as can be.
Obama is somewhere between 50-52 and McCain is somewhere between 44-46. We are headed to somewhere between a 4 and 8 point Obama Victory.
As for Chuck Todd's analysis, Obama has had 270 since 8/24 when he took the lead in Colorado in the poll of polls. Obama has never trailed McCain in Iowa or New Mexico and has grown his lead in Colorado from 3 points a month ago to 7 points right now.
Kerry + Iowa and New Mexico and Colorado > 270. But it makes for crappy news to admit that more than likely Ohio, Virginia, Florida, and North Carolina are gravy for Obama.
Relax folks. 8 more days.
October 27, 2008 10:03 AM | Reply | Permalink
Morning - I love your attitude, Jorge.
Obama owns New Mexico from what I can tell - and Colorado, voter purges or not.
8 more days = god, I'm going to have a nervous breakdown -
October 27, 2008 10:10 AM | Reply | Permalink
There was also local news (in Chicago) flyers were distributed in parts of Indiana (Indianapolis and northwest Indiana) saying the election was delayed until November 11th (Veteran's Day).
Take a look at those two locations and see if you can tell the reason why those two locations in the state are being targeted with misinformation like this.
A friend of mine living in Harrisburg, PA also said similar flyers are being found throughout Philadelphia.
October 27, 2008 10:16 AM | Reply | Permalink
Here's what I think ChiJoe - I think African American voters are well-armed with the information they need this time - there has been the biggest GOTV effort ever and there has been a massive voter information effort.
October 27, 2008 10:19 AM | Reply | Permalink
Tena - Agreed!
CT Voter - was on the local news last night, but they may have it on their site. www.abc7chicago.com
October 27, 2008 10:29 AM | Reply | Permalink
Thanks.
October 27, 2008 10:36 AM | Reply | Permalink
Do you have a link to the Chicago local news story?
October 27, 2008 10:19 AM | Reply | Permalink
Dude - I was watching one of the MTV channels Saturday night - they were rerunning "Drumline," which is a movie about the incredible marching bands from AA colleges. MTV ran a graphic the whole movie up on one corner of the screen, that reminded people to vote and they ran spots about voting. I've never seen anything like this -
I know very well that community organizers all over the country have been pushing the GOTV effort and voter rights efforts to get people informed.
October 27, 2008 10:29 AM | Reply | Permalink
QUESTION:
McCain needs money badly right now so way hasnt his wife, who is worth over $100 million, given money to her husband's campaign?
October 27, 2008 10:17 AM | Reply | Permalink
Because he can't accept it. He's limited to the public financing.
She could, conceivable, give it to the RNC who could then use it on McCain's behalf, but I'm not aware of the legalities involved with a candidate's spouse contributing to a national committee.
October 27, 2008 10:21 AM | Reply | Permalink
Simple, it's against the law.
October 27, 2008 10:24 AM | Reply | Permalink
When has that ever stopped them?
October 27, 2008 10:31 AM | Reply | Permalink
good point!
Since he used songs from recording artist without the courtesy of a simple may I please? what would stop him from accepting a few dollars from his wife. Especially if those dollars had a whole bunch of 0's the the right side of the number 1?
October 27, 2008 11:05 AM | Reply | Permalink
Zogby is the same person who on the eve of super tuesday had Obama ahead in California by 13 pts. Hillary defeated Barack by 10 or 12 pts---so, Zogby's polls are meaningless.
October 27, 2008 10:23 AM | Reply | Permalink
What stations has Obama bought time for on Wednesday - I know CBS was one of them...what are the others?
October 27, 2008 10:30 AM | Reply | Permalink
These are Zogby/Reuters phone polls, not Zogby's horrible Internet polls. That said, take them with a grain of salt. This is coming from a guy whose phone-based (and also Reuters sponsored) daily tracker had Obama up by 10 mid-week but then only up by 5 by this weekend. It's also from a guy whose party ID and voter demo breakdown is based on 2004 results. This ain't 2004.
Re: tightening in the early tracking polls today. Rasmussen did note that Obama is +1 over last Monday...and as others have noted, Obama always seems to have his worst tracking poll numbers come right after the weekend. (except for Gallup, where they show up on Wednesday/Thursday, for some reason)
I am a Rasmussen subscriber and the internals look pretty much the same as they did yesterday and the day before except for among white women. Two days ago, Obama had a 1pt lead among that demo. Yesterday, he was down by 1. Today, McCain leads by 5, 51-46, among white women voters. That's a huge swing and McCain's biggest lead among that group in a while, going back to mid-September. Calling Obama a socialist who wants to redistribute wealth isn't really going to swing white women voters. But a story about a poor little white girl getting assaulted and fondled by a big, scary black Obama supporter would. I'm betting that a lot of folks polled on Saturday and even early Sunday (or maybe even later) weren't aware that the original story had been discredited and that it was all a huge hoax committed by a McCain volunteer and promoted (originally, before it was proven false) by folks in the McCain campaign. If that's the case, these white women will probably swing back to Obama. And because they were duped, they may swing back to stay.
Even so, if McCain is leading Obama among white women voters by 5 or less going into election day, he's toast. Didn't Bush win that demographic by 11 or more in 2004?
October 27, 2008 10:33 AM | Reply | Permalink
Hmmm. Most plausible explanation I've seen yet, though the (reported) movement is so small it hardly seems to need an explanation.
October 27, 2008 11:09 AM | Reply | Permalink
And don't ignore banked votes - If Obama wins 30% of the electorate by 54-44 before election day, what does McCain have to do on election day to win?
Seriously, someone please tell me? I got a C- in stats. All I know is that McCain needs to do better than 50.1 vs 49.9.
October 27, 2008 10:39 AM | Reply | Permalink
Speaking of banked votes, so far in Bernalillo County here (ABQ), they reported last night that 34,0000 Democrats have voted vs. 15,000 Repugs.
October 27, 2008 10:47 AM | Reply | Permalink
That's cuz we have jobs...we can vote when the polls are open before and after work.
October 27, 2008 11:58 AM | Reply | Permalink
15,000 Repugs? That's a lot of plumbers. And should we use the word 'banked'? It just seems tarnished by Wall Street right now!
October 27, 2008 12:12 PM | Reply | Permalink
ABC, NBC, CBS and FOX. Don't know about the cable ones like WGN, Lifetime etc.
October 27, 2008 10:49 AM | Reply | Permalink
WGN's considered a cable network outside of Chicago? Whoa! Out here it's just a local station.
October 27, 2008 10:52 AM | Reply | Permalink
I saw some rundown this weekend that 11% of all registered voters have case votes so far - I thought it would be higher than that, but it's still a great thing to know.
By election day, it's assumed that 30% will have voted early. As long as that eases congestion in the poll lines November 4th, then that's a biggie!
October 27, 2008 10:55 AM | Reply | Permalink
In North Carolina, if you have not already voted: be advised that even if you vote a straight ticket, you must vote for President separately. That choice is on the section directly above the partisan offices section.
The ballot is designed to be deliberately deceptive. NC has considtenly undervoted in past elections because of it. The NYT has an interesting piece and an editorial about it this morning.
Be aware.
October 27, 2008 12:25 PM | Reply | Permalink
I made a point to count Obama vs. McCain signs today when I had to make a trek that took me through a good part of the Triangle. I counted three Obama signs vs 42 McCain signs. Maybe McCain has a better ground grew here, or maybe they are pulling signs, but it terrified me. My stomach hurts when I think about the possibility of the republicans pulling this off. Oh, I should mention that I also counted 13 confederate battle flags along the way.
October 27, 2008 12:32 PM | Reply | Permalink
Well I went to the race in Atlanta Sunday...can you believe I didn't see 1 Obama sticker....and when we came out there were NObama bumper stickers unde all of the windsheild wipers!
October 27, 2008 1:42 PM | Reply | Permalink
Sorry - I'm in NC. Forgot to clarify that.
October 27, 2008 12:36 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'm concerned that we will see the same drag on the poll numbers that we saw in the primaries because of the Appalachia voters - specifically in OH and PA. Not that O couldn't win without both those, but it may get alot closer...
October 28, 2008 6:26 AM | Reply | Permalink