Polls: Obama Has Solid Lead In Virginia
Three new polls have now found Barack Obama with a clear and decisive lead in Virginia, bringing him one crucial step closer to a majority in the Electoral College:
• SurveyUSA: Obama 52%, McCain 43%, outside of the ±3.9% margin of error, not significantly different from a 53%-43% Obama lead from three weeks ago. Nine percent of respondents have already voted, giving Obama a 67%-30% majority, and he's ahead 50%-44% among the remaining 91% of likely voters.
• Zogby: Obama 52%, McCain 45%, with a ±4.1% margin of error. There is no other recent Zogby phone poll for comparison.
• Washington Post: Obama 52%, McCain 44%, with a ±3.5% margin of error, compared to a 49%-46% Obama lead a month ago.
The early-vote number from SurveyUSA shows just what a hole John McCain is in. If he loses the early vote in a given state, he has to not only win the vote on Election Day, but win it by a large enough majority to overcome his early-vote deficit.
If John McCain can't turn things around in Virginia, then he really has to sweep the big three swing states of Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania if he is to have any hope of winning. And the public polls in Pennsylvania haven't pointed towards any real chance of such a strategy working.
If McCain can't win Virginia he sure as hell isn't going to win Pennsylvania.
October 27, 2008 1:19 PM | Reply | Permalink
Good comment.
October 27, 2008 1:27 PM | Reply | Permalink
If McCain can't win NC, then he sure as hell won't win VA.
October 27, 2008 1:27 PM | Reply | Permalink
Also good comment! Ha-hah!
October 27, 2008 2:16 PM | Reply | Permalink
If McCain is only two points ahead in Arizona, for Chrissake, then he sure as hell isn't winning NC.
October 27, 2008 3:22 PM | Reply | Permalink
If McCain can't even hold onto a state.........wait, it doesn't get much worse than being barely ahead in Arizona.
October 27, 2008 5:22 PM | Reply | Permalink
That is great (though not quite helping alleviate my nervousness... yet). Also see the newest entry at 538, "Yes, Virginia, You Are Obama's Firewall."
October 27, 2008 1:21 PM | Reply | Permalink
Feelin' the heat yet Johnny? You said you had game! Bring it, bitch!
And your little dog Sarah too!
Now be gone before a house falls on you!
October 27, 2008 1:22 PM | Reply | Permalink
Wow. And this from a state that almost elected Ollie North senator in 1994. (Results were Chuck Robb, incumbent, 46, North 43.)
October 27, 2008 1:23 PM | Reply | Permalink
Eric, why are you still peddling FL, OH & PA will win it for JM, when MSNBC's Chuck Todd (per your own Greg) has already declared that Obama can win even without these 3 states ?
October 27, 2008 1:25 PM | Reply | Permalink
Exactly. Eric's not very good at analytical writing on national AND state polls.
October 27, 2008 1:26 PM | Reply | Permalink
He didn't say he would win if he won those states. He said to have a hope of winning he needs to win FL, OH, PA. There's a difference.
October 27, 2008 1:33 PM | Reply | Permalink
I wrote on another thread,
Go to this site and draw yourself of an electoral map, flipping the states red and blue As you go along. http://projects.washingtonpost.com/2008/pick-your-president/
Give Gramps and Klondike Barbie the benefit of the doubt -- throw some red ones their way (even though if they met you on the street they'd call you a terrorist like they do.)
When you're done, look up and see who got 270 and who didn't. You begin to see the predicament the bad guys have gotten themselves in here! Well that's what they get for meeting terrorists on the street! Anyhow, try it!
Ha-hah!
October 27, 2008 1:38 PM | Reply | Permalink
WOW. All I gave Obama were the 2004 Kerry states (including PA), plus NM, CO, and Iowa, and bingo!!!! 273 EC votes. Wow.
CT and Tena, relax.
It's time to pull this out again.......
http://punditkitchen.com/2008/09/05/political-pictures-barack-obama-chill-out-got-this/
October 27, 2008 1:48 PM | Reply | Permalink
How 'bout that, huh?!
Ha-hah! Glad you had fun!
October 27, 2008 2:08 PM | Reply | Permalink
I love that one every time.
October 27, 2008 2:28 PM | Reply | Permalink
If Obama keeps the Kerry states and wins Virginia, he will be the next president of the United States.
October 27, 2008 1:26 PM | Reply | Permalink
Obama currently enjoys double-digit leads in IA and every Kerry state except NH. Those add up to 268 EV. McCain would have to win EVERY OTHER STATE to win.
October 27, 2008 1:30 PM | Reply | Permalink
Oops. Make that + Virgina's 13 EV to equal 268.
October 27, 2008 1:43 PM | Reply | Permalink
And PPP had it Obama by nine pts. on Sat. So the range of Obama lead is solidly established and he is well over 50%.
October 27, 2008 1:26 PM | Reply | Permalink
I am nervous like hell. And there are 8 days left.
I can't wait for this to be over.
Also, i have noticed that some polls include "already voted"
does that mean that the "already voted" should be removed from the poll?
October 27, 2008 1:27 PM | Reply | Permalink
Has anybody noticed that Eric's picture of VA looks like a fallen Christmas tree?
October 27, 2008 1:28 PM | Reply | Permalink
That was exactly my first thought.
October 27, 2008 1:30 PM | Reply | Permalink
Looks like somebody oughta water it right quick!
October 27, 2008 1:33 PM | Reply | Permalink
I didn't see that til you mentioned it - it sure does.
October 27, 2008 1:45 PM | Reply | Permalink
Cue the handwringing over Pennsylvania in 5...4...3...
October 27, 2008 1:28 PM | Reply | Permalink
And senator Obama is up in the Gallup Likely voters...
October 27, 2008 1:29 PM | Reply | Permalink
And McCain has sent Palin to Virginia. It's Palin that is really hurting McCain in Virginia. Military families look at her and cringe.
October 27, 2008 1:31 PM | Reply | Permalink
What, are you saying that Palin doesn't have the experience to be commander in chief?
Hey, she's the CIC of the Alaska National Guard, dog gone it!
Being serious for a moment, the thought of Sarah Palin with the nuclear codes makes my blood freeze.
October 27, 2008 1:47 PM | Reply | Permalink
My mother, the most republican of all republicans, HATES Palin. My mother may be a product of her generation, but she is damn smart, and she can spot a phony a mile away.
October 27, 2008 1:39 PM | Reply | Permalink
Can I enjoy this lead?
I think Obama has Virginia. I think McLame is cooked.
October 27, 2008 1:42 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yes you can. There was another poll out today from VCU, which has Obama up 51-40. I think Virginia is out of reach for McCain (both the real and fake Virginias).
October 27, 2008 1:44 PM | Reply | Permalink
:)
October 27, 2008 1:49 PM | Reply | Permalink
You betcha. I've been traveling to Northern VA with Marylanders for 3 months doing voter registration and canvassing. I have noticed that some streets that were once lined with McCain signs (not McCain/Palin, so that says something about when they might have changed their minds) are now lined with Obama signs. Warner is also doing really well, and he is helping Obama as much as Obama is helping him. Northern VA is home to many military families and Palin scares the crap out of them. It's in the bag. VA is for Obama (and lovers!)
October 27, 2008 2:04 PM | Reply | Permalink
As to your point A, I would kindl aver,
YUP.
And as to point B,
likewise, YUP.
YUP,
YUP,
YUP!
October 27, 2008 2:11 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yepp!
October 27, 2008 1:47 PM | Reply | Permalink
Tena, Its time for this one again.......
http://punditkitchen.com/2008/09/05/political-pictures-barack-obama-chill-out-got-this/
October 27, 2008 1:50 PM | Reply | Permalink
That's on my desktop these days.
I do love it - thanks for posting it again.
October 27, 2008 2:04 PM | Reply | Permalink
Ok, ok, I'll stop worrying. NOT.
I'm a behavioral scientist who is gripped by superstition, even though the rational side of me appreciated how silly that is, but I just can't shake it these days.
As I said in a reply to Tena, y'all have to understand that I'm the reason that the Red Sox beat the Yankees in the ALCS in 2004. Every time the Yankees started doing well, I turned the TV off.
Need I say more?
October 27, 2008 2:10 PM | Reply | Permalink
Nope you needn't. I respect superstition.
My husband was a ball player - the most superstitious bunch on earth. He is the world's least gullible person and kind of a James Materialist when it comes to what he believes is real - but he was the most superstitious person on earth when it came to playing ball.
If his left contact didn't go in on the first try - bad luck. If certain little things weren't arranged just so - bad luck on the field.
:)
October 27, 2008 2:14 PM | Reply | Permalink
I love black cats!
Now for this musical interlude...
When you believe in things
that you don't understand,
Then you suffer,
Superstition ain't the way...
October 27, 2008 3:36 PM | Reply | Permalink
Interesting that 9% have already voted. There's no early voting in VA (just absentee.) My understanding is that the Obama team pushes absentee ballots for the hard to reach rural voters. Either they've been wildly successful or those numbers are strange. On the other hand, its kind of hard to misinterpret the question "Have you already voted?"
October 27, 2008 1:51 PM | Reply | Permalink
I"m going with wildly successful.
They've been wildly successful in their ground game and GOTV effort so far - we won't see the end result until next week, but I still think that wildly successful is exactly right.
They know AA turnout will be huge and that it's a key to winning and they also know that those are votes that are the hardest to get and to get counted.
October 27, 2008 2:11 PM | Reply | Permalink
Its to safe to say Virginia will go blue.
October 27, 2008 1:53 PM | Reply | Permalink
Oh, man! The closing argument speech was just awesome. If that doesn't get anyone fired up, that person is dead cold. One week, people. Only one week. This is not over yet, let's get up, get out and work hard to win.
October 27, 2008 1:55 PM | Reply | Permalink
THIS IS.....
October 27, 2008 1:55 PM | Reply | Permalink
GREAT NEWS
October 27, 2008 1:57 PM | Reply | Permalink
EXCELLENT...
October 27, 2008 1:58 PM | Reply | Permalink
NEWS...
October 27, 2008 1:59 PM | Reply | Permalink
FOR THE WORLD!!
October 27, 2008 2:09 PM | Reply | Permalink
There are thousands upon thousands of volunteers blanketing the state, by canvass on weekends and by phone all week long -- not only from Virginia, but plenty from D.C. and Maryland, too. It is stunning to behold. The ground game in VA is so great that if the polls showed the race tied, I'd bet serious money Obama wins by 3-4 points. As it is, of course, he's got a much larger cushion.
October 27, 2008 1:55 PM | Reply | Permalink
Moose, you are so right. I was there from Maryland Saturday and it was like a party--so many canvassers that we were getting in each other's way. But most people whose doors we knocked on didn't mind. Someone had made door signs in one neighborhood that said "Thanks for your hard work and for stopping by, but we are already voting for Barack, so need to knock."
October 27, 2008 2:13 PM | Reply | Permalink
My hands are shaking with excitement. I'm heading over to fivethirtyeight to see what McLame's win percentage is down to now...
Holy mother of....3.3% is McCain's win percentage now! How many expressions can we come up with that mean "toast?"
October 27, 2008 2:02 PM | Reply | Permalink
Le Maverick Flambé?
POW Extra Crispy?
Tostados comadreja?
October 27, 2008 2:13 PM | Reply | Permalink
I saw this tidbit of info on FirstRead (MSNBC) that backs up what someone from Texas was saying yesterday/last nite:
Obama takin' Texas? Now that's a Whopper!
October 27, 2008 2:10 PM | Reply | Permalink
He may not take it - what they're saying is that McLame's win in Texas will be by a very small margin if he wins it.
Our AA population and our Hispanic population in Texas could determine the election there - and that would mean Obama wins Texas.
If they get the vote out - now that Hispanic voters have gone to Obama - we have a chance in Texas. We really do - it's an Hispanic majority state and there is also a very large AA population.
I love my state for its diversity these days - it may not look like it, but it's very diverse and I love our population for that reason.
October 27, 2008 2:25 PM | Reply | Permalink
Has anyone else noticed how some MSM organizations are reporting much lower electoral numbers for Obama, than say RCP?
ABC's electoral map has Virginia and Colorado as toss-up states, even though they are leaning or even solid for Obama.
http://abcnews.go.com/
A few possible reasons might be:
1. Excitement generates hits. If the election seems like a done deal, fewer people will go to ABC's web site and/or tune into their news programs.
2. They want to make it seem as though John McCain has a chance to win, otherwise, his more tepid supporters might stay home on election day, increasing Obama's margins.
Any thoughts?
October 27, 2008 2:10 PM | Reply | Permalink
It's to keep the interest at fever pitch.
Reminiscent of the long primary battle. At some point, it became extremely unlikely that Clinton could ever win, but you'd never know that by listening to the major news organization.
October 27, 2008 2:33 PM | Reply | Permalink
The only person I can even remember admitting that was Chris Matthews.
October 27, 2008 5:37 PM | Reply | Permalink
Since the VA polls close at 7PM on Nov 4th, this may all be just about over before I get home from my Son's Football practice that Tuesday.
October 27, 2008 2:10 PM | Reply | Permalink
Thanks for the tip. I'm on the other side of the world and I've got to time this shit right!
October 27, 2008 2:14 PM | Reply | Permalink
So I have a question. What percentage of the "undecideds" are "third party" voters? I rarely see the other candidates emphasized in the polls, but when I have it seems their inclusion often makes things look worse for McCain.
October 27, 2008 2:12 PM | Reply | Permalink
A word about "undecideds" from David Sedaris:
October 27, 2008 2:19 PM | Reply | Permalink
Ah yes, I remember. I had the lasagna.
October 27, 2008 2:22 PM | Reply | Permalink
I can picture an scene at a restaurant on election day morning. The waitress casually strolls up to my table and in a soft, sensual voice asks if I would prefer for breakfast...Eggs Benedict or shit and a shingle.
October 27, 2008 2:28 PM | Reply | Permalink
This is, indirectly, my point. How many of the supposedly undecideds are, in fact people who won't vote Obama but have most definitely decided that Bob Barr or someone else is a better choice than the platter of crap-and-glass?
October 27, 2008 2:29 PM | Reply | Permalink
...though I do appreciate the jokes.
October 27, 2008 2:38 PM | Reply | Permalink
Classic.
For some reason, this
is reminiscent of Paul Krugman's lament about what media organizations think is "balanced" coverage. Democrats prefer chicken. Republicans prefer shit with bits of broken glass. Which side will Americans choose?
October 27, 2008 2:37 PM | Reply | Permalink
Some of those who might otherwise like crap may order something that won't cause their mouths to bleed. ;)
October 27, 2008 2:41 PM | Reply | Permalink
Damn! Those Dentrassi really do hate the Vogons!
Seriously, while it's become fashionable to mock the undecideds, how are they any worse than those who have already chosen the platter of shit with bits of broken glass?
October 27, 2008 3:47 PM | Reply | Permalink
Speaking for myself, thanks for this and apologies to CT for a very sloppy misread of his/her comment. I asked a simple question and failed in trying to use humor to steer back to it. The end point was, well, not a good one.
October 27, 2008 11:17 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'm reading an article on the HYTimes about Bill Ayres. He participated in a symposium on educational justice Sunday afternoon.
For a man being labeled a terrorist by the McCain campaign, he lived up to his reputation and made an alarming statement:
I guess he deserves to be called a terrorist for actually believing the US is a participatory government supported by civilian participation.
October 27, 2008 2:18 PM | Reply | Permalink
NYtimes, not HYTimes
October 27, 2008 2:22 PM | Reply | Permalink
I dunno. Sorta like the phonology of "high Times".
October 27, 2008 2:27 PM | Reply | Permalink
They're still in business, but I think they're still keeping a low profile especially on the political scene. Ya know they don't want to be accused of influence peddling.
October 27, 2008 2:32 PM | Reply | Permalink
HYmie Times? Is that you, Jesse... ?
October 27, 2008 2:32 PM | Reply | Permalink
"I guess he deserves to be called a terrorist for actually believing the US is a participatory government supported by civilian participation."
Actually he's called a terrorist because he set off bombs at the Pentagon, the Capitol, a Police Station in NYC and the home of a Judge while the family was sleeping inside. http://www.city-journal.org/2008/eon0430jm.html
Not that the truth matters to you...
October 27, 2008 3:31 PM | Reply | Permalink
Virginia has "in person absentee voting" which is essentially early voting, only you have to give a reason. The reasons are broad enough to apply to most people - they include, for example, travelling outside your county or city to work on that day, something that most people in the DC suburbs do. You can vote "absentee" on voting machines at a number of locations open weekdays until 8:00 pm and Saturdays until 5. My spouse and I voted on Saturday, October 18, waiting less than ten miuntes. It felt great! I've been pushing it while out canvassing and with everyone I know.
If you live in VA. check your county or city's website for in person absentee voting information. Avoid the lines on Nov. 4
October 27, 2008 2:30 PM | Reply | Permalink
@ Flanders - re: Virginia "early voting" - Virginia doesn't acutally have "early voting" per se, BUT - it does have early "in person absentee" voting at several sites in each county, with very lenient standards (just working, i.e. commuting, outside of the County on Nov. 4 qualififes.) So, the 9% figure may not be "rural" absentee votes, but rather also a large # of No. Va. voters who don't want to wait in lines on Nov. 4. Got a Michelle O. robo-call myself asking me to vote early. Still, having canvassed several times in the neighborhoods, I agree Va. looks good if we can get everyone to the polls, have them actually vote, and have it actually counted. Personally, I'll be volunteering for the National Campaign for Fair Elections tryin' to make it happen.
October 27, 2008 2:35 PM | Reply | Permalink
Appomattox surrounded
October 27, 2008 2:47 PM | Reply | Permalink
Here is the early voting information link for Fairfax County, VA.
http://www.fairfaxcounty.gov/eb/absentee.htm
October 27, 2008 3:05 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yes, he'll definitely take places like VA, CO, NM and FL if THIS shit stops right now!
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/diane-tucker/confusing-north-carolina_b_138073.html
October 27, 2008 3:20 PM | Reply | Permalink
If you live by the dumbass vote, you die by the dumbass vote!
October 27, 2008 3:55 PM | Reply | Permalink
I live in northern (fake) Virginia - Fairfax Co. and I'm canvassing this afternoon. Tena, you can count on Virginia! God, I never thought I'd type those words! I was walking my dog and ran into my neigbors (the woman is my friend and a dem, but her hubby voted for Bush twice). I was telling her I was going to the Leesburg rally and she told me to pick her up a yard sign. I said, "What about Mr. Conservative?"
"He's voting for Obama!"
I decided that day that it's over! We are taking our country back!!!
October 27, 2008 4:19 PM | Reply | Permalink
One more Virginia poll:
http://www.commonwealthpoll.vcu.edu/CPOLL-Pres-Sen-Race-report-10-26-08.pdf
Obama up by 11. Warner *way* up over Gilmore.
October 27, 2008 6:13 PM | Reply | Permalink
This polling website has had Virgina "leaning Democrat"since early October: http://www.polltrack.com/tag/Virginia
October 27, 2008 10:19 PM | Reply | Permalink