Polls: McCain's Pennsylvania Push Stalling Out
So has John McCain's big play for Pennsylvania, where he's hoping to poach 21 electoral votes out of the Democratic column, been paying off in the opinion polls?
The answer: Not in any way to speak of -- even though McCain and Palin have have each visited the state many times in the last two weeks, and Palin is herself spending all of today there.
McCain's own level of support has recovered somewhat from a deep hole he was in weeks ago -- when the economic crisis hit, he was down by as much as 15 points -- but his gains haven't significantly weakened Barack Obama's position. McCain has simply grabbed back some of his lost support from the undecided column, but Obama hasn't actually lost much from what he gained during the same period.
The graph from Pollster.com illustrates the situation very clearly:
Only two polls in the last week, from Mason-Dixon and Strategic Vision (R), have put Obama below 50% support, while most others have him above that key level. For example, CNN has Obama up 55%-43%, and the local college Franklin & Marshall has him up 53%-40%.
Obama should still be expected to score a decent-sized victory here, unless the polls turn out to be drastically wrong or show a dramatic swing to McCain in the next few days.
There comes a point, my dear, when probabilities like this are reduced to near zero and I would say we past that point already.
October 31, 2008 3:54 PM | Reply | Permalink
Like when we acknowledged the prospect of 5 million volunteers working Obama's ground game around the country.
I guess that Community Organizer thing IS good for something ...
October 31, 2008 5:57 PM | Reply | Permalink
yes! what we need is a community organizer for president. we've all seen how mccain's campaign almost fell apart in the primaries. that is what he'll do to our country!
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obamam 2008
"Mad McCain" videos: http://tv1.com/playlists/show/11
October 31, 2008 6:21 PM | Reply | Permalink
yes! what we need is a community organizer for president. we've all seen how mccain's campaign almost fell apart in the primaries. that is what he'll do to our country!
--------
obamam 2008
"Mad McCain" videos: http://tv1.com/playlists/show/11
October 31, 2008 6:22 PM | Reply | Permalink
Like when we acknowledged the prospect of 5 million volunteers working Obama's ground game around the country.
I guess that Community Organizer thing IS good for something ...
October 31, 2008 6:03 PM | Reply | Permalink
McCain and Palin have given us no details as to how they are going to put this country back on the right track. All I hear is country first, and Barack knows this person and Barack that... This is getting so tired, and for all of you morons that vote for McCain/Palin, I hope you've enjoyed the last 6 years, because we're going to get more of the same if they win; in competency, stay the course even though I'm going the wrong way, Brownie you're sure doing a heck of a job, birthday cake on the strip (BushMcCain) while a natural disaster is occurring, a VP that doesn't know their role Palin is just like Cheney in that way, rich get richer, poor get homeless, penniless, no healthcare, no jobs (they all go overseas, rising food costs, a bad education system, and maybe even another war.)
Get the booze ready...please and I don’t drink, bring me some tissue, cause here comes more sh!t rolling down hill if McCain/Palin win.
October 31, 2008 7:02 PM | Reply | Permalink
Oh wait, don't tell me - is McCain pulling out of PA to "spend more time with his family" or something??
I can jsut picture Tucker Bounds right now - "Yeah, we know we can win PA, so we're moving onto other states Obama may be more competitive in."
PU-LEEEEZE!
October 31, 2008 3:55 PM | Reply | Permalink
Like, say, Arizona?
October 31, 2008 4:10 PM | Reply | Permalink
"You know the state I'm talking about.........."
That interview on CNN was pretty damn funny.
October 31, 2008 4:14 PM | Reply | Permalink
I can't help but think that Campbell Brown would've smacked it out of his festering gobutit. She's been the most aggressive talking head this season.
October 31, 2008 4:17 PM | Reply | Permalink
I used to think Campbell Brown was starting to rip off Olbermann's rants, but she's definitely holding her own in her own unique way! I hope she keeps that segment up, especially after her cussing out Libby Dole the other night.
Speaking of Libby, where's Bob Dole been lately?
October 31, 2008 4:22 PM | Reply | Permalink
Libby has a new, second anti-god ad running today, did you see it? So desperate.
October 31, 2008 4:24 PM | Reply | Permalink
That stuff really makes me physically ill. So disgusting, so low.
October 31, 2008 4:35 PM | Reply | Permalink
Really really OT, but this is the first time I've seen you today. Yesterday there was a long thread about autisim and I was wondering if you've ever read the book "Send in the Idiots" by Kamran Nazeer? VERY interesting book!
October 31, 2008 4:45 PM | Reply | Permalink
Hey! Thanks for the recommendation. I've had the book in mind for some time. Just ordered it on Amazon per your nudge.
What brought you to that book?
October 31, 2008 5:31 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'm a neurogeneticist and the lab I'm in is looking at the genetics of all sorts of CNS-type diseases (autisim, suicide [!], Tourette's, SMA, etc.). One of the researchers gave a presentation on the status of her project on autism a few months ago and in the general discussion afterwards she mentioned the book; I didn't have any other impetus for looking at it, but I'm one of the world's voracious readers so I, too, got it from Amazon. Read it in one setting on a weekend and was just fascinated. Enjoy!!
October 31, 2008 9:27 PM | Reply | Permalink
That second ad was probably cut, paid for and scheduled for air before the broo-haha over the first one, so it just released.
Then again, it'll hurt her even more, so I'm starting to wonder why they let the second ad go on the air.
Then again, why do I care?? I wouldn't vote for her anyway!
October 31, 2008 4:39 PM | Reply | Permalink
I think his Viagra contract expired and with Libby out of the house so much these days, I'm guessing he's cruisin' the Internets looking for a little action.
October 31, 2008 4:24 PM | Reply | Permalink
OMG, I know sooooooo many right wingers, many of whom are great friends of mine (and very normal!) - I sent that YouTube clip of Goldfarb getting reamed on CNN to all of them...and not one single word back in retaliation! NOT-A-ONE!
October 31, 2008 4:19 PM | Reply | Permalink
PA hasn't been at risk in ages. This has been a great fake job by the Obama Campaign to get McCain to sink time and limited resources into a state they weren't going to win. End result: less resources down the stretch and the vaunted 72 Hour GOP GOTV underfunded. Oh... and Obama taking PA comfortably.
John
October 31, 2008 3:56 PM | Reply | Permalink
Woah, I never thought of that - PA as rope-a-dope. Brilliant!
October 31, 2008 4:45 PM | Reply | Permalink
McCain is full of crap,. just like MSNBC. The other MSNBC was pimping a MD poll that was 5 points apart, while that same day there were 4 PA polls showing the race between 11 and 15 points, yet no mention of them .
By the way, here is where 3BlueDudes.com Election Projection database has the race
http://3bluedudes.com/?p=945
here is the database
http://3bluedudes.com/ProjectDatabase.htm
October 31, 2008 3:58 PM | Reply | Permalink
Never let the news get in the way of ratings. You think profits will come if no one is watching? No wonder you're a Democrat.
October 31, 2008 4:02 PM | Reply | Permalink
No wonder you're a Democrat.
Right, because Republicans have just spent the last eight years showing how well they understand business and the economy.
No wonder you're a moron.
October 31, 2008 4:40 PM | Reply | Permalink
Um, that was sarcastic.
October 31, 2008 5:03 PM | Reply | Permalink
Hence the blue state avatar ;-)
October 31, 2008 5:42 PM | Reply | Permalink
That is a subtle hint ;)
October 31, 2008 5:56 PM | Reply | Permalink
Unfortunately the Republicans don't have to understand the business and economy - they understand how to rig the election and hack the electronic voting:
check out this deeply shocking stuff on Huffington:
(most shocking being how it shows the way the Democratic machines have their heads in the clouds on it)
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/bob-fitrakis-and-harvey-wasserman/beware-the-twin-towers-of_b_139299.html
October 31, 2008 6:30 PM | Reply | Permalink
Mark,
some talk shows pick the closest poll so they can make it look like a horse race. This gives them something to babble about.
October 31, 2008 4:20 PM | Reply | Permalink
A local writer has a nice Shakespearean take on McCain in the Mpls. Star Tribune:
October 31, 2008 4:00 PM | Reply | Permalink
My kid's a Shakespeare buff. She'll love this, thanks!
October 31, 2008 4:18 PM | Reply | Permalink
Me thinks McPalin know PA is out of reach, so they're focusing on eeking out an Ohio win...McDepends has been there two straight days doing 3-4 rallies per day.
DESPERATE!! I say let them have OH because we really won't need it when all is said and done...BUT, Ohio would be a sweet state to win for bragging rights, though!
October 31, 2008 4:02 PM | Reply | Permalink
I really want to win here in Ohio so my wingnut coworkers will be DOUBLY despondent on Wednesday. I will have great fun pointing and laughing.
October 31, 2008 4:06 PM | Reply | Permalink
We're going to win Ohio.
Our GOTV and voter protection programs here in Ohio will blow Grampy & Vampy out of the water.
I guarantee it!
October 31, 2008 4:19 PM | Reply | Permalink
Love that.
October 31, 2008 4:25 PM | Reply | Permalink
Thanks for the efforts!!!
October 31, 2008 4:32 PM | Reply | Permalink
Doh! I just got message saying TPM is over capacity. Watch out election night!
October 31, 2008 4:35 PM | Reply | Permalink
Grampy and Vampy! That's hot!
October 31, 2008 4:44 PM | Reply | Permalink
Been guaranteeing it all season, and we love you for it. Confidence and ground game. If I wasn't such a Badger fan, I'd high five you, Buckeye.
So I'll just stoop to giving you a terrorist fist-bump.
October 31, 2008 5:44 PM | Reply | Permalink
Pointing and laughing is not the answer.
October 31, 2008 6:45 PM | Reply | Permalink
Weren't you the same guy who said we shouldn't be over-confident and posted a link to the newsweek blog talking about McCain's chances in PA?
October 31, 2008 4:06 PM | Reply | Permalink
That Newsweek piece highlighted PA, but was also a warning for all battleground states. I'm confident in PA because Obama still has a double digit lead there in most polls.
BUT, I'm still hesitant to declare full victory because polls are starting to close in. Until I start seeing a bump from Wednesday, I'll start feeling better about a COUNTRY-WIDE win.
But PA is ours.
Stop going all "gotcha journalism" on me or I'll sick McCain and Palin on you! HAHA ;-)
October 31, 2008 4:30 PM | Reply | Permalink
haha
October 31, 2008 4:33 PM | Reply | Permalink
But PA is ours.
Heh.
What a difference a day makes.
October 31, 2008 5:21 PM | Reply | Permalink
Respectfully disagree. Ohio needs to be part of Obama's endgame. And I think he agrees because he had three, repeat three rallies there today. One with Biden and two with Hillary. And that's just 4 days before election. Plus the ground game will be working to GOTV, which McCain cannot match.
No, Obama is not taking Ohio for granted, and he should not.
20 EV is still 20 EV, and twice the EVs of Arizona.
October 31, 2008 7:59 PM | Reply | Permalink
They have to motivate their troops somehow. So trying to make the race seem tight is perhaps one of the few reasons to get some folks out to vote. Pretty discouraging for repubs if they just admit defeat. So ... they soldier on...
The long march - to defeat!
October 31, 2008 4:07 PM | Reply | Permalink
I admit I was a little nervous about PA for a while. Esp considering Obama had a difficult time during the month leading upto the PA primary.
I think I have seen enough data and evidence to feel fully assured.
October 31, 2008 4:08 PM | Reply | Permalink
god, i love the smell of flopsweat in the afternoon. smells like ... annihilation!
October 31, 2008 4:09 PM | Reply | Permalink
This whole strategy of McCain's to win Penn has to be one of the odder occurrences of this cycle. Was it to help down ticket races? Doesn't appear so. Was it ever a real possibility? Not even.
I can't wait to read the book.
October 31, 2008 4:12 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yeah as tosh said upthread - McLame hasn't been even within reach in Penn forever.
It was always pretty fucking weird for strategy but then that's what happens when you are making it up as you go -
October 31, 2008 4:18 PM | Reply | Permalink
No game at all.
October 31, 2008 4:38 PM | Reply | Permalink
no math skilz
October 31, 2008 5:28 PM | Reply | Permalink
Must be that vintage 2006 Rovian math.
October 31, 2008 7:58 PM | Reply | Permalink
I think it is simply that he didn't have any good options. With VA and CO moving away from him so decisively, he had to take a shot at a big blue state. PA was the only one within spitting distance (or so he thought).
October 31, 2008 4:19 PM | Reply | Permalink
Plus, he had to defend Ohio and with PA being right next door, it was something of a natural....in a desperate sort of way.
October 31, 2008 4:22 PM | Reply | Permalink
It was his only choice. Obama was running up the numbers in Virginia, Colorado and New Mexico all through early voting.
PA has no early voting, so McCain's ONLY choice was to hope for a massive comeback in PA and to somehow hold on to all the other Bush states.
At worst, PA will be a 5 point win for Obama.
October 31, 2008 4:21 PM | Reply | Permalink
Or more likely, PA won't matter.
October 31, 2008 4:24 PM | Reply | Permalink
In fact, the scenario I've been dreaming of is that by the time CST polls close and projections in those states are made (factoring in WA, CA and HI) 270 will already have been surpassed and we can start drinking early.
October 31, 2008 5:49 PM | Reply | Permalink
Fuck. I have a presentation to give Wednesday. I can't drink.
Unfair.
October 31, 2008 8:06 PM | Reply | Permalink
I agree with what you're saying, but the entire thing seems so random, whatever they use for a justification!
October 31, 2008 4:37 PM | Reply | Permalink
Five word summary of the McCain campaign as of today:
GraspGraspGraspGraspGrasp
I stand and cheer at the spectacle. McCain deserves to be the new record holder in Electoral losses after the way he's debased the electoral process.
October 31, 2008 4:19 PM | Reply | Permalink
I fervently hope we can win the whole Big 10 territory.
My only doubts are with Indiana.
October 31, 2008 4:22 PM | Reply | Permalink
Josh says Lawrence Eagleburger was on Fox apologizing for saying Palin isn't qualified. I find that ridiculous, you cannot take back words already said.
October 31, 2008 4:23 PM | Reply | Permalink
Why should he apologize for saying the truth anyway??? Shame on him.
October 31, 2008 4:24 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'm surprised that a total egotist like Eagleburger would tarnish his own reputation by trying to spin back his own words.
Every time I think to myself 'Now I've seen everything.' they go and show me something else I haven't seen before.
October 31, 2008 4:25 PM | Reply | Permalink
That is so true.
October 31, 2008 4:27 PM | Reply | Permalink
"Every time I think to myself 'Now I've seen everything.' they go and show me something else I haven't seen before."
Very true. This is the exact reason I am almost counting on at least one more off-the-charts gaffe by the McCain-Palin campaign before the 4th.
October 31, 2008 4:30 PM | Reply | Permalink
Word.
I wonder who yelled at him? I'm betting McLame himself.
October 31, 2008 4:26 PM | Reply | Permalink
I think you have that right Tena.
October 31, 2008 4:27 PM | Reply | Permalink
He broke a Republican commandment. Thou shalt not speak the truth!
October 31, 2008 4:29 PM | Reply | Permalink
He broke two: Thou shalt not speak evil about a fellow Republican.
October 31, 2008 4:33 PM | Reply | Permalink
Too late for an apology -- in his Obama endorsement today, Ken Duberstein said Eagleburger's comments about Palin were spot on.
October 31, 2008 4:54 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yeah, I loved the "Maoist self-criticism" description.
Still just a tad anxious about PA, but any polls that show up over the weekend with O 7 or more ahead will pretty much put my lingering doubts to rest. I really do feel as if the momentum began shifting on Wednesday, even before the infomercial ran, and that it will be strong enough to rebuff anything--even a slew of 527 Wright ads. Still, I gave more $$ last night.
October 31, 2008 4:27 PM | Reply | Permalink
Can't find any news on Eagleburger apologizing. A link anyone?
October 31, 2008 4:29 PM | Reply | Permalink
Can't find any news on Eagleburger apologizing. A link anyone?
October 31, 2008 4:30 PM | Reply | Permalink
Just some more of that First Amendment action Palin was talking about.
You betcha!
October 31, 2008 4:31 PM | Reply | Permalink
You notice how the Repugs volunteered to SUSPEND the First Amendment when were attacked on 9-11 and now they claim Democrats and the media are taking away their First Amendment rights?
October 31, 2008 4:33 PM | Reply | Permalink
Hypocrisy: It's not just for breakfast anymore!
October 31, 2008 4:36 PM | Reply | Permalink
Hilarious! Still can't figure out WHY the lower class dummies wanted their First Amendment rights taken away, like it was some sort of patriotic sacrifice. You have a right to free speech, as long as you agree with George Bush and Dick Cheney.
October 31, 2008 4:39 PM | Reply | Permalink
So when do we repeal the 'patriot my ass' act?
There ought to be a purge of every doublespeak law too. Blue skies? I'm having a brain freeze--there's gotta be at least 6 other ones.
October 31, 2008 5:23 PM | Reply | Permalink
Here are a few:
Clear Skies Act
Healthy Forests Act
No Child Left Behind Act
Help America Vote Act
October 31, 2008 6:01 PM | Reply | Permalink
You notice how the Repugs volunteered to SUSPEND the First Amendment when were attacked on 9-11 and now they claim Democrats and the media are taking away their First Amendment rights?
October 31, 2008 4:34 PM | Reply | Permalink
Right from the start, the Bush-Cheney Regime ran that fascist trick on the country: we went to war to "protect our freedoms," cause the turrists "hate us for our freedoms" but in order to be safe from the turrists, we have to surrender our freedoms.
Every fascist dictator in history has done this same thing - that's where Orwell got it -
October 31, 2008 4:42 PM | Reply | Permalink
Tena:
I was in a van a few weeks after 9-11 at DFW and some redneck kept yelling at me that if we don't suspend free speech the country's safety was at stake. Gawd, I hate those folks!
October 31, 2008 4:50 PM | Reply | Permalink
Who cares about polling data when it nothing more than a definite maybe who's going to win.
What I'd really like to see it how many people have already voted - early and absentee - state by state. And since most states know how many registered voters they have on their voting rolls, it would be interesting to see how many people have already decided, party affiliation and, if possible, real exit polling data on comments from voters.
Sorry if I'm making sense at this late stage in the game.
October 31, 2008 4:39 PM | Reply | Permalink
beetle, go here......
http://elections.gmu.edu/early_vote_2008.html
October 31, 2008 4:43 PM | Reply | Permalink
Thanks!
October 31, 2008 4:44 PM | Reply | Permalink
But, but, but...
... over at No Quarter they are telling me that PA is a dead heat. Surely they could not be wrong about that?
October 31, 2008 4:59 PM | Reply | Permalink
No Quarter: The site to go to when Ace of Spades is too conventional for you.
October 31, 2008 5:07 PM | Reply | Permalink
Still waiting for that whitey tape from them.
October 31, 2008 5:12 PM | Reply | Permalink
Is it possible that McWhatever knows something we don't? Like that somehow the GOP is going to steal the Penn vote?
October 31, 2008 5:16 PM | Reply | Permalink
Apparently, Gov. Nannook of the North doesn't just think that her First Amendment rights are under threat, she believes that if the press are a,llowed to criticize politicians without let or hindrance, everybody's FA rights are under threat. The mind fucking boggles at the sheer stupidity and willful ignorance of this wretched woman. Perhaps even she's heard of a fellow named Jefferson. He had some thoughts on a free press:
The thought of this poisonously stupid woman in any public office should fill every American with horror. The sooner she's relegated to reading the local weather on KOLD-Radio Nome, the better. Un-fucking-believable.
October 31, 2008 5:20 PM | Reply | Permalink
You mean Governor Nanookie of the North.
October 31, 2008 5:37 PM | Reply | Permalink
"The answer: Not in any way to speak of"
Well, that's not true. The lines are both moving in McCain's direction. If there were a dramatic swing, you might not even see it until after it happened. If he pushed a little harder, who knows? Those numbers might swing into MoE country.
I still don't think he'll win it, but his efforts clearly are having an effect.
October 31, 2008 5:33 PM | Reply | Permalink
HA, ha!
October 31, 2008 6:40 PM | Reply | Permalink
Seems to me that Obama is pretty comfortably at 273 electoral votes -- Colorado, Iowa, NM added to Kerry states. 286 if you give Obama Virginia already. Ohio, Florida, NC, and Nevada would just be gravy.
In other words, barring a shocking turnaround in at least one state, McCain is already toast. It seems like Colorado might realistically be McCain's best chance in Obama states -- but, considering how many people there have already voted, very slim indeed. It doesn't have the racist or elderly factor of Pennsylvania, but it's a considerably more republican leaning state in general.
Honestly, I think it's popular vote that will have me most nervous on Tuesday. The first black guy could use something better than a squeaker. I think the chances of McCain taking the electoral contest are pretty remote.
October 31, 2008 6:41 PM | Reply | Permalink
I find it impossible to believe that anyone who has actually stuidied the electoral polling map at http://www.electoral-vote.com/ can devine a scenario in which McCain wins critical states and or Obama loses critical states that could result in a McCain victory. There are numerous realistic scenarios in which Obama can win, but the only scenarios that I can come up with in which McCain wins would require him to win MO, IN, OH, PA, VA, NC and FL. If Obama wins either OH, PA, VA, NC or FL, McCain can't win.
October 31, 2008 7:44 PM | Reply | Permalink
Good news from York, Friday. We spent the day and attended the Palin "rally". In town, and in Lancaster and Reading, we talked to a lot of pissed-off working people who aren't buying the McBullshit this time. The rally, if it can be called that, was sparsely attended, dispirited, lacking energy, enthusiasm, pure Repub boilerplate served up in a style that clearly embarrassed even some supporters among the 600-750 on hand. About 1/4 of the crowd were there out of curiosity or because they were dragged. Never saw a crowd leave an event so quickly. Confirmed this with the t-shirt/button vendors, who say the PA momentum, what there was, died about ten days ago.
If York is any indication, PA is solid for Obama.
November 1, 2008 7:30 PM | Reply | Permalink