Polls: Obama Ahead In Ohio; Vaults Far Ahead In Pennsylvania
A new pair of Marist polls gives Barack Obama the lead in the two big swing states of Ohio and Pennsylvania -- and it may well be that Pennsylvania no longer should even be called a swing state.
In Ohio: Obama 49%, McCain 45%, with a ±3.5% margin of error. A month ago, Obama had a 47%-45% lead.
In Pennsylvania: Obama 53%, McCain 41%, well outside the ±3.5% margin of error, compared to a 49%-44% Obama lead a month ago. This is consistent with other polls that have shown Obama taking a double-digit lead here.
The polls also show that Obama's favorability ratings are much better than McCain's. In Ohio, Obama is at 60% favorable and 37% unfavorable, compared to 54%-44% favorability for McCain. In Pennsylvania, Obama is at 65%-34%, and McCain at 55%-43%.
The fat lady's last notes have already started to fade away -
October 13, 2008 11:49 AM | Reply | Permalink
I knew that 'Pennsyl-tucky' would come around. There may be a lot of p.o.'d quasi-racists here in the Keystone State -- but many of them are more worried about the economy and their jobs than they are about a black dude running the show.
http://thepajamapundit.com/
October 13, 2008 12:19 PM | Reply | Permalink
My wife's Pennsylvanian (in the 'tucky part of the state (excuse me, "commonwealth")) parents never talk politics. Her dad, very union, retired steel worker, has been known to say he's a Republican. But they've been showing signs of liking Obama starting around mid-summer.
White working class Pennsylvanian's dig Obama. It's a fact.
October 13, 2008 12:26 PM | Reply | Permalink
But . . . what of the PA PUMAs?
October 13, 2008 11:50 AM | Reply | Permalink
The PUMAs have lost most of their steam. Like I mentioned in another comment, most folks that I know in PA are more concerned about their jobs and the economy than they are about any grudge they have from the Democratic primary or any weird 'I won't vote for him because he's black' types of feelings.
http://thepajamapundit.com/
October 13, 2008 12:23 PM | Reply | Permalink
So this, I guess, is right where McCain wants him? In the White House, essentially?
October 13, 2008 11:51 AM | Reply | Permalink
He HAS to stay in PA, it would be a sign of total turmoil if he pulled out now.
October 13, 2008 11:52 AM | Reply | Permalink
You really think something that clear cut occurs to McLame? If it did, he never would have pretendsuspended his campaign or pulled out of Michigan.
October 13, 2008 11:55 AM | Reply | Permalink
I think it is only a matter of time at this rate (and not a long time) before McCain is obliged to spend his time defending Texas and Arizona. VA is pulling away from him, and so are CO, NC, NH and OH. FL, IA, NM, PA and MI have already done pulled away. Give it another week and today's swing states will be in the comfortably blue column and today's "lean McCain" will all become swingers. GA, ND and WV are already showing early signs of that movement. Can TX and AZ be far behind?
October 13, 2008 12:03 PM | Reply | Permalink
I think so too - and god I love it, Missouri! It's really really happening!
October 13, 2008 12:23 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yoo hoo!!
I can't wait for the RNC to start to cut and run from McCain's campaign. Once they give up on him and stop spending money, the last crutch will give way.
October 13, 2008 11:52 AM | Reply | Permalink
Exactly.
What will happen first, McCain running out of ideas or running out of money ?
(I posted this in an earlier thread but it seems more appropriate here.)
October 13, 2008 11:56 AM | Reply | Permalink
IDEAS?!? When did the McCain campaign have any of those?
October 13, 2008 11:59 AM | Reply | Permalink
Knee-jerk reactions are ideas? I never knew that. Thanks!
October 13, 2008 12:04 PM | Reply | Permalink
knee-jerk ? that is an ageist attack. :)
October 13, 2008 12:09 PM | Reply | Permalink
But this was before McCain's big speech where he said pretty much the same things he always says.
Cut Taxes
700 Billion yada yada
Cut Taxes
Cut Taxes
I was a POW
October 13, 2008 11:52 AM | Reply | Permalink
You have a point. This polling data is all pre-*****REBOOTMENTUM*****.
October 13, 2008 11:55 AM | Reply | Permalink
Between Biden and Michelle alone, there are 7 events in 2 days in Ohio. The Obama campaign is planning more than 20 events in Ohio alone before the election day. We will win Ohio. I really believe this.
October 13, 2008 11:54 AM | Reply | Permalink
The Bradley Effect – Selective Memory
By V. Lance Tarrance, Jr.
Now that polls indicate Senator Barack Obama is the favorite to win, some analysts predict a racially biased “Bradley Effect” could prevent Obama from winning a majority on November 4th. That is a pernicious canard and is unworthy of 21st century political narratives. I should know. I was there in 1982 at “ground zero” in California when I served George Deukmejian as his general election pollster and as a member of his strategy team when he defeated African-American Democratic California gubernatorial candidate Tom Bradley, not once but twice, in 1982 and again in 1986.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2008/10/the_bradley_effect_selective_m.html
October 13, 2008 11:55 AM | Reply | Permalink
A Repug strategist now says the Bradley Effect is bullshit.
Good.
How these myths get ahold of our thinking about elections isn't really a mystery, but how this one held on so damn long is.
One fucking mayoral race in 1982 is supposed to be a template for this election?
I don't think so.
October 13, 2008 11:58 AM | Reply | Permalink
That isn't just a Republican strategist, that is the man who worked in that campaign in 82. Fantastic article that everyone should read.
October 13, 2008 12:13 PM | Reply | Permalink
Nice article.
October 13, 2008 12:02 PM | Reply | Permalink
The Bradley effect, 25 years later than it's tragic apparition, is largely moribund, I believe. It WAS real then, unfortunately.
October 13, 2008 12:03 PM | Reply | Permalink
How does the Bradley Effect work with absentee ballots?
October 13, 2008 12:07 PM | Reply | Permalink
How does the Bradley Effect work, period - Dallas elected a black mayor twice - by huge majorities.
October 13, 2008 12:10 PM | Reply | Permalink
I think there will be a reverse Bradley effect and it won't be just black voters. It's going to be red state white voters who will vote Obama but won't tell anybody because they are afraid of the reaction from their friends.
October 13, 2008 12:10 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yes, and this will henceforth be known as the "Barackly Effect."
October 13, 2008 12:22 PM | Reply | Permalink
Obama effect man, Obama effect.
October 13, 2008 12:24 PM | Reply | Permalink
Or, maybe, McCain Shame.
October 13, 2008 12:33 PM | Reply | Permalink
So with that speech McCain just gave, that was suppose to make everything alright? Hmmmmm! It just shows that Steve Schmidt and Rick Davis are terrible campaign managers. They took a guy with a maverick image and made him into a race bating, erratic old man with a hot side kick.
October 13, 2008 11:56 AM | Reply | Permalink
Yeah, shameless blaze of glory for McShame in VA Beach. I forced myself to watch the end of his speech so I could watch what must be the last gasp of the Republican Party and their whole criminal syndicate. It was a disgusting speech.
October 13, 2008 11:57 AM | Reply | Permalink
Even if McCain could appeal to a base a whole lot broader than the voters who feared "Arab" skin color, I can't see how he can possibly divorce himself from the Cheney/Bush toboggan to social and economic hell. Sure works for me.
(Look at the whistles and bells TPM!!!! Preview buttons and everything!)
October 13, 2008 11:57 AM | Reply | Permalink
THIS
October 13, 2008 11:59 AM | Reply | Permalink
IS
October 13, 2008 12:01 PM | Reply | Permalink
EXCELLENT
October 13, 2008 12:07 PM | Reply | Permalink
NEWS
October 13, 2008 12:10 PM | Reply | Permalink
FOR
October 13, 2008 12:14 PM | Reply | Permalink
CHUCK
October 13, 2008 12:26 PM | Reply | Permalink
MANGIONE (?)
October 13, 2008 12:34 PM | Reply | Permalink
FOR
October 13, 2008 12:15 PM | Reply | Permalink
GRANDPA!!!
October 13, 2008 12:42 PM | Reply | Permalink
Now my avatar is all crappy! :(
October 13, 2008 12:44 PM | Reply | Permalink
He came in with a bang and goes out on a whimper.
October 13, 2008 12:00 PM | Reply | Permalink
When was this "bang"? I didn't hear a bang.
October 13, 2008 12:55 PM | Reply | Permalink
Someone explain to me how this so called Bradley Effect could actually be real? If it was, Dallas would never have elected Ron Kirk as one of our all-time most popular two-term mayors.
October 13, 2008 12:01 PM | Reply | Permalink
Testing? Is this working?
I am now mostman2 until mostman is allowed to login again.
Anyway - does anyone know of a place that is graphing the MC Penn tracker? I found one that was updated until 10/8 - but nothing with the rest. Perhaps I will do it myself.
October 13, 2008 12:01 PM | Reply | Permalink
NEWS
October 13, 2008 12:02 PM | Reply | Permalink
Did anybody else see Matt Lauer ask Jim Cramer if the market tanked last week because traders were afraid of what an Obama administration would do in the White House? Cramer said he didn't think so but I think he was a shocked at the question.
October 13, 2008 12:06 PM | Reply | Permalink
I've been expecting that line of attack for a couple weeks. Someone fed Matt that question - it was _seriously_ obvious. The only part missing was the "Some people are saying..."
October 13, 2008 12:13 PM | Reply | Permalink
My guess is it was David Gregory.
October 13, 2008 12:22 PM | Reply | Permalink
OHHHHH, Don't mention that snide sock puppet! I can't take him!
October 13, 2008 1:01 PM | Reply | Permalink
Last week as the markets teetered on the edge of destruction, the Alaska Legislature report came out late Friday evening. At the moment, the markets are on/about 500 to the good. I'm no Krugman, nor have I sat in any of his classes, but I'd venture to say that after reading the report, traders would prefer Obama in the Oval Office than McCain.
October 13, 2008 12:14 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yeah.
Watch the market rise after the election.
October 13, 2008 12:24 PM | Reply | Permalink
And continue to rise during an Obama presidency.
October 13, 2008 12:29 PM | Reply | Permalink
And all that imaginary money lost during the last year will become real again and things will get back to normal. As for republicans, our mental health facilities may get overloaded.
October 13, 2008 12:47 PM | Reply | Permalink
There was also folks talking about an "Obama Effect" possibly in this election where folks in Red States or in republican families are polled saying they'd vote for McCain, but in the privacy of the voter booth will cast their vote for Obama.
October 13, 2008 12:31 PM | Reply | Permalink
This is what I'm thinking. :)
October 13, 2008 12:56 PM | Reply | Permalink
I don't know about you guys, but I am watching the election on FOX. LMAO the somber mood of that chennel will be worth all the BS they spouted this election alone.
October 13, 2008 12:47 PM | Reply | Permalink
Help, my posts aren't working
October 13, 2008 1:02 PM | Reply | Permalink
Now it did.
October 13, 2008 1:09 PM | Reply | Permalink
V. Lance Tarrance, Jr. is a Repub operative of the highest order. We should be skeptical of anything he says, or perhaps ignore completely.
He currently is working for the McInsane campaign ferchrissakes.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lance_Tarrance
If he says there is no Bradley Effect, that makes me worried. Why is he injecting himself into this? Some sort of playing the expectations game, or trying to lull Obama workers into complacency?
Something's up, but if we all volunteer and work our tails off these next couple of weeks, it won't matter what games they play.
October 13, 2008 1:05 PM | Reply | Permalink
V. Lance Tarrance, Jr. is a Repub operative of the highest order. We should be skeptical of anything he says, or perhaps ignore completely.
He currently is working for the McInsane campaign ferchrissakes.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lance_Tarrance
If he says there is no Bradley Effect, that makes me worried. Why is he injecting himself into this? Some sort of playing the expectations game, or trying to lull Obama workers into complacency?
Something's up, but if we all volunteer and work our tails off these next couple of weeks, it won't matter what games they play.
October 13, 2008 1:06 PM | Reply | Permalink
From a post by Josh on the front page:
Oh, those jokers at MN State U! Everybody in Minnesooota loves goofing on North Dakota!
October 13, 2008 1:12 PM | Reply | Permalink