Polls: Obama Edging Into Lead In Ohio
Here's a story that's just starting to get noticed: Ohio seemed like a McCain state in September, but economic jitters and the final dissipation of McCain's convention bounce have now edged Obama into the lead in almost all of the recent polls:
• CNN: Obama 50%, McCain 47% (Oct 7)
• ABC/WaPo: Obama 51%, McCain 45% (Oct 6)
• Rasmussen: McCain 48%, Obama 47% (Oct 6)
• Columbus Dispatch: Obama 49%, McCain 42% (Oct 5)
• GQR (D): Obama 49%, McCain 43% (Oct 1)
• Quinnipiac: Obama 50%, McCain 42% (Oct 1)
Ohio was rated as "Leans McCain" over at Pollster.com just a few weeks ago, but as of this morning it's now been reclassified as "Leans Obama."
Bonus finding: The internals from the ABC/WaPo seem to disprove people who say Obama's candidacy is based on fluff. Among those respondents who say personal qualities are the most important, it's McCain who is winning by a 62%-34% margin. Those voters who say they're picking their candidate based on the issues are going to Obama 65%-30%.
Ah, pretty please my adoptive state, don't embarrass me again! Come on, you know you want to do the right thing this time...
October 7, 2008 11:41 AM | Reply | Permalink
THIS IS EXCELLENT NEWS!!! AND NOT FOR MCCAIN!!!
October 7, 2008 11:57 AM | Reply | Permalink
WORD!
October 7, 2008 12:20 PM | Reply | Permalink
How can Pollster.com have Ohio and Florida as "Leans Obama" but Virginia is still "Toss Up"?
October 7, 2008 11:42 AM | Reply | Permalink
According to them, Obama only has a 2pt lead in Virginia.
That doesn't seem to jive with some of the recent polling.
As far as I can tell, once you hit ~4pts it goes to "lean."
And, by the way, West Virginia is only "lean" McCain. ?!?
October 7, 2008 11:52 AM | Reply | Permalink
Wow. Definitely WTF territory.
October 7, 2008 12:08 PM | Reply | Permalink
This is because of a relatively small number of polls conducted in WV. One outlier will have a disproportionate effect. I seriously doubt WV is as close as it appears.
October 7, 2008 12:19 PM | Reply | Permalink
Believe it or not, Obama has a lot going for him WV.
What two big things come out of WV?
Coal and corn.
Coal miners are 100% behind him. That includes their immediate families. I would think Obama's strong support of ethanol subsidies help him with the corn farmers. Corn is their #1 crop. I think they are getting commercials from marketing being done in Southern Ohio and western Virginia.
October 7, 2008 12:29 PM | Reply | Permalink
Number one crop in WV ain't corn - it's pot. I went to school in Athens (OU) and we never smoked any WV corn :))
October 7, 2008 1:01 PM | Reply | Permalink
"never smoked any corn" . . . too funny . . . .
October 7, 2008 2:50 PM | Reply | Permalink
"'Tain't corn, it's dope. Take a bushel home for the wife."
October 7, 2008 6:47 PM | Reply | Permalink
jesus I cannot believe they are asking people the shit they ask them - personal qualities? Give me a break - unless you define what you mean by that question it is meaningless.
Jesus fucking god - this is the kind of shit they ask people?
I wish every pollster in this country was locked up in safe-keeping until this was over. It's a game.
That's all it is. It's a game of who can game the public most thoroughly with the kind of questions they ask.
October 7, 2008 11:43 AM | Reply | Permalink
I am with you, Tena. Personal qualities ? McCain ? They gotta be kidding.
October 7, 2008 11:56 AM | Reply | Permalink
I believe that these are those 'low-information voters' everyone keeps going on about...
October 7, 2008 12:02 PM | Reply | Permalink
low information voters = dumbshits
They need to start coming correct with what these terms actually mean.
October 7, 2008 12:15 PM | Reply | Permalink
Word, Tena. Next questions will be:
Who, in your opinion, has the most POW experience?
Who would say has served longest in the Senate?
Whose character has had to longest time to develop?
Which candidate has spent less time in school, and more time in the government?
Meanless drivel. As long as they keep asking folks whether they plan to vote based on touchy-feely or based on issues, Obama will win.
PEACE
October 7, 2008 11:56 AM | Reply | Permalink
Thank you for that. I'm glad I finished my coffee; if not, it would be all over my monitor after reading your post. ROTFL, as the kids say.
October 7, 2008 12:02 PM | Reply | Permalink
I suspect that there are still a few folks out there who consider lack of melanin as a laudable personal quality...
October 7, 2008 12:02 PM | Reply | Permalink
Me, I don't give a rat's ass about melanin, but malignant melanoma is something that should be considered.
PEACE
October 7, 2008 12:09 PM | Reply | Permalink
There you go!
:)
October 7, 2008 12:17 PM | Reply | Permalink
And those of us who believe in science recognize that melanin concentration in the skin is an adaptation that reduced the chance of melanomas and probably nothing much more than that.
John McCain's regular bouts with skin related carcinomas is natural selection in action. Isn't nature wonderful?
October 7, 2008 12:20 PM | Reply | Permalink
Isn't it melatonin?
I thought melanin was a substance implicated in the sleep/wake cycle, and is now used by people to offset effects of jet lag (not in the U.S., not approved yet by FDA).
October 7, 2008 12:36 PM | Reply | Permalink
Never mind--I'm getting my melatonins and melanins mixed up.
October 7, 2008 12:38 PM | Reply | Permalink
And he had a very serious stage of melanoma, I would be amazed if it did not rear it's ugly head again.
October 7, 2008 12:45 PM | Reply | Permalink
I am wondering if the polls include early voting? Do we know?
October 7, 2008 11:48 AM | Reply | Permalink
Agreed. "Personal qualities" could be anything from "leadership capability" to "fun in the sack."
October 7, 2008 11:49 AM | Reply | Permalink
I don't know...even as a McCain supporter I can't see him winning the "fun in thsack" vote. Now if we were talking VP candidates...
October 7, 2008 11:52 AM | Reply | Permalink
That seems to be the attraction for many conservative males to Palin.
I'm shocked that being a milf overcomes her incompetence.
October 7, 2008 11:56 AM | Reply | Permalink
Come on now...liberals want to do her too...
October 7, 2008 12:01 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'd never vote for her, and her gams don't make up for the fact that she's a total idiot and completely unqualified for the vicepresidency.
October 7, 2008 12:04 PM | Reply | Permalink
<shudder>
October 7, 2008 12:15 PM | Reply | Permalink
want to make sexy time in barracuda back vagine
October 7, 2008 12:16 PM | Reply | Permalink
heh
October 7, 2008 12:33 PM | Reply | Permalink
I bet you don't know this, but there is nothing hotter than a smart lefty in the sack.
October 7, 2008 12:21 PM | Reply | Permalink
WORD.
Democrats are sexy. Whoever heard of a great piece of elephant?
October 7, 2008 1:53 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yeah, in the same way Ann Coulter thinks liberals want to do her.
I don't think so.
October 7, 2008 12:23 PM | Reply | Permalink
::shudder::
October 7, 2008 12:26 PM | Reply | Permalink
Shudder is right. I take no position one way or the other with regard to Sarah Palin, but Ann Coulter!?! No way. The mere mention has made me loose my appetite.
October 7, 2008 12:29 PM | Reply | Permalink
Aw - not up for some hot tranny action?
LOL!
October 7, 2008 12:37 PM | Reply | Permalink
As my son would say, "Ew, ewww, ewwwwwww."
October 7, 2008 12:46 PM | Reply | Permalink
ROTFLMAO!
October 7, 2008 12:34 PM | Reply | Permalink
Times like this I'm glad to be gay. She's as repellent physically as she is in every other way. She don't do a damn thing for me, happy to report.
October 7, 2008 12:37 PM | Reply | Permalink
LOL
October 7, 2008 12:25 PM | Reply | Permalink
I wonder who wins that one...
October 7, 2008 11:50 AM | Reply | Permalink
As an Ohio native, I'm still pretty damn wary of these polls. If there's going to be a Bradley effect it's going to happen in Ohio and Pennsylvania, where union Dems are under heavy pressure to vote for Obama ... but racism in the end may push them to McCain. I'm actually much more hoepful for Virginia. That's the new Ohio.
http://pufferfish.typepad.com/
October 7, 2008 11:50 AM | Reply | Permalink
PA seems to be in the bag. I would not be surprised to see McCain squeak out OH, if for no other reason than this race-bating he's doing now.
Eeven if McCain does get OH, if Obama can pick up NC or VA, it won't mattter.
October 7, 2008 11:53 AM | Reply | Permalink
Colorado was "in the bag" last week...
October 7, 2008 12:03 PM | Reply | Permalink
And it remains so.
October 7, 2008 12:04 PM | Reply | Permalink
Obama (D) 51%, McCain (R) 45% - Oct 6 Rasmussen
Obama (D) 44%, McCain (R) 44% - Oct 5 Mason-Dixon
Obama (D) 44%, McCain (R) 43% - Oct 1 Ciruli
October 7, 2008 12:07 PM | Reply | Permalink
http://www.pollster.com/polls/co/08-co-pres-ge-mvo.php
October 7, 2008 12:09 PM | Reply | Permalink
Ah yes Mason Dixon, they are such a reliable polling org. Well, reliably bad.
October 7, 2008 12:18 PM | Reply | Permalink
LOL! "Ciruli"? Is that code for pollster in the bag for McCain?
October 7, 2008 12:19 PM | Reply | Permalink
LOL!
October 7, 2008 12:25 PM | Reply | Permalink
Cirulisly?
October 7, 2008 12:25 PM | Reply | Permalink
I just clicked the "CO" link on the right...no cherry picking...
http://tpmelectioncentral.talkingpointsmemo.com/statepages/colorado.php
October 7, 2008 1:21 PM | Reply | Permalink
Your point is well taken, but our prospects of taking PA and/or CO still look better than yours.
October 7, 2008 12:21 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yeah, think you're right about Penn. That state tends to run a couple points ahead of Ohio.
October 7, 2008 12:05 PM | Reply | Permalink
Hey, nice avatar Gooner!!!
October 7, 2008 12:07 PM | Reply | Permalink
That is a creepy coincidence. Almost TOO creepy.
October 7, 2008 12:10 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yes, and just ask yourself this question: which of the presidential candidates most resembles Arsene Wenger? By temperament, judgment, and stature, the answer's pretty damn obvious.
October 7, 2008 12:12 PM | Reply | Permalink
Here in PA, we have one of the nation's largest senior populations. Now that it's out that McCain wants to cut Medicare, on top of his desire to privatize Social Security, the color of the candidate seems to be having far less affect.
I'm out talking to these people every day, and I can tell you that even life-long GOPers are jumping ship.
PEACE
October 7, 2008 12:14 PM | Reply | Permalink
For those people who are favoring McCain on the basis of personal qualities, how long before they abandon him, since he is showing his personal qualities to be dishonesty, dishonor, underhanded tactics and sleaze?
October 7, 2008 11:51 AM | Reply | Permalink
Doesn't mean a thing. Obama has one quality that some of these folks hate more: he's Black. I'm an Ohioan, and I'm telling you - folks making calls there or volunteering there should act like he's down 10.
October 7, 2008 11:55 AM | Reply | Permalink
Speaking of polls, the Hotline/Diageo poll looks strange, doesn't it?
And maybe here's why:
Seriously? In every other poll, Obama is trouncing McCain, but in this one, they're tied? Who're they polling?
October 7, 2008 11:53 AM | Reply | Permalink
Agreed.
I simply don't buy indies favoring McCain on the economy by 8%. No way. Something's fishy with that poll.
October 7, 2008 11:55 AM | Reply | Permalink
McCain leading in any category would be surprising to me, except maybe 65+.
October 7, 2008 12:30 PM | Reply | Permalink
Look at the party weighting. Its wrong.
October 7, 2008 11:57 AM | Reply | Permalink
Party ID Breakdown: 40%D, 38%R, 18%I.
Thats why
October 7, 2008 12:03 PM | Reply | Permalink
Exactly. They must not weigh - they just report what they get.
This would actually answer a question I have had for a while about this poll - why is it so volatile? I mean, it moves ALL over the place.
October 7, 2008 12:07 PM | Reply | Permalink
No they do weigh, they just decided to weigh it differently today then they have been. Then they act like theres some shift in public opinion when all there really is, is a shift in who they asked.
October 7, 2008 12:11 PM | Reply | Permalink
I might be mistaken on if they weigh or not, if they dont then that just shows that they cant be trusted.
October 7, 2008 12:19 PM | Reply | Permalink
Struck me as strange as well. The numbers for the economy question look like even more of an outlier than the head-to-head numbers, although 2pts is closer than anybody has it. One thing to note - for some reason, between yesterday and today they switched their party ID breakdown. Since the inception of this poll, the party ID breakdown was 41D/36R. Even that was probably a bit conservative re: the Dem numbers. Today, for some reason, they switched to 40D/38R. A 2pt Dem lead in party ID? I don't think so.
Rasmussen has a 6pt Dem lead in party ID (last week it was 5.5pts) and he's had Obama up by +7, +8, and +8 over the last few days. If there's one tracking poll out there that's been remarkably consistent it's been Rasmussen. And while me may think his party ID shortchanges the Dems a little bit, +6 is probably pretty close to reality. He adjusts his party ID breakdown weekly but it never shifts drastically...especially not like the crazy shift in the Hotline poll.
That said, even yesterday, when the split was still 41D/36R, the economy numbers were 43O-42M. That just does not seem right. No other pollster is showing it that close.
October 7, 2008 12:12 PM | Reply | Permalink
The only thing that worries me about the results is that damn Columbus Dispatch poll. CD polls are so unreliable that a +7 for Obama probably means he's losing by 10.
October 7, 2008 11:53 AM | Reply | Permalink
Except that last night on Rachel Maddow's show they were discussing polls and I think it was Debbie Wasserman-Schulz who said that the polls are way off - anyone that shows OBama ahead by 7 is probably off by more than 5 points.
She's seen the internal numbers.
That only makes sense to me based on the voters we've registered, if nothing else. And while Debbie and I both realize that registering doesn't always produce votes, in this election I think registering is far more likely to produce votes than not cause this candidate has GOTV effort second to none in our history.
October 7, 2008 12:06 PM | Reply | Permalink
It also helps that most of the voter reg was done by the campaign rather than independent groups that can't coordinate, so we know who the people are to get out to vote.
October 7, 2008 12:18 PM | Reply | Permalink
Debbie also said that, with McCain talking about cutting Medicare, he's basically lost Florida.
Throw in some rumors about Medicare means testing, and some rich, retired Floridians are permanently off the bus.
PEACE
October 7, 2008 12:19 PM | Reply | Permalink
As an Ohio native, born and raised, I won't believe this until November 4. I wish I had more faith in my fellow Buckeyes in the southern portions of the state("Where the South Begins!" should be the slogan), but I don't.
October 7, 2008 11:54 AM | Reply | Permalink
I'm one of those southern Ohioans, and I'm not only voting for Obama, I'm donating money to his campaign, making calls on his behalf, and walking our area knocking on doors wearing my YES WE CAN shirt -- none of which I've done for any other political candidate. Above, you said you hoped that the Ohio volunteers for the Obama campaign were working as if he's 10 points down -- that's exactly what we're doing. We're standing up, we're speaking up, we're engaging total strangers in conversations about Obama and the need for a change in direction in this country, and we'll keep doing that right up to Election Day.
October 7, 2008 12:43 PM | Reply | Permalink
Does anybody recall what the polls were looking like in Ohio at this point in 2004?
October 7, 2008 11:55 AM | Reply | Permalink
Tall, red and white striped, big ball at the top.
October 7, 2008 11:57 AM | Reply | Permalink
it was spinning too.
October 7, 2008 12:04 PM | Reply | Permalink
Bush .5 - roughly.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/Presidential_04/oh_polls.html
October 7, 2008 12:00 PM | Reply | Permalink
realclearpolitics sure gets cited around here a lot.
It's a winger site. I don't always trust it.
October 7, 2008 12:07 PM | Reply | Permalink
But thats just a table with numbers. Numbers don't fib right?
Plus - I even did the average myself. :)
October 7, 2008 12:19 PM | Reply | Permalink
this is all I could find. Kerry had a 1 point lead in OH at this time in 2004, per Survey USA.
http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2004/Pres/Maps/Oct07.html
October 7, 2008 12:00 PM | Reply | Permalink
Ahhh, Ohio. Combining the industrial decay of the Northeast with the casual racism of the south. My home state. Land that I lo...er, visit. Occasionally. When I have to.
October 7, 2008 11:56 AM | Reply | Permalink
Has anyone noticed that today there are three national polls where the spread between Obama and McCain is only around three points? I'm wondering whether the McCain smear lies are having an effect.
October 7, 2008 11:57 AM | Reply | Permalink
Any time you feel worried, go to www.fivethirtyeight.com and look at the map on the right then the projected win percentage on the left. You'll feel much better.
October 7, 2008 12:04 PM | Reply | Permalink
Weekend bounce?
October 7, 2008 12:17 PM | Reply | Permalink
Too soon for those attacks to move that many voters.
More likely it has to do with people who, last week, moved away from McCain are coming back.
Notice that Obama is staying right around a 49 average and McCain is gaining - 42 over the weekend - 43 yesterday - 44 today (RCP averages).
October 7, 2008 12:05 PM | Reply | Permalink
It's worth noting that Nate at fivethirtyeight has built into his model the notion that Obama's numbers will go down (or the gap will tighten) between Obama's peak and election day.
I'm not saying that we shouldn't keep donating and working our butts off--BECAUSE EVERYONE SHOULD BE WORKING RIGHT NOW ON IT!!!--but I don't think it's indicative of anything other than that this is a close election.
The media loves the story, so I expect it will keep swinging from analysis like "Obama's got it locked" to "McCain's inching closer" all the way to Nov 4. Just make sure to DONATE and GET OUT THE VOTE.
October 7, 2008 1:13 PM | Reply | Permalink
Hes up by 11 in one tracking and 8 in another, Zogby just started so we cant judge any changes in theirs. Hotline is off because they just did a major (and a BS one) change in their party id breakdown.
October 7, 2008 12:06 PM | Reply | Permalink
Huh?
He's up by 8 in Ras. He's up by 10 or 11 in R2K. He's up by 6 in WSJ/ABC. He was up by 8 in Gallup yesterday. The only two that show a much closer race are the CBS poll, and the Hotline/Diageo poll, which, as people point out above, has quite an interesting voter breakdown.
October 7, 2008 12:09 PM | Reply | Permalink
Don't forget +3 in Zogby.
October 7, 2008 12:17 PM | Reply | Permalink
Sorry, Zogby does not count, though he is a liberal.
October 7, 2008 12:37 PM | Reply | Permalink
Say it ain't so, TPM!
October 7, 2008 12:00 PM | Reply | Permalink
It ain't so, TPM!
October 7, 2008 12:16 PM | Reply | Permalink
By personal qualities are they talking about seething anger & ability to lie with ease? If that's the case then McPoopy pants should be ahead by more than 62-34!!!
I agree with Tena, the polls are flat out weird. As the polls began trending toward Obama I noticed that Rasmussen always had it the closest. Not sure, maybe they take a while to process all of their data, maybe?!?!?!?
One point I wanted to make about the campaign as a whole:
When Mcgrumpy selected Palin as his running mate (which, BTW, WILL go down as one of the worst political moves EVER!), he was "appealing to the base". Palin's convention speech was also "red meat" for the base of the repug party and at both debates and while stumping, McLiar & Tina Fey gin up the crowds with more "red meat".
But this election will be won and lost with the undecideds and the independents and these "red meat" tactics are anathema to most people (to say nothing of the new depths their campaign is hitting). It seems that the McBomb campaign is oblivious to this. Sure he's not liked by most republicans but the "base" would surely go to the polls on November 4th, hold their noses and vote for him, so why is he wasting time trying to solidify this support? I'm not trying to give him ideas or anything, just observing what a clusterf**k his campaign has been.
Obama-Biden 2008, all the way!
October 7, 2008 12:07 PM | Reply | Permalink
Well I can't help but co-sign!
LOL!
October 7, 2008 12:14 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yep. I take exception to Eric's editorial opinion that voters who feel personal qualities are the most important are those who vote based on fluff.
I think a candidate's character is hugely important. I'll list my top few character components:
-- Smarts
-- Compassion
-- An even temper
-- Ability to explain and persuade
-- Plays well with others
Trouble is, character is often conflated with the perception of character. And that perception is greatly subject to manipulation.
Also, people who say they vote based on character are often deciding based on issues they see as character-related, e.g. abortion, gays, religion, etc.
So, if you're talking about a candidate's true character, I'd say give it great weight. If you're talking about fluff, I'll sit here and shake my head along with everybody else.
October 7, 2008 12:56 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'm shaking my head to start with that they framed the damn question that vaguely. Skin color is a personal quality as hendladys said upthread.
What the hell are they really trying to ask? If it's a character issue, then why not say character? "Personal qualities" could mean anything which automatically makes it a very suspicious poll question.
October 7, 2008 1:30 PM | Reply | Permalink
Ohio is the right armpit of the country, comparable to the left armpit that is Indiana.
Ohio is hick-ville and red and won't be changing. No way in God's green earth I see those racist deuschbags going blue. No chance.
Hopefully, it won't matter, though.
October 7, 2008 12:09 PM | Reply | Permalink
Er, thank you for that polite, well informed opinion...
:-/
October 7, 2008 12:16 PM | Reply | Permalink
With friends like these who needs enemies?
Can we save the hate speech for Palin and her followers?
October 7, 2008 1:15 PM | Reply | Permalink
Ohio won't matter. If we win, it will be just icing on the landslide electoral victory cake.
October 7, 2008 12:14 PM | Reply | Permalink
Technically, "white" is a personal quality.
October 7, 2008 12:14 PM | Reply | Permalink
Don't sweat Ohio. All the trendlines are in Obama's direction, but chances are, he won't need it. With all the Kerry states, plus IA, CO and NM, he's over the top. VA, NC, NV and FL are getting bluer by the day and even MO and IN are becoming tossups. McCain is down to the reddest of the red, and even those are turning pink.
October 7, 2008 12:15 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'm hoping we won't have to wait around for the NM and Colorado numbers, that wait would kill me.
October 7, 2008 12:21 PM | Reply | Permalink
Nope. By 9 p.m. Eastern, we'll know. If Obama takes Ohio OR Virginia OR Florida, he's won.
If he takes two or more of those three, it's a rout.
October 7, 2008 2:02 PM | Reply | Permalink
Good work, ye volunteers of Ohio. I am looking forward to a solid Mass of blue trailing all the way from Maine to Missouri this year (yes, Indiana, I am looking at you too). Meanwhile, speaking of Missouri, has everyone noticed that 538.com has both IN and MO now in the blue column (albeit only just). I have been very much looking forward to that sight for well over a week now.
October 7, 2008 12:17 PM | Reply | Permalink
Scientific,,,,, I'm in SE Ohio, land of too many children and too few teech,,,,, this isn't where the south begins, it's where West Virginia begins and that's much worse.
Ted Strickland is popular down here, represented us in Congress,,,,, he's pushing hard for Obama,,,, Hillary is immensely popular as well,,,, she can be helpful. Don't discount Ralph Stanley either.
The truly scarey part of the state is Cincinnati and the I-75 corridor up to Lima,,,, they even send their sheets out to the cleaners so they look their best at a moment's notice.
If Barack goes into the final weekend with a 10 point lead we'll all rest easier, in any event.
October 7, 2008 12:18 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'm a Cincinnatan, and I can tell you that the Obama offices have been BUSY here with callers and canvassing. We went out two weekends in a row and talked to people, got a couple of folks registered and talked to a couple of life-long Republicans who are now so enthusiastic about Obama that they agreed to be contacted about volunteering for the Obama campaign. Will it make a difference? I hope so! I plan to keep doing what I'm doing until Nov. 4th!
October 7, 2008 1:48 PM | Reply | Permalink
My fellow Floridians have Obama up by 7 points here.
Let's keep it going!
October 7, 2008 12:18 PM | Reply | Permalink
See my post below - Wasserman-Schulz thinks that number is 5 points too low.
October 7, 2008 12:31 PM | Reply | Permalink
As a first hand observer here in Northeastern Ohio Obama's voter registration efforts have been much more successful than is being reported. Democratic registration has doubled in some of the most populous counties up here. He has maintained a strong advertising presence on sports talk radio (big male dominated demo)and is flooding the tv airwaves morning, noon, and night.
This is a surge we can believe in my friends!
October 7, 2008 12:18 PM | Reply | Permalink
Aren't the polls already open in Ohio? I bet Obama's gound game is working overtime to get voters in Cleveland, Columbus, and Cinci out NOW!
October 7, 2008 12:20 PM | Reply | Permalink
Actually, that does not seem to be the case, much as I might like to see a flood of early voting.
October 7, 2008 12:27 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yes. We're at the final day of a week long, same day registration, same day voting period. Beginning tomorrow registered voters can still vote absentee (no excuse necessary)by mail or in person up to November 3.
October 7, 2008 12:27 PM | Reply | Permalink
Maybe after Obama wins the election he could work on trying to connect with southern Ohio and the rest of Appalachia and listen to their concerns personally and maybe break this antipathy he spoke of once and for all. Ignoring people is not the solution. You need to address these problems head on. It's time to heal this Nation, not run from it's divisiveness.
With the political capital Obama will have after this election, I think a lot of stereo types and walls put in place can be overcome. Of course you'll have the asshole right wing radio and syndicated columnists that will try to continue to fuel this fire to try and keep the division alive.
It will take time.
October 7, 2008 12:24 PM | Reply | Permalink
At least with the economic meltdown happening now, most of them won't believe conservative radio etc when they try and blame Obama for the mess in February. Had it happened just after the election it would the global markets reacting to Obama's election that caused it.
October 7, 2008 12:48 PM | Reply | Permalink
Wasserman-Schulz said last night that she is damned positive that the numbers in Florida for Obama are way way too low - she has him up by at least 12.
Now why would she raise expectations if she didn't believe it was true?
October 7, 2008 12:27 PM | Reply | Permalink
There was a leak that McCain's internals for Michigan has Obama up by 12-15 points, which was why they pulled out.
How can internal polls be so different from the public national ones? Do they break them down and poll a lot more scientifically? I.e. know what areas traditionally vote stronger and in what years (incumbant running vs no incumbant), as well as have a better handle on registered voter numbers?
How do campaigns poll anyways? Do they cal around just like Ras or whomever? And if they identified themselves as "The Obama Campaign calling" wouldn't a Republican screw with their answers?
October 7, 2008 12:32 PM | Reply | Permalink
Good questions, Jonze.
I just don't get the polls or the pollsters most of the time.
I don't trust numbers - hell, they are so easily manipulated it's not even funny - that's why we're in the economic mess we're in - anyone who knows numbers can make them say any damn thing at all.
October 7, 2008 12:34 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'm trying to ignore them. The only thing that seems definitive to me is staff movement. Unless McCain moved his staff out of Michigan and then had them parachute drop back in by nightfall. That would not be altogether surprising at this point.
October 7, 2008 12:36 PM | Reply | Permalink
One major difference is that they poll district by district. They have massive databases that show historical trends for each district. Combine this with their polling - and they can get hyper accurate state polling.
State polls are to us what district based polls are to the campaigns.
I've said before that I would _love_ to see a campaign release all their internals with commentary in a book form post election. How slick would that be? They probably don't want to give up the secret sauce though.
October 7, 2008 12:46 PM | Reply | Permalink
Exactly. If you've ever learned precinct math, you realize that it's not just what people are saying now, it's that compared to how that precinct voted the last time, and how the actual vote compared to the expected vote based on registration and other factors, and crunching those numbers for the most recent election, the most recent similar election (president, mid-term, gubernatorial, etc.) and so on.
It's not difficult, but tedious, and only the campaigns have the motivation to do it.
If you do it right, you can predict the vote to within one-tenth of one percent.
October 7, 2008 2:26 PM | Reply | Permalink
That's a damn good question, Jonze. You should e-mail Nate Silver. See if he has any insight.
October 7, 2008 12:49 PM | Reply | Permalink
Well, nevermind....looks like mostman has got the goods.
October 7, 2008 12:53 PM | Reply | Permalink
This is a complete guess on my part but I'm guessing that the most honest polls out there are the respective campaigns' internal polls. They need to know better than anybody the state of the race in each state. And they just don't want good news. They need the bad news as well to determine whether or not they should continue spending money in the state. For example, Michigan and McCain.
Palin has been camped out in Florida that last two days and Obama has been spending a ton of money there. You don't spend a ton of money in a state you don't think you can win and you don't plant your veep candidate there for two days this close to election day if you think you're going to win the state.
Another good example is Minnesota. There was a recent poll that showed the race very close. But as somebody noted, perhaps Nate Silver, neither candidate was rushing to visit the state. Probably means Obama has a pretty comfortable lead, even though McCain has been outspending him there on ads.
Given the latest McCain kitchen sink/slash and burn strategy, you have to believe that their internals not only confirm the public polls - they are worse.
October 7, 2008 12:55 PM | Reply | Permalink
The red meat the McCain/Palin Camp has resprted to as their last stand seems to be to give up all illusions of trying to steal any Kerry states, and they're all about rallying up the base enough in Bush States to win a close vote.
One can only hope that McCain/Palin leaners are turned off by the direction and gutter depths of their campaign and vote Obama/Biden.
Their current character attacks, which is basically just a not-so-concealed racial attack in some instances is trying to swing back Virginia, NC, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Fla.
Obama should run a Spanish-Language campaign ad saying to the effect "If McCain was running against a Latin-American candidate with an American Mother and Mexican Father, what do you think he's be saying about them?"
October 7, 2008 12:27 PM | Reply | Permalink
We're going to win Ohio.
I guarantee it!
October 7, 2008 12:27 PM | Reply | Permalink
Among those respondents who say personal qualities are the most important, it's McCain who is winning by a 62%-34% margin.
That's crazy! McCain's personal qualities? A quasi-raving lunatic?
October 7, 2008 12:35 PM | Reply | Permalink
Well, if it weren't for those 5 years he had to spend in the Hanoi Hilton, he'd be a full-on 100% stark raving maniac, and don't you ever forget it!
October 7, 2008 12:44 PM | Reply | Permalink
OK, some clown at Palin's rally this morning screamed "TREASON!" when she mentioned Obama's name.
This is no longer coincidence - this is STAGED!!
These have to be McCain campaign staffers yelling this shit out so it makes the news and hopefully gets talked about enough that people will start believing the association.
And, of course, "Joe Six Pack" America will fall for it...sigghhhh.
October 7, 2008 12:35 PM | Reply | Permalink
It's called mob mentality I'd guess. All reasonable train of thought goes out the door when the emotion of the crowd takes over.
October 7, 2008 12:43 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yeah, if you consider 15 - 25 people a "mob."
You're stuck back in 2004 and nothing about the model you are using is relevant anymore.
October 7, 2008 1:33 PM | Reply | Permalink
Buckeye,
You shouldn't guarantee stuff - I guaranteed the Cubs would make it to the World Series and they got swept in the first round.
Obama could very well win Ohio, but to guarantee it could bring heartbreak...especially with Ohio's history of voter fraud and caging.
October 7, 2008 12:37 PM | Reply | Permalink
I live in Cincinnati. In the past three weeks I've had two visits to my home by Obama canvassers as well as at least five or six phone calls.
No one from the McCain campaign has visited or called.
I've heard the same from friends and acquaintances all over the city.
It certainly appears -- based on my limited perspective -- that Obama is working SW Ohio really hard, while McCain isn't working it much at all. For whatever that's worth . . .
Also, in my decidedly working-class neighborhood, there are more Obama yard signs than McCain -- I'd say roughly at about a 5:3 ratio . . .
October 7, 2008 12:40 PM | Reply | Permalink
Obama will be in Portsmouth, Dayton and Cincinnati in the next few days.
We're going to win Ohio.
Book it!
October 7, 2008 2:58 PM | Reply | Permalink
Obama up by 15 in PA?
Don't believe it, but it sure is fun to look at!
October 7, 2008 12:41 PM | Reply | Permalink
Well i dont know if SurveyUSA is exactly correct on that but the last 5 polls in PA have been, 15, 11, 15, 8, 7. I think you can safely say that Obama will win PA, it might not be by 15 points but he is going to win the state either way.
October 7, 2008 12:45 PM | Reply | Permalink
That 15 point lead in the new SurveyUSA poll is the death knell of the "toss up"/battleground status. McCain might as well close up shop there.
October 7, 2008 12:42 PM | Reply | Permalink
Why can't Obama break that 55% mark?
Why can't he close the deal in PA? :P
October 7, 2008 12:46 PM | Reply | Permalink
tnt,
McCain's ingoring Ohio because Republicans are arrogant enough to believe they have that state in the bag - either that, or McCain's privy to some "caging" information they have planned that will get them Ohio pretty much the same way Bush got it in 2004.
Call it paranoia - I call it history repeating itself if nothing is done about it!
October 7, 2008 12:46 PM | Reply | Permalink
Obama's secret service detail will have to be the biggest in history. Sad but true.
For the next four year there will be a McCain death /incapacitation watch. Would Bible Spice have become POTUS if Johnny Mac had won?
Cucumber, as in cool as, is the way to go again for Obama. Win by being reasonable and thoughtful. What a concept!
I hope this election is the death of sleaze politics but I'm not holding my breath. The Obama campaign was perfect and the mood of the country was too scared, pissed and engaged for it to work.
Big O will rock tonight. The sound you hear is beads of desperation sweat falling from Scott Schmidt's bald melon.
October 7, 2008 12:46 PM | Reply | Permalink
Biden should make a pledge to go hardcore gun control if Obama is assassinated by a racist nutter. That will keep the "Gun Nuts" policing their own...
October 7, 2008 1:05 PM | Reply | Permalink
...or get them out on the campaign trail...
October 7, 2008 1:25 PM | Reply | Permalink
The last thing a candidate wants to see is polling numbers trending towards his opponent during the last 30 days of the campaign. In other words, McCain hasn't gained any ground in any states since he became the GOP's presidential nominee. Instead, he's lost ground in the vast majority if not all of the red states and gained no ground in any of the blue states. McCain IS NOT going to take any states that Kerry won in 2004, while Obama is currently leading in Florida, Ohio, Missouri, Virginia, Colorado, New Mexico and Nevada and is even in North Carolina and 2 percentage points in Indiana, all red states that were won by Bush in 2004. During a time when his polling numbers are decreasing, McCain has to fight from behind to hold on to red states, while Obama has all the blue states sown up and leading or tied in red states McCain MUST have to win like Florida, Ohio, Missouri, Virginia and North Carolina. In fact, McCain STILL LOSES if he somehow manages to win in Florida, Ohio, Virginia, North Carolina, Missouri and either Nevada or New Mexico. Who in their right mind could believe that after all the recent movement toward Obama in those states that McCain is capable of winning them?
October 7, 2008 12:48 PM | Reply | Permalink
Nobody who is in their right mind, IMO.
October 7, 2008 12:51 PM | Reply | Permalink
I read on 538 that Obama is using internet advertisement for the http://www.keatingeconomics.com/ website. heh. I guess he wants to make sure everyone knows about it.
October 7, 2008 12:50 PM | Reply | Permalink
This is also something everyone should know about,,,,, http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/10/06/olbermann-special-comment_n_132456.html
October 7, 2008 12:56 PM | Reply | Permalink