Polls: Obama And McCain Running Close In Key Red States
A new round of Rasmussen polls tonight shows Barack Obama and John McCain splitting some of the key swing states this election -- and on the whole, that's good news for Obama:
• Colorado: Obama 51%, McCain 46%, with a ±3% margin of error, compared to a nearly-identical 52%-45% Obama lead from a few days ago.
• Florida: McCain 49%, Obama 48%, with a ±3% margin of error, compared to the 51%-46% Obama lead from a week ago.
• Missouri: Obama 49%, McCain 44%, with a ±3% margin of error, compared to a 52%-46% Obama lead from last week.
• North Carolina: Obama 51%, McCain 48%, with ±3% margin of error, compared to a 48%-48% tied race from a week ago.
• Ohio: McCain 49%, Obama 47%, with a ±4% margin of error, compared to a 49%-49% tied race from last week.
All five of these states voted for George W. Bush in 2004. And at the rate things are going for John McCain -- with it looking less and less likely that he'll be able to pick up a Kerry state -- he'll essentially need to sweep all of them.
Check out this video with McCain and Palin. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1exiyBYnJ00
October 20, 2008 6:48 PM | Reply | Permalink
Well, no offense to Ohioans, but I hope the outcome there doesn't matter.
October 20, 2008 6:48 PM | Reply | Permalink
As a native Ohioan I couldn't agree more. If those people aren't careful they're going to be Oklahoma in 20 years. (No offense Oklahomans.)
http://pufferfish.typepad.com/
October 20, 2008 9:10 PM | Reply | Permalink
I"m not sure you can offend Oklahoma.
[rimshot]
October 20, 2008 11:04 PM | Reply | Permalink
I've done it.
October 21, 2008 7:58 AM | Reply | Permalink
Apparently. McWar is giging up on Colorado and bet on winning PA....
http://thepage.time.com/john-king-on-cnn/
If this is true, then McWar is gambling again...
Any takers...
October 20, 2008 6:49 PM | Reply | Permalink
McCain can sweep them and still lose.
October 20, 2008 6:50 PM | Reply | Permalink
How is he going to pick up Colorado when supposedly McLame is pulling out of Colorado?
October 20, 2008 6:50 PM | Reply | Permalink
McCain isn't pulling out of CO. I think the meaning of King's "give up" was lose, not surrender.
October 20, 2008 6:51 PM | Reply | Permalink
I take that back. Just listened to King. But it's crazy, they cant give up on CO, thats insane.
October 20, 2008 6:54 PM | Reply | Permalink
If you listen to what King's saying, it's even more interesting. He calls Nevada a critical state to the McCain math. The only way Nevada is *critical* to their math is if Obama wins Colorado AND Virginia, with McCain sweeping Pennsylvania, Florida, and Ohio. Then a Nevada win gives him 273 EV's, while a loss leaves him short by one (barring Main splitting their congressional dist vote).
What that means is by implication, McCain isn't just giving up Colorado, but Virginia(!!) in a effort to chase a bunch of supposedly racist voters in western Pennsylvania.
From all publicly available polling, this is crazy. What we have here is "faith based" campaigning on steroids. These guys so believe in their heart of hearts that America couldn't possibly reject their party and vote for a black man that they're willing to chase shadows to prove it. They're now banking on the worst elements of human nature to come forward and hand them a victory that they haven't worked for or earned in any way. Disgusting.
And I hope they keep it up. They're spitting in the eye of the entire country, even those dwindling people that they're asking for votes, and it'll be a cold day in hell before Americans trust these jokers again.
October 21, 2008 7:25 AM | Reply | Permalink
Sarah Palin was just down the road from me here in northern Colorado today. McCain isn't giving up here, by any means.
October 20, 2008 6:53 PM | Reply | Permalink
Excuse me - that happened to her before. They don't tell her everything.
I saw part of that on C-Span - o dear sweet Jesus~!
October 20, 2008 6:58 PM | Reply | Permalink
I agree. Didn't the same thing happen with MI? She basically knew they were pulling out of MI after I knew they were pulling out of MI and I'm not voting for McCain and I'm not from MI.
October 20, 2008 7:00 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yup yup
October 20, 2008 7:05 PM | Reply | Permalink
It still does not make sense to pull out of CO and move resources to PA. So I am highly skeptical.
McCain can win, if he gets CO, FL, VA, NC, MO, NV, OH. Leaving CO where the race is within 5, to try and flip PA where the race is 10 points, is crazy.
October 20, 2008 7:11 PM | Reply | Permalink
Internal polls must be saying something that the public polls are not, because on the surface it is crazy.
And they may be sending Sarah simply to help the down ticket candidates with fundraising and volunteers.
October 20, 2008 7:15 PM | Reply | Permalink
I think the internal poll numbers must be drastically horrible.
October 20, 2008 7:17 PM | Reply | Permalink
You're falling behind on your posting quota and your weekly TPS reports.
October 20, 2008 7:17 PM | Reply | Permalink
You know how we Socialists are.
October 20, 2008 7:33 PM | Reply | Permalink
My guess is they know they're not going to win all the battleground states so PA is their only hope. CO doesn't have enough EVs to warrant the all-out effort. Expect PA to be the Final Battle. It's do or die.
October 20, 2008 7:40 PM | Reply | Permalink
That about sums it up I think. And chances are they think the only way to make up the distance is slime, slander, and smear everyday, trying to tap the racist and anti-Islam sentiments in the rural areas. As so many have said, it's going to get real ugly.
October 20, 2008 7:44 PM | Reply | Permalink
Then they must believe that slime slander and smear will work in PA. I hope they're wrong.
October 20, 2008 7:48 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'm not overly fond of James Carville but his description of PA is pretty good: Philly and Pittsburgh seperated by Alabama.
Calling Reverand Wright, William Ayres, Reverand Wright.
Calling Reverand Wright, William Ayres, Reverand Wright.
October 20, 2008 7:53 PM | Reply | Permalink
They could try going out with some dignity, but I'd believe that when I see it. Although Powell's stinging attack on Sunday may have blunted their enthusiasm for it, along with the poll numbers that indicate that it doesn't work. They may just go down screaming "SOCIALISTS!"
October 20, 2008 7:54 PM | Reply | Permalink
"Dignity?" That's a synonym for "surrender."
October 20, 2008 8:06 PM | Reply | Permalink
I don't think the PA strategy is nuts. Basically, McCain is now pinning his campaign the the Bradley effect... Hope that the dog-whistle robo-call push most of the Bush states that are now leaning Dem back into the fold, and contest PA for insurance.
If McCain can't win most of the Bush states he's done. There's no point contesting the 265th EV -- he's got to assume that people are lying to pollsters, or that something global will turn the tide in his favor.
October 20, 2008 11:24 PM | Reply | Permalink
Well, if by 'pulling out', you mean, 'continue to do campaign rally events and run commercials on TV and radio', well then, I guess they are indeed pulling out.
I'll believe it when I see it.
October 20, 2008 7:19 PM | Reply | Permalink
They won't pull out if for no other reason than they won't undermine a struggling party infrastructure there, but it looks like they're facing the reality that they won't win there, which is big.
October 21, 2008 8:29 AM | Reply | Permalink
it's called
"anyone can be vp"
October 20, 2008 6:53 PM | Reply | Permalink
It will be interesting to watch what is happening there...
Based on the history of McWar being so incompetent, it would be a huge mistake if they were pulling out of Colorado.
October 20, 2008 6:55 PM | Reply | Permalink
Tonight in the Philadelphia TV market, a 527 ad ran, essentially blaming Obama for all the financial problems people are facing. The gist is that Obama, Dodd and Kerry refused to recognize John McCain's warning about Freddie/Fannie. Therefore, blame Obama for the financial problems.
October 20, 2008 6:57 PM | Reply | Permalink
Actually, there was two weeks too late with IA/NM, but it's a good decision. I cannot believe they're giving up on CO.
May be they're pulling out resources and hoping they can still win it. That scenario is possible though difficult.
October 20, 2008 6:57 PM | Reply | Permalink
and remember the GOP has already conceded the senate seat...
October 20, 2008 6:57 PM | Reply | Permalink
Going after PA is a ridiculous strategy at this point, but McLame doesn't really have any other options.
If Iowa, Colorado and NM are truly gone, then he HAS to pick off one of the Kerry states. There's no other way to get to 270. The only other true blue state that appears even remotely pickable is New Hampshire, which would only get him to a tie.
October 20, 2008 7:02 PM | Reply | Permalink
Wow, first Powell (given), now Adelman.
http://www.newyorker.com/online/blogs/georgepacker/2008/10/not-quite-colin.html
October 20, 2008 7:04 PM | Reply | Permalink
Remind me to send flowers to Palin when this is all over. In a time/damage ratio, she has done more damage to the Republican brand than Bush.
October 20, 2008 7:13 PM | Reply | Permalink
Thanks, Amelie.
I like the part where Adelman, a person from Nixon-Ford-Rumsfeld-Reagan establishment, says, "Not only is Sarah Palin not close to being acceptable in high office—I would not have hired her for even a mid-level post in the arms-control agency."
October 20, 2008 7:16 PM | Reply | Permalink
:)
October 20, 2008 7:19 PM | Reply | Permalink
You know what is so funny about that. It's a military joke. Like when a science nerd makes jokes about deoxyribonucleicacids and such and he is the only one to laugh at the joke.
October 20, 2008 9:40 PM | Reply | Permalink
Great link Amelie, thanks. Part of me is saying - yeah, of course, everyone should support Obama, WHY would you NOT? But the other part of is thinking there are not going to be any republicans left worth fighting with if this keeps up. Fighting is too strong - engaging with.
October 20, 2008 9:33 PM | Reply | Permalink
Pulling out of CO and banking on a huge huge comeback in PA (presumably using the Rev Wright race card)... If that's really John McCain strategy, wow. He really is going down in fiery wreckage.
October 20, 2008 7:04 PM | Reply | Permalink
Deja vu of Rudy putting all his eggs in Florida.
October 20, 2008 7:06 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yep. That's what I thought as well. Right now Obama is leading PA with 10 points. That's probably half a million votes or even more in terms of margin of victory.
It's a big gamble. Obviously they believe there are enough racists in PA.
October 20, 2008 7:10 PM | Reply | Permalink
This is driving me crazy - I thought McLame needed Co to win - I thought he had to win all of the Bush states to win. Not some of them, but all of them.
I don't get this -
October 20, 2008 7:07 PM | Reply | Permalink
Just bad campaigning. Bad people poorly organized.
October 20, 2008 7:13 PM | Reply | Permalink
He does. If he wins all the swing states excluding Colorado & New Mexico, Obama still wins. Thats why there still competing for PA even if it is a lost cause.
October 20, 2008 7:13 PM | Reply | Permalink
So are you saying McLame is gambling 5 red states for one blue state?
He's totally lost his mind - this isn't a crapshoot.
October 20, 2008 7:11 PM | Reply | Permalink
He's conceding IA, NM.
He's gambling CO for PA.
He will still compete in VA, OH, FL, MO, NC and IN.
October 20, 2008 7:14 PM | Reply | Permalink
Thank you.
Trying to keep this all straight does drive me crazy. I appreciate your helping the numbers-disabled like this -
October 20, 2008 7:17 PM | Reply | Permalink
I think it might also have something to do with campaigning in PA makes McCain look like he on the offensive to some degree, whereas CO would have fully in a red-state defensive strategy. Not much but it's all they have.
October 20, 2008 7:25 PM | Reply | Permalink
Acamus: They're way past image projections game. That's what they have done all campaign and pretty much backfired everytime.
Kerry won PA over Bush by 2%, 200,000 votes. IA, NM are 12 EVs, CO 7 EVs and PA 21 EVs.
So they conceded 12 EV, hoping 7 EVs will remain in their column without investing many resources and hoping to turn 21 PA EVs red. It's not a bad strategy but will not work.
In this political season, even with all the racist vote, Obama will at the least get a 200,000 vote margin of victory in PA.
October 20, 2008 7:39 PM | Reply | Permalink
This is exactly right, Kash. I'm BVD and I approve this message.
October 20, 2008 7:46 PM | Reply | Permalink
The drive for PA is a hoot.
But the firewall is up all over the board, in a host of Red States to boot. The McCain Camp has to select *something* to fight for.
If you're down a ton, are you going to run the ball or try to pass for quick strikes?
Pass for quick strikes (setting aside the Hail Mary analogy).
They clearly are going to focus on FL and OH. They can't even get close without them.
So what are you going to try to add to them?
Ignoring the polls, PA is the obvious one. It's got the most electorals.
Then pray that NC hold Red (good luck with Libby Dole tanking) and VA turns around (good luck with Warner running monster strong for Senate).
They can only hope that if they get Momentum in FL, PA and OH they can try to play the Hillary Momentum Meme on the final weekend of the campaign and pray the MSM buys it for a tightening race.
Their problem?
PA eats up MASSIVE amounts of advertising.
Someone here should track Obama's Local Buys in PA amd FL during the World Series, with Philly and Tampa now in it. I suspect that any ad that hasn't been bought is now getting gobbled up. No doubt they already bought a chunk of national ads on Fox - they've been all over the place on sporting events like the Olympics and College & Pro Football. The World Series had to be in Axlerod's plans as well.
We should thank Captain McCainab for chasing the Whale of PA. It's going to drain his remaining resources fast.
John
October 20, 2008 10:57 PM | Reply | Permalink
He has a razzle dazzle winky dinky plan...He will run his stealth, surge, Barbie Moose campaign.
You Betcha; bottom line is, they are out of money, out of ideas, and out of gas.
October 20, 2008 7:16 PM | Reply | Permalink
I don't care how they phrase it...They are out of cash. They had 47 Million in the bank on Oct 1...Now it is two weeks later. Do the math, they are running on fumes and have to retrograde in order to have any chance at all.
October 20, 2008 7:06 PM | Reply | Permalink
I think this is exactly on the mark. And to top it off, Obama comes in at > than $150k in September. Done done done.
October 20, 2008 7:15 PM | Reply | Permalink
Well god - how can anyone possibly see it differently?
You have to really try to see it differently - knowwamean?
October 20, 2008 7:19 PM | Reply | Permalink
And everytime I hear Palin it's $25 more to Obama.
I hope the right wingers learned something, vis a vis El Tinkerberg...
That alone has quieted the right wingers not wanting to stir the pot and help the opposition.
October 20, 2008 7:32 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'll just say what I said earlier today - Norm Coleman must be ready to kill her.
LOL!
October 20, 2008 7:58 PM | Reply | Permalink
Rasmussen must be off in OH and FL. Obama cannot be trailing, not in FL at least, especially considering today's ABC/WaPo and Gallop polls, both give Obama a solid 9 point lead nationally.
October 20, 2008 7:07 PM | Reply | Permalink
WTF
October 20, 2008 7:15 PM | Reply | Permalink
In other current events, McCain is going to lose. How does that make you feel?
October 20, 2008 7:20 PM | Reply | Permalink
Fucking troll alert.
October 20, 2008 7:20 PM | Reply | Permalink
Those of the words of Joe Biden.
Perhaps he's a troll too.
October 20, 2008 7:53 PM | Reply | Permalink
Good point! Except you quoted him, and didn't use his words. Why not?
October 20, 2008 7:56 PM | Reply | Permalink
Biden never used the words "Due to Obama's inexperience..."
If this is all you got then you're fucked.
October 20, 2008 7:57 PM | Reply | Permalink
Ooooo, inserting your own words into a quote. If you want to play with us, at least try to be legitimate. Ok?
October 21, 2008 11:24 AM | Reply | Permalink
*Troll Jizz*
October 20, 2008 7:45 PM | Reply | Permalink
McCain is gearing up for a Rev. Wright "Hail Mary". Wright wouldn't make much difference in Colorado or New Mexico.
He's going to make his last stand in Pennsylvania, along with hoping Wright will be enough to swing back/keep Florida, NC, Virginia, Missouri, Ohio. McCain's campaign probably figures Wright could be worth 1-2 (even 3) points, and in tight races that could be enough.
October 20, 2008 7:18 PM | Reply | Permalink
It would be a good strategy if they had the money to distribute the message. Wake up, they are out of money, that's why the Robocall BS!
October 20, 2008 7:21 PM | Reply | Permalink
Don't be too hard on Jonze. He worries so that we don't have to.
October 20, 2008 7:24 PM | Reply | Permalink
Ya know, I notice it's just been working so great for him so far, Jonze.
Yup yup - this smear campaign is just making all the difference.
October 20, 2008 7:21 PM | Reply | Permalink
How do you bring up Wright in a politically relevant way? And I'm not being rhetorical. How does McCain deploy Wright to reverse his 10 point deficit in PA and VA?
October 20, 2008 7:21 PM | Reply | Permalink
Wright will not play on the MSM. They have worn out the videotape. The most obvious story will be "McCain goes back on word, plays the Wright card.", which logically leads to "McCain McDesperate".
October 20, 2008 7:21 PM | Reply | Permalink
I think the Wright thing is going to totally backfire. Everyone has been there and done that, it will look (as it should) desperate and ridiculous.
October 20, 2008 7:22 PM | Reply | Permalink
Exactly, and thats how the MSM will report it. Desperation.
October 20, 2008 7:25 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yes and I hereby and forever take back every word I said in anger about Hillary Clinton on this subject - she really did do Barack and all of us a favor releasing everything she had.
I think it was dirty, but in the long run...
October 20, 2008 7:27 PM | Reply | Permalink
Whoever had based their decision on Wright are not voting Obama anyways and Obama still a 10 point lead.
Obama would love to defend a state with a 10 point lead if that's all what it takes to win the White House.
Also, PA is not a small state- I'm roughly estimating- that's a lead of half a million voters.
October 20, 2008 7:29 PM | Reply | Permalink
Playing the Wright card will only make them look even more desperate.
October 20, 2008 7:24 PM | Reply | Permalink
It will justify everything Powell said on Sunday, and give the MSM another chance to talk about Powell, which they loved to do.
October 20, 2008 7:29 PM | Reply | Permalink
Folks, I was sayin' what I figure McCain is doing, not sayin' that it will work.
October 20, 2008 8:13 PM | Reply | Permalink
After looking at those numbers again, and the reading I have done today, I am convinced that the internals look pretty bleak. No one just gives up, Obama must look unbeatable in CO.
October 20, 2008 7:25 PM | Reply | Permalink
I agree, but you never know with McCain. Nobody with that obvious of a combover makes rational decisions.
That leads me to another point... McCain called his wife a cunt because she said his hair was thinning? Thinning?! He has had the same terrible combover back to the Keating 5 days. He doesn't see this?!
McCain, delusion first.
October 20, 2008 7:30 PM | Reply | Permalink
Amelie - I suspect they're also looking at the big lead Udall has opened up in the Senate race there, and the internals in that race. Even the +7 Rasmussen lead in the most recent poll is a +5 since the last time Rasmussen polled the state. Quinni's recent +14 is up 9 from their last poll. The Suffolk is +11. PPP is +10.
Udall and Obama will have a symbiosis there, each helping the other. The Obama ground game in the state is monsterous, especially after the convention (the hidden secret of holding the final speach at Mile High as Nate at 538 and others have pointed out). This is one with mutal coat tails.
I suspect the other internals that are looking bad are that Obama isn't just killing him in Denver, but that the Ground Game has cut massively into Loyl Bushie parts of the state.
Dead state.
The McCain Camp's problem is that there are a lot of dead states out there.
John
October 20, 2008 10:46 PM | Reply | Permalink
Here is a prediction:
Obama; beginning this weekend, will steal the microphone from McCain. There will be stories on Keating, Singlaub, Liddy, POW, swiftboat, all provided for free from the MSM.
Then he will use his overwhelming financial clout, to air nothing but feel good adds going into the last week. Drowning out any message the RNC has to offer.
October 20, 2008 7:27 PM | Reply | Permalink
Sounds good to me.
I know the feel-good messages really get to me a lot more than any attack does.
October 20, 2008 7:29 PM | Reply | Permalink
Second that.
October 20, 2008 7:30 PM | Reply | Permalink
The 2008 Presidential Election Animation
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1exiyBYnJ00
October 20, 2008 7:32 PM | Reply | Permalink
This Video is Great!
"anyone can be vp"
wow
forward it on!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1exiyBYnJ00
October 20, 2008 7:34 PM | Reply | Permalink
Here's what I think McCain is counting on: Complacency amongst Obama's team. Sean at 538.com has a pretty good article on the risks:
http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/10/on-road-philadelphia-suburbs.html
October 20, 2008 7:39 PM | Reply | Permalink
Hate to put a fly in the ointment here. But here is an economic theory... It is called pent up demand. The Progressives have screwed themselves so much over the last eight years, that we will not allow it to happen again...That's why Nader is not an issue this election. That's why you are not seeing Jesse Jackson on TV every night. That's why you are not seeing left wing rants from Democratic talking heads...We want to WIN damn it...And we will not allow them to steal it this time!
October 20, 2008 7:50 PM | Reply | Permalink
Absolutely and I have thought for a long time that if they did really try to steal this election, that pent up demand would spill over in ways they never anticipated.
It's not just winger fire those two are playing with -
October 20, 2008 8:02 PM | Reply | Permalink
thank you aj for the link:)
It is really funny
October 20, 2008 7:48 PM | Reply | Permalink
Why is McCain ahead in Ohio?
October 20, 2008 7:52 PM | Reply | Permalink
Coz its still cool to hang the effigy of a black man and Joe the Plumber is a certified, winning celebrity.
O' has a better chance in FL than OH. Atleast he can remind people about their SS, HC and 401Ks.
October 20, 2008 8:02 PM | Reply | Permalink
And he doesn't have to get either of them to win. He just has to hold onto PA, IA, NM and CO. And then he's the fucking president.
October 20, 2008 8:10 PM | Reply | Permalink
Why i am not surprised McSlime is giving up on Colorado.
October 20, 2008 8:05 PM | Reply | Permalink
Why am i not surprised McSlime is giving up on Colorado. He never he had a chance due to the changing demographics in that state.
October 20, 2008 8:06 PM | Reply | Permalink
Obama's going to win Florida. I refuse to believe a majority of Florida voters could be so ignorant and misinformed (again) as to vote for John McCain. Even my 20 year old nephew donated $25 to Obama's campaign yesterday (I'm so proud!), plus he's almost on board for canvassing GOTV.
These polls are really freaking me out at the moment. Breathe . . . gasp . . . Okay, I'm done.
October 20, 2008 8:26 PM | Reply | Permalink
These polls are freaking you out? These polls are freaking out McCain.
All Obama has to do is win one of them and its over. Even if he loses them all, he can still win.
Breathing better?
October 20, 2008 8:30 PM | Reply | Permalink
Thanks Supa. Your comment brought me back down to earth. I don't take anything for granted, but the story blindsided me anyway. The next two weeks are going to be really tough on the nerves.
October 20, 2008 9:19 PM | Reply | Permalink
Dear God...I don't know how much more of this I can stand. I read one post and my spirits rise; I read another and they sink; up-down, up-down...I'm telling you, I'm a fucking wreck.
How I wish this was over and McSlime was back under his rock and Snow-shoe Barbie was back doing whatever it is she does when she's not bringing traditional Republicans together in unanimous disapproval of her. How long, Lord, how long?
I know, I know...15 days and every goddamn minute creeping past on tip-toes..arrgghhh...
October 20, 2008 8:37 PM | Reply | Permalink
Jack, I've been feeling exactly the same way you have today.
I truly wish this election was over already. My nerves can't take it.
October 20, 2008 8:39 PM | Reply | Permalink
CNN: Obama's grandmother seriously ill. Barack will leave the campaign trail and go to Hawaii. He will return for the weekend.
My thoughts and prayers are with him and his family and I wish that his grandma will recover and see him win on November 4th and sworn in as the 44th President on January 20th.
October 20, 2008 8:56 PM | Reply | Permalink
Well Crap. Hope she recovers.
October 20, 2008 9:08 PM | Reply | Permalink
Me too. Here's hoping for a speedy recovery to see her grandson become president.
October 20, 2008 9:20 PM | Reply | Permalink
Update: Barack will leave the campaign trail on Thursday and he will return on Saturday.
October 20, 2008 9:23 PM | Reply | Permalink
My thoughts go to him and the family... Hope she will get well soon.
* And given the fucking Failin dared to attack Biden when he was off the trail as the mom-in-law passed away, I fully expect even more classless act from the McScum campaign while Barak is away.
October 20, 2008 9:30 PM | Reply | Permalink
jeeze.....the possibility of losing his second "mother" on the eve of an incredibly historic election. it has been obvious throughout the campaign how close he holds his grandmother to his heart and soul.
love, light, acceptance and closure.......
October 20, 2008 9:08 PM | Reply | Permalink
We are sewing lei's for the tutu wahine!
October 20, 2008 9:17 PM | Reply | Permalink
If you are a believer, please say a prayer. If not show some effort...He won't be around the scene for 3 days...We have to pick up the slack.
October 20, 2008 9:22 PM | Reply | Permalink
I think that this will cause McLame to have to back off a bit -
if he and Painful don't, boy - they really will look bad.
October 20, 2008 9:36 PM | Reply | Permalink
This is your favorite Dragon here from Milton, Florida Early Voting started today and I proudly cast my VOTE for the Next President of these United States Barack Obama!!!I was not there with the wife but 20 Minutes and the line was already snaking down the Hall here in Santa Rosa County. They are expecting up to 80% or more to turn out for this one guys.Sadly I could not win over most of my Family but my sisters 2 Boys will probably vote for Obama.Come on all you Florida People get off your DUFFS and VOTE!!!!
October 20, 2008 9:25 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yay you!
My absentee ballot from Texas came today - I'm going to send it back tomorrow! I can't wait.
October 20, 2008 9:27 PM | Reply | Permalink
Tina though we disagree on many things we can agree on this and that is that this Country is headed in the wrong direction and that Obama is the one to lead us in a new direction!!!
October 20, 2008 9:33 PM | Reply | Permalink
We do? Man, I'm going to have to make a list of the people I've pissed off cause I can't remember them all.
Yes - we do agree that Obama is going to lead us in the new direction.
October 20, 2008 9:47 PM | Reply | Permalink
Weeeeehaaaa Draagonn - way to go. Thanks for the report!!!
October 20, 2008 9:47 PM | Reply | Permalink
Great Job Dragon but to be totally honest, THERE IS NO WAY IN HELL I would let anyone in my family vote for McCain Palin. I would give them a 5 hour dissertation on why that would be a wrgong choice if that was the case.
October 20, 2008 10:12 PM | Reply | Permalink
I pray the Good LOrd who is the Great Physician will touch and heal her body to let her see her Grandson become President!!!
October 20, 2008 9:30 PM | Reply | Permalink
Prayer to O's granny. Hope it is not that serious, and she recovers with his visit.
From Politico: Michelle will hold events in O's place Friday in Akron, Ohio, and Columbus. Obama will scrap scheduled rallies Thursday in Des Moines, Iowa, and Madison, Wisc. He will instead head to Indianapolis, Ind., for a morning event, leave for Hawaii and return to the campaign trail Saturday, making stops in the West.
October 20, 2008 9:40 PM | Reply | Permalink
That potent ground game will help us win all five of those states. I remember watching that Dan Abrams show before it was cancelled right around the North Carolina primaries. A Republican strategist was talking about North Carolina and said that if a Republican lost North Carolina they don't deserve to win the presidency.
October 20, 2008 9:33 PM | Reply | Permalink
I hope she makes it long enough to actually see him elected and inaugurated - I know that has to mean more to him than almost anything -
'
October 20, 2008 9:49 PM | Reply | Permalink
How the West was lost
McCain facing the grim reality of imminent defeat quietly pulls the plug on New Mexico and Colorado.
So if the McCain travel schedule is now exclusively up and down the eastern seaboard (NC,PA,FLA,OH and PA)expect Nevada to flip too.
I didn't think in my lifetime I would ever see the evil empire...I mean the republicans would be facing a political tsunami.
October 20, 2008 9:50 PM | Reply | Permalink
O I did. I knew it would be here by the end of Commander Coocoo's 2d term, if not before.
:)
October 20, 2008 9:58 PM | Reply | Permalink
Wing nuts are already calling Barack's Grandmothers illness a stunt. That if it was so dire he'd leave now, but is sticking around to Thursday and only after a morning rally in Indianapolis (and canceling Iowa and Wisconsin rallies which are safe(r) States for Obama/Biden), while staying Tuesday and Wednesday for key Swing State rallies.
That he's trying to stretch this out by not coming back until Saturday in hopes to stop McCain/Palin from playing Rev. Wright because if they do so when he is gone visiting a very ill Grandmother the McCain Campaign will look terrible, and by the time Obama gets back, there will be about a week to go and the "Wright Card" will be rushed and seem very planned.
October 20, 2008 10:10 PM | Reply | Permalink
Who cares what they think. They knew McCain was pulling a straight up stunt cancelling his campaign so theyare hungry to make it even. The difference is Obama doesn't pander and he doesn't pull stunts.
October 20, 2008 10:27 PM | Reply | Permalink
How so predictable!
October 20, 2008 10:30 PM | Reply | Permalink
Which makes them look like the knuckle-dragging, mouth breathing, raised-by-wolves rude mean idiots they are.
October 20, 2008 10:34 PM | Reply | Permalink
Obviously McCain's polls must show an opening in Pennsylvania with the Wright smears (desperation has no boundaries). Or they may see an opportunity to steal the election in Pennsylvania through lawsuits. Hopefully Rendell can prevent that from happening.
I too hope Obama's grandmother can live long enough to see him win the presidency.
October 20, 2008 10:34 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'm trying (not very successfully) not to pay too much attention to the polls, but I wonder what happened to cause that shift back in McCain's favor in Florida. (I blame Sarah Silverman.)
And I'm praying for Obama's grandmother, and I hope with all my heart that she will live to see him elected.
October 20, 2008 10:45 PM | Reply | Permalink
There's something goofy about the Florida numbers here. I buy the rest of them. But the swing in FL is very uncharacteristic for Rasmussen - while he obviously shows shifts from week to week like any pollster, he rarely shows big swings like this. His shifts are usuall more subtle. Heck, even the shift towards Obama in NC seems a bit much from a Rasmussen perspective. It's not like anything significant happened between now and last week to cause such a large shift. I don't get it.
This was a Fox/Ras set of polls. I've seen weeks where Ras has done two polls in the same state - one for Fox, one for himself. Wonder if he'll do another FL poll later this week that may show the race back in O's favor. Who knows. But I have a big problem with a 6pt swing in one week coming from one of the more stable pollsters around.
October 20, 2008 10:56 PM | Reply | Permalink
Why the surprise?
Margin of error is three percentage points, 19 times in 20.
So just assume this poll, at 49%-48%, is off by three points in McCain's favor. And assume the previous one favored Obama by three.
Average them out and Obama is still ahead by two points. Sounds reasonable.
Nothing to sweat about.
October 21, 2008 1:48 AM | Reply | Permalink
Keith was at his best tonight, the 2nd time with his Special Comment. This one is comparable to the 1st one. You know which one I am talking about.
This is a must watch.
October 20, 2008 11:11 PM | Reply | Permalink
Just heard on the local news that so far in early voting in New Mexico, Democrats have requested almost 8000 ballots to the Repugs' just over 2000.
October 21, 2008 12:16 AM | Reply | Permalink
On his way back from Hawaii, perhaps Obama should stop in northern California and go see Neil Young, find out what is what in regards to the letter concerning McMajorShit that the rocker has up on his website.
http://www.neilyoung.com/lwwtoday/index.html
Because I doubt that the singer/songwriter would feature the letter (and it's seemingly too good to be true allegations) on his site if there was any possiblity that it is bogus.
Moreover, why can't someone of the caliber of a Josh Marshall, an Andrew Sullivan or an Arriana Huffington simply contact Mr. Young and find out whether he has vetted the allegations made in the letter? Are they all too timid, too afraid of the mad dog Repug attack machine?
October 21, 2008 1:15 AM | Reply | Permalink
John, you've been pushing that meme for days. Point taken; move on.
October 21, 2008 1:25 AM | Reply | Permalink
Hey listen Curly -
if Sullivan can continue to question the birth (and provenance) of Trig Palin, I reserve the right to spotlight the disturbing letter illuminated on Neil Young's website. Because if the allegations in it are true, we are faced with a far greater danger than the issue of the veracity of some Barbie the Moosehunter. That danger would be a rather unhinged personality in charge of the Oval Office.
October 21, 2008 3:11 AM | Reply | Permalink
We have enough evidence that McCain is unhinged without pushing a letter of "indeterminate" status (see Snopes) that's already been circulating for weeks. Are you Neil Young's agent or something?
October 21, 2008 8:45 AM | Reply | Permalink
http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2008/10/20/opinion/polls/main4533712.shtml
October 21, 2008 5:31 AM | Reply | Permalink
Call Drudge -
Obama leads McCain 50 percent to 42 percent among likely U.S. voters in the latest three-day tracking poll, up from a 6-point advantage for Obama on Monday. The telephone poll has a margin of error of 2.9 percentage points.
"It was another very big day for Obama," said pollster John Zogby. "Things clearly are moving in Obama's direction."
http://www.reuters.com/article/newsOne/idUSTRE49J0LF20081021
October 21, 2008 5:53 AM | Reply | Permalink
I like this from this:
October 21, 2008 8:27 AM | Reply | Permalink
"I like this from this"? - I need some more coffee.
October 21, 2008 8:34 AM | Reply | Permalink
OT...... check out the photo of Barack's grandfather, at about Barack's age, over at Andrew Sullivan's Daily Dish,,, 21 Oct, 12:26am,.
Barack and his grandfather could be twin brothers,,,, ears and all.
October 21, 2008 6:09 AM | Reply | Permalink
To point out what should be obvious now -- when you have about half of the polls moving slightly one way, while the other half moves in the other direction, all within the margin of error, you're probably just looking at statistical noise.
In other words, there isn't a story here.
October 21, 2008 6:21 AM | Reply | Permalink
Hey guys hate to be the bringer of bad news but looking for a way to win without Colorado doesn't mean they are pulling out of Colorado. It's like us looking for a way to win without Ohio. The difference is they don't have many other ways to win other than stealing a state that went for Kerry.
October 21, 2008 8:06 AM | Reply | Permalink
It does mean that they will be throwing fewer resources at the former red-state CO, and given Obama's bankroll and GOTV infrastructure, that is huge. And it means McCain's camp is going after a state that the public polls show in the double digits, although they are indicating their internal polls show it much closer. If this is bad news, I'll take it.
October 21, 2008 8:12 AM | Reply | Permalink
With only two weeks to go and the double digit behind in most polls, I do think it's just a reckless gamble on their side if CNN's reporting is true. That said, if they plan to bring up Wright (and I think they do, no matter what), PA would be one of those places it could resonate with voters most. And it has many EVs. It's still a gamble, but I can see the reasoning.
October 21, 2008 9:09 AM | Reply | Permalink
I live in Michigan (right above Ohio). All I want to know is what is wrong with Ohio??????
They have many of the same problems as Michigan (loss of manufacturing jobs) and yet they are for McCain?
What is wrong with Ohio? Are they racist?
I just don't get it.
October 21, 2008 8:37 AM | Reply | Permalink
I think it has to do with the power of the local community sub-culture. Southern Ohio in particular is much more similiar to Kentucky and West Virginia (both of which haven't seen great economic times), and because of it hasn't been a desirable place to move to, there isn't an influx of new blood into the state to counter the traditional sub-culture.
October 21, 2008 8:44 AM | Reply | Permalink
You are right (I was in Ohio before).
October 21, 2008 9:01 AM | Reply | Permalink
Here's a look at Ohio's presidential voting history going back to 1960.
http://www.cleveland.com/open/presidentialelections/
It's described as a swing state but it is mostly red. I am unsure of the racism factor in Ohio or any other state. "My parents voted republican" is the refrain I hear from the republican voters I know.
October 21, 2008 8:47 AM | Reply | Permalink
Well Ohio is voing their racist attitudes then. Why folks who are in desperate economic staights would ever vote for McCain/Palin can only mean they are racist. The same goes for Kentucky and West Virginia. Watching and hearing the folks at McCain/Palin rallies show only bitter, racist and ignorant white people (I am white). I am ashamed of them. These are the same folks that claim the Republican Party was picked by God. The same folks that claim the Republican Party has a lock on "family values".
I just want to move forward and get this horrible past of the last 8 years behind us.
I fear that the Repubs will just steal the election no matter how many thousands of voters we have.
October 21, 2008 8:54 AM | Reply | Permalink
We don't need Ohio, WV, or Kentucky to get to the White House. And maybe having a black president and having the economy turn around will do more for moving past racism than anything since the civil rights movement.
October 21, 2008 9:04 AM | Reply | Permalink
I'm with you on the fear factor. I feel in my bones we'll have to win this thing by an LBJ landslide to prevent them from pulling a hat trick (3-in-a-row for those who don't follow hockey).
The GOTV machine is critical for the win. I volunteered to drive voters to the polls all day here in Mpls; I may limit that to the morning so I can drive up to the 6th CD and run counter-voter-supression operations. My suburban has 225k miles on it and I don't care what happens to it. (yes, it's a planet-killer but my wife and I have six kids [defense!: blended family; total of five parents covering these six leaders of tomorrow]).
Remember, it ain't paranoia when you *know* they're out to get you. We gotta run hard past the finish line.
October 21, 2008 9:05 AM | Reply | Permalink
Regardless of if he concedes CO or not, I think he's running an EXTREMELY uphill battle.
He probably sees a 286-252 Obama win if Obama wins the Kerry states + VA, CO, IA, & NM which is extremely likely to be the end result at this point if the election is today. That leaves him to need PA to wipe out exactly ALL EV from those Obama pickups except VA's which puts it at 273-265 for a McCain win.
The NV problem comes in if Obama wins it because it puts it at 270-268 for an Obama win.
That 270-268 I just mentioned, to sum it up, means NV, VA, CO, IA, & NM flip to blue, and PA flips to red. That's why NV is so important to keep and PA has to be won since they think their chances in CO & VA (and of course IA & NM to a larger degree) are shot to hell.
Flipping NH to red on top of all that would give McCain a win (272-266). That's probably his next hope because there aren't really any other blue states to win for McCain and I'm seeing that PA would be harder to flip than NH. Its all still most likely futile though.
To compound the above written statements, what happens if Obama picks off Missouri or Florida or Ohio or Florida or North Carolina on top of it all? That's not as imminent as the other states listed above, but a major possibility.
FiveThirtyEight.com backs up what I'm talking about, for the most part.
I'm an election junkie when it comes to the math of this election. Don't believe me? Look at the page I've worked on for a while now:
2008 Electoral Vote Projection Summary. Please don't haX0r my box. Its my home PC running my webserver.
October 21, 2008 9:09 AM | Reply | Permalink
I, for one, will not haX0r your box; if only because I haven't the slightest notion what that could possibly mean.
:-P
October 21, 2008 9:51 AM | Reply | Permalink
Okay, no worries, we will not . . .
October 21, 2008 9:54 AM | Reply | Permalink
I hate Rasmussen.
October 21, 2008 10:00 AM | Reply | Permalink
When Ohio lost industry and with it the trade union majority which would block vote democratic it allowed the red parts of the state to assert themselves. Heck even SE Ohio almost over to Cinci had a strong labor movement with coal and steel, but alas that is all gone just as in the Lake Erie former industral counties.
October 21, 2008 11:42 AM | Reply | Permalink