These @#$$%@ polls are killing me!

Eric:

As always, your headlines need a LOT of work. For the love of G-d, one poll result from one outfit does NOT mean McCain "gains steam".

Please, please, stop this.

So according to Sarah Palin, if I'm hearing this right, Bill Ayers is a bad guy and Eric Rudolph is an okay dude.

She was very upset for having to answer the question of what a terrorist is, turning her head and letting out a sigh of disgust. Then she refused to be critical of her base, the same base who thinks murdering abortion doctors is some sort of act of righteous justice, and just danced around the question.

CHECK THIS OUT.

The girl admits to making up the story about the attack...details coming.

http://kdka.com/

Now, now. Don't let's pile on here. I mean any aspirant to the MSM ranks has to demonstrate a facility for cherry-picking poll numbers to make a Presidential race look a lot closer than it actually is. Sure, it's not qualitatively different (or any less transparent) than Drudge trumpeting a McCain 'Comeback' about ten days ago, but the guy has to make an effort, f'r cryin' out loud.

I mean, you think he wants to write up poll results for TPM the rest of his life?

Just a gut a feeling, these polls are more close to reality than Insider Adv poll showing Obama leading in GA or Quinnipiac poll showing a 10+ Obama lead in OH.

I'll say it again, I think we're in a closer election than some of the polls suggest.

Win VA. Win PA. Win. Simple. Rest is hype. Obama will run close but may not win too many other red states.

I'm avoiding as much undesirable news as I can, but also have a feeling we're getting too giddy in the TPMland and other blogs, which scares the hellauvtame as well.

I look at Florida as dessert--you may get it, you may not. If you do, it will be sweet, but you can't count on it.

The great thing is that McCain is having to work his ass off for states that should've been his for the taking.

But Obama's competitive in all of them.

Please. These Strategic Vision polls are crap.

1)They won't provide any demographics on the web site announcing these results.

2)All 4 states show Palin with the highest net favorability ratings of all 4 candidates

BTW. Hi, everybody!

Eric-

"Gains steam" is a loaded phrase. It implies that McCain had momentum and is building upon it. A single set of slightly outlying polls from a single pollster does not mean that McCain is "gaining steam."

Even if his gains in these polls were reflected by other pollsters, it would represent a shift in momentum, not a "building" of it. Until these results are reflected more broadly, they probably have a lot more to do with the pollsters methodology and sampling than with any shift in the campaign dynamic.

Admittedly that makes for a longer headline, but...

look at the favor-ability rating of Sarah Palin in the poll to find out if the pollster could be trusted or not.

in FL, PA,and Ohio she has 49% favorability just as high as Obama....... and her favorability ration is higher then her unfavourability rating......... when was the last time that was true.

This is a moral booster poll for the GOP and this pollster is taking one for the team.

Eric WHY post these friggin polls?

Yeah they are believable alright
Obama has lower approval ratings than the pig Palin
there samples are correct ....NOT
Eric did I tell you Hillary lost the primary!

these polls don't upset me. Obama (and therefore the country) is in great shape for a smashing election victory.

but if McCain is gaining ground, we should consider that the radio ads McCain and the RNC have put into heavy rotation are having their intended effect. something to pay attention to, I think.

Please, Eric/TPM:

It is irresponsible - just plain, old irresponsible to post as a "trend" ("steam" is a "trend" word)ONE poll result. And don't you find it suspect, Eric, that McCain is doing so much better in not one state - but 3??? Doesn't that make you stop and think that perhaps there are some methodological questions that can be asked????

Since this polling outfit doesn't post crosstabs, there is absolutely no way to evaluate its credibility. For example, Palin's favs/unfavs are out-of-line from MOST other polls. Why? Was there an oversampling of white, evangelical Christians?? (like another recent poll showing a "close" race). Who knows, since we don't have that info.

Every posting doesn't have to be 538, but geez, there are just some basic, quantitative literacy guidelines that should be used when reporting results.

BTW: Just common sense: Why would there have been a drastic turn-around in numbers?? LEt's think about this, Eric. What changed?? Palin's policy speech on special needs children?? McCain's sitdown with Brian Williams?? Maybe it was Powell's endorsement that sent equal amounts of people scurrying to Obama and from Obama??

All I ask is that people think before reporting results.

Why does this infuriate me on this particular day??

Josh Marshall rightly admonishes those news outlets who repeated (not reported)the assault/hoax Pittsburgh story.

The "steam" headline is the same sort of mindless, brainless - and ultimately cynical crap (can't think of a better word).

We MUST be better than this. This election/country/historical moment deserves better than this shit...

Just, please: stop it.

The issue I have with polls "closing the gap" is it gives McCain supporters hope. With Obama up by 10+ across the nation and in many "swing states" kills any hope for McCain and his supporters.

This is important because any polls showing positive McCain movement will encourage them. With Obama's lead continuing to grow it is a great discouragement and would lead, in my opinion, to less voters coming out to support McCain.

If you go to any sporting event in which "your team" is getting crushed, most of that teams fans leave before the game is ended. However, if their is a glimmer of hope, many fans will stay. Same with the polling showing any kind of "positive" trend for McCain.

On the other hand, Obama supporters seem electrified to go vote regardless of how much he is up on McCain. There is a real passion for people to get out and vote for Obama.

I don't know anything about "Strategic Vision", but it seems with this poll and the recent AP poll, the driver is to encourage McCain supporters. It almost seems like it is fixed, because as most polls show, the trendline is going more and more positive for Obama.

If McCain's supporters stay home that means more Democratic House and Senate members.