Polls: Dems Could Sweep House Rematches
A new round of SurveyUSA polls, commissioned by Roll Call, suggests that Democrats are poised to sweep those House races this year that are competitive rematches from 2006.
Some of these races are Democratic gains from 2006, in which candidates defeated Republican incumbents or picked up open seats. Some of them were Republican retentions that year, where the incumbents fended off challengers who are trying again this year. In all seven of these case, the Democrats are winning:
• IL-10: Democrat Dan Seals, who lost a race to GOP Rep. Mark Kirk, may be successful in riding Barack Obama's local coattails. The numbers: Seals 52%, Kirk 44%.
• IN-09: Rep. Baron Hill (D) has faced GOPer Mike Sodrel in every race since 2002. Hill narrowly won in 2002, then Sodrel won in 2004, then Hill came back and defeated Sodrel in 2006. The numbers now: Hill 53%, Sodrel 38%.
• NH-01: Freshman Rep. Carol Shea-Porter (D) defeated Republican incumbent Jeb Bradley in a huge upset in 2006, and Bradley never really stopped running. The numbers in this poll: Shea-Porter 50%, Bradley 41%.
• NY-29: Democrat Eric Massa, a Navy veteran and former military aide to Wes Clark, narrowly lost to Rep. Randy Kuhl (R) in 2006. The current numbers from SurveyUSA: Massa 51%, Kuhl 44%.
• NC-08: Democrat Larry Kissell lost after a recount in 2006 to Rep. Robin Hayes. The new poll: Kissell 49%, Hayes 41%.
• PA-04: Freshman Rep. Jason Altmire (D) defeated GOP Rep. Melissa Hart in an upset in 2006, and Hart is trying for a comeback. The new poll: Altmire 54%, Hart 42%.
• WI-08: Democratic physician and businessman Steven Kagen picked up this seat for the Democrats in an open-seat race against then-state House Speaker John Gard, in a 51%-49% race. Gard soon started running again. The new poll: Kagen 54%, Gard 43%.
If these numbers hold up through Election Day, it's going to be a long night for the House Republicans.
This is my only comment.
October 7, 2008 12:00 AM | Reply | Permalink
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October 7, 2008 3:18 AM | Reply | Permalink
None of them are even close... nice.
October 7, 2008 12:09 AM | Reply | Permalink
How sweet it is!
Still, things are going so well, I'm beginning to think it's all to good to be true.
October 7, 2008 12:15 AM | Reply | Permalink
You know, that's how I feel too, sometimes. We've been so close until I'm always waiting for the other shoe to drop.
But when I feel that way, I just know that I have to double down. I don't take my eye off the ball, but I don't want to be negative either. Just keep working hard!!
October 7, 2008 8:19 AM | Reply | Permalink
Love it!
October 7, 2008 12:21 AM | Reply | Permalink
Unfortunately, it looks like Paul Kanjorski is losing badly against Lew Barletta in PA-11. Barletta is most well known for a divisive "anti-illegal immigration" ordinance in Hazelton, PA and is straight out of the 2004 Rove playbook.
Kajorski, a quiet pro-life pro-seniors Dem, has battled some health issues and is down by ten points. He could be the only incumbent Dem running for re-election to lose, and he could lose badly. He needs some help, since he's not doing anything on his own. In fact, I emailed his campaign office three weeks ago offering to help and have never even received a reply.
October 7, 2008 12:44 AM | Reply | Permalink
It's moments like this that make me appreciate Idiotic all the more. As soon as I saw this, I immeduately thought 'This is excellent news!! For John McCain!!!'
October 7, 2008 1:40 AM | Reply | Permalink
Oh, La Comtesse D'Haussonville! That Ingres was one of my favorite paintings in the Frick Museum, despite the problem with her arm. . . . Just had to say it, because it brought me back 30 years when I lived in New York and was in love with a sweet New Zealander who lived not far from the Frick.
October 7, 2008 5:06 AM | Reply | Permalink
Another rematch is KY-3 (Louisville), in which Proud Liberal John Yarmuth is up double-digits over Smirky-fellator Anne Northup, whom he upset in 2006.
October 7, 2008 6:07 AM | Reply | Permalink
Five Myths of McCain (in Video)!
http://www.rollingstone.com/nationalaffairs/index.php/2008/10/03/five-myths-about-john-mccain/
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McCain Fudges HIs Navey Record
http://voices.washingtonpost.com/fact-checker/2008/10/mccain_fudges_his_navy_record.html
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China Bush Style: “We have been taught to fear and despise China as a communist threat. Simultaneously, our political leaders and the media perpetually preach the benefits of capitalism. Meanwhile the most clear and present threat from China is their capitalism. Made in China is the most published modern phrase. By investing the proceeds of their national productivity they have become the kings of capitalism and are now the primary source of goods worldwide. It is not their pretended politics of communism that we should be concerned about. We already have that here. We have been outsourced, out produced and our intellectual property is infringed, duplicated and returned to our shores by the containership load.” The Creditory System, Hari Heath
October 7, 2008 7:33 AM | Reply | Permalink
Woo-hoo! John Gard is losing!
That turd was speaker of the Assembly (our lower house) in Wisconsin. Imagine a cross between Bill Kristol and Tom DeLay. He helped take the state back decades (maybe a hundred years) in terms of good government.
There's a special circle of Hell for Gard and his ilk.
October 7, 2008 8:16 AM | Reply | Permalink
Great news for NH. Carol Shea-Porter promised to go to Washington and represent the bottom 99% of us - and she has.
October 7, 2008 9:11 AM | Reply | Permalink
Since a palindrome cannot be made of the name 'palin',,,,, well OK, but it's a nonsense word, which given all things is probably appropriate,,,,, how about some poetry?
A colleague sent this along this morning:
As most of you know, and plainly can see straight and tall, I am in love with poetry. It is life itself. Consider these gems~~~
"This is an impressive crowd: the Have's and Have-more's. Some people call you the elites. I call you my base."
- George W. Bush
=
"The poor have sometimes objected to being governed badly; the rich have always objected to being governed at all."
- G. K. Chesterton
=
"Every 10 years or so, the US needs to pick up some small, crappy little country and throw it against the wall, just to show the world we mean business."
- Michael Ledeen
Not really poems, you say? We must keep up with the times! Therefore I am grateful to my good friend, composer Jason Hartz, for pointing out the revelatory nature of this lustrous individual~~~
The Poetry of Sarah Palin
It's been barely six weeks since the arctic-fresh voice of Alaskan poet Sarah Heath Palin burst upon the lower 48. In campaign interviews, the governor, mother, and maverick GOP vice presidential candidate has chosen to bypass the media filter and speak directly to fans through her intensely personal verses, spoken poems that drill into the vagaries of modern life as if they were oil deposits beneath a government-protected tundra.
The poems collected here were compiled verbatim from only three brief interviews. So just imagine the work Sarah Palin could produce over the next four (or eight) years.
"On Good and Evil"
It is obvious to me
Who the good guys are in this one
And who the bad guys are.
The bad guys are the ones
Who say Israel is a stinking corpse,
And should be wiped off
The face of the earth.
That's not a good guy.
(To K. Couric, CBS News, Sept. 25, 2008)
"You Can't Blink"
You can't blink.
You have to be wired
In a way of being
So committed to the mission,
The mission that we're on,
Reform of this country,
And victory in the war,
You can't blink.
So I didn't blink.
(To C. Gibson, ABC News, Sept. 11, 2008)
"Haiku"
These corporations.
Today it was AIG,
Important call, there.
(To S. Hannity, Fox News, Sept. 18, 2008)
"Befoulers of the Verbiage"
It was an unfair attack on the verbiage
That Senator McCain chose to use,
Because the fundamentals,
As he was having to explain afterwards,
He means our workforce.
He means the ingenuity of the American.
And of course that is strong,
And that is the foundation of our economy.
So that was an unfair attack there,
Again based on verbiage.
(To S. Hannity, Fox News, Sept. 18, 2008)
"Secret Conversation"
I asked President Karzai:
"Is that what you are seeking, also?
"That strategy that has worked in Iraq?
"That John McCain had pushed for?
"More troops?
"A counterinsurgency strategy?"
And he said, "Yes."
(To K. Couric, CBS News, Sept. 25, 2008)
"Outside"
I am a Washington outsider.
I mean,
Look at where you are.
I'm a Washington outsider.
I do not have those allegiances
To the power brokers,
To the lobbyists.
We need someone like that.
(To C. Gibson, ABC News, Sept. 11, 2008)
"On the Bailout"
Ultimately,
What the bailout does
Is help those who are concerned
About the health care reform
That is needed
To help shore up our economy,
Helping the—
It's got to be all about job creation, too.
Shoring up our economy
And putting it back on the right track.
So health care reform
And reducing taxes
And reining in spending
Has got to accompany tax reductions
And tax relief for Americans.
And trade.
We've got to see trade
As opportunity
Not as a competitive, scary thing.
But one in five jobs
Being created in the trade sector today,
We've got to look at that
As more opportunity.
All those things.
(To K. Couric, CBS News, Sept. 25, 2008)
"Challenge to a Cynic"
You are a cynic.
Because show me where
I have ever said
That there's absolute proof
That nothing that man
Has ever conducted
Or engaged in,
Has had any effect,
Or no effect,
On climate change.
(To C. Gibson, ABC News, Sept. 11, 2008)
"On Reporters"
It's funny that
A comment like that
Was kinda made to,
I don't know,
You know ...
Reporters.
(To K. Couric, CBS News, Sept. 25, 2008)
"Small Mayors"
You know,
Small mayors,
Mayors of small towns—
Quote, unquote—
They're on the front lines.
(To S. Hannity, Fox News, Sept. 19, 2008)
October 7, 2008 9:11 AM | Reply | Permalink
Scott Harper in IL-13 is on the verge of sending 10 year incumbent Bush loving Judy Biggert back to her Hinsdale mansion. But thanks to Kos and Cook's love for Dan Seals it's been hard raising funds over the last week. All our donors are throwing money at Seals lately but frankly Scott has as good or and even better shot because Biggert is a much worse House rep than Kirk. Kirk is running away from Bush but not Biggert. She sat on the Financial Services Committee and fought against regulating banks and mortgage companies that led us into this mess.
It's always an uphill challenge the first time around, especially if you're not a national media and net darling. Scott made Feingold's Progressive Patriots list last week but apparently nobody even noticed. We need more cash for the stretch run.
If you have a few bucks please send some Scott's way. Every little bit helps:
http://www.actblue.com/page/markglowdollar
October 7, 2008 11:10 AM | Reply | Permalink
When I read the first paragraph, I thought "Great! Darcy Burner's finally taken a lead!" But her race in WA 8 was not among those polled.
October 7, 2008 12:00 PM | Reply | Permalink
Burner is still close but behind.
October 7, 2008 12:49 PM | Reply | Permalink