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Poll: Red State Of Montana Up For Grabs
In a possible new sign that the electoral map is swinging further to Barack Obama, a new Montana State University poll gives him a narrow lead in Montana, a state that has voted Dem only twice in the last 50 years.
The numbers: Obama 44%, McCain 40%, with a ±5% margin of error. The undecided number here is awfully high, and McCain could very well win this, but it does seem like the state is up for grabs. For example, McCain took a strong lead here in September, but a Research 2000 poll from this past weekend gave him a close lead of 49%-45%.
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MONTANA is now a toss-up! haha!
October 23, 2008 3:15 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yep...and AP says it's a 1 point national race...
October 23, 2008 3:29 PM | Reply | Permalink
Google "outlier."
And then check out Pollster's trendlines for Montana (several polls show a close race in Montana).
October 23, 2008 3:34 PM | Reply | Permalink
If I do, this Montana poll will be listed right above the AP one.
October 23, 2008 3:36 PM | Reply | Permalink
And then check out Pollster's trendlines for Montana (several polls show a close race in Montana).
October 23, 2008 3:39 PM | Reply | Permalink
Or, better yet, just look over at the right side of the page.
ARG (10/9) - McCain +5
RS2000 (10/19) - McCain +4
MUS (10/23)- Obama +4
October 23, 2008 3:41 PM | Reply | Permalink
I never said this poll was 100% accurate or that Obama would win Montana, just that it's a toss-up, and it is based on recent polling.
October 23, 2008 3:44 PM | Reply | Permalink
Your boy Nate at 538 only gives Obama a 7% shot at Montana... So even with his tilt it's hardley a "toss up."
October 23, 2008 3:44 PM | Reply | Permalink
Both Pollster and Real Clear Politics have it listed as a "toss-up."
What are you arguing about?
October 23, 2008 3:47 PM | Reply | Permalink
To be very fair, Silver has not fed this particular poll into his model yet, so that 7% figure is obsolete. It will likely change with the new data.
October 23, 2008 4:10 PM | Reply | Permalink
Hey Wallace, I think I hear your mom calling. She's found a whole bunch of pictures of Palin under your mattress and she's pissed!
Now run on home boy!
October 23, 2008 3:44 PM | Reply | Permalink
She's more pissed off, with having to clean the sheets!
October 23, 2008 4:54 PM | Reply | Permalink
And what is the polling like in your State of Denial?
October 23, 2008 3:35 PM | Reply | Permalink
When folks are losing elections badly, it's not surprising that they tend to get bitter and cling to outlying polls.
October 23, 2008 3:35 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'm sure that one is right and the 38 other polls over the last few weeks showing Obama with a 7-8 pt lead are all wrong. What color is the sky in your world?
October 23, 2008 3:38 PM | Reply | Permalink
Probably as close as Obama is to a 4 point lead in Montana...
October 23, 2008 3:39 PM | Reply | Permalink
Actually, Rasmussen had Obama ahead by 5 on July 1 and tied on July 29. ARG had McCain only 2 pts ahead on Sept 9 (the height of the convention bounce). The three previous October polls show McCain with a shrinking lead. The few polls showing McCain with big lead are the ones that have to be regarded as outliers. Given Montana's history (Democratic governor, two Democratic Senators and a Democratically controlled state Senate), I wouldn't count on this one.
October 23, 2008 3:57 PM | Reply | Permalink
Montana State U. 10/20 Obama +4
Research 2000 10/16 McCain +4
ARG 10/08 McCain +5
Rasmussen 10/01 McCain +8
Research 2000 09/24 McCain +13
CNN/Time 09/23 McCain +11
Rasmussen 09/08 McCain +11
October 23, 2008 4:03 PM | Reply | Permalink
You do realize you just succeeded in showing that Montana has been tightening over the past month.
October 23, 2008 4:07 PM | Reply | Permalink
Beat me to it - that's been a precipitous drop.
LOL!
October 23, 2008 4:11 PM | Reply | Permalink
Ignoring what I just said below, there does seem to be a trend.
October 23, 2008 4:28 PM | Reply | Permalink
Is AP poll your final refuge in replay mode?
Your enthusiasm for the AP poll speaks volumes...
October 23, 2008 3:41 PM | Reply | Permalink
Nope, just using it to prove a point.
October 23, 2008 3:47 PM | Reply | Permalink
What exactly is your point?
October 23, 2008 3:48 PM | Reply | Permalink
That this is a 10 point swing from the poll 3 days ago (that match the previous 2) and that it's probably as accurate as the AP national poll.
October 23, 2008 3:54 PM | Reply | Permalink
It's actually only an 8pt swing, but, yeah, that's a lot. But no one is saying Obama is absolutely going to win Montana or even that this poll is 100% accurate.
All I said was that Montana is a "toss up" and according to the leading 2 polling sites, it is.
October 23, 2008 4:00 PM | Reply | Permalink
Your argument would have merit if this poll changed its methodology since the last iteration. The AP Poll had evangelicals at 44% and drastically altered its likely voter model from the previous iteration (Dems were -6, Repubs, -1 (net change 5)).
So what were the changes in this poll that should make people less confident in the results? Or are you making an argument without facts?
October 23, 2008 4:12 PM | Reply | Permalink
He's arguing for the sake of arguing. He says Montana is not a toss-up, even though Pollster and RCP say it is, and to prove that Montana is strongly in McCain's column, he posts polls that show a strong movement toward Obama over the last month.
October 23, 2008 4:15 PM | Reply | Permalink
He may be doing that, but he does have a point in that this is just one poll. In interesting poll. An encouraging poll (well, to me, probably not SFC). But just one poll.
October 23, 2008 4:19 PM | Reply | Permalink
Of course it's just one poll, but as SFC so aptly pointed out, over the past month the state has been moving drastically toward Obama, which would make the state a "toss up," as was my original point. That’s all.
October 23, 2008 4:25 PM | Reply | Permalink
He's a desperate man looking for any rays of sunshine in a very cloudy sky.
October 23, 2008 4:24 PM | Reply | Permalink
It's okay. It's not your fault.
October 23, 2008 3:49 PM | Reply | Permalink
Will you be appearing as Exhibit A when Palin gives her big speech on special needs children?
October 23, 2008 3:53 PM | Reply | Permalink
LOL. Great response!
October 23, 2008 4:16 PM | Reply | Permalink
Never mind that the AP Washington Bureau chief is a flack for McCain.
October 23, 2008 3:53 PM | Reply | Permalink
How un-american of you to notice
October 23, 2008 4:10 PM | Reply | Permalink
Awww, it's just sooooo cute that you mentioned that poll!
Whatever you have to do to sleep at night, my man.
October 23, 2008 3:53 PM | Reply | Permalink
SFCWallace, NoQuarterUSA.net is over that way.
October 23, 2008 3:55 PM | Reply | Permalink
And just like that he's gone...
October 23, 2008 4:32 PM | Reply | Permalink
I mean we do need a few of these guys to play around with while the days pass.It's fun to have SF here. We should all go to freerepublic one day. I KNOW they aren't having much fun at the moment.
October 23, 2008 4:42 PM | Reply | Permalink
Since I live in Montana, I can tell you that McCain has NO ground game here, while Obama has offices all over and a BUNCH of motivated volunteers. I visited friends (wheat farmers) over the weekend in the town of Harlem (Population 900 +/-)up on the Hi Line along the Canadian border. Obama signs were everywhere, and there's a volunteer Obama office on the main street. This is about as rural as rural gets in Montana, but it seems the consensus is McCain is running off the rails, and Palin is an insulting joke (not the ha ha kind either). Montana women know a poser when they see one, and they certainly see one in Palin.
October 23, 2008 5:15 PM | Reply | Permalink
I love this tidbit from the poll:
"The highest support for drilling (100%) was found among individuals with a grade school
education, the least backing (35%) existed among interviewees with a post-graduate degree."
October 23, 2008 3:16 PM | Reply | Permalink
Lol. Im pretty sure 100% of them watch Faux News.
October 23, 2008 3:20 PM | Reply | Permalink
This is absolutely not true. The concentration of our population in MT is in the west. Thats where cities like, Helena, Missoula, and Butte are. These have been democratic strongholds forever. In fact, Montana has a higher average level of education than most states in this country. We get the same television, have a blue legislature, and have Brian Schweitzer as our governor (perhaps you remember his speech, right before Hillary's at the convention) The most interesting part of this poll, and perhaps why Obama is outdoing Mccain, is that Ron Paul garners 4.2 percent of the vote with 11.8% Republicans voting for him. Its a Ralph Nader effect here, just not the way we all remember.
October 23, 2008 3:37 PM | Reply | Permalink
As a general rule, this is the scenario all over the country.
If there is a class war going on, it's between urban and rural, apparently. Which is pretty damn weird for a country that is not covered with individual farms any more.
October 23, 2008 3:39 PM | Reply | Permalink
You mean the pro-America and anti-America parts of the country, don't you? :-))
October 23, 2008 4:01 PM | Reply | Permalink
Heh.
October 23, 2008 4:16 PM | Reply | Permalink
But it's not even that. There was a poll of rural voters nationwide that came out today. It had Obama 45 McCain 44.
October 23, 2008 4:27 PM | Reply | Permalink
I said "IF froglegs. I don't think there is a real culture war because the other side is very very small and increasingly unimportant.
And I'm really glad I'm finding that out more and more.
October 23, 2008 5:00 PM | Reply | Permalink
Where's the post about McCain/Palin explicitly calling out NYC and DC as elite havens in the NBC interview:
http://www.politico.com/blogs/bensmith/1008/Fake_America_located.html
October 23, 2008 3:18 PM | Reply | Permalink
If you go to MSNBC's web site it's on the front page right now. It's a 1:06 clip of what I'm imagining will be part of their story on tonight's broadcast.
October 23, 2008 3:32 PM | Reply | Permalink
Keep your eye on the clips over the next couple of nights. Last night Rachel M asked Brian Williams if the big story coming out of the interview was "no big gaffes". He didn't directly answer. He just said something like, "Well, as you know, we taped too much interview to show in one night. So we'll be playing the rest over the next couple of nights..."
October 23, 2008 3:40 PM | Reply | Permalink
Brian Williams is full of himself. Often it's hard to discern who's interviewing whom. Katie Couric redeemed herself though.
October 23, 2008 3:45 PM | Reply | Permalink
He's a self-important ass.
Couric is the surprise of the campaign AFAIC.
Imagine little Katie turning into a real journalist - and if she'd keep that up she might really start to be taking seriously. She's good at it because she keeps digging with that sympathetic smile on her face.
October 23, 2008 4:28 PM | Reply | Permalink
I know somebody there, good excuse to call him and make sure he gets his lazy ass to the polls . . .
October 23, 2008 3:23 PM | Reply | Permalink
Hmmm... I wonder if Steve Schmidt prepared a Montana strategy?
Here's my guess to his response about Montana being in play..
Summer 2008:
Montana?
HAHAHAHAHA! That is just TOO FUNNY!
October 2008:
Really, Montana?
Oh shit.
October 23, 2008 3:24 PM | Reply | Permalink
OK Montana,,,,, run the rascals out!
October 23, 2008 3:26 PM | Reply | Permalink
OT. The latest from Intrade: pulling for a McCain win is a worse bet than expecting we'll avoid a recession.
October 23, 2008 3:31 PM | Reply | Permalink
Not that surprising. People think of Montana as a Red state because they generally vote for Republican presidential candidates, but they've got a Democratic governorc two Democratic Senators, and their state Senate is controlled by Democrats. This one is ripe for being picked off.
October 23, 2008 3:34 PM | Reply | Permalink
I totally agree!
October 23, 2008 3:43 PM | Reply | Permalink
Up with Montana boys, down with McCain! Good ol' 'bama, out for a victory!
Well, the poll was done at MSU not at UofM but you'd never catch a Missoula girl singing the Bobcat fight song...
October 23, 2008 3:38 PM | Reply | Permalink
O's even up in the rural vote now. People everywhere are finally saying enough is enough!
October 23, 2008 3:42 PM | Reply | Permalink
We've got a landslide building out there folks...NOW GET OUT THE VOTE...shame people, canvass people, CALL PEOPLE
The SF Obama campaign has no fewer than 3 major phone banks operating this weekend or you can use Neighbor-to-neighbor at www.barackobama.com
October 23, 2008 3:43 PM | Reply | Permalink
it is possible the 3rd party candidates will do well here, most likely taking away from McCain. Plus, Montana has gotten several visits from Obama, who has an aggressive ground campaign going on here. The turnout operation here is helping, in addition to Powell's endorsement. I'd give it more than 7%, but not above 50...
October 23, 2008 3:52 PM | Reply | Permalink
A statement from John McCain:
"There is no chance that Bracak Obama will win this All-American state. There is no doubt I will be victorious in Montana on November 4th. Oopsie I poopied my pants."
Good God it was an awkward press conference!
October 23, 2008 3:54 PM | Reply | Permalink
Wow, Montana...
Come on, Texas!
(I can dream, can't I?)
October 23, 2008 4:00 PM | Reply | Permalink
You and me both.
*sigh*
October 23, 2008 4:02 PM | Reply | Permalink
Believe it.
October 23, 2008 4:06 PM | Reply | Permalink
Please God yes.
October 23, 2008 4:29 PM | Reply | Permalink
Come on, surging reality-based majority....
October 23, 2008 4:26 PM | Reply | Permalink
Don't forget that Ron Paul is on the ballot in Montana...it has been said that he can get as high as 8% in this state (he finished 2nd in the primary here to Romney)
October 23, 2008 4:08 PM | Reply | Permalink
How come? Can you explian how Ron Paul is on the ballot? Is it only Montana or any other state?
October 23, 2008 4:11 PM | Reply | Permalink
Ron Paul is the Constitution Party candidate. A lot of right wingers in Montana will vote for Ron Paul to send a message to the National Party. A couple of elections ago a Democrat (Windham) won a seat in the State Legislature in a very conservative district. It was a three-way race between Windham, a Republican and the Constitution party candidate. Windham won by a whisker in a multiple recount that was finally decided by the Montana Supreme Court. Two years later, the Republicans sat out the election and the Constitution party candidate (Rick Jore) won handily.
Everywhere you drive in Montana you see a lot of Ron Paul signs--these folks are serious. I don't think any of the pollsters have really captured the Ron Paul backlash vote.
I think it could be especially high given McCain's poor showing nationally. The Montana conservatives will find it easy to vote Ron Paul if they know that McCain doesn't have a chance.
October 23, 2008 4:51 PM | Reply | Permalink
Thank you.
October 23, 2008 4:58 PM | Reply | Permalink
Good point. Will Ron Paul hurt Obama, McCain, or both? I could see it going both ways, though perhaps more detrimental to McCain. What do y'all think?
October 23, 2008 4:35 PM | Reply | Permalink
Go read the Constitution Party Platform (if you have a strong stomach and time to spare) and then see if you are still trying to guess whether the Ron Paul votes will Obama or McCain.
http://www.constitutionparty.com/party_platform.php
October 23, 2008 4:56 PM | Reply | Permalink
Dang, should have read "...whether Ron Paul votes will hurt Obama or McCain"
October 23, 2008 4:59 PM | Reply | Permalink
Holy Hannah Montana!
This is for the people who like to bash Ohio, but since my home computer is STILL in the shop, any comments I make on the old threads are not seen. Please bear with me:
Why are all Ohio polls showing Obama ahead automatically discounted, but any showing McSame ahead are exalted by people here and by Chuck Todd?
WE'RE GOING TO WIN OHIO!
I GAR-ON-FUCKING-TEE IT!
OK, now I feel better.
October 23, 2008 4:10 PM | Reply | Permalink
If you can vote Schweitzer, you can vote Obama.
October 23, 2008 4:20 PM | Reply | Permalink
Let me say this in all seriousness: why didn't we nominate a black man sooner?
October 23, 2008 4:28 PM | Reply | Permalink
Because the qualification isn't that he's black, just like the qualification for Hillary isn't just that she has tits and ovaries.
If that was true, Palin would be a shoo-in.
October 23, 2008 4:29 PM | Reply | Permalink
The best candidate out of all that ran just happened to be African American. Odd how that works out in America hmmm?
October 23, 2008 4:49 PM | Reply | Permalink
Trust me, people in Montana aren't voting for Obama because he's black.
October 23, 2008 5:54 PM | Reply | Permalink
Co-sign. Its all about having the RIGHT candidate, whatever the color, gender, etc.
October 23, 2008 4:31 PM | Reply | Permalink
Duh. I intended to reply (follow-up) to TenaX. Even the computer challenged support Obama!
October 23, 2008 4:36 PM | Reply | Permalink
Poor McCain! Now he has to fight for itsy bitsy Montana. What's next? Wyoming?! LOL
October 23, 2008 7:11 PM | Reply | Permalink