Polls: Obama Edging Into Lead In Ohio
Here's a story that's just starting to get noticed: Ohio seemed like a McCain state in September, but economic jitters and the final dissipation of McCain's convention bounce have now edged Obama into the lead in almost all of the recent polls:
• CNN: Obama 50%, McCain 47% (Oct 7)
• ABC/WaPo: Obama 51%, McCain 45% (Oct 6)
• Rasmussen: McCain 48%, Obama 47% (Oct 6)
• Columbus Dispatch: Obama 49%, McCain 42% (Oct 5)
• GQR (D): Obama 49%, McCain 43% (Oct 1)
• Quinnipiac: Obama 50%, McCain 42% (Oct 1)
Ohio was rated as "Leans McCain" over at Pollster.com just a few weeks ago, but as of this morning it's now been reclassified as "Leans Obama."
Bonus finding: The internals from the ABC/WaPo seem to disprove people who say Obama's candidacy is based on fluff. Among those respondents who say personal qualities are the most important, it's McCain who is winning by a 62%-34% margin. Those voters who say they're picking their candidate based on the issues are going to Obama 65%-30%.
Ah, pretty please my adoptive state, don't embarrass me again! Come on, you know you want to do the right thing this time...
October 7, 2008 11:41 AM | Reply | Permalink
THIS IS EXCELLENT NEWS!!! AND NOT FOR MCCAIN!!!
October 7, 2008 11:57 AM | Reply | Permalink
WORD!
October 7, 2008 12:20 PM | Reply | Permalink
How can Pollster.com have Ohio and Florida as "Leans Obama" but Virginia is still "Toss Up"?
October 7, 2008 11:42 AM | Reply | Permalink
According to them, Obama only has a 2pt lead in Virginia.
That doesn't seem to jive with some of the recent polling.
As far as I can tell, once you hit ~4pts it goes to "lean."
And, by the way, West Virginia is only "lean" McCain. ?!?
October 7, 2008 11:52 AM | Reply | Permalink
Wow. Definitely WTF territory.
October 7, 2008 12:08 PM | Reply | Permalink
This is because of a relatively small number of polls conducted in WV. One outlier will have a disproportionate effect. I seriously doubt WV is as close as it appears.
October 7, 2008 12:19 PM | Reply | Permalink
Believe it or not, Obama has a lot going for him WV.
What two big things come out of WV?
Coal and corn.
Coal miners are 100% behind him. That includes their immediate families. I would think Obama's strong support of ethanol subsidies help him with the corn farmers. Corn is their #1 crop. I think they are getting commercials from marketing being done in Southern Ohio and western Virginia.
October 7, 2008 12:29 PM | Reply | Permalink
Number one crop in WV ain't corn - it's pot. I went to school in Athens (OU) and we never smoked any WV corn :))
October 7, 2008 1:01 PM | Reply | Permalink
"never smoked any corn" . . . too funny . . . .
October 7, 2008 2:50 PM | Reply | Permalink
"'Tain't corn, it's dope. Take a bushel home for the wife."
October 7, 2008 6:47 PM | Reply | Permalink
jesus I cannot believe they are asking people the shit they ask them - personal qualities? Give me a break - unless you define what you mean by that question it is meaningless.
Jesus fucking god - this is the kind of shit they ask people?
I wish every pollster in this country was locked up in safe-keeping until this was over. It's a game.
That's all it is. It's a game of who can game the public most thoroughly with the kind of questions they ask.
October 7, 2008 11:43 AM | Reply | Permalink
I am with you, Tena. Personal qualities ? McCain ? They gotta be kidding.
October 7, 2008 11:56 AM | Reply | Permalink
I believe that these are those 'low-information voters' everyone keeps going on about...
October 7, 2008 12:02 PM | Reply | Permalink
low information voters = dumbshits
They need to start coming correct with what these terms actually mean.
October 7, 2008 12:15 PM | Reply | Permalink
Word, Tena. Next questions will be:
Who, in your opinion, has the most POW experience?
Who would say has served longest in the Senate?
Whose character has had to longest time to develop?
Which candidate has spent less time in school, and more time in the government?
Meanless drivel. As long as they keep asking folks whether they plan to vote based on touchy-feely or based on issues, Obama will win.
PEACE
October 7, 2008 11:56 AM | Reply | Permalink
Thank you for that. I'm glad I finished my coffee; if not, it would be all over my monitor after reading your post. ROTFL, as the kids say.
October 7, 2008 12:02 PM | Reply | Permalink
I suspect that there are still a few folks out there who consider lack of melanin as a laudable personal quality...
October 7, 2008 12:02 PM | Reply | Permalink
Me, I don't give a rat's ass about melanin, but malignant melanoma is something that should be considered.
PEACE
October 7, 2008 12:09 PM | Reply | Permalink
There you go!
:)
October 7, 2008 12:17 PM | Reply | Permalink
And those of us who believe in science recognize that melanin concentration in the skin is an adaptation that reduced the chance of melanomas and probably nothing much more than that.
John McCain's regular bouts with skin related carcinomas is natural selection in action. Isn't nature wonderful?
October 7, 2008 12:20 PM | Reply | Permalink
Isn't it melatonin?
I thought melanin was a substance implicated in the sleep/wake cycle, and is now used by people to offset effects of jet lag (not in the U.S., not approved yet by FDA).
October 7, 2008 12:36 PM | Reply | Permalink
Never mind--I'm getting my melatonins and melanins mixed up.
October 7, 2008 12:38 PM | Reply | Permalink
And he had a very serious stage of melanoma, I would be amazed if it did not rear it's ugly head again.
October 7, 2008 12:45 PM | Reply | Permalink
I am wondering if the polls include early voting? Do we know?
October 7, 2008 11:48 AM | Reply | Permalink
Agreed. "Personal qualities" could be anything from "leadership capability" to "fun in the sack."
October 7, 2008 11:49 AM | Reply | Permalink
I don't know...even as a McCain supporter I can't see him winning the "fun in thsack" vote. Now if we were talking VP candidates...
October 7, 2008 11:52 AM | Reply | Permalink
That seems to be the attraction for many conservative males to Palin.
I'm shocked that being a milf overcomes her incompetence.
October 7, 2008 11:56 AM | Reply | Permalink
Come on now...liberals want to do her too...
October 7, 2008 12:01 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'd never vote for her, and her gams don't make up for the fact that she's a total idiot and completely unqualified for the vicepresidency.
October 7, 2008 12:04 PM | Reply | Permalink
<shudder>
October 7, 2008 12:15 PM | Reply | Permalink
want to make sexy time in barracuda back vagine
October 7, 2008 12:16 PM | Reply | Permalink
heh
October 7, 2008 12:33 PM | Reply | Permalink
I bet you don't know this, but there is nothing hotter than a smart lefty in the sack.
October 7, 2008 12:21 PM | Reply | Permalink
WORD.
Democrats are sexy. Whoever heard of a great piece of elephant?
October 7, 2008 1:53 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yeah, in the same way Ann Coulter thinks liberals want to do her.
I don't think so.
October 7, 2008 12:23 PM | Reply | Permalink
::shudder::
October 7, 2008 12:26 PM | Reply | Permalink
Shudder is right. I take no position one way or the other with regard to Sarah Palin, but Ann Coulter!?! No way. The mere mention has made me loose my appetite.
October 7, 2008 12:29 PM | Reply | Permalink
Aw - not up for some hot tranny action?
LOL!
October 7, 2008 12:37 PM | Reply | Permalink
As my son would say, "Ew, ewww, ewwwwwww."
October 7, 2008 12:46 PM | Reply | Permalink
ROTFLMAO!
October 7, 2008 12:34 PM | Reply | Permalink
Times like this I'm glad to be gay. She's as repellent physically as she is in every other way. She don't do a damn thing for me, happy to report.
October 7, 2008 12:37 PM | Reply | Permalink
LOL
October 7, 2008 12:25 PM | Reply | Permalink
I wonder who wins that one...
October 7, 2008 11:50 AM | Reply | Permalink
As an Ohio native, I'm still pretty damn wary of these polls. If there's going to be a Bradley effect it's going to happen in Ohio and Pennsylvania, where union Dems are under heavy pressure to vote for Obama ... but racism in the end may push them to McCain. I'm actually much more hoepful for Virginia. That's the new Ohio.
http://pufferfish.typepad.com/
October 7, 2008 11:50 AM | Reply | Permalink
PA seems to be in the bag. I would not be surprised to see McCain squeak out OH, if for no other reason than this race-bating he's doing now.
Eeven if McCain does get OH, if Obama can pick up NC or VA, it won't mattter.
October 7, 2008 11:53 AM | Reply | Permalink
Colorado was "in the bag" last week...
October 7, 2008 12:03 PM | Reply | Permalink
And it remains so.
October 7, 2008 12:04 PM | Reply | Permalink
Obama (D) 51%, McCain (R) 45% - Oct 6 Rasmussen
Obama (D) 44%, McCain (R) 44% - Oct 5 Mason-Dixon
Obama (D) 44%, McCain (R) 43% - Oct 1 Ciruli
October 7, 2008 12:07 PM | Reply | Permalink
http://www.pollster.com/polls/co/08-co-pres-ge-mvo.php
October 7, 2008 12:09 PM | Reply | Permalink
Ah yes Mason Dixon, they are such a reliable polling org. Well, reliably bad.
October 7, 2008 12:18 PM | Reply | Permalink
LOL! "Ciruli"? Is that code for pollster in the bag for McCain?
October 7, 2008 12:19 PM | Reply | Permalink
LOL!
October 7, 2008 12:25 PM | Reply | Permalink
Cirulisly?
October 7, 2008 12:25 PM | Reply | Permalink
I just clicked the "CO" link on the right...no cherry picking...
http://tpmelectioncentral.talkingpointsmemo.com/statepages/colorado.php
October 7, 2008 1:21 PM | Reply | Permalink
Your point is well taken, but our prospects of taking PA and/or CO still look better than yours.
October 7, 2008 12:21 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yeah, think you're right about Penn. That state tends to run a couple points ahead of Ohio.
October 7, 2008 12:05 PM | Reply | Permalink
Hey, nice avatar Gooner!!!
October 7, 2008 12:07 PM | Reply | Permalink
That is a creepy coincidence. Almost TOO creepy.
October 7, 2008 12:10 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yes, and just ask yourself this question: which of the presidential candidates most resembles Arsene Wenger? By temperament, judgment, and stature, the answer's pretty damn obvious.
October 7, 2008 12:12 PM | Reply | Permalink
Here in PA, we have one of the nation's largest senior populations. Now that it's out that McCain wants to cut Medicare, on top of his desire to privatize Social Security, the color of the candidate seems to be having far less affect.
I'm out talking to these people every day, and I can tell you that even life-long GOPers are jumping ship.
PEACE
October 7, 2008 12:14 PM |